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Evaluating Financial PerformanceEvaluating Financial Performance
FinanceFinance
Jaime F. ZenderJaime F. Zender
Note: Because I have found no better presentation of this material, this closely
follows the discussion in the Higgins book.
Financial PerformanceFinancial Performance
• One of the most fundamental facts aboutOne of the most fundamental facts about
businesses is that the operating performance ofbusinesses is that the operating performance of
the firm shapes its financial structure.the firm shapes its financial structure.
• It is also true that the financial situation of theIt is also true that the financial situation of the
firm can also determine its operatingfirm can also determine its operating
performance.performance.
• The financial statements are therefore importantThe financial statements are therefore important
diagnostic tools for the informed manager.diagnostic tools for the informed manager.
– To keep the discussion grounded, we will use theTo keep the discussion grounded, we will use the
1997-98 financial statement for the Timberland1997-98 financial statement for the Timberland
Company as illustrations.Company as illustrations.
The Timberland Company, Balance Sheets ($ millions)
12/31/1997 12/31/1998 Change
Assets
Cash and marketable securities 98.8 151.9 53.1
Accounts receivable 75.8 79.0 3.2
Inventories 142.6 131.2 (11.4)
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 24.9 25.4 0.5
Total current assets 342.1 387.5
Property, plant, and equipment 116.5 131.2 14.7
Less accumulated depreciation and amortization (63.6) (74.3) (10.7)
Net property, plant, and equipment 52.9 56.9 4.0
Intangible assets 20.9 19.2 (1.7)
Other assets 4.2 5.8 1.6
Total assets $420.1 $469.4
Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Accounts Payable 20.4 25.9 5.5
Wages payable 28.2 22.1 (6.1)
Income taxes payable 17.7 18.2 0.5
Other accrued expenses 32.8 29.5 (3.3)
Total current liabilities 99.1 95.7
Long-term debt 100.0 100.0 --
Deferred income taxes 6.0 7.5 1.5
Total liabilities 205.1 203.2
Common stock 0.1 0.1
Additional paid-in capital 68.6 74.7
Retained earnings 146.3 207.7
Less treasury stock (0.1) (16.3)
Total shareholders' equity 214.9 266.2 51.3
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $420.1 469.4
The Timberland Company, Income Statements ($ millions)
12/31/1997 12/31/1998
Net sales 796.5 862.2
Cost of sales 464.2 501.1
Gross profit 332.3 361.1
Selling expenses 174.7 195.7
General and administrative expenses 51.7 50.9
Depreciation and amortization 20.3 18.2
Amortization of goodwill 1.7 1.7
Total operating expenses 248.4 266.5
Operating income 83.9 94.6
Interest expense 14.8 9.5
Other expense (income) 1.4 (1.9)
Total nonoperating expenses 16.2 7.6
Income before income taxes 67.7 87.0
Provision for income taxes 20.3 27.8
Net income $47.4 $59.2
The Timberland Company, Statement of Cash Flow, 1998 ($ millions)
Cash Flows from Operating Activities
Net income 59.2
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by
operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization 18.2
Loss on disposal of property, plant, and equipment 1.3
Changes in current assets and liabilities
Increase in accounts receivable -2.8
Decrease in inventories 11.6
Decrease in prepaid expenses 1.1
Increase in accounts payable 5.1
Increase in accrued expenses -10
Increase in accrued income taxes 0.5
Net cash provided by operating activities 84.2
Cash Flows from Investing Activities
Proceeds from sale of property, plant, and equipment 0.1
Additions to property, plant, and equipment -20.7
Other -1.2
Net cash provided by investing activities -21.8
Cash Flows from Financing Activities
Common stock repurchases -16.2
Issuance of common stock, including tax benefit 6.1
Net cash provided by financing activities -10.1
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash 0.9
Net increase in cash 53.2
Cash at beginning of year 98.8
Cash at end of year $152.0
Return On EquityReturn On Equity
• The most popular measure of financialThe most popular measure of financial
performance (for many audiences) is ROE.performance (for many audiences) is ROE.
• ROE measures accounting earnings for a periodROE measures accounting earnings for a period
per dollar of shareholders’ equity invested.per dollar of shareholders’ equity invested.
