Lat us read about what is happening in J & K.

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Lok Sabha scrapped Article 370 and special status of Kashmir
The Lok Sabha on Tuesday [6-8-2019] has vetted the
government's move to immediately scrap Article 370, a historical
provision that had extended a special status to Jammu and Kashmir for
nearly seven decades, and carve two union territories out of the
Himalayan state. The two changes that would bring the state under the
direct control of the Centre, the government insists, would help curb
terrorism backed by Pakistan and fast track development.
The resolution to end special status for Jammu and Kashmir and the
bill to split J&K into two centrally-administered territories were passed
by more than 351 votes in favour of the motion, 72 against.
Home Minister Amit Shah who led the government's move in
Parliament, described Article 370 as a provision that had created a
barrier between Kashmir and the rest of the country. "This is why
everyone keeps on repeating that Kashmir is an integral part of India…
Why don't we say that for Tamil Nadu or Uttar Pradesh.... Because
Article 370 created suspicions," said Shah.
Once this law and resolution on Article 370 are passed, this hurdle
would disappear, Shah said in his response to a day-long debate in the
Lok Sabha on the two provisions.
That the proposals would be passed by the Lok Sabha was never in
doubt. The BJP-led ruling coalition NDA has an overwhelming majority
in the lower house. In the Rajya Sabha where it is still short of majority,
the bill was passed by a two-third majority.

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In a blog, former Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has suggested the
public mood in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Kashmir policy
had compelled many opposition parties to support the bill.
Shah elaborated this point in Lok Sabha, stressing that except for a
handful of lawmakers, most opposition leaders who demanded
continuation of Article 370 did not spell out even one benefit that would
accrue on account of this provision.
Amid tensions with Pakistan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Thursday addressed the nation defending his government’s decision to
scrap the special status granted to Jammu and Kashmir under Article
370. He said the provision has not given anything except separatism,
corruption and family rule to the state, and Pakistan has used it as a
tool to spread terrorism.
"If things improve with time, the Valley might not remain a union
territory always and the people will be able to choose their own
representatives soon," said PM Modi in his televised address to the
nation.
The Prime Minister spoke extensively about the Valley’s future and said
a new era has begun in the newly-created union territories Jammu and
Kashmir and Ladakh and the country has taken a "historic" decision.
* "People in Jammu and Kashmir will not face any difficulty in
celebrating Eid. I assure you things will return to normal."
* "I am confident that people of Jammu and Kashmir will defeat
separatism with new energy and new hope. Patriotic people of Jammu
and Kashmir have stood up against Pakistan’s conspiracy of terrorism
and separatism."

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* "New era has begun in J&K and Ladakh. Country has taken a historic
decision. Dreams of many of our leaders have been fulfilled. It was a
dream of Sardar Patel, S P Mookerjee, B R Ambedkar and Atal Bihari
Vajpayee and crores of people."
* "J&K labourers did not benefit from the laws. Laws for SC/ST did not
apply there. J&K women did not have the same rights as others. All
J&K workers will now get employments benefits. Over 1.5 crore people
of J and K were being denied benefits of legislations meant for the
entire country. State govt employees including police will soon get
benefits on par with employees of other Union Territories"
* "Decades of dynastic politics deprived youth in Jammu and Kashmir
of leadership opportunities. Impact of good governance and
development is now visible in J and K under central administration."
Post-independence History
Migration of Kashmiri Pandits:
Insecurity due to armed conflict in the 1990s compelled around
55,000 Kashmiri Pandit families to flee their homes and take shelter in
Jammu, Delhi and elsewhere in the country. Despite being numerically
small, the community was a “highly visible” group that was traditionally
land owning, educated and elitist. They were able to convey their
distress at being forced to live for two decades in temporary shelters
with minimal basic facilities. Politicians and other leaders have spoken
of their return, but none could guarantee their safety. It must be noted,
however, that there were Pandit families who did not migrate in the
1990s, and some of the migrants later returned to the valley

