Commercial real estate outlook remains positive but slow growth is expected in 2014 and 2015. Job growth around 1.6% is projected to drive modest increases in GDP of around 2.3% in 2014. Residential real estate sales are expected to be flat with modest home price increases. Commercial real estate transaction volume and prices are recovering from the recession with office, apartment and retail properties leading the recovery. Overall moderate economic expansion and job growth should support continued strengthening in commercial real estate markets.
This document discusses the impacts of China, tariffs, and the US election on global energy and commodities markets. It provides analysis of the US and Chinese economies, including GDP, trade balances, stimulus measures, and economic indicators. It also examines factors like monetary policy, inflation, wages, and commodity prices.
Economic outlook for Southern Oregon. Diving into how the region has fared over the Great Recession and so far in recovery. Detailed look at industries within Jackson and Josephine counties. What drives growth? What are risks to the outlook?
State of Oregon's quarterly economic and revenue forecast release. Still no personal income tax kicker in the baseline, however the threshold is razor thin with one income tax filing season to go. There is a corporate kicker in the forecast, which will be dedicated to education next biennium. This forecast also forms the base of the Governor's Recommended Budget for the 2015-17 biennium.
This document summarizes the economic outlook for South Carolina in 2021. It finds that while the state's economy rebounded strongly over the summer and fall of 2020, full recovery is not expected until mid-2021 at the earliest due to continued struggles in the leisure and hospitality industry and supply constraints in the housing market. Vaccine dissemination provides hope, but increasing COVID cases and typical year-over-year slowing could impact growth rates in the second half of 2021.
Dr. Joseph Von Nessen's presentation from the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors' annual market update in January 2020. The presentation covers market activity in 2019 and offers a forecast for 2020.
Patrick jankowski- 2019 Economic Outlook for Southeast TexasCharlie Foxworth
Southeast Texas Economic Development Foundation slides for the economic outlook for Southeast Texas in 2019. All systems are go for a good year. The only thing that can hold us back is our belief that we are "overdue" for a recession. Stay positive.
Commercial real estate outlook remains positive but slow growth is expected in 2014 and 2015. Job growth around 1.6% is projected to drive modest increases in GDP of around 2.3% in 2014. Residential real estate sales are expected to be flat with modest home price increases. Commercial real estate transaction volume and prices are recovering from the recession with office, apartment and retail properties leading the recovery. Overall moderate economic expansion and job growth should support continued strengthening in commercial real estate markets.
This document discusses the impacts of China, tariffs, and the US election on global energy and commodities markets. It provides analysis of the US and Chinese economies, including GDP, trade balances, stimulus measures, and economic indicators. It also examines factors like monetary policy, inflation, wages, and commodity prices.
Economic outlook for Southern Oregon. Diving into how the region has fared over the Great Recession and so far in recovery. Detailed look at industries within Jackson and Josephine counties. What drives growth? What are risks to the outlook?
State of Oregon's quarterly economic and revenue forecast release. Still no personal income tax kicker in the baseline, however the threshold is razor thin with one income tax filing season to go. There is a corporate kicker in the forecast, which will be dedicated to education next biennium. This forecast also forms the base of the Governor's Recommended Budget for the 2015-17 biennium.
This document summarizes the economic outlook for South Carolina in 2021. It finds that while the state's economy rebounded strongly over the summer and fall of 2020, full recovery is not expected until mid-2021 at the earliest due to continued struggles in the leisure and hospitality industry and supply constraints in the housing market. Vaccine dissemination provides hope, but increasing COVID cases and typical year-over-year slowing could impact growth rates in the second half of 2021.
Dr. Joseph Von Nessen's presentation from the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors' annual market update in January 2020. The presentation covers market activity in 2019 and offers a forecast for 2020.
Patrick jankowski- 2019 Economic Outlook for Southeast TexasCharlie Foxworth
Southeast Texas Economic Development Foundation slides for the economic outlook for Southeast Texas in 2019. All systems are go for a good year. The only thing that can hold us back is our belief that we are "overdue" for a recession. Stay positive.
Slide presentation from Gary Keith, vice president and regional economist for M & T Bank, who assessed the key economic indicators for 2008 and talked about what’s in store for our region in 2009 at the Greater Syracuse Chamber of Commerce's 2008 Economic Forecast Luncheon.
This document is an economic and revenue outlook report from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. It summarizes Oregon's economic performance, finding that job growth has outpaced the US in recent years and unemployment has fallen. It also analyzes revenue sources like income and corporate taxes, finding personal income tax collections are increasing while corporate collections remain uncertain. Overall, near-term growth is expected to remain strong but moderate in the long-run due to demographic factors.
Last week, Mr. William Strauss with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago presented the 2012 Economic Highlights to the Aurora Regional Chamber membership. This is his presentation.
Presentation to the Oregon Legislature on the latest economic and revenue outlook for the State of Oregon. Overview of the U.S. and international economic landscape in addition to what is happening in Oregon. Tax revenue tracking and outlook for personal income taxes, corporate income taxes and Lottery sales.
Global Economy and Agriculture in Transition presented by Terry Barr with CoBank at the 2013 Agri-Growth Council Annual Meeting and Speakers Conference.
This report highlights US economic performance via three key indices. The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor.
D&B’s Chief Economist Paul Ballew highlights the key findings on U.S. businesses for April 2014, in the May edition of U.S. Economic Health Tracker. The Tracker examines three macro indicator dimensions: the Small Business Health Index (SBHI), U.S. Jobs Health and U.S. Business Health Index .
The document provides an economic update for the Denver metro area in 2010, summarizing key pieces of the economy that were affected by the recession, including consumer activity, housing, business activity, and government stimulus efforts. It analyzes data on GDP growth, consumer spending, unemployment, home sales, foreclosures, commercial real estate vacancies, and more. While some parts of the economy like consumer confidence and home prices were improving, unemployment was still rising and the full recovery remained uncertain. Government stimulus programs were helping offset state budget cuts and boost activity.
Presentation to the Oregon Legislature on the latest economic and revenue outlook for the State of Oregon. Overview of the U.S. and international economic landscape in addition to what is happening in Oregon. Tax revenue tracking and outlook for personal income taxes, corporate income taxes and Lottery sales.
This document discusses Wisconsin's economic recovery and labor market challenges. It notes that while the economic recovery is underway, Wisconsin faces a labor quantity challenge as the workforce is not growing quickly enough. Technology will continue to advance and impact jobs through automation. The chief economist analyzes various factors influencing the labor supply and demand balance such as demographics, migration patterns, childcare access, wages, and automation. He discusses potential solutions like immigration, skills training, and increasing wages but notes fixing the workforce issue will require macro-level solutions.
- Real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2014 but this contraction is expected to be temporary. The public sector has weighed on overall growth but may soon contribute to growth again.
- While the budget deficit is shrinking, there is no credible plan to return to a budget surplus. Business investment and personal consumption expenditures also declined slightly in Q1 but are expected to pick up going forward.
- The unemployment rate overstates the health of the labor market as discouraged workers and part-time employment remain issues. Wage growth has been slow and consumer spending growth is expected to remain subdued.
- WCI Communities held an earnings conference call to discuss its first quarter 2015 results.
- Homebuilding revenues increased 39.6% to $67 million due to a 17.9% rise in home deliveries. Adjusted EBITDA grew 77.3% to $10 million.
- The company has a land portfolio of over 12,700 home sites and a conservative balance sheet with $145 million in cash to support continued growth.
