The quarterly newsletter discusses the state of the global economy and investment environment. It notes that uncertainty is the biggest factor currently affecting markets and the recovery. The "dog that did nothing" refers to uncertainty, which is overlooked but explains volatility. Tactical changes are made to portfolios to hedge various risks, like diversifying internationally, owning gold/silver, and overweighting emerging markets which may see stronger growth. Women's Circle is introduced to discuss financial questions and empower women.
The document discusses the "Uncertainty Tax" as described by Professor William Sahlman - the large negative impact on markets from pervasive fear and uncertainty. It notes that markets hate uncertainty, as seen in the wild gyrating of markets. This uncertainty stems from issues like the debt ceiling negotiations, European debt crises, and mixed economic data. The advisor discusses how their investment strategy focuses on reducing exposure to this uncertainty tax by building diverse, income-producing portfolios.
The document summarizes the volatility in the stock market in 2011 and outlook for 2012. Key points:
- The S&P 500 ended 2011 unchanged from where it started, despite high daily volatility averaging 1% per day, a record.
- Factors that caused 2011 volatility like the worldwide sovereign debt crisis have not been resolved and may be exacerbated.
- Austerity measures in Greece have reduced growth needed to solve its debt crisis, and there is fear this may spread to other European nations.
- Political calls for austerity in the US may not help the economy like it does for families due to the paradox of thrift.
- 2012 is not expected to be less volatile than 2011, with
IEEE University of Moratuawa Student Branch - Newsletter 2014/2015Malintha Fernando
This document summarizes activities of the IEEE University of Moratuwa Student Branch in 2014. It discusses events organized by the student branch including an awareness session, Enumero technical workshop, participation in IEEEXtreme programming competition where they placed third, and an annual charity project. It provides information on leadership of the student branch and its affinity groups for Power and Energy Society, Robotics and Automation Society, and Women in Engineering.
This newsletter provides updates on activities and events from The American Orthopaedic Association (AOA). The main topics covered include:
- The president's message discusses the president's travels internationally and lessons learned about orthopaedic care models in other countries.
- The CORD Corner discusses challenges in providing effective feedback to residents and new approaches to objective resident evaluation using tools like milestones and online tracking.
- Other sections note the passing of several AOA members, welcome the new AOA class of 2015, announce changes to the AOA website and communications, and provide information on upcoming events and deadlines.
The document is the fall 2013 newsletter of the Arkansas AHPERD (ArkAHPERD). It provides information about the upcoming state convention in November including the president and executive director's messages, convention details, schedule, and call for membership and registration. The president's message encourages members to help ArkAHPERD "move it" in the right direction by supporting initiatives for quality physical and health education. The executive director notes changes to the national AAHPERD organization and potential impacts to physical education from new state rules. The convention will provide updates on these topics and professional development sessions over two days.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
An Aesop’s fable of the dog losing his morsel of meat to an illusion. Market volatility is normal - but pundits make it seem unusual and you should do something. Don't lose your morsels to illusions!
The document discusses the "Uncertainty Tax" as described by Professor William Sahlman - the large negative impact on markets from pervasive fear and uncertainty. It notes that markets hate uncertainty, as seen in the wild gyrating of markets. This uncertainty stems from issues like the debt ceiling negotiations, European debt crises, and mixed economic data. The advisor discusses how their investment strategy focuses on reducing exposure to this uncertainty tax by building diverse, income-producing portfolios.
The document summarizes the volatility in the stock market in 2011 and outlook for 2012. Key points:
- The S&P 500 ended 2011 unchanged from where it started, despite high daily volatility averaging 1% per day, a record.
- Factors that caused 2011 volatility like the worldwide sovereign debt crisis have not been resolved and may be exacerbated.
- Austerity measures in Greece have reduced growth needed to solve its debt crisis, and there is fear this may spread to other European nations.
- Political calls for austerity in the US may not help the economy like it does for families due to the paradox of thrift.
- 2012 is not expected to be less volatile than 2011, with
IEEE University of Moratuawa Student Branch - Newsletter 2014/2015Malintha Fernando
This document summarizes activities of the IEEE University of Moratuwa Student Branch in 2014. It discusses events organized by the student branch including an awareness session, Enumero technical workshop, participation in IEEEXtreme programming competition where they placed third, and an annual charity project. It provides information on leadership of the student branch and its affinity groups for Power and Energy Society, Robotics and Automation Society, and Women in Engineering.
This newsletter provides updates on activities and events from The American Orthopaedic Association (AOA). The main topics covered include:
- The president's message discusses the president's travels internationally and lessons learned about orthopaedic care models in other countries.
- The CORD Corner discusses challenges in providing effective feedback to residents and new approaches to objective resident evaluation using tools like milestones and online tracking.
- Other sections note the passing of several AOA members, welcome the new AOA class of 2015, announce changes to the AOA website and communications, and provide information on upcoming events and deadlines.
The document is the fall 2013 newsletter of the Arkansas AHPERD (ArkAHPERD). It provides information about the upcoming state convention in November including the president and executive director's messages, convention details, schedule, and call for membership and registration. The president's message encourages members to help ArkAHPERD "move it" in the right direction by supporting initiatives for quality physical and health education. The executive director notes changes to the national AAHPERD organization and potential impacts to physical education from new state rules. The convention will provide updates on these topics and professional development sessions over two days.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
An Aesop’s fable of the dog losing his morsel of meat to an illusion. Market volatility is normal - but pundits make it seem unusual and you should do something. Don't lose your morsels to illusions!
