The document discusses using simulations to model patient populations and healthcare systems. It introduces Synthea, an open-source tool that allows users to simulate patient populations by defining demographics and models of medical conditions and processes. Synthea then generates synthetic patient data that can be output in formats like FHIR and used to test healthcare applications and estimate outcomes. The document explains how simulations are useful when real-world data is limited and describes Synthea's framework for modeling clinical conditions and transitions between states over time.

1. Simulating Patient
Populations
Philadelphia Technology for
Value-Based Healthcare

2. Simulating Patient Populations
● Simulations in Healthcare
● Modeling Real-World Systems
● Introduction to Synthea
● Synthea Module Framework
● Coding Examples
● FHIR

3. Simulation Use Cases in
Healthcare

4. Simulations in Healthcare
What is simulation?
● Simulation is the imitation of the
operation of a real-world process or
system over time.
● Requires a model of reality be created
for the system to simulate
Why would we use simulations?
● Real world data is unavailable
● Estimation of the system are
sufficient
● The system is too complex to really
measure and analyze
● Can’t risk real-world systems

5. Left: “Harvey” from University of Miami; Right: 3DiTeams, Duke University

6. Modeling Real-World
Systems and Process

7. Modeling Reality
using Math
Simulation requires creating models for
real-world system and processes
Better models of reality result in better
simulation, lead to better results
Focus: Computer Simulations

8. Modeling Self-Harm: Real-world processes are complicated to model

9. Modeling Fibromyalgia: Real-world processes are complicated to model

10. Introduction to
Synthea
Synthetic Patient Population Simulator
https://github.com/synthetichealth/synthea

11. Synthea Allows You to Simulate a
Patient Population
● Define the demographics of your populations
● Create a model for your real-world process
○ e.g. chronic myeloid leukemia, homelessness, common cold, etc.
● Run a simulation to create a data set, output to:
○ FHIR (STU3 v3.0.1 and DSTU2 v1.0.2)
○ C-CDA
○ CSV

12. Currently Support Diseases
Top 10 Reasons Patients Visit PCP Top 10 Years of Life Lost
Routine infant/child health check Ischemic Heart Disease
Essential Hypertension Lung Cancer
Diabetes Mellitus Alzheimer’s Disease
Normal Pregnancy COPD
Respiratory Infections (Pharyngitis, Bronchitis, Sinusitis) Cerebrovascular Disease
General Adult Medical Examination Road Injuries
Disorders of Lipoid Metabolism Self-Harm
Ear Infections (Otitis Media) Diabetes Mellitus
Asthma Colorectal Cancer
Urinary Tract Infections Drug Use Disorders (limited to Opioids)

13. Generic Module
Framework

14. State Logic
Transition