The document examines rural housing affordability in Oregon. It finds that while overall rural affordability is better than urban areas, some rural counties face equivalent challenges to the least affordable urban counties. Regional patterns show wide variation, with counties in eastern and southwestern Oregon generally less affordable. The most expensive rural counties have price-to-income ratios exceeding 5. Factors driving differences in rural affordability include housing values, incomes, population growth, and economic performance across counties. While high home values are positive for current homeowners, affordability should be the goal of housing policy, and declining populations could impact the ability of rural homeowners to sell in the future.
Your business is impacted daily by internal and external challenges. From the state of the economy, to new regulations, to the driver shortage and more, understanding how each uniquely impacts your operations can mean the difference between failure and success. This general session will feature three of the industry’s favorite data analysts: ATA’s Chief Economist Bob Costello, ATRI President Rebecca Brewster, and AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson, who will walk you through the numbers associated with trucking and construction’s top issues so you can better understand how to drive your business to success.
Speakers: Rebecca Brewster, President, American Transportation Research Institute Bob Costello, Chief Economist, American Trucking Associations Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors
Panel discussion on how to measure, benchmark and monitor progress on key indicators of economic success in your city or region, and use data to move the needle on city progress. For more info, visit ceosforcitiesnationalmeeting.org.
2010 Real Estate Market Forecast: Jed Smith Real Estate Roundtable PresentationKent Simpson
Real estate market forecast for the rest of 2010 provided by Jed Smith, economist for National Association of REALTORS - presented on the Real Estate RoundTable show on BlogTalkRadio March 5, 2010.
The 2019 strategic outlook document discusses several topics:
1) A real estate investment in Cottonwood Mall that is projected to have an IRR over 20% despite challenges in the retail landscape.
2) An investment in Empire that has significantly outperformed since being acquired in 2016 when analysts were negative on the stock.
3) A review of 2018 market performance showing steep declines in global equity markets and fixed income.
4) A framework for "Four Season Investing" looking at historical market cycles and positioning portfolios accordingly.
5) The potential for a "Perfect Storm" in 2019 from trade conflicts and changes in monetary policy creating headwinds for markets.
The document summarizes economic trends in Atlanta and nationally. It finds that while recovery from the recession continues, with GDP and employment increasing, progress has been slow. Job growth has primarily occurred in lower-wage sectors, holding down wage growth. Unemployment rates remain higher for minorities and less educated groups. However, leading indicators like increasing job postings in high-tech fields, rising patent activity, and forecasts predict potential growth in higher-wage sectors going forward.
The U.S. and state economies continue to expand. Total employment is at all-time highs and unemployment is back to rates seen prior to the Great Recession. However, not all labor market indicators are back. The share of prime working-age adults in just 2 states is back to the same share prior to the recession. Progress is being made, however recovery is not yet complete.
Slide presentation from Gary Keith, vice president and regional economist for M & T Bank, who assessed the key economic indicators for 2008 and talked about what’s in store for our region in 2009 at the Greater Syracuse Chamber of Commerce's 2008 Economic Forecast Luncheon.
This document is an economic and revenue outlook report from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. It summarizes Oregon's economic performance, finding that job growth has outpaced the US in recent years and unemployment has fallen. It also analyzes revenue sources like income and corporate taxes, finding personal income tax collections are increasing while corporate collections remain uncertain. Overall, near-term growth is expected to remain strong but moderate in the long-run due to demographic factors.
Last week, Mr. William Strauss with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago presented the 2012 Economic Highlights to the Aurora Regional Chamber membership. This is his presentation.
Presentation to the Oregon Legislature on the latest economic and revenue outlook for the State of Oregon. Overview of the U.S. and international economic landscape in addition to what is happening in Oregon. Tax revenue tracking and outlook for personal income taxes, corporate income taxes and Lottery sales.
Global Economy and Agriculture in Transition presented by Terry Barr with CoBank at the 2013 Agri-Growth Council Annual Meeting and Speakers Conference.
This report highlights US economic performance via three key indices. The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor.
D&B’s Chief Economist Paul Ballew highlights the key findings on U.S. businesses for April 2014, in the May edition of U.S. Economic Health Tracker. The Tracker examines three macro indicator dimensions: the Small Business Health Index (SBHI), U.S. Jobs Health and U.S. Business Health Index .
The document provides an economic update for the Denver metro area in 2010, summarizing key pieces of the economy that were affected by the recession, including consumer activity, housing, business activity, and government stimulus efforts. It analyzes data on GDP growth, consumer spending, unemployment, home sales, foreclosures, commercial real estate vacancies, and more. While some parts of the economy like consumer confidence and home prices were improving, unemployment was still rising and the full recovery remained uncertain. Government stimulus programs were helping offset state budget cuts and boost activity.
Presentation to the Oregon Legislature on the latest economic and revenue outlook for the State of Oregon. Overview of the U.S. and international economic landscape in addition to what is happening in Oregon. Tax revenue tracking and outlook for personal income taxes, corporate income taxes and Lottery sales.
This document discusses Wisconsin's economic recovery and labor market challenges. It notes that while the economic recovery is underway, Wisconsin faces a labor quantity challenge as the workforce is not growing quickly enough. Technology will continue to advance and impact jobs through automation. The chief economist analyzes various factors influencing the labor supply and demand balance such as demographics, migration patterns, childcare access, wages, and automation. He discusses potential solutions like immigration, skills training, and increasing wages but notes fixing the workforce issue will require macro-level solutions.
- Real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2014 but this contraction is expected to be temporary. The public sector has weighed on overall growth but may soon contribute to growth again.
- While the budget deficit is shrinking, there is no credible plan to return to a budget surplus. Business investment and personal consumption expenditures also declined slightly in Q1 but are expected to pick up going forward.
- The unemployment rate overstates the health of the labor market as discouraged workers and part-time employment remain issues. Wage growth has been slow and consumer spending growth is expected to remain subdued.
- WCI Communities held an earnings conference call to discuss its first quarter 2015 results.
- Homebuilding revenues increased 39.6% to $67 million due to a 17.9% rise in home deliveries. Adjusted EBITDA grew 77.3% to $10 million.
- The company has a land portfolio of over 12,700 home sites and a conservative balance sheet with $145 million in cash to support continued growth.
The document examines rural housing affordability in Oregon. It finds that while overall rural affordability is better than urban areas, some rural counties face equivalent challenges to the least affordable urban counties. Regional patterns show wide variation, with counties in eastern and southwestern Oregon generally less affordable. The most expensive rural counties have price-to-income ratios exceeding 5. Factors driving differences in rural affordability include housing values, incomes, population growth, and economic performance across counties. While high home values are positive for current homeowners, affordability should be the goal of housing policy, and declining populations could impact the ability of rural homeowners to sell in the future.
Your business is impacted daily by internal and external challenges. From the state of the economy, to new regulations, to the driver shortage and more, understanding how each uniquely impacts your operations can mean the difference between failure and success. This general session will feature three of the industry’s favorite data analysts: ATA’s Chief Economist Bob Costello, ATRI President Rebecca Brewster, and AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson, who will walk you through the numbers associated with trucking and construction’s top issues so you can better understand how to drive your business to success.
Speakers: Rebecca Brewster, President, American Transportation Research Institute Bob Costello, Chief Economist, American Trucking Associations Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors
Panel discussion on how to measure, benchmark and monitor progress on key indicators of economic success in your city or region, and use data to move the needle on city progress. For more info, visit ceosforcitiesnationalmeeting.org.