30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3Frank Ragol
Bill Gross provides a lengthy outlook on the current state of investment markets and the economy. He argues that after 35 years, the great bull market that began in 1981 is showing signs of ending, with asset prices reaching unsustainable levels. While declines may not be imminent, future returns will likely be low. Investors should recognize the current "sense of an ending" and shift to more defensive strategies focusing on income rather than capital gains to better weather the changing environment.
The document discusses concerns around two pillars that have supported Korea's stock market rally since 2003 starting to waver in 2007: code convergence and super-liquidity. Code convergence refers to increased corporate governance and shareholder activism, while super-liquidity describes high global liquidity. The analyst believes retail investors have been forced to buy stocks due to high housing prices displacing their cash flow. As housing becomes overstretched and interest rates rise, this dynamic could reverse and hurt the stock market. Stock selection will be important, and the analyst recommends a few "stalwart" companies to invest in.
- The document discusses problems within the hedge fund and financial industries, including high fees and losses for investors. Many top hedge funds lost over 18% of their assets in the last half of 2011.
- It introduces the Modal Geometry theory which provides a new way to analyze firms and markets based on their trading connections and relationships. This theory claims to be able to identify "likeable" firms that are more likely to gain in price over time.
- The authors have applied this theory through their own investments, claiming annual returns of 29% on average, and argue the financial industry should consider this new framework rather than existing economic theories.
David Wilcock - Financial Tyranny, The Trillion Dollar LawsuitExopolitics Hungary
A 111-page lawsuit was filed alleging a vast conspiracy involving trillions of dollars worth of financial instruments that were stolen. The lawsuit names numerous high-level defendants, including the Italian government, UN officials, and major financial institutions. The instruments were allegedly part of a sting operation carried out by an unnamed group called the "Dragon Family" to end the power of those controlling global finances. If legitimate, the lawsuit and allegations around it could represent one of the largest financial scandals in modern history and potentially lead to major geopolitical changes. The author has been investigating further to understand the full scope of the claims.
The document analyzes the cognitive and behavioral factors behind the 2008 financial crisis. It discusses how herd behavior, the availability heuristic, and groupthink led to ill-advised decisions that propagated the crisis. Herd behavior explained the housing bubble as investors followed each other into the overheated market. It also contributed to the boom and bust of the mortgage-backed securities market. The availability heuristic and groupthink affected decision making at financial institutions and government agencies. Letting Lehman Brothers fail unexpectedly triggered a global recession due to a loss of confidence propagating through herd behavior.
Four Controversial Aspects of the Financial Meltdown of 2008pkconference
This document summarizes Hyman Minsky's warnings about the inherent instability of financial systems and deregulation. It discusses how Minsky's ideas were ignored prior to the 2008 financial crisis. It then analyzes the poor response to the crisis and advocates for stronger regulation and helping homeowners instead of banks to avoid a lost decade of high unemployment and inequality.
Lattice Energy LLC-Larsen Memo re Stock Indexes vs Gold Price Ratios-August 1...Lewis Larsen
Memo prompted by anomalies in price of Gold versus price of stocks (DJIA/Gold ratio) that occurred in August 2011. Quoting: “Gold is not presently expensive because of a soon-to-be rapid acceleration in overall rate of inflation. In my view, that scenario is very unlikely, especially given the reduction in government fiscal stimulus now starting in the U.S. and Europe. Recent behavior of U.S. Treasury securities supports that notion --- yields on the long-end of the debt markets (which Fed has very little direct control over) have actually gone down significantly since the latest market break began. As of mid-session this morning, the 30-year US Treasury bond was being priced to yield 3.53%; if a pending inflationary surge were the underlying factor spooking today’s equity markets, long bond yields would be going up not down. Three-month T-bill rates are within a rounding-error of zero %; no hints of inflationary pressures there either. The fact is that the U.S. economy is still quite weak and there is little demand for short-term credit --- U.S. consumers aren't in good enough financial shape to help run-up hard asset prices and create inflationary pressures.”
The document provides an economic briefing for Q4 2009. It summarizes that while major economic indicators show the US and EU economies have returned to growth, the recovery is slow and unemployment remains very high. Housing markets especially remain weak with signs of deflation. Trade and industrial activity are starting to recover but consumer spending and confidence remain subdued. While markets have rallied strongly, the underlying economic fundamentals still suggest a long, slow recovery.
The document discusses theories and strategies related to investing, including modern portfolio theory, behavioral finance theories, and secular stock market cycles. It notes opportunities to improve upon traditional strategic asset allocation models by combining them with tactical allocation approaches. This would involve adjusting allocations between asset classes in response to changing market conditions to better protect from downside losses. The lessons learned are that markets are riskier than traditional models assume, with fat tails and potential for secular bear markets, so portfolios need strategies to manage severe downturns.
1) Writing an essay on American literature topics can be challenging due to the vastness of the field and need to narrow the focus. It also requires navigating various perspectives and critical frameworks to analyze works.
