There are some Executive Leadership characteristics that are more important than others. I've identified 22 of those which I consider the most critical for senior leaders.
Key Words: Leadership, Executive, Management, Traits, Values, Skills, Obstacles, Failure, Persistence, Competence, Adaptability, Organization, Positive Work Culture.
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How To Win In Every Scenario - Book launch in Phoenix, AZRom Gayoso, Ph.D.
This is the presentation for the book launch that took place in Phoenix at Changing Hands Bookstore located on 300 W. Camelback Rd.
Scenario Planning was developed in 1961 and found many applications. The author created a 5-step method to help readers create their own scenarios. The book covers the technique and three different business cases: a moral dilemma in the funding for Stem Cell research, a big problem in the need to deploy more renewable energy solutions to fight climate change and a current crisis - the conflict in Ukraine.
There are some Executive Leadership characteristics that are more important than others. I've identified 22 of those which I consider the most critical for senior leaders.
Key Words: Leadership, Executive, Management, Traits, Values, Skills, Obstacles, Failure, Persistence, Competence, Adaptability, Organization, Positive Work Culture.
office space toronto, toronto office space, office search toronto, office space in toronto, office rentals toronto, commercial office space, commercial real estate toronto, office rent toronto, toronto offices for lease
How To Win In Every Scenario - Book launch in Phoenix, AZRom Gayoso, Ph.D.
This is the presentation for the book launch that took place in Phoenix at Changing Hands Bookstore located on 300 W. Camelback Rd.
Scenario Planning was developed in 1961 and found many applications. The author created a 5-step method to help readers create their own scenarios. The book covers the technique and three different business cases: a moral dilemma in the funding for Stem Cell research, a big problem in the need to deploy more renewable energy solutions to fight climate change and a current crisis - the conflict in Ukraine.
Catherine Mosbacher with the Center for Houston's Future presents two very different Scenarios for the future of H-Town. This is her powerpoint presentation. The videos on the two scenarios are separated out for you to view individually.
Lecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - SpaceStanford University
Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, stanford, Steve blank, AI, ML, AI/ML, china, unmanned, autonomy, space, space force, general Raymond, space command
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4 Winter 2020 Page 1 .docxSALU18
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4
Winter 2020 Page 1
Assignment # 4
Decision Analysis and Project Scheduling
ADM2302 students are reminded that submitted assignments must be typed (i.e. can NOT be hand
written), neat, readable, and well-organized. Assignment marks will be adjusted for sloppiness, poor
grammar, spelling, for technical errors as well as if you submit a PDF file.
The assignment is to be submitted electronically as a single Word Document file via Brightspace by
Friday April 3rd prior to 23:59. Front page of the Word document has to include title of the assignment,
course code and section, student name and student number. Second page is the individual/group
statement of integrity that must be signed.
E-mail questions related to the assignment should be sent to the Teaching Assistant or posted on the
Brightspace course website “Discussion page” (viewed by all).
Section M: Parisa Keshavarz ([email protected])
Section N: : Niki Khorasanizadeh ([email protected])
Section P: Makbule Kandakoglu ([email protected])
Section Q: Afshin Kamyabniya ([email protected])
Problem 1: Payoffs/Decision Table (13 points)
A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities
exceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year.
Estimated profits (in $ thousands) under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the
table below.
NEXT YEAR’S DEMAND
Alternative Low High
Do nothing
Expand
Subcontract
$50**
20
40
$60
80
70
** Profit in $ thousands.
Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is:
a. The optimistic approach? (3 points)
b. The conservative approach? (3 points)
c. Minimize the regret? (7 points)
Problem 2: Payoffs/Decision Table (15 points)
Dorothy Stanyard has three major routes to take to work. She can take Tennessee Street the entire way,
she can take several back streets to work, or she can use the expressway. The traffic patterns are,
however, very complex. Under good conditions, Tennessee Street is the fastest route. When Tennessee
is congested, one of the other routes is preferable. Over the past two months, Dorothy has tried each of
route several times under different traffic conditions. This information is summarized in minutes of
travel time to work in the following table:
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4
Winter 2020 Page 2
No Traffic Congestion
(Minutes)
Mild Traffic
Congestion
(Minutes)
Severe Traffic
Congestion
(Minutes)
Tennessee Street
Back roads
Expressway
15
20
30
30
25
30
45
35
30
In the past 60 days, Dorothy encountered severe traffic congestion 10 days and mild traffic congestion
20 days. Assume that the past 60 days are typical of traffi.
