This document summarizes the key drivers of peak electricity demand on Ausgrid's electricity distribution network in New South Wales, Australia. It finds that peak demand is primarily driven by weather conditions, with higher peaks occurring in summer months due to increased air conditioning use. Residential customers account for over half of peak demand, with air conditioning use increasing residential loads by over 200% on peak days. Medium and large business customers can also significantly impact peaks, with their demand varying in response to wholesale electricity prices. Understanding customer class contributions and load profiles is important for network investment planning to meet peak demand growth.

1. Analysing the drivers of peak demand
Smart Utilities Conference 2012
22 November 2012
Robert Simpson, Demand Management

2. Overview
1. Energy versus peak demand
2. Seasonal, weather and day type effects
3. Customer segment contributions
4. Peak demand on network assets
5. Summary

3. Who is Ausgrid?
Our network
• Electricity distribution network for
the eastern Sydney, Central
Coast and Hunter regions
• Over 1.6 million customers (1.4
million residential)
• Area of more than 22,000 km2
• Network infrastructure includes
substations, poles, wires and
metering equipment

4. Energy vs peak demand
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14000
NSWDemand(MW)
Time
NSW summer demand (24 January 2011 to 13 February 2011)
NSW summer peak demand of 14,580MW
1 February (5 to 5:30pm, AEDST)
Shaded area respresents energy
used during the 3 week period

5. Historical trends in energy and peak demand
5
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Growthsince2002
Ausgrid Summer Peak Demand and Annual Energy
Peak Demand
Annual Energy

6. Winter and summer peak demand
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SystemLoad(MW)
Time
AusgridSystem Load Profile -
Top five summer and winter peak days
Peak Day 1 (Thu 3 Feb 2011) Peak Day 2 (Tue 1 Feb 2011)
Peak Day 3 (Wed 2 Feb 2011) Peak Day 4 (Fri 4 Feb 2011)
Peak Day 5 (Mon 31 Jan 2011) Peak Day 1 (Tue 29 Jun 2010)
Peak Day 2 (Wed 30 Jun 2010) Peak Day 3 (Fri 2 Jul 2010)
Peak Day 4 (Thu 22 Jul 2010) Peak Day 5 (Mon 28 Jun 2010)

7. Weekly view of peak demand
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0
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SystemLoad(MW)
Time
Ausgrid system load
Ausgrid System Load (MW)
Peak Summer Week Following WeekBefore Week

8. Weekends and Waltzing Matilda
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SystemLoad(MW)
Time
Ausgrid system load
Ausgrid System Load (MW)
Peak Summer Week Following WeekBefore Week
Australia Day
(Wednesday)
Weekends

9. Weather (week to week)
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DegreesCelsius
SystemLoad(MW)
Time
Ausgrid system load
Ausgrid System Load (MW) Temperature (Sydney Olympic Park)
Peak Summer Week Following WeekBefore Week
Peak Day

10. Weather (day to day)
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DegreesCelsius
SystemLoad(MW)
Time
Ausgrid system load
Ausgrid System Load (MW) Temperature (Sydney Olympic Park)
WeekendWorking Week

11. Using customer interval data
• Ausgrid has over 430,000 customers with interval
meters recording data at least every half hour
• A single data stream of 30-minute interval data
stores 17,520 data records in a year
• Since 2004 Ausgrid’s policy is to install electronic
interval meters for new and replacement meters
11
Customer class Total
customers
Interval
meters (%)
Medium to large business
(>160MWh pa)
~13,000 100%
Small business ~173,000 53%
Residential ~1,457,000 23%
Total ~1,643,000 27%

12. Customer contribution to summer peak
12
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Ausgridsystemload(MW)
Time (AEDST)
Technical losses and unmetered
Residential and small business
Controlled Load (domestic hot water)
Medium to Large business (LV, >160Mwh pa)
Very large business (HV)
44% of system
peak
51% of system
peak

13. Very large business
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NSWPoolPrice($/MWh)
TotalLoad(MW)
Time (AEDST)
High voltage and CRNP customers
Load (MW) - Peak Day Thu 3 Feb 2011
Load (MW) - Following Thu 10 Feb 2011
NSW Pool Price - Peak Day Thu 3 Feb 2011
Large
customers can
respond directly
to pool price

14. Medium to large business
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0:00
TotalLoad(MW)
Time (AEDST)
Low voltage medium to large business (>160MWh pa)
Load (MW) - Peak Day Thu 3 Feb 2011
Load (MW) - Following Thu 10 Feb 2011
Increase in load
of 17%

15. Small business
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800
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TotalLoad(MW)
Time (AEDST)
Sample of small business (71,000 customers)
Load (MW) - Peak Day Thu 3 Feb 2011
Load (MW) - Following Thu 10 Feb 2011
Increase in load
of 19%