• For Timberland 1998 ROE was:For Timberland 1998 ROE was:
EquityrsShareholde
IncomeNet
ROE
'
=
%2.22
2.266$
2.59$
==ROE
Dissecting ROEDissecting ROE
• ROE is so popular because it is, in a sense, aROE is so popular because it is, in a sense, a
summary of the information on the incomesummary of the information on the income
statement and both sides of the balance sheet.statement and both sides of the balance sheet.
It provides an “accounting” measure of theIt provides an “accounting” measure of the
“returns” to shareholders’ investment.“returns” to shareholders’ investment.
• The three determinants of ROE:The three determinants of ROE:
– Profit Margin = Net Income/SalesProfit Margin = Net Income/Sales
– Asset Turnover = Sales/AssetsAsset Turnover = Sales/Assets
– Financial Leverage = Assets/Shareholders’ equityFinancial Leverage = Assets/Shareholders’ equity
• ROE comes from the joint inputs of these threeROE comes from the joint inputs of these three
pieces. 22.2% = 6.9% × 1.8 × 1.8pieces. 22.2% = 6.9% × 1.8 × 1.8
Return on Assets (ROA)Return on Assets (ROA)
• When we multiply the profit margin times theWhen we multiply the profit margin times the
asset turnover we arrive at return on assets.asset turnover we arrive at return on assets.
• ROA doesn’t distinguish between capital raisedROA doesn’t distinguish between capital raised
from shareholders and that raised from creditors.from shareholders and that raised from creditors.
(ROE considers only equity capital.)(ROE considers only equity capital.)
• As such ROA measures the “return” on eachAs such ROA measures the “return” on each
dollar invested in assets.dollar invested in assets.
%6.12
4.469$
2.59$
Assets
incomeNet
AssetsonReturn ===
ROEs and "Levers" of Performance for 10 Diverse Companies, 1998
Return on
Equity
(%) =
Profit
Margin
(%) ×
Asset
Turnover
(times) ×
Financial
Leverage
(times)
BankAmerica Corp 14.6 10.8 0.1 13.5
Carolina Power and Light 14.3 12.8 0.4 2.8
Exxon Corporation 14.6 6.3 1.1 2.1
Food Lion, Inc. 17 2.7 2.8 2.3
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 20.7 9.9 1.1 1.9
Intel Corporation 24 23.1 0.8 1.3
Nike, Inc. 12.9 4.2 1.8 1.7
Southwest Airlines Co. 18.1 10.4 0.9 2
Tiffany & Company 16.9 7.7 1.1 2
The Timberland Company 22.2 6.9 1.8 1.8
ROE Across CompaniesROE Across Companies
• Generally speaking ROE is reasonably similarGenerally speaking ROE is reasonably similar
across companies. Why?across companies. Why?
• One would like to have a company with a highOne would like to have a company with a high
profit margin and a high asset turnover.profit margin and a high asset turnover.
Typically one of these will be relatively high andTypically one of these will be relatively high and
one relatively low. Why?one relatively low. Why?
• What determines the firm’s choice of financialWhat determines the firm’s choice of financial
leverage?leverage?
• Now let’s look at each component in isolation.Now let’s look at each component in isolation.
Profit MarginProfit Margin
• This ratio measures the fraction of each dollar ofThis ratio measures the fraction of each dollar of
sales that makes it through to net income.sales that makes it through to net income.
– It is of primary importance to an operating officer as itIt is of primary importance to an operating officer as it
reflects the company’s pricing strategy and its abilityreflects the company’s pricing strategy and its ability
to control costs.to control costs.
– Timberland’s profit margin = Net Income/Sales =Timberland’s profit margin = Net Income/Sales =
$59.2/862.2 = 6.9%$59.2/862.2 = 6.9%
• The “gross margin” measures profitabilityThe “gross margin” measures profitability
relative to variable costs = Gross Profits/Salesrelative to variable costs = Gross Profits/Sales
– Gross profit is sales less cost of goods sold.Gross profit is sales less cost of goods sold.
