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17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy
Spring 2009
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1
Sustainable Development:
Theory & Policy
Week 8
From Sustainability Problems to
Solution Strategies
Professor Nazli Choucri
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri MIT
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Contextualization
Introducing GSSD
From Problems to Solutions
The Transformation Problem
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri MIT
2
1. Contextualization
•  Globalization & World-wide eConnectivity
•  Increased Knowledge Intensity
•  New Technologies for Knowledge Networking
•  Dow Jones Indices of Corporate Sustainability
•  Sustainability Measures for Decision
•  Persistent Gaps Local-Global Gaps
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
3
The Argument
Convergence of global trends is transforming
traditional knowledge practices, creating new
research modes & accelerating ‘new knowledge’.
Such transformations may reduce bias in
international research and knowledge-gaps world-
wide.
But research designs must reflect fundamentals of
diversity, complexity, globalization & localization.
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
4
• Knowledge of Sustainability
• Knowledge for Sustainability
Global knowledge meta-networking
Structured knowledge on sustainability
System for using “state-of-the-art” knowledge
Decision support collaborative platform
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
8.2 Introducing the Global System
for Sustainable Development
(GSSD)
management
5
Knowledge About What?
• Human activities & conditions
• Sustainability problems
• Scientific & technological solutions
• Economic, political & social solutions
• International actions & responses
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
6
7
Conceptual Framework - Rings
Activities
Problems
Technical Solutions
Social Solutions
Social Solutions
Technical Solutions
Problems
Activities
International Responses
International Responses
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
8 17.181-17.182
y y p pm
Land Use
Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
Copyright © 2000 MIT
Global S stem for Sustainabilit Develo ment Center for Innovation in Product Development
N. Choucri
Copyright © 1999 GSSD ™
MIT
Conceptual Framework - Slices
Mobility
Agriculture
Water
Governance
Conflicts
Urbanization
Consumption
Unmet Needs
Population
Migration
Energy
Trade
Industry
9
Population
Trade & Finance
Governance &
Institutions
Migration &
Dislocation
Energy Use
& Sources
Industry
Conceptual Framework
Conceptual Framework
Mobility Agriculture
Forest &
Land Use
Water Use &
Sources
Conflicts &
Wars
Urbanization
Unmet Basic Consumption
Needs
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
10
SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEMS
l i l
finance
& sources
Environmental
impacts
R
S
E
O
U
institutions
Constraints on
i i li i
Migration &
dislocation
Environmental
impacts of trade;
Impacts of trade
competitiveness
& pattern;
Distribution tensions;
Political shifts
FROM ACTIVITIES & CONDITIONS TO
Depletion of non-
renewable resources;
Pollution, wastes,
eco og ca ef fects
Trade &
Energy use
Hazardous wastes
Land , air & water pollution;
Ozone depletion
Governance &
peace-keeping;
Physical destruction;
Soc al marg na zat on
Social & resource
constraints relative to demand;
Gender & age-specific problems
Stresses related to changes in
group composition; Changes in density
Environmentall
Unmet
basic needs
Conflicts
Water sources
& uses
use
i l
;
A
H
C
R
C
E S
L
Y
G
O
L
O
N
E
T
& impacts;
Joint human &
Population
Disease
Resource use
l i
Social stress;
ic
; l
emissions
Casualties;
;
l
Conflicts over
resources
Mobili
Soil erosion &
degradation;
y-
polluting fertilizers land overuse;
Forest destruction
Industry
ACTIVITIES & CONDITIONS
& wars
Forest & Land
A gr cu ture
ACTIVITIES & CONDITIONS
SU STAI N ABI L I T Y PR O BL E M S
SU STAI N ABI L I T Y PR O BL E M S
Human impacts on
sources & needs;
Natural causes
natural causes
Consumption
Urbanization
Poor quality of life;
Food shortages;
Health hazards;
& depletion;
Waste accum u at on
Poverty expansion;
Environment & health
effects; Socioeconom
dislocations Globa
change & GHG
Weapons trade & use
Damage to natura
environments;
Transport &
ty
Urban pollution & natural
resource shortages;
Spatial dynamics
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
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From Problems to Solutions
8.3
Nested System
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri MIT
11
12
Education;
f women’s
opportunities & skills;
ific support programs
Safety nets
Safeguards to human &
itats;
Facilitate security &
economic cooperation;
Improve political
participation;
Strengthen
peace-k
Direct regulat
control;
Market based
strategies;
Government R&D
Improved toxic release
inventories; Standards &
codes; Market based
incentives; Best Practices
;
Market strategy;
unting &
nts;
Provisio
SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICA
Improvement o
;
ive
t
polic
natural hab
port
Improved technologies
& methods for
maintaining peace
eeping
on technologies;
on
control; Renewable
non-polluting sources
ory
ustrial
bstitution of
&
n;
Trade measures & policies;
Improved acco
measureme
resolution
ing & shipment;
Energy
Age-spec
Respons
infrastructure s rategies;
Resettlement
Migration
Migrant sup
programs
producti
Efficient use; Polluti
ecology; Su
Cleaner productio
Eco-efficiency
products &
roved
packag
Governance
& institutions
strategies
ies & strategies;
Alternative
production; Ind
measures
ns for dispute
Improved
process; Imp
Mobility
Agriculture
Land &
Forests
Water
Conflicts & wars
Urbanization
Consumption
Unmet
basic needs
Population
Migration
& dislocation
Trade &
Finance
Industry
CFC substitutes;
Structural economic
changes;
Efficient mobility
systems
Eco-efficiency & safet
measures; Markets &
mechanisms
for cleaner mobility;
Emission standards
& audits
Sustainable
agricultural practices;
Agriculture finance systems;
Improved food distribution
& finance methods
Limiting
hazardous chemicals
& fertilizers; Advances
in agriculture methods
Improved storage
& transport
Improved legislation;
Agroforestry forms;
Forest management
programs
New
techniques
for forest use
& reforestation;
Sustainable logging practices
Information
technologies
Planning &
management;
Supply-side alternatives;
New technological
approaches for damage
response; Use of
technological options for
peace-making &
peace-keeping
Effective
arms control;
War insurance;
Contingency plans
against violence;
Meeting international
codes
Waste management;
Urban services;
Strengthen urban
communities
Improve urban
infrastructure;
Reduce population
concentrations
Waste
management &
minimization; Improve
production processes
Changes in
consumer behavior;
Mechanisms for
consumption change
Access to
effective
technology;
Strengthen
business support
Poverty alleviation
assistance;
Enhanced capacity building;
Responsive legal systems
Fertility
management;
Strengthen
health services
Cleaner
functions; Waste
minimization
L
SOCIAL, ECONOMIC,
POLITICAL, & REGULATORY
TYPES of SOLUTION STRATEGIES
TYPES of SOLUTION STRATEGIES
Demand-side
management
Market strategies
& mechanisms;
Public & private
interactions;
Improved
information systems
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
13
GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGIES
Hazardous Activities
Partnership
Economic
& Strategies
Institutional
i
Strategies
Joint
& Agreements
Formal Constraints on
Private/Public
Adjustment Targets
Population Ass
Management of Migration
International Pollution
Control Agreements
Sustainabil ty
Implementation
Voluntary
Agreements
Trade Regimes
Accords &
Institutions
f
Di i
International
Monitoring of
Hazardous
iti
& Resettlement
International
Codes of
Fi
Innovative
International
Investment Strategies
Strategies
istance &
International
Benchmarki
Global
AGENDA 21
New Global
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSES
and GLOBAL ACCORDS
Conventions
Agreements
or Technology
ffus on, Advance
& Access
Activ es
Coordination for
Reconstruction
nancial &
Investment Conduct
Dispute Resolution
Procedures
Conflict Management
ng Systems
Conferences
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
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Methodological & Strategic Issues
Concept & Theories
Indicators & Measures
Models & Case Studies
Agreements & Organizations
Policy, Strategy & Responses
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri MIT
14
8.4 The Transformation
Problem
Assets vs. Liabilities
Sustainability or Sustainable ‘Growth”
Paths, Options, Trajectories
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
15
Valuing all assets: human,
1. The problem is how to deploy national assets and
manage national liabilities toward sustainability
2. This involves financial and non-financial assets all
forms of resources (human, natural, & economic)
can be used to serve national goals
Diversity: in empirical manifestation regarding
4. Sustainability as a generic problem for industrial
17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
capital, natural, environmental
3.
transformation problem
and developing countries
16
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17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy
Spring 2009
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Sustainable Development
17.181-17.182
Week 12 Outline
I. THE CHINA CASE
• Sustainability Issues
• Policy Priorities?
II. MODELS of VALUE
III. LEGACIES of 20th CENTURY
IV. NEW GLOBAL AGENDA
I. The China Case
"The number of China's elderly is ballooning thanks to
improvements in medicine and sanitation, while the number
of people born after the government's one-child policy went
into effect in 1979 is diwndling. China's immense workforce,
key to today's boom, will shrink after 2015."
Source: Karen E. Lange. “Shrinking Workforce” National Geographic; May 2008; Pg. 98.
"But by 2050 close to a third of China's citizens will be over
60--three times the current proportion. With little social
security and few pensions to ease the burden, China's only
children will have to support two parents (and in many case
four grandparents) apiece--a heavy load even for urban factory
workers, who typically save a quarter of their wages."
Source: Karen E. Lange. “Shrinking Workforce” National Geographic; May 2008; Pg. 98.
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: Karen E. Lange. “Shrinking Workforce” National Geographic; May 2008; Pg. 98.
Hungry for Oil
"There's a new contender for the world's oil...China's
demand has helped drive up oil prices to record highs,
causing pain at the gas pump for drivers around the world."
Source: “Hungry for Oil” National Geographic. May 2008; pg. 172.
Countries Exporting Oil to China: 1996
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: “Hungry for Oil” National Geographic. May 2008; pg. 172+173.
Countries Exporting Oil to China: 2006
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: “Hungry for Oil” National Geographic. May 2008; pg. 172+173.
II. MODELS of VALUE
• How to capture the value of an investment
• What principle should be used to
determine access and distribution of that
which generates ‘value’?
• Should everything go through the market
place?
Models of Value*
(1) the proprietary principle model
(2) the open-access model
(3) the knowledge commons model
(4) the value in networking model.
(5) the value paradox model
* Source: N Choucri, CyberPolitics, MIT Press, under review.
III. Some Legacies of 20th C.
III. Some Legacies of 20th C.
• More People
• More Countries
• More Voices & Demands
• More IGO’s and NGO’s
• More Trade
• More Technology
• More Energy Use
• CO2 – GHGs – Pollution
• More Environmental Awareness
Technology - Issues
• Persistent Globalization
- People Goods, Services, Ideas, etc.
Crossing Borders
• “Glocalization”
- Local impacts of Globalization
• Global Race for Knowledge
- Increased Knowledge Intensity
in Wealth & Power
• Reproducing Western Development
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
Climate Change –
Potential Effects
• Differential impacts within & across countries
– more burdens on the poor everywhere
– more social cleavages
• Erosion of governance & institutions
– Loss of law and order
– Growth of individual ‘self-help’ actions
N. Choucri
Carbon Emission 2002
www.worldmapper.org
© Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan). Used with permission.
Climate Change Index
Climate Change Index
for 189 C
for 189 ountries
Countries
• The 10 countries of highest overall risk
account for 2% of GHG Emission
Djibouti, Egypt, Pakistan, Cuba, Iraq, Morocco,
Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Mozambique
and Somalia.
• Of the 31 countries with extreme risk,
only 3 are industrial
Netherlands, Canada & USA
Source: Mapplecroft Maps The index consists of 3 equal components;
(i) Coastal exposure; (ii) Inland exposure (iii) Health exposure.
(iv) Socio-economic or other impacts not covered/. N. Choucri
Distribution of CCI Impacts
Distribution of CCI Impacts
Source: Mapplecroft Maps N. Choucri
Some Potential Dangers
Some Potential Dangers
Global sea levels rise as oceans warm &
sea ice melts
– uninhabitable conditions
Increase in rainfall intensity will increase
tropical storms
– more risk of weather-relate disasters
– Infectious disease
Infrastructure must adapt to these changes
– more social & economic pressures
– more stresses on resources N. Choucri
Violent Deaths - 2002
www.worldmapper.org
© Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan). Used with permission.
Self-Inflicted Deaths - 2002
© Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan). Used with permission.
www.worldmapper.org
Refugees - Countries of Origin 2003
© Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan). Used with permission.
www.worldmapper.org
IV. New Global Agenda
• Salience of Environment
Growth in Environmental Treaties
• Framing New Objectives
“Sustainable Development”
• Re-Visiting the Fundamentals
Equity Matters– Not Only Efficiency
• Addressing New Realities
Connecting Climate Change &
Sustainability
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Spring 2009
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Sustainable Development
17.181-17.182
Week 11 Outline
I. SATTELITES & SUSTAINABILITY
• Africa Case – Student Presentations
II. GLOBALIZATION (from Week 10)
• Globalization
• Sustainability Issues
III. GLOBAL SYSTEM FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOP0MENT
• What is it?
• Why? How?
I. SALLELITES & SUSTAIN ABILITY
Danielle
Comments by Brooke
II. GLOBALIZATION
Globalization refers to:
The transformations in structure and processes
Within and across states
Shaped by the movement of
goods, services, influence and effluents
across national borders.
Sources & Process
These movements are rooted in the
• differential and uneven patterns of growth and
development across states.
• These are commonplace in international
contexts but can forge new realities if
(a) they alter the structure of national economies
and societies and /or
(b) shape new forms of international
interdependence.