2) Crafting a compelling essay demands a deep understanding of texts as well as strong analytical and writing skills to effectively convey arguments and original interpretations.
3) Tackling an American literature essay requires diligence, critical thinking, and proficiency in literary analysis. It demands intellectual rigor and creativity to explore the richness of the American literary tradition.
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides views on specific regions including the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, and other emerging markets. It notes recent price movements and economic indicators. For most areas it expresses a negative or cautious outlook given ongoing challenges and risks in the global economy.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Nicola Arnold
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides perspectives on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. It notes that central bank actions have inflated asset prices temporarily but that the large US national debt poses long-term sustainability issues. For Japan, it expects more stimulus measures to weaken the Yen further. The outlook is mostly negative given continued risks from high debt levels and prospects for currency depreciation from monetary easing.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Tania Scott
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The henley group's market outlook may 13Gary Lansdown
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, commodities, and alternative investments. For equities, it provides views on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. Key points discussed include the weakening Japanese yen, volatility in Japanese government bonds, mixed signals in the US and European economies, and recovering housing markets in the US and UK. Overall it maintains a mostly negative outlook due to ongoing debt and economic challenges while also highlighting some positive signs in selected areas.
Exploring Writing Paragraphs And Essays Strayer UniverCarmen Sanborn
The document discusses how the field of dermatology is growing due to demand in the areas of aesthetics and skin disease treatment. Many medical residents are choosing dermatology because it offers flexibility and a variety of practice options, including managing various skin conditions and disorders. The document also mentions that some dermatologists enter the lucrative field of aesthetics procedures like cosmetic treatments.
Clinical Research Paper Outline - Argumentativemeaning.X.Fc2.ComDon Dooley
The document outlines the steps to request a paper writing service from the website HelpWriting.net:
1. Create an account with a password and email.
2. Complete a 10-minute order form providing instructions, sources, and deadline. Attach a sample if wanting the writer to mimic your style.
3. Review bids from writers and choose one based on qualifications, history, and feedback. Place a deposit to start the assignment.
4. Ensure the paper meets expectations and authorize full payment. Free revisions are provided. Multiple revisions can be requested to ensure satisfaction.
Economics theory fails to comprehend how 'money' is the consequence of trading connections creation of business processes. 'Money' is invoked by the need of society to account for the outputs in ledgers without fully accounting for the inputs. From that observation the Risk Price develops in the modal geometry of the business process that correlates the worth of credit floats created by trading connections into the worth applied to support the firm and consistently appears as a modal pattern in ledgers. That geometry is fundamental in all firms business process. The consequent need for 'money' to account for trading connections driving exchange through the business process creates the need to invoke 'money' as banking creates. Alice, meet the money multiplier that achieves the liquidity for 'money' to flow through society's business, leaving its imprint on ledgers everywhere as if a phantom.
The document summarizes the long road to global economic recovery after the 2008 crisis. It notes that recovery has been unequal, with developed nations rebounding faster than developing ones. It argues that to achieve sustainable recovery, the root causes that led to the crisis must be addressed by fixing old faults in the global economic system and regulations to prevent new ones. Nations with strong public-private partnerships and democratic institutions are best positioned for faster recovery. Productive capital spending in essential sectors like food and housing can help revive economies and benefit the majority of citizens.
Full-RAG: A modern architecture for hyper-personalizationZilliz
Mike Del Balso, CEO & Co-Founder at Tecton, presents "Full RAG," a novel approach to AI recommendation systems, aiming to push beyond the limitations of traditional models through a deep integration of contextual insights and real-time data, leveraging the Retrieval-Augmented Generation architecture. This talk will outline Full RAG's potential to significantly enhance personalization, address engineering challenges such as data management and model training, and introduce data enrichment with reranking as a key solution. Attendees will gain crucial insights into the importance of hyperpersonalization in AI, the capabilities of Full RAG for advanced personalization, and strategies for managing complex data integrations for deploying cutting-edge AI solutions.
More Related Content
Similar to Silver Oak Letter To Clients And Friends 2011 07 29 2 Q Newsletter
30638 tl bill gross investment outlook may 2015-exp 5.30.16_3Frank Ragol
Bill Gross provides a lengthy outlook on the current state of investment markets and the economy. He argues that after 35 years, the great bull market that began in 1981 is showing signs of ending, with asset prices reaching unsustainable levels. While declines may not be imminent, future returns will likely be low. Investors should recognize the current "sense of an ending" and shift to more defensive strategies focusing on income rather than capital gains to better weather the changing environment.
The document discusses concerns around two pillars that have supported Korea's stock market rally since 2003 starting to waver in 2007: code convergence and super-liquidity. Code convergence refers to increased corporate governance and shareholder activism, while super-liquidity describes high global liquidity. The analyst believes retail investors have been forced to buy stocks due to high housing prices displacing their cash flow. As housing becomes overstretched and interest rates rise, this dynamic could reverse and hurt the stock market. Stock selection will be important, and the analyst recommends a few "stalwart" companies to invest in.
- The document discusses problems within the hedge fund and financial industries, including high fees and losses for investors. Many top hedge funds lost over 18% of their assets in the last half of 2011.
