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Energy efficiency, innovation and technology
Solving the global energy challenge

Dr Ivan Marten
Global Leader Energy Practice

November 30, 2012
Solving the global energy challenge

 1
       Global
                   • The global energy system faces a range of fundamental challenges
     Challenges


 2
       Supply:
                   • Innovation and technology are extending the frontiers of supply
     innovation




                                                                                            Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
 3
     Demand:
                   • Improvements in efficiency can have a major impact on demand
     efficiency


 4
      Policy &
                   • Effective public-private partnership needed to ensure progress
     Partnership



                                                                                        1
1
    Energy challenges: Demand growth
    Global energy demand will continue rising fast

        Global demand will rise 47% to 2035, with                                                  Non-OECD demand will rise 76% to 2035,
      non-OECD countries driving about 90% of this                                                       driven by China and India

         Primary energy                                                                            Primary energy
         demand (Btoe1)                              +47%                                          demand (Btoe)
         20                                                                                        15                                    +76%
                                                                         18.2
                                                            17.0
                                                                                                                                                            12.2
                                              14.9                                                                                              11.2
         15
                                12.4                                                               10                            9.3                         4.4
                                                                         67%                                                                     4.1
                                                            66%




                                                                                                                                                                         Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
         10                                   62%                                                                      7.0       3.5
                   8.6                                                                                                                                       1.7
                                56%                                                                                                              1.4
                                                                                                                       2.4
                  47%                                                                               5                            1.0
                                                                                                          4.1
                                                                                                                       0.7
          5                                                                                               0.9
                                                                                                                0.3


          0                                                                                         0
                 1990          2010         2020            2030        2035                            1990          2010      2020            2030       2035
                                     NON OECD            OECD                                               China        Other Asia             Mid. East & Africa
                                                                                                            India        Latin America          E. Europe/Eurasia


                              91% of new growth is forecasted to come from non-OECD countries
    1. Btoe: billion tonne of oil equivalent
    Source: IEA WEO 2011 – Current Policies Scenario, UK Department of Energy and Climate Change
                                                                                                                                                                     2
1
    Energy challenges: Supply constraints
    Today's energy sources will struggle to meet rising demand


              Forecast oil production reliant on                                                   ...but volumes discovered have declined
            production from "yet-to-find" fields...                                                      significantly in recent decades

                                                                                                 Total resources discovered on
     World oil production (M             bbl/d1)                                                 conventional oil fields (B bbls2)
                                                                                                                                            394
     100                                                                                         400
                                                                                                            Field size:
                                                                                   Yet-to-find
                                                                                                            10-100 M bbls
                                                                                   (crude)
       80                                                                                                   100-1000 M bbls




                                                                                                                                                                              Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
                                                                                   Unconv. oil   300
                                                                                                            1-10 B bbls
                                                                                                            >10 B bbls
       60                                                                          NGLs

                                                                                                 200

       40
                                                                                                                                                                   115
                                                                                   Discovered
                                                                                                 100
       20                                                                          (crude)



        0                                                                                          0
         1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030                                                  1900s 10s   20s    30s   40s   50s   60s   70s   80s   90s 2000s



    1. bbl/d: billion barrels per day
    2. Data is for Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) of conventional oil fields only
    Source: IEA, Rystad UCube, BCG Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                          3
1
    Energy challenges: Environmental
    Meeting climate challenge requires action on many fronts
         Worldwide annual
         CO2 emissions                                                           "New                                              Supply                 Demand
         (billion MT3)                                                          Policies"                                        initiatives             initiatives
         50                                        +50%
                                                                                                                             -50%
                                                     14              43               7

         40
                                                                                                      36               3
                          +38%
                                                                                                                                       4
                                     29                                                                                                          1
         30                                                                                                                                                  7


                    21                                                                                                                                                    22




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         20


                                                                                                                           Emission reduction levers
         10



          0
                   1990            2009          Increase          2035           Savings          2035              CCS        Renewables 2   Nuclear    Energy         2035
                                               without "New      "Current        with "New         "New                                                  efficiency      "450
                                                 Policies"       Policies        Policies 1 "     Policies                                                             Scenario"
                                                                Scenario"                        Scenario"


                                          Meeting the climate challenge necessitates action on both
                                                         the supply and demand side
    1. New Policies Scenario assumes policies announced to date are implemented 2. Renew ables including Biofuels 3. MT: million ton
    Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                   4
2
1
    Supply innovation
    Our energy supplies aim to balance three objectives


     1
                                     • The relative economics of our alternative energy sources
            Cost                          - Finding, development, production and transport costs


     2
                                     • The availability of these sources
         Availability                     - Both on an absolute level – do we have enough?