Dimensions of Globalization
• Demographic – people crossing borders voluntary or
otherwise
• Resources - energy, raw materials, etc.
• Knowledge & Technology – skills, ideas, equipment,
management, organization, etc.
• Economic - goods, services, capital, trade, financial
transactions, production systems and structures
• Communication - connectivity, reach, messaging etc.
• Security – vulnerabilities, sensitivities, threats, etc.
• Environmental - efflluents, emmissions of GHG’s etc.
Derivative Dimensions
• Cultural ‘flows’
• Political Concepts and Ideas
• Religion and Faith
and
• Markets for Loyalties
Consequences
Over time, these realities will
• Shape new spaces - arenas of
interaction – and possibly conditions
• Create pressures on existing
Institutions
• Forge new demands for governance.
The Fundamentals
• Cross-Border Movements Æ
• Transformations Æ
• Pressures of Impacts Æ
• Strains on Institutional Mechanisms Æ
• Demands for Governance Æ
Constitutive Impacts
This term refers to ‘strong’ effects of
globalization – when all of this
• Alters the structure of national economies
• Changes international processes and
structures
• Creates new actors and configurations of
national and international politics
Constitutive Effects of Globalization
• Demographic – new labor markets, new identities new
societies, pressures on the social contract, even new states
• Resources - new access to essentials fo power
• Knowledge & Technology – leapfrogging stages of
technological development, enhancing value added
• Economic - transformations in consumption patterns,
import demands, composition of goods and services,
• Communication - creation of virtual communities,
cyberpolitics, impacts for state authority, global civil society
• Security – new fears, new $ allocations to manage fears
• Environment - climate change, impacts on biosphere etc.
Feedback Dynamics
• Responses
• Re-structurings
• Re-alignments
With respect to
• Markets
• Structure of Claims
• Political Systems
• Discretion over Decision-making
Complexities of Globalization:
Real & Virtual
• Cases in the complexities of globalization
– Flow types
– Impacts on sending and receiving
– Relevance to profiles
– From state-based interactions to pervasive modalities
• Different flows engender different forms of demands
for regulation
– Adaptive versus transformative
• Brief introduction to four modalities of globalization
– Trade, Migration, Environment, Cyberspace
– Each manifesting different aspects of globalization and of
governance challenges
– Each rooted in activities of individuals within the state
Level of Monitoring
Heavily Monitored Relatively Unmonitored
Trade
Environment Cyberspace
Migration
Traditional
Emergent
Flow Type and Response to Flow
Encouraged Discouraged
Trade
Cyberspace Environment
Migration
Tangible
Intangible
Interaction
Bilateral / Dyadic Multilateral
Object-
oriented
Trade Environment
Orientation
People-
oriented
Migration Cyberspace
Pressures
from
Globalization
Domains
Globalization
Type
Interaction
Mode
Flow Type
Target or
Management
Internationally
Managed
Trade Traditional Bilateral
Tangible
goods and
services Object High
Migration Traditional Bilateral
Tangible/
People People Variable
Environment Emergent Global Intangible Effleunts
Low moving toward
some form of accord
Cyberspace Emergent Global Intangible
People and
Networks
Low with little trends
toward formalization
Globalization Pressures
On Governance
Processes
Migration
Trade
Environment
New
Governance
Structure
Cyberspace
Original
Governance
Structure
Cyber-enabled
Capabilities*
Sources of
Solutions to Pressures
*Cyber-enabled capabilities
includes electronic advances,
not just cyberspace-enabled
capabilities.
Cyber-Based Solutions
Migration
Trade
Environment
New
Governance
Efforts
Globalization Pressures
On Governance
Initial
Governance
Processes
Cyberspace
Cyber-enabled
Capabilities
III. Global System for Sustainable
Development
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Spring 2009
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Courtesy of Nazli Choucri and MIT Press. Used with permission.
Source: Nazli Choucri. Global Accord: Environmental Challenges and International Responses, pp. 31.
Distribution of States Across Profile Groups (1/2)
Profile 1 Profile 2 Profile 3 Profile 4 Profile 5 Profile 6
Algeria Albania Afghanistan Bangladesh Finland
Antigua and
Barbuda
Angola Armenia Australia Costa Rica New Zealand Austria
Argentina Azerbaijan Canada Dominica Norway Bahrain
Belarus Benin Estonia
Dominican
Republic United States Barbados
Bosnia and
Herzegovina Iceland El Salvador Sweden Belgium
Bhutan Bulgaria Oman Grenada United States Croatia
Bolivia Burundi Saudi Arabia Jamaica Cyprus
Botswana Cambodia Lebanon Czech Republic
Brazil Cape Verde Lithuania Denmark
Burkina Faso China Malaysia France
Cameroon Comoros Maldives Germany
Central African
Republic Cote d'Ivoire
Marshall
Islands Greece
Chad Egypt, Arab Rep. Mauritius
Hong Kong,
China
Chile Ethiopia Hungary
Colombia Gambia, The Philippines Ireland
Congo, Dem.
Rep. Georgia Poland Israel
Congo, Rep. Ghana Sri Lanka Italy
Djibouti Guatemala St. Lucia Japan
Ecuador Uzbekistan Korea, Rep.
• Source: for the slide “Distribution of States Across Profile Groups (1/2).
*See Choucri and North (1993) for initial specification; and see
Wickboldt and Choucri (2006) for extension of the logic to differentiate
empirically among countries within each of the profile group.
Distribution of States Across Profile Groups (2/2)
Profile 1 Profile 2 Profile 3 Profile 4 Profile 5 Profile 6
Venezuela, RB Haiti Thailand Kuwait
Sudan Honduras Turkey Luxembourg
Gabon India
West Bank
and Gaza Malta
Guinea Indonesia Mexico
Guyana Jordan Netherlands
Iran, Islamic Rep. Kenya Portugal
Kazakhstan Pakistan Seychelles
Yemen, Rep. Vietnam Singapore
Mauritania Rwanda Slovak Republic
Mongolia Sierra Leone Slovenia
Mozambique Swaziland Spain
Niger
Syrian Arab
Republic
St. Kitts and
Nevis
Madagascar Tunisia Switzerland
Mali Uganda United Kingdom
• Source: for the slide “Distribution of States Across Profile Groups (2/2).
*See Choucri and North (1993) for initial specification; and see
Wickboldt and Choucri (2006) for extension of the logic to differentiate
empirically among countries within each of the profile group.
Definition of State Profiles
Group VI: Technology > Population > Resources
Group V: Technology > Resources > Population
Group IV: Resources > Technology > Population
Group III: Population > Technology > Resources
Group II: Population > Resource > Technology
Group I: Resources > Population > Technology
*See Choucri and North (1993) for initial specification; and see
Wickboldt and Choucri (2006) for extension of the logic to differentiate
empirically among countries within each of the profile group.
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New Thinking & Knowledge Economy
17.181-17.182
Week 4 Outline
I. BACKGROUND TO REVIEW
Decolonization
Phases of Theory and Policy
Challenges to Sustainability
II. REVIEW – KEY ISSUES & READINGS
III. KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY
IV. THEORY OF LATERAL PRESSURE
State Profiles - Types
Sustainability of State Profile Types
1. BACKGROUND
TRAIL and ERROR
SHIFTS in FOCUS
CONVERGING on SUSTAINABILITY
Review Week 1
• Variety of Definitions
• Core Definition
• Readings
concepts
positions
Issues
What is Sustainabilitv?
.
I
The abilitv
u of humanity to ensure that it meets the needs of
the present without compromising the abilitv
m2 of future
generations to meet their own needs. [Bruntland, 19871
Preservation of productive capacitv
L. for the foreseeable
future. [Solow, 19921
* Biophysical sustainability means maintaining or improving
the integritv
L. of the life support svstem
a of earth. [Fuwa,
19951
A dvnamic
rn harmony
tJ between the equitable availability of
energy-intensive goods and services to all people and the
preservation of the earth for future generations [Tester, et
al. 20051
Prepared by E. Drrtke, MTT Energyand Environment Lab, 2006
What are the major material concerns?
Global Energy consumption is growing because:
- Population is growing
- Energy use per capita is growing - especially in developing
countries
Major fossil energy sources have problems
- Securitv
U of supplvtprice
L
. stability
U (esp. petroleum)
- Depletion concerns
- Climate impacts
Energy access is unequally
C distributed
Global economv is dependent on present levels of fossil energv
L.
prices & availabilitv
V - change will slow economic growth
Prepared by E. Drake. VTT Energy and Environn~cntLab. 2 0 6
What are the major material concerns?
* Global Energy consumption is growing because:
- Population is growing
- Energv use per capita is growing -especially in developing
countiies
Major fossil energv
- &
' sources have problems
- Security of supplylprice stability (esp. petroleum)
- Depletion concerns
- Climate impacts
Energv
O access is unequally distributed
Global economy is dependent on present levels of fossil energy
prices & availability -change will slow economic growth
!'repared by E. Drake, MI
T f?neqqand Envimmnent Lab. 2006
The Core – High Level Definition
We define sustainable development as:
– The process of meeting the needs of current and
future generations
– Without undermining
– The resilience of the life-supporting properties of
nature and the integrity (or cohesion) of social
systems”.
What are the properties of this definition?
Relationship between Institutional quality and national income
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
Global Freshwater Withdrawal
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
To see a similar graph go to the GRID-Arendal Website
Review Week 2
Evolving Conceptions – causes and
consequences
Themes that Explain Collapse
According to Tainter
Each of the items below are listed as separate causal factors in his book
(p. 43). A such we cannot see any theory dynamic logic. But if we begin to
group the items, and imply some logic, a form of ‘theory’ emerges*.
(1) Resource Constraints (2) Social costs
• Depletion • Class conflict, elite
• New resource Base mismanagement
• Economic Factors • Social dysfunction
(3) Persistent Pressures (4) Beliefs & Chance?
• Catastrophe
• Insufficient responses • Mystical Factors
• Chance and events
(5) External Threats
• Other complex systems
• Intruders
* Numbered items represent the grouping of Tainter’s 11 items, p. 43).
Intragenerational Principles
Reduce gross inequities between the poorest and wealthiest
both nationallv
* and globally
- Meet the basic needs of the poorest with food, shelter, health care,
clean water, access to electricity, education, opportunitv
.v for work,
etc,
- Avoid exploitation of poorer countrylrqion resources and labor to
create even greater wealth for the richest
Provide ways to protect the common good (social,
environmeita~,
economic) locally and globally
.. through
national and international governancelcooperation
- Preserve natural ecoswtems
a against unconstrained development
- Avoid interference with natural balances in the atmosphere, the
oceans, and the arctic regions
- Maintain stable institutions that protect human rights, adjudicate
conflicts9and allow responsible trade and market economy activities
Prepared hy E. O~.ake,
MIT Encrgy and Environmet.11Cab. 2006
Intergenerational Principles
* Trustee: Every generation has an obligation to protect
interests of futkre generations
Chain of obligation: Primarv obligation is to provide
for the needs of the living a
dsucceeding generations.
Near term concrete hazards have prioritv
Y over long
term hvpothetical
C hazards
* Precautionarv Principle: Do not pursue actions that
pose a realistic threat of irreversible harm or
catastrophic consequences unless there is some
compelling or countervailing need to benefit either
current or future generations
Prepared by E. h k e , MIT Energy and Enviro~irnenf
b h . 2006
Dynamic Complexity Arises
because systems are
•Constantly changing
•Tightly coupled
•Governed by feedback
•Nonlinear
•History-dependent
•Self-organizing
•Adaptive
•Characterized by trade-offs
•Counterintuitive
•Policy resistant
Source: J. Sterman, “System Dynamics, ESD Symposium, 2002.
Review Week 3
The equation – several times
Issue of Scale
Issue of Linkages and Supply Chain
Annual Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels and Land-Use Change Graph
Image removed due to copyright restrictions. Please visit the Pew Center on Global Climate Change to see
a similar graph.
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
Income and Happiness in the US Graph
Image removed due to copyright restriction. Please go to the Students Against Climate Change website
to see a similar graph.
The automotive technology system
as seen through the lens of an industrial ecology view.
Manufacture,use,recycle
(i.e. the engine)
Built Infrastructure (i.e.highways)
Supply Infrastructure (i.e. the petroleum industry)
Social Structure
Infrastructure
Technologies
The Automobile
Automobile
Subsystems
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare
(i.e.dispersed communities
and businesses,malls)
World Primary Energy, GDP, and Population Trends Graph
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
World Primary Energy Consumption
Image removed due to copyright restrctions.
Institutional Capacities
Institutional Capacity (IC) consists of a set of capabilities involving:
Finance (FC) Taxation and other forms of public
levy
Distribution (DC) Systems of revenue‐expense balances
Regulation (RC) Exercise of “law and order”
Response (RC) Accountability in governance
Symbolism (SC) Identity formation and maintenance
Figure by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Adapted from Chourcri, Nazli. “The Politics of Sustainability.” In Sustainability and the Social Sciences: A Cross‐Disciplinary Approach to
Integrating Environmental Considerations into Theoretical Reorientation. Edited by Egon Becker and Thomas Jahn. London, UK: Zed Books,
1999, pp. 153.
New Thinking on Sustainability
Elements Question
Key Dimensions What is it that must become sustainable?
Core Processes How is it that sustainability might proceed?
Behavior Principle Which norms
conceptual) c
(computational and
ould facilitate transitions
towards sustainability?
Performance Goals What would be the alternative, generic,
society‐wide outcomes desired?
Implementation conditions Which conditions facilitate implementation
of sustainability strategies?
Decisions and policy What are the decisions that must be
choices addressed?
