환경 문제와 기술발전 등으로 재생 에너지, 천연가스 등 석탄을 대체하는 에너지원의 점유율이 늘어나면서 석탄의 인기는 확연히 줄어들고 있습니다.
석탄의 시대는 과연 이대로 저무는 걸까요?
세계 에너지 수요는 인구와 경제성장과 함께 지금도 꾸준히 증가하고 있고 가격 경쟁력과 공급 안정성이 뛰어난 석탄의 지위는 개발도상국을 중심으로 여전히 굳건할 것으로 전망됩니다.
세계 최대 석탄 생산국인 중국의 2020년까지 5억톤의 생산 설비 감축에 나서면서 세계의 석탄 가격이 크게 상승하고 있으며 덩달아 석탄 운송 시장 역시 다시금 활기를 띄고 있습니다. 또한 한국과 인도의 중심 에너지원은 향후 10년뒤에도 석탄 화력발전이 될 것으로 예상됩니다.
전통적인 석탄 수출국이었던 베트남은 이제 순 수입국으로 바뀔 정도로 석탄 소비량이 늘어나고 있습니다.
그래서 답은? Yes, but Not Yet.
This document provides a tutorial for using PLAXIS 3D software to model the settlement of a foundation in overconsolidated clay. The tutorial contains 4 cases: (1) A rigid foundation modeled with elastic elements, (2) A raft foundation with applied loads, (3) A pile-raft foundation. The tutorial guides the user through creating the geometry, generating a mesh, performing calculations, and viewing results. It also describes how to model soil layers, assign material properties, apply initial stresses, and set up plastic calculations.
The document discusses various ground improvement techniques including dry soil mixing, dynamic compaction, injection systems, rapid impact compaction, rigid inclusions, vibro compaction, vibro concrete columns, vibro piers, and wet soil mixing. It provides details on each technique such as how it is performed, the types of soils it can be used to treat, and examples of how it has been used to improve soil properties like bearing capacity, settlement, and liquefaction potential.
The document discusses the durability of concrete and the factors that affect it. It defines durability as the ability of concrete to resist weathering, chemical attack, and abrasion while maintaining its desired properties. The main factors discussed are abrasion, biological factors, temperature effects, freezing and thawing, and various types of chemical attacks including carbonation, chloride attack, acid attack, and sulfate attack. Prevention and mitigation methods are provided for each factor.
Stone columns are vertical columns of compacted aggregate formed through soils to improve them. They act as vertical drains to mitigate liquefaction, with negligible downsides. Stone columns are suitable for soils that don't respond to vibration alone, like silty/clayey sands and silts. Their installation via ramming is economically feasible in India as it requires no skilled labor. Key design considerations for stone columns include soil properties, layout, loading, and failure modes like general/local shear and bulging.
1. The document describes the direct shear test procedure used to determine the shear strength properties of soils. It involves applying a normal load to a soil sample confined in a shear box and measuring the shear stress and displacement as the sample is sheared.
2. The direct shear test can be conducted as unconsolidated-undrained (UU), consolidated-undrained (CU), or consolidated-drained (CD) tests. Shear strength parameters such as cohesion and friction angle are determined from graphs of shear stress versus shear displacement and shear stress versus normal stress.
3. The purpose of the direct shear test is to examine the shear strength of soil samples along
This document provides an introduction to ground improvement techniques. It discusses why ground improvement is required when soils have inadequate properties for a given engineering use. Common problem soils are listed, including soft soils, swelling soils, and loose sands. The document then summarizes various ground improvement methods such as dewatering using electro-osmosis, preloading, compaction techniques like vibro-compaction and dynamic compaction, and soil mixing using deep mixing methods. Details on how each technique works and the types of soils they are suitable for are provided.
Geotechnical Engineering-II [Lec #20: WT effect on Bearing Capcity)Muhammad Irfan
Class notes of Geotechnical Engineering course I used to teach at UET Lahore. Feel free to download the slide show.
Anyone looking to modify these files and use them for their own teaching purposes can contact me directly to get hold of editable version.
Sheet Piles; Advantages, Types and Methods - Sheet piles are commonly used for retaining walls, land reclamation, underground structures such as car parks and basements, in marine locations for riverbank protection, seawalls, cofferdams, and so on
This document provides a tutorial for using PLAXIS 3D software to model the settlement of a foundation in overconsolidated clay. The tutorial contains 4 cases: (1) A rigid foundation modeled with elastic elements, (2) A raft foundation with applied loads, (3) A pile-raft foundation. The tutorial guides the user through creating the geometry, generating a mesh, performing calculations, and viewing results. It also describes how to model soil layers, assign material properties, apply initial stresses, and set up plastic calculations.
The document discusses various ground improvement techniques including dry soil mixing, dynamic compaction, injection systems, rapid impact compaction, rigid inclusions, vibro compaction, vibro concrete columns, vibro piers, and wet soil mixing. It provides details on each technique such as how it is performed, the types of soils it can be used to treat, and examples of how it has been used to improve soil properties like bearing capacity, settlement, and liquefaction potential.
The document discusses the durability of concrete and the factors that affect it. It defines durability as the ability of concrete to resist weathering, chemical attack, and abrasion while maintaining its desired properties. The main factors discussed are abrasion, biological factors, temperature effects, freezing and thawing, and various types of chemical attacks including carbonation, chloride attack, acid attack, and sulfate attack. Prevention and mitigation methods are provided for each factor.
Stone columns are vertical columns of compacted aggregate formed through soils to improve them. They act as vertical drains to mitigate liquefaction, with negligible downsides. Stone columns are suitable for soils that don't respond to vibration alone, like silty/clayey sands and silts. Their installation via ramming is economically feasible in India as it requires no skilled labor. Key design considerations for stone columns include soil properties, layout, loading, and failure modes like general/local shear and bulging.
1. The document describes the direct shear test procedure used to determine the shear strength properties of soils. It involves applying a normal load to a soil sample confined in a shear box and measuring the shear stress and displacement as the sample is sheared.
2. The direct shear test can be conducted as unconsolidated-undrained (UU), consolidated-undrained (CU), or consolidated-drained (CD) tests. Shear strength parameters such as cohesion and friction angle are determined from graphs of shear stress versus shear displacement and shear stress versus normal stress.
3. The purpose of the direct shear test is to examine the shear strength of soil samples along
This document provides an introduction to ground improvement techniques. It discusses why ground improvement is required when soils have inadequate properties for a given engineering use. Common problem soils are listed, including soft soils, swelling soils, and loose sands. The document then summarizes various ground improvement methods such as dewatering using electro-osmosis, preloading, compaction techniques like vibro-compaction and dynamic compaction, and soil mixing using deep mixing methods. Details on how each technique works and the types of soils they are suitable for are provided.
Geotechnical Engineering-II [Lec #20: WT effect on Bearing Capcity)Muhammad Irfan
Class notes of Geotechnical Engineering course I used to teach at UET Lahore. Feel free to download the slide show.
Anyone looking to modify these files and use them for their own teaching purposes can contact me directly to get hold of editable version.
Sheet Piles; Advantages, Types and Methods - Sheet piles are commonly used for retaining walls, land reclamation, underground structures such as car parks and basements, in marine locations for riverbank protection, seawalls, cofferdams, and so on
This document discusses flexural strength testing of materials. Flexural strength refers to a material's ability to resist deformation when bent or flexed. The flexural strength test involves placing a specimen on supports and applying a load at the center or at third points until failure. The flexural strength or modulus of rupture is calculated based on the maximum load at failure, and the dimensions and span of the specimen. Proper apparatus, loading rates, and procedures are required to accurately determine the flexural strength. Test results should report key details like specimen information, loading conditions, and failure mode.
This document outlines test methods for determining the magnitude and rate of consolidation of soils under controlled-stress loading. There are two alternative test methods:
Method A involves constant 24-hour load increments and time-deformation readings on a minimum of two increments. Method B requires time-deformation readings on all increments and successive increments are applied after 100% primary consolidation or at constant time increments as in Method A.
The test determines the relationship between effective stress and void ratio/strain of a laterally restrained soil specimen under axial drainage and incremental loading. Test results are used to estimate settlement magnitudes and rates, but can be affected by sample disturbance so care must be taken in sample selection and preparation. Load increments and durations
For full course visit our website
https://www.machenlink.com/course/foundation-engineering/
Description
Wash boring is a fast and simple method for advancing holes in all types of soils.
Boulders and rock cannot be penetrated by this method.
