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Startup Metrics
   For Pirates
                       AARRR
                            !




Wildfire Interactive
   Redwood Shores
        May 2012 - #AARRR

Dave McClure @DaveMcClure
             http://500.co
     http://500hats.typepad.com
  http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats
Dave McClure
           Developer, Entrepreneur, Marketer, Investor, GEEK!




00’s & 10’s:
• Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups
• Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid
• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media
• Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook

80’s & 90’s:
• Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d)
• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)
• Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
500 Startups
Seed Fund & Accelerator
    (300+ companies, 15+ countries)
[ This Talk ]
Topics

•   Basic Concepts of “Startup Metrics 4 Pirates”
•   3 Steps to AARRR: Product, Market, Revenue
•   Constructing MVP: Just ONE Feature?
•   Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG)
•   Winning: Market, Revenue, Profit?
Key Concepts

•   MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$)
•   PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives)
•   AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics)
•   ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)
•   WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)
Geek Renaissance

•   Tech Innovation
•   Finance Innovation
•   Design Innovation
•   Social Innovation
•   Global Innovation
Platforms 2.0
Search, Social, Mobile
What’s a Platform?
Successful Platforms
have 3 Things:               Features
1) Features
2) Users
3) Money
                    Growth              Profit

                         Awesome

                                .
                         Profitable
            Users           .
                          Growth Money
Distribution Platforms
Customer Reach: 100M+

  • Search: Google (SEO/SEM)

  • Social: Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, LinkedIn

  • Mobile: Apple (iPhone, iPad), Android

  • Media: YouTube (Video), Blogs, Photos

  • Comm: Email, Chat, SMS, Voice
DO Marketing!
                 (It’s Not Evil)

•   Marketing is Both Qualitative + Quantitative
•   Qualitative: Create Emotion, Drive Action
•   Quantitative: Measure Results of Action
•   Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) Matter
•   Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%)
[ Interesting Shit. ]
Read Geoffrey Miller
Sex + Evolution + Consumer Mktg = Awesome Sauce
More Great Shit.
  Psychology + Comics
[The Lean Startup]
[Startup Metrics 4 Pirates]
Just Gimme the GOOD Metrics.
            Users, Pages, Clicks, Emails, $$$...?

         Q: Which of these is best? How do you know?
           • 1,000,000 one-time, unregistered unique visitors
           • 500,000 visitors who view 2+ pages / stay 10+ sec
the
good       • 200,000 visitors who clicked on a link or button
stuff.
           • 20,000 registered users w/ email address
           • 2,000 passionate fans who refer 5+ users / mo.
           • 1,000 monthly subscribers @ $5/mo
The Lean Startup
•   Talk to Customers; Discover Problems
•   Progress ≠ Features (Less = More)
•   Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop)
•   Measure Conversion; Compare 2+ Options
•   Focus on Product/Market Fit (don’t “launch” b4)
•   Keep it Simple & Actionable
Discover Customers
(Steve Blank, SteveBlank.com)
Iterate, Dammit.
(Eric Ries, StartupLessonsLearned.com)


                 IDEAS




     LEARN                BUILD




       DATA
                          CODE


               MEASURE
Product/Market Fit b4 “Launch”
             (Sean Ellis, Startup-Marketing.com)




Startup-Marketing.com
AARRR!: 5-Step Startup Metrics Model
                                       SEO        Campaigns,
                          SEM                PR    Contests        Biz
          Social
         Networks                                                  Dev
                           Blogs                    Affiliates
        Apps &                                                     Direct,
        Widgets                    Email                           Tel, TV
                                        ACQUISITION
                  Domains




        Emails & Alerts




Blogs, RSS,
                             io    n
News Feeds
                  R   e tent

                                                  Ads, Lead Gen,                Biz Dev
           System Events &                        Subscriptions,
                                                                    Rev
         Time-based Features
                                                   ECommerce
                                                                        enu
                                                  Website.com
                                                                            e$$$
Startup Metrics for Pirates

•   Acquisition: users come to site from various channels
•   Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience
•   Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times
•   Referral: users like product enough to refer others
•   Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior

                                           AARRR!




     (note: If you’re in a hurry, Google
     “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)
One Step at a Time.

1. Make a Good Product: Activation & Retention
2. Market the Product: Acquisition & Referral
3. Make Money: Revenue & Profitability

“You probably can’t save your Ass and your Face
at the same time… so choose carefully.” – DMC
Startup Challenges

Startups have problems in 3 key areas:
• Management: Set Priorities, Define Key Metrics

• Product: Build “Right” Features. Measure, Iterate.

• Marketing: Distribution, Distribution, Distribution.
                 (Search, Social, Mobile)
Key Concepts

•   MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$)
•   PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives)
•   AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics)
•   ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)
•   WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)
[ Constructing MVP ]
Role: Founder / CEO
Q: Which Customers? Problems? Metrics? Why?
A: Focus on Critical Few Actionable Metrics
   (if you don’t use the metric to make a decision, it’s not actionable)


• Hypothesize Customer Lifecycle
• Target ~3-5 Conversion Events (tip: Less = More)
• Test, Measure, Iterate to Improve
Optimize 4 Happiness
           (both User + Business)               $$$

•   Define States of User + Business Value
•   Prioritize (Estimate) Relative Value of Each State
•   Move Users: Lower Value -> Higher Value
•   Optimize for User Happiness + Business $$$
•   Achieve High Cust Value + Low ACQ$ @ Scale
What is Minimum Viable Product?
MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$)
• Focus on CUSTOMER
   – Qualitative Discovery, Quantitative Validation

• Get to know habits, problems, desires (FUN MATTERS)
   – what causes pain? what causes pleasure?