Figure by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Adapted from Chourcri, Nazli. “The Politics of Sustainability.” In Sustainability and the Social Sciences: A Cross‐Disciplinary Approach to
Integrating Environmental Considerations into Theoretical Reorientation. Edited by Egon Becker and Thomas Jahn. London, UK: Zed Books,
1999, pp. 147.
Week 4
Knowledge Economy
The Theory of Lateral Pressure
Summary in Required reading
Choucri & North, 1993.
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Sustainability as a Knowledge Domain
17.181-17.182
Week 3 Outline
I. REVIEW and COMMENTS
Definitions & Key Features
Challenges to Sustainability Theory
Why Systems Collapse – Tainter (first pass)
II. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
Defintion
Goals
III. SUSTAINABILITY as a KNOWLEDGE DOMAIN
Knowledge Transition
Knowledge Systems
Knowledge e-Barriers
Solution Strategies to e-Barriers
IV. INTRODUCTION to GSSD
I. Review and Comments
Urban population without
Population without safe water adequate sanitation
100
60
80
60 40
40
Micrograms
per
Percent
cubic
meter
of
air
Percent
Micrograms
per
Tons
cubic
meter
of
air
Percent
20
20
0 0
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Per capita income (dollars) Per capita income (dollars)
Urban concentrations Urban concentrations
of particulate matter
1,800
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
of sulfur dioxide
50
40
30
20
10
0
1,200
600
0
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Per capita income (dollars) Per capita income (dollars)
Carbon dioxide
Municipal wastes per capita emissions per capita
0
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
16
600
12
400
8
200 4
0
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Per capita income (dollars) Per capita income (dollars)
Figure by MIT OpenCourseWare
Graph removed due to copyright restrictions.
Themes that Explain Collapse
According to Tainter
Each of the items below are listed as separate causal factors in his book
(p. 43). A such we cannot see any theory dynamic logic. But if we begin to
group the items, and imply some logic, a form of ‘theory’ emerges*.
(1) Resource Constraints (2) Social costs
• Depletion • Class conflict, elite
• New resource Base mismanagement
• Economic Factors • Social dysfunction
(3) Persistent Pressures (4) Beliefs & Chance?
• Catastrophe • Mystical Factors
• Insufficient responses • Chance and events
(5) External Threats
• Other complex systems
• Intruders Source: Tainter, 1968, p. 43
Alternatives to Collapse –
Proposed to the Class (NC)
• Knowledge as problem solving
• Knowledge as problem creation
• Anticipatory tools and behaviors
• Technological investments
• Increased efficiency
• Can we recognize too high marginal
costs?
ONCE MORE:
Requisites for Sustainable Development
DE-MASSIFICATION
DE-SPACIALIZATION
DE-CENTRLIZATION
DIS-AGGREGATION
DE-NATIONALIZATION
DIS-INTERMEDIATION
Source: J.S. Brown and P. Druid, The Social Life of Information (2000)
Hyphen added for emphasis – not in the original
Comments on the TAINTER argument:
Why Investments in complexity yield a
declining marginal return
• Increasing size of the bureaucracies
• Increasing specialization of bureaucracies
• Cumulative nature of organizational
solutions
• Increasing taxation
• Increasing costs of legitimizing activities
• Increasing costs of internal control and
external defense
II. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
Sustainability Science
Advance basic understanding of the dynamics of
human-environment systems in order to
Facilitate the design, development, implementation, and
assessment of policy and strategy to facilitate transitions to
sustainability in localized and globalized contexts
particular places and contexts;
Enhance conenctions between (i) research and innovation
(ii) relevant policy and management (iii) in national and
international contexts.
Source: Based on and extended from US-NAS materials
Goals of Sustainability Science
• Knowledge structuring
• Coordination of data
• Multidisciplinary cooperation
• Contextualization – of the above
• Internationalization – of the above
Source: Based on and extended from US-NAS materials
Challenges to Sustainability Science
Specifying**:
• Nature of the challenge
• System boundary
• System components
• System behavior
• Time horizon
• Normative Underpinnings National &
International Linkages
• Institutional Linkages
** Lecture Notes
17.181-17.182 Spring 2008
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Spring 2009
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Knowledge Matters**
z Generally speaking, ‘knowledge’ refers to recognized
considerations (facts, data, observations, theories
etc.), where the essential criterion is ‘recognition’.
z Among the various meanings accorded to the term
‘domain’ by Webster’s Dictionary, one of the most
relevant to the present discussion is this: “the set over
which a function is defined”, and a second is “the set
of elements to which a mathematical or logical variable
is limited”.
** Lecture Notes
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
1
2
Knowledge Intensity of Economic Activities
-Clear evidence of shift toward knoweldge
intensity toward end of 20th century
- If knowledge is power, we must harness its
power toward sustainability and survival
- Importance of treating knowledge and its
deployment as a critical assett
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
3
Knowledge as Power
According to Webster’s dictionary, to “know” is to “hold
something in one’s mind as true or as being what it purport
to be”…[this] ”implies a sound logical or factual basis”[and
it also means] ”to be convinced of….”
Accordingly, what is ‘known’ is that which is ‘generally
recognized….’?
We extend this standard view of knowledge to take into
account a cluster of understandings that we refer to as a
knowledge system.
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
•
An organized structure & dynamic process to
enhanced by a set of iterations to enable advances
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
Knowledge System - Defined
(a) generate & represent content
(b) domain specific or relevant, with
(c) logical connections between content
of knowledge to its value (utility)
(d)
(e) subject to criteria of relevance, reliability,
and quality
4
Giving that knowledge
can no longer be viewed
simply as a ‘residual’ –
companion to the
proverbial ‘technology
factor’ in the production
function – but central to
economic performance,
in some sectors it is a
driving force.
5
Essentiality:
11
High
Low
Low High
Enhancing
Value
Extending Content
Gains from Knowledg
Gains from Knowledge-
-Intensit
Intensity
Supports Sustainability by
Reducing Barriers to Access
Basic proposition between content and value in schematic form,
(a) in the most generic terms, and (b) with reference to more
specific activities that provide the ‘engine’ for the linkages.
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
The Sustainability Knowledge Transition
z From ‘supply chain’ to ‘knowledge chain’
z From material production to meeting societal
needs
z From isolated understanding to increased value
due to knowledge deployment
z From knowledge creation to knowledge
diffusion through networking practices
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
6
Sustainability as a
“Knowledge Domain”
Economic growth theory seen in a global context seems to
frame processes of growth as seen by those on the ‘top’ of
global social and political systems rather than by those at
the ‘bottom’, nationally or internationally.
We focus on the knowledge base related to matters of
‘sustainability’ and to question the wisdom of the economic
growth model sees ‘more’ as a strategic imperative subject
only to efficiency
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
7
ng 2009
w
ledge
ue
Raw Information
Access Embedded knowledge
Connect Knowledge Systems
Refine Knowledge tools
Extendin
Gain
Gain
8 17.181-17.182 Spri © NChoucri - MIT
High
Low
Low
High
Knowledge
Value
Knowledge Content
Knowledge Value
Knowledge Value-
-Chain
Chain
Web-based models & tools
Repeat Value Creation Dynamic Knowledge &
Value Creation
Contextualize Knowledge
Understand K-value
Evaluate & Update
High
Low
Low High
Enhancing
Value
g Content
s from Knowledge Network
s from Knowledge Network
Supports S
Reducing B
Raw Information
Access Embedded knowledge
Connect Knowledge Systems
Refine Knowledge tools
Basic ambiguity of sustainability
Explosion of information on sustainability
Gaps in infrastructure conditions
in the industrial and developing countries
Impediments to the provision of local knowledge
‘Knowledge-bias’ from Industrial Countries’
The matter of language on the Internet
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
Barriers to Knowledge on Sustainability
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
sources
6.
9
Conceptual ambiguities – provide a conceptual
framework to capture current understandings of key
develop a knowledge
provision process that is coupled with quality
controls and content consistency checks.
- partnerships with
knowledge providers in various parts of the world
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
Solution Strategy to Knowledge Barriers
1
issues and interconnections,
2. Explosion of information -
3. Infrastructures differences
10
....continued
impediments to the provision of local knowledge.
‘knowledge-bias’ from Industrial Countries’ sources
develop and implement cyber partnerships with
Internet is an English-speaking medium in a world that
is non-English speaking - develop multilingual functions
to enable the provision and distribution of knowledge
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
New Strategy for Reducing Barriers
4.
web-based mechanism for enabling inputs&
submissions from LDC to world
5.
institutions from developing regions
6.
that does not original in English & vice versa,
11
Mapping ‘Sustainability’
The strategy we have adopted with regard to the sustainability
differentiate between and among:
o International Responses and Global Accord
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
Conceptual Framework –
domains is to
o human activities in various forms
o known consequences and problems
o Scientific and technological solutions
o Socio-Economic, and Political solutions
12
13
The Basics – Continued
• Recognizing that ‘everything’ is related to ‘everything else’,
nonetheless this unbundling approach allows us to see the
individual pieces (i.e. the parts), as well as the constituted whole
of a complex system.
• As a “map,” GSSD shows routes as well as obstacles (and
obstacle courses); it may also provoke new ideas about new
options (and resolution of obstacles both existent and emerging).
• GSSD serves as a “map” to capture and “locate” both the fact of
diversity and the changes of diversity over time and across space.
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
14
Knowledge based - Internet Resources
K n o w le d g e
P ro vid e rs
H o w is K n o w le d g e
P ro vid e d ?
W h a t D a ta - A c c e s s &
q u a lity?
W h y c o lle c te d & b y
w h o m ?
H o w to re d u c e
in fo rm a tio n b a rrie rs ?
W h e n to fa c ilita te d a ta
a c c e s s & re u s e ?
S o u rc e : A d a p te d fro m H a rry Z h u
T h e
In te rn e t
M illio n s o f s o u rc e s
W e b/
In te rn e t
G S S D
K n o w le d g e
B a s e
•S em i structu red
•Q uality contro lled
•W ide co verag e
•D iverse perspectives
•M ulti-data types
S e a rc h &
R e trie va l
•S elect retu rned
abstracts
•S ubm it query
connect to source
•D eterm ine utility
S u b m it S ite s
• S ta ke h o ld e rs
•In stitu tio n s
•G o v e rn m e n ts
•B u sin e ss & In d u stry
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
Knowledge Network
z Organized system of discrete actors
with knowledge producing capacity
z Combined through common organizing
principles
z Actors retain individual autonomy
z Network enhances value of knowledge
to actors & further expands knowledge
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
15
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1
2
Agriculture
3
Agriculture
Agriculture
4
5
Agriculture
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The Core – High Level Definition
We define sustainable development as:
• The process of meeting the needs of
current and future generations
• Without undermining
• The resilience of the life-supporting
properties of nature and the integrity (or
cohesion) of social systems”.
What are the properties of this definition?
KEY PIECES
• Dimensions
• Processes
• Principles
• Output
DIMENSIONS
Extending this definition further, in this course we differentiate
among four dimensions of sustainability as follows:
1 2
Ecology Economy
SD
3 4
Governance Institutions
PROCESSES
1. Ecological systems with
- balance
- resilience
2. Economic systems with ecological congruence
- eco-production
- eco-consumption
3. Governance modes with
- participation
- accountability
4. Institutional performance with
- adaptation
- feedback
17.181-17.182 Spring 2009
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
as an
INTEGRATED DYNAMIC PROCESS
(3)
PRINCIPLES
(4)
QUTPUT
CONDllt01NS
N.Chcrual,MIT, TedmMgyMdO
s
- Program,Jan. IS90
PRINCIPLES*
• ECO-EFFICIENCY
• ACCOUNTABILITY
* To guide decision and policy
The Proposition
The core proposition of this course is that:
If all conditions hold,
Then the system is (or can be) sustainable.
What can be done?
GENERIC and ESSENTIAL?
DE- MASSIFICATION
DE- SPACIALIZATION
DE- CENTRLIZATION
DIS- AGGREGATION
DE- NATIONALIZATION
DIS- INTERMEDIATION
Source: J.S. Brown and P. Druid, The Social Life of Information (2000)
The Implications
(1) Sustainability conditions and strategies are
context-dependent
Subject to definitions and system boundary.
(2) There are alternative paths to sustainability
(3) There are some specific criteria for process,
path, and expected outcomes
Depending on the state profile
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What is Sustainabilitv?
.
I
The abilitv
u of humanity to ensure that it meets the needs of
the present without compromising the abilitv
m2 of future
generations to meet their own needs. [Bruntland, 19871
Preservation of productive capacitv
L. for the foreseeable
future. [Solow, 19921
* Biophysical sustainability means maintaining or improving
the integritv
L. of the life support svstem
a of earth. [Fuwa,
19951
A dvnamic
rn harmony
tJ between the equitable availability of
energy-intensive goods and services to all people and the
preservation of the earth for future generations [Tester, et
al. 20051
Prepared by E. Drrtke, MTT Energyand Environment Lab, 2006
What are the major material concerns?
Global Energy consumption is growing because:
- Population is growing
- Energy use per capita is growing - especially in developing
countries
Major fossil energy sources have problems
- Securitv
U of supplvtprice
L
. stability
U (esp. petroleum)
- Depletion concerns
- Climate impacts
Energy access is unequally
C distributed
Global economv is dependent on present levels of fossil energv
prices
L.
& availabilitv
V - change will slow economic growth
Prepared by E. Drake. VTT Energy and Environn~cntLab. 2 0 6
What are the major material concerns?