Timberland’s gross margin is = $361.1/$862.2 =Timberland’s gross margin is = $361.1/$862.2 =
41.9% indicating that about 42% of each dollar in41.9% indicating that about 42% of each dollar in
sales is available to cover fixed costs and profits.sales is available to cover fixed costs and profits.
Asset TurnoverAsset Turnover
• This ratio measures the sales generated per dollar ofThis ratio measures the sales generated per dollar of
assets employed.assets employed.
– Measures capital intensity with a low asset turnover indicating aMeasures capital intensity with a low asset turnover indicating a
capital intensive business.capital intensive business.
– Nice illustration that more assets is not always better.Nice illustration that more assets is not always better.
– Control of a company’s assets is critical and control of currentControl of a company’s assets is critical and control of current
assets is especially critical to success.assets is especially critical to success.
– Asset turnover = sales/assets = $862.2/$469.4 = 1.8 timesAsset turnover = sales/assets = $862.2/$469.4 = 1.8 times
• Analyzing the turnover of each type of asset on aAnalyzing the turnover of each type of asset on a
company’s balance sheet gives rise to what are knowncompany’s balance sheet gives rise to what are known
as control ratios.as control ratios.
Control Ratios – Fixed-Asset TurnoverControl Ratios – Fixed-Asset Turnover
• Fixed-Asset Turnover is perhaps a “purer”Fixed-Asset Turnover is perhaps a “purer”
reflection of the capital intensity of a firm.reflection of the capital intensity of a firm.
• Fixed-Asset Turnover = Sales/Net PP&EFixed-Asset Turnover = Sales/Net PP&E
= $862.2/$56.9 = 15.2 times= $862.2/$56.9 = 15.2 times
• Timberland generates $15.20 in sales for eachTimberland generates $15.20 in sales for each
dollar of plant, property, and equipment theydollar of plant, property, and equipment they
invest in.invest in.
Control Ratios – Inventory TurnoverControl Ratios – Inventory Turnover
• Inventory turnover = COGS/Ending Inventory =Inventory turnover = COGS/Ending Inventory =
$501.1/$131.2 = 3.8 times$501.1/$131.2 = 3.8 times
– One might also use average inventory rather thanOne might also use average inventory rather than
ending inventory.ending inventory.
• This indicates that items in Timberland’sThis indicates that items in Timberland’s
inventory turn over 3.8 times per year oninventory turn over 3.8 times per year on
average.average.
• Alternatively, 12 months/3.8 times=3.15 monthsAlternatively, 12 months/3.8 times=3.15 months
indicating that the typical item sits in inventoryindicating that the typical item sits in inventory
for just over 3 months.for just over 3 months.
Control Ratios – Collection PeriodControl Ratios – Collection Period
• Collection period highlights a company’sCollection period highlights a company’s
management of its accounts receivable.management of its accounts receivable.
• Note that what is desired here is credit sales.Note that what is desired here is credit sales.
Outsiders rarely know this so commonly all salesOutsiders rarely know this so commonly all sales
are assumed to be for credit.are assumed to be for credit.
• Timberland’s customers are taking just over aTimberland’s customers are taking just over a
month to pay their bills. Good or bad?month to pay their bills. Good or bad?
days4.33
days365/2.862$
0.79$
daypersalesCredit
ReceivableAccounts
===PeriodCollection
Control Ratios – Days’ Sales in CashControl Ratios – Days’ Sales in Cash
• Timberland currently has 64.3 days’ worth ofTimberland currently has 64.3 days’ worth of
sales in cash and securities.sales in cash and securities.
• Too much or too little?Too much or too little?
• Question really is how much liquidity does theQuestion really is how much liquidity does the
firm require for efficient operations. While morefirm require for efficient operations. While more
might always seem better, think about the returnmight always seem better, think about the return
the asset “cash” generates for you.the asset “cash” generates for you.
days3.64
days365/2.862$
9.151$
dayperSales
securitiesandCash
' ===CashinSalesDays
Control Ratios – PayablesControl Ratios – Payables
PeriodPeriod
• This is a control ratio for a liability.This is a control ratio for a liability.