The method consists in first driving a casing through which a hollow drill rod with a sharp chisel or chopping bit at the lower end is inserted.
Water is forced under pressure through the drill rod which is alternately raised and dropped and also rotated.
The resulting chopping and jetting action of the bit and water disintegrate the soil.
The cutting is forced up to the ground surface in the form of soil − water slurry through the annular space between the drill rod and the casing.
The change of soil stratification could be guessed from the rate of progress and the colour of wash water.
The samples recovered from the wash water are almost valueless for interpreting the correct geotechnical properties of soil.
For full course visit our website :
https://www.machenlink.com/course/foundation-engineering/
Follow #MachenLink
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/machenLink/
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/machenlink/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MachenLink
1. Plate load tests are conducted to determine the ultimate bearing capacity of soil and settlement under a given load by applying loads to circular or square steel plates embedded in an excavated pit.
2. The test setup involves excavating a pit below the depth of the proposed foundation, placing the test plate with a central hole at the bottom, and applying load using a hydraulic jack while measuring settlement.
3. The results provide the subgrade modulus, ultimate bearing capacity divided by a safety factor to determine the safe bearing capacity, and insight into foundation behavior and allowable settlement for design.
This document discusses bearing capacity of shallow foundations. It defines bearing capacity as the ability of soil to safely carry pressure without shear failure. Terzaghi's bearing capacity theory from 1943 is described, including his assumptions of three soil zones and equations for calculating ultimate bearing capacity. The effects of foundation shape, inclined loads, soil type (clay vs. sand), and water table are explained. Settlement analysis is also important to determine allowable bearing capacity. An example problem demonstrates calculating the net allowable bearing capacity of a footing in clay.
This document discusses liquefaction, a phenomenon where soil loses strength and behaves like liquid during earthquakes. It defines liquefaction as when a mass of soil loses shear resistance and flows like a liquid under loading. The document explores causes of liquefaction like high pore water pressure reducing effective stress. It describes common effects like sand boils, lateral spreads, loss of bearing capacity. The document then outlines various liquefaction mitigation techniques including soil improvement methods like dewatering, stone columns, densification. It notes the selection of mitigation method depends on site conditions and structure. Deep foundations can also help liquefy resistant structures.
This document summarizes various physical soil improvement techniques including grouting, soil cement, heating, and freezing. Grouting involves injecting adhesives into soil to fill voids and increase strength. Types of grouting include penetration, compaction, and jet grouting. Soil cement mixes cement with soil to increase strength, stiffness, and durability. Heating soil to 300-1000°C changes its properties, making it harder. Freezing soil by refrigeration causes water to expand and bond particles, temporarily increasing strength for excavation support. The document provides details on each technique's process and applications.
This document discusses settlement of structures. It defines settlement as the vertical downward movement of a structure resulting from deformation of the supporting soil. Settlement includes three components: immediate/elastic settlement occurring within 7 days; primary consolidation settlement over time as pore water is expelled from saturated soils; and secondary compression of the soil skeleton. Differential settlement occurs when different parts of a structure settle by different amounts, potentially causing tilting. Common causes of settlement include excessive structural loads, weak soil compaction, changing groundwater levels, transpiration by plants, earthquakes, and drainage issues. Foundations must be designed to support dead loads, live loads, wind loads, and seismic loads without exceeding the soil's safe bearing capacity.
Stone columns are a versatile ground improvement technique used since the 1950s. They involve compacting coarse aggregate in columns in the ground to reinforce, densify and drain weak soils. Stone columns can improve bearing capacity, stability, reduce settlements and mitigate liquefaction. They work by transferring loads around them to stiffer columns, accelerating consolidation. Installation methods include ramming and vibro-replacement. Case studies show stone column embankments experience less settlement than untreated ground. In summary, stone columns are an effective ground improvement technique to strengthen weak soils.
1) Soil testing was conducted for a construction project including boreholes up to 10m depth, standard penetration tests, and direct shear tests.
2) Five boreholes were drilled using rotary methods, with standard penetration tests performed every 1m to assess soil strength. No groundwater was found up to 10m.
3) Laboratory tests on soil samples included moisture content, specific gravity, dry density, Atterberg limits, proctor, and direct shear tests to determine soil properties and bearing capacity for foundation design.
This document provides a method statement for exterior and interior emulsion paint work for the Cai Mep International Container Terminal project. It outlines the purpose, scope of work, reference technical specifications, work procedures, quality control measures, and safety controls. The work procedures describe the surface preparation, application of skimcoat and paint layers, thickness checks, and completion. Quality control includes an inspection and testing plan for deliveries and layer thicknesses. Safety controls focus on education, hazard prevention, and signage.
1. Load-settlement curves for footings on dense sand or stiff clay show a pronounced peak and failure occurs at very small strains, with sudden sinking or tilting and surface heaving of adjoining soil.
2. For medium sand or clay, failure starts at a localized spot and migrates outward gradually, with large vertical strains and small lateral strains. Failure planes are not clearly defined.
3. Failure zones for footings on slopes do not extend above the horizontal plane through the base, and failure occurs when downward and upward pressures are equal.
Hand scaling and mechanical scaling are commonly used stabilization methods to remove loose rock from slopes. Scaling is effective for 2-10 years as a temporary measure. Trim blasting can also be used to remove larger sections of rock too big for scaling. Reinforcement systems work to strengthen slopes internally by increasing resistance along fractures, while external systems protect from erosion. The most effective stabilization strategies alter slope geometry or add reinforcement or drainage systems.
The document discusses various ground improvement techniques including removal and replacement, in-situ densification methods like dynamic compaction, preloading, use of vertical drains and stone columns. It provides details on specific in-situ densification methods like vibro-float compaction using a vibrating probe, dynamic compaction using heavy weights, and explosive compaction using detonated charges. The document also summarizes advantages and limitations of preloading using surcharge fills and uses of vertical drains and geosynthetics to accelerate consolidation.
This document discusses rehabilitation and retrofitting of structures to improve their resistance to earthquakes. It notes that earthquakes themselves do not cause deaths but collapsed buildings do. It then discusses causes of building failures in developing countries during earthquakes. The document outlines several past damaging earthquakes and their impacts. It discusses common causes of failure of masonry and reinforced concrete buildings during earthquakes. Finally, it describes various rehabilitation and retrofitting methods that can be used to strengthen existing structures, such as adding reinforcement, jacketing, and seismic belts.
Strength and durability of concrete - Repair and rehabilitation of structures...Shanmugasundaram N
Quality assurance for concrete – Strength, Durability and Thermal properties, of concrete - Cracks, different types, causes – Effects due to climate, temperature, Sustained elevated temperature, Corrosion - Effects of cover thickness.
Class notes of Geotechnical Engineering course I used to teach at UET Lahore. Feel free to download the slide show.
Anyone looking to modify these files and use them for their own teaching purposes can contact me directly to get hold of editable version.
The document summarizes the plate load test, which determines the ultimate bearing capacity and settlement of soil under a given load. The test involves setting up a steel plate on the soil surface and applying a total load that is divided by the plate area to determine bearing capacity. Testing can be done via gravity or truss methods. Results are interpreted, but the test only reflects soil characteristics to twice the plate depth and doesn't indicate long-term settlements, particularly for cohesive soils. Values may also be conservative for large foundations in dense sands.
목차
중국 철강 시장
Big Picture
Bao Steel 과 Wuhan Steel의 합병
중국 거시 지표 개선? 부동산 시장의 회복?
철강 및 철광석 운송 수요
중국 철강 생산 및 수출
수입산 철광석의 가격 경쟁력과 중국내 점유율 증
운임 전망
브라질 철광석 수출 수요 증가
케이프 사이즈 공급 감소
Este documento establece los requisitos técnicos y documentales para la adquisición de sistemas de control supervisorio y adquisición de datos (SCADA) para ductos de Petróleos Mexicanos. Presenta definiciones clave, secciones sobre diseño del sistema SCADA, pruebas, documentación y responsabilidades. Incluye anexos con especificaciones técnicas para componentes de hardware y software del sistema SCADA, así como para entrenamiento. Fue aprobado por el Comité de Normalización de Petróleos Mexicanos para guiar la implementación de tecn
This document discusses flexural strength testing of materials. Flexural strength refers to a material's ability to resist deformation when bent or flexed. The flexural strength test involves placing a specimen on supports and applying a load at the center or at third points until failure. The flexural strength or modulus of rupture is calculated based on the maximum load at failure, and the dimensions and span of the specimen. Proper apparatus, loading rates, and procedures are required to accurately determine the flexural strength. Test results should report key details like specimen information, loading conditions, and failure mode.
