22. 2050年
每5年新的藥
幫助人類延
長1年壽命
If anti-aging
therapies come
into play
around 2010
人類壽命
延長一倍
by the year 2050
people might
routinely reach the
ripe old age of 120.
工作到85歲
才能退休
資料來源: 大地雜誌,2006年第五期,
U.S. population will run to
440 million people, a
median age of 47, and
6.6 persons over 65 will
rely on 10 workers.
Tuljapurkar, Older Population Could Force Retirement Age to 85, Stanford University,
http://www.livescience.com/7045-older-population-force-retirement-age-85.html (Bjorn Carey, Feb. 21, 2006)
22
23. 2035年平均壽命達到140歲!
• The human life span will increase and that the ensuing societal changes
will be monumental.
– Once medicine becomes boldly proactive, then you're talking about
eliminating 70, 80 percent of diseases
– Replacing that organ would be much easier than it is today
• 美國人的平均壽命,每一百年延長一倍
19世紀初: 23歲
20世紀初: 47歲
20世紀末: 78歲
資料來源: 1. CNN在TIME週刊刊登一篇署名廣告「八代同堂不是夢」, 2006
2.「一百四十歲?長壽大論辯Life at 140? Longer life spans up for debate」
報導未來學作家James Canton, 《超限未來十大趨勢》
(The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World for the Next 5, 10, and 20 Years.)
CNN, Nov. 28, 2006. http://edition.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/11/27/long.life/
23
25. 1947年平均壽命為35歲,
2007年提高到72.5歲(男71歲,女74歲)
17歲
• 50萬~20萬年
前北京猿人
20 ~30歲
• 古希臘
33歲
• 中世紀英格蘭
48歲
• 20世紀初美國
65歲
• 1995, 聯合國
73歲
• 2025, World
Population
Data Sheet
Worldwide, the average life expectancy at birth
Period 2005-2010
Overall 67.88
Males 65.71
Females 70.14
Data source:
On 3 May 2011, the United Nations Department of Economic
and Social Affairs (UN DESA), Population Division,
released World Population Prospects, The 2010 Revision
25
http://www.finlea.org.tw/2-3new-1.asp?id=144
「2013台灣退休趨勢大調查」:退休準備意識高- 最晚25歲準備退休金最理想
財金教育協會「2013台灣退休趨勢大調查」:
退休準備意識高- 最晚25歲準備退休金最理想
行動力不足- 逾四成尚未準備
退休態度大不同- 女性準備多男性信心高
幾歲開始準備退休金最理想?面對退休生活,是期待還是害怕?
財金智慧教育推廣協會進行「2013台灣退休趨勢大調查」,發現國人對退休金準備的危機意識高,近四成認為最晚歲開始準備退休金最理想,但行動力卻不足,逾四成民眾尚未開始準備。
此外,不同性別、世代及職業對退休態度大不同,女性準備多、男性信心高;年輕人準備少,卻是想最早退休的一群人;軍公教、金融業受訪者普遍對退休準備信心滿滿。
社團法人中華民國財金智慧教育推廣協會(FINLEA, Financial Literacy and Education Association)為台灣第一個專職推廣基礎金融知識的非營利組織,為瞭解台灣退休趨勢,委由國立政治大學商學院民意與市場調查研究中心,針對全台年滿30至60歲且尚未退休的民眾進行退休態度觀念調查,調查時間為2013年9月23日至10月7日,全台有效樣本數1,069份,在95%信心水準下,抽樣誤差為3%。
財金智慧教育推廣協會理事長楊子江表示:「高齡趨勢下,國人的退休期間將越來越長,出現長壽風險,年紀越大越怕沒錢可用,加上少子化衝擊,無法依靠下一代養老,每個人都應該為自己退休後的生活做好準備,越早準備越輕鬆,25歲不嫌早,40歲也不嫌晚。及早開始準備退休金、規劃退休藍圖,能確保退休生活享有基本生活保障,還能進一步追求理想的生活品質,退休依舊能繼續追求人生的夢想。」
