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1. SPACE SAFETY IN 2030
T. Sgobba
Executive Director
International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS)
April 9th
, 2014

2. In the human spaceflight community we are accustomed to think about future space
programs in terms of affordability and justifiable scientific value. As a matter of
fact commercial and first of all military interests in orbital outerspace, and foreign
policy may be the prime drivers of political decisions and shape international
cooperative initiatives.
To guess what may happen, we must get aware of current challenges and how the
world is going to change in the coming 15 years.
Foreword

3. • Outerspace regions
• Airspace & outerspace
• Commercial human transportation
• Space safety
• Military/intelligence started space
• Congested-Competitive-Contested
• World in 2030
• Space safety goals for 2030
Content

4. Today, referring to all space activities as exploration activities has become meaningless.
Outer space is made of two functional regions: the “space-exploitation” region (ETR) and
the “space-exploration” region (ERR). The border between the two regions lays currently at
the upper end of the geosynchronous orbits (36,000 km).
Outerspace “regions”
Exploitation
Exploration
(Note: according to dictionary ‘exploitation’ means making productive use, while ‘exploration’
means, traveling over new territory, for adventure, discovery or investigation).

5. • The main interests in the space-exploitation region, are commercial and military
• The main interests in the space exploration region are scientific
Outerspace “regions”: growing divide

6. • Important elements of civil aviation infrastructure and services (air traffic control,
communication, meteorology) are becoming space-based.
• Vehicles are being developed that will operate in both domains.
Airspace & outerspace: fading divide

7. • There are common concerns like space weather, sharing of airspace during launch
and re-entry operations, protection of the atmospheric and orbital environment (i.e.
space debris).
• A large part of space launch and re-entry operations take place through the international
airspace under the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) jurisdiction.
Airspace & outerspace: fading divide (cont’d)

8. Commercial human transportation coming of age

9. Commercial human transportation coming of age (cont’d)

10. Aerospaceports: a growing reality

11. Space safety: what is it?

12. Spaceports worldwide involved in commercial operations do not operate according to
common (international) industrial safety standards. Foreign teams involved in launch
preparation may be exposed to unwanted levels of risk.
Space safety: ground operations safety riskSpace safety: ground operations safety risk
Brazil 2003
California 2007

13. There is no international agency to monitor and control the cumulative risk imparted
annually to overflown populations by launch and re-entry operations.
Space safety: launch failuresSpace safety: launch failures
CZ-3B on February 15, 1996
CZ-3B on February 15, 1996

14. • More than 6800 spacecraft have been placed into Earth orbit since Sputnik 1 in 1957.
Currently, more than 3200 spacecraft remain in Earth orbit. 2200 of them are orbital debris.
• More than 5400 launch vehicle stages have been placed into Earth orbit since 1957.
Currently, more than 1700 launch vehicle stages remain in Earth orbit. Sizes range from
<100 kg to 8 tons.
• According to the “Kessler syndrome”, uncontrolled space debris are bound to trigger a
self-sustaining collisional cascade, where each collision contributes to an increase in the
frequency of future collisions .
Space safety: space debris pollutionSpace safety: space debris pollution
Growth of Launch Vehicle Stages in Earth OrbitGrowth of Spacecraft in Earth Orbit
More than 1700 still on orbitMore than 1700 still on orbit

15. The first accidental hypervelocity collision between two intact artificial satellites in Earth
orbit occurred at 16:56 UTC on February 10, 2009 when Iridium 33 and Kosmos-2251
collided at a speed of 42,120 km/h.
Space safety: on-orbit collision riskSpace safety: on-orbit collision risk

16. Space safety: re-entry riskSpace safety: re-entry risk
China
2004
Guatemala 1998
Saudi Arabia 2001
Australia 2007 Texas 1997
1979
Every year 100 tons of space debris and meteorites enter the atmosphere and fall to
ground. There is on average oneone re-entry of a major space system (spacecraft or
upper stage) per week.

17. Space safety: aircraft vulnerable to (small) space debris &Space safety: aircraft vulnerable to (small) space debris &
meteoritesmeteorites
A 300 grams debris fragment can be catastrophic for an aircraft in flight.

18. Space safety: ground & atmospheric pollutionSpace safety: ground & atmospheric pollution
Source Jonas Bendiksen’s book: Satellites -2006
Cosmos 954 - Canada 1978
Mojave - 2013
30 kg of uranium-235 from Cosmos 954
were spread over 124,000 km2. Only 1%
of radioactive fuel was recovered in 12
pieces. They emitted radioactivity of up
to 1.1 Sieverts/hour. Usually a nuclear
emergency is declared at 500 micro-
Sieverts/hour).
On July 2, 2013 a Proton-M
plunged to ground 2.5 km from
Baikonur launch pad spreading
600 tons of highly toxic UDMH
and Dinitrogen Tetroxide.