This document outlines test methods for determining the magnitude and rate of consolidation of soils under controlled-stress loading. There are two alternative test methods:
Method A involves constant 24-hour load increments and time-deformation readings on a minimum of two increments. Method B requires time-deformation readings on all increments and successive increments are applied after 100% primary consolidation or at constant time increments as in Method A.
The test determines the relationship between effective stress and void ratio/strain of a laterally restrained soil specimen under axial drainage and incremental loading. Test results are used to estimate settlement magnitudes and rates, but can be affected by sample disturbance so care must be taken in sample selection and preparation. Load increments and durations
For full course visit our website
https://www.machenlink.com/course/foundation-engineering/
Description
Wash boring is a fast and simple method for advancing holes in all types of soils.
Boulders and rock cannot be penetrated by this method.
The method consists in first driving a casing through which a hollow drill rod with a sharp chisel or chopping bit at the lower end is inserted.
Water is forced under pressure through the drill rod which is alternately raised and dropped and also rotated.
The resulting chopping and jetting action of the bit and water disintegrate the soil.
The cutting is forced up to the ground surface in the form of soil − water slurry through the annular space between the drill rod and the casing.
The change of soil stratification could be guessed from the rate of progress and the colour of wash water.
The samples recovered from the wash water are almost valueless for interpreting the correct geotechnical properties of soil.
For full course visit our website :
https://www.machenlink.com/course/foundation-engineering/
Follow #MachenLink
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/machenLink/
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/machenlink/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MachenLink
1. Plate load tests are conducted to determine the ultimate bearing capacity of soil and settlement under a given load by applying loads to circular or square steel plates embedded in an excavated pit.
2. The test setup involves excavating a pit below the depth of the proposed foundation, placing the test plate with a central hole at the bottom, and applying load using a hydraulic jack while measuring settlement.
3. The results provide the subgrade modulus, ultimate bearing capacity divided by a safety factor to determine the safe bearing capacity, and insight into foundation behavior and allowable settlement for design.
This document discusses bearing capacity of shallow foundations. It defines bearing capacity as the ability of soil to safely carry pressure without shear failure. Terzaghi's bearing capacity theory from 1943 is described, including his assumptions of three soil zones and equations for calculating ultimate bearing capacity. The effects of foundation shape, inclined loads, soil type (clay vs. sand), and water table are explained. Settlement analysis is also important to determine allowable bearing capacity. An example problem demonstrates calculating the net allowable bearing capacity of a footing in clay.
This document discusses liquefaction, a phenomenon where soil loses strength and behaves like liquid during earthquakes. It defines liquefaction as when a mass of soil loses shear resistance and flows like a liquid under loading. The document explores causes of liquefaction like high pore water pressure reducing effective stress. It describes common effects like sand boils, lateral spreads, loss of bearing capacity. The document then outlines various liquefaction mitigation techniques including soil improvement methods like dewatering, stone columns, densification. It notes the selection of mitigation method depends on site conditions and structure. Deep foundations can also help liquefy resistant structures.
This document summarizes various physical soil improvement techniques including grouting, soil cement, heating, and freezing. Grouting involves injecting adhesives into soil to fill voids and increase strength. Types of grouting include penetration, compaction, and jet grouting. Soil cement mixes cement with soil to increase strength, stiffness, and durability. Heating soil to 300-1000°C changes its properties, making it harder. Freezing soil by refrigeration causes water to expand and bond particles, temporarily increasing strength for excavation support. The document provides details on each technique's process and applications.
This document discusses settlement of structures. It defines settlement as the vertical downward movement of a structure resulting from deformation of the supporting soil. Settlement includes three components: immediate/elastic settlement occurring within 7 days; primary consolidation settlement over time as pore water is expelled from saturated soils; and secondary compression of the soil skeleton. Differential settlement occurs when different parts of a structure settle by different amounts, potentially causing tilting. Common causes of settlement include excessive structural loads, weak soil compaction, changing groundwater levels, transpiration by plants, earthquakes, and drainage issues. Foundations must be designed to support dead loads, live loads, wind loads, and seismic loads without exceeding the soil's safe bearing capacity.
Stone columns are a versatile ground improvement technique used since the 1950s. They involve compacting coarse aggregate in columns in the ground to reinforce, densify and drain weak soils. Stone columns can improve bearing capacity, stability, reduce settlements and mitigate liquefaction. They work by transferring loads around them to stiffer columns, accelerating consolidation. Installation methods include ramming and vibro-replacement. Case studies show stone column embankments experience less settlement than untreated ground. In summary, stone columns are an effective ground improvement technique to strengthen weak soils.
1) Soil testing was conducted for a construction project including boreholes up to 10m depth, standard penetration tests, and direct shear tests.
2) Five boreholes were drilled using rotary methods, with standard penetration tests performed every 1m to assess soil strength. No groundwater was found up to 10m.
3) Laboratory tests on soil samples included moisture content, specific gravity, dry density, Atterberg limits, proctor, and direct shear tests to determine soil properties and bearing capacity for foundation design.
This document provides a method statement for exterior and interior emulsion paint work for the Cai Mep International Container Terminal project. It outlines the purpose, scope of work, reference technical specifications, work procedures, quality control measures, and safety controls. The work procedures describe the surface preparation, application of skimcoat and paint layers, thickness checks, and completion. Quality control includes an inspection and testing plan for deliveries and layer thicknesses. Safety controls focus on education, hazard prevention, and signage.
1. Load-settlement curves for footings on dense sand or stiff clay show a pronounced peak and failure occurs at very small strains, with sudden sinking or tilting and surface heaving of adjoining soil.
2. For medium sand or clay, failure starts at a localized spot and migrates outward gradually, with large vertical strains and small lateral strains. Failure planes are not clearly defined.
3. Failure zones for footings on slopes do not extend above the horizontal plane through the base, and failure occurs when downward and upward pressures are equal.
Hand scaling and mechanical scaling are commonly used stabilization methods to remove loose rock from slopes. Scaling is effective for 2-10 years as a temporary measure. Trim blasting can also be used to remove larger sections of rock too big for scaling. Reinforcement systems work to strengthen slopes internally by increasing resistance along fractures, while external systems protect from erosion. The most effective stabilization strategies alter slope geometry or add reinforcement or drainage systems.
The document discusses various ground improvement techniques including removal and replacement, in-situ densification methods like dynamic compaction, preloading, use of vertical drains and stone columns. It provides details on specific in-situ densification methods like vibro-float compaction using a vibrating probe, dynamic compaction using heavy weights, and explosive compaction using detonated charges. The document also summarizes advantages and limitations of preloading using surcharge fills and uses of vertical drains and geosynthetics to accelerate consolidation.
This document discusses rehabilitation and retrofitting of structures to improve their resistance to earthquakes. It notes that earthquakes themselves do not cause deaths but collapsed buildings do. It then discusses causes of building failures in developing countries during earthquakes. The document outlines several past damaging earthquakes and their impacts. It discusses common causes of failure of masonry and reinforced concrete buildings during earthquakes. Finally, it describes various rehabilitation and retrofitting methods that can be used to strengthen existing structures, such as adding reinforcement, jacketing, and seismic belts.
Strength and durability of concrete - Repair and rehabilitation of structures...Shanmugasundaram N
Quality assurance for concrete – Strength, Durability and Thermal properties, of concrete - Cracks, different types, causes – Effects due to climate, temperature, Sustained elevated temperature, Corrosion - Effects of cover thickness.
Class notes of Geotechnical Engineering course I used to teach at UET Lahore. Feel free to download the slide show.
Anyone looking to modify these files and use them for their own teaching purposes can contact me directly to get hold of editable version.
The document summarizes the plate load test, which determines the ultimate bearing capacity and settlement of soil under a given load. The test involves setting up a steel plate on the soil surface and applying a total load that is divided by the plate area to determine bearing capacity. Testing can be done via gravity or truss methods. Results are interpreted, but the test only reflects soil characteristics to twice the plate depth and doesn't indicate long-term settlements, particularly for cohesive soils. Values may also be conservative for large foundations in dense sands.
목차
중국 철강 시장
Big Picture
Bao Steel 과 Wuhan Steel의 합병
중국 거시 지표 개선? 부동산 시장의 회복?
