South asia weekly trends week ending 03 june 2012


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South Asia Security Trends for Week ending 03 June denotes an increase in the level of violence in Afghanistan with the spring summer campaign in full swing while the familiar political travails continue in rest of the region particularly Nepal and Bnalgadesh

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South asia weekly trends week ending 03 june 2012

  2. 2. AfghanistanTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Increase in violence as • Continued violence due to spring campaigning summer campaigning enhances activity by both seasons. sides. • Russia – China may expand• Hizb Islami Afghanistan engagement suspends talks announcements likely at SCO.
  3. 3. BangladeshTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Political differences • Hopes of political continue even though BNP rapprochement remote as says willing for dialogue. contestations continue• Bangladesh wants India to though some relief by High deliver on various Court to opposition law agreements made at the makers likely. PM level.
  4. 4. BhutanTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Rupee crunch continues • Some relief on Rupee front as India may intervene.
  5. 5. MaldivesTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Hopes of political • Sustained Trend - Political reconciliation dwindle as All differences to remain Party Talks fail. contested. • Three way political split, MDP, PPM and others likely.
  6. 6. MyanmarTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• India Myanmar relations • Likely differences over Suu receive a fillip during visit of Kyi visit to Thailand as same Indian Prime Minister to status accorded as Myanmar. Myanmar President.• Suu Kyi visits Thailand on first external trip.
  7. 7. NepalTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Political Crisis continues. • Efforts to build political• Opposition demands consensus continue. resignation of Prime • Political crisis and Minister Bhattarai. deterioration in law and• President says will only be order situation likely with guided by political opposition bandh on 8 June. consensus for future course of action.• Differences within Maoists Dahal-Bhattarai and Baidya- Thapa factions widen.
  8. 8. PakistanTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Defence Budget enhanced • US Pakistan negotiations to for 2012-13 by 10 percent open NATO supply route. plus. • Possible launch of• Tests of Hatf series of operations in North missiles ongoing. Waziristan by Pak Army.
  9. 9. Sri LankaTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Sri Lanka Foreign and • Continued contestations on Defence Minister outline mechanisms for resolution regional security role in of ethnic differences. Shangri la dialogue
  10. 10. India Foreign PolicyTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• India Iran relations pose a • Indo Pakistan talks on challenge with increased US Siachen 10-11 pressure and visit of the June, however no Iranian Foreign Minister to breakthrough expected. New Delhi to invite Indian Prime Minister for NAM Summit in August.
  11. 11. India DefenceTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Financial powers of service • Indo US Defence Minister chiefs doubled by Minister level talks on 6 June. of Defence.• Shangri la dialogue, Defence Minister expresses concern on freedom of the seas, heavy Chinese spending on arms.• General Bikram Singh takes over as Army Chief.
  12. 12. India Politics and TerrorismTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Anti Corruption civil society • Red Alert on terror threats group - Team Anna targets in metros likely to continue Prime Minister, other ministers for corruption. But seems to be losing balance and dissonance within surfaces.
  13. 13. Jammu and KashmirTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Dip in levels of militancy • Continuing trends - Terror claims DGP of State. encounters likely but will be away from the tourist spots.
  14. 14. North EastTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Clashes in Nagaland • Continued trends - North between terrorist groups. East separatist and Naxal menace combination may raise threat profile in Assam.
  15. 15. Left Wing ExtremismTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• National Investigation • Naxal bandh 5 to 12 Agency (NIA) takes lead in June, increased level of investigation on funds violence anticipated. flow, nexus between militant groups.
  16. 16. Note• Trends are qualitative probabilistic assessments based on news reports and may undergo variation thus application has to be based on assessments by individuals and groups based on their operating environment.• For detailed trend analysis subscription required query email