8. The inputs for Senturion are judgments drawn from subject matter experts.
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10. The Senturion methodology is transparent and repeatable across industry domains Senturion addresses highly complex, politically-driven issues characterized by multiple stakeholders attempting to influence each other and outcomes. Alternative Futures Model Output Framing Input Forecasts Behavior and Outcomes Bounding the Study Stakeholders Defining Issues Position on Issues Applies Game Theory, Decision Theory, and Spatial Bargaining Models to Simulate Behavior Structuring Questions Influence and Importance Assesses Impact of Scenarios/Assumptions Senturion provides insights into complex decision making dynamics Subject Matter Experts consulted to frame and provide all inputs
26. Issue One: Hydrocarbon Summary Currently, a broad distribution of both domestic Bolivian and international groups support very different nationalization policies. Over time, Bolivian stakeholders are expected to consolidate their position around Evo Morales, who currently advocates nationalization of the hydrocarbon industry at a 65-35 public-private split of ownership (public ownership of virtually all resources “under the ground” and private investment in infrastructure). Thus, we expect Morales to nationalize the hydrocarbon industry after consolidating power in office, but this will not be a complete public ownership scenario. The Vice President, Alvarro Garcia Linera, and Juan Ramon Quintano are key drivers in obtaining the support for this position from more moderate elements in Bolivia. Morales will also be able to obtain Brazilian acquiescence for this public-private split. The Spanish and EU will be much less acquiescent. Chavez and PDVSA will be willing to make up any shortfall in investment not covered by private industry. Dissent will remain within Bolivian in El Alto, which may result in minor protests as a consequence of this policy.
27. Issue One: Current Hydrocarbon Political Landscape (February 2006) Maintain Foreign Private Ownership50-50 split with government 15%-85% Public-Foreign Private Split on ownership of hydrocarbon industry Nationalize Hydrocarbon Industry- Resources & Infrastructure Nationalize Hydrocarbon Industry – Public ownership of Resources Evo Morales’ Position Effective Influence of Stakeholders Venezuelan Stakeholders Bolivian Stakeholders Cuban Stakeholders Other Stakeholders US Stakeholders
28. Issue One: Forecasted Hydrocarbon Political Landscape (May 2006) Maintain Foreign Private Ownership50-50 split with government 15%-85% Public-Foreign Private Split on ownership of hydrocarbon industry Nationalize Hydrocarbon Industry- Resources & Infrastructure Nationalize Hydrocarbon Industry – Public ownership of Resources Evo Morales’ Position Effective Influence of Stakeholders Venezuelan Stakeholders Bolivian Stakeholders Cuban Stakeholders Other Stakeholders US Stakeholders
29. Issue Two: Coca Leaf Policy Increased transparency & shift to community enforcement Law 1008 Full eradication and alternative development Status Quo Cato policy No to Cocaine Yes to Coca 0 50 90 100
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32. Issue Two: Forecasted Coca Leaf Political Landscape (Sept 2006) Increased transparency & shift to community enforcement Law 1008 Full eradication and alternative development No to Cocaine Yes to Coca Status Quo Cato policy Evo Morales’ Position Effective Influence of Stakeholders Venezuelan Stakeholders Bolivian Stakeholders Cuban Stakeholders Other Stakeholders US Stakeholders
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