The document discusses how the future often appears flat and linear from our current perspective, similar to how the horizon appears flat from the ground or a track appears flat to an ant. However, just as the horizon curves and a track leads up a hill, technological changes often occur gradually over time in an S-curve pattern. Molecular manufacturing and nanotechnology may lead to especially rapid and disruptive changes similar to previous industrial revolutions but on an accelerated timescale. It is important to gain a broader perspective to recognize and prepare for upcoming technological changes rather than assume the future will be similar to the present.

1. The Flat Horizon
Problem
Mike Treder, Executive Director
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
nanotechnology on an upward slope

2. Stand by the ocean, looking out. It is rare in nature to find a
truly flat line, but that’s what the horizon appears to be.

3. Of course, the horizon
is not a flat line.
It curves, but
gradually,
and it
isn’t
easy
for us
to detect
the curve.
In truth, it’s not
a line at all, because
the earth has no edge.

4. We can understand, though, why many
premodern societies believed the earth
to be flat, with an edge somewhere.
After all, that’s how it looks.

5. Now, stand in the
present, looking toward
the future. Does it look
pretty much like today,
except more modern?
In reality, the future
holds many changes:
some transformative,
some beneficial, and
some dangerous.

6. The most disruptive future changes may occur
as a result of molecular manufacturing, an
advanced form of nanotechnology.

7. But if the future really will be so different from today,
why doesn’t it look that way from here?

8. The Intuitive Linear View
Time
Change
The problem is human perspective, what Ray Kurzweil calls the “Intuitive
Linear View.” When we see something that looks like a straight line, we
naturally assume that it is. Although change occurs around us every day,
unless we look closely we may not notice it. So, we logically think that last
week, last month, and last year were like today, and that next year and a
few years after that won’t be much different either.

9. Now, stand on the rails of a roller coaster,
just before the climb up the highest hill
(in your imagination only!).

10. Ant
Crouch down low, until your eye is even with the track. Get an ant’s eye view…

11. To an ant, the track looks totally flat, like it goes on flat forever.
The ant can’t see far enough.
In reality, the track gradually curves upwards.

12. Standing up, you, the human,
can see the slope ahead and the
smooth incline of the track.

13. Walk up the track toward the big hill. The further you
go, the steeper the curve becomes. If you look back,
it’s clear how high you have ascended.
But crouch down for the ant’s eye view again,
and what do you see?

14. The ant sees more flat track, whether looking forward or back.

15. Leave the roller
coaster now
and come back
to reality.
Stand up really tall, peer back into history, and imagine
how things seemed from the Intuitive Linear View…

16. 1885:
No such thing as automobiles or airplanes.

17. 1885: The British Empire
will last forever.

18. 1926
1926: No such thing as
television or cable.

19. 1926: The stock market
will rise forever.

20. 1957:
No such thing as
communications
satellites or the
Berlin Wall.

21. Cuba
1957:
The sunny
business
partnership
between Cuba
and the USA
will prosper
forever.

22. 1967: No such thing as desktop
computers or cell phones.

23. Kennedy & King
1967:
Martin Luther King
and Bobby Kennedy
will be leaders for
decades to come.

25. 1974
"It will be years, not
in my time, before a
woman will become
Prime Minister.“
1974:
— Margaret Thatcher

26. 1986: No such thing as the
World Wide Web.

27. 1986: The Soviet Union and the
Cold War will last
forever.

28. 1995
1995:
Spam is a
luncheon
meat.

29. 1995
1995:
Terrorism is
something bad
that happens to
someone else .

30. 2005

31. Graphic Rendition of a Desktop Nanofactory
Courtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios
2005: No such thing as molecular
manufacturing.

32. Current socio-political conditions
and structures will last forever.
2005:

33. The idea that nothing really changes…
It’s simple to see how wrong this is,
but it’s easy to slip into.

34. As for nanotechnology’s transformative
and disruptive impacts, we’re on the
roller coaster heading toward the
big climb. Progress is occurring
every day, taking us closer,
even if we don’t notice the
gradual incline. Soon,
however, the curve
will sharpen and
take us rapidly into
a future for which
we may not
be prepared.

35. The Coming
Nanotechnology
Revolution
 Not just new products — a new means of production
 Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing
systems — exponential proliferation
 Accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping
 Affects all industries— general-purpose technology
 Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost —
economic discontinuity
 Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption
 Impacts will cross borders — global transformation

36. Computers
BIG STEPS in Economic,
Social, and Political History
Time
Change
Automobiles
Railways
Steam Engines

37. Time
Change
BIG STEPS in Economic,
Social, and Political History

38. Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves
Time
Change

39. Time
Change
Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves

40. Time
Change
Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves

41. Societal
Im
pacts
Time
Industrial Revolutions

42. Societal
Im
pacts
Time
(Measured in decades)
Industrial Revolutions

43. Societal
Im
pacts
Time
(Measured in YEARS)
Nanotechnology Revolution

44. Societal
Im
pacts
Time
Accelerated Impacts
Industrial Revolutions
Molecular
Manufacturing
Revolution

45. Societal
Im
pacts
Time
The Next Big Step
Steam Engines
Computers
Railways
Automobiles
(Middle Ages)

46. Societal
Im
pacts
Time
Steam Engines
Computers
Railways
Automobiles
(Middle Ages)
Nanotechnology
The Next Big Step

47. Nanotechnology
Societal
Im
pacts
Time
The Next Big Step
Steam Engines
Computers
Railways
Automobiles
(Middle Ages)

48. Now is the time to stand up, get out
of the Intuitive Linear View, avoid
the Myth of Perpetuation, and
observe the upward curve…

49. Once we have gained perspective,
we can begin to make wise
decisions for a better and safer
nano future!

50. Nanotechnology on
an Upward Slope
Mike Treder
Center for Responsible
Nanotechnology
www.crnano.org
mtreder@crnano.org