Malaysia expects a 15.5% increase in palm oil output this year and a 2.5% rise in 2018 due to better yields and expansion. Production could reach 20 million tonnes this year and 20.5 million tonnes next year, up from 17.3 million tonnes in 2016. Higher global demand, especially from China, the EU, and India, may push palm oil prices up to an average of 2,750 ringgit per tonne in 2018. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India has asked the government to raise import duties on edible oils to support domestic oilseed farmers. The International Grains Council increased its forecast for 2017/18 global grain production to 2.075 billion ton

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30TH
OCT 2017

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Malaysian Palm Oil output may rise 15.5% this year
Malaysia, the world's second largest producer of Palm oil, is expecting a 15.5% increase in output this year, and a growth of
2.5 percent in 2018, according to latest government estimates.Malaysian output is forecast to rise to 20 million tonnes this
year, and to 20.5 million tonnes in 2018 due to better yields and expansion into matured areas, the report said. In 2016,
production was 17.3 million tonnes.There is a possibility for increase in the price of Palm oil because of hike in the
demand.Palm oil price is expected to increase to an average of 2,750 ringgit per tonne next year bolstered by higher demand,
particularly from China, the EU (European Union) and India,” said the report.The government expects an average palm oil
price of 2,700 ringgit ($638) per tonne this year.
Industry body seeks hike in import duty on Edible Oils
The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) has requested the Centre to increase the import duty on edible oils as the
prices of several oilseeds, including Groundnut and Soyabean, had tumbled below Minimum Support Price (MSP) levels owing
to cheaper imports of edible oils.The demand for a hike in import duty comes in the backdrop of the Gujarat government’s
Groundnut procurement at Rs 900 per 20 kg, which started on Wednesday.Earlier the Centre had raised the import duty on
Crude Palm Oil by 7.5%, RBD Palmolein by 10% and crude Soyabean Oil by 5% and also increased the duty difference from
7.5% to 10% between crude and refined Palm Oils effective August 11, 2017 to support oilseed farmers. The SEA had also
demanded an increase in the import duty on crude Sunflower and Rapeseed oils to 17.5% - in line with crude Soyabean oil. It
also demanded that the duty on refined Soyabean, Sunflower and Rapeseed Oils be increased to 25% - in line with RBD
Palmolein - to avoid opening of another flood-gate for import of such oils. According to SEA data, India’s overall edible oil
imports for the 11-month period from November 2016 to September 2017 stood at 13.9 million tonnes, as against 13.4
million tonnes in the same period last year.
IGC lifts global Grains forecast for 2017-18
The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its forecast for 2017/18 world grain production, mostly reflecting improved
prospects for the U.S. corn crop. The inter-governmental body, in its monthly report, forecast total grain production at 2.075
billion tonnes, up 6 million tonnes from its previous forecast. The estimate still puts the crop behind last season's record 2.133
billion tonnes, but it is expected to be the second-largest in history. Global corn (maize) production was seen at 1.034 billion
tonnes, up 5 million tonnes from its previous forecast but still below the 2016/17 record of 1.079 billion. The increase was
mostly due to a better outlook for the United States, where estimates were boosted to 362.7 million tonnes from 358.4 million.
The IGC also marginally boosted its estimate for the world wheat crop to 748.5 million tonnes, from a prior forecast of 747.6
million tonnes. "Downgraded outlooks for Australia and Argentina are outweighed by gains for the EU, the USA and Ukraine,"
the IGC said in its report.European Union Wheat production was seen at 155.9 million tonnes, from a previous estimate of
154.4 million tonnes.Global grains consumption for the 2017/18 season was revised up by 8 million tonnes to a new peak
of 2.104 billion tonnes.The improved outlook was mostly due to stronger corn consumption, which was
boosted by 9 million tonnes to 1.067 billion."Much of the rise in maize consumption is in China, where
government measures are stimulating demand in order to curb stocks," the IGC said."Stronger demand is
reflected in a reduced global grains ending stocks forecast, with inventories seen contracting for the first
time in five years." Global Soybean production in 2017/18 was seen at 348 million tonnes, unchanged
from the previous projection and just below the 350 million tonnes produced in 2016/17. Soybean
consumption was seen at 353 million tonnes, up from a previously forecast 351 million tonnes.
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3. Daily Market Wrap up
COMMODITY OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
GUARSEED 3685 3697 3604 3613
RMSEED 3945 3960 3882 3887
SYBEANIDR 2895 2910 2860 2863
JEERAUNJHA 19110 19220 18510 18905
DHANIYA 4926 5054 4915 4983
MEETHAOIL 1275.90 1307.90 1270.70 1298.40
TURMERIC 7152 7342 7152 7312
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4. MENTHAOIL NOV Technical Update
NCDEX MENTHAOIL NOV 2017
RESEARCHER VIEW
CALL BUY MENTHA OIL NOV ABOVE 1320 TGT 1324/1328 SL 1310
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5. GUARSEED NOV Technical Update
NCDEX
NCDEX GUARSEED 2017
RESEARCHER VIEW
CALL SELL GUARSEED NOV BELOW 3600 TGT 3585/3570 SL 3630
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6. DISCLAIMER
The information contained here was gathered from sources deemed reliable
however; no claim is made as to accuracy or content. This does not contain specific
recommendations to buy or sell at particular prices or time, nor should any
examples presented be deemed as such. There is a risk of loss in commodity trading
and you should carefully consider your financial position before making a trade. This
is not, nor is it intended, to be a complete study of chart patterns or technical
analysis and should not be deemed as such. Money Classic Investment Advisors
does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not
be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and
are subject to change without notice. For use at the sole discretion of the investor
without any liability on Money Classic Investment Advisors.
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