• Define 1-5 TESTABLE Conversion Metrics of Value
   –   Attention/Usage (session time, clicks)
   –   Customer Data (email, connect, profile)
   -   Revenue (direct or indirect)
   -   Retention (visits over time, cohort behavior)
   -   Referral (users evangelize to other users)

• Note: Paid Solutions drive FOCUS (& pay rent)
Example Conversion Metrics
                  (note: *not* actuals… your mileage may vary)


  Stage                     Conversion Status                         Conv.   Est. Value
                                                                        %     (*not* cost)

Acquisition         Visitors -> Site/Widget/Landing Page               60%       $.05
                (2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don’t abandon)

Activation              “Happy” 1st Visit; Usage/Signup                15%       $.25
              (clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature usage)

Retention            Users Come Back; Multiple Visits                  5%         $1
                 (1-3x visits/mo; email/feed open rate / CTR)

 Referral                    Users Refer Others                        1%         $5
                       (cust sat >=8; viral K factor > 1; )

 Revenue                    Users Pay / Generate $$$                   2%         $50
                   (first txn, break-even, target profitability)
KILL A FEATURE.
               Something Sucks. Find It. KILL It.


• STOP ADDING FEATURES.
• Find the ONE THING that users LOVE.
• How to figure out? TAKE. SHIT. AWAY.
• When they SCREAM, you’ve FOUND it.
• Then Bring it Back… Only Better.

• Tip: KILL a Feature Every Week.
[ Getting 2 PMF ]
Role: Product / Eng / Design
Q: What Features to Build? Why? When are you “Done”?
A: Easy-to-Find, Fun/Useful, Unique Features that
   Increase Conversion (stop iterating when increase decelerates)

•   Wireframes = Conversion Steps
•   Measure, A/B Test, Iterate FAST (daily/weekly)
•   Optimize for Conversion Improvement
     – 80% on existing feature optimization
     – 20% on new feature development
What is Product/Market Fit?
PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives*)

• Product / Market Fit occurs when:
   – Customers like your stuff better than other options
   – Not static, Not optimal – just Local Max 4 F(customers, solution, time)
   – make sure you’re moving in optimal direction 2 local max
• Q: what competitive solutions are available?
   – … that your customers know about?
   – how are you diff/same?
   – in ways that people care about? (will pay for)


• KILL a FEATURE regularly (or rotate 1% tests)
   – Q: what is MOST $ cust pay 4 LEAST func MVP relative 2 BEST alt?


• NICHE 2 WIN: RE-define cust + DIFFerentiated features
Better or Different.

                Funny!




                                  Shocking
Accepted
                                     !!!




               Not Funny.
[ Testing 4 AUX ]
Discover Meaning
         Why Should Users CARE About Your Product?




Kathy Sierra:
“Creating
Passionate
Users”
Discover Meaning
                Keywords, Images, Call-to-Action

Top 10 - 100 words                     Call-to-Action
    • Your Brand / Products                 • Words
    • Customer Needs / Benefits             • Images
    • Competitor’s Brand / Products         • Context
    • Semantic Equivalents                  • Button/Link
    • Misspellings                          • Emotion


Relevant images                        Result
    • People                              • Positive?
    • Products                            • Negative?
    • Problems                            • Neutral (= Death)
    • Solutions                           • A/B test & Iterate
How 2 Tell if Design/UX is Good?
[ Metrics 4 ACQ ]
Role: Marketing / Sales

Q: What channels? Which users? Why?
A: High Volume (#), Low Cost ($), High Conv (%)

•    Design & Test Multiple Marketing Channels + Campaigns
•    Select & Focus on Best-Performing Channels & Themes
•    Optimize for conversion to target CTAs, not just site/landing page
•    Match/Drive channel cost to/below revenue potential

•     Low-Hanging Fruit:
    –    Blogs
    –    SEO/SEM
    –    Landing Pages
    –    Automated Emails
Example Marketing Channels


•   PR                   •   Email
•   Contest              •   SEO / SEM
•   Biz Dev              •   Blogs / Bloggers
•   Direct Marketing     •   Viral / Referral
•   Radio / TV / Print   •   Affiliate / CPA
•   Dedicated Sales      •   Widgets / Apps
•   Telemarketing        •   LOLCats ;)
MAARRRketing Plan
  ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)
Marketing Plan = Target Customer Acquisition Channels
   • 3 Important Factors = Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%)
   • Measure conversion to target customer actions
   • Test audience segments, campaign themes, Call-To-Action (CTAs)

[Gradually] Match Channel Costs => Revenue Potential
    • Increase Vol. & Conversion, Decrease Cost, Optimize for Revenue Potential
    • Avg Txn Value (ATV), Ann Rev Per User (ARPU), Cust Lifetime Value (CLV)
    • Design channels that (eventually) cost <20-50% of target ATV, ARPU, CLV

Consider Costs, Scarce Resource Tradeoffs
   • Actual $ expenses
   • Marketing time & resources
   • Product/Engineering time & resources
   • Cashflow timing of expense vs. revenue, profit
[ What is WINNING? ]
Choose #WINNING Metrics

WIN = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)

• after MVP functional use, several options:
  – better Usage – Activation & Retention (AUX)
  – more Users -- Distribution / Acquisition
  – mo' Money --- U Wants 2 Get Paid, Yo.


