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JLL Research
St. Louis | Q4 2019
Industrial
Outlook
An in-depth look at the
St. Louis industrial
market. Analysis includes
Insight, stats, and
leasing.
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2019
St. Louis
Industrial Insight
Employment in the industrial sector remains at a cyclical high and grew 2.4
percent year-over-year. The largest driver behind the growth was the
construction sector, which added over 5,000 jobs in the past 12 months.
Thanks in a large part to World Wide Technology (WWT), the industrial market
topped 4.0 million square feet of absorption for the fourth year in a row. WWT
delivered its second building of the year (1,010,880 square feet) in the Metro
East. WWT now occupies 3.5 million square feet of space in the Metro East,
which is over 8.0 percent of the total submarket. Another notable move of the
quarter was 24 Seven commencing on its lease at Hazelwood Tradeport III
(134,833 square feet), almost doubling its existing footprint in the market.
The biggest sale of the quarter was DRA Advisors acquisition of four properties
containing over a million square feet in North and Mid County. The
transaction was part of a larger portfolio deal from Sealy & Company. The
portfolio was purchased for $908.5 million and contained 106 properties with
over 16.0 million square feet. Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc. acquired 2635
Metro Boulevard (59,000 square feet) in Mid County. The property was
acquired for $3.5 million and is the second St. Louis acquisition in 2019 by the
Boston-based investment firm this year.
Outlook
Surpassing 4.0 million square feet of absorption in 2020 for a fifth year in a row
will be a challenge; but with over 12.0 million square feet of active tenants in
the market and over 2.0 million square feet set to deliver, there will certainly
be an opportunity to do so. E-commerce retailers and 3PL’s lead the way for
active tenants in the market, accounting for over a third of all requirements.
Fundamentals Forecast
YTD net absorption 4,102,202 s.f. ▶
QTD net absorption 1,304,573 s.f. ▼
Under construction 2,642,484 s.f. ▲
Total vacancy 5.2% ▲
Average asking rent (NNN) $4.23 p.s.f. ▶
Tenant improvements Flat ▶
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Supply and demand (s.f.) Net absorption
Deliveries
Build to suit projects help deliver another strong year
6.7%
5.8%
5.3%
4.4%
5.2%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total vacancy
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average asking rents ($/s.f.)
W&D Manufacturing
For more information, contact: Andrew Thompson | andrew.thompson@am.jll.com
• Deliveries outpaced absorption by over 2.0 million square feet.
• With several speculative buildings delivering vacant, vacancy remains
above 5.0 percent for the second consecutive quarter.
• Leasing activity continues to trend towards smaller tenants; 65.0
percent of leases signed in 2019 were less than 100,000 square feet.
St. Louis
Q4 2019
Industrial Statistics
Inventory
(s.f.)
Quarterly
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(% of stock)
Total
vacancy
(%)
Total
availability
(%)
Average
total asking
rent
($ p.s.f.)
Quarterly
completions
(s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Market Totals
Warehouse & Distribution 161,005,175 1,249,303 4,264,951 2.6% 6.6% 9.3% $4.27 2,433,737 6,117,459 1,980,984
Manufacturing 60,112,169 55,270 -162,749 -0.3% 1.6% 2.5% $3.82 0 0 661,500
Total Industrial 221,117,344 1,304,573 4,102,202 1.9% 5.2% 7.5% $4.23 2,433,737 6,117,459 2,642,484
Submarkets
Metro East
Warehouse & Distribution 31,097,191 1,025,880 2,116,135 6.8% 9.7% 15.1% $4.00 2,229,372 3,540,242 102,500
Manufacturing 9,469,754 8,234 -140,000 -1.5% 2.0% 4.1% $4.24 0 0 0
