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Fundamental Concepts
of International Politics
Spring 2014
Prof. H. Steven Green
Toyo University
Faculty of Law
Class 10, Lecture 8
June 15th, 2015
Part I
Cuban Missile Crisis
USSR Remained in Eastern Europe after WWII
Western Europe allies with USA
The Division of Germany
The Division of Berlin
The Hungarian Uprising, 1956
After Stalin’s death, Hungarians try to free themselves from Soviet rule.
USSR crushes the uprising, killing thousands of Hungarians who resisted. Hundreds of
thousands of refugees flee
The Cuban Revolution - 1959
• Fidel Castro overthrows U.S.-backed Batista regime
• Sets up Communist state 90 miles off U.S. territory
• Close ally with USSR: Receives money, weapons, training
THE BERLIN WALL- 1961
• USSR supports East German plan to build wall.
• Berlin becomes divided: East Berliners and East Germans may NOT
leave the city or the country.
• US does not try to stop it (Signal to Khrushchev that JFK was weak.)
THE BERLIN WALL- 1961
Kennedy and Cuba
the Bay of Pigs (1961) and the Missile Crisis (1962)
10.14.1962
U2 spy plane discovers missiles bases in Cuba
10.20-21.1962
USA responds with blockade + demand for USSR
to remove missiles
10.28.1962
USSR announces it will remove the missiles
We need to answer:
1.Why did the USSR place missiles in Cuba?
2.Why did the US respond with a blockade?
1.Why was there was no military conflict?
(BONUS question!)
1. Why did the USSR place missiles in Cuba?
The USSR wanted:
• To protect its ally against the US (after Bay of
Pigs)
• To control all of Berlin (Khrushchev believed
Cuban missiles could stop US from fighting USSR
in Berlin)
Chicken
IDEA:
• Two cars driving toward each other
Chicken
IDEA:
• The first to swerve loses
Chicken: Payoff Matrix
Swerve Continue
Swerve Tie Lose, Win
Continue Win, Lose
Chicken
Khrushchev expected Kennedy to swerve
Actors & Actions
Actors: USA (Kennedy), USSR (Krsushchev)
Actions:
USA
• Do nothing
• Respond with blockade
USSR
• Keep missiles
• Remove missiles
Cuban Missile Crisis as Chicken Game
USSR removes
missiles
(swerve)
USSR keeps
missiles
(continue)
USA does
nothing(swer
ve)
Tie Lose, Win
USA responds
with
blockade(conti
nue)
Win, Lose
Brinksmanship 瀬戸ぎわ政策
• The chicken game is based on brinksmanship
• The goal of each player is to bring the
situation as close to disaster as possible…
• In order to achieve the best outcome .
IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONVINCE YOUR ENEMY
THAT YOU WILL NOT SWERVE!
Kennedy did not swerve: Kept blockade,
convinced Khrushchev that USA would risk
military conflict that could lead to war.
2. Why did USA respond with a
blockade?
“…the greatest danger of all would be to do
nothing.”
• Understood it was best strategy for crisis and for
Cold War
• If the USA did nothing (i.e. swerved) the USSR
would believe the USA was “chicken” (i.e.
cowardly) and do something more aggressive (e.g.
invade West Berlin)
• USA’s allies would not trust it anymore
• USA population would not trust leadership that
allowed missiles so close
CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS
•USSR agrees to remove
missiles from Cuba
•USA agrees never to
invade Cuba
•USA also privately agrees
to remove nuclear
weapons from Turkey, but
•USA looks stronger: Has
reassured allies
3. Why was there was no military conflict?
Which game helps us answer this question?
Stag hunt? Prisoner’s dilemma? Chicken?
WORK IN GROUPS OF 3-4 TO ANSWER THIS
QUESTION
Hint:
Actions for both USA and USSR are
“attack” or “don’t attack”
Repeated Prisoner’s dilemma
(i.e. thinking about future)
USSR does not
attack
USSR attacks
USA does not
attack
Status quo
(0,0)
Lose, Win
-5, 5
USA attacks
Win, Lose
5, -5
-3, -3
Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma
Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow
1. If USA and USSR do not attack in each period,
the payoffs (results) for both are:
Today: 0
Tomorrow: 0
Day after tomorrow: 0
Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma
Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow
2. If the USSR considers attacking today, but
knows the USA will counter-attack tomorrow,
then the USSR’s payoffs are:
Today: 5
Tomorrow: -3
Day after tomorrow: -3
Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma
Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow
Tomorrow is important!
Both the USA and USSR knew the other would
counter-attack (retaliate)
Each leader thinks about payoffs in all time
periods, not just today.