철강 및 철광석 운송 수요
중국 철강 생산 및 수출
수입산 철광석의 가격 경쟁력과 중국내 점유율 증
운임 전망
브라질 철광석 수출 수요 증가
케이프 사이즈 공급 감소
Este documento establece los requisitos técnicos y documentales para la adquisición de sistemas de control supervisorio y adquisición de datos (SCADA) para ductos de Petróleos Mexicanos. Presenta definiciones clave, secciones sobre diseño del sistema SCADA, pruebas, documentación y responsabilidades. Incluye anexos con especificaciones técnicas para componentes de hardware y software del sistema SCADA, así como para entrenamiento. Fue aprobado por el Comité de Normalización de Petróleos Mexicanos para guiar la implementación de tecn
A Basic With A Twist Dress
A Great Opera-tunity Dress
A Kiss On The Chic Dress
A Midsummers Night Short
A Real Romantic Romper
A Splash Of Honey Bohemian Dress
A Touch Of Comfort Dress
Across The World Bra
Adjustable Strap Cami
Chocolove Xoxox Cherry In Dark Chocolate BarEl Speak
Chocolove XOXOX Cherry In Dark Chocolate Bar - 3.2 oz Pack of 12
Chocolove XOXOX Dark Chocolate With Almond & Sea Salt Bar 3.2 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove Premium Chocolate Bars Raspberries in Dark Chocolate 3.2 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove Premium Chocolate Bars Dark Ginger 3.2 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove Premium Chocolate Bars Dark Extra Strong 3.2 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove Premium Chocolate Bars Cherries & Almonds in Dark Chocolate 3.2 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove Premium Chocolate Bars Belgian Chocolate Strong Dark 3.2 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove XOXOX Coffee Crunch in Dark Chocolate 3.2 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove XOXOX Toffee and Almonds in Milk Chocolate 3.2 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove XOXOX Chilies and Cherries in Dark Chocolate 3.2 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove Pure Milk Chocolate Mini Bar 1.3 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove Orange And Dark Chocolate Mini Bar 1.3 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove Almond and Seasalt in Dark Chocolate Mini Bar 1.3 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove Raspberry Dark Chocolate Mini Bar 1.3 Oz Pack of 12
Chocolove XOXOX Peppermint Dark Chocolate 3.2 Oz Pack of 12
This document provides information and sale prices for various food and drink products available in multipacks, including 5-hour ENERGY drinks, 7 Up sodas, A&W sodas, Acqua Panna water, ACT II popcorn, and Ag Standard smoked almonds. Details are given for each product such as flavors, package sizes, and number of items per multipack.
Scarf Introduction Catalogue--SILK SHOWINGRobin Lee
The document is a catalogue from Hangzhou Silk Showing Co., Ltd that describes their scarf products. They offer square and oblong silk scarves in various sizes that can be customized with fabric, colors, and hemming. They also produce wool, cashmere, and brushed silk scarves. The company provides digital printing patterns and production of scarves based on customer demands and specifications.
El documento describe la arquitectura islámica, incluyendo la mezquita como el edificio más representativo. La mezquita típica tiene un patio central con fuente para abluciones, un minarete para llamar a la oración, y una gran sala de oración orientada hacia La Meca, con un nicho (mihrab) que simboliza la presencia del profeta. La decoración interior suele ser muy elaborada con motivos geométricos y caligráficos, en contraste con la austeridad exterior. Otras formas arquitectónic
Mage Titans USA 2016 - Kimberely Thomas - Adopting Scrum and Agile for Develo...Stacey Whitney
Overview of Scrum practices and a real example of how we use Agile at the Expert Consulting Group, Magento. How adopting these practices can make your development of Magento projects successful. Tips on using tools like Jira, github, and Magento Cloud for continuous deployment.
Mage Titans USA 2016 - Brendan Falkowski Designing the B2B ExperienceStacey Whitney
I spent the last four years advocating for responsive design as a scalable strategy to beat consumer’s expectations in a multi-device world. The B2C world shifted dramatically from designing for a screen to designing for users, which put tremendous pressure on B2B businesses to keep pace.
My last two years were focused on the B2B space and extending the considerations of RWD to customers that behave differently than a consumer but have the same critical eye.
This presentation details my thought process designing the user experience and services for the B2B customer and what it really takes to beat the curve.
Private Highlights of Kauaâ -i Tour and Other Amazing AdventuresEl Speak
360 Chicago
Aquarium of the Bay
Big Apple Helicopter Tour of NYC - 15 minutes
Bryce & Zion Canyon Tour
Celebrity Helicopter Tour
Emperor Nortonâ??s San Francisco History Tour
Fern Grotto River Cruise
Golden Gate Seaplane Tour
Grand Canyon North Rim Heli Tour
Grand Miami Heli Tour
Helicopter 1-on-1 Flying Lesson
High Roller
Na Pali Rafting Day Expedition
Private Active Volcano Tour
Private Highlights of Kauaâ??i Tour
Private House of the Sun Tour
Private Island of Hawai'i Hiking Tour
Private O'ahu Island Tour
Private Road to Hana Tour
Private Waimea Canyon Tour
Rockefeller Center Tour
Savors Of The Strip
Ski Boat Adventure
Sky Deck Chicago
Star Class Snorkel, Sail & BBQ
Sunrise Hot Air Balloon Adventure
The Mob Museum
Wakeboard/Tubing Adventure
Yosemite & Giant Sequoias Experience
Yosemite Hiking Adventure Tour
Bulk Commodity Price Index® is an assessment of the average price of the 12 major bulk materials,
taking the prices on January 2 2015 at 1,000 pts.
The index value is calculated as the average of the index for each commodities
multiplied by the corresponding weights derived from seaborne bulk trade volume in 2015
www.JinreSearch.com
지난 10년간 연간 약 5%의 고도 성장을 해 왔던 건화물 해상 물동량은 지난해 2009년 이후 처음으로 마이너스 성장(-0.1%)을 기록하였으며 금년에도 2015년과 대체로 비슷한 수준의 물동량을 유지할 것으로 전망되고 있음
그러나 저조한 시황이 지속되면서 해체량 증가와 신조 주문량 감소로 공급 조절이 이루어지고 있어 장기적 운임 회복의 기초 될 것으로 기대됨. 단, 단기적으로는 여전히 많은 주문 잔량으로 인해 1~2%의 선복 증가 지속 전망.
회복의 단초
§ 높은 신조 인도 지연 및 계약 취소
§ 신규 계약 부재 / 조선소 파산
§ 감속 운항을 통한 가용 선복 감축
여전한 암초
§ 해운 시장 참여자들, 조직화가 어려운 다양한 선주들로 구성 - 공통된 산업 구조 조정 정책 실행 난항
§ 여전히 많은 신조 주문량 / 정부 보조금으로 연명하고 있는 조선소들
§ 저유가 지속
Seaborne dry bulk trade declined 0.1% in 2015 largely due to a 6% drop in coal trade and is unlikely to show any significant recovery in the medium term. However, record levels of demolition and minimal new orders have given some hope for fundamental recovery, even though fleet supply is expected to increase in the near term because of the existing orderbook.
Support for recovery
High slippage and cancellation of contracts
Absence of new orders / Shipyard defaulting
Tonnage adjustment through slow-steaming
Difficulties
Highly fragmented ownership across many geographical regions
Massive remaining orderbook / Government backed Shipyards
Low fuel oil cost
[탱커선 공급 리뷰] – 유가? 공급 과잉? 뭣이 중헌디?!
수년간 증감을 거듭하였던 원유 운송 수요는 저유가로 인해 2015년부터 연간 약 3% 수준으로 수요가 회복되면서 올해에는 2007년의 호황기 수준의 운송량으로 회복될 것으로 예상되고 있음
그러나 운임 호황이 지속되면서 해체 감소와 신조 주문량 증가로 금년부터 연간 5~6%의 선복 증가율이 예상되고 있어 과잉 공급에 따른 운임 하락 리스크가 크게 우려되고 있음.
여전한 호재
· 저유가 지속
· 지상 저장 탱커 부족
· 트레이드 패턴 변화에 따른 원거리 운송 증가
운임 하락 리스크 요인
§ 많은 신조 주문량 / 드라이 및 컨테이너 섹터 불황에 따른 탱커 주문량 집중
§ 유가 상승에 따른 해상 저장 탱커 선박 재가동 가능성
Shipping supply chartpack 2016 Sample: Container, Tanker, Dry BulkDaejin Lee
In the report, you can find charts covering various statistics on fleet supply.
They are regularly updated (Monthly/quarterly) and specific sector reports are published separately.