4. 4
CONFLICT AND INSTITUTIONS
The present crisis is a result of the inability to enforce a set of abstract
rules leading to the emergence of new institutional practices.
These include:
 The government and its various agencies,
 Non-state armed groups and
 Other socio-political organisations.
All have come to be associated in different capacities in the course of
the conflict. The initial reaction to the conflict has been to treat it as a
case of non-implementation of rules, that is, as a law and order
problem. This helped the rebels tap the discontent that emerged from
the alleged human rights violations by the government forces. The
dissatisfaction on the ground was compounded by the inability of the
successive governments to meet the growing aspirations of its people.
In practice this widespread discontent and responses to it, have
created non-state institutions of the armed and unarmed groups. South
Asia Terrorism Portal listed as many as 35 active and not-so-active
armed groups involved in the current conflict. The list included, among
others, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen
and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen.
Armed groups created para-state organisations in the areas they
operated in that lay down a set of rules and have the means and
resources to enforce them. Thus, they not only monitored the
government but also administered their own social welfare services to
gain public support from their distribution of public goods.
In this way, many of the functions which are within the domain of

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the state institutions have been encroached upon by the non-state
institutions. They also boycott all Indian national events like
Independence Day and Republic Day celebrations. The overall impact
has been the dilution of the legitimacy of state institutions. There is a
proliferation of a large number of socio-political organisations such as
the All Party Hurriyat Conference which have been playing different
roles in the course of the conflict.
OPTIONS
Apart from the usual call for dialogue with all the disgruntled groups,
the effort of the government has so far made very little success on the
ground. The tendency to view the conflict as a law and order problem
has contributed to the willingness to use force. Central assistance has
increased considerably over the years to promoting faster economic
development of the state. One of the major development initiatives
undertaken was the Prime Minister’s Reconstruction Plan initiated in
2004 that involved an outlay of approximately Rs. 28000 crores for
various development projects. Further, there has been a special
focus on “people to people” contact across two parts of the state
through Cross LoC Travel and Cross LoC Trade. Very recently,
the Central government initiated a comprehensive peace plan that
included, among others, the appointment of interlocutors who are
entrusted with the task of undertaking a sustained dialogue
with the people of the state to understand their problems and chart a
future course of action.
Above all, India and Pakistan continue to engage in bilateral talks
leading to a series of Kashmir-specific confidence building measures
(CBMs). Among the other options that have not always received the

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attention they deserve, are the grant of autonomy, repeal of
AFSPA/PSA, enhancement of the National Human Rights
Commission’s (NHRC) role in the state, third-party mediation, and
reorganisation of the state.
1947 Accession of Jammu and Kashmir to India
The erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir acceded to
India on 26 October 1947 through an Instrument of Accession executed
by Hari Singh, the then ruler. It was formally accepted by Lord
Mountbatten, the Governor General of India, on 27 October 1947.
Pakistan alleged that Hari Singh had no right to execute the accession
when the Standstill Agreement was in force with it, while India
maintained that it was legal.
Bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir
A Ceasefire Line came into being in 1949 following the Karachi
Agreement by India, Pakistan and the United Nations in accordance
with the United Nations resolution of 13 August 1948, and divided
Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan.
Delhi Agreement, 1952
The agreement provided for Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy within the
Indian Union. Its main features include the vesting of the residuary
powers of legislature in the Indian Union. Its main features include the
vesting of the residuary powers of legislature in the state itself; the state
would have its own flag in addition to the union flag; the Sadari-Riyasat
would be elected by the state legislature and be a person acceptable to
and appointed by the President of India; Articles 52 to 62 of the
Constitution of India relating to the President and Vice President would

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be applicable to the state; and the Supreme Court of India would have
only appellate jurisdiction.
Simla Agreement, 1972
Through this agreement, both India and Pakistan agreed to settle their
differences over Jammu and Kashmir through peaceful bilateral
negotiations. Pending the final settlement of any of the problems,
neither side would unilaterally alter the situation. Both sides also
decided to withdraw their respective forces to their side of the
international border; and decided to respect the Line of Control
(LoC) resulting from the cease-fire of December 1971.
August 2019:
IN HIS ADDRESS to the nation two days after Parliament ratified
his government s decision to end the special status of Jammu and
Kashmir and split the state into two Union Territories, Prime Minister
Narendra Modi sought to explain the reasons for the move, and to allay
the misgivings of a section of the population.
MODI SPOKE directly to the people of India, including those in
Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, and assured them that Article 370 of
the Constitution had been removed for their benefit, to fulfill the
aspirations of the people, and to lift roadblocks on the path to
development and progress of the region.
IN HIS SPEECH, delivered in Hindi, the Prime Minister used the
words Jammu-Kashmir and Ladakh 65 times and 28 times respectively,
and referred to desh (nation) 22 times. There were 18 mentions of
sarkar (government), 10 mentions of log (people), and eight of vishwas
(faith). Article 370 was mentioned on seven occasions.