• understand ACQ$ vs REV$, optimize 4 short-term
  – High(er) volume usually a priority
  – costs may change as vol increases
[ The Lean Investor ]
Startup 2.0:
       “Lean Investor” Model
Method: Invest in startups using incremental
 investment, iterative development. Start with
 lots of small experiments, filter out failure, and
 expand investment upon success.

• Incubator: $0-100K (“Product Viability”)
• Seed: $100-$1M (“Expand Distribution”)
• Venture: $1M-$5M (“Maximize Revenue”)
Investment #1: Incubate
                             (“Product”)
• Structure
   – 1-3 founders
   – $25K-$100K investment
   – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors

• Build Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP):
   –   Concept->Alpha, ~3-6 months
   –   Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works”
   –   Instrument Basic Dashboard, Conversion Metrics
   –   Test Cust. Adoption (10-1000 users) / Cust. Satisfaction (Scale: 1-10)

• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use
• Develop Metrics & Filter for Follow-on Investment
Investment #2: Seed
• Structure
                               (“Market”)
   – 2-5 person team
   – $100K-$1M investment
   – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds


• Improve Product, Expand Market, Test Revenue:
   –   Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months
   –   Customer Sat ≥ 6 => Get to “Doesn’t Suck”
   –   Setup A/B Testing Framework, Optimize Conversion
   –   Test Marketing Campaigns, Cust Acqstn Channels

• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size
• Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity
• Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
Investment #3: Venture
                             (“Revenue”)
• Structure
   – 5-10 person team
   – $1M-$5M investment
   – VC Investors


• Make Money, Get to Sustainability:
   –   Beta->Production, 12-18 months
   –   Customer Sat ≥ 8 => “It Rocks, I’ll Tell My Friends”
   –   MktgPlan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget
   –   Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations
   –   Connect with Distribution Partners

• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business
• Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
Links & Resources
Additional References:
• Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Robert Cialdini (book)
• The Mating Mind Geoffrey Miller (book)
• Putting the Fun in Functional Amy Jo Kim (etech 2006 preso)
• Futuristic Play Andrew Chen (blog)
• Don’t Make Me Think Steve Krug (book)
• Designing for the Social Web Joshua Porter (book, website)
• Startup Lessons Learned Eric Ries (blog)
• Customer Development Methodology Steve Blank (presentation, blog)
• Startup-Marketing.com Sean Ellis (blog)
• KISSmetrics.com Hiten Shah / Neil Patel (website)
• How To Pitch a VC Dave McClure (slides, NSFW)
• Understanding Comics Scott McCloud (book)
Appendix
Startup Metrics

 Activation
Activation
                         SEO          Campaigns,
              SEM                PR    Contests     Biz
 Social
Networks                                            Dev
                Blogs                  Affiliates                 Activation Criteria:
Apps &                                              Direct,
Widgets                 Email                       Tel, TV       • 10-30+ seconds
          Domains                                                 • 2-3+ page views
                                                                  • 3-5+ clicks
                                                                  • 1 key feature usage




                                                              do LOTS of landing page
                                                              & A/B tests –
                                                              make lots of dumb
                                                              guesses & iterate FAST
                                  Website.com
Activation
         What do users do on their first visit?

Example Activation Goals
   • Click on something!
   • Account sign up / Emails
   • Referrals / Tell a friend
   • Widgets / Embeds
   • Low Bounce Rate

Activation Tips
    • Less is more
    • Focus on user experience / usability
    • Provide incentives & call to actions
    • Test and iterate continuously
Activation
       What do users do on their first visit?


Key Metrics to Track
   Pages per visit
   Time on site
   Conversions
Activation
Tools
   Crazy Egg (Visual Click Mapping)
        http://crazyegg.com
   Google Website Optimizer (A/B & Multivariate Testing)
        http://google.com/websiteoptimizer
   Marketo.com (B2B Lead Generation Management)
        http://marketo.com


Resources
   Experimentation and Testing: A Primer
        kaushik.net/avinash/2006/05/experimentation-and-testing-a-primer.html
   Landing Page Design Toolbox: 100 Tips & Tools
        http://tinyurl.com/326co6
   Landing Page Tutorials & Case Studies
        http://www.copyblogger.com/landing-pages/
   101 Easy Easy to use Google Website Optimizer
        http://conversion-rate-experts.com/articles/101-google-website-optimizer-tips/
Startup Metrics

 Retention
Retention
                                                                           SEO         Campaigns,
Automated emails:                                                SEM              PR    Contests     Biz
                                                   Social
                                                  Networks                                           Dev
• lifecycle emails @ +3, +7, +30d                                 Blogs                 Affiliates
                                                 Apps &                                              Direct,
• status / “best of” weekly/monthly              Widgets                  Email                      Tel, TV
• “something happened” emails                               Domains

     BUT:
• make it easy to unsubscribe

                                          Emails & Alerts




                                  Blogs, RSS,
                                  News Feeds


Tip on emails:
• > 80% or more on SUBJECT LINE
                                             System Events &
• < 20% or less on BODY TEXT               Time-based Features


                                                                                   Website.com
Retention
            How do users come back? How often?