Total Industrial 40,566,945 1,034,114 1,976,135 4.9% 7.9% 12.5% $4.02 2,229,372 3,540,242 102,500
St. Louis City
Warehouse & Distribution 34,862,357 86,305 -70,429 -0.2% 4.8% 4.4% $4.00 0 0 155,000
Manufacturing 16,456,349 4,586 32,586 0.2% 2.8% 3.2% $2.60 0 0 0
Total Industrial 51,318,706 90,891 -37,843 -0.1% 4.1% 4.0% $3.64 0 0 155,000
Mid County
Warehouse & Distribution 21,588,021 169,418 197,835 0.9% 3.1% 4.5% $4.57 0 0 0
Manufacturing 5,820,995 5,000 9,886 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% $3.85 0 0 0
Total Industrial 27,409,016 174,418 207,721 0.8% 2.5% 3.5% $4.57 0 0 0
South County
Warehouse & Distribution 8,936,403 145,149 429,255 4.8% 9.1% 8.8% $6.26 0 158,400 372,750
Manufacturing 3,933,131 0 42,520 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% $5.30 0 0 0
Total Industrial 12,869,534 145,149 471,775 3.7% 6.8% 6.6% $6.26 0 158,400 372,750
West County
Warehouse & Distribution 2,551,795 3,817 -62,071 -2.4% 4.0% 3.9% $5.90 0 0 0
Manufacturing 2,799,134 -62,550 -203,524 -7.3% 7.3% 8.4% $5.58 0 0 0
Total Industrial 5,350,929 -58,733 -265,595 -5.0% 5.7% 6.2% $5.68 0 0 0
North County
Warehouse & Distribution 37,229,053 -191,811 164,818 0.4% 9.0% 16.4% $3.85 204,365 697,365 1,047,734
Manufacturing 9,267,205 100,000 85,783 0.9% 0.3% 2.1% $4.35 0 0 171,500
Total Industrial 46,496,258 -91,811 250,601 0.5% 7.3% 13.5% $3.87 204,365 697,365 1,219,234
St. Charles County
Warehouse & Distribution 17,462,126 10,545 1,429,408 8.2% 5.2% 4.2% $4.73 0 1,721,452 303,000
Manufacturing 8,115,858 0 10,000 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% $3.42 0 0 190,000
Total Industrial 25,577,984 10,545 1,439,408 5.6% 3.6% 2.9% $4.71 0 1,721,452 493,000
Other Counties
Warehouse & Distribution 7,278,229 0 60,000 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% $3.30 0 0 0
Manufacturing 4,249,743 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% $3.00 0 0 300,000
Total Industrial 11,527,972 0 60,000 0.5% 0.5% 1.9% $3.18 0 0 300,000
Andrew Thompson | Senior Research Analyst
211 N Broadway, St. Louis, MO 63102 | tel +1 314 202 8628 | andrew.thompson@am.jll.com
2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
St. Louis
Q4 2019
Industrial development
This report analyzes all industrial developments under construction & new deliveries > 30,000 s.f.
Total leased at delivery (%) 64.2%
Total speculative at delivery (s.f.) 2,450,092
Total BTS at delivery (s.f.) 3,368,011
Total Owner-User at delivery (s.f.) 300,000
Total # of properties delivered 11
Asking rental rate (low - high) $4.50 - $5.25
Top projects delivered to date
Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date
Leased at
delivery (%)
WWT Building I 1,010,880 Q3 2019 99%
WWT Building II 1,010,879 Q4 2019 99%
Amazon DC 855,000 2019 100%
100 Inner Park Dr 674,752 Q4 2019 0%
Gateway Tradeport I 543,740 Q4 2019 0%
Total pre-leased (%) 42.4%
Total speculative under construction (s.f.) 1,775,484
Total BTS under construction (s.f.) 567,000
Total Owner-user under construction (s.f.) 300,000
Total # of properties UC 12
Asking rental rate (low - high) $5.15 - $6.25
Top projects currently under construction
Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date Pre-leased (%)
Aviator 9 416,093 Q1 2020 0%
Hazelwood Tradeport IV 407,552 Q4 2020 0%
Melton Machine Building 300,000 2020 100%
Aviator 8 224,089 Q2 2020 0%
Westgate 200 200,000 Q4 2019 35%
Historical deliveries (s.f.)
New deliveries
6,118,103
Total delivered YTD (s.f.)
Completions in-depth
Submarket Owner Construction type
Metro East Tristar BTS
Metro East Tristar BTS
St. Charles County Duke Realty BTS
Submarket Owner Construction type
Metro East Exeter Property Group Speculative
Metro East Northpoint Speculative
Under construction
2,642,484
Under construction (s.f.)