Suddenly, liberalism looks important…
Cuban Missile Crisis is a “wake up call”
(モーニングコール 緊急な注意を促すもの)
•USA and USSR understand how easily conflict could
become total nuclear war.
•Create the “Moscow-Washington hotline” so leaders can
talk directly to each other immediately.
Fundamental Concepts
of International Politics
Spring 2014
Prof. H. Steven Green
Toyo University
Faculty of Law
Class 10, Lecture 8
June 15th, 2015
Part II
What is power?
POWER
Power
States are the most important actors in the
international system because they have
the most power.
What are 4 reasons for the
unique power of states?
The Power of States
1. States control the flow of people,
money and goods* across borders.
*人・金・物の国境を越えての移動
(人・金・物の流れ = flow of people, etc.)
The Power of States
2. States have armies.
The Power of States
3. States can tax and spend.*
*税制と歳出
The Power of States
4. States have no authority above them.
The Power of States
States are the most powerful actors in the international
system, but:
• How do states use power?
• Is there one kind or many kinds of power? How do
states use different kinds of power?
Let’s begin with the most basic, but also
the most important, question…
WHAT IS POWER?
WHAT IS POWER?
What is Power?
This question is harder to answer than it seems.
• Nye says power is like love-
• We know it when we experience it, but…
• It is difficult to explain.
POWER
POWER IS NOT AN END IN ITSELF
Power is a resource used to
get others to do what you
want them to do.
Powerはそれ自体が目的なのではありません。
。
What is Power?
We can use “sticks” (threats) or “carrots”
(rewards) to get others to do things we want.
We use both carrots and sticks, depending on
the situation.
Power and University Life
In this class,
is Mr. Green powerful?
Why or why not?
Write at least 2 reasons why Mr. Green is
powerful and 2 reasons why Mr. Green
is NOT powerful in this class.
Three Kinds of Power
Next, we will talk about
3 “dimensions of power”
• Think of each dimension of power as a
“face of power”
• We may say, “Power has 3 faces”
• Three faces of the same thing: power
Dimension = face = kind
John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness
(Not in the textbook)
Forms of Power:
First
Dimension:
Coercive
Power
強制力
A has power over B if A can
get B to do something B
would not otherwise do.
•Resource-based power: B does
not have resources to stop A
Power resources (Nye)
What are power resources?
States’
power
depends on
how many
or how
much of
these
resources
they have
• population
• territory
• natural resources
• size of economy
• military (size and technology)
• political stability (政治的安定)
John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness
Forms of Power:
First
Dimension:
Coercive
Power
Examples:
A points a gun at B and says, “Give me
your money or I’ll shoot you.”
Gulf War, 1990: US and UK push Iraq
army out of Kuwait. (Military power)
Oil embargo* of 130 countries against
South Africa, 1987. (Economic power)
*embargo =禁輸措置
John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness
Forms of Power:
Second
Dimension
Agenda-
Setting
Power
政治日程を
組む力
A has power over B if A can
can decide what issues are
on the agenda.*
•Institution-design based power
*議題に予定されている
John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness
Forms of Power:
Second
Dimension:
Agenda-
Setting
Power
Examples: I make the syllabus for this
class; I decide what we will learn and
how we will learn it.
Foreigners cannot vote, so what
foreigners want is not part of domestic
politics.
UNSC (国連安全保障理事会) has only 5
permanent members.
John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness
Forms of Power:
Third
Dimension:
Situated
Social
Power
A has power over B if A can
influence or create what B
wants indirectly.
•Idea- or culture-based power:
What B thinks it wants
is created by A.
John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness
Forms of Power:
Third
Dimension:
Situated
Social
Power
Examples:
You were raised in a family and society
that cares about education. Also,
education is necessary for many jobs.
In this class, you care about the things I
talk about and you give me authority. (私に
権限を与える)
Europe and Japan admired American
values after World War II.
Power and university life
Look at what you wrote about Mr. Green’s
power in this class.
What dimensions of power can you
find in each?
What is power?
As we have seen so far:
• There are different kinds of power
• Coercion is the most direct kind
• Agenda-setting and Social-based power
are less direct
POWER RESOURCES (Nye)
To influence other states or other actors,
states use different resources, including:
• Population
• Territory
• Natural resources
• Economic size
• Military strength
POWER POTENTIAL (Nye)
How many power resources a state has is
its power potential.
POWER CONVERSION (Nye)
Power conversion (パワー変換)
• When a state uses its power to change
others’ actions it has converted its power.
• Power potential is measured by power
resources
• Power conversion is measured by a state
making others change their actions.