Cohort Analysis:
• Distrib of Visits over Time
• Rate of Decay
• Effective Customer Lifecycle

Retention Methods
 Automated Emails
   * Track open rate / CTR / Quantity
 RSS / News Feeds
   * Track % viewed / CTR / Quantity
 Widgets / Embeds
   * Track impressions / CTR / Quantity
Retention
       How do users come back? How often?

Example Retention Goals
   • 1 - 3+ visits per month
   • 20% open rate / 2% CTR
   • High deliverability / Low spam rating
   • Long customer life cycle / Low decay
   • Identify fanatics and cheerleaders

Retention Tips
   • Email is simple and it works
   • BUT make unsubscribe easy
   • 80% subject line / 20% body text
   • ACTUALLY 99% subject line / 1% body text
   • Fanatics = virality + affiliate channel (bloggers?)
Retention
         How do users come back? How often?

Key Metrics to Track
      Source
      Quantity
      Conversions
      Visitor Loyalty
      Session Length
Retention
Tools
   Campaign Monitor / MailChimp (email newsletter software)
        campaignmonitor.com / mailchimp.com
   TriggerMail (site-centric email management)
        triggermail.net
   Litmus (email and website design testing - clients / browsers)
        litmusapp.com


Resources
   30 free HTML email templates
        campaignmonitor.com/resources/templates.aspx
   Best Practices in Writing Email Subject Lines
        mailchimp.com/resources/best-practices-in-writing-email-subject-
        lines.phtml
   Learning Viral: Viral Emails of Tagged.com
        okdork.com/2008/04/10/learning-viral-studying-taggedcom/
Startup Metrics

Acquisition
Acquisition
                         SEO         Campaigns,
              SEM               PR    Contests      Biz
 Social
Networks                                            Dev
                Blogs                 Affiliates
Apps &                                              Direct,
Widgets                 Email                       Tel, TV

          Domains




                                                   Marketing Channels:
                                                      • largest-volume (#)
                                                      • lowest-cost ($)
                                                      • best-performing (%)


                          Website.com
Acquisition
        Where are users coming from?


Acquisition Methods
 SEO / SEM
 Blogs
 Email
 Social Media &
  Social Networks
 Domains
Acquisition
                     Keyword Vocabulary


Top 10 - 100 words
    • Your Brand / Products
    • Customer Needs / Benefits
    • Competitor’s Brand / Products
    • Semantic Equivalents
    • Misspellings

Things to analyze
    • Sources
    • Volume
    • Cost
    • Conversion
Acquisition
         Where are users coming from?



Key Metrics to Track           Example
   Quantity (#)
   Cost ($)
   Conversions (%)
Acquisition
Tools
   Google Analytics (web analytics)
        google.com/analytics
   Google Keyword Tool (keyword research tool)
        adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal
   SEO Book Tools (SEO related tools)
        tools.seobook.com


Resources
   SEO Book Blog
        seobook.com/blog
   The Social Media Manual: Read Before You Play
        searchengineland.com/071120-144401.php
   Strategies to ruthlessly acquire users

        andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/04/10_obvious_stra.
        html
Startup Metrics

  Referral
Referral
                                    SEO              Campaigns,
                          SEM                  PR     Contests        Biz
          Social
         Networks                                                     Dev
                           Blogs                         Affiliates
        Apps &                                                        Direct,
        Widgets                    Email                              Tel, TV
                                           Acquisition
                  Domains




        Emails & Alerts




Blogs, RSS,
                            n
News Feeds             ntio
                  Rete

                                                                                Focus on driving referrals
           System Events &
         Time-based Features
                                                                                *after* users have a
                                                                                “happy” experience;
                                                                                 avg score >= 8 out of 10
                                                     Website.com
Referral
          How do users refer others?

Referral Methods
 Send to Friend:
  Email / IM
 Social Media
 Widgets / Embeds
 Affiliates
Referral
                       Viral Growth Factor

  Viral Growth Factor = X * Y * Z
     X = % of users who invite other people
     Y = average # of people that they invited
     Z = % of users who accepted an invitation




A viral growth factor > 1 means an exponential organic user acquisition.
Referral
Tools
   Gigya (social media distribution & tracking tool)
        gigya.com
   ShareThis / AddThis (sharing buttons)
        sharethis.com / addthis.com
   GetMyContacts (PHP contacts importing & invitation software)
        getmycontacts.com


