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systems thinking
@JonJagger
jon@jaggersoft.com
jonjagger.blogspot.co.uk

Sunday, 2 March 14
thinking about systems as
dynamic, evolving patterns of
interaction and feedback

Sunday, 2 March 14
it is an axiom that
influence is both a
cause and an effect.
nothing is ever
influenced in just
one direction.
Peter's Axiom

Sunday, 2 March 14
to say that certain
events are causally
connected is only a
clumsy way of saying
they are features of
the same event

Sunday, 2 March 14
The Causation Fallacies
every effect
has a cause
and we can tell
which is which.
Jerry Weinberg

Sunday, 2 March 14
cause

effect
?

defects

Sunday, 2 March 14

lateness
cause

effect
?

defects

Sunday, 2 March 14

lateness
Sunday, 2 March 14
Scrum Buses

http://jonjagger.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/scrum-buses.html

Sunday, 2 March 14
feedback

Sunday, 2 March 14
XP

values

?

.o.r.g.
.o.m.n.c.t.o.
.i.p.i.i.y
.e.d.a.k

Sunday, 2 March 14
XP

values

Courage
Communication
Simplicity
Feedback

Sunday, 2 March 14
Scrum Guide

"

Scrum Teams deliver products iteratively and
incrementally, maximizing opportunities for feedback.

Sprint Review: ... the presentation of the
Increment is intended to elicit feedback and foster
collaboration.

"

Sunday, 2 March 14
just calling it
"feedback" doesn't
mean that it has
actually fed back

Sunday, 2 March 14
the amount of feedback
built into living organisms
differs by many orders of
magnitude from the
amount we build into
man-made systems.
John Gall

Sunday, 2 March 14
there is not one living
creature that lacks that
integrated, total unification
through feedback.
John Gall

Sunday, 2 March 14
compared to a frog
or a salamander, our
biggest manmade
systems seem like
simple wind-up toys.
John Gall

Sunday, 2 March 14
ignoring feedback merely
means that the system will
eventually experience a
massive unpleasant surprise
(rather than a small
unpleasant surprise)
John Gall

Sunday, 2 March 14
it may look like
a crisis, but it's
only the end of
an illusion

Sunday, 2 March 14
change

Sunday, 2 March 14
blood

Sunday, 2 March 14

sugar
Sunday, 2 March 14
Sunday, 2 March 14
is

Sunday, 2 March 14
is

Sunday, 2 March 14
Hyperglycemia

causes

is

Sunday, 2 March 14
Hyperglycemia
senses
causes

is

Sunday, 2 March 14

pancreas
Hyperglycemia
senses

causes
pancreas

causes

insulin

is

Sunday, 2 March 14
Hyperglycemia
senses

causes
pancreas

causes

insulin
senses
is
liver &
muscles

Sunday, 2 March 14
Hyperglycemia
senses

causes
pancreas

causes

causes

insulin
glycogen
senses

is
liver &
muscles

Sunday, 2 March 14
Hyperglycemia
senses

causes
pancreas

causes

causes

insulin
glycogen
senses

is
liver &
muscles

Sunday, 2 March 14
Hyperglycemia
senses

causes
pancreas

causes

causes

insulin
glycogen
senses

is

causes

Hypoglycemia

Sunday, 2 March 14

liver &
muscles
Hyperglycemia
senses

causes
pancreas

causes

causes

insulin
glycogen
senses

is

causes

liver &
muscles

senses

Hypoglycemia
pancreas

Sunday, 2 March 14
Hyperglycemia
senses

causes
pancreas

causes

causes

insulin
glycogen
senses

is

causes

liver &
muscles

senses

Hypoglycemia

causes
pancreas

Sunday, 2 March 14

glucagon
Hyperglycemia
senses

causes
pancreas

causes

causes

insulin
glycogen
senses

is
senses
causes

liver &
muscles

senses

Hypoglycemia

causes
pancreas

Sunday, 2 March 14

glucagon
Hyperglycemia
senses

causes
pancreas

causes

causes

insulin
glycogen
senses

is

causes
causes

senses
liver &
muscles

senses

Hypoglycemia

causes
pancreas

Sunday, 2 March 14

glucagon
Le Chatelier's Principle
systems tend
to oppose
their own
proper function.
Henri Louis Le Chatelier

Sunday, 2 March 14
all change can be
understood as the
effort to maintain
some constancy...
...and all constancy
as maintained
through change.

Sunday, 2 March 14
the battle over food and
territory between two
species is only one half of
the story...
...the battle is a means
or process of generating,
maintaining, and
stabilizing an ecosystem
Gregory Bateson
Steps to an Ecology of Mind (I think)

Sunday, 2 March 14
evolution
is always
co-evolution
Sunday, 2 March 14
what is involved is
not simply survival
of the fittest
but survival of the
fitting-in-est

Sunday, 2 March 14
Sunday, 2 March 14
Sunday, 2 March 14
Sunday, 2 March 14
Sunday, 2 March 14
Sunday, 2 March 14
Sunday, 2 March 14
slack

Sunday, 2 March 14
moving from 75%
to 95% utilization
increases variability
by 25 times

Sunday, 2 March 14
flow
utilization

Sunday, 2 March 14

75%

95%
that which
optimizes one part
of the system
necessarily
undermines the
system as a whole.

Sunday, 2 March 14
whole

Sunday, 2 March 14

>

parts
Pu239
Sunday, 2 March 14
2kg + 3kg == 5kg

Sunday, 2 March 14
5kg + 5kg ==

Sunday, 2 March 14

?
Sunday, 2 March 14
in medio stats virtus

Sunday, 2 March 14
The Law of
Unintended Consequences

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobra_effect

Sunday, 2 March 14
systems thinking
@JonJagger
jon@jaggersoft.com
jonjagger.blogspot.co.uk

Sunday, 2 March 14

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Systems thinking