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SUSTAINABLE CHINA?



SAM Forum, 27.01.2009
Dirk Jehmlich, General Manager Asia-Pacific                        >> 1
                                              www.trendbuero.com
THE WORLD IS URBANIZING.
CHINA FASTEST.


Sustainable China?                        >> 2
                     www.trendbuero.com
IN 2025 CHINA WILL HAVE
221 CITIES WITH A
POPULATION OF MORE THAN
1 MILLION. EUROPE HAS 35
TODAY.




                                                 McK, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 3
                     www.trendbuero.com
800 MILLION CHINESE WILL
LIVE IN CITIES BY 2020.
930 MILLION BEFORE 2030.




                                                 UN, 2004
Sustainable China?                        >> 4
                     www.trendbuero.com
700 MILLION OF THEM WILL




                                                 German Center for Industry and Trade, Shanghai, 2007
HAVE WESTERN SPENDING
CAPACITY BY 2015?


Sustainable China?                        >> 5
                     www.trendbuero.com
THEY WANT TO MOVE OUT
FROM THEIR PARENTS INTO
BIGGER APARTMENTS, WORK
IN OFFICES AND DRIVE
THEIR OWN CARS.
Sustainable China?                        >> 6
                     www.trendbuero.com
MEANS…



Sustainable China?                        >> 7
                     www.trendbuero.com
40 BILLION SQM OF FLOOR
SPACE WILL BE BUILT IN 5
MILLION BUILDINGS UNTIL
2025.




                                                 McK, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 8
                     www.trendbuero.com
50,000 OF THESE
BUILDINGS COULD BE
SKYSCRAPERS = 10 NEW
YORK CITIES




                                                 McK, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 9
                     www.trendbuero.com
THIS MEANS 1 NEW BEIJING
EVERY YEAR FOR 35 YEARS.
35 X BEIJING = 2 X THE
TOTAL BUILT VOLUME OF
CHINA.
Sustainable China?                        >> 10
                     www.trendbuero.com
5 BILLION SQM STREETS
WILL BE PAVED UNTIL 2025
= A TWO LANE ROAD 40 X
AROUND THE WORLD.




                                                  McK, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 11
                     www.trendbuero.com
TO HOST 140 MILLION CARS
ON THE ROADS BY 2020.




                                                  China Daily, 2004
Sustainable China?                        >> 12
                     www.trendbuero.com
BUT STILL, SHANGHAI’S
TRAFFIC WILL EXCEED ITS
ROAD CAPACITY THREE
TIMES.




                                                  China Daily, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 13
                     www.trendbuero.com
EVEN THOUGH 64% OF
PEOPLE RANK THE CURRENT
TRAFFIC SITUATION AS ‘BAD’




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
OR ‘VERY BAD’, 75% EXPECT
TO OWN A CAR IN 2020.
Sustainable China?                        >> 14
                     www.trendbuero.com
41% OF THOSE WHO NOW
TRAVEL BY NON-CAR
METHODS HOPE SOON TO BE
DRIVING. THOSE PRESENTLY




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
IN CARS INSIST THEY WILL
KEEP ON USING THEM.
Sustainable China?                        >> 15
                     www.trendbuero.com
BY 2050 CHINA WILL HAVE
ALMOST AS MANY CARS AS
THE ENTIRE WORLD HAS
TODAY.




                                                  Economist, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 16
                     www.trendbuero.com
TWO MILLION MORE CARS
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE TO
BEIJING'S ROADS BY 2012.




                                                  China Daily, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 17
                     www.trendbuero.com
THEY WILL NEED ANOTHER
60 SQ KM OF PARKING
SPACE = THE TOTAL AREA
WITHIN THE 2ND RING ROAD
AND AT LEAST 1.3 BILLION




                                                  China Daily, 2008
LITERS OF GAS EACH YEAR.
Sustainable China?                        >> 18
                     www.trendbuero.com
IT WILL BE DENSE. 17,150
PEOPLE PER SQKM IN
SHENZHEN; 13,400 IN




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
SHANGHAI; 11,500 IN
BEIJING.
Sustainable China?                        >> 19
                     www.trendbuero.com
URBAN EXPANSION IS
CONCENTRATED
IN A
MINORITY




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
OF CHINA.