2010 Real Estate Market Forecast: Jed Smith Real Estate Roundtable PresentationKent Simpson
Real estate market forecast for the rest of 2010 provided by Jed Smith, economist for National Association of REALTORS - presented on the Real Estate RoundTable show on BlogTalkRadio March 5, 2010.
The 2019 strategic outlook document discusses several topics:
1) A real estate investment in Cottonwood Mall that is projected to have an IRR over 20% despite challenges in the retail landscape.
2) An investment in Empire that has significantly outperformed since being acquired in 2016 when analysts were negative on the stock.
3) A review of 2018 market performance showing steep declines in global equity markets and fixed income.
4) A framework for "Four Season Investing" looking at historical market cycles and positioning portfolios accordingly.
5) The potential for a "Perfect Storm" in 2019 from trade conflicts and changes in monetary policy creating headwinds for markets.
The document summarizes economic trends in Atlanta and nationally. It finds that while recovery from the recession continues, with GDP and employment increasing, progress has been slow. Job growth has primarily occurred in lower-wage sectors, holding down wage growth. Unemployment rates remain higher for minorities and less educated groups. However, leading indicators like increasing job postings in high-tech fields, rising patent activity, and forecasts predict potential growth in higher-wage sectors going forward.
The U.S. and state economies continue to expand. Total employment is at all-time highs and unemployment is back to rates seen prior to the Great Recession. However, not all labor market indicators are back. The share of prime working-age adults in just 2 states is back to the same share prior to the recession. Progress is being made, however recovery is not yet complete.
La ponencia trata sobre los esfuerzos de Ingeniería Sin Fronteras Argentina para mejorar vidas a través de proyectos de ingeniería durante los últimos 5 años, ayudando a más de 230 personas activas en 14 proyectos en curso y 13 proyectos terminados en 5 provincias, además de ofrecer 3 cursos.
This document summarizes a project called "SLUDGE4AGGREGATES" which aims to valorize sludge waste from wastewater treatment plants and aggregate mining by transforming it into lightweight aggregates. The project has a budget of 1.5 million euros from the LIFE+ program and runs from 2013 to 2016. It involves developing an innovative process to produce lightweight aggregates from sludge waste and validating its use in construction and soil remediation. The consortium includes technical centers and universities working to reduce raw material consumption and increase the sustainability of construction materials.
Švediškas sveikatingumo produktas. Švedijoje masažuotojų bei fizioterapeutų
bendro darbo rezultatas. „TREND REHAB“ Ši masažinė įranga yra užpatentuota Švedijos mokslininkų.
The document summarizes a project called LIFE CERAM that aims to achieve zero waste in ceramic tile manufacturing. The project (1) develops a new ceramic tile made mainly from waste for outdoor use, and (2) designs a sustainable process using dry milling and granulation technologies. Expected results include reducing water and energy usage, CO2 emissions, and waste disposal by at least 30% each during the project period.
Deadline Monotonic Scheduling to Reduce Overhead of Superframe in ISA100.11aOka Danil
In this paper, we develop new method to reduce communication overhead in ISA100.11a
Wireless Industrial Networks. Deadline monotonic scheduling scheme was proposed for
the analysis and simulation of the system. The result shows, our proposed approach
require less number of beacon to transmit data in network.
This document provides an overview of digital systems. It begins by defining measurements and distinguishing between continuous and discrete measurement systems. It then discusses different numeral systems, focusing on the binary system used in digital circuits. It introduces the concept of layered models to represent different abstraction levels in digital systems from the physical components to numerical representation. Transistors are described as quantifiers, switches and analog-to-digital converters that enable the construction of digital circuits. Other possible digital systems like ternary are also mentioned briefly. Overall questions about digital systems are posed and the reader is thanked.
This document provides information and tips for social media advertising on platforms like Facebook and Instagram. It discusses targeting the right audience based on factors like age, gender, interests and behaviors. It emphasizes testing different ad creatives, copy, placements and audiences to optimize performance. Native advertising examples are also presented as an alternative to traditional ads. The overall message is to choose objectives wisely, focus on creative quality, continually test and optimize ads, and leverage different platforms like social media, content marketing and analytics for an effective online advertising strategy.
This short document promotes creating presentations using Haiku Deck, a tool for making slideshows. It encourages the reader to get started making their own Haiku Deck presentation and sharing it on SlideShare. In just one sentence, it pitches the idea of using Haiku Deck to easily create engaging slideshow presentations.
TÜV NORD GROUP is a certification body that provides standardization and conformity assessment services. It is accredited to certify products according to European standards and notified to assess compliance with European directives. It has international recognition from organizations in the US, Australia, and South Korea. TÜV NORD GROUP has experience in projects involving standardization and certification for security applications in areas like disaster resilience, fighting crime and terrorism, and border security. It is interested in partnering on projects involving standardization, validation, and conformity evaluation of security devices and systems.
Finnair Future of Travel Hackathon 2015Tero Valkiala
Public presentation of "Future of Travel" hackathon Finnair organized together with Finavia and Reaktor in Helsinki, 6.-8.11.2015. #digital #innovations
The document discusses various technologies and software that the author learned during the process of creating a film project. The author discusses using iMovie to edit footage, add transitions like cross dissolve, and change audio effects. They also used Edublogs to construct blogs about the project and Prezi and Slideshare to present work online in an interactive format. Overall, the author gained experience using iMovie, Edublogs, After Effects, Prezi and Slideshare to produce, edit and present various elements of a film project.
Did you know total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March 2020, measuring the effects of COVID-19 and efforts to contain it? Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.
The document summarizes an economic commentary discussing recent weak US employment reports and the disconnect between stock market performance and underlying economic conditions. It notes that while unemployment remains high and growth weak, corporate earnings have remained strong, supporting stock prices. It also introduces a special report on China's economic rise and changing demographics that may challenge continued growth.
Elevation Wealth Management's quarterly review of the investment, financial, and economic landscape as of September 30, 2013. Key take-aways and useful insights for average and sophisticated investors alike.
This document discusses challenges facing Americans in retirement planning and proposes solutions to help ensure adequate lifetime income. It notes that entitlement costs will rise significantly, replacement rates from Social Security are declining, and many lack workplace retirement plans, leaving a growing gap in assured retirement income. While defined contribution savings plans have grown substantially, risks like market volatility and inflation still threaten to erode savings. The document proposes new retirement plan designs that incorporate guaranteed lifetime income options and advice, and move beyond just asset accumulation to address distribution challenges in retirement.
Liu - Wyoming Business Report - Casper - Eco 2013bizwest
The document summarizes Wyoming's economic trends from 2009 to 2013. It notes that while Wyoming recovered strongly from the recession in 2010-2011, its economy slowed in 2012-2013 due to falling natural gas prices. However, the economy appears to be growing again in late 2013 as gas prices have stabilized. The mining industry, which makes up a large portion of Wyoming's economy, struggled but oil exploration continued expanding. The document analyzes employment, GDP, revenue trends and forecasts modest growth for Wyoming's economy in 2014.
Cyclical Stabilization and the Structure of Mortgage FinanceUrban Institute
Jim Stock, a member of the Council of Economic Advisors and a Senior Advisor to the President, discusses housing finance reform from a macroeconomic perspective. Specifically, elaborating on the need for the mortgage finance system to provide liquidity at reasonable rates during good and bad economic times. Stock refers to this property as cyclical resilience.