                                                                                                             Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
                                          - ...and on a national level, to support energy independence

     3

      Sustainability                 • Their relative environmental, health and social impacts




                        All sources have advantages and drawbacks; our energy
                                mix results from the trade-offs we choose

                                                                                                         5
2
    Supply innovation: Oil & gas (I)
    Innovation has created a shale gas boom in the US

           US Shale gas production                                                             US Natural gas price
           (Bcf/d2)                                                                           Henry Hub ($/MMBtu1)
           25                                                                                              24.4    10
                                                            8.9
                                                                              US natural gas
                     8.7                                                       total: 69bcf/d

           20                                                                                                      8



           15                                                                                                      6




                                                                                                                            Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
           10                                                                                                      4

                                                                                                            2.5

             5                                                                                                     2

                     1.4
             0                                                                                                     0
                    2005         2006         2007         2008         2009         2010          2011    2012E


                                                      US shale gas production
                                                      US natural gas price


    1.MMBtu: million British Thermal Unit, 1BTU = 1.055 kjoules. 2012 Henry Hub gas price is YTD average
    2.bcf/d: billion cubic feet per day
    Source: EIA; Rystad, LCI Energy Insight
                                                                                                                        6
2
     Supply innovation: Oil & gas (II)
    The boom was enabled by innovative well technologies

                                                                                                                                                                     Horizontal drilling...

                                                                                                                         Forecast
        Footage drilled (mil)
        Surface to TD 1                                     Financial crisis &
        400                                                  drop in oil price                                                                 396
                                                                                                                                                       Other
                                                                       340                   334
                                                                                                                                                       Vertical
        300


                                                                               219




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        200
              149                                                                                                                                                 ...and hydraulic fracturing
                                                                                                                                               70% Horizontal

        100                                                                                  57%


                                                                       22% 35%

          0    5%
                                    2003

                                           2004




                                                                        2008




                                                                                                    2012

                                                                                                           2013




                                                                                                                                        2017
               2000

                      2001

                             2002




                                                  2005

                                                         2006

                                                                2007



                                                                               2009

                                                                                      2010

                                                                                             2011




                                                                                                                  2014

                                                                                                                          2015

                                                                                                                                 2016



                                                                                                                                                2018




    1. TD: total depth
    Source: Spears and Associates
                                                                                                                                                                                                7
2
    Supply innovation: Renewables (I)
    The challenge: becoming cost effective without subsidies
    Levelised cost of electricity €ct/kWh1
    20


                                                                                                                                                             16-18
                                                                                                                                       16,0

    15
                                                                                                                                                 13,5




    10
                                                                   9,0                                                 9,0
                                                  8,0
                                                                                     7,0              7,0
                (?) 2            6,5
                                                                                                                                       13,0                               wholesale
                                                                                                                                                 11-12




                                                                                                                                                                                            Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
      5                                                                                                                                                                 electr. price
                                                                                                                       7-9                                    7-8
                5,5                               5,5              6,0                                5-6
                                 5,0

      0
             Nuclear           Lignite        Hard coal           CCGT          R-o-r hydro         Wind           Biomass            Biogas     Wind      PV utility
                                                                                 (< 5MW)           onshore                                      offshore    scale4
                                Conventional                                                                           Renewables
                                                                                                                                                 2010 20203
                                                                                                                                                              (Increasing up)
                             Fuel Poverty a highly important issue in the UK. How to
                             balance energy costs and the demand for renewables?                                                                              (Decreasing down)


    1. Including financing at 5% WACC, CapEx, O&M and CO2 cost 2. Effects of increasing safety requirements in the future not yet foreseeable
    3. Assumed annual cost increase for coal and gas: 2% for O&M and 5% for fuel and CO2 cost 4. Average European insolation level
    Note: Calculations do not include additional transmission or storage capacity for stabilizing intermittent renew ables
    Sources: IEA (2010); Fraunhofer ISE (2010); EPIA (2010); IRE Univ. Stuttgart (2008); BMWi; BCG analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                        8
2
    Supply innovation: Renewables (II)
    Wind and Solar costs are falling continuously

                      Wind turbine price index,                                                                  The Solar PV module experience curve,
                             1984–2011                                                                                         1976–2012
          Log (M€/MW)                                                                                      Log (M€/MW)
          10                                                                                               100.0
                                                                                                                               1976
                                                                                                                                           s = 0.79


                                                                                                                                                 1985
                                                                                                             10.0
                             s = 0.95
                                                                                                                                                                 2003          - 93%




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
                     1984
                                       1990                                                                                 s = 0.89
                                                                           -48%                                                     2006
                                                             2004                                             1.0                                                                    2012
                                                  2000                                                                                                                    - 56%
                                                                                                                                                                2012
                                                                          2011