Sample charts include below: -
1.Container: Delivery, Scrap, Orderbook and Outlook
2.Tanker: Delivery, Scrap, Orderbook and Outlook
3.Dry Bulker: Cape PMX SMX HSZ Delivery, Scrap, Orderbook and Outlook
[Compliance Notice]
This report has been produced for general information. Whilst care has been taken in the production of this report, no liability or responsibility can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein.
6월에 발표한 선박 공급 레포트를 현재 보유하고 있는 데이터로 최대한 업데이트 하였습니다.
건화물선은 선형별로 최대한 자세히 다루어 놓았습니다만 6월 자료 그대로인 경우가 많으니 감안하시기 바랍니다.
최근 선박 해체 시장은 컨선이 주도 하고 있고 신조시장은 미미하지만 탱커가 주도하고 있습니다.
결국 전체 해운 시장을 예측하기 위해서는 세가지 주요 선형의 현황을 다 파악하고 있어야 하는 것 같습니다.
현재 공급 상황으로는 가장 먼저 공급 조절이 일어난 건화물선이 향후 시황 상승 기회가 높은 것으로 보입니다.
컨선은 여전히 인도 예정 선박량이 많으나 상당히 많은 Slippage와 Scrap이 진행되고 있는 것은 긍정적으로 평가됩니다.
탱커선은 운임 시장이 변동성이 크지만 여전히 양호한 상황으로 선박 공급과잉에 따른 하락 리스크가 여전히 가장 큰 것으로 보입니다.
감사합니다.
In the report, you can find charts covering from Dry Bulk Freight Rate(Time Charter Rate) to Freight Derivatives(FFA) trends
---
The Baltic Exchange Dry Index climbed by 5% over the course of the month in spite of a sharp drop in Capesize earnings during the latter part of the month.
While the other two smaller vessel sizes were almost unchanged from a month ago, Panamax has been the strongest performer of the four main Baltic index classes, with the average earning rising by $1,166/day to $6,596/day. As I have predicted in earlier report ‘Coal Trade Market’, increased coal movements have supported panamax freight rate.
Interestingly seasonal strength in US grain season, together with strong commodity prices, have indeed raised physical earnings but still failed to translate into the paper market. Although nearby prices are being driven by short-term seasonal trend, the price for deferred contracts (Cal 2017-19) have not changed much from a month ago. It seems that market judges the current strength would be temporary.
Do you agree with the consensus? It is true that if the spot market is really reflecting a supply-demand balance, then it is future prices which will have to catch up..
10월 BDI지수 평균은 월 후반 케이프 운임의 가파른 하락에도 전월 대비 5%상승 하였습니다.
파나막스 선형은 나머지 수프라 핸디 선형의 월 평균 운임이 거의 변동 없었던 것에 반해 가장 큰 상승세를 보였습니다.
제가 KMI에서 발표한 ‘석탄운송시장’에서 전망한 바대로 파나막스 운임은 미국 그레인 시즌과 더불어 석탄 운송량 증가의 해택을 본 것으로 파악됩니다.
현재 원자재 가격 강세와 계절적 수요가 현물 시장에 잘 나타나고 있는 것으로 보입니다만 재밌는 것은 여전히 FFA원월물 시장은 큰 변동이 없었습니다.
아마도 시장 참여자들이 여전히 현재 스팟 시장을 계절적, 일시적 상승으로 보고 있기 때문으로 보입니다.
분명 현재의 수급 상황이 반영된 것이 현물 운임 시장이기에 선물 운임 시장 역시 결국 이에 수렴되어야 하겠지만
개인적으로 여전히 배는 참 많아 보이며 내년 초 시장 조정은 피하기 어려워 보입니다.
‘Freight Market' 에서는 월간 단위 선형 별(Cape, PMX, SMX, HSZ), 수역 별(태평양/대서양/FH/BH) 운임과 운임 선물 시장(FFA)의 트랜드를 알 수 있습니다.
Shipping market chartpack 2016 : commodity demand and fleet supply, sampleDaejin Lee
In the report, you can find charts covering various statistics on commodity trade demand and fleet supply.
They are regularly updated (Monthly/quarterly) and specific commodity reports are published separately. To discuss any individual requirements please contact anytime.
Sample charts include below: -
1. BCPI : an assessment of the average price of the 12 major bulk materials
2. Freight Market : covering from Dry Bulk Freight Rate to Freight Derivatives(FFA) trends
3. Commodity demand : iron ore, coal, grain, minor bulk, oil, etc
4. Vessel Supply: Statistics on Vessel Delivery and Scrap
5. Fleet AIS Position : Statistics on real time ship tracking data
[Compliance Notice]
This report has been produced for general information. Whilst care has been taken in the production of this report, no liability or responsibility can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein.
Shipping Supply Analysis : planting the seeds of recoveryDaejin Lee
Seaborne dry bulk trade declined 0.1% in 2015 largely due to a 6% drop in coal trade and is unlikely to show any significant recovery in the medium term. However, record levels of demolition and minimal new orders have given some hope for fundamental recovery, though fleet supply is expected to increase in the near term because of the existing orderbook.
Support for recovery
High slippage and cancellation of contracts
Absence of new orders / Shipyard defaulting
Tonnage adjustment through slow-steaming
Difficulties
Highly fragmented ownership across many geographical regions
Massive remaining orderbook / Government backed Shipyards
Low fuel oil cost
Shipping Supply Analysis : planting the seeds of recovery
석탄 운송 시장 : 석탄의 시대는 이대로 저무는 걸까
1. 석탄 운송 시장
- 석탄의 시대는 이대로 저무는 걸까?
2016. 10. updated
[Compliance Notice]
본 자료에 수록된 내용은 당사에서 수집한 자료 및 정보를 기초로 작성된 것이나 당사가 그 자료 및 정보의 정확성이나 안정성을 보장할 수는
없으므로 어떠한 경우에도 본 자료는 투자의 결과에 대한 법적 책임 소재에 대한 증빙 자료로 사용될 수 없습니다.
본 자료에 첨부된 모든 자료는 당사의 저작물로서 당사의 동의 없이 어떤 형태로든 복제, 배포, 전송, 변형할 수 없습니다
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
2. Presentation structure
1. 에너지 믹스
What drives energy demand?
World’s changing energy needs
2. 석탄 운송 시장의 이해
Rank of coal
World coal production & consumption
World coal trade
3. 석탄의 시대는 이대로 저무는 걸까?
Coal demand from China, India & Korea
Freight Forecast
2
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
3. Chapter 1
3
에너지 믹스
World’s changing energy needs
What drives energy demand?