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4 Winter 2020 Page 1 .docxdaniahendric
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4
Winter 2020 Page 1
Assignment # 4
Decision Analysis and Project Scheduling
ADM2302 students are reminded that submitted assignments must be typed (i.e. can NOT be hand
written), neat, readable, and well-organized. Assignment marks will be adjusted for sloppiness, poor
grammar, spelling, for technical errors as well as if you submit a PDF file.
The assignment is to be submitted electronically as a single Word Document file via Brightspace by
Friday April 3rd prior to 23:59. Front page of the Word document has to include title of the assignment,
course code and section, student name and student number. Second page is the individual/group
statement of integrity that must be signed.
E-mail questions related to the assignment should be sent to the Teaching Assistant or posted on the
Brightspace course website “Discussion page” (viewed by all).
Section M: Parisa Keshavarz ([email protected])
Section N: : Niki Khorasanizadeh ([email protected])
Section P: Makbule Kandakoglu ([email protected])
Section Q: Afshin Kamyabniya ([email protected])
Problem 1: Payoffs/Decision Table (13 points)
A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities
exceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year.
Estimated profits (in $ thousands) under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the
table below.
NEXT YEAR’S DEMAND
Alternative Low High
Do nothing
Expand
Subcontract
$50**
20
40
$60
80
70
** Profit in $ thousands.
Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is:
a. The optimistic approach? (3 points)
b. The conservative approach? (3 points)
c. Minimize the regret? (7 points)
Problem 2: Payoffs/Decision Table (15 points)
Dorothy Stanyard has three major routes to take to work. She can take Tennessee Street the entire way,
she can take several back streets to work, or she can use the expressway. The traffic patterns are,
however, very complex. Under good conditions, Tennessee Street is the fastest route. When Tennessee
is congested, one of the other routes is preferable. Over the past two months, Dorothy has tried each of
route several times under different traffic conditions. This information is summarized in minutes of
travel time to work in the following table:
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4
Winter 2020 Page 2
No Traffic Congestion
(Minutes)
Mild Traffic
Congestion
(Minutes)
Severe Traffic
Congestion
(Minutes)
Tennessee Street
Back roads
Expressway
15
20
30
30
25
30
45
35
30
In the past 60 days, Dorothy encountered severe traffic congestion 10 days and mild traffic congestion
20 days. Assume that the past 60 days are typical of traffi ...
How to define a strategy in order to face change? Defining a system, identifying of the forces of change and plausible scenarios, as well as defining a strategy, are some of the essential steps to define a good foresight strategy. Please learn more by checking out this presentation.
Check out "Empowering local organisations through foresight" by Robin Bourgeois, Senior Foresight Advisor, GFAR Secretariat at: http://bit.ly/17GoTt4
Diplomado Ejecutivo en Gerencia Política y Gobernanza Estratégicasebastian kraljevich
Información sobre el nuevo programa de The Gradiate School of Political Management, GSPM, en The George Washington University:
Diplomado Ejecutivo en Gerencia Política y Gobernanza Estratégica, On Line y en español.
Catherine Mosbacher with the Center for Houston's Future presents two very different Scenarios for the future of H-Town. This is her powerpoint presentation. The videos on the two scenarios are separated out for you to view individually.
Lecture 7 - Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition - SpaceStanford University
Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, stanford, Steve blank, AI, ML, AI/ML, china, unmanned, autonomy, space, space force, general Raymond, space command
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4 Winter 2020 Page 1 .docxSALU18
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4
Winter 2020 Page 1
Assignment # 4
Decision Analysis and Project Scheduling
ADM2302 students are reminded that submitted assignments must be typed (i.e. can NOT be hand
written), neat, readable, and well-organized. Assignment marks will be adjusted for sloppiness, poor
grammar, spelling, for technical errors as well as if you submit a PDF file.
The assignment is to be submitted electronically as a single Word Document file via Brightspace by
Friday April 3rd prior to 23:59. Front page of the Word document has to include title of the assignment,
course code and section, student name and student number. Second page is the individual/group
statement of integrity that must be signed.
E-mail questions related to the assignment should be sent to the Teaching Assistant or posted on the
Brightspace course website “Discussion page” (viewed by all).
Section M: Parisa Keshavarz ([email protected])
Section N: : Niki Khorasanizadeh ([email protected])
Section P: Makbule Kandakoglu ([email protected])
Section Q: Afshin Kamyabniya ([email protected])
Problem 1: Payoffs/Decision Table (13 points)
A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities
exceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year.