- It introduces the Modal Geometry theory which provides a new way to analyze firms and markets based on their trading connections and relationships. This theory claims to be able to identify "likeable" firms that are more likely to gain in price over time.
- The authors have applied this theory through their own investments, claiming annual returns of 29% on average, and argue the financial industry should consider this new framework rather than existing economic theories.
David Wilcock - Financial Tyranny, The Trillion Dollar LawsuitExopolitics Hungary
A 111-page lawsuit was filed alleging a vast conspiracy involving trillions of dollars worth of financial instruments that were stolen. The lawsuit names numerous high-level defendants, including the Italian government, UN officials, and major financial institutions. The instruments were allegedly part of a sting operation carried out by an unnamed group called the "Dragon Family" to end the power of those controlling global finances. If legitimate, the lawsuit and allegations around it could represent one of the largest financial scandals in modern history and potentially lead to major geopolitical changes. The author has been investigating further to understand the full scope of the claims.
The document analyzes the cognitive and behavioral factors behind the 2008 financial crisis. It discusses how herd behavior, the availability heuristic, and groupthink led to ill-advised decisions that propagated the crisis. Herd behavior explained the housing bubble as investors followed each other into the overheated market. It also contributed to the boom and bust of the mortgage-backed securities market. The availability heuristic and groupthink affected decision making at financial institutions and government agencies. Letting Lehman Brothers fail unexpectedly triggered a global recession due to a loss of confidence propagating through herd behavior.
Four Controversial Aspects of the Financial Meltdown of 2008pkconference
This document summarizes Hyman Minsky's warnings about the inherent instability of financial systems and deregulation. It discusses how Minsky's ideas were ignored prior to the 2008 financial crisis. It then analyzes the poor response to the crisis and advocates for stronger regulation and helping homeowners instead of banks to avoid a lost decade of high unemployment and inequality.
Lattice Energy LLC-Larsen Memo re Stock Indexes vs Gold Price Ratios-August 1...Lewis Larsen
Memo prompted by anomalies in price of Gold versus price of stocks (DJIA/Gold ratio) that occurred in August 2011. Quoting: “Gold is not presently expensive because of a soon-to-be rapid acceleration in overall rate of inflation. In my view, that scenario is very unlikely, especially given the reduction in government fiscal stimulus now starting in the U.S. and Europe. Recent behavior of U.S. Treasury securities supports that notion --- yields on the long-end of the debt markets (which Fed has very little direct control over) have actually gone down significantly since the latest market break began. As of mid-session this morning, the 30-year US Treasury bond was being priced to yield 3.53%; if a pending inflationary surge were the underlying factor spooking today’s equity markets, long bond yields would be going up not down. Three-month T-bill rates are within a rounding-error of zero %; no hints of inflationary pressures there either. The fact is that the U.S. economy is still quite weak and there is little demand for short-term credit --- U.S. consumers aren't in good enough financial shape to help run-up hard asset prices and create inflationary pressures.”
The document provides an economic briefing for Q4 2009. It summarizes that while major economic indicators show the US and EU economies have returned to growth, the recovery is slow and unemployment remains very high. Housing markets especially remain weak with signs of deflation. Trade and industrial activity are starting to recover but consumer spending and confidence remain subdued. While markets have rallied strongly, the underlying economic fundamentals still suggest a long, slow recovery.
The document discusses theories and strategies related to investing, including modern portfolio theory, behavioral finance theories, and secular stock market cycles. It notes opportunities to improve upon traditional strategic asset allocation models by combining them with tactical allocation approaches. This would involve adjusting allocations between asset classes in response to changing market conditions to better protect from downside losses. The lessons learned are that markets are riskier than traditional models assume, with fat tails and potential for secular bear markets, so portfolios need strategies to manage severe downturns.
1) Writing an essay on American literature topics can be challenging due to the vastness of the field and need to narrow the focus. It also requires navigating various perspectives and critical frameworks to analyze works.
2) Crafting a compelling essay demands a deep understanding of texts as well as strong analytical and writing skills to effectively convey arguments and original interpretations.
3) Tackling an American literature essay requires diligence, critical thinking, and proficiency in literary analysis. It demands intellectual rigor and creativity to explore the richness of the American literary tradition.
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides views on specific regions including the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, and other emerging markets. It notes recent price movements and economic indicators. For most areas it expresses a negative or cautious outlook given ongoing challenges and risks in the global economy.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Nicola Arnold
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides perspectives on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. It notes that central bank actions have inflated asset prices temporarily but that the large US national debt poses long-term sustainability issues. For Japan, it expects more stimulus measures to weaken the Yen further. The outlook is mostly negative given continued risks from high debt levels and prospects for currency depreciation from monetary easing.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Tania Scott
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The henley group's market outlook may 13Gary Lansdown
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, commodities, and alternative investments. For equities, it provides views on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. Key points discussed include the weakening Japanese yen, volatility in Japanese government bonds, mixed signals in the US and European economies, and recovering housing markets in the US and UK. Overall it maintains a mostly negative outlook due to ongoing debt and economic challenges while also highlighting some positive signs in selected areas.