Resources
   Seven Ways to GO VIRAL
        lsvp.wordpress.com/2007/03/02/seven-ways-to-go-viral/
   What’s your viral loop? Understanding the engine of adoption
        andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/07/whats-your-
        vira.html
   Metrics: Where Users Come From
        slideshare.net/guest2968b8/rockyou-snap-summit-32508
Startup Metrics

  Revenue
Revenue
                                       SEO           Campaigns,
                          SEM                  PR     Contests        Biz
          Social
         Networks                                                     Dev
                           Blogs                         Affiliates
        Apps &                                                        Direct,
        Widgets                    Email                              Tel, TV
                                           Acquisition
                  Domains




        Emails & Alerts




Blogs, RSS,
                              io   n
News Feeds
                  R   ete n t

                                                    Ads, Lead Gen,                 Biz Dev
           System Events &                          Subscriptions,
                                                                       Rev
         Time-based Features
                                                     ECommerce
                                                                           enu
       This is the part *you*                        Website.com
                                                                               e$$$
       still have to figure out…
       (we don’t know jack
       about your business)
Revenue
              How do you make money?


Revenue Tips
  •   Don’t Rely on AdSense (only)
  •   Start Free => 2% “Freemium”
  •   Subscription / Recurring transactions
  •   Qualify your customers -> Lead generation (arbitrage)
  •   Sell something! (physical or virtual)
Revenue
Resources & Tools
   Revenue Metrics (Andrew Chen)
      http://tinyurl.com/47r63a
   How to Create a Profitable “Freemium” Startup (Andrew Chen)
      http://tinyurl.com/8z9ygk
   2008 Affiliate Marketing Review (Scott Jangro)
      http://tinyurl.com/86wak4

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Startup Metrics 4 Pirates (Wildfire Interactive, May 2012)