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Calling for "maximum restraint" by all sides, UN Secretary
General Antonio Gutteres on Thursday indicated the Kashmir dispute
needs to be resolved bilaterally in keeping with the Shimla Agreement
of 1972 and by peaceful means in accordance with the UN charter.
The reference to the Shimla Agreement in this context is rare and
significant, according to people familiar with these discussions, as it
provides the framework for resolving the dispute bilaterally, which is a
rebuff in a way to Pakistan's attempts to seek UN intervention.
Pakistan had sought UN and UNSC intervention in a letter to
Gutteres, but it appears to have not achieved its objectives. Pakistan's
permanent representative to the UN Maleeha Lodhi had written on
Twitter on Tuesday that the letter, written by Foreign Minister Shah
Mehmood Qureshi would make "clear that the rights of Kashmiris as
provided by Security Council resolutions cannot be abrogated by any
unilateral action. Compliance of SC resolutions on J&K is essential for
peace in our region". She did not say, but was referring to Resolutions
39 and 47 from 1948, which set up a UN-mandated commission to help
resolve the dispute and recommended a plebiscite in the state to
determine its final status.
The two nations have been exchanging blows after Centre took
the decision to scrap the special status of the Valley, following which
the Pakistan foreign ministry downgraded diplomatic ties with India on
Wednesday and suspended bilateral agreements.

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Pre-independence history of Kashmir
Bernier, the first European to enter Kashmir, wrote in 1665: “In truth,
the kingdom surpasses in beauty all that my warmest imagination had
anticipated.”
From reliable historic records, we know that Asoka’s empire extended
to Kashmir as is evident from the remains of Buddhist temples,
stupas and statues, and in the ruins of cities founded by him about
250 years before Christ and 200 years before the Romans landed in
Britain. In Kashmir Asoka founded the original city of Srinagar, then
situated on the site of the present village of Pandrathan, 3 miles
above the existing capital.
The next landmark in Kashmir’s history is the reign of Kanishka, the
Indo- Scythian ruler of upper India around 40 AD when the Romans
were conquering Britain and Buddhism was beginning to spread to
China. Kanishka was of Turkish descent and was renowned as a
pious Buddhist king who held in Kashmir the famous Third Great
Council of the Buddhist Order which drew up the Northern Canon or
“Greater Vehicle of the Law.” Nagarjuna, a famous Bodhisattva who
exercised a spiritual lordship over the land was a contemporary of
Kanishka.
Buddhism was in its peak during the time of Kanishka. However,
soon Brahministic Hinduism started reasserting itself. Coming in
conflict with Hinduism, Buddhism waned. When Hiuen Tsiang, the
Chinese Buddhist pilgrim, visited Kashmir in 631 AD, he observed:
“This kingdom is not much given to the faith, and the temples of
the heretics are their sole thought.”

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After Kanishka, the next notable but exceedingly cruel ruler of
Kashmir was Mihirkula (6
th
Century AD), known as the ‘White Hun’
and a persecutor of the Buddhist faith, whose kingdom extended to
Kabul and central India. People would know his movement by
noticing the vultures, crows and other birds flying ahead of him to feed
on his victims. The most famous indigenous king of Kashmir was
Lalitaditya (699-736AD), a contemporary of Charlemagne, who
preceded king Alfred by over a century.
His grandfather, the founder of his dynasty, was a man of humble
origin but connected through marriage with the previous royal family.
The Kashmiri historians speak of Lalitaditya as conquering the world.
However, the fact is that he asserted his authority over the hilly tracts
of Northern Punjab, reduced the king of Kanauj to submission,
conquered the Tibetans and Badakhshan in central Asia and sent
embassies to Peking. He erected the gorgeous temple at Martand and
founded the city of Parihasapura (now in ruins), near the present
Shadipur.
Lalitaditya’s rule was succeeded by weak kings barring his grandson
who was as illustrious as the grandfather. After a series of
insignificant rulers, economic depression and political instability,
Kashmir found a talented ruler in Avantivarman (855-883) who was
more known for his consolidation efforts rather than his conquest.
The town of Avantipura, named after the king, has survived to the
present day.