• The proper calculation uses credit purchases which,The proper calculation uses credit purchases which,
again, an outsider rarely knows. Usually COGS is usedagain, an outsider rarely knows. Usually COGS is used
as a substitute. COGS differs from credit sales because:as a substitute. COGS differs from credit sales because:
– Firm may be adding or depleting inventory; purchasing at aFirm may be adding or depleting inventory; purchasing at a
different rate than it is selling.different rate than it is selling.
– COGS includes a mark-up for depreciation and labor makingCOGS includes a mark-up for depreciation and labor making
COGS larger than credit purchases so this ratio is, on average,COGS larger than credit purchases so this ratio is, on average,
artificially small.artificially small.
– Thus it is difficult to compare the 18.9 days to its credit terms. ItThus it is difficult to compare the 18.9 days to its credit terms. It
is, however, reasonable to compare this to last year’s ratio.is, however, reasonable to compare this to last year’s ratio.
days9.18
days365/1.501$
9.25$
dayperpurchasesCredit
payableAccounts
===PeriodPayables
Financial LeverageFinancial Leverage
• Timberland has $1.80 in assets for every dollarTimberland has $1.80 in assets for every dollar
that shareholders have invested.that shareholders have invested.
• This is a relatively modest amount of leverageThis is a relatively modest amount of leverage
for a manufacturing company.for a manufacturing company.
• Other leverage ratios tell us the same thing:Other leverage ratios tell us the same thing:
– Debt to assets – 43.3%Debt to assets – 43.3%
– Debt to equity – 76.3%Debt to equity – 76.3%
8.1
2.266$
4.469$
equityrs'Shareholde
Assets
===LeverageFinancial
Coverage RatiosCoverage Ratios
• Often more informative than the leverage ratiosOften more informative than the leverage ratios
are “coverage ratios.”are “coverage ratios.”
• These ratios tell us what the firm is earning eachThese ratios tell us what the firm is earning each
year relative to the burden the debt imposes.year relative to the burden the debt imposes.
times2.10
5.9$
5.96$
ExpenseInterest
EBIT
earnedinterestTimes ===
times2.10
)0.87/8.271/(0.0$5.9$
5.96$
rateTax1
repaymentPrincial
Interest
EBIT
coveredburdenTimes =
−+
=






−
+
=
Liquidity RatiosLiquidity Ratios
• A further determinant of a firm’s debt capacity isA further determinant of a firm’s debt capacity is
the liquidity of its assets relative to its liabilities.the liquidity of its assets relative to its liabilities.
• The two common ratios used to measureThe two common ratios used to measure
liquidity are the current ratio and the quick ratioliquidity are the current ratio and the quick ratio
(also called the “acid test”).(also called the “acid test”).
times0.4
7.95$
5.387$
sliabilitieCurrent
assetsCurrent
ratioCurrent ===
times7.2
7.95$
2.131$5.387$
sliabilitieCurrent
Inventory-assetsCurrent
ratioQuick =
−
==
Limitations of Ratio AnalysisLimitations of Ratio Analysis
• We have been talking as if management alwaysWe have been talking as if management always
wants to increase ROE or as if a high ROE iswants to increase ROE or as if a high ROE is
always better.always better.
– If company A has a higher ROE than company B isIf company A has a higher ROE than company B is
company A necessarily better?company A necessarily better?
– If a company increases its ROE is it necessarilyIf a company increases its ROE is it necessarily
evidence of improved performance?evidence of improved performance?
• There are three critical problems with ROE.There are three critical problems with ROE.
– Often called the timing problem, the value problem,Often called the timing problem, the value problem,
and the risk problem.and the risk problem.
The Timing ProblemThe Timing Problem
• As a decision-maker in a business environmentAs a decision-maker in a business environment
you are often encouraged to focus your attentionyou are often encouraged to focus your attention
on the past and particularly on one period in theon the past and particularly on one period in the
past – correct?past – correct?
• Sounds silly, but this is exactly what ROE does.Sounds silly, but this is exactly what ROE does.
• Clearly last year’s ROE must be taken inClearly last year’s ROE must be taken in
context.context.
– If not it is virtually meaningless.If not it is virtually meaningless.