  • 1. Startup Metrics For Pirates AARRR ! Wildfire Interactive Redwood Shores May 2012 - #AARRR Dave McClure @DaveMcClure http://500.co http://500hats.typepad.com http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats
  • 2. Dave McClure Developer, Entrepreneur, Marketer, Investor, GEEK! 00’s & 10’s: • Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media • Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  • 3. 500 Startups Seed Fund & Accelerator (300+ companies, 15+ countries)
  • 5. Topics • Basic Concepts of “Startup Metrics 4 Pirates” • 3 Steps to AARRR: Product, Market, Revenue • Constructing MVP: Just ONE Feature? • Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) • Winning: Market, Revenue, Profit?
  • 6. Key Concepts • MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) • PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives) • AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics) • ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv) • WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)
  • 7. Geek Renaissance • Tech Innovation • Finance Innovation • Design Innovation • Social Innovation • Global Innovation
  • 9. What’s a Platform? Successful Platforms have 3 Things: Features 1) Features 2) Users 3) Money Growth Profit Awesome . Profitable Users . Growth Money
  • 10. Distribution Platforms Customer Reach: 100M+ • Search: Google (SEO/SEM) • Social: Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, LinkedIn • Mobile: Apple (iPhone, iPad), Android • Media: YouTube (Video), Blogs, Photos • Comm: Email, Chat, SMS, Voice
  • 11. DO Marketing! (It’s Not Evil) • Marketing is Both Qualitative + Quantitative • Qualitative: Create Emotion, Drive Action • Quantitative: Measure Results of Action • Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) Matter • Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%)
  • 13. Read Geoffrey Miller Sex + Evolution + Consumer Mktg = Awesome Sauce
  • 14. More Great Shit. Psychology + Comics
  • 15. [The Lean Startup] [Startup Metrics 4 Pirates]
  • 16. Just Gimme the GOOD Metrics. Users, Pages, Clicks, Emails, $$$...? Q: Which of these is best? How do you know? • 1,000,000 one-time, unregistered unique visitors • 500,000 visitors who view 2+ pages / stay 10+ sec the good • 200,000 visitors who clicked on a link or button stuff. • 20,000 registered users w/ email address • 2,000 passionate fans who refer 5+ users / mo. • 1,000 monthly subscribers @ $5/mo
  • 17. The Lean Startup • Talk to Customers; Discover Problems • Progress ≠ Features (Less = More) • Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop) • Measure Conversion; Compare 2+ Options • Focus on Product/Market Fit (don’t “launch” b4) • Keep it Simple & Actionable
  • 19. Iterate, Dammit. (Eric Ries, StartupLessonsLearned.com) IDEAS LEARN BUILD DATA CODE MEASURE
  • 20. Product/Market Fit b4 “Launch” (Sean Ellis, Startup-Marketing.com) Startup-Marketing.com
  • 21. AARRR!: 5-Step Startup Metrics Model SEO Campaigns, SEM PR Contests Biz Social Networks Dev Blogs Affiliates Apps & Direct, Widgets Email Tel, TV ACQUISITION Domains Emails & Alerts Blogs, RSS, io n News Feeds R e tent Ads, Lead Gen, Biz Dev System Events & Subscriptions, Rev Time-based Features ECommerce enu Website.com e$$$
  • 22. Startup Metrics for Pirates • Acquisition: users come to site from various channels • Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience • Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times • Referral: users like product enough to refer others • Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior AARRR! (note: If you’re in a hurry, Google “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)
  • 23. One Step at a Time. 1. Make a Good Product: Activation & Retention 2. Market the Product: Acquisition & Referral 3. Make Money: Revenue & Profitability “You probably can’t save your Ass and your Face at the same time… so choose carefully.” – DMC
  • 24. Startup Challenges Startups have problems in 3 key areas: • Management: Set Priorities, Define Key Metrics • Product: Build “Right” Features. Measure, Iterate. • Marketing: Distribution, Distribution, Distribution. (Search, Social, Mobile)
  • 25. Key Concepts • MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) • PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives) • AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics) • ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv) • WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)
  • 27. Role: Founder / CEO Q: Which Customers? Problems? Metrics? Why? A: Focus on Critical Few Actionable Metrics (if you don’t use the metric to make a decision, it’s not actionable) • Hypothesize Customer Lifecycle • Target ~3-5 Conversion Events (tip: Less = More) • Test, Measure, Iterate to Improve
  • 28. Optimize 4 Happiness (both User + Business) $$$ • Define States of User + Business Value • Prioritize (Estimate) Relative Value of Each State • Move Users: Lower Value -> Higher Value • Optimize for User Happiness + Business $$$ • Achieve High Cust Value + Low ACQ$ @ Scale
  • 29. What is Minimum Viable Product? MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) • Focus on CUSTOMER – Qualitative Discovery, Quantitative Validation • Get to know habits, problems, desires (FUN MATTERS) – what causes pain? what causes pleasure? • Define 1-5 TESTABLE Conversion Metrics of Value – Attention/Usage (session time, clicks) – Customer Data (email, connect, profile) - Revenue (direct or indirect) - Retention (visits over time, cohort behavior) - Referral (users evangelize to other users) • Note: Paid Solutions drive FOCUS (& pay rent)
  • 30. Example Conversion Metrics (note: *not* actuals… your mileage may vary) Stage Conversion Status Conv. Est. Value % (*not* cost) Acquisition Visitors -> Site/Widget/Landing Page 60% $.05 (2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don’t abandon) Activation “Happy” 1st Visit; Usage/Signup 15% $.25 (clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature usage) Retention Users Come Back; Multiple Visits 5% $1 (1-3x visits/mo; email/feed open rate / CTR) Referral Users Refer Others 1% $5 (cust sat >=8; viral K factor > 1; ) Revenue Users Pay / Generate $$$ 2% $50 (first txn, break-even, target profitability)