16. Residential
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100
200
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800
0:30
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20:30
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21:30
22:00
22:30
23:00
23:30
0:00
TotalLoad(MW)
Time (AEDST)
Sample of residential (250,000 customers)
Load (MW) - Peak Day Thu 3 Feb 2011
Load (MW) - Following Thu 10 Feb 2011
Increase in load
of 147%

17. Diversity of customer loads
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Load(averagekWinhalfhour)
Time (AEDST)
Individual residential load profiles on 3 Feb 2011
Customer 1 Customer 2 Customer 3 Customer 4 Customer 5 Average (sample of 250,000)

18. Residential air conditioners
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100
1974/75
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1988/89
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1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
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2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
2017-18
2019-20
Penetration%
Residential air-conditioners
Australian ownership % to 2011 & extrapolation 2012-2020
Data source: ABS (Environmental Issues: Energy use and Conservation, March 2011)

19. Residential air conditioners
19
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
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22:00
22:30
23:00
23:30
0:00
Time (AEDST)
Sample of ~2,300 new homes with air conditioning
Load (kW) - Peak Day Thu 3 Feb 2011
Load (kW) - Following Thu 10 Feb 2011
Increase in
load of 221%

20. Network investment drivers
20
Peak demand growth is a key network investment driver
• Around ¾ of zones have peak demand growth >1% per year
• Around ¾ of zone substations are summer peaking (¼ winter peaking)
Other significant investment drivers
• Replacement of aged assets
• New connections and expansion of the network
• Meeting reliability and performance standards
• Meeting safety, environmental or other legislative obligations.

21. Zone substation diversity
21
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Load
Time
Inner West Sydney Zone Substation (Predominantly Residential- Winter Peaking)
Summer 1
Summer2
Summer3
Summer4
Summer5
Winter 1
Winter 2
Winter 3
Winter 4
Winter 5
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
11:00
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Load
Time
Inland Hunter Region Zone Substation (Summer peaking)
Winter 1
Winter 2
Winter 3
Winter 4
Winter 5
Summer 1
Summer2
Summer3
Summer4
Summer5
Winter peak 40% higher
than summer peak
Summer peak 20% higher
than winter peak

22. Zone substation load shapes
22
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ALEXANDRIA
WYONG132KV
CROWSNEST
GWAWLEYBAY
LAKEMUNMORAH
PEATSRIDGE
SEFTON
BEROWRA
CAMPSIE
CARLTON
CHATSWOOD
DEEWHY_WEST
HORNSBY
LISAROW
MIRANDA
MORTDALE
PYMBLE
ST.IVES
WOYWOY
NARRABEEN
ENFIELD
JANNALI
MARRICKVILLE
SANSSOUCI
DRUMMOYNE
PADDINGTON
ARNCLIFFE
DULWICHHILL
WAVERLEY
ROSEBAY
BELROSE
MANLY
NEWPORT
98%-100%
95%-98%
93%-95%
90%-93%
88%-90%
85%-88%
83%-85%
80%-83%
78%-80%
75%-78%
73%-75%
70%-73%
68%-70%
65%-68%
63%-65%
60%-63%
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
0:00
CITYNORTH
SURRYHILLS
DALLEYST
MILPERRA
ZETLAND
CROWSNEST
CASTLECOVE
ST.PETERS
PADSTOW
FLEMINGTON
MATRAVILLE
CHATSWOOD
CARLTON
DOUBLEBAY
PUNCHBOWL
KIRRAWEE
HURSTVILLENTH
HORNSBY
EPPING
MIRANDA
VALESPOINT
CAMPSIE
ENFIELD
WOYWOY
BLAKEHURST
AVOCA
UMINA
REVESBY
TURRAMURRA
JANNALI
BELROSE
DEEWHY_WEST
Winter Summer
• More variability in summer peak demand load profiles for individual zone substations
• Summer peak demand generally occurs for a longer period of time during the day

23. Demand management tool box
Methods Some of the tools
Shifting appliance use from peak to
non-peak periods
•Residential hot water direct load control
•Time of use pricing
Fuel switching •Switching from electric to gas heating
Embedded generation •Cogeneration/ Trigeneration
Switching off or operating appliances
at lower demand for short periods
•Air conditioner direct load control
•Dynamic peak pricing/ rebate
•Load shedding (C&I customers)
Energy efficiency •Efficient lighting
•Efficient refrigeration and HVAC
Power Factor Correction (PFC) • kVA charges for large customers
•Installation of PFC equipment at large business sites
23

24. Summary
1. Energy and peak demand have different characteristics
2. Main drivers for electricity demand; Time of day, season, weather and day type
3. Around half of system summer peak from residential and small business
4. Residential load changes the most between peak and non-peak days
5. Peak demand growth on network assets is a key investment driver
6. The diversity of network asset loads is influenced by location and customers
7. A tool box of strategies needed for demand management