Exploring Writing Paragraphs And Essays Strayer UniverCarmen Sanborn
The document discusses how the field of dermatology is growing due to demand in the areas of aesthetics and skin disease treatment. Many medical residents are choosing dermatology because it offers flexibility and a variety of practice options, including managing various skin conditions and disorders. The document also mentions that some dermatologists enter the lucrative field of aesthetics procedures like cosmetic treatments.
Clinical Research Paper Outline - Argumentativemeaning.X.Fc2.ComDon Dooley
The document outlines the steps to request a paper writing service from the website HelpWriting.net:
1. Create an account with a password and email.
2. Complete a 10-minute order form providing instructions, sources, and deadline. Attach a sample if wanting the writer to mimic your style.
3. Review bids from writers and choose one based on qualifications, history, and feedback. Place a deposit to start the assignment.
4. Ensure the paper meets expectations and authorize full payment. Free revisions are provided. Multiple revisions can be requested to ensure satisfaction.
Economics theory fails to comprehend how 'money' is the consequence of trading connections creation of business processes. 'Money' is invoked by the need of society to account for the outputs in ledgers without fully accounting for the inputs. From that observation the Risk Price develops in the modal geometry of the business process that correlates the worth of credit floats created by trading connections into the worth applied to support the firm and consistently appears as a modal pattern in ledgers. That geometry is fundamental in all firms business process. The consequent need for 'money' to account for trading connections driving exchange through the business process creates the need to invoke 'money' as banking creates. Alice, meet the money multiplier that achieves the liquidity for 'money' to flow through society's business, leaving its imprint on ledgers everywhere as if a phantom.
The document summarizes the long road to global economic recovery after the 2008 crisis. It notes that recovery has been unequal, with developed nations rebounding faster than developing ones. It argues that to achieve sustainable recovery, the root causes that led to the crisis must be addressed by fixing old faults in the global economic system and regulations to prevent new ones. Nations with strong public-private partnerships and democratic institutions are best positioned for faster recovery. Productive capital spending in essential sectors like food and housing can help revive economies and benefit the majority of citizens.
Similar to Silver Oak Letter To Clients And Friends 2011 07 29 2 Q Newsletter (20)
Full-RAG: A modern architecture for hyper-personalizationZilliz
Mike Del Balso, CEO & Co-Founder at Tecton, presents "Full RAG," a novel approach to AI recommendation systems, aiming to push beyond the limitations of traditional models through a deep integration of contextual insights and real-time data, leveraging the Retrieval-Augmented Generation architecture. This talk will outline Full RAG's potential to significantly enhance personalization, address engineering challenges such as data management and model training, and introduce data enrichment with reranking as a key solution. Attendees will gain crucial insights into the importance of hyperpersonalization in AI, the capabilities of Full RAG for advanced personalization, and strategies for managing complex data integrations for deploying cutting-edge AI solutions.
Essentials of Automations: The Art of Triggers and Actions in FMESafe Software
In this second installment of our Essentials of Automations webinar series, we’ll explore the landscape of triggers and actions, guiding you through the nuances of authoring and adapting workspaces for seamless automations. Gain an understanding of the full spectrum of triggers and actions available in FME, empowering you to enhance your workspaces for efficient automation.
We’ll kick things off by showcasing the most commonly used event-based triggers, introducing you to various automation workflows like manual triggers, schedules, directory watchers, and more. Plus, see how these elements play out in real scenarios.
Whether you’re tweaking your current setup or building from the ground up, this session will arm you with the tools and insights needed to transform your FME usage into a powerhouse of productivity. Join us to discover effective strategies that simplify complex processes, enhancing your productivity and transforming your data management practices with FME. Let’s turn complexity into clarity and make your workspaces work wonders!
Removing Uninteresting Bytes in Software FuzzingAftab Hussain
Imagine a world where software fuzzing, the process of mutating bytes in test seeds to uncover hidden and erroneous program behaviors, becomes faster and more effective. A lot depends on the initial seeds, which can significantly dictate the trajectory of a fuzzing campaign, particularly in terms of how long it takes to uncover interesting behaviour in your code. We introduce DIAR, a technique designed to speedup fuzzing campaigns by pinpointing and eliminating those uninteresting bytes in the seeds. Picture this: instead of wasting valuable resources on meaningless mutations in large, bloated seeds, DIAR removes the unnecessary bytes, streamlining the entire process.
In this work, we equipped AFL, a popular fuzzer, with DIAR and examined two critical Linux libraries -- Libxml's xmllint, a tool for parsing xml documents, and Binutil's readelf, an essential debugging and security analysis command-line tool used to display detailed information about ELF (Executable and Linkable Format). Our preliminary results show that AFL+DIAR does not only discover new paths more quickly but also achieves higher coverage overall. This work thus showcases how starting with lean and optimized seeds can lead to faster, more comprehensive fuzzing campaigns -- and DIAR helps you find such seeds.
- These are slides of the talk given at IEEE International Conference on Software Testing Verification and Validation Workshop, ICSTW 2022.
Communications Mining Series - Zero to Hero - Session 1DianaGray10
This session provides introduction to UiPath Communication Mining, importance and platform overview. You will acquire a good understand of the phases in Communication Mining as we go over the platform with you. Topics covered:
• Communication Mining Overview
• Why is it important?