The basic idea of cyclical resilience is straightforward: even if the economy is in a downturn, and even if there are disruptions to financial markets, the housing finance system should still provide reasonably-priced mortgages to creditworthy borrowers. Otherwise, financial market shocks, such as sharp drops in prices of classes of assets, could result in reduced liquidity and could stall the real side of the economy through curtailed housing market activity. Stalling out the housing sector would in turn produce or exacerbate a broader economic downturn.
Moreover, housing sector contractions can particularly hit low- to middle-income communities, which are disproportionately dependent on the housing sector for employment and on home equity for savings. A cyclically resilient housing finance system provides a buffer between financial market disruptions and real economic activity.
Seeking out the Return - Growth Assets in Focus Redington
This document provides an agenda and background materials for an education session on growth and matching assets being held by Redington on October 14, 2010 in London. The session will include presentations on investment performance and economic outlook, developed market equities, emerging market equities, hedge funds, commodities, and a panel discussion. Supporting slides provide an analysis of recent economic and market trends in areas like global GDP, manufacturing, equities, bonds, commodities, inflation, and monetary policy.
- The document is a 2016 outlook report from First National Bank's wealth management division.
- It predicts another year of low stock market returns and increased volatility as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
- The US economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate 2.5% pace, supported by a strong job market but facing headwinds from weak business investment and slowing growth in emerging markets like China.
- Inflation is predicted to remain moderate due to factors like the strong dollar and low commodity prices.
The document summarizes Darryl Gobbett's presentation on South Australian business conditions and budget forecasts to the Master Builders SA State Budget Breakfast on June 19, 2015. It includes global and national economic trends, implications for SA businesses, forecasts for the Australian and South Australian economies, and an overview of priorities and themes in the SA state budget. Key points covered are steady global growth, very low interest rates overseas, impacts of lower commodity prices in Australia, household spending and debt levels, population and skills challenges for SA, and tax reforms in the SA budget aimed at boosting business investment.
Dr. Stephen J. Fuller of George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis gave a presentation to the Democratic Business Council of Northern Virginia (DemBiz.org) on April 18, 2014. These are the updated slides from the presentation.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for various regions including globally, the US, Canada, and Ontario. It summarizes recent economic growth trends, risks, currency movements, housing, labor, and other indicators. Growth is expected to remain modest globally and many regions face challenges from slowing emerging markets, currency appreciation, weak commodity prices, and lack of pent-up consumer demand. [END SUMMARY]
This document provides an agenda and presentation materials for an investment seminar. The agenda includes a review of the first half of 2015, factors that drove market performance, an overview of the US economy, and strategies for volatile markets. The presentation materials provide data and analysis on topics like 2015 market forecasts, the impact of potential federal reserve interest rate hikes, international economic conditions, and tips for individual investors to tune out emotion and stay focused on their long-term goals in uncertain markets.
Maricopa Economic Outlook and Labor Study PreviewCity of Maricopa
The document provides an economic briefing for the City of Maricopa discussing the state of the economy and recovery. It notes that while some indicators like GDP are improving, the overall recovery will be weak with continued job losses and struggling consumers. Arizona has fallen from 2nd to 50th in job growth recently due to financial issues. The recovery in Arizona and Maricopa will be slow and dependent on national economic improvements, but positives include affordable home prices and a skilled local workforce.
This document provides a quarterly review of capital markets and the economy for the period ending December 31, 2009. It includes summaries of key economic indicators such as GDP, employment, consumer confidence, and inflation. It also reviews the performance of major asset classes and indexes. Expert commentary is provided on the economic outlook and investment strategy.
Presentation to glyndwr university 22 januaryMark Beatson
This document discusses how economic trends may impact managing people in organizations. It notes that the economy is expected to see slower growth than 2014 but better than the past 5 years. The labor market will continue expanding but wage growth is unlikely before 2016 if productivity increases. Population aging will affect both product demand and labor supply. Technological advances may reshape the labor market and required skills. European economic conditions will continue influencing the UK economy due to trade links. Long term trends like an aging population and rise of the knowledge economy are also discussed.
- UBS is a global wealth management firm with over 140 years of experience serving clients in Europe and the US.
- The global markets have experienced significant turmoil over the past year, with the S&P down 40% and investors fleeing to cash positions.
- While periods of negative returns are common over the short-term, stocks have historically outperformed bonds and cash over long time periods of 10 years or more.
- The document discusses economic data and forecasts from various sources that have been inaccurate and overly optimistic in recent years.
- It argues that expectations for equity, bond and GDP returns should be lowered going forward due to factors like high debt levels, aging demographics, and limited earnings growth potential.
- Alternative strategies like convertible bonds are presented as having better risk-adjusted returns than traditional stocks and bonds based on historical data. Combining convertible bonds with core bond holdings is suggested as one approach.
China's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addictedRBS Economics
China's economy is slowing. It's policy makers are having to contend with a massive debt-fuelled investment binge and the need to implement necessary reforms to rebalance the economy.
Senior Economist Marcus Wright goes behind the headlines with this stock take that sets out the main economic challenges facing China.
- UBS is a global wealth manager and bank focused on serving individual clients, with over 140 years of history in Europe and the US.
- The global markets have experienced significant turmoil over the past year, with stock markets down over 40% and unprecedented levels of consumer debt in the US raising concerns.
- However, stocks have historically provided the highest returns over the long-term and negative returns over periods of 5-10 years are rare, so investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio and stay invested for the long run despite current volatility.
BEST FARMLAND FOR SALE | FARM PLOTS NEAR BANGALORE | KANAKAPURA | CHICKKABALP...knox groups real estate
welcome to knox groups real estate company in Bangalore. best farm land for sale near Bangalore and madhugiri . Managed farmland near Kanakapura and Chickkabalapur get know more details about the projects .Knox groups is a leading real estate company dedicated to helping individuals and businesses navigate the dynamic real estate market. With our extensive knowledge, experience, and commitment to excellence, we deliver exceptional results for our clients. Discover the perfect foundation for your agricultural aspirations with KNOX Groups' prime farm lands. These aren't just plots; they're the fertile grounds where vibrant crops flourish, livestock thrives, and unique agricultural ventures come to life. At KNOX, we go beyond selling land we curate sustainable ecosystems, ensuring that your journey toward agricultural success is seamless and prosperous.
Living in an UBER World - June '24 Sales MeetingTom Blefko
June 2024 Lancaster County Sales Meeting for Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Homesale Realty covering the following topics: 1. VA Suspends Buyer Agent Payment Plan (article), 2. Frequently Used Terms in title, 3. Zillow Showcase Overview, 4. QuickBuy commission promotion, 5. Documenting Cooperative Compensation, 6. NAR's Code of Ethics - Mass Media Solicitations, 7. Is it really cheaper to rent? 8. Do's and Don't's when Terminating the Agreement of Sale, 9. Living in an UBER World
The SVN® organization shares a portion of their new weekly listings via their SVN Live® Weekly Property Broadcast. Visit https://svn.com/svn-live/ if you would like to attend our weekly call, which we open up to the brokerage community.
Stark Builders: Where Quality Meets Craftsmanship!shuilykhatunnil
At Stark Builders our vision is to redefine the renovation experience by combining both stunning design and high quality construction skills. We believe that by delivering both these key aspects together we are able to achieve incredible results for our clients and ensure every project reflects their vision and enhances their lifestyle.
Although we are not all related by blood we have created a team of highly professional and hardworking individuals who share the common goal of delivering beautiful and functional renovated spaces. Our tight nit team are able to work together in a way where we pour our passion into each and every project as we have a love for what we do. Building is our life.