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His reign was remarkable for the execution of an engineering scheme
to prevent floods and drain the valley. The Kasmiri engineer Suyya
diagnosed correctly more than thousand years ago that floods in the
valley were due to the water of the Jhelum river not being able to get
through the gorge 3 miles below Baramula with sufficient rapidity. The
constricted passage got blocked with boulders and Suyya adopted a
novel method to have the boulders removed. He threw money into the
river where the obstruction lay. Soon it spread that there was money
at the bottom of the river and men dashed in to retrieve it and rooted
up all the obstructing boulders in their search. So says the legend. As
a result of removal of the obstruction, a large land was available for
cultivation with protection against floods.
After Avantivarman, Kashmir saw a row of weak successors,
palace intrigues and assassinations, till the rule of Harsha (1089-
1101), said to be the most striking figure among the later Hindu
rulers of Kashmir. He was courageous and well versed in various
sciences as also a lover of music and arts. Later he degenerated into
a despot and fell a victim of revolt. He was slain in the fighting. His
head was cut off and burned, while his naked body was cremated by
a compassionate wood dealer.
For 2 centuries more the Hindu rule in Kashmir continued. In 13th
century, Kalhan the most reliable historian of Kashmir was living and
from his annals we get most authentic account of Kashmir’s history.
In 1339, Shah Mir, a Mohammedan ruler, deposed the widow of the
last Hindu ruler and founded a Mohammedan dynasty. The most
illustrious Muslim ruler of Kashmir before it came under Mughal rule

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in 1586, was Zain-ul-ab-ul-din (1420-70). He was virtuous, liberal, a
friend of cultivators, built many bridges and constructed many canals.
He repaired some Hindu temples and revived Hindu learning. In 1532
Kashmir passed under Turkish rule when Mirza Haider occupied it for
a brief period. In 1586 Kashmir was incorporated in the dominions
of Akbar, the contemporary of queen Elizabeth of Great Britain.
Akbar visited Kashmir three times, made a land revenue settlement
and built the fort of Hari Parbat. Jehangir, Akbar’s son, built the
stately pleasure gardens, the Shalimar and Nishat Baghs where he
and his wife Nurjehan, the most beautiful woman of her time, spent
many a pleasant summer day. During the reign of Aurangzeb,
Bernier, the French traveler visited Kashmir. He described it as “the
terrestrial paradise of the Indies.
Though during most of the time under the Mughal rule Kashmir was
prosperous, with the decaying of the Mughal Empire, Kashmir fell
once more into wild disorder and eventually came under the
oppressive rule of the Afghans in 1750, marked as a time of “brutal
tyranny”.
When the oppression became unendurable, the Kashmiris turned to
Ranjit Singh, the powerful Sikh ruler of the Punjab who after an
unsuccessful attempt finally defeated the Afghan governor in 1819
and annexed Kashmir.
However, by that time nine-tenths of the population had been forcibly
converted to Islam. After the death of Ranjit Singh, Gulab Singh, the
king of Jammu and a friend of Ranjit Singh, became the virtual master
of the valley though it nominally belonged to the Sikh rulers at Lahore.

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Gulab Singh was a Dogra Rajput who maintained excellent rapport
with Ranjit Singh and later with his successors till the British
occupied Lahore and Punjab. However, in consideration of the good
conduct of Gulab Singh, the British agreed to recognize his
independence. On March 16, 1846, the British signed a separate
treaty with Gualb Singh by which the British Government
“transferred and made over, for ever, in independent
possession, to Maharaja Golab Singh and the heirs male of his body,
all the hilly and mountainous country, with its dependencies,
situated to the eastward of the river Indus and westward of the
river Ravi, including Chamba and excluding Lahoul, being part of the
territories ceded to the British Government by the Lahore State.”
Gulab Singh in turn was to pay the British Government 75 lakhs of
rupees. Gulab Singh was succeeded by his son Ranbir Singh in
1857. He rendered valuable services to the British Government
during the Sepoy Mutiny. Ranbir Singh died in 1885. Under his rule
there was steady improvement. The dynasty ruled Kashmir till king
Hari Singh transferred power to independent India in 1947 by a deed.