• How can it help today’s business and the benefits
• Phases in Communication Mining
• Demo on Platform overview
• Q/A
Sudheer Mechineni, Head of Application Frameworks, Standard Chartered Bank
Discover how Standard Chartered Bank harnessed the power of Neo4j to transform complex data access challenges into a dynamic, scalable graph database solution. This keynote will cover their journey from initial adoption to deploying a fully automated, enterprise-grade causal cluster, highlighting key strategies for modelling organisational changes and ensuring robust disaster recovery. Learn how these innovations have not only enhanced Standard Chartered Bank’s data infrastructure but also positioned them as pioneers in the banking sector’s adoption of graph technology.
Programming Foundation Models with DSPy - Meetup SlidesZilliz
Prompting language models is hard, while programming language models is easy. In this talk, I will discuss the state-of-the-art framework DSPy for programming foundation models with its powerful optimizers and runtime constraint system.
GraphRAG for Life Science to increase LLM accuracyTomaz Bratanic
GraphRAG for life science domain, where you retriever information from biomedical knowledge graphs using LLMs to increase the accuracy and performance of generated answers
Goodbye Windows 11: Make Way for Nitrux Linux 3.5.0!SOFTTECHHUB
As the digital landscape continually evolves, operating systems play a critical role in shaping user experiences and productivity. The launch of Nitrux Linux 3.5.0 marks a significant milestone, offering a robust alternative to traditional systems such as Windows 11. This article delves into the essence of Nitrux Linux 3.5.0, exploring its unique features, advantages, and how it stands as a compelling choice for both casual users and tech enthusiasts.
GraphSummit Singapore | The Art of the Possible with Graph - Q2 2024Neo4j
Neha Bajwa, Vice President of Product Marketing, Neo4j
Join us as we explore breakthrough innovations enabled by interconnected data and AI. Discover firsthand how organizations use relationships in data to uncover contextual insights and solve our most pressing challenges – from optimizing supply chains, detecting fraud, and improving customer experiences to accelerating drug discoveries.
Let's Integrate MuleSoft RPA, COMPOSER, APM with AWS IDP along with Slackshyamraj55
Discover the seamless integration of RPA (Robotic Process Automation), COMPOSER, and APM with AWS IDP enhanced with Slack notifications. Explore how these technologies converge to streamline workflows, optimize performance, and ensure secure access, all while leveraging the power of AWS IDP and real-time communication via Slack notifications.
Maruthi Prithivirajan, Head of ASEAN & IN Solution Architecture, Neo4j
Get an inside look at the latest Neo4j innovations that enable relationship-driven intelligence at scale. Learn more about the newest cloud integrations and product enhancements that make Neo4j an essential choice for developers building apps with interconnected data and generative AI.
Unlocking Productivity: Leveraging the Potential of Copilot in Microsoft 365, a presentation by Christoforos Vlachos, Senior Solutions Manager – Modern Workplace, Uni Systems
Silver Oak Letter To Clients And Friends 2011 07 29 2 Q Newsletter
1. JULY 2011 QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER
THE WORLD ECONOMY & THE CASE OF THE
D OG T HAT DID NOT BARK
I have always liked detective stories. Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): "Is
Judging by the popularity of the character there any other point to which you
and series “Columbo” starring the late would wish to draw my attention?"
Peter Falk, I’m certainly not in the minor-
Holmes: "To the curious incident of
ity.
the dog in the night-time."
Sherlock Holmes was one of my favorite
Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the
sleuths. I wonder how he would have ap-
night-time."
proached solving the
enigmas that cur- Holmes: "That was
rently perplex our the curious inci-
global financial lead- dent."
ers. At Silver Oak, we
One of the most often function as
memorable of the sleuths – economic
Sherlock Holmes sleuths! The case
JOEL FRAMSON & short stories was Two modern-day “financial sleuths”: Federal Reserve in which we are
ERIC BRUCK, “Silver Blaze”, a tale Chairman Ben Bernanke & Jean-Claude Trichet – currently mired
PRINCIPALS
about the disappear- President of the ECB (European Central Bank) might be titled, “The
ance of a race horse. The most important Case of the Disappearing Worldwide Fi-
clue in solving the mystery came not from nancial Recovery.” Critical investment
Silver Oak Wealth Advisors, LLC the obvious clues, including the events decisions hinge on correctly interpreting
10866 Wilshire Blvd., Ste 1270 leading up to the crime, but from a dog diverse economic clues and the solving of
Los Angeles, CA 90024 that did not bark. This clue became this Case. How is “the dog who did noth-
Phone: (310) 207-4800 known as the “curious incident of the dog ing analogous to an economic clue? Read
Fax: (310) 943-0398 in the night-time”: on.
www.SilverOakwa.com
An Invitation to Women’s Circle
When: 5:15pm - 7:00 pm
Last Tuesday of each month
Where: 10866 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 1270. Los Angeles, CA 90024
Refreshment will be served. Please RSVP at 310.207.4800 or email to lcao@silveroakwa.com
See page 6 for more details
2. CHAPTER ONE: 2008-2009 AVOIDING THE ABYS S
There are a number of key clues that we might follow as potential evidence in our case. This graphic of the per-
formance of the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund is one piece of evidence. The big question back in March of
2009, lest you forget, was whether the market could keep on falling. The biggest fear at the time was that the
path of the market would replicate what the stock market did during the Great Depression, as in the next chart:
3. Fortunately, Ben Bernanke is a history buff. Fearing By reducing interest rates to virtually zero, their strat-
that a market decline of 56% could lead to a further egy included inducing people to invest in more risky
decline all the way down to 89%, Ben and his fellow assets. As 2009 came to a close, it appeared that the
fiscal detectives believed that a massive infusion of stimulative actions were effective as the stock market
cash into the economy would help solve the dilemma. rose dramatically.