Sustainable China?                        >> 20
                     www.trendbuero.com
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 21
                     www.trendbuero.com
SEPARATE IT FROM
CHINA AND YOU GET:


                     PEOPLE’S URBANITY OF CHINA




Sustainable China?                                >> 22
                            www.trendbuero.com
PUC AREA IS ONLY 1/3 OF
THE USA AND YET PUC’S
POPULATION IN 2020 WILL




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
BE MORE THAN 1.5 TIMES OF
(EUROPE + USA).
Sustainable China?                        >> 23
                     www.trendbuero.com
96% OF…
CHINA’S POPULATION,
CHINA’S GDP,




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
CHINA’S ARABLE LAND.

Sustainable China?                        >> 24
                     www.trendbuero.com
Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 26
                     www.trendbuero.com
THE EMERGENCE OF A
SINGLE MEGALOPOLIS OF
OVER 470 MILLION




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
INHABITANTS.

Sustainable China?                        >> 27
                     www.trendbuero.com
INHABITANTS = CONSUMERS




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 28
                     www.trendbuero.com
CONSUMERS CAUSE
CONSUMPTION.


Sustainable China?                        >> 29
                     www.trendbuero.com
CONSUMPTION CONSUMES
RESOURCES.


Sustainable China?                        >> 30
                     www.trendbuero.com
BUT WE ARE LIVING IN AN
AGE OF RESOURCE SCARCITY.


Sustainable China?                        >> 31
                     www.trendbuero.com
CHINA OFFERS GREAT
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALL
INDUSTRIES. BUT THESE
OPPORTUNITIES ARE TIED TO
SERIOUS CHALLENGES.
Sustainable China?                        >> 32
                     www.trendbuero.com
AGRICULTURAL GROUND




                                                  China State Environmental Protection Administration, 2007
AFFECTED BY ACID RAIN
NOW ACCOUNTS FOR 40% OF
CHINA’S TOTAL USABLE
LAND.
Sustainable China?                        >> 33
                     www.trendbuero.com
HEAVY METAL-TAINTED
FOODS AMOUNT TO 12




                                                  Samsung Economic Research Institute, Beijing Office, 2008
MILLION TONS PER ANNUM,
WITH ECONOMIC DAMAGE
AMOUNTING TO 20 BILLION
YUAN.
Sustainable China?                        >> 34
                     www.trendbuero.com
POLLUTION HAS MADE




                                                  Samsung Economic Research Institute, Beijing Office, 2008
CANCER THE NATION’S NO. 1
KILLER. LUNG CANCER
CASES GREW UP 18.6% IN
2006 FROM 2005.
Sustainable China?                        >> 35
                     www.trendbuero.com
ECONOMIC DAMAGES FROM
AIR AND WATER POLLUTION
TOTALED 781 BILLION YUAN
IN 2007.




                                                  World Bank, 2007
Sustainable China?                        >> 36
                     www.trendbuero.com
SOCIAL COST OF POLLUTION
NOW AMOUNTS TO 8-13% OF




                                                  Pan Yue, Vice Chairman of the CNEMC, 2006
GDP.


Sustainable China?                        >> 37
                     www.trendbuero.com
STILL…



Sustainable China?                        >> 38
                     www.trendbuero.com
CHINESE CONSUMERS WILL
DOUBLE THEIR FOOD
CONSUMPTION UNTIL 2020.
CHINA WILL ACCOUNT FOR




                                                  http://www.foodnavigator.com
1/3 OF WORLD MEAT
CONSUMPTION.
Sustainable China?                        >> 39
                     www.trendbuero.com
48% WANT TO COMMUTE BY
CAR.