– If company ROE was lower last year than it was twoIf company ROE was lower last year than it was two
years ago the companyyears ago the company mustmust be doing worse –be doing worse –
correct?correct?
The Risk ProblemThe Risk Problem
• We talked a lot about how risk and return goWe talked a lot about how risk and return go
together. ROE is a “return” like measure sotogether. ROE is a “return” like measure so
where is the risk dimension?where is the risk dimension?
• This problem alone makes ROE an inaccurateThis problem alone makes ROE an inaccurate
and possibly misleading indicator of financialand possibly misleading indicator of financial
performance.performance.
• One has to realize that the risk dimension isOne has to realize that the risk dimension is
missing and so be particularly wary of makingmissing and so be particularly wary of making
comparisons across companies using ROEcomparisons across companies using ROE
alone.alone.
The Value ProblemThe Value Problem
• ROE measures a “return” figure but it is basedROE measures a “return” figure but it is based
on two accounting figures.on two accounting figures.
• The numerator is net income and this is not freeThe numerator is net income and this is not free
cash flow (the cash flow that the company couldcash flow (the cash flow that the company could
payout to its investors).payout to its investors).
• Secondly, even if net income is close to freeSecondly, even if net income is close to free
cash flow, ROE is measured relative to bookcash flow, ROE is measured relative to book
value of equity not the market value of equity.value of equity not the market value of equity.
• It is the market value investors must pay toIt is the market value investors must pay to
purchase a share of the firm’s equity and this ispurchase a share of the firm’s equity and this is
generally higher than the book value.generally higher than the book value.
Ratio Analysis For TimberlandRatio Analysis For Timberland
• Given the limitations of ratio analysis the mostGiven the limitations of ratio analysis the most
useful way to evaluate financial ratios is byuseful way to evaluate financial ratios is by
examining their changes over time.examining their changes over time.
• Comparing the ratios to industry averagesComparing the ratios to industry averages
provides an interesting benchmark butprovides an interesting benchmark but
differences between companies in a givendifferences between companies in a given
industry can make the exercise misleading.industry can make the exercise misleading.
• A systematic approach will also help alleviateA systematic approach will also help alleviate
the information overload that results from thethe information overload that results from the
random calculation of countless ratios.random calculation of countless ratios.
A Systematic ApproachA Systematic Approach
• At the top tier of ratios lie ROE and ROA.At the top tier of ratios lie ROE and ROA.
• The major levers of performance are in the nextThe major levers of performance are in the next
tier, followed by more narrowly focused ratios:tier, followed by more narrowly focused ratios:
– Profit margin:Profit margin:
• Gross margin, tax rate, normalized income statementGross margin, tax rate, normalized income statement
– Asset turnover:Asset turnover:
• Control ratios (inventory turnover, fixed asset turnover,Control ratios (inventory turnover, fixed asset turnover,
collection period, days sales in cash, payables period),collection period, days sales in cash, payables period),
normalized balance sheetnormalized balance sheet
– Financial leverage:Financial leverage:
• Leverage ratios, coverage ratios, liquidity ratiosLeverage ratios, coverage ratios, liquidity ratios
Ratio Analysis of Timberland Company 1994 - 1998
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Industry
Median
Major Ratios
ROE 11.9 (8.2) 12.3 22.1 22.2 12.3
ROA 3.8 (2.8) 4.5 11.3 12.6 7.4
ROIC 7.1 0.7 9.6 18.3 17.9 9.7
Profitability Ratios
Profit Margin 2.8 (1.8) 3.0 5.9 6.9 4.2
Gross Margin 35.0 33.7 39.4 41.7 41.9 38.4
Price to earnings ratio 13.5 NA 20.7 13.9 8.5 15.0
Turnover and Control Ratios
Asset Turnover 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.8
Fixed-asset Turnover 9.3 12.5 14.1 15.1 15.2 9.2
Inventory Turnover 1.9 2.4 2.6 3.3 3.8 2.7
Collection Period 73.5 53.4 53.2 34.7 33.4 39.1
Days' Sales in Cash 3.7 21.4 49.4 45.3 64.3 10.8
Payables Period 32.6 21.2 18.6 16.0 18.9 36.3
Leverage and Liquidity Ratios
Assets to Equity 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.7
Debt to Assets 68.5 66.2 63.2 48.8 43.3 39.6
Debt to Equity 217.4 196.3 171.9 95.4 76.3 65.5
Times Interest Earned 2.9 0.2 2.5 5.6 10.2 9.1
Times Burden Covered 1.6 0.1 1.1 5.6 10.2 7.4
Current Ratio 3.5 4.8 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.0
Acid Test 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.7 1.5
Ratio Analysis of TimberlandRatio Analysis of Timberland
• ROE:ROE:
– After a loss in ’95 the ROE is up to a strong 22.2% inAfter a loss in ’95 the ROE is up to a strong 22.2% in
’98. This is strong relative to its industry and to the’98. This is strong relative to its industry and to the
median firm in the S&P500 that year which had anmedian firm in the S&P500 that year which had an
ROE of 14.8%.ROE of 14.8%.