CHAPTER TWO – 2010 TO 2011
Optimism seemed pervasive and it seemed that the Our rate of economic growth as measured by GDP had
country had dodged a disaster and was on the road to appeared to be increasing to a fairly healthy rate of
recovery. The stock market continued to rise through 3.0% to 3.1% annually in the fourth quarter of 2010,
March of 2010. Although a substantial “correction” leading some economists to look for even higher growth
ensued through the summer, the market finished in 2011. However, as the first quarter of 2011 ended,
stronger by year-end. the rate of GDP growth had slowed to only 1.9%. What
other factor might help explain this growth slowdown?
Could we then say, “case closed?” Not so fast.
Domestically, there were many signs revealing the fra- We need to look to the jobless rate as our next clue to
gility of the “recovery.” Food and oil prices were rising, understanding this decline in the GDP rate of growth.
creating a concern that inflation and higher gasoline By June, 2011, the unemployment rate that had dipped
prices might reduce consumer spending. By May, a to 9.1% rose again to 9.2%. More people were out of
major index of consumer sentiment showed a dramatic work. We can look at a graph of the labor force to gain
decline. some perspective.
4. These employment charts tell us that only 2.1 million continue to decline putting continued strain both on con-
jobs have been created since the “recovery” began. sumers and on the banks holding underperforming
Since we had lost 8.8 million jobs during the recession, mortgages. Since 70% of our GDP is dependent on con-
the important point is that 6.7 million people who were sumer spending, the combination of high unemployment
employed in 2007 are still out of work. This number and depressed home prices serve to put a damper on
does not include people who have given up and have consumer spending. Therefore, while there is anecdotal
dropped out of the labor force. evidence alluding to a strengthening of the economy,
there are still too many critical clues to be uncovered
Home prices and the sale of new and existing homes before concluding that this case is solved.
2011 – 2012
When solving a mystery there are often too many clues. Factor Framework (RFF) for evaluating the risk/reward
Some turn out to be red herrings, distracting us from the paradigm. Risk is a little like speed in that a little at the
important issues. Other clues appear to be quite obvi- right time and place is good but too much can be
ous because they become part of the news bytes we deadly.
continually see and hear in our prolific news media.
There are three components to our RFF method. First,
We must examine and filter both the positive and nega- it is critical to understand the various types of risk that
tive input to independently determine how to under- might affect any given investment. Second, we must
stand “The Case of the Disappearing Worldwide Recov- have a way of quantifying the magnitude of each invest-
ery.” However, after consideration of all the clues, most ment risk. Third, we must have an understanding of
of which involve either economic facts or an interpreta- the macro-economic environment we find ourselves in
tion of the available data, we believe we have found this at a given time.
case’s “dog that did nothing in the night-time.”
While every investment vehicle typically has a funda-
The ”dog that did nothing” refers to Uncertainty. It is the mental value that supports its price, each also is af-
clue that is right in front of us. Yet because it cannot be fected by other factors that are purely subjective. For
quantified like many statistical factors, it tends to be example, consumer sentiment, the momentum of the
overlooked or underappreciated by analysts, Wall Street, markets, and the news headlines are subjective factors
and politicians. that often move our markets.
Uncertainty breeds fear and “no confidence” votes when These subjective factors have been the primary drivers
it comes to investment markets. Like the dog that didn’t of our equity markets this past year, initiated by the
bark, uncertainty is the silent factor that explains a big Fed’s August 2010 announcement of QE2. We have
part of the volatility seen in the investment world. No since seen a phenomenon that the press has labeled
one likes Uncertainty – not businesses that need to fac- “risk-on” trading periods and “risk-off” periods. De-
tor taxes and interest rates into their growth targets, not pending on the news, one day the trading activity may
banks who are afraid to lend, not investors who want to be “risk-on” and the next day the market drops and is
know how our fiscal policies will impact their portfolios, described as having switched to “risk-off”, as traders
and not the average citizen who is fed up with our politi- switch into bonds. Such is the whimsical nature of
cal system which seems incapable of doing the right traders who attempt to capitalize on, or avoid, the sub-
thing for our country. jective factors moving our markets.