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 40
                     www.trendbuero.com
63% WANT TO OWN A CAR.




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 41
                     www.trendbuero.com
75% DREAM OF HAVING A
GARDEN.




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 42
                     www.trendbuero.com
79% A SPACIOUS HOME.




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
Sustainable China?                        >> 43
                     www.trendbuero.com
AND 90% WANT TO LIVE IN
A SUSTAINABLE




                                                  Dynamic City Foundation, 2008
ENVIRONMENT.


Sustainable China?                        >> 44
                     www.trendbuero.com
BUT…



Sustainable China?                        >> 45
                     www.trendbuero.com
s
                                                 fish’
                                             the
                                        h
                                  e bot
                                v
                        ’t ha             paw
                     an               r’s eat it too.
                   c
                              e beaae and
              You          th k
                     andt have your c
               tail can’ u
                     , yo
                 – or




Sustainable China?                                                               >> 46
                                                            www.trendbuero.com
THIS IS WHERE
SUSTAINABILITY COMES
INTO THE GAME.


Sustainable China?                        >> 47
                     www.trendbuero.com
Key Questions                      Sustainability 2019                            Drivers

 –What if you built the whole mass   –Politics: China will be in transition   –Sustainability in China is crucial for
  of Western Europe in 20 years       from centralized China to a United       national security.
  and 400 million urbanites then      States of China.                            sustainability = peace
  move in?
                                     –Economics: Sustainability will be       –Environmental pollution consumes
                                      key to sustain economic growth and       a serious share of economic growth
 –What are impacts on brands,         increase living standards.                  sustainability = profit
  products and services?
                                     –Society: China will be dominated by     –Resource scarcity and wastage of
                                      a urban middle class.                    resources risk global competiveness
 –What are emerging challenges                                                    sustainability = growth
                                     –Technology: China will be a global
  and opportunities for you?
                                                                              –High-speed urbanization
                                      powerhouse for R&D and production
                                      and a lab for new technical and             sustainability = future
 –What does it mean for Europe if     social innovations.
  R&D, production and
                                     –Consumption: Shift from Made in
  consumption all shift to Asia?
                                      China to Made for China.
                                     –Resources: Massive demand for raw
 –What are quick wins of
                                      materials, energy, skills and food
  sustainable behaviour for each
                                      outpace supply
  stakeholder?

 –How can planet earth deal with a
  billion new middle class
  consumers (long-term
  achievements)?




Sustainable China?                                                                                              >> 48
                                                                               www.trendbuero.com
Key Questions                       Sustainability 2019                             Drivers

 –How will consumption patterns                                                  –Economic growth: GDP will fourfold
                                      Consumption Pattern
  be affected by shifts of wealth?                                                until 2020; EUR 74 billion
                                      –Qualities: efficiency, identity,           investment for housing &
                                       design, authenticity, quality,             infrastructure
 –What is the impact of                comfort, convenience
                                                                                 –Urbanization: 400 mio new
  immigration on market demand?
                                      –Behaviours: access, value for              urbanites by 2020
                                       money, diversification
 –How will increased global                                                      –Migration: 96% of China’s GDP is
  distribution of talent change the                                               consumed in east China
  corporate landscape?                Migration                                  –Weak social security: 300 to 600
                                      –Global: Talent Tango – learn in the        billion USD by 2020 (best case USD
 –Will we have climate migrants?                                                  400 per capita)
                                       West, earn in the East
                                                                                 –Growing income: 700 mio.
                                      –National: from west to east; rollover
 –Will walls be built up or will                                                  consumers with western spending
                                       migration
  migration flow more freely?                                                     capacity in 2015
                                      –Climate: soil erosion, deforestation
                                                                                 –Environment: 130 mio. hectares of
                                       and desertification will force millions
 –What are corresponding                                                          of northern China’s arable land is
                                       to move
  investment opportunities?                                                       shrinking; EUR 39 billion
                                      –Barriers: barrier-free migration for       investment for ecological and
                                       educated workforce only                    environmental projects
                                                                                 –Individualization: 79% of young
                                                                                  Chinese assume to live without
                                                                                  parents by 2020