* Global Energy consumption is growing because:
- Population is growing
- Energv use per capita is growing -especially in developing
countiies
Major fossil energv
- &
' sources have problems
- Security of supplylprice stability (esp. petroleum)
- Depletion concerns
- Climate impacts
Energv
O access is unequally distributed
Global economy is dependent on present levels of fossil energy
prices & availability -change will slow economic growth
!'repared by E. Drake, MI
T f?neqqand Envimmnent Lab. 2006
One: Governance Matters
e Effective governance systems are essential
-necessary but not sufficient -for
managing entities under stress
Almost all developing countries are already
under stress
Strengthening governance and institutional
performance is a necessity not a luxury
MIT
Relationship Between Institutional Quality & National Income
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: World Bank. World Development Report, 2003. pg. 43
Equal, Population-Based, and Wealth-Based Voting Formulas
Image remove due to copyright restrictions.
Source: Rourke, John T. International Politics on the World Stage. McGraw-Hill, 2002. pg. 246
Evolution of Water Withdrawals Through the Twentieth Century
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
World Populations in Developed and Developing Countries: 1950-2050
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
Vertical and Horizontal Linkages in the Context of Indicators of Sustainable Development
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
Countries at Risk of Conflict
Global map st conflict risk
Source: Mapplecroft Maps
Former Yugoslav Citizens with Temporary Protection in Europe
Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
Intragenerational Principles
Reduce gross inequities between the poorest and wealthiest
both nationallv
* and globally
- Meet the basic needs of the poorest with food, shelter, health care,
clean water, access to electricity, education, opportunitv
.v for work,
etc,
- Avoid exploitation of poorer countrylrqion resources and labor to
create even greater wealth for the richest
Provide ways to protect the common good (social,
environmeita~,
economic) locally and globally
.. through
national and international governancelcooperation
- Preserve natural ecoswtems
a against unconstrained development
- Avoid interference with natural balances in the atmosphere, the
oceans, and the arctic regions
- Maintain stable institutions that protect human rights, adjudicate
conflicts9and allow responsible trade and market economy activities
Prepared hy E. O~.ake,
MIT Encrgy and Environmet.11Cab. 2006
Intergenerational Principles
* Trustee: Every generation has an obligation to protect
interests of futkre generations
Chain of obligation: Primarv obligation is to provide
for the needs of the living a
dsucceeding generations.
Near term concrete hazards have prioritv
Y over long
term hvpothetical
C hazards
* Precautionarv Principle: Do not pursue actions that
pose a realistic threat of irreversible harm or
catastrophic consequences unless there is some
compelling or countervailing need to benefit either
current or future generations
Prepared by E. h k e , MIT Energy and Enviro~irnenf
b h . 2006
The Core – High Level Definition
We define sustainable development as:
– The process of meeting the needs of current and
future generations
– Without undermining
– The resilience of the life-supporting properties of
nature and the integrity (or cohesion) of social
systems”.
What are the properties of this definition?
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ASSUMPTIONS
If knowledge is power, we must harness
the power of knowledge for managing social
transformations.
Knowledge e-networking creates new
possibilities for all types of empowerment
eNetworks are powerful catalysts
for voicing social demands & forging
development trajectories
N. Choucri
MIT
What is GSSD?
What is GSSD?
z Global Knowledge e-Network of e-
Networks
z Structured Knowledge about Sustainability
z System for Multilingual e-Networking
z Decentralized Knowledge Provision
N. Choucri
MIT
Global Context
Global Context
2009
2009
z Globalization & World-wide eConnectivity
z Increased Knowledge Intensity
z Decentralized Knowledge Provision &
Management
z Persistent Gaps between Knowledge & Policy
z New Technologies for Knowledge Networking
z Search for ‘Leapfrogging Strategies’
N. Choucri
MIT
Sustainability Challenges
A serious problems facing decision-makers,
scholars, & analysts is inability to access to the
body of relevant and contextually rich knowledge.
Simply locating knowledge of relevance often
among to a serious problem
N. Choucri
MIT
II. The IT Connection – Why e-
Tools?
Supporting Sustainability
• de-materialization
• de-spacialization
• de-centralization &
• de-massification
Reducing Disconnects
• Information & Use
• Stakeholders & Government
• Planning Agencies & Activities
MIT
• Policies & Feedback
N. Choucri
N. Choucri
Internet GlobaI Infrastructure Diffusion
Original graph was removed due to copyright restrictions.
The graph on the website below is a replacement.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/eszter/177313399/
N. Choucri
MIT
High
Low
Low High
Knowledge
Value
Knowledge Content
Knowledge Value
Knowledge Value-
-Chain
Chain
Raw Information
Access Embedded knowledge
Connect Knowledge Systems
Refine Knowledge tools
Web-based models & tools
Repeat Value Creation
Dynamic Knowledge &
Value Creation
Contextualize Knowledge
Understand K-value
Evaluate & Update
Identifying Problems & Creating
Solutions – Select Issues
- What ‘problems’?
- What ‘solution’ strategies?
- Ontology Matters – Knowledge & its
Organization
- Knowledge Provision, Sharing,
Management and Distribution
N. Choucri
MIT
N. Choucri
MIT
CONCEPTUAL AMBIGUITIES
EXPLOSION of INFORMATION
UNEVEN e-FACILITIES
LIMITED LOCAL CONTENT
ENGLISH DOMINATES INTERNET
Specific Barriers to
e-Knowledge for Sustainability
Specific Barriers to
e-Knowledge for Sustainability
The World Today
350 Million People Speak English
as their Native Language
5.7 Billion Speak Something Else
Source: The World Bank
N. Choucri
MIT
What does GSSD ‘Do’?
1. Web-based system of hierarchical, nested, domain
representation for complex systems
2. Selective portable knowledge base, multi-disciplinary
perspectives, updated as needed
3. Diverse Navigation & Search Options over the
knowledge-base extracted from the Internet
4. Customized workflow for multi-lingual knowledge
networking and management
N. Choucri
MIT
GSSD - Strategies
to Reduce e-Barriers
• Providing Coherent Conceptual Framework
- Multidisciplinary views
- diverse aspects of ‘sustainability’
• Managing Explosion of Information
- Knowledge screening for quality
- Cross indexing of content
• Enabling Multilingualism and Localization
- Mirror sites
MIT
- Partnerships & in-kind contributions
N. Choucri
What does this require?
A. Knowledge Network and
Networking
B. Ontology of Sustainability –
Structuring and Framing
C. Evolving Knowledge Base
N. Choucri
MIT
A. Knowledge Network
z Computer-assisted organized systems of discrete
actors with knowledge producing capacity
z Combined through common organizing principles
z Whereby actors retain their individual autonomy
z Networks enhance value of knowledge to actors
& motivate further knowledge expansion
N. Choucri
MIT
B. Knowledge Base –
e-Library & url’s
• Selected from evolving Internet Materials
of roughly 250 Institutional Holdings
• Over 3000 Indexed Content, with
with Multi-disciplinary & Diverse Views
• Include concepts & theories, indicators & measures,
models & cases, agreements & organizations,
policy, strategy & decision
N. Choucri
MIT
C. Ontology of Sustainability
z Domains – topics
z Dimensions – issues
z Connectivity – linkages
z Frames – skeletons & slots to fill out
z Knowledge base – e-library’
N. Choucri
MIT
Conceptual Framework - Slices
Mobility
Agriculture
Industry
Land Use
Water
Governance
Conflicts
Urbanization
Consumption
Unmet Needs
Population
Migration
Trade
Energy
N. Choucri
MIT
Industry
Conceptual Framework - Rings
Activities
Problems
Technical Solutions
Social Solutions
International Responses
Social Solutions
Technical Solutions
Problems
Activities
International Responses
N. Choucri
MIT
N. Choucri
N. Choucri
MIT
MIT
The Frame System
Domain – The Topics*
Dimension – The Issues**
Intersection of
Domain and Dimension
Notes: * Recall Figure 4.9
** Recall Figure 4.10
GSSD
Organization
Provision
Management
Retrieval
of
Knowledge
MIT
N. Choucri
MIT
Agriculture
Forest &
Land Use
Water Use &
Sources
Conflicts
& Wars
Urbanization
Consumption
Unmet Basic
Needs
Population
Trade & Finance
Governance &
Institutions
Migration &
Dislocation
Energy Use
& Sources
Industry Mobility
Industry & Manufacturing
Example
Industry & Manufacturing
Example
Slice:
Industry
Rings:
Activities &
Conditions
Sustainability Problems
Scientific & Technical Solutions
Social, Economic, Political,
& Regulatory Solutions
N. Choucri
MIT
N. Choucri
MIT
Agriculture
Forest &
Land Use
Water Use &
Sources
Conflicts
& Wars
Urbanization
Consumption
Unmet Basic
Needs
Population
Trade & Finance
Governance &
Institutions
Migration &
Dislocation
Energy Use
& Sources
Industry Mobility
Conceptual Framework
Conceptual Framework
International Response &
Global Accords
Conventions Private-Public
Partners
Trade Regimes
Economic
Tech. Agreements Adjustments
Agenda 21 Monitoring
Population Policies Investment
Modes
Dev. Mechanisms
Institutional
Peace Strategies Strategies
Codes of Conduct
Environment Accords
N. Choucri
MIT
N. Choucri
MIT
N. Choucri
MIT
Agriculture
N. Choucri
MIT
Agriculture
N. Choucri
MIT
Agriculture
N. Choucri
MIT
Agriculture
N. Choucri
MIT
N. Choucri
MIT
N. Choucri
MIT
Graphical Options
Graphical Options
N. Choucri
MIT
Current e-Networks Mirror Sites
N. Choucri
MIT
N. Choucri
MIT
N. Choucri
MIT
GSSD in China
GSSD in China
Our Common Challenge
• Make Knowledge Widely Available
• Organize Masses of Materials
• Meet Needs of Diverse Groups
• Increase Local Access to
Global Knowledge
• Increase Global Access to Local
Knowledge
N. Choucri
MIT
Knowledge for Transitions to
Knowledge for Transitions to
Sustainability
Sustainability
z From ‘supply chain’ to ‘knowledge chain’
z From material production to meeting social
needs
z From isolated understanding to increased
value due to knowledge deployment
z From knowledge creation to knowledge
diffusion through networking practices
N. Choucri
MIT
Conclusion
Conclusion
New Knowledge Frontiers
New Knowledge Frontiers
z Collaborative Knowledge Management
z Multi-lingual Search Functionality
z Mirror Site Locations
z Software Agents for Knowledge
z Multi-Media & Distance e-Learning
z New Venues for e-Governance
z Novel Modes of e-Participation & Voicing
z Other?