– The other major ratios show similar patterns.The other major ratios show similar patterns.
• The rise in ROE is coming from the increase inThe rise in ROE is coming from the increase in
its profit margin and asset turnover and isits profit margin and asset turnover and is
somewhat offset by the reduction in its financialsomewhat offset by the reduction in its financial
leverage.leverage.
Ratio Analysis of TimberlandRatio Analysis of Timberland
• The increased profit margin is coming primarilyThe increased profit margin is coming primarily
from a rising gross margin indicating that it isfrom a rising gross margin indicating that it is
some combination of more aggressive pricingsome combination of more aggressive pricing
and cost control that has driven the increase.and cost control that has driven the increase.
• Improved asset turnover reflects overallImproved asset turnover reflects overall
improved asset management.improved asset management.
– Inventory turnover and fixed asset turnover areInventory turnover and fixed asset turnover are
strongly higher.strongly higher.
– The only asset rising relative to sales is cash. Is thisThe only asset rising relative to sales is cash. Is this
good or bad?good or bad?
• Leverage and liquidity ratios all show increasingLeverage and liquidity ratios all show increasing
financial conservatism.financial conservatism.
Normalized FinancialNormalized Financial
StatementsStatements
• Note on the normalized balance sheet that 80%Note on the normalized balance sheet that 80%
of the firm’s assets are current assets.of the firm’s assets are current assets.
– This highlights the importance of working capitalThis highlights the importance of working capital
management.management.
– Note the reduction in inventories and accountsNote the reduction in inventories and accounts
receivable noted above.receivable noted above.
• The normalized income statement is pleasantThe normalized income statement is pleasant
reading.reading.
– Profit margin and gross margin are up since ’95.Profit margin and gross margin are up since ’95.
– Results would have been better except for the rise inResults would have been better except for the rise in
SG&A expenses.SG&A expenses.
Common-Sized Balance Sheet for Timberland and Industry
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Industry
Average
Assets
Cash and marketable securities 1.3% 9.1% 20.8% 23.5% 32.4% 7.4%
Accounts receivable 27.1 22.7 22.4 18.0 16.8 22.7
Inventories 46.1 42.9 35.4 34.0 28.0 37.1
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 4.4 5.5 4.1 5.9 5.4 5.5
Total current assets 79.0 80.2 82.6 81.4 82.6 72.0
Property, plant, and equipment 23.4 22.8 23.1 27.7 28.0 31.5
Less accumulated depreciation and amortization 9.0 10.3 12.2 15.1 15.8 13.6
Net property, plant, and equipment 14.4 12.4 10.9 12.6 12.1 17.9
Intangible assets 5.5 5.8 5.0 5.0 4.1 3.2
Other assets 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.2 6.9
Total assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Accounts payable 7.8% 6.0% 4.7% 4.9% 5.5% 11.2%
Notes payable 4.8 -- -- -- -- 2.0
Current portion of long-term debt 1.7 1.8 4.0 -- -- 1.0
Wages payable 1.9 0.2 2.6 4.2 3.9 --
Accrued expenses 6.4 8.5 11.3 14.5 11.0 10.0
Total current liabilities 22.6 16.5 22.7 23.6 20.4 24.2
Long-term debt 43.7 47.3 38.2 23.8 21.3 14.8
Deferred income taxes 2.2 2.4 2.4 1.4 1.6 1.0
Total liabilities 68.5 66.3 63.2 48.8 43.3 39.9
Common stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
Additional paid-in capital 12.2 14.2 13.7 16.3 15.9 10.8