The SVN® organization shares a portion of their new weekly listings via their SVN Live® Weekly Property Broadcast. Visit https://svn.com/svn-live/ if you would like to attend our weekly call, which we open up to the brokerage community.
AVRUPA KONUTLARI ESENTEPE - ENGLISH - Listing TurkeyListing Turkey
Looking for a new home in Istanbul? Look no further than Avrupa Konutlari Esentepe! Our beautifully designed homes provide the perfect blend of luxury and comfort, making them the perfect choice for anyone looking for a high-quality home in the city.
With a wide range of apartment types available, from 1+1 to 4+1, we have something to suit every need and budget. Each apartment is designed with attention to detail and features spacious and bright living areas, making them the perfect place to relax and unwind after a long day.
One of the things that sets Avrupa Konutlari Esentepe apart from other developments is our focus on creating a community that is both comfortable and convenient. Our homes are surrounded by lush green spaces, perfect for enjoying a peaceful stroll or having a picnic with friends and family. Additionally, our complex includes a variety of social and recreational amenities, such as swimming pools, sports fields, and playgrounds, making it easy for residents to stay active and socialize with their neighbors.
https://listingturkey.com/property/avrupa-konutlari-esentepe/
Dholera Smart City Latest Development Status 2024.pdfShivgan Infratech
Explore the latest development status of Dholera Smart City in 2024. Discover the progress, infrastructure, and future plans of India's first greenfield smart city.
Dholera Smart City Latest Development Status 2024.pdf
Arizona Economic Housing Outlook
1. Everything You Wanted to
Know About Arizona and
Greater Phoenix
San Jose Real Estate Investors
November 19, 2013
Presented By:
Rick Merritt
President, Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
4. It is only because
conditions have been
so poor for so long
that we feel this
(insert word here) recovery
is OK.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
5. When will the recovery firm up?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
6. Good News –
The recovery
should continue
because there
are no
significant
imbalances.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
7. Overall
• No irrational exuberance
Consumers
• Debt burden low
• Net worth improved
• Real income growth
• Liquidity improving
• Inflation low
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
8. Businesses
• No excess inventory
• No capacity issues
• Dollar not overly strong
Government
• No longer a drag on economy
• Fed policy still expansive
Housing
• Prices up but only as a rebound
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
9. Economic Crisis Du Jour
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
U.S. Debt Ceiling
ObamaCare
Middle East
European Debt
Rating Downgrade
Middle East
Fiscal Cliff
Sequestration
Middle East…
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
No growth for
you!?!?
10. United States Real Gross Domestic Product*
Annual Growth 1970 - 2014**
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis & Blue Chip Economic Indicators
8%
7.3%
5.4% 5.6%
5.6%
6%
5.2%
4.6%
4.6%
4%
4.8%
4.5%
4.5%
4.1%
3.6% 4.0%3.8%
4.2%
4.2%
3.5%
3.5%
3.7%
3.2%
2.6%
3.3%
2.8%
2.7% 2.7%
1.9%
2%
3.8%
3.4%
2.8%
2.5%
2.6%
1.8%
1.6%
2.7%
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0%
-0.5%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-2%
-0.3%
-1.9%
-2.8%
0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
197
197
197
197
197
198
198
198
198
198
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
200
201
201
201
-4%
* Based on chained 2009 dollars.
** 2013 and 2014 are a forecast from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, September 2013
3.8% = 40-year avg during expansion
3.2% = 20-year avg during expansion
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
11. US Non-Farm Employment
Change from Prior Month (S/A)
June 2010 – August 2013
Source: Bureau Labor of Statistics
400
350
300
271
228
250
205
196
200
0
69
(250)
78
165 160
153
138
125
112
87
199
176 172 169
148 142
104
-37
-43
-86
(150) -130
(200)
132
205
247
219
1
(50)
(100)
230
174
166
115
95
100
225
209
144
150
50
332
311
304
Feel Better When >200k
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
12. US Non-Farm Employment
Percent of Persons Working Full Time (S/A)
1970 – 2013*
Source: Bureau Labor of Statistics
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Recession Periods
*Data through August 2013.
13. U.S. Unemployment Rate
1970 – 2013*
Recession Periods
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Underemployment = 14.3%
*Seasonally adjusted data through July 2013
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
16. Leads to…
• Retirement freedom
• Ability to relocate
• Comfort with additional spending
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
17. U.S. Household Net Worth
(Billions of Dollars, NSA)
1970 - 2013*
Recession Periods
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
*Data through first quarter 2013.
19. Household Debt Composition
Percent Change Year Ago
2004 – 2012
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Recession Periods
20. Rate Sensitivity
$25,000 Car Loan Payments
5-Year Term
Interest Rate
Monthly Payment
3.0%
$449.22
4.0%
$460.00
5.0%
$471.78
6.0%
$483.32
7.0%
$495.03
8.0%
$506.91
9.0%
$518.96
10.0%
$531.18
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
22. How Do
We Get
Off the
Cheap
Money
Train?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
23. Net Percentage of Large U.S. Banks
Reporting Tougher Standards versus Eased Standards
on Residential Mortgage Prime Loans
2007Q1 – 2013Q2
Source: Federal Reserve, Board of Governors
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
1
13
Q
3
12
Q
1
12
Q
3
11
Q
1
11
Q
3
10
Q
1
10
Q
3
09
Q
1
09
Q
3
08
Q
1
08
Q
3
Q
07
07
Q
1
0%
-10%
24. Consumer Summary:
Jobs are being created at a slow rate.
Those that have jobs are being cautious in
spending.
Unemployment will trend lower but
underemployment will remain high.
Wealth levels are improving.
People feeling better, but uncertainty across the
globe and U.S. Congressional roadblocks are
affecting confidence.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
26. Net Percentage of Large U.S. Banks
Reporting Tougher Standards versus Eased Standards
on Business Loans
1997 – 2013*
Source: Federal Reserve, Board of Governors
Recession Periods
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Small Firms
40%
Large &
Medium Firms
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
19
97
19 Q4
98
19 Q2
98
19 Q4
9
19 9 Q
99 2
20 Q4
00
20 Q2
00
20 Q4
0
20 1 Q
01 2
20 Q4
02
20 Q2
02
20 Q4
0
20 3 Q
03 2
20 Q4
04
20 Q2
04
20 Q4
0
20 5 Q
05 2
20 Q4
06
20 Q2
06
20 Q4
0
20 7 Q
07 2
20 Q4
08
20 Q2
08
20 Q4
0
20 9 Q
09 2
20 Q4
10
20 Q2
10
20 Q4
1
20 1 Q
11 2
20 Q4
12
20 Q2
12
20 Q4
13
Q
2
-30%
* Data as of July 2013 survey.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
27. Ja
n
Ja -70
n
Ja -71
n
Ja -72
n
Ja -73
n
Ja -74
n
Ja -75
n
Ja -76
n
Ja -77
n
Ja -78
n
Ja -79
n
Ja -80
n
Ja -81
n
Ja -82
n
Ja -83
n
Ja -84
n
Ja -85
n
Ja -86
n
Ja -87
n
Ja -88
n
Ja -89
n
Ja -90
n
Ja -91
n
Ja -92
n
Ja -93
n
Ja -94
n
Ja -95
n
Ja -96
n
Ja -97
n
Ja -98
n
Ja -99
n
Ja -00
n
Ja -01
n
Ja -02
n
Ja -03
n
Ja -04
n
Ja -05
n
Ja -06
n
Ja -07
n
Ja -08
n
Ja -09
n
Ja -10
n
Ja -11
n
Ja -12
n13
Capacity Utilization Rate
1970 – 2013*
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Recession Periods
90
85
80
75
70
65
*Data through July 2013
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
28. Business Spending on Equipment
Percent Change from Prior Quarter
2005 – 2013*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Recession Periods
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
*Data through first quarter 2013
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
29. Business Spending on Plant
Percent Change from Prior Quarter
2005 – 2013*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Recession Periods
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
-14.0%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
*Data through first quarter 2013
Note: Data smoothed in Q1 & Q2 of 2011
30. U.S. Inventories to Sales Ratio:
Total Business
1992 – 2013*
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce: Census Bureau
Recession Periods
1.60
1.55
1.50
1.45
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
1.10
* Data through June 2013.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
32. Business Summary:
Businesses are in better shape.