            1                                                                                                 0.1
             100              1,000             10,000           100,000           1,000,000                        1          10          100       1,000      10,000      100,000 1,000,000
                                                                                 Log (MW)                                                                                            Log (MW)
                     Historic prices           Experience curve                                                          Historic prices

                s= price index as cumulative volume doubles 1                                                            Chinese c-Si module prices                      Experience curve
                                                                                                                         First solar thin-film module cost               Thin-film experience curve
    1. S: price index as cumulative volume doubles; S= 0.95 means as cumulative volume doubles, price drops to 95% of before
    Note: WTPI is w ind turbine price index, WTPI excl comm is adjusted for commodity prices 2002–10, Inflation adjustment using US PPI, R2 of c-Si regression = 0.94, R2 of FSLR regression = 0.98
    Source: Bloomberg new energy finance; Extool; Law rence Berkeley laboratory; FSLR filings
                                                                                                                                                                                                      9
2
    Supply innovation: Generation efficiency
    Efficiency of fossil fuel power generation has increased

      Increased efficiency of fossil fired                                                                                ...and increased efficiency of
        generation in major economies                                Increase in gas role in fuel mix...                    gas-fired power generation

     Efficiency, fossil-fired generation (%)                       Gas share of all fossil-fired generation (%)      Efficiency, gas-fired generation (%)
     50                                                            60                                                55
                                                                                                      UK & Ireland                                     UK & Ireland
                                                                   50                                                50                                Germany
     45                                             UK & Ireland
                                                                                                                                                       US

                                                                   40                                                45
                                                    Germany
     40




                                                                                                                                                                      Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
                                                    US
                                                                   30                                                40
                                                                                                      US
     35
                                                    China
                                                                   20                                 Germany        35

     30
                                                                   10                                                30

                                                                                                      China
     25                                                             0                                                25
       1990       1995      2000       2005         2010            1990    1995     2000    2005    2010             1990    1995    2000    2005    2010



                                                     Continued switching to natural-gas fired power
                                                       generation will drive efficiency increases
    Source: Ecofys, Mitsubishi Research Institute
                                                                                                                                                               10
2
    Supply innovation: Nuclear power
    Despite technological evolution, nuclear faces challenges

         Generation I                           Generation II                        Generation III                        Generation III+              Generation IV

          Early prototype                      Commercial power                           Advanced
                                                                                                                         Evolutionary Designs          Nuclear Alternatives
             reactors                             reactors                                 LWRs




                                                                                                                                                               ?




                                                                                                                                                                                   Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
    • Shippingport                         •   LWR-PWR,                          •   ABWR                               • EPR                         • Liquid metal-
    • Dresden, Fermi I                     •   BWR                               •   System 80+                         • ESBWR                         cooled reactors
    • Calder Hall/                         •   CANDU                             •   CANDU-6                            • AP-1000                     • Traveling-wave
      Magnox                               •   VVER/RBMK                         •   AP600                                                              reactors

                   Gen I                                        Gen II                                     Gen III                         Gen III+           Gen IV

       1950               1960                 1970              1980                1990              2000               2010               2020      2030



                                      Technology offers improved safety, security and efficiency,
                                         but Fukushima disaster a clear setback for nuclear
    Source: American Academy of Arts and Sciences "Nuclear Rectors, Generation to Generation", Argonne National Laboratory, US Department of Energy
                                                                                                                                                                              11
2
    Supply innovation: Emerging technologies
    Emerging technologies are progressing very slowly


               Technology                                        Functioning         Proven application         Current impediment
                                                           • Pre-combustion          • Pre-combustion (in       • Costs: powergen costs
                                                             capture                   gas processing)            increase by up to 75%
       CCS                                                 • Post-combustion            – Sleipner &            • Delays to commercial-
                                                             (scrubbing)                  Snøhvit,                scale power plant
                                                           • Oxy-fuel combustion          Norway                  demonstration projects


                                                           • Barrier / Fence:        • Utility scale only for   • Other technologies




                                                                                                                                              Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
                                                             block current             tidal barrier:             only small scale /
                                                           • Turbines: absorb            – France 240MW,          prototype phase
      Tidal                                                  current                        Rance River         • Barriers / fence require
                                                           • Oscillating: absorb            (1966)                special geo. conditions
                                                             current with aerofoil

                                                           • "Pelamis" snake         • Large (non-utility)      • Proof of concept for
                                                             module: waves             scale:                     utility scale still
      Wave                                                   induce hydraulic           – 2.25MW                  missing
                                                             movement driving a           Aguçadoura,
                                                             generator                    Portugal


    Source: Global CCS Institute, "The Global Status of CCS: 2012", BCG Research
                                                                                                                                         12
3
    Energy efficiency: Savings potential
    Efficiency Potential in EU Energy Demand
       EU energy demand
       savings potential (Mtoe)

                                                                                        -42%
       1,250              1,188

                                                      187
       1,000               26%
                                                                              156
                                                                                                  88
          750                                                                                                  71          686
                           32%

          500
                                                                                                                                     Domestic




                                                                                                                                                  Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
                           29%
                                                                                                                                     Transport
          250
                                                                                                                                     Industrial
                           13%                                                                                                       Services
             0
                      Baseline                    Domestic                  Transport          Industrial   Services     Reduced
                    2030 demand                                                                                        2030 demand