FINLEA「2013台灣退休趨勢大調查」發現,近四成受訪民眾認為最晚25歲準備退休金最理想,但僅一成實際在25歲前開始準備;已經開始準備退休金的民眾,平均從33歲開始,尚未準備的受訪者打算45歲才開始;退休後,近五成想遊山玩水、六成想和伴侶同住。
根據行政院主計處統計,2012年國人平均退休年齡為57.3歲,較七年前延後近2.5歲,根據這次FINLEA「2013台灣退休趨勢大調查」,國人打算61歲退休,較目前平均退休年齡延後4年(註一),隨高齡化趨勢,晚退休、或退而不休成趨勢。
此外,調查也發現,受訪者預估退休後每人每月生活費平均要NT$24,681元,較退休前增加一成五;近五成對退休前存好足夠的退休金缺乏信心,逾三成民眾對未來的退休生活感害怕,但已經開始準備退休金的民眾,對未來退休生活比較不感到恐慌。
FINLEA「2013台灣退休趨勢調查」十大重要發現:
一、平均打算61歲退休
l 越年輕越想早退休(註二)。
l 軍警公教、資訊業為打算最早退休的職業別,平均打算59歲退休。
二、退休後最想遊山玩水
l 近五成退休後想遊山玩水;其次為做義工,女性想做義工的比例是男性二倍多。
l 退休後58%受訪者想和伴侶同住,男性較女性更想和另一半住、被伴侶照顧(註三)。
三、平均想活到77.2歲,低於目前平均餘命(註四)
l 男性平均想活到78.4歲,女性僅75.9歲。
l 越年長受訪者想活越久(註五)。
四、最晚25歲準備退休金最理想
l 36%認為最晚25歲準備最理想,整體而言,超過五成受訪者認為30歲前準備較佳。
l 女性較有危機意識(註六)。
五、實際準備退休金年齡為33歲
l 開始準備退休金的受訪者,平均33歲開始準備退休金。
l 尚未準備的受訪者,打算45歲才要開始準備,離理想退休金準備年齡25歲晚了20年。
六、退休後生活費較退休前高一成五(註七)
l 生活費外,醫療費是最大項支出,女性又較憂心醫療費用(註八)。
七、退休金主要來源:社會保險或職業退休金
l 六成受訪者退休金主要來自社會保險或職業退休金(註九),其次則為個人儲蓄。
l 軍警公教最依賴社會保險或職業年金,金融保險業最不依賴(註十)。
八、逾四成尚未開始準備退休金
l 手邊沒有多餘的錢,為尚未準備的主因。
l 男性、年輕人較沒準備,女性、金融保險業較有準備(註十一)。
九、近五成沒信心準備好足夠的退休金
l 待業、家管和專業人士最沒信心,軍警公教、金融保險較有信心。
l 經濟前景不明是沒有信心的主因,其次為工作收入不穩定。
十、逾三成害怕未來的退休生活(註十二)
l 越沒準備,對退休也越感到害怕(註十三)。
l 最擔心退休後身體變差(註十四)。
財金智慧教育推廣協會表示,根據FINLEA「2013台灣退休趨勢大調查」結果,以61歲退休、國人平均餘命80歲、每月基本生活費新台幣25,000元估算,要能支應20年退休後基本生活費的退休金至少要600萬元,若25歲開始定期存款,每年利率假設為2%,每個月只需準備9,135元,若45歲才開始準備,每個月必須準備24,719元。
國人平均將有20年的退休生活,退休規劃雖然充滿未知數,但建議越早開始準備越輕鬆,不因錢少而不規劃,從現在起開始行動,退休生活勢必值得期待!
註一:國人退休年齡一覽表
資料來源:行政院主計處
註二:30-34歲受訪者平均打算59歲退休,55-59歲受訪者則打算64歲才退休。
註三:男性想和伴侶住的比例為61%,明顯高於女性的55%。若老了無法照顧自己時,23%男性想讓另一半照顧,高於女性的17%。
註四:101年國民兩性平均餘命為79.51歲,男性為76.43歲,女性為82.82歲。
(資料來源:內政部)
註五:35-39歲受訪者平均想活到74歲,55-59歲受訪者平均想活到82歲。
註六:39%女性認為最晚25歲準備最佳,明顯高於男性的33%。
註七:退休後每人每月的生活費平均為NT$24,681,較目前生活費NT$21,184高出一成五。
註八:近五成認為醫療費會是最大項支出;近六成女性較憂心醫療費支出,明顯高於男性的41%。
註九:包括國民年金、勞保、公保、軍公教退休金等。
註十:八成軍警公教受訪者的退休金主要來源,為社會保險或職業退休年金,金融保險業僅四成。
註十一:以性別來看,46%男性尚未準備,明顯高於女性的41%;以世代分析,56%年輕人(30-34歲)還沒準備,明顯高於平均值43.8%;以職業分析,86%金融保險業受訪者已開始準備退休金,居職業別之冠。
逾七成受訪者(71%)平日鮮少與家人或朋友討論「退休」的議題,僅29%會討論。
女性討論的頻率較高,34%女性受訪者會討論,男性僅24%。
註十二:32%受訪者對未來退休生活感到害怕,27%則表示期待。
註十三:還沒開始準備退休金的受訪者中,有四成對未來的退休生活感到害怕,已開始準備的受訪者當中,僅二成感到害怕。
註十四:近五成受訪者最擔心退休後身體變差,其中女性更擔心健康問題,55%女性受訪者擔心退休後的健康問題,男性僅40%會擔心。
過去每五年新的藥物都幫助人類延長了一年的壽命。
到2025年,如果幹細胞等新科技成功,人類壽命的延長會更多。
報告書的作者圖賈伯卡教授說,這一趨勢的結果就是人類需要工作到85歲才能夠退休。 新研究的結論是,如果人類壽命有上限的話,我們現在還沒有到達那一極限。 世界上人均壽命最高的國家是日本,日本婦女的平均壽命高達84歲半。
如果科學家的結論正確,現在出生的日本女嬰活到100歲的可能性是50%。
http://www.livescience.com/7045-older-population-force-retirement-age-85.html
ST. LOUIS—A person entering the workforce today in America might face a much longer career than Mom and Dad.
