VVIP Pune Call Girls Koregaon Park (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comp...
Slides from ESA 2015
1. Integrated population models for
predicting spatial and temporal dynamics
at range margins
Richard Chandler and Samuel Merker
Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources
University of Georgia
11. Motivating questions
What are the mechanisms governing range shifts?
• Phenological mismatch
Motivation Methods Results 3 / 20
12. Motivating questions
What are the mechanisms governing range shifts?
• Phenological mismatch
• Competition/Predation
Motivation Methods Results 3 / 20
13. Motivating questions
What are the mechanisms governing range shifts?
• Phenological mismatch
• Competition/Predation
• Direct physiological effects
Motivation Methods Results 3 / 20
14. Motivating questions
What are the mechanisms governing range shifts?
• Phenological mismatch
• Competition/Predation
• Direct physiological effects
• Allee effects
Motivation Methods Results 3 / 20
15. Motivating questions
What are the mechanisms governing range shifts?
• Phenological mismatch
• Competition/Predation
• Direct physiological effects
• Allee effects
What will be the consequences for trailing-edge
populations?
Motivation Methods Results 3 / 20
16. Motivating questions
What are the mechanisms governing range shifts?
• Phenological mismatch
• Competition/Predation
• Direct physiological effects
• Allee effects
What will be the consequences for trailing-edge
populations?
How can we draw inferences, make reliable
forecasts, and inform conservation efforts?
Motivation Methods Results 3 / 20
17. What would be the ideal model?
Motivation Methods Results 4 / 20
18. What would be the ideal model?
Components
• Survival, reproduction, dispersal
Motivation Methods Results 4 / 20
19. What would be the ideal model?
Components
• Survival, reproduction, dispersal
• Spatial and temporal variation
Motivation Methods Results 4 / 20
20. What would be the ideal model?
Components
• Survival, reproduction, dispersal
• Spatial and temporal variation
• Density dependence
Motivation Methods Results 4 / 20
21. What would be the ideal model?
Components
• Survival, reproduction, dispersal
• Spatial and temporal variation
• Density dependence
• Species interactions
Motivation Methods Results 4 / 20
22. What would be the ideal model?
Components
• Survival, reproduction, dispersal
• Spatial and temporal variation
• Density dependence
• Species interactions
• Demographic and environmental stochasticity
Motivation Methods Results 4 / 20
23. What would be the ideal model?
Components
• Survival, reproduction, dispersal
• Spatial and temporal variation
• Density dependence
• Species interactions
• Demographic and environmental stochasticity
• Individual heterogeneity
Age
Sex
Size
Other traits
Motivation Methods Results 4 / 20
25. Ecological process model
Spatio-temporal point process model
Initial distribution and abundance
si,1 ∝ λ(s)
E(N1) = Λ =
S
λ(s) ds
Motivation Methods Results 5 / 20
26. Ecological process model
Spatio-temporal point process model
Initial distribution and abundance
si,1 ∝ λ(s)
E(N1) = Λ =
S
λ(s) ds
zi,1 ∼ Bernoulli(Λ/M)
N1 =
M
i=1
zi,1
Motivation Methods Results 5 / 20
27. Ecological process model
Spatio-temporal point process model
Initial distribution and abundance
si,1 ∝ λ(s)
E(N1) = Λ =
S
λ(s) ds
zi,1 ∼ Bernoulli(Λ/M)
N1 =
M
i=1
zi,1
Survival and recruitment
zi,t ∼ Bernoulli(zi,t−1φ(s) + ai,t−1γ(s) )
Motivation Methods Results 5 / 20
28. Ecological process model
Spatio-temporal point process model
Initial distribution and abundance
si,1 ∝ λ(s)
E(N1) = Λ =
S
λ(s) ds
zi,1 ∼ Bernoulli(Λ/M)
N1 =
M
i=1
zi,1
Survival and recruitment
zi,t ∼ Bernoulli(zi,t−1φ(s) + ai,t−1γ(s) )
Dispersal
si,t ∼ k(si,t−1)
Motivation Methods Results 5 / 20
55. Conclusions
(1) Spatial IPMs allow for inference on mechanisms
governing range shifts.
Motivation Methods Results 18 / 20
56. Conclusions
(1) Spatial IPMs allow for inference on mechanisms
governing range shifts.
(2) Underlying point process model can be informed by
numerous data types.
Motivation Methods Results 18 / 20
57. Conclusions
(1) Spatial IPMs allow for inference on mechanisms
governing range shifts.
(2) Underlying point process model can be informed by
numerous data types.
(3) Canada Warbler results are preliminary but suggest a
strong effect of climate on recruitment.
Motivation Methods Results 18 / 20
58. Conclusions
(1) Spatial IPMs allow for inference on mechanisms
governing range shifts.
(2) Underlying point process model can be informed by
numerous data types.
(3) Canada Warbler results are preliminary but suggest a
strong effect of climate on recruitment.
(4) Future work will allow for causal inference by
combining observational and experimental data.
Motivation Methods Results 18 / 20
59. Thanks
• Robert Cooper
• Jeff Hepinstall-Cymerman
• Len Reitsma
• Samuel Hach´e
• Heather Abernathy
• Brittney Ferrari
• Anna Joy Lehmicke
• Carly Chandler
• Jared Feura (photos)
• Alex Wilson
• Vincent Weber
• Angela Hsiung