Estimated profits (in $ thousands) under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the
table below.
NEXT YEAR’S DEMAND
Alternative Low High
Do nothing
Expand
Subcontract
$50**
20
40
$60
80
70
** Profit in $ thousands.
Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is:
a. The optimistic approach? (3 points)
b. The conservative approach? (3 points)
c. Minimize the regret? (7 points)
Problem 2: Payoffs/Decision Table (15 points)
Dorothy Stanyard has three major routes to take to work. She can take Tennessee Street the entire way,
she can take several back streets to work, or she can use the expressway. The traffic patterns are,
however, very complex. Under good conditions, Tennessee Street is the fastest route. When Tennessee
is congested, one of the other routes is preferable. Over the past two months, Dorothy has tried each of
route several times under different traffic conditions. This information is summarized in minutes of
travel time to work in the following table:
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4
Winter 2020 Page 2
No Traffic Congestion
(Minutes)
Mild Traffic
Congestion
(Minutes)
Severe Traffic
Congestion
(Minutes)
Tennessee Street
Back roads
Expressway
15
20
30
30
25
30
45
35
30
In the past 60 days, Dorothy encountered severe traffic congestion 10 days and mild traffic congestion
20 days. Assume that the past 60 days are typical of traffi.
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4 Winter 2020 Page 1 .docxdaniahendric
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4
Winter 2020 Page 1
Assignment # 4
Decision Analysis and Project Scheduling
ADM2302 students are reminded that submitted assignments must be typed (i.e. can NOT be hand
written), neat, readable, and well-organized. Assignment marks will be adjusted for sloppiness, poor
grammar, spelling, for technical errors as well as if you submit a PDF file.
The assignment is to be submitted electronically as a single Word Document file via Brightspace by
Friday April 3rd prior to 23:59. Front page of the Word document has to include title of the assignment,
course code and section, student name and student number. Second page is the individual/group
statement of integrity that must be signed.
E-mail questions related to the assignment should be sent to the Teaching Assistant or posted on the
Brightspace course website “Discussion page” (viewed by all).
Section M: Parisa Keshavarz ([email protected])
Section N: : Niki Khorasanizadeh ([email protected])
Section P: Makbule Kandakoglu ([email protected])
Section Q: Afshin Kamyabniya ([email protected])
Problem 1: Payoffs/Decision Table (13 points)
A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities
exceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year.
Estimated profits (in $ thousands) under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the
table below.
NEXT YEAR’S DEMAND
Alternative Low High
Do nothing
Expand
Subcontract
$50**
20
40
$60
80
70
** Profit in $ thousands.
Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is:
a. The optimistic approach? (3 points)
b. The conservative approach? (3 points)
c. Minimize the regret? (7 points)
Problem 2: Payoffs/Decision Table (15 points)
Dorothy Stanyard has three major routes to take to work. She can take Tennessee Street the entire way,
she can take several back streets to work, or she can use the expressway. The traffic patterns are,
however, very complex. Under good conditions, Tennessee Street is the fastest route. When Tennessee
is congested, one of the other routes is preferable. Over the past two months, Dorothy has tried each of
route several times under different traffic conditions. This information is summarized in minutes of
travel time to work in the following table:
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
ADM2302 M, N, P and Q Assignment # 4
Winter 2020 Page 2
No Traffic Congestion
(Minutes)
Mild Traffic
Congestion
(Minutes)
Severe Traffic
Congestion
(Minutes)
Tennessee Street
Back roads
Expressway
15
20
30
30
25
30
45
35
30
In the past 60 days, Dorothy encountered severe traffic congestion 10 days and mild traffic congestion
20 days. Assume that the past 60 days are typical of traffi ...
How to define a strategy in order to face change? Defining a system, identifying of the forces of change and plausible scenarios, as well as defining a strategy, are some of the essential steps to define a good foresight strategy. Please learn more by checking out this presentation.
Check out "Empowering local organisations through foresight" by Robin Bourgeois, Senior Foresight Advisor, GFAR Secretariat at: http://bit.ly/17GoTt4
Diplomado Ejecutivo en Gerencia Política y Gobernanza Estratégicasebastian kraljevich
Información sobre el nuevo programa de The Gradiate School of Political Management, GSPM, en The George Washington University:
Diplomado Ejecutivo en Gerencia Política y Gobernanza Estratégica, On Line y en español.