Life expectancy in the United States is now around 78 years.
But if anti-aging therapies prove to work as well for humans as they have for worms, flies, and mice in laboratories, by the year 2050 people might routinely reach the ripe old age of 120.
That could place a tremendous burden on the economy if people continue retiring at 65 or earlier.
The retirement age might have to be boosted to 85 to prevent economic collapse, figures Shripad Tuljapurkar of Stanford University.
Do the math
There are 285 million people in the United States, with the median age around 36.
Every two people over the age of 65 depend on money garnered from the wages of 10 working people age 20 to 65.
If current trends continue, by 2050 the population will be 368 million, the median age will be 43, and there will be 3.6 people over 65 per 10 workers, Tuljapurkar explained here last week at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Those are the conservative estimates based on data from the last 50 years, when life expectancy increased by one-fifth of a year per year in industrialized countries.
What if ...
Scientists around the globe are racing to find aging cures. Some of the work on lab animals has shown great promise. One researcher envisions therapies will be developed over the next 25 years to extend lifehundreds of years. Other scientists imagine more modest gains. Gradually, however, aging is being viewed by many as something that can be largely treated.
If anti-aging therapies come into play around 2010—and no one can accurately predict if they will—Tuljapurkar estimates that the U.S. population will run to 440 million people, a median age of 47, and 6.6 persons over 65 will rely on 10 workers.
"What you would need to do is have people retire somewhere between age 75 and 85," Tuljapurkar said.
Increasing the retirement age to 75 would still yield four retired persons per 10 workers in this scenario.
A better solution, Tuljapurkar said, would be to have people retire at 85.
http://psych.stanford.edu/~lifespan/news.htmhttp://psych.stanford.edu/~lifespan/articles/People%20Living%20Longer%20Than%20Ever%20Is%20That%20a%20Good%20Thing%20-%20May%202013.pdfThe good news: We’re living longer than ever. The bad news: We’re living longer than ever in the mid-1800s, most people lived to their mid-30s.
By the 20th century, that had jumped to 77, and today it’s 78
http://www.bookzone.com.tw/event/cb386/simplemoney01.htm
2006年初,美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)在美國《時代》週刊上刊登一篇署名廣告,標題為「八代同堂不是夢」,預言2035年時,人類的平均壽命可望達到一百四十歲!
同年11月,CNN在一篇名為「一百四十歲?長壽大論辯」的專題中,報導一個未來學作家詹姆斯坎頓(James Canton)在其新書《超限未來十大趨勢》(The Extreme Future)中論述人類活到一百四十歲的可能性。
美國人的平均壽命,在兩百年前的十九世紀初為二十三歲,一百年前的二十世紀初為四十七歲,而在剛結束的二十世紀末則為七十八歲,大約是每一百年延長一倍的壽命。
Life at 140? Longer life spans up for debate
POSTED: 1441 GMT (2241 HKT), November 28, 2006
By Steve HargreavesSpecial to CNN
Adjust font size:
NEW YORK (CNN) -- Imagine a world with no cancer, Alzheimer's disease or diabetes, where people routinely live to be 140 years old.
Although outside conventional medical opinion, that world may be just a couple of decades away, according to James Canton, author of a new book, "The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World for the Next 5, 10, and 20 Years."
Canton, who has served as a consultant on future trends for clients including Motorola and the White House, said advances in information technology, biotechnology, neuroscience, and nanotechnology will allow for radical advances in medicine and the treatment of diseases.
"Once medicine becomes boldly proactive, then you're talking about eliminating 70, 80 percent of diseases," Canton said in an interview. "We're just on the edge of this. It's going to happen very shortly."
Canton uses proprietary quantitative and qualitative market research to forecast trends on the future. He currently serves as a senior fellow at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management and is an adviser to the National Science Foundation.
Canton believes that the mapping of the human genome will allow doctors to peer into our medical futures, disable disease-causing genes or pinpoint exactly when an organ will fail.