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
4. Contribution to Global GDP growth
4
세계 인구는 향후 20년 동안 약 15 억명 증가할 것으로 예상됨
같은 기간 GDP는 2배 증가하며 그 증가분의 1/5은 인구 절대 증가량에 기인하고 나머
지 4/5는 도시화 등 생산성 증대에 따라 증가할 것으로 전망됨
※ Source: BP Energy Outlook Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
5. Energy Consumption Outlook by fuel
5
중국의 에너지 소비 성장을 이끌어 온 석탄은 중국의 경제 둔화와 환경오염 이슈로 성장세
가 둔화되는 반면 미국 셰일 가스 생산량 증가와 뉴파나마 운하 개통에 따른 LNG수송량 증
가로 청정 에너지인 천연 가스가 석탄을 대체하며 소비 증가 속도가 빨라질 것으로 전망됨
재생 에너지 역시 기술 발전에 따른 생산 비용 감소로 빠른 성장세를 보일 것으로 예상됨
※ Source: BP Energy Outlook
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Milliontonnesofoilequivalent
Coal Natural Gas Oil
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Renewables Hydro Nuclear
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
6. Energy Consumption growth by Region
6
지난 20년간 중국이 전세계 에너지 증가분의 절반을 차지하였으나 향후 20년 동안은
30%수준으로 둔화 될 것으로 예상되며 인도는 지난 20년간 총 증가분의 10%에 해당
하였으나 향후 20년간은 20%를 차지하며 중국 감소분을 만회할 것으로 전망됨
※ Source: BP Energy Outlook
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Milliontonnesofoilequivalent
India
China
US
FSU
Europe
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Milliontonnesofoilequivalent
Europe
FSU
US
China
India
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
7. Energy Production Cost - Money talks
7
전력 생산 단가 저렴하고 매장량이 많아 자원 안보 측면에서도 뛰어난 석탄이 세계 전력 생
산의 40%를 담당하고 있음. 수력(15%)은 입지 제약이 있고 원자력(15%)은 안전 규제가 많음
장기적으로 신재생 에너지는 기술적 비용적 제약이 아직은 크나 빠르게 개선 되고 있음
※ Source: Goldman Sachs
Energy Source Cost per Kilowatt-hour (kWh) range
Hydro 1-4 cents per kWh
Coal 2-6 cents per kWh
Nuclear 2-6 cents per kWh
Wind 3-7 cents per kWh
Natural gas 5.5-10 cents per kWh
Solar 12-35 cents per kWh (most expensive)
1-4 2-6 2-6 3-7
5.5-10
12-35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Hydro Coal Nuclear Wind Natural gas Solar
Cost per Kilowatt-hour(kWh)
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
8. World Energy consumption by fuel
8
세계 에너지 소비는 대부분 화석 연료를 통해 소화되고 있어 수력발전을 제외하면 재생 에
너지의 점유율은 여전히 매우 미미한 상황임
향후 GDP에 성장에 따라 에너지 수요도 같이 늘어난다고 가정 할 때 화석 연료의 지위는 확
고할 것으로 보임. 단 석탄 대신 천연 가스의 비중이 늘어나는 추세가 예상됨
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
US
Brazil
Total Europe & Eurasia
Total Middle East
Total Africa
China
India
Japan
South Korea
Total World
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Hydro
※ Source: BP Statistical ReviewContact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
9. Chapter 2
9
석탄 운송 시장의 이해
- Rank of coal
- World coal production
- World coal trade
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
10. Rank of Coal
석탄은 탄소 함유량과 발열량으로 구분하며 역청탄(bituminous)이 가장 많이 쓰임
10
종류 용도
가정연료용
제철코크스
가스발생로
발전연료용
가스발생로
발전연료용
발전연료용
Anthracite
Bituminous
Sub-Bituminous
Lignite
c
a
r
b
o
n
Coking
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
11. Coal Classification – ASTM 기준
11
※ Source: 한국광물자원공사
석탄의 분류
탄소량
(%)
휘발분
(%)
발열량
(kcal/kg)
비고
무
연
탄
순무연탄
Meta-Anthracite
98> 2이하 -
무연탄은 석탄 중 탄화가 가장 많이 진행된 것으로 생성 년대는 주로 고
생대 (약 2.3~3.5억년前) 이지만 중생대나 신생대에 생성된 탄도 있음.
고정탄소 86%이상, 휘발분 14%이하이며 견고하고 발열량은 시대와 생성
조건에 따라 4,000~7,000kcal/kg 정도로 차이가 큼. 휘발분이 적어 연소
시 매연발생은 적으나 착화가 어려워 미연탄소분이 발생하기 쉬움
점결성이 없어 코크스를 만들 수 없고 휘발분이 적어 건류시에도 타르가
없고 가스만 발생하기 때문에 주로 가정용 연탄 및 발전용으로 사용됨
무연탄
Anthracite
92-98 2-8 -
반무연탄
Semi-Anthracite
86-92 8-14 -
역
청
탄
저휘발 역청탄
Low Vol. Bit.
78-86 14-22 -
외관은 담흑색 또는 칠흑색이고 대부분 광택이 없으며, 일반적인 유연탄
이 이에 속하며, 석탄의 중요한 성질을 고루 가지고 있다. 전세계의 고체
연료 중 가장 많이 사용되고 사용범위도 넓음.
갈탄보다 더 오랜 기간동안 지하에 매몰, 탄화가 진행된 것으로 지질연대
로는 주로 중생대에 속하나 고생대 말기나 신생대 초기의 것도 있음
수분은 비교적 낮은 편이고 고정탄소 86% 이하, 휘발분 14% 이상, 발열
량은 6,400kcal/kg이상이며 산화성과 점결성이 있음.
중휘발
Med Vol. Bit.
69-78 22-31 -
고휘발(A-C)
High Vol. Bit.
69< 31이상
7,800 >
6,400 >
아
역
청
탄
아역청탄(A-C)
Subbituminous
4,600 >
희흑색으로 휘발분과 수분함량이 많으며, 갈탄과 역청탄의 중간정도의
탄화도를 가짐. 휘발분은 31%이상, 발열량 4,600~6,400kcal/kg 정도이고
점결성은 없거나 적으며 착화성이 좋고 연소성은 좋은 반면 대기중에 방
치하면 풍화(산화)되기 쉬움
갈
탄
갈탄(A)
Lignite A
3,500 >
갈탄은 이탄(peat)이 더욱 탄화된 것으로서 흑갈색을 띄는 것을 아탄이라
하고 흑색을 띄는 것을 흑갈탄이라고 함. 갈탄은 연료비가 1 이하이고 수
분이 많아 40%이상이며, 회분이 10~40%, 발열량은 4,600kcal/kg 이하,
휘발분은 50% 이상으로 높지만 CO2가 많아 연소시 화염의 온도는 낮다.
아탄은 수분, 회분이 많고 발열량이 낮으며 산화가 잘되는 결점이 있지만
점결성이 없고 착화가 잘되며 연소속도가 빨라 가정용 또는 소규모 공업
용으로 주로 사용된다.
갈탄(B)
Lignite B 3,500 <
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
12. Coal Production & Reserves
중국은 미국과 러시아에 이어 세계 3위의 석탄 매장량을 보유하고 있으나 생산량이 압
도적으로 많아 가채년수(Reserve to production ratio)는 30년 수준으로 알려짐
12
Coal Production Coal Reserve
0 100 200 300 400 500
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
US
Colombia
Russia
South Africa
Australia
China
India
Indonesia
(Years)
(Mt)
Anthracite and bituminus
Sub-bituminous and lignite
R/P ratio (可採年數)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
(Mt)
Colombia
Russian Federation
South Africa
Indonesia
US
Australia
India
China
※ Source: BP Statistical ReviewContact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
13. Coal Consumption outlook by region
지난 십 년간 선진국의 석탄 소비량 감소에도 불구하고 중국과 인도의 막대한 소비 증
가에 힘입어 석탄의 지위는 지속 강화됨
2015년 이후 중국의 소비 증가세는 둔화 됨에도 불구하고 인도와 동남 아시아 등 개발
도상국의 석탄 소비 증가세가 이어지며 석탄 소비 순증가 추세는 이어질 것으로 전망
13
※ Source: BP Energy outlook
14. Steam Coal Trade – Major Importers
중국은 2008년 연료탄 수입량이 급증하며 이후 최대 수입국이 되었으나, 2014년 환경
규제로 수입량이 크게 감소함에 따라 인도에 그 지위를 넘겨줌
향후 일본, 한국, 일본이 약 1억톤 수준의 비슷한 수입량을 보일 것으로 전망됨
14
China
Japan
Korea
India
0
50
100
150
200
250
(Mt)
China Steam Coal Japan Steam Coal
South Korea Steam Coal India Steam Coal
※ Source: SSY, HJS Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
15. Steam Coal Trade – Major Exporters
인도네시아는 2000년대 중반 이후 중국 특수를 누리며 폭발적인 수출 증가세를 보였
으나 2014년 부터 수출 라이센스 발급, 불법 광산 폐쇄, 자국 자원 보호 정책을 쓰면서
생산량 감소세를 보이고 있음
15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016e
3.7 5.8 11.8 13.9 19.9 25.9 29.2 34.1 39 45.7 47.4 55.8 61.5 75.7 91.1 111.9
161.9175.6 180
215.5
269.8
306326.7357.2 334 306.1300.2
49.5 54.5 58.3 57.6 59.4 62.1 63.6 73.6 83 79.2 87.1 88.1 99.9
105.1
106.3
111.5
114.2 113.7 126.1
139.6
142.1
148.2
171.2
188.1
200.9
201.6202.7
(Mt)
Colombia Steam Coal S. Africa Steam Coal
Others Steam Coal Russia Steam Coal
US Steam Coal Australia Steam Coal
Indonesia Steam Coal
※ Source: SSY, HJS Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
16. Coking Coal Trade – Major Importers
세계 최대 원료탄 수입국인 일본의 수입량은 꾸준히 유지하고 있음. 중국은 2008년 이
후 큰 폭으로 증가하며 2013년 일본에 근접하였으나 환경 규제 및 철강 산업 부진으로
인프라 투자 확대로 상승세를 지속하고 있는 인도에 뒤진 3위로 전락함
16
※ Source: SSY, HJS
China
Japan
Korea
India
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
(Mt)
China Coking Coal Japan Coking Coal
South Korea Coking Coal India Coking Coal
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
17. Coking Coal Trade – Major Exporter
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016e
57.1 65.7 67.9 74.1 71.8 74.7 76.9 83.7 83.6 92.4 99.7106.3104.3 111 116.2122.2 124
137.2 135 134.8
158.9
132.9
145.1
169.6
186.3 185.7 189
53.6
55
49.5 40.8 39.3
43.2 42.6
42.9 38.3 25.3
26.2 19.8
15.1
16.9
20.8
22 20.8
25.9 35.4
31.6
47.8
59.3
59
56.2
53.3
37.9 30.4
(Mt)
Russia Coking Coal US Coking Coal
Canada Coking Coal Australia Coking Coal
주요 원료탄 수출국 중 미국/캐나다의 점유율은 점차 줄어들고 있으며, 주요 수입처인
극동과의 지리적 이점을 살려 러시아와 호주의 점유율이 계속 높아지고 있음
17
※ Source: SSY, HJS Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
18. Coal Seaborne Trade – EC Australia to Fareast
동호주에서 생산되는 석탄은 원료탄 비중이 높아 한국 중국 일본 등 철강 산업이 발달
한 국가를 중심으로 케이프 파나막스 급 중/대형 선박을 통해 주로 운송됨
18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize
MDwt Aus to Fareast
Shipments
※ Source: Platts, HJS Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
19. Coal Seaborne Trade – Indonesia to India & Fareast
인도네시아의 석탄은 대부분 연료탄으로 화력발전이 발달한 인도와 동아시아로 주로
수송되며 인도의 경우 케이프 선형은 대형 항만 시설이 있는 인도 서안을 주로 이용하
는 반면 중소형 선형은 항만 제약이 크게 없어 동/서안으로 고루 입항하고 있음
19
※ Source: Platts, HJS
0
20
40
60
80
100
E.C.India W.C.India E.C.India W.C.India E.C.India W.C.India
Capesize Panamax Handymax
Mdwt
MillionDwt
Indo to India Shipments
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
20. Chapter 3
20
석탄의 시대는 이대로 저무는 걸까?