SEE YOU NEXT WEEK

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国際政治基礎A SPRING 2015 CLASS 10 LECTURE 8

  • 1. Fundamental Concepts of International Politics Spring 2014 Prof. H. Steven Green Toyo University Faculty of Law Class 10, Lecture 8 June 15th, 2015 Part I Cuban Missile Crisis
  • 2. USSR Remained in Eastern Europe after WWII
  • 4. The Division of Germany
  • 6. The Hungarian Uprising, 1956 After Stalin’s death, Hungarians try to free themselves from Soviet rule. USSR crushes the uprising, killing thousands of Hungarians who resisted. Hundreds of thousands of refugees flee
  • 7. The Cuban Revolution - 1959 • Fidel Castro overthrows U.S.-backed Batista regime • Sets up Communist state 90 miles off U.S. territory • Close ally with USSR: Receives money, weapons, training
  • 8. THE BERLIN WALL- 1961 • USSR supports East German plan to build wall. • Berlin becomes divided: East Berliners and East Germans may NOT leave the city or the country. • US does not try to stop it (Signal to Khrushchev that JFK was weak.)
  • 10. Kennedy and Cuba the Bay of Pigs (1961) and the Missile Crisis (1962)
  • 11. 10.14.1962 U2 spy plane discovers missiles bases in Cuba
  • 12. 10.20-21.1962 USA responds with blockade + demand for USSR to remove missiles
  • 13. 10.28.1962 USSR announces it will remove the missiles
  • 14. We need to answer: 1.Why did the USSR place missiles in Cuba? 2.Why did the US respond with a blockade? 1.Why was there was no military conflict? (BONUS question!)
  • 15. 1. Why did the USSR place missiles in Cuba? The USSR wanted: • To protect its ally against the US (after Bay of Pigs) • To control all of Berlin (Khrushchev believed Cuban missiles could stop US from fighting USSR in Berlin)
  • 16. Chicken IDEA: • Two cars driving toward each other
  • 17. Chicken IDEA: • The first to swerve loses
  • 18. Chicken: Payoff Matrix Swerve Continue Swerve Tie Lose, Win Continue Win, Lose
  • 20. Actors & Actions Actors: USA (Kennedy), USSR (Krsushchev) Actions: USA • Do nothing • Respond with blockade USSR • Keep missiles • Remove missiles
  • 21. Cuban Missile Crisis as Chicken Game USSR removes missiles (swerve) USSR keeps missiles (continue) USA does nothing(swer ve) Tie Lose, Win USA responds with blockade(conti nue) Win, Lose
  • 22. Brinksmanship 瀬戸ぎわ政策 • The chicken game is based on brinksmanship • The goal of each player is to bring the situation as close to disaster as possible… • In order to achieve the best outcome . IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONVINCE YOUR ENEMY THAT YOU WILL NOT SWERVE!
  • 23. Kennedy did not swerve: Kept blockade, convinced Khrushchev that USA would risk military conflict that could lead to war.
  • 24. 2. Why did USA respond with a blockade? “…the greatest danger of all would be to do nothing.” • Understood it was best strategy for crisis and for Cold War • If the USA did nothing (i.e. swerved) the USSR would believe the USA was “chicken” (i.e. cowardly) and do something more aggressive (e.g. invade West Berlin) • USA’s allies would not trust it anymore • USA population would not trust leadership that allowed missiles so close
  • 25. CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS •USSR agrees to remove missiles from Cuba •USA agrees never to invade Cuba •USA also privately agrees to remove nuclear weapons from Turkey, but •USA looks stronger: Has reassured allies
  • 26. 3. Why was there was no military conflict? Which game helps us answer this question? Stag hunt? Prisoner’s dilemma? Chicken? WORK IN GROUPS OF 3-4 TO ANSWER THIS QUESTION Hint: Actions for both USA and USSR are “attack” or “don’t attack”
  • 27. Repeated Prisoner’s dilemma (i.e. thinking about future) USSR does not attack USSR attacks USA does not attack Status quo (0,0) Lose, Win -5, 5 USA attacks Win, Lose 5, -5 -3, -3
  • 28. Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow 1. If USA and USSR do not attack in each period, the payoffs (results) for both are: Today: 0 Tomorrow: 0 Day after tomorrow: 0
  • 29. Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow 2. If the USSR considers attacking today, but knows the USA will counter-attack tomorrow, then the USSR’s payoffs are: Today: 5 Tomorrow: -3 Day after tomorrow: -3
  • 30. Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow Tomorrow is important! Both the USA and USSR knew the other would counter-attack (retaliate) Each leader thinks about payoffs in all time periods, not just today. Suddenly, liberalism looks important…
  • 31. Cuban Missile Crisis is a “wake up call” (モーニングコール 緊急な注意を促すもの) •USA and USSR understand how easily conflict could become total nuclear war. •Create the “Moscow-Washington hotline” so leaders can talk directly to each other immediately.