Investing In This Time of Uncertainty
As we decide where to invest the hard-earned dollars of
At Silver Oak, we utilize a process which we call a Risk our clients, uncertainty is the one overriding factor that
5. we find to be the most persuasive in explaining why the ades. When can you recall our political system ever
risk-on or risk-off periods repeat themselves so often. being so divided? Can you recall a period of time when
major European countries were on the verge of default-
If you have ever watched a squirrel try to cross the ing on their debt? In the Middle East, a region in which
street in front of your car, perhaps you will gain a per- we still depend on for critical energy needs, we are ob-
spective on what we mean by uncertainty. The squirrel serving a revolution which may embroil the whole area
stops and alternates between going back or continuing in conflicts and civil wars for many years. And we must
across the street until finally going one way or the mention the heretofore inconceivable possibility that
other. Our nation, in fact the whole developed world, is the U.S. could default on its obligations.
mired in oceans of uncertainty not experienced in dec-
WE ARE SLEEPING WITH ONE EYE OPEN
Anecdotally, we know that this uncertainty has been rency is to add to our gold and silver positions. Another
weighing on our clients psyche based on the phone is to take a position in an exchange traded fund de-
calls we have received over the past several months. nominated in a strong currency, such as Swiss francs.
Most recently, questions have focused on the portfolio
consequences if our legislators do not reach an accord There is one additional input to share with you as we
on raising the debt ceiling, causing the U.S. to default consider our portfolio recommendations. Our analysis
on its obligations. of risk, by definition, considers the various known risks
that we have discussed earlier. However, over the past
We continue to monitor the numerous issues contribut- few years, we have too often been surprised by previ-
ing to this uncertainty. Our Risk Factor Framework in- ously unknown global risks. These have included geo-
volves assigning probabilities to the potential occur- political factors as well as major environmental im-
rence of any specific event with a concomitant assess- pacts. These events cannot be predicted and are diffi-
ment of the magnitude such occurrence would have on cult, therefore, to quantify.
various investments. While the failure to raise the
debt ceiling is a current event which concerns us, the To hedge against the possibility of unknown risks creat-
bigger long-term issue concerning us is the size of our ing a major negative impact on our clients’ portfolios,
nation’s debt itself. The investment consequences of we have implemented an overall general reduction in
not demonstrating to the rating agencies and to those portfolio risk. In speaking about this recently to a col-
countries buying our bonds that we have a viable plan league, we used the analogy of always sleeping with
are serious. one eye open. Her response was very supportive as
she pointed out that we are sleeping with one eye open
With regard to the debt ceiling issue before Congress, so that our clients do not need to.
an example will clarify how we might implement our
RFF process. For example, if we feel that there is a The tactical changes we make to client portfolios are
high probability that the U.S. might default on its debts typically in response to our reassessment of the most
and that such default would immediately cause interest imminent risks (and or opportunities) that we are evalu-
rates to rise significantly, we would protect our domes- ating. Our Low Risk Bucket, for example, currently con-
tic bond portfolio value by either selling certain bonds tains more international bonds than we owned previ-
or by creating a hedging strategy to protect the down- ously. We believe such diversification will help protect
side. One hedging strategy against the global “no confi- portfolios from rising domestic interest rates while cap-
dence” risk such an event might pose against our cur- turing potentially higher returns in other parts of the
world.
6. As mentioned above, we continue to own precious met- vestment world may have investment opportunities for
als in our Higher Risk Bucket. While such investments market timing.
are purely speculative in nature, they also provide a
tool to hedge the unknown risks such as those associ- We believe that asset and risk allocation should be
ated with the reduced confidence in the U.S. dollar, based on expected future returns of various asset
while also addressing other specific known risks. classes, not based on looking in the rear view mirror at
what historical returns have been. The typical invest-
The domestic equity markets continue to vacillate be- ment caveat that past performance is not a guarantee
tween euphoria and pessimism. Therefore, we con- of future returns is a saying that we take to heart.
tinue to hold equities in various mutual fund formats.
We continue to believe, however, that the emerging In conclusion, we continue to work diligently in order to
market countries will experience stronger growth over be effective in our dual mandate of both protecting our
the next few years than will the developed world. Con- clients’ wealth and growing it in a prudent manner.
sequently, we plan to overweight both the equities and While we know that these quarterly letters tend to be
fixed income vehicles in that part of the world. long since we cover a lot of territory, we hope that they
are informative and meaningful to you.
By definition, as our interpretation of the various risks
change, we will seek to make timely tactical changes in As always, if you have any questions or feedback for us,
our portfolios. But after having said that, we do need to please do not hesitate to call us.
strongly mention one important philosophical point.
We are not market timers! No one can consistently Sincerely,
pick the bottom of a cycle or the top of a cycle. Please
do not mistake making tactical changes in response to
Joel Framson
identifying risks and determining which part of the in- President
Silver Oak Wealth Advisors Introduces Women’s Circle
Life's transitions bring questions about money and resources. How much is enough? Will I have enough and how
will I know? How do I define richness of life? What resources are essential for my own happiness? What resources
will I need to maintain my lifestyle when I am no longer working? What responsibilities in terms of resources and
support do I hold for those I love?
Women’s Circle provides an opportunity for women to talk, learn, and share about money.
We will explore the powerful money questions with other women in a confidential and supportive environment. Let's
talk to each other about what truly matters to us and learn the best from sharing our own stories and experiences!
If you or someone you know might benefit from participating in Women’s Circle, please contact Linda Cao for infor-
mation, by email Lcao@silveroakwa.com or telephone (310) 207-4800.
Engage, Educate & Empower Women for a Better Financial Well-being