FRC workshop on Food, jobs and work

1. Agricultural labour in the UK
Stephen Devlin, Economist

2. 2 key questions
1. What does the agricultural labour market
look like right now?
2. What are the key factors that are going to
cause it to change in the future?

3. Small (tiny!)
Percentage of working people employed in agriculture and fishing in the UK: 1841-2011
Source: UK Census data

4. Thin on the ground
Employment per unit area on EU farm holdings
Source: Eurostat

5. Uneven
Labour intensity of different farm types (number of jobs per hectare)
Source: UK Agriculture departments June Survey/Census of Agriculture

6. Male
15%
85%
Managers
29%
71%
Seasonal, casual or gang labour
Female
Male
Gender of farm managers (2013) and seasonal, casual or gang labour (2014)
Source: Farm Structure Survey 2013, Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2014

7. Old
Age of farm managers (2013)
Source: Farm Structure Survey 2013

8. Badly paid
Gross weekly pay
Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
£-
£100
£200
£300
£400
£500
£600
£700
£800
£900
£1,000
All employees Skilled agricultural and related
trades

9. Insecure
 Workers/employees: collective
bargaining power eroded,
irregular/seasonal work
 Farm owners/renters/managers:
precarious business conditions

10. Divided
farm managers  workers
skilled  unskilled
domestic  migrant

11. What does the future hold?
 Productivity and technology
 Skills, training and public perception
 Globalisation, trade and the EU
 Environment and public health

12.  Productivity and technology
 Skills, training and public perception
 Globalisation, trade and the EU
 Environment and public health

13. Productivity and technology
Partial factor productivity indicators for UK agriculture (1973 = 100)
Source: Defra

14. Productivity and technology
Technological
progress on
farms
Labour
moves to
higher value
sectors
Labour gets
more
expensive
(food stays
cheap)
Farms want
to reduce
labour
requirements

15. Productivity and technology

16. Productivity and technology
Key questions
How far can agricultural automation go?
Exactly what type of jobs will remain?
How can the benefits of automation be
shared?

17.  Productivity and technology
 Skills, training and public perception
 Globalisation, trade and the EU
 Environment and public health

18. Skills, training and public perception
Education and training (further education) participation in agriculture, horticulture and
animal care
Source: Skills Funding Agency

19. Skills, training and public perception
Key questions
Is “upskilling” really so great?
How big a job is it to rehabilitate the
reputation of farming as a career?

20.  Productivity and technology
 Skills, training and public perception
 Globalisation, trade and the EU
 Environment and public health

21. Globalisation, trade and the EU
-£400,000
-£200,000
£-
£200,000
£400,000
£600,000
£800,000
£1,000,000
£1,200,000
£1,400,000
Cereal,rolledorflaked
Milkandcream
Barley,unmilled
Cereal,milled
OtherCitrusfruit
Potatoes,freshorchilled
LemonsandLimes
Eggs&eggproducts
Otheranimalfeedingstuffs
Lettuceandchicory,freshor…
Butter
Mushroomsandtruffles
Tomatoes,preparedor…
Oilseedsandoleaginousfruits
Potatoproducts
Rice
OrangesandMandarinsetc
Apples,fresh
Tomatoes,freshorchilled
Othercereal(including…
Jams
Sausagesandrelatedproducts
Bananas
Pork
Wheat,unmilled
Beefandveal
Grapes,freshordried
Baconandham
Juice
Poultrymeat
Vegetables,frozenor…
Otherfruit
Cheese
Othervegetables,freshor…
UK net imports (£000) by category, 2013
Source: Defra Note: some categories have been excluded to reduce complexity

22. Globalisation, trade and the EU

23. Globalisation, trade and the EU
Key questions
What is the net employment impact of the
government export drive?
Does it matter if labour market opportunities
primarily benefit migrants?

24.  Productivity and technology
 Skills, training and public perception
 Globalisation, trade and the EU
 Environment and public health

25. Environment and public health
Environment
 Less but better meat
 Environmentally beneficial production
methods
Public Health
 Less but better meat; more fruit and
vegetables
 Fewer processed and sugary foods

26. Environment and public health
Key questions
Will technology erode labour required for
environmental/health reasons?
Does it or does it not mean increased food
prices?

27. A million jobs in food and farming?
 Why? For the environment, health,
reducing unemployment? All of the above?
 Take account of the counterfactual
 Different motivations for quantity and
quality
 How to navigate the politics around
migration and food prices?

28. www.neweconomics.org
@NEF
Email: stephen.devlin@neweconomics.org
Twitter: @_StephenDevlin