Retained earnings 19.3 19.6 23.0 34.8 44.2 54.8
Less treasury stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 10.2
Total shareholders' equity 31.5 33.7 36.8 51.2 56.7 60.1
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Normalized Income Statement for Timberland and Industry
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Industry
Average
Net sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Cost of sales 65.0 66.3 60.6 58.5 58.3 60.8
Gross profit 35.0 33.7 39.4 41.5 41.7 39.2
S,G,& A expenses 25.8 29.4 28.9 28.4 28.6 29.3
Depreciation and amortization 2.4 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.8
Total operating expenses 28.2 32.3 32.0 31.0 30.7 31.0
Operating income 6.8 1.4 7.4 10.5 11.0 8.2
Interest expense 2.4 3.5 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.7
Other expense (income) -- 0.2 (0.1) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2)
Extraordinary expense (income) -- 0.6 -- -- -- 0.4
Total nonoperating expenses 2.3 4.2 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.9
Income before income taxes 4.4 (2.9) 4.5 8.5 10.1 7.3
Provision for income taxes 1.6 (1.1) 1.5 2.5 3.2 2.7
Net income 2.8 (1.8) 3.0 5.9 6.9 4.6
SummarySummary
• What is being reflected here is a robust recoveryWhat is being reflected here is a robust recovery
from a difficult period in the firm’s history.from a difficult period in the firm’s history.
– In ’94 the firm experienced a 50% increase in salesIn ’94 the firm experienced a 50% increase in sales
driven by “fad” demand for its product.driven by “fad” demand for its product.
– In response Timberland over-expanded and lostIn response Timberland over-expanded and lost
control of assets, particularly inventory and accountscontrol of assets, particularly inventory and accounts
receivable.receivable.
– The bubble burst in ’95.The bubble burst in ’95.
– Since then they have aggressively managed assetsSince then they have aggressively managed assets
and reduced debt.and reduced debt.
– Challenge ahead is what to do with all the excessChallenge ahead is what to do with all the excess
cash being generated and a question of whether theycash being generated and a question of whether they
can rekindle growth.can rekindle growth.

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Session3 notes

  • 1. Evaluating Financial PerformanceEvaluating Financial Performance FinanceFinance Jaime F. ZenderJaime F. Zender Note: Because I have found no better presentation of this material, this closely follows the discussion in the Higgins book.
  • 2. Financial PerformanceFinancial Performance • One of the most fundamental facts aboutOne of the most fundamental facts about businesses is that the operating performance ofbusinesses is that the operating performance of the firm shapes its financial structure.the firm shapes its financial structure. • It is also true that the financial situation of theIt is also true that the financial situation of the firm can also determine its operatingfirm can also determine its operating performance.performance. • The financial statements are therefore importantThe financial statements are therefore important diagnostic tools for the informed manager.diagnostic tools for the informed manager. – To keep the discussion grounded, we will use theTo keep the discussion grounded, we will use the 1997-98 financial statement for the Timberland1997-98 financial statement for the Timberland Company as illustrations.Company as illustrations.