Social Mobility in China                                                                                        >> 49
                                                                                  www.trendbuero.com
Thank you!
Hamburg | Beijing



Dirk Jehmlich
General Manager Asia-Pacific

                研究中心
Trendbüro
#2108 Xintai Building | 8 Xiaguangli | Chaoyang District | 100016 Beijing | China
Email: d.jehmlich@trendbuero.com | http://www.trendbuero.com




Contact                                                                              >> 50
                                                                www.trendbuero.com

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Sustainable China?

  • 1. SUSTAINABLE CHINA? SAM Forum, 27.01.2009 Dirk Jehmlich, General Manager Asia-Pacific >> 1 www.trendbuero.com
  • 2. THE WORLD IS URBANIZING. CHINA FASTEST. Sustainable China? >> 2 www.trendbuero.com
  • 3. IN 2025 CHINA WILL HAVE 221 CITIES WITH A POPULATION OF MORE THAN 1 MILLION. EUROPE HAS 35 TODAY. McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 3 www.trendbuero.com
  • 4. 800 MILLION CHINESE WILL LIVE IN CITIES BY 2020. 930 MILLION BEFORE 2030. UN, 2004 Sustainable China? >> 4 www.trendbuero.com
  • 5. 700 MILLION OF THEM WILL German Center for Industry and Trade, Shanghai, 2007 HAVE WESTERN SPENDING CAPACITY BY 2015? Sustainable China? >> 5 www.trendbuero.com
  • 6. THEY WANT TO MOVE OUT FROM THEIR PARENTS INTO BIGGER APARTMENTS, WORK IN OFFICES AND DRIVE THEIR OWN CARS. Sustainable China? >> 6 www.trendbuero.com
  • 7. MEANS… Sustainable China? >> 7 www.trendbuero.com
  • 8. 40 BILLION SQM OF FLOOR SPACE WILL BE BUILT IN 5 MILLION BUILDINGS UNTIL 2025. McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 8 www.trendbuero.com
  • 9. 50,000 OF THESE BUILDINGS COULD BE SKYSCRAPERS = 10 NEW YORK CITIES McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 9 www.trendbuero.com
  • 10. THIS MEANS 1 NEW BEIJING EVERY YEAR FOR 35 YEARS. 35 X BEIJING = 2 X THE TOTAL BUILT VOLUME OF CHINA. Sustainable China? >> 10 www.trendbuero.com
  • 11. 5 BILLION SQM STREETS WILL BE PAVED UNTIL 2025 = A TWO LANE ROAD 40 X AROUND THE WORLD. McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 11 www.trendbuero.com
  • 12. TO HOST 140 MILLION CARS ON THE ROADS BY 2020. China Daily, 2004 Sustainable China? >> 12 www.trendbuero.com
  • 13. BUT STILL, SHANGHAI’S TRAFFIC WILL EXCEED ITS ROAD CAPACITY THREE TIMES. China Daily, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 13 www.trendbuero.com
  • 14. EVEN THOUGH 64% OF PEOPLE RANK THE CURRENT TRAFFIC SITUATION AS ‘BAD’ Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 OR ‘VERY BAD’, 75% EXPECT TO OWN A CAR IN 2020. Sustainable China? >> 14 www.trendbuero.com
  • 15. 41% OF THOSE WHO NOW TRAVEL BY NON-CAR METHODS HOPE SOON TO BE DRIVING. THOSE PRESENTLY Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 IN CARS INSIST THEY WILL KEEP ON USING THEM. Sustainable China? >> 15 www.trendbuero.com
  • 16. BY 2050 CHINA WILL HAVE ALMOST AS MANY CARS AS THE ENTIRE WORLD HAS TODAY. Economist, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 16 www.trendbuero.com
  • 17. TWO MILLION MORE CARS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE TO BEIJING'S ROADS BY 2012. China Daily, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 17 www.trendbuero.com
  • 18. THEY WILL NEED ANOTHER 60 SQ KM OF PARKING SPACE = THE TOTAL AREA WITHIN THE 2ND RING ROAD AND AT LEAST 1.3 BILLION China Daily, 2008 LITERS OF GAS EACH YEAR. Sustainable China? >> 18 www.trendbuero.com