Spending on equipment to continue to
grow modestly.
Spending on plant will soon accelerate.
Employment to continue to grow.
Uncertainty over Congress, Obamacare
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
38. How Arizona Ranks Among the States in
Percentage Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis
DECADE
POPULATION
EMPLOYMENT
PERSONAL
INCOME
1950 - 1960
4TH
3RD
4TH
1960 - 1970
3RD
3RD
4TH
1970 - 1980
2ND
3RD
3RD
1980 - 1990
3RD
3RD
5TH
1990 - 2000
2ND
2ND
3RD
2000 – 2010
2ND
10th
7TH
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
40. Where Do In-Migrants Come From
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
California
Rust Belt (Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania)
Northeast (Washington D.C. to Boston)
Florida
Everywhere else
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
42. 2000 - 2012
Arizona Population Growth Distribution
Source: Arizona Department of Security Department
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
43. Greater Phoenix Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; Arizona Department of Economic Security
Year
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Population
374,961
726,183
1,039,807
1,600,083
2,238,498
3,251,876
4,192,887
U.S. 2010 = 309,769,609
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
44. Arizona population growth was
slow but still Top 10 in 2012
1
9
3
5
4
6
7
10
Percent Change 2012
U. S. Census Bureau
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
2
8
46. Greater Phoenix Population
Annual Percent Change 1976–2014*
Source: Arizona State University & Department of Commerce, Research Administration
6%
5.1%
4.6%
4.7%
4.3%
4.2%
4.4%
4.2%
4.3%
4.2%
4.3% 4.3%
4.2%
3.9%
4%
3.7%
3.8%
3.3% 3.1%
3.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
2.9%
3.1%
2.7%
2.8%
2.5%
2.1%
3.6%
3.0%
2.6%
2.4%
1.9%
2%
1.8%
1.5%
1.3%
0.5%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
0%
.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Recession Periods
* 2013 & 2014 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
47. Job Growth 2006
Alaska
24
Source: US BLS
10
7
9
5
4
14
23
Hawaii
1
3
15
8
2
Jobs growing
Top 10
Jobs declining
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
11
6
50
48. Job Growth 2010
Source: US BLS
Alaska
2
8
48
18
27
39
50
32
41
Hawaii
23
49
Jobs growing
Top 10
Jobs declining
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
1
7
46
9
4
40
10
43
3
6
5
49. Job Growth 2013
YTD July 2013 vs YTD July 2012
Source: US BLS
Alaska
50
6
10
21
4
1
49
9
2
11
23
Hawaii
7
Jobs growing
Top 10
Jobs declining
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
5
38
8
3
50. Job Growth 2013
July 2013 vs July 2012
Source: US BLS
Alaska
50
9
16
19
6
2
8
29
42
1
24
35
Hawaii
4
Jobs growing
Top 10
Jobs declining
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
7
40
5
10
3
52. State Job Growth 2013
YTD July 2013 vs YTD July 2012
Source: US BLS
20
North Dakota
Utah
Texas
Idaho
Colorado
Washington
Arizona
Georgia
Nevada
Montana
California
North Carolina
Minnesota
Delaware
Florida
Tennessee
Mississippi
New Jersey
Indiana
South Carolina
Oregon
Massachusetts
Hawaii
Maryland
Vermont
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
3.97%
3.27%
2.94%
2.81%
2.59%
2.08%
2.07%
2.06%
1.95%
1.91%
1.89%
1.88%
1.87%
1.78%
1.77%
1.76%
1.72%
1.63%
1.60%
1.58%
1.49%
1.49%
1.45%
1.45%
1.43%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Iowa
Louisiana
South Dakota
Michigan
New Hampshire
Virginia
Missouri
Kentucky
New York
Kansas
Oklahoma
Illinois
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Connecticut
Alabama
Arkansas
West Virginia
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Maine
Wyoming
Alaska
1.39%
1.25%
1.23%
1.23%
1.21%
1.13%
1.12%
1.09%
1.09%
1.06%
1.03%
0.99%
0.77%
0.76%
0.71%
0.70%
0.62%
0.60%
0.58%
0.47%
0.39%
0.38%
0.20%
0.13%
0.00%
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
53. Top Sources of New Jobs
Arizona
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Job Growth
Wage
Total
67,600
$45,237
1
Food Services
10,100
$16,452
2
Health Care
8,900
$47,847
3
Construction
8,200
$47,020
4
Financial Activities
7,400
$59,564
5
Wholesale Trade
6,200
$69,918
6
Administrative Services
5,700
$32,741
7
Retail Trade
4,400
$29,843
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
*Job growth July 2013/ July 2012
54. Top Sources of New Jobs
U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Job Growth
Total
Wage
2,296,000
$49,200
1
Food Services
387,800
$16,242
2
Administrative services
354,700
$34,870
3
Retail Trade
353,200
$27,729
4
Health Care
322,200
$45,407
5
Professional services
237,900
$83,357
6
Construction
166,000
$52,294
7
Financial activities
124,000
$80,097
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
*Job growth July 2013/ July 2012
55. Arizona Job Losses Exceeded U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Data
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
56. Arizona Jobs Regained Since Bottom of Cycle
Most Industries Yet To Regain Lost Jobs
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
58. Phoenix Moving Up:
Rank of the Largest CMSA’s/MSA’s
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
1980
1990
2010
2012
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Philadelphia
Detroit
San Francisco
Washington, DC
Dallas
Houston
Boston
Nassau-Suffolk
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Minneapolis
Atlanta
Newark
Orange County, CA
Cleveland
San Diego
Miami
Denver
Seattle
Tampa
Riverside
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Washington, DC
San Francisco
Philadelphia
Boston
Detroit
Dallas
Houston
Miami
Seattle
Atlanta
Cleveland
Minneapolis
San Diego
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Philadelphia
Houston
Washington DC
Miami
Atlanta
Boston
San Francisco
Detroit
Riverside
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Houston
Philadelphia
Washington DC
Miami
Atlanta
Boston
San Francisco
Riverside
Greater Phoenix
Detroit
Seattle
Minneapolis
San Diego
Tampa
St. Louis
Baltimore
Denver
Pittsburgh
Charlotte
Portland
San Antonio
Orlando
Greater Phoenix
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix
Tampa
Denver
Cincinnati
Portland
Milwaukee
Kansas City
Sacramento
Seattle
Minneapolis
San Diego
St. Louis
Tampa
Baltimore
Denver
Pittsburgh
Portland
Sacramento
San Antonio
Orlando
Greater Phoenix
59. Top 20 Largest CMSA’s/MSA’s
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
CMSA/MSA
Population
New York
19,831,858
Los Angeles
13,052,921
Chicago
Dallas
6,700,991
Houston
6,177,035
Philadelphia
6,018,800
Washington DC
5,860,342
Miami
5,762,717
Atlanta
5,457,831
Boston
4,640,802
San Francisco
4,455,560
Riverside
4,350,096
Greater Phoenix
4,329,534
Detroit
4,292,060
Seattle
3,552,157
Minneapolis
3,422,264
San Diego
3,177,063
Tampa
2,842,878
St. Louis
2,795,794
Baltimore
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
9,522,434
2,753,149
61. Ten Factors Contributing to
Greater Phoenix’s Growth
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Climate
Lifestyle
Geographic Location
Pro-Growth Attitude
Competitive Tax Structure
Focused Incentives
Leadership with Common Sense
Low Cost of Living
Congressional delegation working for State’s Long-Term
Needs
10. Business & Government Headed in Same Direction
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
65. Greater Phoenix’s economic
fundamentals have not changed
with the recession (even
housing has returned to more
affordable levels).