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15. 9-8-2019
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN KASHMIR?
The clampdown in Kashmir was imposed on Monday, hours before the
Centre revoked Jammu and Kashmir's special status and split it into
two union territories -- Ladakh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Security forces have been deployed in massive numbers across the
Valley, particularly in Srinagar city and major towns, and barricades
have been erected every 100 metres and only people allowed to pass
are those with medical emergencies.
All telephone and internet connections have been snapped in the
Valley and only three news channels, including state-run Doordarshan,
can be accessed through cable TV networks.
While the officials are maintaining that the situation in Kashmir is
"comfortable", sporadic incidents of small groups of youth throwing
stones at security forces have taken place in many parts of the city
including Bagh-e-Mehtab, Natipora, Rambagh, Barzulla, Noorbagh and
Bemina.
One person has reportedly died due to drowning in Noorbagh area of
the city after he was chased by forces during protests there.
Local residents had stocked up essentials like food grains, fuel and
medicines in the run-up to the Monday's announcement by the Home
Minister Amit Shah in the Rajya Sabha.
During easing of restrictions in some parts of the city especially in civil
line areas on Thursday, the movement of the people remained thin,
while a few shops mostly selling vegetables and medicines opened.

16. Some stone-pelting incidents were also reported at a few places but
the mobs were chased away by police and paramilitary personnel, the
officials said.
Taliban has slammed Pakistan for linking heightened tensions between
India and Pakistan over Kashmir with the situation in Afghanistan.
Urging India and Pakistan not to turn Afghanistan into the 'theater of
competition between other countries', Taliban spokesperson
Zabihullah Mujahed said, "Linking the issue of Kashmir with that of
Afghanistan by some parties will not aid in improving the crisis at hand
because the issue of Afghanistan is not related."
Full coverage: Kashmir turmoil
In a statement released on Thursday, Taliban also urged India and
Pakistan to refrain from taking steps that could pave a way for
"violence and complications" in the region.
This came after Pakistan's opposition leader in the Parliament
Shehbaz Sharif drew comparison between Kashmir and Afghanistan
and said, "What kind of a deal is this that the Afghans enjoy and
celebrate peace in Kabul, but in Kashmir, blood is shed? No, this is not
acceptable for us."
The Embassy of Pakistan in Kabul has meanwhile clarified that the
Kashmir issue would not affect the peace drive in Afghanistan.
"The issue of Kashmir has nothing to do with the violence in
Afghanistan and it is unfortunately still unresolved...," Pakistan
ambassador Zahid Nasrullah Khan was quoted as saying by Anadolu
News Agency.

17. Earlier this week, the Union government revoked provisions of Article
370 to take away the state's special status and bifurcated the region
into two UTs --Jammu and Kashmir and secured Parliamentary
approval.
Pakistan continued its unilateral actions on Friday to protest Indian
Parliament’s removal of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status by
announcing to halt the last train service to India, named Thar Express,
a day after it had announced suspension of Samjhauta Express
service between Lahore and Delhi.
“We have decided to shut down the Thar Express as well,” Pakistan’s
railways minister Sheikh Rashid told reporters, in reference to the
weekly service running between the towns of Khokrapar in Pakistan
and Munabao in Barmer, India.
“As long as I am railways minister, no train will operate between
Pakistan and India.” Rashid added.
Rashid Ahmed had on Thursday announced the discontinuation of
Samjhauta Express-- a bi-weekly train service started in 1976. “We
have decided to shut down Samjhauta Express… As long as I am
railways minister, Samjhauta Express can’t run,” he had said.
Decision to suspend train services was in line with Islamabad’s other
actions to remonstrate, like snapping talks on consular access to
former naval officer Kulbhushan Jadhav who was sentenced to death
by a Pakistan military court for alleged espionage.