N. Choucri
MIT
N. Choucri
MIT
BACKUPS
N. Choucri
MIT
FRAMES – ‘FILLING the SLOTS”
From Activities & Conditions to Sustainability Problems
Soil erosion &
degradation;
Environmentally-
polluting fertilizers land overuse;
Forest destruction
Depletion of non-
renewable resources;
Pollution, wastes,
ecological effects
Industry
ACTIVITIES & CONDITIONS
Unmet
basic needs
Conflicts
& wars
Water sources
& uses
Forest & Land
use
Agriculture
Trade&
finance
Energy use
& sources
ACTIVITIES & CONDITIONS
Hazardous wastes
Land , air & water pollution;
Ozone depletion;
Environmental
impacts
SUSTAINABI LITY PROBLEMS
SUSTAINABI LITY PROBLEMS
A
H
C
R
S
E
O
U
R
C
E S
L
Y
G
O
L
O
N
E
T
Human impacts on
sources & needs;
Natural causes
& impacts;
Joint human &
natural causes
Governance &
institutions
Constraints on
peace-keeping;
Physical destruction;
Social marginalization
Migration &
dislocation
Population
Environmental
impacts of trade;
Impacts of trade
competitiveness
Consumption
Urbanization
Social & resource
constraints relative to demand;
Gender & age-specific problems
Poor quality of life;
Food shortages;
Health hazards;
Disease
Resource use
& depletion;
Wasteaccumulation
Poverty expansion;
Social stress;
Environment & health
effects; Socioeconomic
dislocations;Global
change & GHG
emissions
Casualties;
Weapons trade& use;
Damage to natural
environments;
Conflicts over
resources
Transport &
Mobility
Urban pollution & natural
resource shortages;
Spatial dynamics
Stresses related to
changes in group composition;
Changes in density & pattern;
Distribution tensions;
Political shifts
N. Choucri
MIT
Mobility
Agriculture
Land &
Forests
Water
Conflicts & wars
Urbanization
Consumption
Unmet
basic needs
Population
Migration
& dislocation
Governance
& institutions
Energy
Trade &
Finance
Industry
CFC substitutes;
Structural economic
changes;
Efficient mobility
systems
Eco-efficiency & safety
measures; Markets &
mechanisms
for cleaner mobility;
Emission standards
& audits
Sustainable
agricultural practices;
Agriculture finance systems;
Improved food distribution
& finance methods
Limiting
hazardous chemicals
& fertilizers; Advances
in agriculture methods
Improved storage
& transport
Improved legislation;
Agroforestry forms;
Forest management
programs
New
techniques
for forest use
& reforestation;
Sustainable logging practices
Information
technologies
Planning &
management;
Supply-side alternatives;
New technological
approaches for damage
response; Use of
technological options for
peace-making &
peace-keeping
Effective
arms control;
War insurance;
Contingency plans
against violence;
Meeting international
codes
Waste management;
Urban services;
Strengthen urban
communities
Improve urban
infrastructure;
Reduce population
concentrations
Waste
management &
minimization; Improve
production processes
Changes in
consumer behavior;
Mechanisms for
consumption change
Access to
effective
technology;
Strengthen
business support
Poverty alleviation
assistance;
Enhanced capacity building;
Responsive legal systems
Fertility
management;
Strengthen
health services
Education;
Improvement of women’s
opportunities & skills;
Age-specific support programs;
Safety nets
Responsive
infrastructure strategies;
Resettlement
strategies
Migration
policies & strategies;
Safeguards to human &
natural habitats;
Migrant support
programs
Improved technologies
& methods for
maintaining peace
Facilitate security &
economic cooperation;
Improve political
participation;
Strengthen
peace-keeping
Alternative
production technologies;
Efficient use; Pollution
control; Renewable
non-polluting sources
Direct regulatory
control;
Market based
strategies;
Government R&D
Cleaner
production; Industrial
ecology; Substitution of
functions; Waste
minimization
&
Improved toxic release
inventories; Standards &
codes; Market based
incentives; Best Practices
;
Cleaner production;
Eco-efficiency
measures
Market strategy;
Trade measures & policies;
Improved accounting &
measurements;
Provisions for dispute
resolution
SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL
SOCIAL, ECONOMIC,
POLITICAL, & REGULATORY
TYPES of SOLUTION STRATEGIES
TYPES of SOLUTION STRATEGIES
Improved
products &
process; Improved
packaging & shipment;
Demand-side
management
Market strategies
& mechanisms;
Public & private
interactions;
Improved
information systems
N. Choucri
N. Choucri
MIT
MIT
The Frame System
Domain – The Topics*
Dimension – The Issues**
Intersection of
Domain and Dimension
Notes: * Recall Figure 4.9
** Recall Figure 4.10
GSSD
Organization
Provision
Management
Retrieval
of
Knowledge
MIT

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sus lecture notes.pdf

  • 1. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 2. - 1 Sustainable Development: Theory & Policy Week 8 From Sustainability Problems to Solution Strategies Professor Nazli Choucri 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri MIT
  • 3. - Contextualization Introducing GSSD From Problems to Solutions The Transformation Problem Contents 1. 2. 3. 4. 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri MIT 2
  • 4. 1. Contextualization • Globalization & World-wide eConnectivity • Increased Knowledge Intensity • New Technologies for Knowledge Networking • Dow Jones Indices of Corporate Sustainability • Sustainability Measures for Decision • Persistent Gaps Local-Global Gaps 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT 3
  • 5. The Argument Convergence of global trends is transforming traditional knowledge practices, creating new research modes & accelerating ‘new knowledge’. Such transformations may reduce bias in international research and knowledge-gaps world- wide. But research designs must reflect fundamentals of diversity, complexity, globalization & localization. 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT 4
  • 6. • Knowledge of Sustainability • Knowledge for Sustainability Global knowledge meta-networking Structured knowledge on sustainability System for using “state-of-the-art” knowledge Decision support collaborative platform 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT 8.2 Introducing the Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD) management 5
  • 7. Knowledge About What? • Human activities & conditions • Sustainability problems • Scientific & technological solutions • Economic, political & social solutions • International actions & responses 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT 6
  • 8. 7 Conceptual Framework - Rings Activities Problems Technical Solutions Social Solutions Social Solutions Technical Solutions Problems Activities International Responses International Responses 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
  • 9. 8 17.181-17.182 y y p pm Land Use Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT Copyright © 2000 MIT Global S stem for Sustainabilit Develo ment Center for Innovation in Product Development N. Choucri Copyright © 1999 GSSD ™ MIT Conceptual Framework - Slices Mobility Agriculture Water Governance Conflicts Urbanization Consumption Unmet Needs Population Migration Energy Trade Industry
  • 10. 9 Population Trade & Finance Governance & Institutions Migration & Dislocation Energy Use & Sources Industry Conceptual Framework Conceptual Framework Mobility Agriculture Forest & Land Use Water Use & Sources Conflicts & Wars Urbanization Unmet Basic Consumption Needs 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
  • 11. 10 SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEMS l i l finance & sources Environmental impacts R S E O U institutions Constraints on i i li i Migration & dislocation Environmental impacts of trade; Impacts of trade competitiveness & pattern; Distribution tensions; Political shifts FROM ACTIVITIES & CONDITIONS TO Depletion of non- renewable resources; Pollution, wastes, eco og ca ef fects Trade & Energy use Hazardous wastes Land , air & water pollution; Ozone depletion Governance & peace-keeping; Physical destruction; Soc al marg na zat on Social & resource constraints relative to demand; Gender & age-specific problems Stresses related to changes in group composition; Changes in density Environmentall Unmet basic needs Conflicts Water sources & uses use i l ; A H C R C E S L Y G O L O N E T & impacts; Joint human & Population Disease Resource use l i Social stress; ic ; l emissions Casualties; ; l Conflicts over resources Mobili Soil erosion & degradation; y- polluting fertilizers land overuse; Forest destruction Industry ACTIVITIES & CONDITIONS & wars Forest & Land A gr cu ture ACTIVITIES & CONDITIONS SU STAI N ABI L I T Y PR O BL E M S SU STAI N ABI L I T Y PR O BL E M S Human impacts on sources & needs; Natural causes natural causes Consumption Urbanization Poor quality of life; Food shortages; Health hazards; & depletion; Waste accum u at on Poverty expansion; Environment & health effects; Socioeconom dislocations Globa change & GHG Weapons trade & use Damage to natura environments; Transport & ty Urban pollution & natural resource shortages; Spatial dynamics 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
  • 12. - From Problems to Solutions 8.3 Nested System 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri MIT 11
  • 13. 12 Education; f women’s opportunities & skills; ific support programs Safety nets Safeguards to human & itats; Facilitate security & economic cooperation; Improve political participation; Strengthen peace-k Direct regulat control; Market based strategies; Government R&D Improved toxic release inventories; Standards & codes; Market based incentives; Best Practices ; Market strategy; unting & nts; Provisio SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICA Improvement o ; ive t polic natural hab port Improved technologies & methods for maintaining peace eeping on technologies; on control; Renewable non-polluting sources ory ustrial bstitution of & n; Trade measures & policies; Improved acco measureme resolution ing & shipment; Energy Age-spec Respons infrastructure s rategies; Resettlement Migration Migrant sup programs producti Efficient use; Polluti ecology; Su Cleaner productio Eco-efficiency products & roved packag Governance & institutions strategies ies & strategies; Alternative production; Ind measures ns for dispute Improved process; Imp Mobility Agriculture Land & Forests Water Conflicts & wars Urbanization Consumption Unmet basic needs Population Migration & dislocation Trade & Finance Industry CFC substitutes; Structural economic changes; Efficient mobility systems Eco-efficiency & safet measures; Markets & mechanisms for cleaner mobility; Emission standards & audits Sustainable agricultural practices; Agriculture finance systems; Improved food distribution & finance methods Limiting hazardous chemicals & fertilizers; Advances in agriculture methods Improved storage & transport Improved legislation; Agroforestry forms; Forest management programs New techniques for forest use & reforestation; Sustainable logging practices Information technologies Planning & management; Supply-side alternatives; New technological approaches for damage response; Use of technological options for peace-making & peace-keeping Effective arms control; War insurance; Contingency plans against violence; Meeting international codes Waste management; Urban services; Strengthen urban communities Improve urban infrastructure; Reduce population concentrations Waste management & minimization; Improve production processes Changes in consumer behavior; Mechanisms for consumption change Access to effective technology; Strengthen business support Poverty alleviation assistance; Enhanced capacity building; Responsive legal systems Fertility management; Strengthen health services Cleaner functions; Waste minimization L SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, & REGULATORY TYPES of SOLUTION STRATEGIES TYPES of SOLUTION STRATEGIES Demand-side management Market strategies & mechanisms; Public & private interactions; Improved information systems 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
  • 14. 13 GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGIES Hazardous Activities Partnership Economic & Strategies Institutional i Strategies Joint & Agreements Formal Constraints on Private/Public Adjustment Targets Population Ass Management of Migration International Pollution Control Agreements Sustainabil ty Implementation Voluntary Agreements Trade Regimes Accords & Institutions f Di i International Monitoring of Hazardous iti & Resettlement International Codes of Fi Innovative International Investment Strategies Strategies istance & International Benchmarki Global AGENDA 21 New Global INTERNATIONAL RESPONSES and GLOBAL ACCORDS Conventions Agreements or Technology ffus on, Advance & Access Activ es Coordination for Reconstruction nancial & Investment Conduct Dispute Resolution Procedures Conflict Management ng Systems Conferences 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT
  • 15. - Methodological & Strategic Issues Concept & Theories Indicators & Measures Models & Case Studies Agreements & Organizations Policy, Strategy & Responses 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri MIT 14
  • 16. 8.4 The Transformation Problem Assets vs. Liabilities Sustainability or Sustainable ‘Growth” Paths, Options, Trajectories 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT 15
  • 17. Valuing all assets: human, 1. The problem is how to deploy national assets and manage national liabilities toward sustainability 2. This involves financial and non-financial assets all forms of resources (human, natural, & economic) can be used to serve national goals Diversity: in empirical manifestation regarding 4. Sustainability as a generic problem for industrial 17.181-17.182 Spring 2006 © NChoucri - MIT capital, natural, environmental 3. transformation problem and developing countries 16
  • 18. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 19. Sustainable Development 17.181-17.182 Week 12 Outline I. THE CHINA CASE • Sustainability Issues • Policy Priorities? II. MODELS of VALUE III. LEGACIES of 20th CENTURY IV. NEW GLOBAL AGENDA
  • 20. I. The China Case
  • 21. "The number of China's elderly is ballooning thanks to improvements in medicine and sanitation, while the number of people born after the government's one-child policy went into effect in 1979 is diwndling. China's immense workforce, key to today's boom, will shrink after 2015." Source: Karen E. Lange. “Shrinking Workforce” National Geographic; May 2008; Pg. 98.
  • 22. "But by 2050 close to a third of China's citizens will be over 60--three times the current proportion. With little social security and few pensions to ease the burden, China's only children will have to support two parents (and in many case four grandparents) apiece--a heavy load even for urban factory workers, who typically save a quarter of their wages." Source: Karen E. Lange. “Shrinking Workforce” National Geographic; May 2008; Pg. 98.
  • 23. Image removed due to copyright restrictions. Source: Karen E. Lange. “Shrinking Workforce” National Geographic; May 2008; Pg. 98.
  • 24. Hungry for Oil "There's a new contender for the world's oil...China's demand has helped drive up oil prices to record highs, causing pain at the gas pump for drivers around the world." Source: “Hungry for Oil” National Geographic. May 2008; pg. 172.
  • 25. Countries Exporting Oil to China: 1996 Image removed due to copyright restrictions. Source: “Hungry for Oil” National Geographic. May 2008; pg. 172+173.
  • 26. Countries Exporting Oil to China: 2006 Image removed due to copyright restrictions. Source: “Hungry for Oil” National Geographic. May 2008; pg. 172+173.
  • 27. II. MODELS of VALUE • How to capture the value of an investment • What principle should be used to determine access and distribution of that which generates ‘value’? • Should everything go through the market place?
  • 28. Models of Value* (1) the proprietary principle model (2) the open-access model (3) the knowledge commons model (4) the value in networking model. (5) the value paradox model * Source: N Choucri, CyberPolitics, MIT Press, under review.
  • 29. III. Some Legacies of 20th C. III. Some Legacies of 20th C. • More People • More Countries • More Voices & Demands • More IGO’s and NGO’s • More Trade • More Technology • More Energy Use • CO2 – GHGs – Pollution • More Environmental Awareness
  • 30. Technology - Issues • Persistent Globalization - People Goods, Services, Ideas, etc. Crossing Borders • “Glocalization” - Local impacts of Globalization • Global Race for Knowledge - Increased Knowledge Intensity in Wealth & Power • Reproducing Western Development
  • 31. Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
  • 32. Climate Change – Potential Effects • Differential impacts within & across countries – more burdens on the poor everywhere – more social cleavages • Erosion of governance & institutions – Loss of law and order – Growth of individual ‘self-help’ actions N. Choucri
  • 33. Carbon Emission 2002 www.worldmapper.org © Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan). Used with permission.
  • 34. Climate Change Index Climate Change Index for 189 C for 189 ountries Countries • The 10 countries of highest overall risk account for 2% of GHG Emission Djibouti, Egypt, Pakistan, Cuba, Iraq, Morocco, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Mozambique and Somalia. • Of the 31 countries with extreme risk, only 3 are industrial Netherlands, Canada & USA Source: Mapplecroft Maps The index consists of 3 equal components; (i) Coastal exposure; (ii) Inland exposure (iii) Health exposure. (iv) Socio-economic or other impacts not covered/. N. Choucri
  • 35. Distribution of CCI Impacts Distribution of CCI Impacts Source: Mapplecroft Maps N. Choucri
  • 36. Some Potential Dangers Some Potential Dangers Global sea levels rise as oceans warm & sea ice melts – uninhabitable conditions Increase in rainfall intensity will increase tropical storms – more risk of weather-relate disasters – Infectious disease Infrastructure must adapt to these changes – more social & economic pressures – more stresses on resources N. Choucri
  • 37. Violent Deaths - 2002 www.worldmapper.org © Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan). Used with permission.
  • 38. Self-Inflicted Deaths - 2002 © Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan). Used with permission. www.worldmapper.org
  • 39. Refugees - Countries of Origin 2003 © Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan). Used with permission. www.worldmapper.org
  • 40. IV. New Global Agenda • Salience of Environment Growth in Environmental Treaties • Framing New Objectives “Sustainable Development” • Re-Visiting the Fundamentals Equity Matters– Not Only Efficiency • Addressing New Realities Connecting Climate Change & Sustainability
  • 41. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 42. Sustainable Development 17.181-17.182 Week 11 Outline I. SATTELITES & SUSTAINABILITY • Africa Case – Student Presentations II. GLOBALIZATION (from Week 10) • Globalization • Sustainability Issues III. GLOBAL SYSTEM FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOP0MENT • What is it? • Why? How?