19. Military/intelligence launched most space systemsMilitary/intelligence launched most space systems
Yang Liwei
Since the beginning of the space era, both the United States and the former Soviet
Union developed and implemented programs that were more military in nature than
civilian or scientific. Military programs/successors: ICBM/ launchers, USAF Dyna-
Soar/Shuttle, USAF Military Orbital Lab & USSR Almaz/ MIR & ISS Space Stations,
Corona & spy satellites/earth observation, GPS/GNSS, etc. The first astronauts from
US, USSR and China were all military.

20. • the United States' (U.S.) increasing economic and military dependence on space
creates a vulnerability that is an attractive target for our foreign adversaries. If
adversaries are able to employ offensive counterspace operations--operations
which are intended to deceive, disrupt, deny, degrade, or destroy U.S. space
systems--the force multiplication effect they provide would be reduced or eliminated.
This could lead to more expensive victories or even to defeat.
• Current trends such as technology proliferation, accessibility to space, globalization
of space programs and industries, commercialization of space systems and
services, and foreign knowledge about U.S. space systems increases the likelihood
that the U.S. will experience a "Space Pearl Harbor."
Congested-competitive-contested
(Report of the Commission to Assess United States National Security, Space Management and
Organization – 2001)

21. • For more than two decades a debate have been raging between US on one side
and Russia and China on the other side on banning space-based weapons (i.e anti-
ballistic missiles that also work as anti-satellites). The initial concern being an
altered nuclear balance of forces between superpowers. The debate is better known
as PAROS (Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space).
• An International Code of Conduct for Space Operations is in preparation
(initially proposed by EU) that it is meant to mediate the above concerns, while
addressing also some safety issues (i.e. space traffic management, space debris
issues).
• Space is increasingly a contested domain where U.S. dominance is no longer
assured given the growing number of actors in space and kinetic and non-kinetic
attack threats, including ASAT weapons, EMP, and jamming.
Congested-competitive-contested (cont’d)
In recent years China has performed 4 ASAT in
2007, 2010, and two in 2013. The one in 2007
created 3000 new space debris, and the last
one that tested only the launcher has the
capability to reach MEO and GEO orbits.

22. The world in 2030
In just 15 years from now:
•“The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today. By 2030,
no country—whether the US, China, or any other large country—will be a
hegemonic power. The empowerment of individuals and diffusion of power
among states and from states to informal networks will have a dramatic impact,
largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750”
•“The current, largely Western dominance of global structures such as the UN
Security Council, World Bank, and IMF probably will have been transformed by
2030 to be more in line with the changing hierarchy of new economic players.
Many second-tier emerging powers will be making their mark - at least as
emerging regional leaders.’’
(US Government - Office of the Director of the National Intelligence – National
Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2030)

23. The world in 2030
In just 15 years from now:
•Population - The world population will increase of about 1 billion. But the
populations of Europe and Japan will decline while China and India will continue
to grow. There will be 1.5 billion Chinese in 2030.
•GDP - In 2030, the combined GDP of China and India will be larger than the
combined GDP of USA, Canada, Japan, Germany, UK, France and Italy
together. The GDP of Brazil will surpass Japan.
•Asia raising - Asia will be close to become the center of gravity of the world.
Not only China and India, but including Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia.
•Africa economy - Africa will be the continent of most dynamic emerging
economies.
(For a Positive Economy – Attali & others - Fayard, Paris, 2013)

24. • Taking into account the interest of future generations is becoming a universally
accepted ethical principle.
• Altruism towards future generations is seen as a motor more powerful than
individualism in moving the market economy.
(Adapted from : For a Positive Economy – Attali & others - Fayard, Paris, 2013)
The world in 2030: The Interest of Future Generations

25. Space safety in 2030Space safety in 2030
Will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change instead of being
overwhelmed by it? Will the loss of hegemonic roles help forging space governance and launch new
international space explorations programs? Most probably yes but at certain conditions.
By 2030 concerns about a ‘Pearl Harbor’ in space should have vanished thanks to a number of
corrective actions (being already implemented), like so-called ‘disaggregation’, flying military
payloads on multiple commercial jamming resistant satellites, using high altitude platforms,
alternatives to GPS, etc.
By 2030 space global governance will be a solid reality if the spacefaring countries will pursue the
vision NOW of establishing an international regulatory framework for civil/commercial space well
separated from military code of conducts and security treaties. (Civil aviation is an inspiring model
under many respect, starting with traffic management and environment protection)
By 2030 international space exploration will be advancing if United States, China and Russia will
have effectively and organizationally separated by 2020 space military programs from civil programs.
In particular:
- US by greatly limiting the scope/impact of ITAR (International Traffic in Arms
Regulations) to actual risks for national security,
- China by relocating all space exploration programs well outside the PLA (People’s
Liberation Army)

26. Space safety goals for 2030 : IAASS ManifestoSpace safety goals for 2030 : IAASS Manifesto