India : Production or imports?
China : Still needs coal but where from?
Korea: Coal? Call!
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
21. China and India Population
중국의 경우 강력한 산아 재한 정책으로 청/장년 경제 활동 인구수가 점점 줄어드는 항아리
형을 보이며 경제성장 속도 역시 둔화되고 있음
반면 인도는 수 십 년간 젊은 노동력이 지속 공급되는 피라미드 형태의 인구 구조를 보이고
있어 인도 경제의 잠재력을 높게 평가하는 주요 근거가 되고 있음
21
※ Source: DNB, CIA factbook Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
22. China’s GDP & Energy growth
지난 15년간 중국의 에너지 소비 증가율은 연간 GDP증가율과 비슷하게 성장하였으나 향후
GDP증가율의 절반에도 미치지 못할 것으로 전망됨. 이는 에너지 효율 증가 뿐 아니라 제조
업 중심에서 내수 및 서비스 중심으로 경제 구조가 변화함에 따라 에너지 소비 산업의 GDP
기여도가 감소할 것이기 때문임
22
※ Source: BP Energy outlook Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
23. China energy demand growth
중국의 연료 소비 구성은 경제 구조 변화와 환경 및 기후 개선 계획에 따라 석탄 의존도를
지속적으로 줄이고 천연 가스나 재생 에너지 중심으로 변화될 것으로 전망됨
23
※ Source: BP Energy outlook Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
24. World proposed coal-fired power generation capacity
24
※ Source: WRI, Cornerstone
China Power capacity Outlook
일각에서는 에너지 소비 구성에서 석탄의 비율은 분명 줄겠지만 총 에너지 사용량 및 생산
설비 자체의 증가에 따라 절대적인 석탄 소비량은 여전히 늘어날 것으로 예상하고 있음
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
25. China’s Energy Mix Change
25
2012-2015년 사이 석탄의 에너지 구성비율은 약 3%p감소하였으나 절대량은 소폭만 감소하
였음. 같은 기간 에너지 절대 소비 증가량은 오일과 수력발전이 가장 많이 증가하였으나 증
가율 기준으로는 핵에너지가 54%로 가장 높은 소비 증가율을 보였으며, 재생 에너지 46%,
수력발전23%, 천연가스 22%, 오일 10% 순으로 기록하였음.
Oil
18% Natural Gas
5%
Coal
67%
Nuclear
1%
Hydro
7%
Renewables
2%
2012
Oil
19%
Natural Gas
6%
Coal
64%
Nuclear
1%
Hydro
8%
Renewables
2%
2015
52
32
(5)
14
49
20
(30)
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
China Consumption by fuel
(Million tonnes oil equivalent)
2012
2015
Differnce(right)
※ Source: BP Energy outlook Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
26. China coal imports – long term
중국 정부의 석탄 제한 정책에 따라 2020년까지 약 5억톤의 자국 석탄 생산 설비를 감축하
기로 결정하였고 실제로 금년 7월까지 석탄 생산량은 전년비 10%감소한 19억톤을 기록함
이에 석탄 자국 소비 둔화에도 공급 조절에 따른 내수 가격 상승을 불러왔고 값싼 수입 석탄
수요가 오히려 증가하고 있음
26
※ Source: Bloomberg, HJS
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
(Mt)
China coal imports YoY
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
27. Domestic Coal production in China
중국은 금년 목표인 2억5천만톤 중 7월까지 9500만톤의 석탄 생산 설비를 감축하였으며 자
국 석탄 광산의 생산 가능 일수는 330일에서 274일로 감소함
이에 따라 금년 1-8월까지 석탄 생산량은 전년비 10%감소한 21.7억 톤을 기록함
27
※ Source: Bloomberg, HJS
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Production YoY%
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
28. Coal prices
중국 내수 석탄 가격과 호주산 석탄 수입 가격 차이가 커지면 커질수록 중국 석탄 수입량은
늘어나는 추세를 보여 왔음
최근 중국 국내산 석탄 가격이 생산량 감소 영향으로 가파르게 상승하고 있고 석탄 재고량
마저 부족한 상황으로 수입탄 수요가 견조하게 증가하고 있음
28
※ Source: Arrow, Bloomberg
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
'15.2 '15.5 '15.8 '15.11 '16.2 '16.5 '16.8
Steam Coal(FOB Newcastle)
($/ton)
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
29. China Raw Coal Output by province
29
중국 북부 내몽골 지방에 석탄 생산지가 집중되어 있어 중국 남부 지방 발전소나 제철
소들은 해상 수입으로 석탄을 조달하는 것이 더욱 효율적임.
※ Source: Mysteel Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
30. China coal imports by type
발전용 연료탄(steam) 역시 수요 둔화에도 수입량은 3월 이후 꾸준한 상승세를 보이고 있음
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
2014 2015 2016
백만
(Mt)
Anthracite Coking Coal Bituminous Steam Coal
Sub-bituminous Steam Coal Lignite Steam Coal (incl Lignite)
※ Source: Platts, HJS Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
31. Origin of Chinese Steam coal imports
발전용 연료탄 수입량은 인도네시아 등 근거리 국가 중심으로 증가하고 있으나 가격 상승세
가 지속되면 향후 미국, 콜롬비아 등 원거리 수입량도 늘어날 가능성이 있음
31
※ Source: Platts, HJS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
2014 2015 2016
(Mt)(Index 2014 Jan=100)
Others Indonesia Australia Steam Coal Transport Index Steam Coal Volume Index
Contact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
32. Origin of Chinese Coking coal imports
제철용 원료탄 수입량은 몽고와 러시아탄 중심으로 증가 추세를 보이는 가운데 호주산 석탄
수입량은 큰 변동성을 보이고 있음.