  • 31. KILL A FEATURE. Something Sucks. Find It. KILL It. • STOP ADDING FEATURES. • Find the ONE THING that users LOVE. • How to figure out? TAKE. SHIT. AWAY. • When they SCREAM, you’ve FOUND it. • Then Bring it Back… Only Better. • Tip: KILL a Feature Every Week.
  • 32. [ Getting 2 PMF ]
  • 33. Role: Product / Eng / Design Q: What Features to Build? Why? When are you “Done”? A: Easy-to-Find, Fun/Useful, Unique Features that Increase Conversion (stop iterating when increase decelerates) • Wireframes = Conversion Steps • Measure, A/B Test, Iterate FAST (daily/weekly) • Optimize for Conversion Improvement – 80% on existing feature optimization – 20% on new feature development
  • 34. What is Product/Market Fit? PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives*) • Product / Market Fit occurs when: – Customers like your stuff better than other options – Not static, Not optimal – just Local Max 4 F(customers, solution, time) – make sure you’re moving in optimal direction 2 local max • Q: what competitive solutions are available? – … that your customers know about? – how are you diff/same? – in ways that people care about? (will pay for) • KILL a FEATURE regularly (or rotate 1% tests) – Q: what is MOST $ cust pay 4 LEAST func MVP relative 2 BEST alt? • NICHE 2 WIN: RE-define cust + DIFFerentiated features
  • 35. Better or Different. Funny! Shocking Accepted !!! Not Funny.
  • 36. [ Testing 4 AUX ]
  • 37. Discover Meaning Why Should Users CARE About Your Product? Kathy Sierra: “Creating Passionate Users”
  • 38. Discover Meaning Keywords, Images, Call-to-Action Top 10 - 100 words Call-to-Action • Your Brand / Products • Words • Customer Needs / Benefits • Images • Competitor’s Brand / Products • Context • Semantic Equivalents • Button/Link • Misspellings • Emotion Relevant images Result • People • Positive? • Products • Negative? • Problems • Neutral (= Death) • Solutions • A/B test & Iterate
  • 39. How 2 Tell if Design/UX is Good?
  • 40. [ Metrics 4 ACQ ]
  • 41. Role: Marketing / Sales Q: What channels? Which users? Why? A: High Volume (#), Low Cost ($), High Conv (%) • Design & Test Multiple Marketing Channels + Campaigns • Select & Focus on Best-Performing Channels & Themes • Optimize for conversion to target CTAs, not just site/landing page • Match/Drive channel cost to/below revenue potential • Low-Hanging Fruit: – Blogs – SEO/SEM – Landing Pages – Automated Emails
  • 42. Example Marketing Channels • PR • Email • Contest • SEO / SEM • Biz Dev • Blogs / Bloggers • Direct Marketing • Viral / Referral • Radio / TV / Print • Affiliate / CPA • Dedicated Sales • Widgets / Apps • Telemarketing • LOLCats ;)
  • 43. MAARRRketing Plan ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv) Marketing Plan = Target Customer Acquisition Channels • 3 Important Factors = Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%) • Measure conversion to target customer actions • Test audience segments, campaign themes, Call-To-Action (CTAs) [Gradually] Match Channel Costs => Revenue Potential • Increase Vol. & Conversion, Decrease Cost, Optimize for Revenue Potential • Avg Txn Value (ATV), Ann Rev Per User (ARPU), Cust Lifetime Value (CLV) • Design channels that (eventually) cost <20-50% of target ATV, ARPU, CLV Consider Costs, Scarce Resource Tradeoffs • Actual $ expenses • Marketing time & resources • Product/Engineering time & resources • Cashflow timing of expense vs. revenue, profit
  • 44. [ What is WINNING? ]
  • 45. Choose #WINNING Metrics WIN = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue) • after MVP functional use, several options: – better Usage – Activation & Retention (AUX) – more Users -- Distribution / Acquisition – mo' Money --- U Wants 2 Get Paid, Yo. • understand ACQ$ vs REV$, optimize 4 short-term – High(er) volume usually a priority – costs may change as vol increases
  • 46. [ The Lean Investor ]
  • 47. Startup 2.0: “Lean Investor” Model Method: Invest in startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with lots of small experiments, filter out failure, and expand investment upon success. • Incubator: $0-100K (“Product Viability”) • Seed: $100-$1M (“Expand Distribution”) • Venture: $1M-$5M (“Maximize Revenue”)
  • 48. Investment #1: Incubate (“Product”) • Structure – 1-3 founders – $25K-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors • Build Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Concept->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works” – Instrument Basic Dashboard, Conversion Metrics – Test Cust. Adoption (10-1000 users) / Cust. Satisfaction (Scale: 1-10) • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Follow-on Investment
  • 49. Investment #2: Seed • Structure (“Market”) – 2-5 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds • Improve Product, Expand Market, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Customer Sat ≥ 6 => Get to “Doesn’t Suck” – Setup A/B Testing Framework, Optimize Conversion – Test Marketing Campaigns, Cust Acqstn Channels • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  • 50. Investment #3: Venture (“Revenue”) • Structure – 5-10 person team – $1M-$5M investment – VC Investors • Make Money, Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-18 months – Customer Sat ≥ 8 => “It Rocks, I’ll Tell My Friends” – MktgPlan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  • 51. Links & Resources Additional References: • Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Robert Cialdini (book) • The Mating Mind Geoffrey Miller (book) • Putting the Fun in Functional Amy Jo Kim (etech 2006 preso) • Futuristic Play Andrew Chen (blog) • Don’t Make Me Think Steve Krug (book) • Designing for the Social Web Joshua Porter (book, website) • Startup Lessons Learned Eric Ries (blog) • Customer Development Methodology Steve Blank (presentation, blog) • Startup-Marketing.com Sean Ellis (blog) • KISSmetrics.com Hiten Shah / Neil Patel (website) • How To Pitch a VC Dave McClure (slides, NSFW) • Understanding Comics Scott McCloud (book)
  • 54. Activation SEO Campaigns, SEM PR Contests Biz Social Networks Dev Blogs Affiliates Activation Criteria: Apps & Direct, Widgets Email Tel, TV • 10-30+ seconds Domains • 2-3+ page views • 3-5+ clicks • 1 key feature usage do LOTS of landing page & A/B tests – make lots of dumb guesses & iterate FAST Website.com