Under construction in-depth
Under construction by submarket
North County Panattoni Speculative
North County Northpoint Speculative
St. Charles County The Millstone Company Speculative
Other Melton Machine Owner-user
North County Panattoni Speculative
1,219,234
493,000
372,750
300,000
155,000
102,500
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
North County St. Charles County South County Other St. Louis City Metro East
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
St. Louis | Q4 2019
St. Louis job growth remains strong
Employment Update
3.0%
St. Louis
unemployment
3.1%
Missouri
unemployment
3.5%
U.S.
unemployment
1.6%
St. Louis
12-month job
growth
1.3%
Missouri 12-
month job
growth
1.5%
U.S. 12-month
job growth
Total jobs vs. unemployment rate
Industrial employment trends
(12-month change in thousands)
Job growth/loss by sector
(12-month change)
Office employment trends
(12-month change in thousands)
Labor force and employment trends
Job growth: United States vs. St. Louis
(12-month change)
Employment
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Financial Activities PBS Information Government
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2013 2015 2017 2019
Millions
labor force employment
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
2013 2015 2017 2019
Millions
Total Employment
Unemployment
-2
3
8
13
18
Mining, Logging & Const Trade, Transp & Util
Manufacturing Other Services
-1,000
-400
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,100
3,400
5,300
5,500
Other Services
Information
Financial Activities
Educational & Health Services
Government
Professional & Business Services
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hospitality
Mining and Logging
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Number
of jobs-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2013 2015 2017 2019
St. Louis U.S.
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Andrew Thompson
Senior Research Analyst
+1 314 202 8628
andrew.thompson@am.jll.com
About JLL
A JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm
that specializes in real estate and investment
management. Our vision is to reimagine the world of real
estate, creating rewarding opportunities and amazing
spaces where people can achieve their ambitions. In
doing so, we will build a better tomorrow for our clients,
our people and our communities. JLL is a Fortune 500
company with nearly 300 corporate offices, operations in
over 80 countries and a global workforce of 86,000 as of
June 30, 2018. JLL is the brand name, and a registered
trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For
further information, visit jll.com
About JLL Research
JLL’s industry-leading research group delivers
commercial real estate analysis and insights that drive
value in real estate decisions and support successful
strategies. In the Americas, 210 dedicated research
professionals produced more than 2,000 research reports
in 2016, educating and influencing readers with industry-
leading intelligence on real estate markets, forecasts and
trends.

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St. louis Q4 2019 Industrial Outlook

  • 1. JLL Research St. Louis | Q4 2019 Industrial Outlook An in-depth look at the St. Louis industrial market. Analysis includes Insight, stats, and leasing.
  • 2. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Q4 2019 St. Louis Industrial Insight Employment in the industrial sector remains at a cyclical high and grew 2.4 percent year-over-year. The largest driver behind the growth was the construction sector, which added over 5,000 jobs in the past 12 months. Thanks in a large part to World Wide Technology (WWT), the industrial market topped 4.0 million square feet of absorption for the fourth year in a row. WWT delivered its second building of the year (1,010,880 square feet) in the Metro East. WWT now occupies 3.5 million square feet of space in the Metro East, which is over 8.0 percent of the total submarket. Another notable move of the quarter was 24 Seven commencing on its lease at Hazelwood Tradeport III (134,833 square feet), almost doubling its existing footprint in the market. The biggest sale of the quarter was DRA Advisors acquisition of four properties containing over a million square feet in North and Mid County. The transaction was part of a larger portfolio deal from Sealy & Company. The portfolio was purchased for $908.5 million and contained 106 properties with over 16.0 million square feet. Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc. acquired 2635 Metro Boulevard (59,000 square feet) in Mid County. The property was acquired for $3.5 million and is the second St. Louis acquisition in 2019 by the Boston-based investment firm this year. Outlook Surpassing 4.0 million square feet of absorption in 2020 for a fifth year in a row will be a challenge; but with over 12.0 million square feet of active tenants in the market and over 2.0 million square feet set to deliver, there will certainly be an opportunity to do so. E-commerce retailers and 3PL’s lead the way for active tenants in the market, accounting for over a third of all requirements. Fundamentals Forecast YTD net absorption 4,102,202 s.f. ▶ QTD net absorption 1,304,573 s.f. ▼ Under construction 2,642,484 s.f. ▲ Total vacancy 5.2% ▲ Average asking rent (NNN) $4.23 p.s.f. ▶ Tenant improvements Flat ▶ 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Supply and demand (s.f.) Net absorption Deliveries Build to suit projects help deliver another strong year 6.7% 5.8% 5.3% 4.4% 5.2% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total vacancy $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Average asking rents ($/s.f.) W&D Manufacturing For more information, contact: Andrew Thompson | andrew.thompson@am.jll.com • Deliveries outpaced absorption by over 2.0 million square feet. • With several speculative buildings delivering vacant, vacancy remains above 5.0 percent for the second consecutive quarter. • Leasing activity continues to trend towards smaller tenants; 65.0 percent of leases signed in 2019 were less than 100,000 square feet.