Replacing that organ would be much easier than it is today, he claims, as genetic engineering will allow organs to be grown and harvested, eliminating the need for long waiting lists.
And advances in medications will refresh the brain, warding off aliments like Alzheimer's or other afflictions that have already set in, he said.
"Cancer and diabetes will be managed diseases in a decade," said Canton. Managing those diseases should lead to gradually increasing life spans, he said. Eventually, Canton said, "Birthday parties for people who are 120, 140 will be commonplace."
But there are doubters who say Canton is not presenting an accurate picture of the future.
"I think that's a pretty optimistic assessment," said Michael Smyer, director of the Center for Aging and Work at Boston College. "We're making progress, but ... that progress is not in the next 10 or 15 years."
Anne Newman, a professor of epidemiology and medicine at the University of Pittsburgh, said some genetic manipulation in other animals has led to dramatic increases in life span. But manipulating genes to increase the human life span is not being done, she said. Instead, the emphasis is on treating diseases.
'We feel like we have a revolution going on, but it won't be so extreme," she said. "We've increased the number of people getting old, but we haven't increased the life span of the species. The average [age] has been increasing because more people are being given a chance to get there."
The National Center for Health Statistics, part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said a man born in 2004 is expected to live 75.2 years, while a woman is expected to live 80.4 years.
The agency stressed these are not projections, but estimates based on current mortality rates.
Canton said the baby boomer generation is the driving force behind advances in medicine. Eyeing the boomer's wealth, companies from across the medical spectrum are pouring money into drugs and technologies of all kinds that will help people live longer lives, Canton said. Whether they will succeed in increasing the human life span appears to be an open question.
"It's quite debatable and fun to argue," said Newman.
Canton believes the human life span will increase and that the ensuing societal changes will be monumental.
"This is the big one," he said. "This makes the Internet seem small
http://www.hairway.org/show.aspx?id=2285&cid=76&page=20
康乃馨養生研究中心
據考古學家的研究,
50萬~20萬年前的北京猿人平均壽命只有17歲左右。
據有關資料證實,
古希臘人的平均壽命估計是20~30歲;
古羅馬人是15~30歲;
中世紀英格蘭人的平均壽命估計是33歲;
20世紀初美國人的平 均壽命估計是48歲左右。
聯合國統計資料,
1995年,全世界人均壽命已達到65歲。
2007年,世界人均壽命最長的是日本,男性平均79歲,女性平 均86歲。
在我國,1947年平均壽命為35歲,2007年提高到72.5歲(男71歲,女74歲)。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy
Worldwide, the average life expectancy at birth was 67.88 years (65.71 years for males and 70.14 years for females) over the period 2005–2010 according to United Nations World Population Prospects 2010 Revision
66.57 years (64.52 years for males and 68.76 years for females) for 2009 according to The World Factbook.
According to theWorld Health Organization (WHO), women on average live longer than men in all countries, with the exception of Tuvalu, Tonga, Kuwait, and Qatar.
http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.688?lang=en
http://www.livescience.com/183-life-expectancy-america-hits-record-high.html
Robert Roy Britt
Life Expectancy in America Hits Record High
February 28, 2005
The average life expectancy for Americans is 77.6 years, a record high according to the latest statistics from
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The CDC released the numbers Monday. Life expectancy is calculated based on mortality in 2003, the most recent year for which substantially complete data is available.
The figure is up from 77.3 in 2002 and comes in spite of a decades-long rise in obesity reported by the agency in October.
The new CDC report also shows that the gender gap is closing. The difference between life expectancy in men and women (who live longer) closed from 5.4 years in 2002 to 5.3 years in 2003. The gap as 7.8 years in 1979.
The report, "Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2003," was prepared by CDC's National Center for Health Statistics.
Among the conclusions were record-high life expectancies in several categories:
White males - 75.4 years
Black males - 69.2 years
White females - 80.5 years
Black females - 76.1 years
Hawaii had the lowest, or best mortality rate while Mississippi had the highest.
Positive numbers
Age-adjusted death rates declined for eight of the 15 leading causes of death, including the two leading causes of death: heart disease (down 3.6 percent) and cancer (down 2.2 percent). Strokes were off 4.6 percent and suicide was down 3.7 percent.
For decades, heart disease was the nation's top killer. Cancer took its place for Americans 85 and younger as of 2002, according to a separate report released in January.
Some other encouraging findings:
Firearm mortality dropped nearly 3 percent between 2002 and 2003.
The preliminary age-adjusted death rate for HIV declined 4.1 percent between 2002 and 2003, continuing a downward trend observed since 1994.
Age-adjusted death rates from alcohol dropped 4.3 percent and the rate for drug-related deaths fell 3.3 percent over the previous year.
(*2) The World Health Organisation Global Burden of Disease study, published updated figures in 2012