                                                                   Efficiency savings potential by sector

                                                    Domestic and Transport sectors offer greatest
                                                      potential for EU energy efficiency savings
    Source: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Germany; Fraunhofer ISI
                                                                                                                                             13
3
    Energy efficiency: Domestic sector
    Major scope for improvement in domestic sector

           The biggest efficiency savings lie with                                                               ...and the elements and materials needed to
         refurbishing & updating existing buildings                                                                 upgrade existing buildings already exist

                                                                                                                                         1
                                                                                                                                 10          6                 7
                                                                                                                         5
       Efficient lighting                  5%


       Electric appliances                   6%                                                                      8


       Sanitary hot water                       7%                                                                                                                               2




                                                                                                                                                                                          Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
       New buildings                            20%
                                                                                                                     9                             4                         3
       Exist. buildings - heating                        23%
                                                                                                                             1 Fenestration1           6   Ducts (HVAC)
       Exist. buildings - refurb.                                      41%
                                                                                                                             2 Doors                   7   Ceiling

       Total potential savings                                                      187                                      3 Fencing                 8   Siding

                                                                                                                             4 Pipes                   9   Metallic Frames
                                      0           50        100         150         200
                                                                                                                             5   Blind and shade       10 Roofing
                                          Energy demand, savings potential (Mtoe)


                                            Efficiency improvements on buildings could also have
                                                    wider implications on fuel poverty issue
    1. Fenestration include w indows and curtain walls
    Source: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Germany; Fraunhofer ISI; Electro Magazine; EAA; BCG analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                     14
3
    Efficiency: Transport (I)
    Carmakers have achieved major efficiency advances




                              1972 BMW 520i                                    2012 BMW 520i


                  More powerful...                      ...heavier...            ...and more economical




                                                                                                                  Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
          Power (HP)                          Weight (kg)                       Fuel Efficiency (mpg)
         200               +31%               2,000             +31%            60
                                                                                               +45%
         150                                  1,500
                                                                                40
         100                                  1,000
                                  170                                  1,635
                    130                                 1,250                   20                    41.5
           50                                  500                                      28.5

             0                                    0                              0
                    1972          2010                  1972           2010            1972           2010

    Source: BMW
                                                                                                             15
3
    Efficiency: Transport (II)
    Many competing vehicle technologies are emerging
                                            Conventional                                     Diesel, hybrid, electric
                    Aerodynamics            ICE technology                   ICE technology                              Electric
                                                              Transmission                           Hybrid
                      and mass                (Gasoline)                         (Diesel)                                vehicle




    Levers         • Design            • Vaporization     • Better automation • Vaporization and • Power train    • Battery and
                     optimization        and combustion of transmission         combustion         technology       power
                     (resistance         optimization     • Continuous          optimization     • Battery and      management
                     coefficient and   • Reduction of       variable          • Reduction of       power            technology
                                                                                                                  • Recharging




                                                                                                                                          Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
                     front area)         energy loss        transmission        energy loss        management
                   • Tire optimization   (pump, friction, • Double clutch      (pump, friction,    technology       infrastructure
                                         heat)                                  heat)
                                       • Lower weight

    CO2
    emission
                          ~10-11%                ~40%           ~5-10%            -40%                -65%               -100%
    reduction
    potential


    Cost per
                            ~$ 600           ~$ 2,000-2,500    ~$ 100-200        ~ $ 4,000          ~ $ 5,000           $ 10, 000
    vehicle



    Note: ICE: Internal combustion engine
                                                                                                                                     16
3
    Efficiency: Transport (II)
    Higher oil prices drive more efficient vehicle choices
                        49 mpg                                                                                                                       Larger personal vehicles1
                                        Fuel efficiency (mpg)                                                                            share of light vehicle production (%)
                                        24
                                                                                                                                                                           45
                                                                                 Fuel efficiency (mpg)
                                        22
                                                                                                                                                                           40

                      20 mpg            20
                                                                                                                                                                           35

                                        18                                                                                                                                 30


                                        16                                                 Large personal vehicle production share (%)                                     25




                                                                                                                                                                                 Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
                                        14                                                                                                                                 20


                                        12                                                                                                                                 15
                       11 mpg
                                              1975               1980               1985                1990               1995        2000          2005         2010
                                               • Oil crisis               • Prolonged period of lower fuel prices                                  • Oil price rises
                                               • Dramatic rise            • Rising share of inefficient trucks in US light vehicle                 • Buying shifts to
                                                 in fleet fuel              fleet                                                                    greater efficiency
                                                 efficiency


                                                          Not just about technology: efficiency impact affected
                                                               by energy prices and regulatory framework
    1. Larger personal vehicles includes: Pick ups, passenger vans and large SUVs. Small 2 w heel drive SUVs are categorized as cars
    Source: EPA
                                                                                                                                                                            17
4
    Policy & Partnership: Kyoto
    Kyoto process has failed to curtail global CO2 emissions
                                                                               Variation CO2 emissions 1                      (1990-2009)