18. Pakistan has also banned screening of Indian movies. Late on
Thursday, Prime Minister Imran Khan said at an interaction with
journalists that Pakistan does not want war but will give a befitting
response if India imposes it, Geo News reported.
Spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs, Raveesh Kumar
described Islamabad’s action as “unilateral” and said New Delhi has
urged it to reconsider its decision.
“Actions taken by Pakistan are unilateral.This has been done without
consulting us.We’ve urged them to reconsider their decision.Our sense
is that whatever is being done by Pakistan is to present an alarming
picture of bilateral relationship,” he said.
India has maintained that changes made to Indian laws doing away
with special status to Jammu and Kashmir was an internal matter and
Pakistan had no business interfering. “It is time for Pakistan to accept
the reality and stop interfering in internal affairs of other countries,” he
said.
SEEKS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S SUPPORT
Pakistan PM Imran Khan on Thursday sought the international
community's support over Kashmir, saying if it has the moral courage,
it should end India's use of greater military force against the Kashmiris.
"The whole world is waiting to see what happens to Kashmiris in
Kashmir when the curfew is lifted, Khan said, referring to the Valley
which has been under a virtual communications blackout since
Sunday. Does the BJP govt think by using greater military force
against Kashmiris..., it will stop the freedom movement? Chances are it
will gain momentum," he tweeted.

21. Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution gave special status to
Jammu and Kashmir, allowing it to have a separate constitution, a state
flag and autonomy, with its own administration and laws, including
those related to citizenship, ownership of property and fundamental
rights, as compared to residents of other Indian states.
Pakistan fraudulently translated ‘autonomy’ into ‘disputed’.
On August 5, 2019, the President of India, Ram Nath Kovind, issued a
Constitutional order declaring Articles 370 and 35A inoperable — and
making all the provisions of the Indian Constitution applicable to
Jammu and Kashmir.
As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated in his following address
to the nation:
“Article 370 and Article 35A had only given terrorism, separatism,
nepotism and massive corruption. These Articles were used as a
weapon by Pakistan to inflame passions. This is the reason that in the
last three decades, 42,000 people died. It brings tears to anyone’s
eyes."
The revocation of Articles 370 and 35A now has also significantly
diminished Pakistan’s claim that Jammu and Kashmir is ‘disputed’
territory. Just days after the scrapping of Articles 370 and 35A, the
United States, the United Arab Emirates and Sri Lanka announced that
action related to the administration of Jammu and Kashmir is an Indian
‘internal matter’.
India’s move should be considered a welcome change in the status quo
— a potential disruption of the seemingly never-ending cycle of
violence that gripped Jammu and Kashmir since the British Indian

22. Empire's Partition created India and Pakistan in 1947, spurring
decades of diplomatic tensions and violent conflicts.
It is a momentous and necessary shift in the strategic dynamics,
capable of contributing to a lasting resolution of the Jammu and
Kashmir dispute.
Wise men and women should treat it as such, rather than adhering to
the divisive and provocative arguments of the past.
Movement allowed in few areas of Srinagar on fifth day of restrictions:
People in civil line area of the city were allowed to move as restrictions
were eased out in some areas on the fifth day of the curfew in Valley.
More precautions were taken due to Friday prayers.
11-8-2019: Kashmir divisional commissioner Baseer Khan said, "In
view of the restrictions, instead of people coming out to shop, the
government will try to reach them in each district in the view of Eid.
Mobile delivery vans have been put in place for distribution of rations,
vegetables and even mutton. Mandies will be organised and there will
be delivery of items through them."

23. Why PM Modi acted now on Kashmir?
The question is why did Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose now to do
what he has done with Article 370? There was no big election in sight
so as to create a build up for electoral gain. Neither was there any
major crisis or any embarrassing situation for the government to find a
succour in Kashmir. Perhaps, this was the best time to enact the best
of action story for the Modi-Shah Combine.
The 'now' time had several elements going in the favour of the
Combine - a stable domestic political situation, weak Pakistan, a
hungry desperate Trump and pre-occupied power blocs. It is said that
things happen when the right time comes. History will judge whether
the 'master stroke' is right or wrong.
Domestic Front
On the domestic front Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home
Minister Amit Shah are, for the time being, very comfortably placed as