  • 43. I. SALLELITES & SUSTAIN ABILITY Danielle Comments by Brooke
  • 44. II. GLOBALIZATION Globalization refers to: The transformations in structure and processes Within and across states Shaped by the movement of goods, services, influence and effluents across national borders.
  • 45. Sources & Process These movements are rooted in the • differential and uneven patterns of growth and development across states. • These are commonplace in international contexts but can forge new realities if (a) they alter the structure of national economies and societies and /or (b) shape new forms of international interdependence.
  • 46. Dimensions of Globalization • Demographic – people crossing borders voluntary or otherwise • Resources - energy, raw materials, etc. • Knowledge & Technology – skills, ideas, equipment, management, organization, etc. • Economic - goods, services, capital, trade, financial transactions, production systems and structures • Communication - connectivity, reach, messaging etc. • Security – vulnerabilities, sensitivities, threats, etc. • Environmental - efflluents, emmissions of GHG’s etc.
  • 47. Derivative Dimensions • Cultural ‘flows’ • Political Concepts and Ideas • Religion and Faith and • Markets for Loyalties
  • 48. Consequences Over time, these realities will • Shape new spaces - arenas of interaction – and possibly conditions • Create pressures on existing Institutions • Forge new demands for governance.
  • 49. The Fundamentals • Cross-Border Movements Æ • Transformations Æ • Pressures of Impacts Æ • Strains on Institutional Mechanisms Æ • Demands for Governance Æ
  • 50. Constitutive Impacts This term refers to ‘strong’ effects of globalization – when all of this • Alters the structure of national economies • Changes international processes and structures • Creates new actors and configurations of national and international politics
  • 51. Constitutive Effects of Globalization • Demographic – new labor markets, new identities new societies, pressures on the social contract, even new states • Resources - new access to essentials fo power • Knowledge & Technology – leapfrogging stages of technological development, enhancing value added • Economic - transformations in consumption patterns, import demands, composition of goods and services, • Communication - creation of virtual communities, cyberpolitics, impacts for state authority, global civil society • Security – new fears, new $ allocations to manage fears • Environment - climate change, impacts on biosphere etc.
  • 52. Feedback Dynamics • Responses • Re-structurings • Re-alignments With respect to • Markets • Structure of Claims • Political Systems • Discretion over Decision-making
  • 53. Complexities of Globalization: Real & Virtual • Cases in the complexities of globalization – Flow types – Impacts on sending and receiving – Relevance to profiles – From state-based interactions to pervasive modalities • Different flows engender different forms of demands for regulation – Adaptive versus transformative • Brief introduction to four modalities of globalization – Trade, Migration, Environment, Cyberspace – Each manifesting different aspects of globalization and of governance challenges – Each rooted in activities of individuals within the state
  • 54. Level of Monitoring Heavily Monitored Relatively Unmonitored Trade Environment Cyberspace Migration Traditional Emergent
  • 55. Flow Type and Response to Flow Encouraged Discouraged Trade Cyberspace Environment Migration Tangible Intangible
  • 56. Interaction Bilateral / Dyadic Multilateral Object- oriented Trade Environment Orientation People- oriented Migration Cyberspace
  • 57. Pressures from Globalization Domains Globalization Type Interaction Mode Flow Type Target or Management Internationally Managed Trade Traditional Bilateral Tangible goods and services Object High Migration Traditional Bilateral Tangible/ People People Variable Environment Emergent Global Intangible Effleunts Low moving toward some form of accord Cyberspace Emergent Global Intangible People and Networks Low with little trends toward formalization
  • 58. Globalization Pressures On Governance Processes Migration Trade Environment New Governance Structure Cyberspace Original Governance Structure Cyber-enabled Capabilities* Sources of Solutions to Pressures *Cyber-enabled capabilities includes electronic advances, not just cyberspace-enabled capabilities.
  • 59. Cyber-Based Solutions Migration Trade Environment New Governance Efforts Globalization Pressures On Governance Initial Governance Processes Cyberspace Cyber-enabled Capabilities
  • 60. III. Global System for Sustainable Development
  • 61. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 62. Courtesy of Nazli Choucri and MIT Press. Used with permission. Source: Nazli Choucri. Global Accord: Environmental Challenges and International Responses, pp. 31.
  • 63. Distribution of States Across Profile Groups (1/2) Profile 1 Profile 2 Profile 3 Profile 4 Profile 5 Profile 6 Algeria Albania Afghanistan Bangladesh Finland Antigua and Barbuda Angola Armenia Australia Costa Rica New Zealand Austria Argentina Azerbaijan Canada Dominica Norway Bahrain Belarus Benin Estonia Dominican Republic United States Barbados Bosnia and Herzegovina Iceland El Salvador Sweden Belgium Bhutan Bulgaria Oman Grenada United States Croatia Bolivia Burundi Saudi Arabia Jamaica Cyprus Botswana Cambodia Lebanon Czech Republic Brazil Cape Verde Lithuania Denmark Burkina Faso China Malaysia France Cameroon Comoros Maldives Germany Central African Republic Cote d'Ivoire Marshall Islands Greece Chad Egypt, Arab Rep. Mauritius Hong Kong, China Chile Ethiopia Hungary Colombia Gambia, The Philippines Ireland Congo, Dem. Rep. Georgia Poland Israel Congo, Rep. Ghana Sri Lanka Italy Djibouti Guatemala St. Lucia Japan Ecuador Uzbekistan Korea, Rep.
  • 64. • Source: for the slide “Distribution of States Across Profile Groups (1/2). *See Choucri and North (1993) for initial specification; and see Wickboldt and Choucri (2006) for extension of the logic to differentiate empirically among countries within each of the profile group.
  • 65. Distribution of States Across Profile Groups (2/2) Profile 1 Profile 2 Profile 3 Profile 4 Profile 5 Profile 6 Venezuela, RB Haiti Thailand Kuwait Sudan Honduras Turkey Luxembourg Gabon India West Bank and Gaza Malta Guinea Indonesia Mexico Guyana Jordan Netherlands Iran, Islamic Rep. Kenya Portugal Kazakhstan Pakistan Seychelles Yemen, Rep. Vietnam Singapore Mauritania Rwanda Slovak Republic Mongolia Sierra Leone Slovenia Mozambique Swaziland Spain Niger Syrian Arab Republic St. Kitts and Nevis Madagascar Tunisia Switzerland Mali Uganda United Kingdom
  • 66. • Source: for the slide “Distribution of States Across Profile Groups (2/2). *See Choucri and North (1993) for initial specification; and see Wickboldt and Choucri (2006) for extension of the logic to differentiate empirically among countries within each of the profile group.
  • 67. Definition of State Profiles Group VI: Technology > Population > Resources Group V: Technology > Resources > Population Group IV: Resources > Technology > Population Group III: Population > Technology > Resources Group II: Population > Resource > Technology Group I: Resources > Population > Technology *See Choucri and North (1993) for initial specification; and see Wickboldt and Choucri (2006) for extension of the logic to differentiate empirically among countries within each of the profile group.
  • 68. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 69. New Thinking & Knowledge Economy 17.181-17.182 Week 4 Outline I. BACKGROUND TO REVIEW Decolonization Phases of Theory and Policy Challenges to Sustainability II. REVIEW – KEY ISSUES & READINGS III. KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY IV. THEORY OF LATERAL PRESSURE State Profiles - Types Sustainability of State Profile Types
  • 70. 1. BACKGROUND TRAIL and ERROR SHIFTS in FOCUS CONVERGING on SUSTAINABILITY
  • 71. Review Week 1 • Variety of Definitions • Core Definition • Readings concepts positions Issues
  • 72. What is Sustainabilitv? . I The abilitv u of humanity to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the abilitv m2 of future generations to meet their own needs. [Bruntland, 19871 Preservation of productive capacitv L. for the foreseeable future. [Solow, 19921 * Biophysical sustainability means maintaining or improving the integritv L. of the life support svstem a of earth. [Fuwa, 19951 A dvnamic rn harmony tJ between the equitable availability of energy-intensive goods and services to all people and the preservation of the earth for future generations [Tester, et al. 20051 Prepared by E. Drrtke, MTT Energyand Environment Lab, 2006
  • 73.
  • 74. What are the major material concerns? Global Energy consumption is growing because: - Population is growing - Energy use per capita is growing - especially in developing countries Major fossil energy sources have problems - Securitv U of supplvtprice L . stability U (esp. petroleum) - Depletion concerns - Climate impacts Energy access is unequally C distributed Global economv is dependent on present levels of fossil energv L. prices & availabilitv V - change will slow economic growth Prepared by E. Drake. VTT Energy and Environn~cntLab. 2 0 6
  • 75. What are the major material concerns? * Global Energy consumption is growing because: - Population is growing - Energv use per capita is growing -especially in developing countiies Major fossil energv - & ' sources have problems - Security of supplylprice stability (esp. petroleum) - Depletion concerns - Climate impacts Energv O access is unequally distributed Global economy is dependent on present levels of fossil energy prices & availability -change will slow economic growth !'repared by E. Drake, MI T f?neqqand Envimmnent Lab. 2006
  • 76. The Core – High Level Definition We define sustainable development as: – The process of meeting the needs of current and future generations – Without undermining – The resilience of the life-supporting properties of nature and the integrity (or cohesion) of social systems”. What are the properties of this definition?
  • 77. Relationship between Institutional quality and national income Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
  • 78. Global Freshwater Withdrawal Image removed due to copyright restrictions. To see a similar graph go to the GRID-Arendal Website
  • 79. Review Week 2 Evolving Conceptions – causes and consequences
  • 80. Themes that Explain Collapse According to Tainter Each of the items below are listed as separate causal factors in his book (p. 43). A such we cannot see any theory dynamic logic. But if we begin to group the items, and imply some logic, a form of ‘theory’ emerges*. (1) Resource Constraints (2) Social costs • Depletion • Class conflict, elite • New resource Base mismanagement • Economic Factors • Social dysfunction (3) Persistent Pressures (4) Beliefs & Chance? • Catastrophe • Insufficient responses • Mystical Factors • Chance and events (5) External Threats • Other complex systems • Intruders * Numbered items represent the grouping of Tainter’s 11 items, p. 43).
  • 81. Intragenerational Principles Reduce gross inequities between the poorest and wealthiest both nationallv * and globally - Meet the basic needs of the poorest with food, shelter, health care, clean water, access to electricity, education, opportunitv .v for work, etc, - Avoid exploitation of poorer countrylrqion resources and labor to create even greater wealth for the richest Provide ways to protect the common good (social, environmeita~, economic) locally and globally .. through national and international governancelcooperation - Preserve natural ecoswtems a against unconstrained development - Avoid interference with natural balances in the atmosphere, the oceans, and the arctic regions - Maintain stable institutions that protect human rights, adjudicate conflicts9and allow responsible trade and market economy activities Prepared hy E. O~.ake, MIT Encrgy and Environmet.11Cab. 2006
  • 82. Intergenerational Principles * Trustee: Every generation has an obligation to protect interests of futkre generations Chain of obligation: Primarv obligation is to provide for the needs of the living a dsucceeding generations. Near term concrete hazards have prioritv Y over long term hvpothetical C hazards * Precautionarv Principle: Do not pursue actions that pose a realistic threat of irreversible harm or catastrophic consequences unless there is some compelling or countervailing need to benefit either current or future generations Prepared by E. h k e , MIT Energy and Enviro~irnenf b h . 2006
  • 83. Dynamic Complexity Arises because systems are •Constantly changing •Tightly coupled •Governed by feedback •Nonlinear •History-dependent •Self-organizing •Adaptive •Characterized by trade-offs •Counterintuitive •Policy resistant Source: J. Sterman, “System Dynamics, ESD Symposium, 2002.
  • 84. Review Week 3 The equation – several times Issue of Scale Issue of Linkages and Supply Chain
  • 85. Annual Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels and Land-Use Change Graph Image removed due to copyright restrictions. Please visit the Pew Center on Global Climate Change to see a similar graph.
  • 86. Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
  • 87. Income and Happiness in the US Graph Image removed due to copyright restriction. Please go to the Students Against Climate Change website to see a similar graph.
  • 88. The automotive technology system as seen through the lens of an industrial ecology view. Manufacture,use,recycle (i.e. the engine) Built Infrastructure (i.e.highways) Supply Infrastructure (i.e. the petroleum industry) Social Structure Infrastructure Technologies The Automobile Automobile Subsystems Image by MIT OpenCourseWare (i.e.dispersed communities and businesses,malls)
  • 89. World Primary Energy, GDP, and Population Trends Graph Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
  • 90. World Primary Energy Consumption Image removed due to copyright restrctions.
  • 91. Institutional Capacities Institutional Capacity (IC) consists of a set of capabilities involving: Finance (FC) Taxation and other forms of public levy Distribution (DC) Systems of revenue‐expense balances Regulation (RC) Exercise of “law and order” Response (RC) Accountability in governance Symbolism (SC) Identity formation and maintenance Figure by MIT OpenCourseWare. Adapted from Chourcri, Nazli. “The Politics of Sustainability.” In Sustainability and the Social Sciences: A Cross‐Disciplinary Approach to Integrating Environmental Considerations into Theoretical Reorientation. Edited by Egon Becker and Thomas Jahn. London, UK: Zed Books, 1999, pp. 153.