                                   Decrease                               Increase

                          China                                                                                                                       5,437


                    Middle East                                                           958


                         LatAm                                                    496


                           USA                                                 384




                                                                                                                                                                       Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
          Kyoto bound




                          Japan                                           51


                         Europe                             -238


                        Russia2                         -464


                              -2,000                                  0                                  2,000                                4,000       6,000
                                                                                                                                                       Mt CO2

                                                                Top-down global policy alone will not
                                                                 solve the world's energy challenge
    1. IEA estimates only include emissions from fossil fuel combustion. 2. Decrease due to the partial closure of Soviet Union's industry.
    Source: IEA emissions database, World Resources Institute
                                                                                                                                                                  18
4
    Policy & Partnership: Investment
    Need for financing new energy is larger and more complex

                                                        Global new investment in renewables
                     (US$bn)
                     300
                                                                                                              Government R&D
                                                                                                       258
                                                                                                              Corporate R&D
                                                                                                       10     VC/PE
                                                                                                220
                                                                                                              Public markets
                     200                                                  CAGR:
                                                                          +31%                         76     Small distributed capacity
                                                                                  167    161




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                                                                   133


                                                          97
                     100
                                                                                                       158    Asset finance1
                                                 61
                                  39



                        0
                                2004             2005    2006      2007           2008   2009   2010   2011




                                         Challenge for industry and governments is to ensure
                                           capital directed towards most effective solutions
    1. Adjusted for re-invested equity
    Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNEP
                                                                                                                                19
4
    Policy & Partnership: Investment
    Financing new energy is increasingly challenging


            Utilities and commercial banks only capable to                       Can financial investors be attracted in
                  finance ~58% of required investments                             sufficient scale to close the gap?

                GW
                      40

                                 6
                                                18
                                                             Balance sheet
                                                8            financing

                                                4            Project




                                                                                                                                                  Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
                                                3            financing
                                                3

                                                                                  ?


                                                                    17                            ?

                                                                                                                   ?
                                                                                                                                  ?

                   40 GW       Already    Additional trad.         Gap       Direct equity   Project bonds   Public equity   Remaining gap
                  EU target   financed   funding sources           2020        investors


         PF equity                          Investment decision will depend on
         PF comm. banks
                                         risk-return-profile of wind offshore parks
         PF public banks

    Source: BCG analysis
                                                                                                                                             20
Conclusions

1                 • The global energy system faces a range of fundamental challenges
      Global         – Rising demand, constrained supply and environmental issues
    Challenges    • These challenges can only be met by sustained action on multiple fronts
                     – Including both new sources of supply, and more efficient consumption


2                 • Innovation is extending the frontiers of energy supply
      Supply:         – Major advances are transforming prospects for natural gas and renewables
    innovation    • Other technologies remain promising, but lack investment momentum
                     – Nuclear faces challenges post-Fukushima; CCS awaits commercial testing




                                                                                                          Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed.
3                 • Energy efficiency has great potential to reduce demand and emissions
    Demand:          – Particular scope to achieve savings in domestic and transport sectors
    efficiency    • However, implementation of efficiency measures remains challenging
                     – Perverse incentives have undermined policy aims in the past


4                 • Global-level policy alone is not solving the world's energy challenges
     Policy &        – World-wide attempts to curtail carbon emissions have so far failed
    Partnership   • The outlook is challenging, but significant scope for progress
                     – Public-private partnership to align incentives through efficient regulation




                                                                                                     21
Energy efficiency, innovation and technology
Solving the global energy challenge

Dr Ivan Marten
Global Leader Energy Practice

November 30, 2012

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Solving the global energy challenge with energy efficiency, innovation and technology