  • 55. Activation What do users do on their first visit? Example Activation Goals • Click on something! • Account sign up / Emails • Referrals / Tell a friend • Widgets / Embeds • Low Bounce Rate Activation Tips • Less is more • Focus on user experience / usability • Provide incentives & call to actions • Test and iterate continuously
  • 56. Activation What do users do on their first visit? Key Metrics to Track  Pages per visit  Time on site  Conversions
  • 57. Activation Tools Crazy Egg (Visual Click Mapping) http://crazyegg.com Google Website Optimizer (A/B & Multivariate Testing) http://google.com/websiteoptimizer Marketo.com (B2B Lead Generation Management) http://marketo.com Resources Experimentation and Testing: A Primer kaushik.net/avinash/2006/05/experimentation-and-testing-a-primer.html Landing Page Design Toolbox: 100 Tips & Tools http://tinyurl.com/326co6 Landing Page Tutorials & Case Studies http://www.copyblogger.com/landing-pages/ 101 Easy Easy to use Google Website Optimizer http://conversion-rate-experts.com/articles/101-google-website-optimizer-tips/
  • 59. Retention SEO Campaigns, Automated emails: SEM PR Contests Biz Social Networks Dev • lifecycle emails @ +3, +7, +30d Blogs Affiliates Apps & Direct, • status / “best of” weekly/monthly Widgets Email Tel, TV • “something happened” emails Domains BUT: • make it easy to unsubscribe Emails & Alerts Blogs, RSS, News Feeds Tip on emails: • > 80% or more on SUBJECT LINE System Events & • < 20% or less on BODY TEXT Time-based Features Website.com
  • 60. Retention How do users come back? How often? Cohort Analysis: • Distrib of Visits over Time • Rate of Decay • Effective Customer Lifecycle Retention Methods  Automated Emails * Track open rate / CTR / Quantity  RSS / News Feeds * Track % viewed / CTR / Quantity  Widgets / Embeds * Track impressions / CTR / Quantity
  • 61. Retention How do users come back? How often? Example Retention Goals • 1 - 3+ visits per month • 20% open rate / 2% CTR • High deliverability / Low spam rating • Long customer life cycle / Low decay • Identify fanatics and cheerleaders Retention Tips • Email is simple and it works • BUT make unsubscribe easy • 80% subject line / 20% body text • ACTUALLY 99% subject line / 1% body text • Fanatics = virality + affiliate channel (bloggers?)
  • 62. Retention How do users come back? How often? Key Metrics to Track  Source  Quantity  Conversions  Visitor Loyalty  Session Length
  • 63. Retention Tools Campaign Monitor / MailChimp (email newsletter software) campaignmonitor.com / mailchimp.com TriggerMail (site-centric email management) triggermail.net Litmus (email and website design testing - clients / browsers) litmusapp.com Resources 30 free HTML email templates campaignmonitor.com/resources/templates.aspx Best Practices in Writing Email Subject Lines mailchimp.com/resources/best-practices-in-writing-email-subject- lines.phtml Learning Viral: Viral Emails of Tagged.com okdork.com/2008/04/10/learning-viral-studying-taggedcom/
  • 65. Acquisition SEO Campaigns, SEM PR Contests Biz Social Networks Dev Blogs Affiliates Apps & Direct, Widgets Email Tel, TV Domains Marketing Channels: • largest-volume (#) • lowest-cost ($) • best-performing (%) Website.com
  • 66. Acquisition Where are users coming from? Acquisition Methods  SEO / SEM  Blogs  Email  Social Media & Social Networks  Domains
  • 67. Acquisition Keyword Vocabulary Top 10 - 100 words • Your Brand / Products • Customer Needs / Benefits • Competitor’s Brand / Products • Semantic Equivalents • Misspellings Things to analyze • Sources • Volume • Cost • Conversion
  • 68. Acquisition Where are users coming from? Key Metrics to Track Example  Quantity (#)  Cost ($)  Conversions (%)
  • 69. Acquisition Tools Google Analytics (web analytics) google.com/analytics Google Keyword Tool (keyword research tool) adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal SEO Book Tools (SEO related tools) tools.seobook.com Resources SEO Book Blog seobook.com/blog The Social Media Manual: Read Before You Play searchengineland.com/071120-144401.php Strategies to ruthlessly acquire users andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/04/10_obvious_stra. html
  • 70. Startup Metrics Referral
  • 71. Referral SEO Campaigns, SEM PR Contests Biz Social Networks Dev Blogs Affiliates Apps & Direct, Widgets Email Tel, TV Acquisition Domains Emails & Alerts Blogs, RSS, n News Feeds ntio Rete Focus on driving referrals System Events & Time-based Features *after* users have a “happy” experience; avg score >= 8 out of 10 Website.com
  • 72. Referral How do users refer others? Referral Methods  Send to Friend: Email / IM  Social Media  Widgets / Embeds  Affiliates
  • 73. Referral Viral Growth Factor Viral Growth Factor = X * Y * Z X = % of users who invite other people Y = average # of people that they invited Z = % of users who accepted an invitation A viral growth factor > 1 means an exponential organic user acquisition.
  • 74. Referral Tools Gigya (social media distribution & tracking tool) gigya.com ShareThis / AddThis (sharing buttons) sharethis.com / addthis.com GetMyContacts (PHP contacts importing & invitation software) getmycontacts.com Resources Seven Ways to GO VIRAL lsvp.wordpress.com/2007/03/02/seven-ways-to-go-viral/ What’s your viral loop? Understanding the engine of adoption andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/07/whats-your- vira.html Metrics: Where Users Come From slideshare.net/guest2968b8/rockyou-snap-summit-32508
  • 75. Startup Metrics Revenue
  • 76. Revenue SEO Campaigns, SEM PR Contests Biz Social Networks Dev Blogs Affiliates Apps & Direct, Widgets Email Tel, TV Acquisition Domains Emails & Alerts Blogs, RSS, io n News Feeds R ete n t Ads, Lead Gen, Biz Dev System Events & Subscriptions, Rev Time-based Features ECommerce enu This is the part *you* Website.com e$$$ still have to figure out… (we don’t know jack about your business)
  • 77. Revenue How do you make money? Revenue Tips • Don’t Rely on AdSense (only) • Start Free => 2% “Freemium” • Subscription / Recurring transactions • Qualify your customers -> Lead generation (arbitrage) • Sell something! (physical or virtual)
  • 78. Revenue Resources & Tools Revenue Metrics (Andrew Chen) http://tinyurl.com/47r63a How to Create a Profitable “Freemium” Startup (Andrew Chen) http://tinyurl.com/8z9ygk 2008 Affiliate Marketing Review (Scott Jangro) http://tinyurl.com/86wak4

Editor's Notes

  1. I know, too many bullets…