  • 92. New Thinking on Sustainability Elements Question Key Dimensions What is it that must become sustainable? Core Processes How is it that sustainability might proceed? Behavior Principle Which norms conceptual) c (computational and ould facilitate transitions towards sustainability? Performance Goals What would be the alternative, generic, society‐wide outcomes desired? Implementation conditions Which conditions facilitate implementation of sustainability strategies? Decisions and policy What are the decisions that must be choices addressed? Figure by MIT OpenCourseWare. Adapted from Chourcri, Nazli. “The Politics of Sustainability.” In Sustainability and the Social Sciences: A Cross‐Disciplinary Approach to Integrating Environmental Considerations into Theoretical Reorientation. Edited by Egon Becker and Thomas Jahn. London, UK: Zed Books, 1999, pp. 147.
  • 94. The Theory of Lateral Pressure Summary in Required reading Choucri & North, 1993.
  • 95. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 96. Sustainability as a Knowledge Domain 17.181-17.182 Week 3 Outline I. REVIEW and COMMENTS Definitions & Key Features Challenges to Sustainability Theory Why Systems Collapse – Tainter (first pass) II. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE Defintion Goals III. SUSTAINABILITY as a KNOWLEDGE DOMAIN Knowledge Transition Knowledge Systems Knowledge e-Barriers Solution Strategies to e-Barriers IV. INTRODUCTION to GSSD
  • 97. I. Review and Comments
  • 98. Urban population without Population without safe water adequate sanitation 100 60 80 60 40 40 Micrograms per Percent cubic meter of air Percent Micrograms per Tons cubic meter of air Percent 20 20 0 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Per capita income (dollars) Per capita income (dollars) Urban concentrations Urban concentrations of particulate matter 1,800 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 of sulfur dioxide 50 40 30 20 10 0 1,200 600 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Per capita income (dollars) Per capita income (dollars) Carbon dioxide Municipal wastes per capita emissions per capita 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 16 600 12 400 8 200 4 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Per capita income (dollars) Per capita income (dollars) Figure by MIT OpenCourseWare
  • 99. Graph removed due to copyright restrictions.
  • 100. Themes that Explain Collapse According to Tainter Each of the items below are listed as separate causal factors in his book (p. 43). A such we cannot see any theory dynamic logic. But if we begin to group the items, and imply some logic, a form of ‘theory’ emerges*. (1) Resource Constraints (2) Social costs • Depletion • Class conflict, elite • New resource Base mismanagement • Economic Factors • Social dysfunction (3) Persistent Pressures (4) Beliefs & Chance? • Catastrophe • Mystical Factors • Insufficient responses • Chance and events (5) External Threats • Other complex systems • Intruders Source: Tainter, 1968, p. 43
  • 101. Alternatives to Collapse – Proposed to the Class (NC) • Knowledge as problem solving • Knowledge as problem creation • Anticipatory tools and behaviors • Technological investments • Increased efficiency • Can we recognize too high marginal costs?
  • 102. ONCE MORE: Requisites for Sustainable Development DE-MASSIFICATION DE-SPACIALIZATION DE-CENTRLIZATION DIS-AGGREGATION DE-NATIONALIZATION DIS-INTERMEDIATION Source: J.S. Brown and P. Druid, The Social Life of Information (2000) Hyphen added for emphasis – not in the original
  • 103. Comments on the TAINTER argument: Why Investments in complexity yield a declining marginal return • Increasing size of the bureaucracies • Increasing specialization of bureaucracies • Cumulative nature of organizational solutions • Increasing taxation • Increasing costs of legitimizing activities • Increasing costs of internal control and external defense
  • 105. Sustainability Science Advance basic understanding of the dynamics of human-environment systems in order to Facilitate the design, development, implementation, and assessment of policy and strategy to facilitate transitions to sustainability in localized and globalized contexts particular places and contexts; Enhance conenctions between (i) research and innovation (ii) relevant policy and management (iii) in national and international contexts. Source: Based on and extended from US-NAS materials
  • 106. Goals of Sustainability Science • Knowledge structuring • Coordination of data • Multidisciplinary cooperation • Contextualization – of the above • Internationalization – of the above Source: Based on and extended from US-NAS materials
  • 107. Challenges to Sustainability Science Specifying**: • Nature of the challenge • System boundary • System components • System behavior • Time horizon • Normative Underpinnings National & International Linkages • Institutional Linkages ** Lecture Notes 17.181-17.182 Spring 2008
  • 108. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 109. Knowledge Matters** z Generally speaking, ‘knowledge’ refers to recognized considerations (facts, data, observations, theories etc.), where the essential criterion is ‘recognition’. z Among the various meanings accorded to the term ‘domain’ by Webster’s Dictionary, one of the most relevant to the present discussion is this: “the set over which a function is defined”, and a second is “the set of elements to which a mathematical or logical variable is limited”. ** Lecture Notes 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT 1
  • 110. 2 Knowledge Intensity of Economic Activities -Clear evidence of shift toward knoweldge intensity toward end of 20th century - If knowledge is power, we must harness its power toward sustainability and survival - Importance of treating knowledge and its deployment as a critical assett 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
  • 111. 3 Knowledge as Power According to Webster’s dictionary, to “know” is to “hold something in one’s mind as true or as being what it purport to be”…[this] ”implies a sound logical or factual basis”[and it also means] ”to be convinced of….” Accordingly, what is ‘known’ is that which is ‘generally recognized….’? We extend this standard view of knowledge to take into account a cluster of understandings that we refer to as a knowledge system. 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
  • 112. • An organized structure & dynamic process to enhanced by a set of iterations to enable advances 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT Knowledge System - Defined (a) generate & represent content (b) domain specific or relevant, with (c) logical connections between content of knowledge to its value (utility) (d) (e) subject to criteria of relevance, reliability, and quality 4
  • 113. Giving that knowledge can no longer be viewed simply as a ‘residual’ – companion to the proverbial ‘technology factor’ in the production function – but central to economic performance, in some sectors it is a driving force. 5 Essentiality: 11 High Low Low High Enhancing Value Extending Content Gains from Knowledg Gains from Knowledge- -Intensit Intensity Supports Sustainability by Reducing Barriers to Access Basic proposition between content and value in schematic form, (a) in the most generic terms, and (b) with reference to more specific activities that provide the ‘engine’ for the linkages. 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
  • 114. The Sustainability Knowledge Transition z From ‘supply chain’ to ‘knowledge chain’ z From material production to meeting societal needs z From isolated understanding to increased value due to knowledge deployment z From knowledge creation to knowledge diffusion through networking practices 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT 6
  • 115. Sustainability as a “Knowledge Domain” Economic growth theory seen in a global context seems to frame processes of growth as seen by those on the ‘top’ of global social and political systems rather than by those at the ‘bottom’, nationally or internationally. We focus on the knowledge base related to matters of ‘sustainability’ and to question the wisdom of the economic growth model sees ‘more’ as a strategic imperative subject only to efficiency 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT 7
  • 116. ng 2009 w ledge ue Raw Information Access Embedded knowledge Connect Knowledge Systems Refine Knowledge tools Extendin Gain Gain 8 17.181-17.182 Spri © NChoucri - MIT High Low Low High Knowledge Value Knowledge Content Knowledge Value Knowledge Value- -Chain Chain Web-based models & tools Repeat Value Creation Dynamic Knowledge & Value Creation Contextualize Knowledge Understand K-value Evaluate & Update High Low Low High Enhancing Value g Content s from Knowledge Network s from Knowledge Network Supports S Reducing B Raw Information Access Embedded knowledge Connect Knowledge Systems Refine Knowledge tools
  • 117. Basic ambiguity of sustainability Explosion of information on sustainability Gaps in infrastructure conditions in the industrial and developing countries Impediments to the provision of local knowledge ‘Knowledge-bias’ from Industrial Countries’ The matter of language on the Internet 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT Barriers to Knowledge on Sustainability 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. sources 6. 9
  • 118. Conceptual ambiguities – provide a conceptual framework to capture current understandings of key develop a knowledge provision process that is coupled with quality controls and content consistency checks. - partnerships with knowledge providers in various parts of the world 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT Solution Strategy to Knowledge Barriers 1 issues and interconnections, 2. Explosion of information - 3. Infrastructures differences 10
  • 119. ....continued impediments to the provision of local knowledge. ‘knowledge-bias’ from Industrial Countries’ sources develop and implement cyber partnerships with Internet is an English-speaking medium in a world that is non-English speaking - develop multilingual functions to enable the provision and distribution of knowledge 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT New Strategy for Reducing Barriers 4. web-based mechanism for enabling inputs& submissions from LDC to world 5. institutions from developing regions 6. that does not original in English & vice versa, 11
  • 120. Mapping ‘Sustainability’ The strategy we have adopted with regard to the sustainability differentiate between and among: o International Responses and Global Accord 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT Conceptual Framework – domains is to o human activities in various forms o known consequences and problems o Scientific and technological solutions o Socio-Economic, and Political solutions 12
  • 121. 13 The Basics – Continued • Recognizing that ‘everything’ is related to ‘everything else’, nonetheless this unbundling approach allows us to see the individual pieces (i.e. the parts), as well as the constituted whole of a complex system. • As a “map,” GSSD shows routes as well as obstacles (and obstacle courses); it may also provoke new ideas about new options (and resolution of obstacles both existent and emerging). • GSSD serves as a “map” to capture and “locate” both the fact of diversity and the changes of diversity over time and across space. 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
  • 122. 14 Knowledge based - Internet Resources K n o w le d g e P ro vid e rs H o w is K n o w le d g e P ro vid e d ? W h a t D a ta - A c c e s s & q u a lity? W h y c o lle c te d & b y w h o m ? H o w to re d u c e in fo rm a tio n b a rrie rs ? W h e n to fa c ilita te d a ta a c c e s s & re u s e ? S o u rc e : A d a p te d fro m H a rry Z h u T h e In te rn e t M illio n s o f s o u rc e s W e b/ In te rn e t G S S D K n o w le d g e B a s e •S em i structu red •Q uality contro lled •W ide co verag e •D iverse perspectives •M ulti-data types S e a rc h & R e trie va l •S elect retu rned abstracts •S ubm it query connect to source •D eterm ine utility S u b m it S ite s • S ta ke h o ld e rs •In stitu tio n s •G o v e rn m e n ts •B u sin e ss & In d u stry 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT
  • 123. Knowledge Network z Organized system of discrete actors with knowledge producing capacity z Combined through common organizing principles z Actors retain individual autonomy z Network enhances value of knowledge to actors & further expands knowledge 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009 © NChoucri - MIT 15
  • 124. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 125. 1
  • 130. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 131. The Core – High Level Definition We define sustainable development as: • The process of meeting the needs of current and future generations • Without undermining • The resilience of the life-supporting properties of nature and the integrity (or cohesion) of social systems”. What are the properties of this definition?
  • 132. KEY PIECES • Dimensions • Processes • Principles • Output
  • 133. DIMENSIONS Extending this definition further, in this course we differentiate among four dimensions of sustainability as follows: 1 2 Ecology Economy SD 3 4 Governance Institutions
  • 134. PROCESSES 1. Ecological systems with - balance - resilience 2. Economic systems with ecological congruence - eco-production - eco-consumption 3. Governance modes with - participation - accountability 4. Institutional performance with - adaptation - feedback 17.181-17.182 Spring 2009
  • 135. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT as an INTEGRATED DYNAMIC PROCESS (3) PRINCIPLES (4) QUTPUT CONDllt01NS N.Chcrual,MIT, TedmMgyMdO s - Program,Jan. IS90
  • 137. The Proposition The core proposition of this course is that: If all conditions hold, Then the system is (or can be) sustainable.
  • 138. What can be done? GENERIC and ESSENTIAL? DE- MASSIFICATION DE- SPACIALIZATION DE- CENTRLIZATION DIS- AGGREGATION DE- NATIONALIZATION DIS- INTERMEDIATION Source: J.S. Brown and P. Druid, The Social Life of Information (2000)
  • 139. The Implications (1) Sustainability conditions and strategies are context-dependent Subject to definitions and system boundary. (2) There are alternative paths to sustainability (3) There are some specific criteria for process, path, and expected outcomes Depending on the state profile
  • 140. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 141. What is Sustainabilitv? . I The abilitv u of humanity to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the abilitv m2 of future generations to meet their own needs. [Bruntland, 19871 Preservation of productive capacitv L. for the foreseeable future. [Solow, 19921 * Biophysical sustainability means maintaining or improving the integritv L. of the life support svstem a of earth. [Fuwa, 19951 A dvnamic rn harmony tJ between the equitable availability of energy-intensive goods and services to all people and the preservation of the earth for future generations [Tester, et al. 20051 Prepared by E. Drrtke, MTT Energyand Environment Lab, 2006
  • 142.