  • 1. Energy efficiency, innovation and technology Solving the global energy challenge Dr Ivan Marten Global Leader Energy Practice November 30, 2012
  • 2. Solving the global energy challenge 1 Global • The global energy system faces a range of fundamental challenges Challenges 2 Supply: • Innovation and technology are extending the frontiers of supply innovation Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 3 Demand: • Improvements in efficiency can have a major impact on demand efficiency 4 Policy & • Effective public-private partnership needed to ensure progress Partnership 1
  • 3. 1 Energy challenges: Demand growth Global energy demand will continue rising fast Global demand will rise 47% to 2035, with Non-OECD demand will rise 76% to 2035, non-OECD countries driving about 90% of this driven by China and India Primary energy Primary energy demand (Btoe1) +47% demand (Btoe) 20 15 +76% 18.2 17.0 12.2 14.9 11.2 15 12.4 10 9.3 4.4 67% 4.1 66% Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 10 62% 7.0 3.5 8.6 1.7 56% 1.4 2.4 47% 5 1.0 4.1 0.7 5 0.9 0.3 0 0 1990 2010 2020 2030 2035 1990 2010 2020 2030 2035 NON OECD OECD China Other Asia Mid. East & Africa India Latin America E. Europe/Eurasia 91% of new growth is forecasted to come from non-OECD countries 1. Btoe: billion tonne of oil equivalent Source: IEA WEO 2011 – Current Policies Scenario, UK Department of Energy and Climate Change 2
  • 4. 1 Energy challenges: Supply constraints Today's energy sources will struggle to meet rising demand Forecast oil production reliant on ...but volumes discovered have declined production from "yet-to-find" fields... significantly in recent decades Total resources discovered on World oil production (M bbl/d1) conventional oil fields (B bbls2) 394 100 400 Field size: Yet-to-find 10-100 M bbls (crude) 80 100-1000 M bbls Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. Unconv. oil 300 1-10 B bbls >10 B bbls 60 NGLs 200 40 115 Discovered 100 20 (crude) 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1900s 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 2000s 1. bbl/d: billion barrels per day 2. Data is for Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) of conventional oil fields only Source: IEA, Rystad UCube, BCG Analysis 3
  • 5. 1 Energy challenges: Environmental Meeting climate challenge requires action on many fronts Worldwide annual CO2 emissions "New Supply Demand (billion MT3) Policies" initiatives initiatives 50 +50% -50% 14 43 7 40 36 3 +38% 4 29 1 30 7 21 22 Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 20 Emission reduction levers 10 0 1990 2009 Increase 2035 Savings 2035 CCS Renewables 2 Nuclear Energy 2035 without "New "Current with "New "New efficiency "450 Policies" Policies Policies 1 " Policies Scenario" Scenario" Scenario" Meeting the climate challenge necessitates action on both the supply and demand side 1. New Policies Scenario assumes policies announced to date are implemented 2. Renew ables including Biofuels 3. MT: million ton Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 4
  • 6. 2 1 Supply innovation Our energy supplies aim to balance three objectives 1 • The relative economics of our alternative energy sources Cost - Finding, development, production and transport costs 2 • The availability of these sources Availability - Both on an absolute level – do we have enough? Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. - ...and on a national level, to support energy independence 3 Sustainability • Their relative environmental, health and social impacts All sources have advantages and drawbacks; our energy mix results from the trade-offs we choose 5
  • 7. 2 Supply innovation: Oil & gas (I) Innovation has created a shale gas boom in the US US Shale gas production US Natural gas price (Bcf/d2) Henry Hub ($/MMBtu1) 25 24.4 10 8.9 US natural gas 8.7 total: 69bcf/d 20 8 15 6 Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 10 4 2.5 5 2 1.4 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E US shale gas production US natural gas price 1.MMBtu: million British Thermal Unit, 1BTU = 1.055 kjoules. 2012 Henry Hub gas price is YTD average 2.bcf/d: billion cubic feet per day Source: EIA; Rystad, LCI Energy Insight 6
  • 8. 2 Supply innovation: Oil & gas (II) The boom was enabled by innovative well technologies Horizontal drilling... Forecast Footage drilled (mil) Surface to TD 1 Financial crisis & 400 drop in oil price 396 Other 340 334 Vertical 300 219 Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 200 149 ...and hydraulic fracturing 70% Horizontal 100 57% 22% 35% 0 5% 2003 2004 2008 2012 2013 2017 2000 2001 2002 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 2018 1. TD: total depth Source: Spears and Associates 7
  • 9. 2 Supply innovation: Renewables (I) The challenge: becoming cost effective without subsidies Levelised cost of electricity €ct/kWh1 20 16-18 16,0 15 13,5 10 9,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 7,0 (?) 2 6,5 13,0 wholesale 11-12 Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 5 electr. price 7-9 7-8 5,5 5,5 6,0 5-6 5,0 0 Nuclear Lignite Hard coal CCGT R-o-r hydro Wind Biomass Biogas Wind PV utility (< 5MW) onshore offshore scale4 Conventional Renewables 2010 20203 (Increasing up) Fuel Poverty a highly important issue in the UK. How to balance energy costs and the demand for renewables? (Decreasing down) 1. Including financing at 5% WACC, CapEx, O&M and CO2 cost 2. Effects of increasing safety requirements in the future not yet foreseeable 3. Assumed annual cost increase for coal and gas: 2% for O&M and 5% for fuel and CO2 cost 4. Average European insolation level Note: Calculations do not include additional transmission or storage capacity for stabilizing intermittent renew ables Sources: IEA (2010); Fraunhofer ISE (2010); EPIA (2010); IRE Univ. Stuttgart (2008); BMWi; BCG analysis 8