  • 32. Fundamental Concepts of International Politics Spring 2014 Prof. H. Steven Green Toyo University Faculty of Law Class 10, Lecture 8 June 15th, 2015 Part II What is power?
  • 33. POWER
  • 34. Power States are the most important actors in the international system because they have the most power. What are 4 reasons for the unique power of states?
  • 35. The Power of States 1. States control the flow of people, money and goods* across borders. *人・金・物の国境を越えての移動 (人・金・物の流れ = flow of people, etc.)
  • 36. The Power of States 2. States have armies.
  • 37. The Power of States 3. States can tax and spend.* *税制と歳出
  • 38. The Power of States 4. States have no authority above them.
  • 39. The Power of States States are the most powerful actors in the international system, but: • How do states use power? • Is there one kind or many kinds of power? How do states use different kinds of power? Let’s begin with the most basic, but also the most important, question…
  • 42. What is Power? This question is harder to answer than it seems. • Nye says power is like love- • We know it when we experience it, but… • It is difficult to explain.
  • 43. POWER POWER IS NOT AN END IN ITSELF Power is a resource used to get others to do what you want them to do. Powerはそれ自体が目的なのではありません。 。
  • 44. What is Power? We can use “sticks” (threats) or “carrots” (rewards) to get others to do things we want. We use both carrots and sticks, depending on the situation.
  • 45. Power and University Life In this class, is Mr. Green powerful? Why or why not? Write at least 2 reasons why Mr. Green is powerful and 2 reasons why Mr. Green is NOT powerful in this class.
  • 46. Three Kinds of Power Next, we will talk about 3 “dimensions of power” • Think of each dimension of power as a “face of power” • We may say, “Power has 3 faces” • Three faces of the same thing: power Dimension = face = kind
  • 47. John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness (Not in the textbook) Forms of Power: First Dimension: Coercive Power 強制力 A has power over B if A can get B to do something B would not otherwise do. •Resource-based power: B does not have resources to stop A
  • 48. Power resources (Nye) What are power resources? States’ power depends on how many or how much of these resources they have • population • territory • natural resources • size of economy • military (size and technology) • political stability (政治的安定)
  • 49. John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness Forms of Power: First Dimension: Coercive Power Examples: A points a gun at B and says, “Give me your money or I’ll shoot you.” Gulf War, 1990: US and UK push Iraq army out of Kuwait. (Military power) Oil embargo* of 130 countries against South Africa, 1987. (Economic power) *embargo =禁輸措置
  • 50. John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness Forms of Power: Second Dimension Agenda- Setting Power 政治日程を 組む力 A has power over B if A can can decide what issues are on the agenda.* •Institution-design based power *議題に予定されている
  • 51. John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness Forms of Power: Second Dimension: Agenda- Setting Power Examples: I make the syllabus for this class; I decide what we will learn and how we will learn it. Foreigners cannot vote, so what foreigners want is not part of domestic politics. UNSC (国連安全保障理事会) has only 5 permanent members.
  • 52. John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness Forms of Power: Third Dimension: Situated Social Power A has power over B if A can influence or create what B wants indirectly. •Idea- or culture-based power: What B thinks it wants is created by A.
  • 53. John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness Forms of Power: Third Dimension: Situated Social Power Examples: You were raised in a family and society that cares about education. Also, education is necessary for many jobs. In this class, you care about the things I talk about and you give me authority. (私に 権限を与える) Europe and Japan admired American values after World War II.
  • 54. Power and university life Look at what you wrote about Mr. Green’s power in this class. What dimensions of power can you find in each?
  • 55. What is power? As we have seen so far: • There are different kinds of power • Coercion is the most direct kind • Agenda-setting and Social-based power are less direct
  • 56. POWER RESOURCES (Nye) To influence other states or other actors, states use different resources, including: • Population • Territory • Natural resources • Economic size • Military strength
  • 57. POWER POTENTIAL (Nye) How many power resources a state has is its power potential.
  • 58. POWER CONVERSION (Nye) Power conversion (パワー変換) • When a state uses its power to change others’ actions it has converted its power. • Power potential is measured by power resources • Power conversion is measured by a state making others change their actions.
  • 59. SEE YOU NEXT WEEK