  • 3. St. Louis Q4 2019 Industrial Statistics Inventory (s.f.) Quarterly total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (% of stock) Total vacancy (%) Total availability (%) Average total asking rent ($ p.s.f.) Quarterly completions (s.f.) YTD completions (s.f.) Under construction (s.f.) Market Totals Warehouse & Distribution 161,005,175 1,249,303 4,264,951 2.6% 6.6% 9.3% $4.27 2,433,737 6,117,459 1,980,984 Manufacturing 60,112,169 55,270 -162,749 -0.3% 1.6% 2.5% $3.82 0 0 661,500 Total Industrial 221,117,344 1,304,573 4,102,202 1.9% 5.2% 7.5% $4.23 2,433,737 6,117,459 2,642,484 Submarkets Metro East Warehouse & Distribution 31,097,191 1,025,880 2,116,135 6.8% 9.7% 15.1% $4.00 2,229,372 3,540,242 102,500 Manufacturing 9,469,754 8,234 -140,000 -1.5% 2.0% 4.1% $4.24 0 0 0 Total Industrial 40,566,945 1,034,114 1,976,135 4.9% 7.9% 12.5% $4.02 2,229,372 3,540,242 102,500 St. Louis City Warehouse & Distribution 34,862,357 86,305 -70,429 -0.2% 4.8% 4.4% $4.00 0 0 155,000 Manufacturing 16,456,349 4,586 32,586 0.2% 2.8% 3.2% $2.60 0 0 0 Total Industrial 51,318,706 90,891 -37,843 -0.1% 4.1% 4.0% $3.64 0 0 155,000 Mid County Warehouse & Distribution 21,588,021 169,418 197,835 0.9% 3.1% 4.5% $4.57 0 0 0 Manufacturing 5,820,995 5,000 9,886 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% $3.85 0 0 0 Total Industrial 27,409,016 174,418 207,721 0.8% 2.5% 3.5% $4.57 0 0 0 South County Warehouse & Distribution 8,936,403 145,149 429,255 4.8% 9.1% 8.8% $6.26 0 158,400 372,750 Manufacturing 3,933,131 0 42,520 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% $5.30 0 0 0 Total Industrial 12,869,534 145,149 471,775 3.7% 6.8% 6.6% $6.26 0 158,400 372,750 West County Warehouse & Distribution 2,551,795 3,817 -62,071 -2.4% 4.0% 3.9% $5.90 0 0 0 Manufacturing 2,799,134 -62,550 -203,524 -7.3% 7.3% 8.4% $5.58 0 0 0 Total Industrial 5,350,929 -58,733 -265,595 -5.0% 5.7% 6.2% $5.68 0 0 0 North County Warehouse & Distribution 37,229,053 -191,811 164,818 0.4% 9.0% 16.4% $3.85 204,365 697,365 1,047,734 Manufacturing 9,267,205 100,000 85,783 0.9% 0.3% 2.1% $4.35 0 0 171,500 Total Industrial 46,496,258 -91,811 250,601 0.5% 7.3% 13.5% $3.87 204,365 697,365 1,219,234 St. Charles County Warehouse & Distribution 17,462,126 10,545 1,429,408 8.2% 5.2% 4.2% $4.73 0 1,721,452 303,000 Manufacturing 8,115,858 0 10,000 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% $3.42 0 0 190,000 Total Industrial 25,577,984 10,545 1,439,408 5.6% 3.6% 2.9% $4.71 0 1,721,452 493,000 Other Counties Warehouse & Distribution 7,278,229 0 60,000 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% $3.30 0 0 0 Manufacturing 4,249,743 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% $3.00 0 0 300,000 Total Industrial 11,527,972 0 60,000 0.5% 0.5% 1.9% $3.18 0 0 300,000 Andrew Thompson | Senior Research Analyst 211 N Broadway, St. Louis, MO 63102 | tel +1 314 202 8628 | andrew.thompson@am.jll.com 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 4. St. Louis Q4 2019 Industrial development This report analyzes all industrial developments under construction & new deliveries > 30,000 s.f. Total leased at delivery (%) 64.2% Total speculative at delivery (s.f.) 2,450,092 Total BTS at delivery (s.f.) 3,368,011 Total Owner-User at delivery (s.f.) 300,000 Total # of properties delivered 11 Asking rental rate (low - high) $4.50 - $5.25 Top projects delivered to date Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date Leased at delivery (%) WWT Building I 1,010,880 Q3 2019 99% WWT Building II 1,010,879 Q4 2019 99% Amazon DC 855,000 2019 100% 100 Inner Park Dr 674,752 Q4 2019 0% Gateway Tradeport I 543,740 Q4 2019 0% Total pre-leased (%) 42.4% Total speculative under construction (s.f.) 1,775,484 Total BTS under construction (s.f.) 567,000 Total Owner-user under construction (s.f.) 300,000 Total # of properties UC 12 Asking rental rate (low - high) $5.15 - $6.25 Top projects currently under construction Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date Pre-leased (%) Aviator 9 416,093 Q1 2020 0% Hazelwood Tradeport IV 407,552 Q4 2020 0% Melton Machine Building 300,000 2020 100% Aviator 8 224,089 Q2 2020 0% Westgate 200 200,000 Q4 2019 35% Historical deliveries (s.f.) New deliveries 6,118,103 Total delivered YTD (s.f.) Completions in-depth Submarket Owner Construction type Metro East Tristar BTS Metro East Tristar BTS St. Charles County Duke Realty BTS Submarket Owner Construction type Metro East Exeter Property Group Speculative Metro East Northpoint Speculative Under construction 2,642,484 Under construction (s.f.) Under construction in-depth Under construction by submarket North County Panattoni Speculative North County Northpoint Speculative St. Charles County The Millstone Company Speculative Other Melton Machine Owner-user North County Panattoni Speculative 1,219,234 493,000 372,750 300,000 155,000 102,500 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 North County St. Charles County South County Other St. Louis City Metro East 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
  • 5. St. Louis | Q4 2019 St. Louis job growth remains strong Employment Update 3.0% St. Louis unemployment 3.1% Missouri unemployment 3.5% U.S. unemployment 1.6% St. Louis 12-month job growth 1.3% Missouri 12- month job growth 1.5% U.S. 12-month job growth Total jobs vs. unemployment rate Industrial employment trends (12-month change in thousands) Job growth/loss by sector (12-month change) Office employment trends (12-month change in thousands) Labor force and employment trends Job growth: United States vs. St. Louis (12-month change) Employment -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Financial Activities PBS Information Government 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2013 2015 2017 2019 Millions labor force employment 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2013 2015 2017 2019 Millions Total Employment Unemployment -2 3 8 13 18 Mining, Logging & Const Trade, Transp & Util Manufacturing Other Services -1,000 -400 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,100 3,400 5,300 5,500 Other Services Information Financial Activities Educational & Health Services Government Professional & Business Services Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Mining and Logging Trade, Transportation & Utilities Number of jobs-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2013 2015 2017 2019 St. Louis U.S.
  • 6. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Andrew Thompson Senior Research Analyst +1 314 202 8628 andrew.thompson@am.jll.com About JLL A JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management. Our vision is to reimagine the world of real estate, creating rewarding opportunities and amazing spaces where people can achieve their ambitions. In doing so, we will build a better tomorrow for our clients, our people and our communities. JLL is a Fortune 500 company with nearly 300 corporate offices, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of 86,000 as of June 30, 2018. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit jll.com About JLL Research JLL’s industry-leading research group delivers commercial real estate analysis and insights that drive value in real estate decisions and support successful strategies. In the Americas, 210 dedicated research professionals produced more than 2,000 research reports in 2016, educating and influencing readers with industry- leading intelligence on real estate markets, forecasts and trends.