  • 10. 2 Supply innovation: Renewables (II) Wind and Solar costs are falling continuously Wind turbine price index, The Solar PV module experience curve, 1984–2011 1976–2012 Log (M€/MW) Log (M€/MW) 10 100.0 1976 s = 0.79 1985 10.0 s = 0.95 2003 - 93% Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 1984 1990 s = 0.89 -48% 2006 2004 1.0 2012 2000 - 56% 2012 2011 1 0.1 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Log (MW) Log (MW) Historic prices Experience curve Historic prices s= price index as cumulative volume doubles 1 Chinese c-Si module prices Experience curve First solar thin-film module cost Thin-film experience curve 1. S: price index as cumulative volume doubles; S= 0.95 means as cumulative volume doubles, price drops to 95% of before Note: WTPI is w ind turbine price index, WTPI excl comm is adjusted for commodity prices 2002–10, Inflation adjustment using US PPI, R2 of c-Si regression = 0.94, R2 of FSLR regression = 0.98 Source: Bloomberg new energy finance; Extool; Law rence Berkeley laboratory; FSLR filings 9
  • 11. 2 Supply innovation: Generation efficiency Efficiency of fossil fuel power generation has increased Increased efficiency of fossil fired ...and increased efficiency of generation in major economies Increase in gas role in fuel mix... gas-fired power generation Efficiency, fossil-fired generation (%) Gas share of all fossil-fired generation (%) Efficiency, gas-fired generation (%) 50 60 55 UK & Ireland UK & Ireland 50 50 Germany 45 UK & Ireland US 40 45 Germany 40 Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. US 30 40 US 35 China 20 Germany 35 30 10 30 China 25 0 25 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Continued switching to natural-gas fired power generation will drive efficiency increases Source: Ecofys, Mitsubishi Research Institute 10
  • 12. 2 Supply innovation: Nuclear power Despite technological evolution, nuclear faces challenges Generation I Generation II Generation III Generation III+ Generation IV Early prototype Commercial power Advanced Evolutionary Designs Nuclear Alternatives reactors reactors LWRs ? Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. • Shippingport • LWR-PWR, • ABWR • EPR • Liquid metal- • Dresden, Fermi I • BWR • System 80+ • ESBWR cooled reactors • Calder Hall/ • CANDU • CANDU-6 • AP-1000 • Traveling-wave Magnox • VVER/RBMK • AP600 reactors Gen I Gen II Gen III Gen III+ Gen IV 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Technology offers improved safety, security and efficiency, but Fukushima disaster a clear setback for nuclear Source: American Academy of Arts and Sciences "Nuclear Rectors, Generation to Generation", Argonne National Laboratory, US Department of Energy 11
  • 13. 2 Supply innovation: Emerging technologies Emerging technologies are progressing very slowly Technology Functioning Proven application Current impediment • Pre-combustion • Pre-combustion (in • Costs: powergen costs capture gas processing) increase by up to 75% CCS • Post-combustion – Sleipner & • Delays to commercial- (scrubbing) Snøhvit, scale power plant • Oxy-fuel combustion Norway demonstration projects • Barrier / Fence: • Utility scale only for • Other technologies Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. block current tidal barrier: only small scale / • Turbines: absorb – France 240MW, prototype phase Tidal current Rance River • Barriers / fence require • Oscillating: absorb (1966) special geo. conditions current with aerofoil • "Pelamis" snake • Large (non-utility) • Proof of concept for module: waves scale: utility scale still Wave induce hydraulic – 2.25MW missing movement driving a Aguçadoura, generator Portugal Source: Global CCS Institute, "The Global Status of CCS: 2012", BCG Research 12
  • 14. 3 Energy efficiency: Savings potential Efficiency Potential in EU Energy Demand EU energy demand savings potential (Mtoe) -42% 1,250 1,188 187 1,000 26% 156 88 750 71 686 32% 500 Domestic Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 29% Transport 250 Industrial 13% Services 0 Baseline Domestic Transport Industrial Services Reduced 2030 demand 2030 demand Efficiency savings potential by sector Domestic and Transport sectors offer greatest potential for EU energy efficiency savings Source: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Germany; Fraunhofer ISI 13
  • 15. 3 Energy efficiency: Domestic sector Major scope for improvement in domestic sector The biggest efficiency savings lie with ...and the elements and materials needed to refurbishing & updating existing buildings upgrade existing buildings already exist 1 10 6 7 5 Efficient lighting 5% Electric appliances 6% 8 Sanitary hot water 7% 2 Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. New buildings 20% 9 4 3 Exist. buildings - heating 23% 1 Fenestration1 6 Ducts (HVAC) Exist. buildings - refurb. 41% 2 Doors 7 Ceiling Total potential savings 187 3 Fencing 8 Siding 4 Pipes 9 Metallic Frames 0 50 100 150 200 5 Blind and shade 10 Roofing Energy demand, savings potential (Mtoe) Efficiency improvements on buildings could also have wider implications on fuel poverty issue 1. Fenestration include w indows and curtain walls Source: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Germany; Fraunhofer ISI; Electro Magazine; EAA; BCG analysis 14