  • 19. IT WILL BE DENSE. 17,150 PEOPLE PER SQKM IN SHENZHEN; 13,400 IN Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 SHANGHAI; 11,500 IN BEIJING. Sustainable China? >> 19 www.trendbuero.com
  • 20. URBAN EXPANSION IS CONCENTRATED IN A MINORITY Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 OF CHINA. Sustainable China? >> 20 www.trendbuero.com
  • 21. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 21 www.trendbuero.com
  • 22. SEPARATE IT FROM CHINA AND YOU GET: PEOPLE’S URBANITY OF CHINA Sustainable China? >> 22 www.trendbuero.com
  • 23. PUC AREA IS ONLY 1/3 OF THE USA AND YET PUC’S POPULATION IN 2020 WILL Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 BE MORE THAN 1.5 TIMES OF (EUROPE + USA). Sustainable China? >> 23 www.trendbuero.com
  • 24. 96% OF… CHINA’S POPULATION, CHINA’S GDP, Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 CHINA’S ARABLE LAND. Sustainable China? >> 24 www.trendbuero.com
  • 25.
  • 26. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 26 www.trendbuero.com
  • 27. THE EMERGENCE OF A SINGLE MEGALOPOLIS OF OVER 470 MILLION Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 INHABITANTS. Sustainable China? >> 27 www.trendbuero.com
  • 28. INHABITANTS = CONSUMERS Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 28 www.trendbuero.com
  • 31. BUT WE ARE LIVING IN AN AGE OF RESOURCE SCARCITY. Sustainable China? >> 31 www.trendbuero.com
  • 32. CHINA OFFERS GREAT OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALL INDUSTRIES. BUT THESE OPPORTUNITIES ARE TIED TO SERIOUS CHALLENGES. Sustainable China? >> 32 www.trendbuero.com
  • 33. AGRICULTURAL GROUND China State Environmental Protection Administration, 2007 AFFECTED BY ACID RAIN NOW ACCOUNTS FOR 40% OF CHINA’S TOTAL USABLE LAND. Sustainable China? >> 33 www.trendbuero.com
  • 34. HEAVY METAL-TAINTED FOODS AMOUNT TO 12 Samsung Economic Research Institute, Beijing Office, 2008 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM, WITH ECONOMIC DAMAGE AMOUNTING TO 20 BILLION YUAN. Sustainable China? >> 34 www.trendbuero.com
  • 35. POLLUTION HAS MADE Samsung Economic Research Institute, Beijing Office, 2008 CANCER THE NATION’S NO. 1 KILLER. LUNG CANCER CASES GREW UP 18.6% IN 2006 FROM 2005. Sustainable China? >> 35 www.trendbuero.com
  • 36. ECONOMIC DAMAGES FROM AIR AND WATER POLLUTION TOTALED 781 BILLION YUAN IN 2007. World Bank, 2007 Sustainable China? >> 36 www.trendbuero.com
  • 37. SOCIAL COST OF POLLUTION NOW AMOUNTS TO 8-13% OF Pan Yue, Vice Chairman of the CNEMC, 2006 GDP. Sustainable China? >> 37 www.trendbuero.com
  • 38. STILL… Sustainable China? >> 38 www.trendbuero.com
  • 39. CHINESE CONSUMERS WILL DOUBLE THEIR FOOD CONSUMPTION UNTIL 2020. CHINA WILL ACCOUNT FOR http://www.foodnavigator.com 1/3 OF WORLD MEAT CONSUMPTION. Sustainable China? >> 39 www.trendbuero.com
  • 40. 48% WANT TO COMMUTE BY CAR. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 40 www.trendbuero.com
  • 41. 63% WANT TO OWN A CAR. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 41 www.trendbuero.com
  • 42. 75% DREAM OF HAVING A GARDEN. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 42 www.trendbuero.com
  • 43. 79% A SPACIOUS HOME. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 43 www.trendbuero.com
  • 44. AND 90% WANT TO LIVE IN A SUSTAINABLE Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 ENVIRONMENT. Sustainable China? >> 44 www.trendbuero.com