The long term economic outlook
remains favorable.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
67. Age: Phoenix is all old
retired Midwesterners
living in Sun City
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
68. MEDIAN AGE
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Male
Female
Total
Greater Phoenix
32.9
34.6
33.7
United States
35.4
38.2
36.8
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
71. GREATER PHOENIX WATER DEMAND
Source: Arizona Department of Water Resources
Municipal
41.4%
Agricultural &
Other
58.6%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
72. COMPARISON OF WATER USAGE
AGRICULTURE vs. RESIDENTIAL
Source: Arizona Water Resources Assessment, AZ DWR
ACRE FEET OF WATER
PER ACRE
8
5.74
6
4
1.81
2
0
AGRICULTURE
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
SINGLE FAMILY
RESIDENTIAL
74. Median Household Income - Phoenix Peer Metro Areas
Adjusted for Cost of Living
2010
City
Nominal
Nominal Rank
Adjusted
Adjusted Rank
Dallas
$54,539
8
$57,959
3
Atlanta
$55,464
7
$58,077
2
Austin
$56,218
6
$58,867
1
Salt Lake City
$57,138
4
$56,797
5
Denver
$59,007
3
$57,233
4
Phoenix
$52,796
10
$52,481
8
Las Vegas
$53,505
9
$52,599
7
Seattle
$64,028
1
$52,828
6
Portland
$55,521
6
$49,929
9
San Diego
$60,231
2
$45,595
10
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
75. What Makes Greater Phoenix Tick?
Current Economic Base
1.
2.
3.
4.
High-tech (Semi-conductors)
Aerospace & Defense
Advanced Business Services
Transportation, Distribution, &
Wholesale Trade
5. Tourism
6. Retirement & Second Home
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
76. Greater Phoenix Top Employers
Semiconductors
Intel Corp.
IBM
Freescale Semiconductor
Avnet Inc.
General Dynamics
Motorola Satellite Comm. Inc.
Microchip Technology Inc.
Jabil Circuits Inc.
Medtronic Inc.
ON Semiconductor
Microsemi Corp.
Financial Services
Wells Fargo & Co.
Bank of America
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
American Express
Charles Schwab & Co. Inc.
USAA
Vanguard Group
Discover Financial Services LLC
#FTE Aerospace
#FTE
11,000 Raytheon Co.
11,500
3,000 Honeywell Aerospace
10,000
3,000 Luke Air Force Base - 56th Fighter Wing 5,600
2,600 Boeing Co.
5,000
5,400 Orbital Sciences
1,500
1,700 Other
#FTE
1,600 Apollo Group Inc.
10,000
1,400 US Airways
9,200
900 Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.
8,100
800 Southwest Airline
4,400
700 FedEx Express
3,900
#FTE United Postal Service
3,100
13,700 Ebay
2,000
12,500 GoDaddy.com Inc.
2,600
11,400 W.L. Gore & Associates Inc.
2,000
7,800 Insight Enterprises Inc.
1,500
3,500 ConocoPhillips Co.
1,000
3,000 Empire Southwest LLC
900
2,100 PING Inc.
800
1,900 Henkel
750
Notes : Al l rounded numbers a re es tima tes of ful l time equi va l ents provi ded by ea ch empl oyer.
Source: Phoeni x Bus i nes s Journa l Book of Li s ts ; Ari zona Republ i c
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
77. Expansions and Relocations
Source: Arizona Commerce Authority
Apple: U.S. manufacturing facility (GT Advanced Technologies) – 700 jobs in the first year.
State Farm: State Farm, selected Arizona as one of its four regional headquarters - 1.9 million SF of office
space in Tempe, 7,000 new jobs with a capital investment of $600 million.
Composite Mirror Applications: Composite Mirror Applications is a defense contractor that develops and
produces carbon fiber reinforced composite mirrors and structures.
Garmin: 140 jobs and $11 million capital investment.
Asurion: Mobile tech support center - 450 new jobs and $12 million in capital investment.
GoDaddy: Global Technology Center, 150,000-square-foot facility, 1,300 employees.
General Motors: Fourth IT Innovation Center in Chandler, 1,000 jobs, $21 million in capital investment.
STEALTH Software: Site of its U.S. headquarters, 200 jobs.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
78. Employment Composition
Greater Phoenix vs. U.S.
Source: Arizona Department of Economic Security, U.S. Department of Labor
Sector
Natural Resources & Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Goods Producing
Trade
Transportation, Warehousing
Information
Financial Activities
Services
Government
Service Producing
Non-FarmWage & Salary
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
PHX-MSA
US
0.2%
5.1%
6.4%
11.7%
0.5%
4.3%
8.9%
13.7%
17.5%
3.6%
1.6%
7.9%
44.0%
13.7%
88.3%
15.3%
3.6%
2.1%
5.9%
42.1%
17.3%
86.3%
100.0%
100.0%
80. Ja
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Employment Levels:
Greater Phoenix back to Peak in late-2015 or early 2016?
Source: ADOA
Recession Periods
2,400.0
2,200.0
2,000.0
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Peak
1,800.0
1,600.0
1,400.0
1,200.0
1,000.0
*Based on seasonally unadjusted monthly data
81. Phoenix-Mesa Employment Growth
(Ranking among all metro areas greater than 1,000,000)
Source: Arizona State University, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Year
Rank
# MSA’s
Year
Rank
1991
4
19
2003
3
25
1992
4
19
2004
3
25
1993
2
19
2005
1
26
1994
1
19
2006
1
27
1995
1
20
2007
9
28
1996
1
21
2008
24
28
1997
1
22
2009
24
25
1998
1
23
2010
24
24
1999
3
24
2011
14
25
2000
9
25
2012
6
27
2001
7
26
2013*
5
28
2002
5
25
# MSA’s
*Year-to-date, July 2013
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
82. Greater Phoenix Employment*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sectors in Decline
Net
Change
%
Change
-800
-1.3%
Sectors Improving
Net
%
Change Change
10,400
2.9%
Education & Health Services
9,100
3.7%
Leisure & Hospitality
8,800
5.0%
Construction
8,400
9.4%
Government
5,900
3.0%
Professional & Bus Services
5,700
2.0%
Financial Activities
5,000
3.4%
Information
400
1.3%
Manufacturing
Other Services
200
0.2%
0
0.0%
Trade, Transp, Utilities
Natural Resources & Mining
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
*July 2013/ July 2012
83. U.S. Has Gained 77% of Lost Jobs
2 Million Jobs (23%) Still to Recover
Peak 138 million Jan. 2008
6.7 Mil. Jobs
Regained (77%)
8.7 Million U.S.
Jobs Lost (6.4%)
Feb. 2010
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thousands of Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted
Slide stolen from Lee McPheters…
84. Arizona Has Gained 47% of Lost Jobs
167,000 Jobs (53%) Still to Recover
Peak 2,687,000 Oct. 2007
147,000 Jobs
Regained (47%)
314,000 Arizona
Jobs Lost (12%)
Sept. 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thousands of Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
85. Greater Phoenix Has Gained 47% of Lost Jobs
133,000 Jobs (53%) Still to Recover
Peak 1,932,000 July 2007
118,000 Jobs
Regained (47%)
251,000 Phoenix
Jobs Lost (13%)
Sept. 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thousands of Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
86. WHY?
(1) Significant declines in population flows.