  • 16. 3 Efficiency: Transport (I) Carmakers have achieved major efficiency advances 1972 BMW 520i 2012 BMW 520i More powerful... ...heavier... ...and more economical Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. Power (HP) Weight (kg) Fuel Efficiency (mpg) 200 +31% 2,000 +31% 60 +45% 150 1,500 40 100 1,000 170 1,635 130 1,250 20 41.5 50 500 28.5 0 0 0 1972 2010 1972 2010 1972 2010 Source: BMW 15
  • 17. 3 Efficiency: Transport (II) Many competing vehicle technologies are emerging Conventional Diesel, hybrid, electric Aerodynamics ICE technology ICE technology Electric Transmission Hybrid and mass (Gasoline) (Diesel) vehicle Levers • Design • Vaporization • Better automation • Vaporization and • Power train • Battery and optimization and combustion of transmission combustion technology power (resistance optimization • Continuous optimization • Battery and management coefficient and • Reduction of variable • Reduction of power technology • Recharging Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. front area) energy loss transmission energy loss management • Tire optimization (pump, friction, • Double clutch (pump, friction, technology infrastructure heat) heat) • Lower weight CO2 emission ~10-11% ~40% ~5-10% -40% -65% -100% reduction potential Cost per ~$ 600 ~$ 2,000-2,500 ~$ 100-200 ~ $ 4,000 ~ $ 5,000 $ 10, 000 vehicle Note: ICE: Internal combustion engine 16
  • 18. 3 Efficiency: Transport (II) Higher oil prices drive more efficient vehicle choices 49 mpg Larger personal vehicles1 Fuel efficiency (mpg) share of light vehicle production (%) 24 45 Fuel efficiency (mpg) 22 40 20 mpg 20 35 18 30 16 Large personal vehicle production share (%) 25 Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 14 20 12 15 11 mpg 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 • Oil crisis • Prolonged period of lower fuel prices • Oil price rises • Dramatic rise • Rising share of inefficient trucks in US light vehicle • Buying shifts to in fleet fuel fleet greater efficiency efficiency Not just about technology: efficiency impact affected by energy prices and regulatory framework 1. Larger personal vehicles includes: Pick ups, passenger vans and large SUVs. Small 2 w heel drive SUVs are categorized as cars Source: EPA 17
  • 19. 4 Policy & Partnership: Kyoto Kyoto process has failed to curtail global CO2 emissions Variation CO2 emissions 1 (1990-2009) Decrease Increase China 5,437 Middle East 958 LatAm 496 USA 384 Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. Kyoto bound Japan 51 Europe -238 Russia2 -464 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Mt CO2 Top-down global policy alone will not solve the world's energy challenge 1. IEA estimates only include emissions from fossil fuel combustion. 2. Decrease due to the partial closure of Soviet Union's industry. Source: IEA emissions database, World Resources Institute 18
  • 20. 4 Policy & Partnership: Investment Need for financing new energy is larger and more complex Global new investment in renewables (US$bn) 300 Government R&D 258 Corporate R&D 10 VC/PE 220 Public markets 200 CAGR: +31% 76 Small distributed capacity 167 161 Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 133 97 100 158 Asset finance1 61 39 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Challenge for industry and governments is to ensure capital directed towards most effective solutions 1. Adjusted for re-invested equity Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNEP 19
  • 21. 4 Policy & Partnership: Investment Financing new energy is increasingly challenging Utilities and commercial banks only capable to Can financial investors be attracted in finance ~58% of required investments sufficient scale to close the gap? GW 40 6 18 Balance sheet 8 financing 4 Project Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 3 financing 3 ? 17 ? ? ? 40 GW Already Additional trad. Gap Direct equity Project bonds Public equity Remaining gap EU target financed funding sources 2020 investors PF equity Investment decision will depend on PF comm. banks risk-return-profile of wind offshore parks PF public banks Source: BCG analysis 20
  • 22. Conclusions 1 • The global energy system faces a range of fundamental challenges Global – Rising demand, constrained supply and environmental issues Challenges • These challenges can only be met by sustained action on multiple fronts – Including both new sources of supply, and more efficient consumption 2 • Innovation is extending the frontiers of energy supply Supply: – Major advances are transforming prospects for natural gas and renewables innovation • Other technologies remain promising, but lack investment momentum – Nuclear faces challenges post-Fukushima; CCS awaits commercial testing Copy right © 2012 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserv ed. 3 • Energy efficiency has great potential to reduce demand and emissions Demand: – Particular scope to achieve savings in domestic and transport sectors efficiency • However, implementation of efficiency measures remains challenging – Perverse incentives have undermined policy aims in the past 4 • Global-level policy alone is not solving the world's energy challenges Policy & – World-wide attempts to curtail carbon emissions have so far failed Partnership • The outlook is challenging, but significant scope for progress – Public-private partnership to align incentives through efficient regulation 21
  • 23. Energy efficiency, innovation and technology Solving the global energy challenge Dr Ivan Marten Global Leader Energy Practice November 30, 2012