  • 45. BUT… Sustainable China? >> 45 www.trendbuero.com
  • 46. s fish’ the h e bot v ’t ha paw an r’s eat it too. c e beaae and You th k andt have your c tail can’ u , yo – or Sustainable China? >> 46 www.trendbuero.com
  • 47. THIS IS WHERE SUSTAINABILITY COMES INTO THE GAME. Sustainable China? >> 47 www.trendbuero.com
  • 48. Key Questions Sustainability 2019 Drivers –What if you built the whole mass –Politics: China will be in transition –Sustainability in China is crucial for of Western Europe in 20 years from centralized China to a United national security. and 400 million urbanites then States of China. sustainability = peace move in? –Economics: Sustainability will be –Environmental pollution consumes key to sustain economic growth and a serious share of economic growth –What are impacts on brands, increase living standards. sustainability = profit products and services? –Society: China will be dominated by –Resource scarcity and wastage of a urban middle class. resources risk global competiveness –What are emerging challenges sustainability = growth –Technology: China will be a global and opportunities for you? –High-speed urbanization powerhouse for R&D and production and a lab for new technical and sustainability = future –What does it mean for Europe if social innovations. R&D, production and –Consumption: Shift from Made in consumption all shift to Asia? China to Made for China. –Resources: Massive demand for raw –What are quick wins of materials, energy, skills and food sustainable behaviour for each outpace supply stakeholder? –How can planet earth deal with a billion new middle class consumers (long-term achievements)? Sustainable China? >> 48 www.trendbuero.com
  • 49. Key Questions Sustainability 2019 Drivers –How will consumption patterns –Economic growth: GDP will fourfold Consumption Pattern be affected by shifts of wealth? until 2020; EUR 74 billion –Qualities: efficiency, identity, investment for housing & design, authenticity, quality, infrastructure –What is the impact of comfort, convenience –Urbanization: 400 mio new immigration on market demand? –Behaviours: access, value for urbanites by 2020 money, diversification –How will increased global –Migration: 96% of China’s GDP is distribution of talent change the consumed in east China corporate landscape? Migration –Weak social security: 300 to 600 –Global: Talent Tango – learn in the billion USD by 2020 (best case USD –Will we have climate migrants? 400 per capita) West, earn in the East –Growing income: 700 mio. –National: from west to east; rollover –Will walls be built up or will consumers with western spending migration migration flow more freely? capacity in 2015 –Climate: soil erosion, deforestation –Environment: 130 mio. hectares of and desertification will force millions –What are corresponding of northern China’s arable land is to move investment opportunities? shrinking; EUR 39 billion –Barriers: barrier-free migration for investment for ecological and educated workforce only environmental projects –Individualization: 79% of young Chinese assume to live without parents by 2020 Social Mobility in China >> 49 www.trendbuero.com
  • 50. Thank you! Hamburg | Beijing Dirk Jehmlich General Manager Asia-Pacific 研究中心 Trendbüro #2108 Xintai Building | 8 Xiaguangli | Chaoyang District | 100016 Beijing | China Email: d.jehmlich@trendbuero.com | http://www.trendbuero.com Contact >> 50 www.trendbuero.com