(2) Steeper housing decline.
*** But, expect higher rates of growth in AZ
going forward. Full recovery in AZ will be
about the same as the U.S. – Late 2015
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
88. Ja
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SRP Residential Utility Hookup Percentage Growth
Greater Phoenix 2003 – 2013*
Source: SRP
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
*Data through April 2013.
96. Ja
n
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Ja 91
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5
Home Prices Indices
Greater Phoenix
1989 – 2013*
Source: Macro Markets, LLC; AMLS
MLS Index
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Case-Shiller Index
Recession Periods
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
Trendline (4.0%)
*Data through July 2013.
102. New Residential Foreclosure Notices
Greater Phoenix
Source: Information Market
10,000
8,675
7,800
8,000
6,062
6,000
4,014
4,000
3,221
2,367
2,000
1,087
1,095
983
0
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
1,274
682
772
103. Total Pending Foreclosures
Greater Phoenix
Source: Information Market
47,144
50,000
42,152
40,000
30,000
24,469
24,393
16,829
20,000
7,312
6,894
10,000
4,936
7,066
5,002
0
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
3,141
2,483
104. Greater Phoenix Single Family
Lender Owned Sales*
June 2003 – June 2013
Source: TheWilcoxReport.com
4,247
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,008
3,000
2,384
2,500
1,381
2,000
1,500
720
1,000
500
348
84
121
0
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
9
2
104
105. Total Single Family Units Occupied by Renters
2000 - 2011
Greater Phoenix
Source: American Community Survey
25%
21.8%
20.3%
18.1%
20%
16.4%
15.3%
14.1%
15%
11.7%
12.4%
11.6%
10%
5%
0%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
11.3%
11.7%
11.7%
108. Number of Active Subdivisions
Greater Phoenix
Source: CRA
800
663
700
600
568
574
665
672
687
693
710
597 607
536
512
500
400
322
300
275
255
208
200
100
0
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
181
109. In a weak economy,
population growth fails to
translate into household growth,
but when the economy begins to
strengthen, there is
pent-up demand for housing.
Source: Linneman Letter
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
110. Many renting will now buy.
Many doubled-up will now buy.
Some population growth is back.
Employment growth is occurring.
Retirees less tied to current homes.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
114. The outlook for housing is
still reasonably good
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
115. Greater Phoenix Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; Arizona Department of Administration; University of Arizona Forecasting Project
YEAR
Population
1950
374,000
1960
1970
726,183 6.9%
1,039,807 3.7%
1980
1990
2000
1,600,093 4.4%
2,238,498 3.4%
3,251,876 3.8%
2010
4,192,887 2.6%
2020
(forecast)
5,011,767 1.8%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
116. Greater Phoenix Employment
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; Arizona Department of Administration; University of Arizona Forecasting Project
YEAR
1950
74,400
1960
1970
181,700
327,200
1980
1990
636,200
1,013,300
2000
2010
1,578,400
1,686,800
2020
(forecast)
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
EMPLOYMENT
2,312,700
117. Headwinds for Single Family Market
•
•
•
•
Shortage of construction workers
Shortage of finished lots
Rising material prices
Rising interest rates
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
121. Multi-Family Market
• High prices paid for existing
properties
• Construction activity strong
• Over-building of market on the
horizon
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
124. Under any reasonable
employment growth scenario,
it will be at least 2016 before any
significant office construction
occurs
(although some sub-markets
will be sooner).
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
130. Maricopa County Retail Sales
Percent Change Year Ago*
1999 – 2013**
Source: Arizona Department of Revenue
Recession Periods
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
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Ju 9
l-9
Ja 9
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Ju 0
l-0
Ja 0
n0
Ju 1
l-0
Ja 1
n0
Ju 2
l-0
Ja 2
n0
Ju 3
l-0
Ja 3
n0
Ju 4
l-0
Ja 4
n0
Ju 5
l-0
Ja 5
n0
Ju 6
l-0
Ja 6
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Ju 7
l-0
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l-0
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l-0
Ja 9
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Ju 0
l-1
Ja 0
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n13
-20%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
*Data through May 2013
**3-month moving average
Note: January 2010 and March 2010 retail sales are estimates.
131. Maricopa County Motor Vehicle Retail Sales
Percent Change Year Ago
2006 – 2013*
Source: Arizona Department of Revenue
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
*Data through March 2013
**3-month moving average
Note: January 2010 and March 2010 retail sales are estimates.
132. Available Big Box Space
Greater Phoenix Year End 2012:
272 Spaces
7.1 Million SF
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Source: CBRE
133. What’s Happening?
• Consumers tightening their belts
and reducing debt
• Domination of retail by large
national chains
• Internet sales
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
138. The economy is improving
in both absolute and
relative terms.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
139. Arizona & Greater Phoenix–
Slow but mildly accelerating
recovery.
• No recession on the horizon
• 2013 will be slightly better than 2012
• 2014 will be better than 2013
• 2015 should be a good year
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
140. Greater Phoenix Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; Arizona Department of Administration; University of Arizona Forecasting Project
YEAR
Population
1950
374,000
1960
1970
726,183 6.9%
1,039,807 3.7%
1980
1990
2000
1,600,093 4.4%
2,238,498 3.4%
3,251,876 3.8%
2010
4,192,887 2.6%
2020
(forecast)
5,011,767 1.8%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
141. Greater Phoenix Employment
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; Arizona Department of Administration; University of Arizona Forecasting Project
YEAR
1950
74,400
1960
1970
181,700
327,200
1980
1990
636,200
1,013,300
2000
2010
1,578,400
1,686,800
2020
(forecast)
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
EMPLOYMENT
2,312,700
142. New Greater Phoenix 2014
Forecast
Source: IHS Global Insight
• 3.3% Growth – Gross Metro Product
• 2.8% Employment Growth
• Greater Phoenix economy larger than
Oregon’s and 25 other states’
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
143. For a quick analysis of
important economic data released
each week, subscribe to the
Monday Morning Quarterback
www.arizonaeconomy.com/mmq_subscribe.htm
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
144. ELLIOTT D. POLLACK
& Company
• Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis/Modeling
• Real Estate Market and Feasibility Studies
• Litigation Support
• Revenue Forecasting
• Keynote Speaking
• Public Finance and Policy Development
• Land Use Economics
• Economic Development
7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100 Scottsdale, Arizona 85251
480-423-9200 P / 480-423-5942 F / www.arizonaeconomy.com / info@edpco.com
Elliott D. Pollack & Company