  • 143. What are the major material concerns? Global Energy consumption is growing because: - Population is growing - Energy use per capita is growing - especially in developing countries Major fossil energy sources have problems - Securitv U of supplvtprice L . stability U (esp. petroleum) - Depletion concerns - Climate impacts Energy access is unequally C distributed Global economv is dependent on present levels of fossil energv prices L. & availabilitv V - change will slow economic growth Prepared by E. Drake. VTT Energy and Environn~cntLab. 2 0 6
  • 144. What are the major material concerns? * Global Energy consumption is growing because: - Population is growing - Energv use per capita is growing -especially in developing countiies Major fossil energv - & ' sources have problems - Security of supplylprice stability (esp. petroleum) - Depletion concerns - Climate impacts Energv O access is unequally distributed Global economy is dependent on present levels of fossil energy prices & availability -change will slow economic growth !'repared by E. Drake, MI T f?neqqand Envimmnent Lab. 2006
  • 145. One: Governance Matters e Effective governance systems are essential -necessary but not sufficient -for managing entities under stress Almost all developing countries are already under stress Strengthening governance and institutional performance is a necessity not a luxury MIT
  • 146. Relationship Between Institutional Quality & National Income Image removed due to copyright restrictions. Source: World Bank. World Development Report, 2003. pg. 43
  • 147. Equal, Population-Based, and Wealth-Based Voting Formulas Image remove due to copyright restrictions. Source: Rourke, John T. International Politics on the World Stage. McGraw-Hill, 2002. pg. 246
  • 148. Evolution of Water Withdrawals Through the Twentieth Century Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
  • 149. World Populations in Developed and Developing Countries: 1950-2050 Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
  • 150. Vertical and Horizontal Linkages in the Context of Indicators of Sustainable Development Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
  • 151. Countries at Risk of Conflict Global map st conflict risk Source: Mapplecroft Maps
  • 152. Former Yugoslav Citizens with Temporary Protection in Europe Image removed due to copyright restrictions.
  • 153. Intragenerational Principles Reduce gross inequities between the poorest and wealthiest both nationallv * and globally - Meet the basic needs of the poorest with food, shelter, health care, clean water, access to electricity, education, opportunitv .v for work, etc, - Avoid exploitation of poorer countrylrqion resources and labor to create even greater wealth for the richest Provide ways to protect the common good (social, environmeita~, economic) locally and globally .. through national and international governancelcooperation - Preserve natural ecoswtems a against unconstrained development - Avoid interference with natural balances in the atmosphere, the oceans, and the arctic regions - Maintain stable institutions that protect human rights, adjudicate conflicts9and allow responsible trade and market economy activities Prepared hy E. O~.ake, MIT Encrgy and Environmet.11Cab. 2006
  • 154. Intergenerational Principles * Trustee: Every generation has an obligation to protect interests of futkre generations Chain of obligation: Primarv obligation is to provide for the needs of the living a dsucceeding generations. Near term concrete hazards have prioritv Y over long term hvpothetical C hazards * Precautionarv Principle: Do not pursue actions that pose a realistic threat of irreversible harm or catastrophic consequences unless there is some compelling or countervailing need to benefit either current or future generations Prepared by E. h k e , MIT Energy and Enviro~irnenf b h . 2006
  • 155. The Core – High Level Definition We define sustainable development as: – The process of meeting the needs of current and future generations – Without undermining – The resilience of the life-supporting properties of nature and the integrity (or cohesion) of social systems”. What are the properties of this definition?
  • 156. MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu 17.181 / 17.182 Sustainable Development: Theory and Policy Spring 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.
  • 157. ASSUMPTIONS If knowledge is power, we must harness the power of knowledge for managing social transformations. Knowledge e-networking creates new possibilities for all types of empowerment eNetworks are powerful catalysts for voicing social demands & forging development trajectories N. Choucri MIT
  • 158. What is GSSD? What is GSSD? z Global Knowledge e-Network of e- Networks z Structured Knowledge about Sustainability z System for Multilingual e-Networking z Decentralized Knowledge Provision N. Choucri MIT
  • 159. Global Context Global Context 2009 2009 z Globalization & World-wide eConnectivity z Increased Knowledge Intensity z Decentralized Knowledge Provision & Management z Persistent Gaps between Knowledge & Policy z New Technologies for Knowledge Networking z Search for ‘Leapfrogging Strategies’ N. Choucri MIT
  • 160. Sustainability Challenges A serious problems facing decision-makers, scholars, & analysts is inability to access to the body of relevant and contextually rich knowledge. Simply locating knowledge of relevance often among to a serious problem N. Choucri MIT
  • 161. II. The IT Connection – Why e- Tools? Supporting Sustainability • de-materialization • de-spacialization • de-centralization & • de-massification Reducing Disconnects • Information & Use • Stakeholders & Government • Planning Agencies & Activities MIT • Policies & Feedback N. Choucri
  • 162. N. Choucri Internet GlobaI Infrastructure Diffusion Original graph was removed due to copyright restrictions. The graph on the website below is a replacement. http://www.flickr.com/photos/eszter/177313399/
  • 163. N. Choucri MIT High Low Low High Knowledge Value Knowledge Content Knowledge Value Knowledge Value- -Chain Chain Raw Information Access Embedded knowledge Connect Knowledge Systems Refine Knowledge tools Web-based models & tools Repeat Value Creation Dynamic Knowledge & Value Creation Contextualize Knowledge Understand K-value Evaluate & Update
  • 164. Identifying Problems & Creating Solutions – Select Issues - What ‘problems’? - What ‘solution’ strategies? - Ontology Matters – Knowledge & its Organization - Knowledge Provision, Sharing, Management and Distribution N. Choucri MIT
  • 165. N. Choucri MIT CONCEPTUAL AMBIGUITIES EXPLOSION of INFORMATION UNEVEN e-FACILITIES LIMITED LOCAL CONTENT ENGLISH DOMINATES INTERNET Specific Barriers to e-Knowledge for Sustainability Specific Barriers to e-Knowledge for Sustainability
  • 166. The World Today 350 Million People Speak English as their Native Language 5.7 Billion Speak Something Else Source: The World Bank N. Choucri MIT
  • 167. What does GSSD ‘Do’? 1. Web-based system of hierarchical, nested, domain representation for complex systems 2. Selective portable knowledge base, multi-disciplinary perspectives, updated as needed 3. Diverse Navigation & Search Options over the knowledge-base extracted from the Internet 4. Customized workflow for multi-lingual knowledge networking and management N. Choucri MIT
  • 168. GSSD - Strategies to Reduce e-Barriers • Providing Coherent Conceptual Framework - Multidisciplinary views - diverse aspects of ‘sustainability’ • Managing Explosion of Information - Knowledge screening for quality - Cross indexing of content • Enabling Multilingualism and Localization - Mirror sites MIT - Partnerships & in-kind contributions N. Choucri
  • 169. What does this require? A. Knowledge Network and Networking B. Ontology of Sustainability – Structuring and Framing C. Evolving Knowledge Base N. Choucri MIT
  • 170. A. Knowledge Network z Computer-assisted organized systems of discrete actors with knowledge producing capacity z Combined through common organizing principles z Whereby actors retain their individual autonomy z Networks enhance value of knowledge to actors & motivate further knowledge expansion N. Choucri MIT
  • 171. B. Knowledge Base – e-Library & url’s • Selected from evolving Internet Materials of roughly 250 Institutional Holdings • Over 3000 Indexed Content, with with Multi-disciplinary & Diverse Views • Include concepts & theories, indicators & measures, models & cases, agreements & organizations, policy, strategy & decision N. Choucri MIT
  • 172. C. Ontology of Sustainability z Domains – topics z Dimensions – issues z Connectivity – linkages z Frames – skeletons & slots to fill out z Knowledge base – e-library’ N. Choucri MIT
  • 173. Conceptual Framework - Slices Mobility Agriculture Industry Land Use Water Governance Conflicts Urbanization Consumption Unmet Needs Population Migration Trade Energy N. Choucri MIT Industry
  • 174. Conceptual Framework - Rings Activities Problems Technical Solutions Social Solutions International Responses Social Solutions Technical Solutions Problems Activities International Responses N. Choucri MIT
  • 175. N. Choucri N. Choucri MIT MIT The Frame System Domain – The Topics* Dimension – The Issues** Intersection of Domain and Dimension Notes: * Recall Figure 4.9 ** Recall Figure 4.10 GSSD Organization Provision Management Retrieval of Knowledge MIT
  • 176. N. Choucri MIT Agriculture Forest & Land Use Water Use & Sources Conflicts & Wars Urbanization Consumption Unmet Basic Needs Population Trade & Finance Governance & Institutions Migration & Dislocation Energy Use & Sources Industry Mobility Industry & Manufacturing Example Industry & Manufacturing Example
  • 177. Slice: Industry Rings: Activities & Conditions Sustainability Problems Scientific & Technical Solutions Social, Economic, Political, & Regulatory Solutions N. Choucri MIT
  • 178. N. Choucri MIT Agriculture Forest & Land Use Water Use & Sources Conflicts & Wars Urbanization Consumption Unmet Basic Needs Population Trade & Finance Governance & Institutions Migration & Dislocation Energy Use & Sources Industry Mobility Conceptual Framework Conceptual Framework
  • 179. International Response & Global Accords Conventions Private-Public Partners Trade Regimes Economic Tech. Agreements Adjustments Agenda 21 Monitoring Population Policies Investment Modes Dev. Mechanisms Institutional Peace Strategies Strategies Codes of Conduct Environment Accords N. Choucri MIT
  • 191. N. Choucri MIT GSSD in China GSSD in China
  • 192. Our Common Challenge • Make Knowledge Widely Available • Organize Masses of Materials • Meet Needs of Diverse Groups • Increase Local Access to Global Knowledge • Increase Global Access to Local Knowledge N. Choucri MIT
  • 193. Knowledge for Transitions to Knowledge for Transitions to Sustainability Sustainability z From ‘supply chain’ to ‘knowledge chain’ z From material production to meeting social needs z From isolated understanding to increased value due to knowledge deployment z From knowledge creation to knowledge diffusion through networking practices N. Choucri MIT
  • 194. Conclusion Conclusion New Knowledge Frontiers New Knowledge Frontiers z Collaborative Knowledge Management z Multi-lingual Search Functionality z Mirror Site Locations z Software Agents for Knowledge z Multi-Media & Distance e-Learning z New Venues for e-Governance z Novel Modes of e-Participation & Voicing z Other? N. Choucri MIT
  • 196. N. Choucri MIT FRAMES – ‘FILLING the SLOTS” From Activities & Conditions to Sustainability Problems Soil erosion & degradation; Environmentally- polluting fertilizers land overuse; Forest destruction Depletion of non- renewable resources; Pollution, wastes, ecological effects Industry ACTIVITIES & CONDITIONS Unmet basic needs Conflicts & wars Water sources & uses Forest & Land use Agriculture Trade& finance Energy use & sources ACTIVITIES & CONDITIONS Hazardous wastes Land , air & water pollution; Ozone depletion; Environmental impacts SUSTAINABI LITY PROBLEMS SUSTAINABI LITY PROBLEMS A H C R S E O U R C E S L Y G O L O N E T Human impacts on sources & needs; Natural causes & impacts; Joint human & natural causes Governance & institutions Constraints on peace-keeping; Physical destruction; Social marginalization Migration & dislocation Population Environmental impacts of trade; Impacts of trade competitiveness Consumption Urbanization Social & resource constraints relative to demand; Gender & age-specific problems Poor quality of life; Food shortages; Health hazards; Disease Resource use & depletion; Wasteaccumulation Poverty expansion; Social stress; Environment & health effects; Socioeconomic dislocations;Global change & GHG emissions Casualties; Weapons trade& use; Damage to natural environments; Conflicts over resources Transport & Mobility Urban pollution & natural resource shortages; Spatial dynamics Stresses related to changes in group composition; Changes in density & pattern; Distribution tensions; Political shifts
  • 197. N. Choucri MIT Mobility Agriculture Land & Forests Water Conflicts & wars Urbanization Consumption Unmet basic needs Population Migration & dislocation Governance & institutions Energy Trade & Finance Industry CFC substitutes; Structural economic changes; Efficient mobility systems Eco-efficiency & safety measures; Markets & mechanisms for cleaner mobility; Emission standards & audits Sustainable agricultural practices; Agriculture finance systems; Improved food distribution & finance methods Limiting hazardous chemicals & fertilizers; Advances in agriculture methods Improved storage & transport Improved legislation; Agroforestry forms; Forest management programs New techniques for forest use & reforestation; Sustainable logging practices Information technologies Planning & management; Supply-side alternatives; New technological approaches for damage response; Use of technological options for peace-making & peace-keeping Effective arms control; War insurance; Contingency plans against violence; Meeting international codes Waste management; Urban services; Strengthen urban communities Improve urban infrastructure; Reduce population concentrations Waste management & minimization; Improve production processes Changes in consumer behavior; Mechanisms for consumption change Access to effective technology; Strengthen business support Poverty alleviation assistance; Enhanced capacity building; Responsive legal systems Fertility management; Strengthen health services Education; Improvement of women’s opportunities & skills; Age-specific support programs; Safety nets Responsive infrastructure strategies; Resettlement strategies Migration policies & strategies; Safeguards to human & natural habitats; Migrant support programs Improved technologies & methods for maintaining peace Facilitate security & economic cooperation; Improve political participation; Strengthen peace-keeping Alternative production technologies; Efficient use; Pollution control; Renewable non-polluting sources Direct regulatory control; Market based strategies; Government R&D Cleaner production; Industrial ecology; Substitution of functions; Waste minimization & Improved toxic release inventories; Standards & codes; Market based incentives; Best Practices ; Cleaner production; Eco-efficiency measures Market strategy; Trade measures & policies; Improved accounting & measurements; Provisions for dispute resolution SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, & REGULATORY TYPES of SOLUTION STRATEGIES TYPES of SOLUTION STRATEGIES Improved products & process; Improved packaging & shipment; Demand-side management Market strategies & mechanisms; Public & private interactions; Improved information systems
  • 198. N. Choucri N. Choucri MIT MIT The Frame System Domain – The Topics* Dimension – The Issues** Intersection of Domain and Dimension Notes: * Recall Figure 4.9 ** Recall Figure 4.10 GSSD Organization Provision Management Retrieval of Knowledge MIT