32
※ Source: Platts, HJS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
2014 2015 2016
(Mt)(Index 2014 Jan=100)
Russia & Mongolia etc North America Australia
Coking Coal Transport Index Coking Coal Volume Index
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33. India’s Power capacity
33
인도 정부는 젊고 풍부한 인구를 활용하여 중국을 이어 제조업 중심의 경제 번영을 계획하
고 있으며 이를 위해 에너지 인프라 구축에 총력을 기울이고 있음
※ Source: BP
Expansion of Indian Power grid Indian coal-fired power capacity vs. mine output
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34. India’s Energy Mix Change
34
인도는 경제 성장에 필요한 막대한 에너지 수요를 감당하기 위해 자국 매장량이 풍부하고
가격 경쟁력이 뛰어난 석탄을 활용하여 전력 생산량을 늘리고 있음
※ Source: BP, HJS
Oil
29%
Natural Gas
8%
Coal
55%
Nuclear
1%
Hydro
5%
Renewables
2%
2012
Oil
28%
Natural Gas
7%
Coal
58%
Nuclear
1%
Hydro
4%
Renewables
2%
2015
20
(1)
83
1
(2)
4
(50)
(20)
10
40
70
100
130
160
190
220
250
280
310
340
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
India Consumption by fuel
(Million tonnes oil equivalent)
2012
2015
Differnce(right)
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35. India Electricity Generation
몬순에 따른 수력 발전 증감에 따라 계절적 변화는 있으나 전력 생산량은 꾸준히 증가 중
35
※ Source: CEA, HJS
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1-14
4-14
7-14
10-14
1-15
4-15
7-15
10-15
1-16
4-16
Twh Hydro Thermal Nuclear Thermal YoY(RHS)
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36. India Coal Production
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1-14 7-14 1-15 7-15 1-16 7-16
(Mt)
Coal India Ltd Production YoY
Monsoon
인도 석탄 생산의 80%를 차지하는 Coal India의 생산 효율 증가로 2015/16 회계년도에는 전
년비 약 8.5% 증가한 5억 36백만톤의 생산량을 기록하였으며 2020년까지 2배 증가한 10억
톤을 생산하여 석탄 자급을 이루는 것을 목표하고 있음
36
※ Source: Coal India, HJS
Coal India produces 80% of total Indian Coal production
Monsoon
Monsoon
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37. Coal Stocks at Indian Power Stations
인도의 자국 석탄 생산량 증가와 석탄 소비 증가세 둔화에 따라 연초 한때 인도 화력 발전소
석탄 재고량은 사상 최고인 28일치(약 4천만톤)의 석탄이 쌓였음
37
※ Source: CEA, HJS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Coal Stocks at power stations Days' Supply
(Mt, Days)
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38. India Coal Imports – Long term trend
수년간 큰 폭의 증가세를 이어 오던 인도 석탄 수입량은 자국 생산량 증가에 따라 작년 하반
기 처음으로 전년 대비 감소세를 보임.
38
※ Source: SSY, HJS
-20%
30%
80%
130%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1q06 1q07 1q08 1q09 1q10 1q11 1q12 1q13 1q14 1q15 1q16
(Mt)
India Coking Coal Imports India Steam Coal Imports
Total Growth YoY Steam Growth YoY
Coking Growth YoY
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39. Coal Exports to India by type
인도의 연료탄 수입은 인도네시아와 남아프리카에서 공급되고 있으며 원료탄은 대부분 호
주에서 구매하고 있음
2015년 자국 생산량 증가에 따라 수입량이 전년비 감소하였으나 최근 점차 회복 되는 중
39
※ Source: Platts, SSY, HJS
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1-13
3-13
5-13
7-13
9-13
11-13
1-14
3-14
5-14
7-14
9-14
11-14
1-15
3-15
5-15
7-15
9-15
11-15
1-16
3-16
5-16
Mt
Australia Indonesia South Africa Others Steam YoY%
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40. Korea 7th Power supply plan (연말 정격용량 기준)
40
한국의 7차 전력 수급 기본 계획에 따르면 2020년 정격 용량 기준으로 수입탄(28%)
LNG(27%) 원자력(20%) 신재생(13%) 순으로 향후 5년간 신재생 에너지의 비중이 약 2배 증
가하나 가격 경쟁력과 안정성이 뛰어난 석탄의 에너지 생산 지위 역시 견고할 듯
※ Source: 7차 전력수급계획
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Power Capacity
2015
2020
원자력,
22%
수입탄,
27%
국내탄, 1%
LNG, 29%
석유, 4%
양수, 5%
신재생, 7% 집단 , 5%
2015
원자력,
20%
수입탄,
28%
국내탄, 1%
LNG, 27%
석유, 3%
양수, 4%
신재생,
13%
집단 , 6%
2020
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42. Korean Coal imports – Monthly by type
한국의 연료탄 수입량은 연초 미세먼지 이슈로 인하여 2분기 이후 수입량이 감소한 상황
원료탄의 경우 큰 변동 없는 꾸준한 추세를 보이고 있음
42
※ Source: Platts, HJS
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
(Mt) Steam Coal
2014 2015 2016
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
(Mt) Coking Coal
2014 2015 2016
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43. Korean Coal Imports - Origin
한국의 호주, 인도네시아, 러시아 등지에서 석탄을 수입하며 최근 러시아 탄의 수요가 증가
하였으며 호주산 석탄은 연료탄 비중이 높아 월간 수입량 변화가 상당히 큼
43
※ Source: Platts, HJS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2014 2015 2016
(Mt)
Australia Canada Indonesia Russia Others
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44. Korean Coal Imports - Volume & Tonne-mile demand
원거리 캐나다탄 수입량은 감소하고 근거리 러시아탄의 수입 비중이 늘면서 물동량 증가량
대비 실제 선박 운송 수요는 부진함
44
※ Source: Platts, HJS
70
100
130
160
190
(5)
(3)
(1)
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2014 2015 2016
(2014 Jan=100)(Mt)
Australia
Canada
Indonesia
Russia
Others
Volume
Transport
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45. Coal Trade & Panamax Earning
파나막스 선형의 태평양 왕복 운임은 중국의 석탄 수입량과 밀접하게 연관되어 움직임
2015년 중국의 석탄 수입량이 전년비 30%감소하면서 파나막스 운임도 하락을 거듭하였으나 최근
석탄 가격 상승과 함께 수입량이 증가하면서 운임 역시 회복세를 보임
45
Coal Trade
Freight
※ Source: Platts, HJS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1-14 3-14 5-14 7-14 9-14 11-14 1-15 3-15 5-15 7-15 9-15 11-15 1-16 3-16 5-16 7-16 9-16
CokingcoalIndex(2014Jan=100)
PanamaxEarning$/day
PMX Pacific Earning
Coking Coal Trade Index
Steam Coal Trade Index
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46. 파나막스 공급 전망 Panamax Supply Outlook
파나막스 섹터는 연비가 높은 대형 캄사르막스(80-84k)선형의 유행으로 2010-2013년까지
연평균 10%수준의 매우 높은 선복 증가율을 기록했으나 지난해부터 인도량 감소와 해체량
증가로 1%대로 성장율이 하락함. 현재 섹터 중 가장 저조한 수익을 보이고 있어 해체량이
더욱 증가할 것으로 예상 됨에 따라 당분간 증가율은 약 0~1%에 머물 것으로 전망됨
46
※ Source: Clarkson, HJS
7%
9%
4%
1%
8% 8% 8%
6% 6% 5%
12% 12% 12%
9%
4%
1%
0% 1%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
(10)
0
10
20
30
MilliondwtofVessels
PMX
PMX Deliveries PMX Demolition Orderbook Growth
Removal
Delivery
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47. 파나막스 운임 전망 Panamax Freight Forecasts
47
중국 국내 석탄 수요 부진에도 불구하고 자국 광산 생산량 감소로 값싼 수입 석탄 수요는 지
속적으로 늘어나고 있음. 특히 석탄 가격이 회복되고 있고 계절적 재고 확충 수요까지 겹쳐
단기적으로 견조한 석탄 수입 수요가 예상되고 있어 하반기 운임 상승이 예상됨
8,399
7,049
4,999
6,115
3,991
6,179
5882
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015 1H2016 2H2016
($/day)
Panamax
Panamax Earning & FFA Model Forecast
FFA & Model Forecast
※ Source: Baltic Exchange, HJSContact : Daejin Lee / daejin82@gmail.com / www.JinreSearch.com
48. Previous Reports : includes freight forecasts
(1) Bulk Supply : The Seeds of Recovery (Korean / English)
(2) Tanker Supply : Oil Prices and Oversupply (Korean)
(3) Coal Trade Market : The end of the coal era, soon or yet? (Korean / English)
(4) Iron Ore Trade Market : Chinese steel market (Korean)
(5) Understanding Bulk Shipping Market (Korean)
(6) Shipping Market Chartpack
(7) Shipping Supply Chartpack
We invite any comments and/or questions you may have. if you need bespoke
reports & analysis, we would love to meet specific client needs. To discuss any
individual requirements please contact below
Daejin Lee / Commodity Research / Shipping / FFA
Mob: +82-10-3462-5311
Email: daejin82@gmail.com
Thank you
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