2. Agenda 09:00 Afghanistan Narrative 09:30 Introduction to reverse war gaming: Rev Ev 10:00 Florilandia War game: Scenario briefing 10:20 Break (move to breakout rooms) 10:40 War game part A: Mapping human confrontations break out rooms as assigned 11:40 Break – reconvene in plenary room 11:50 War game part B: Comparing groups’ perspectives 12:45 Key Insights 13:00 Close
3.
4.
5. Essence of Rev Ev War Gaming CHANGE RISK… AND OPPORTUNITY UNCERTAINTY WAR GAMING creates leads to need for strategy strategic action plan
6. War game structure 1-2 day meeting Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Team(s): interaction of people War game outputs Consequences of actions taken in round 1 carry through to rounds 2 & 3 input i nput External environment variables Time period 1 Time period 2 Time period 3 Objective: Create and explore hypothetical but credible scenarios Develop and test strategies, plans, and responses in a “safe” environment Internal environment variables
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13. Florilandia Simulation Trade Unions Opposition : Pro private sector Government (Legislature) Government (Executive) Private sector President Ramón Robles; President of Petroflor; Minister of Energy and Mines President of Congress; President of the Marxist Party Mayor of Puerto Salinas ; Mayor of Azucena; former Minister of Energy and Mines; former Presidents (Norberto and Garcia) Leader of the hydrocarbons industry Labor Union; Leader of the Federation of Unions (comprised of Transport Union, and the Union of Public Utility Workers) President of Petrolera Internacional USA President of Petróleos Europeos Media Editor of the Puerto (pro-opposition) ; VEA (pro governmen t) Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Map Confrontations and Build Coalitions Leverage Coalitions Implement compliance plan TEAMS TEAMS TEAMS
14.
15. Room allocations Room 302: BLUE / AZUL Government (Executive) - Al Elkins Room 305: YELLOW / AMARILLO Government (Legislature) – Mary Crannell – Room 307: ORANGE / NARANJA Opposition parties (pro private sector) – Gustavo Coronel Room 309: RED / ROJO Trade Unions – Ben Sheppard Room 310: GREEN / VERDE Private sector (international oil companies) – Ricardo Castillo
16.
17. Contact Details: Mary Crannell, Idea Sciences [email_address] 703 299 3480 Ben Sheppard Institute for Alternative Futures [email_address] 703-684-5880
Editor's Notes
Reverse Evolution ゥ wargames are constructed to reflect the world as a complex adaptive system, one that is sensitive to and that evolves from sets of initial conditions. In real life, we examine and correlate or find causality by retrospectively assigning a set of initial conditions. Reverse Evolution ゥ games mirror real life in this approach. The initial conditions are arrived at in reverse from a distant future condition, goal or requirement that is both feasible and eminently possible. This differs considerably from traditional games, which tend to be designed on a technology trajectory that, in fact, encumbers those games and their players: traditional games are designed on extrapolations from today ’ s capabilities and they attempt to use those extrapolations to answer a relatively bounded problem in advance of that problem or the interdependencies that might occur that would change the problem significantly. It would be akin to imagining what one ’ s life would be like in five or 10 or even 15 years, and asking friends and family to act as players in a game of how one should proceed from that extrapolation. Strategy is ends, ways and means, and tactics are the 塗 ow to � of getting things done. At the operational level, where wargames focus, the game ’ s orientation should be on moving people, information and material in time and space. Reverse Evolution ゥ war games use these operational constants at center-stage in the design of the game, agnostic to whatever is chosen as the game ’ s scenario or time frame. Thus, a Reverse Evolution ゥ war game begins with a time-distant, hypothetical-yet-credible scenario of only the operational-level constants. Next, moving in reverse from this timeless and enduring scenario scene setter, the Reverse Evolution ゥ war game uses experts to identify the seemingly unpredictable and non-linear changes that have to happen if that scenario is to occur, to a point five years from today. At the point five years from today we can identify the initial conditions that present opportunities for initiating long-term changes in complex systems, thus not subjecting game players to extrapolated technology game design. Players use these initial conditions to begin the war game – and results better are able to show how systemic changes will open opportunities for strategies that respond to system dynamics. The result of playing a Reverse Evolution ゥ game is that players and their organizations can learn how to better extract advantages from every operational move so that resources can be used to set conditions for an organization today to exploit the changes in and across systems far into the future. Operations can then be made more efficient for the short-term and more effective in the long-term.