24. the opposition seems to have simply gone into oblivion. With Rahul
Gandhi deciding to lie low, the Congress party is in its most unconfident
state. The rest of the Opposition too seems to have fallen flat. With no
big contender in front, the government is comfortably galloping ahead.
In the NDA, all the allies put together appear minuscule before the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and within the party, the hold of the
combine is absolute. No one dare go against any decision taken by the
big bosses.
In Kashmir, the situation has been far better than what it was in
previous years. 'Operation All Out' ensured that top rung terror heads
were eliminated. Strong vigil on the LoC and the International Border
ensured that infiltration was getting checked. In the first five months of
this year, 101 terrorists were killed including 23 foreigners. After the
Pulwama suicide bombing attack, the crackdown on the terror network
has been effective.
The NIA action against the separatist leaders has exposed their real
faces before the Kashmiris. The incarceration of hardcore separatist
leaders like Asiya Andrabi, Shabbir Shah, Masrat Alam and a few
others have reaffirmed the might of the investigating agencies. The
Kashmiri understands that most of the separatist leaders have been
using the so-called 'azadi movement' for filling their coffers and settling
their sons, daughters and relatives out of the state and country. After
demonetisation and the crackdown on hawala operations, the Valley
witnessed a drastic reduction in stone pelting incidents.
In fact, Hurriyat leader Maulvi Omar Farooq, who is the top religious
head of Muslims in Kashmir, had started talking about other subjects
like drug addiction, and was also openly advocating for the return of the

25. exiled Kashmiri Pandit community. He even got the Hurriyat to form a
coordination committee to work for the return of the Pandit community.
For the first time in 30 years, the Valley did not observe a shutdown or
protests when Amit Shah reached the state after becoming the Home
Minister. The central government's ' back to village' programme, which
saw government officials reach villages and far-flung areas, was well
received by the locals.
Weak Pakistan
At present, Pakistan's economy is in poor shape. Inflation is around 11
per cent, the Pakistani Rupee has dropped to 160 against the dollar,
forex reserves are sufficient to only service one and half months of
imports and it is in the midst of a serious twin-deficit problem. Pakistan
continues to be in the FATF grey list because its domestic laws are
weak to tackle money laundering and terror financing issues. FATF has
categorically told Pakistan to act against terror by October or face
blacklisting. It was because of the FATF hard talk that terror
masterminds like Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar have been put in jail
and restrictions placed on their organisations. The Pakistan
establishment is forced to keep its terror network under wraps, at least
for the time being. This situation suits India perfectly.
Trump's Afghan Move
It does not matter to US President Donald Trump that Pakistan is at the
root of the problems in Afghanistan. For Trump, all he wants is to get
his forces out of Afghanistan and meet his electoral commitment of
getting them back before the US presidential polls in November 2020. It
is obvious that Trump wants a deal with Taliban anyhow. So he met
Imran Khan in Washington DC, approved a $125 million support

26. programme for the upkeep of F16 fighter jets and, much to Pakistan's
glee, offered to mediate with India on Kashmir.
No one can guarantee a deal with the Taliban but Trump's near
desperation for such a deal has seen Pakistan trying to put Kashmir on
the discussion table. India has been kept out of the Afghan peace
process even though India has a stake in that country. But Pakistan's
bid to link Kashmir with Afghanistan and Trump's eagerness for it
perhaps struck alarm bells in Delhi.
Trump wants the deal with the Taliban finalised before September-end
and his troops back home by the year end. No one can trust the
Taliban and Pakistan to keep their word. In case they do not, then the
terror violence in Kashmir is likely to see a rise and separatist feelings
fueled on radicalization can lead to a very difficult situation for Delhi. To
avoid this, one of the best solutions was to fully integrate Jammu and
Kashmir to enable free movement of people into the Valley from
elsewhere in India.
The China Factor
Even though China's support to Pakistan is total, yet it has always
considered Kashmir as a bilateral issue between the two. In 1963,
Pakistan ceded around 6,000 sq km of Aksai Chin from Pakistan-
occupied Kashmir to China. China also claims large parts of Ladakh,
India and China have been negotiating over the Line of Actual Control
in Ladakh. Both countries have stressed the need to talk. China claims
that Tawang in Arunachal is an inalienable part of Tibet and for India
Aksai Chin is an essential part of Ladakh. The negotiations between
the two countries could help find a way out on this.

27. All the above factors and many more were taken into consideration by
Modi-led government and the surprise package was thus worked out.
The perfect time of internal as well as the external considerations jelled
well. The road ahead, however, is not all that easy. And it will take a
long time for the situation to stabilise in the valley.