  • 3. The Timberland Company, Balance Sheets ($ millions) 12/31/1997 12/31/1998 Change Assets Cash and marketable securities 98.8 151.9 53.1 Accounts receivable 75.8 79.0 3.2 Inventories 142.6 131.2 (11.4) Prepaid expenses and other current assets 24.9 25.4 0.5 Total current assets 342.1 387.5 Property, plant, and equipment 116.5 131.2 14.7 Less accumulated depreciation and amortization (63.6) (74.3) (10.7) Net property, plant, and equipment 52.9 56.9 4.0 Intangible assets 20.9 19.2 (1.7) Other assets 4.2 5.8 1.6 Total assets $420.1 $469.4 Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable 20.4 25.9 5.5 Wages payable 28.2 22.1 (6.1) Income taxes payable 17.7 18.2 0.5 Other accrued expenses 32.8 29.5 (3.3) Total current liabilities 99.1 95.7 Long-term debt 100.0 100.0 -- Deferred income taxes 6.0 7.5 1.5 Total liabilities 205.1 203.2 Common stock 0.1 0.1 Additional paid-in capital 68.6 74.7 Retained earnings 146.3 207.7 Less treasury stock (0.1) (16.3) Total shareholders' equity 214.9 266.2 51.3 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $420.1 469.4
  • 4. The Timberland Company, Income Statements ($ millions) 12/31/1997 12/31/1998 Net sales 796.5 862.2 Cost of sales 464.2 501.1 Gross profit 332.3 361.1 Selling expenses 174.7 195.7 General and administrative expenses 51.7 50.9 Depreciation and amortization 20.3 18.2 Amortization of goodwill 1.7 1.7 Total operating expenses 248.4 266.5 Operating income 83.9 94.6 Interest expense 14.8 9.5 Other expense (income) 1.4 (1.9) Total nonoperating expenses 16.2 7.6 Income before income taxes 67.7 87.0 Provision for income taxes 20.3 27.8 Net income $47.4 $59.2
  • 5. The Timberland Company, Statement of Cash Flow, 1998 ($ millions) Cash Flows from Operating Activities Net income 59.2 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities: Depreciation and amortization 18.2 Loss on disposal of property, plant, and equipment 1.3 Changes in current assets and liabilities Increase in accounts receivable -2.8 Decrease in inventories 11.6 Decrease in prepaid expenses 1.1 Increase in accounts payable 5.1 Increase in accrued expenses -10 Increase in accrued income taxes 0.5 Net cash provided by operating activities 84.2 Cash Flows from Investing Activities Proceeds from sale of property, plant, and equipment 0.1 Additions to property, plant, and equipment -20.7 Other -1.2 Net cash provided by investing activities -21.8 Cash Flows from Financing Activities Common stock repurchases -16.2 Issuance of common stock, including tax benefit 6.1 Net cash provided by financing activities -10.1 Effect of exchange rate changes on cash 0.9 Net increase in cash 53.2 Cash at beginning of year 98.8 Cash at end of year $152.0
  • 6. Return On EquityReturn On Equity • The most popular measure of financialThe most popular measure of financial performance (for many audiences) is ROE.performance (for many audiences) is ROE. • ROE measures accounting earnings for a periodROE measures accounting earnings for a period per dollar of shareholders’ equity invested.per dollar of shareholders’ equity invested. • For Timberland 1998 ROE was:For Timberland 1998 ROE was: EquityrsShareholde IncomeNet ROE ' = %2.22 2.266$ 2.59$ ==ROE
  • 7. Dissecting ROEDissecting ROE • ROE is so popular because it is, in a sense, aROE is so popular because it is, in a sense, a summary of the information on the incomesummary of the information on the income statement and both sides of the balance sheet.statement and both sides of the balance sheet. It provides an “accounting” measure of theIt provides an “accounting” measure of the “returns” to shareholders’ investment.“returns” to shareholders’ investment. • The three determinants of ROE:The three determinants of ROE: – Profit Margin = Net Income/SalesProfit Margin = Net Income/Sales – Asset Turnover = Sales/AssetsAsset Turnover = Sales/Assets – Financial Leverage = Assets/Shareholders’ equityFinancial Leverage = Assets/Shareholders’ equity • ROE comes from the joint inputs of these threeROE comes from the joint inputs of these three pieces. 22.2% = 6.9% × 1.8 × 1.8pieces. 22.2% = 6.9% × 1.8 × 1.8
  • 8. Return on Assets (ROA)Return on Assets (ROA) • When we multiply the profit margin times theWhen we multiply the profit margin times the asset turnover we arrive at return on assets.asset turnover we arrive at return on assets. • ROA doesn’t distinguish between capital raisedROA doesn’t distinguish between capital raised from shareholders and that raised from creditors.from shareholders and that raised from creditors. (ROE considers only equity capital.)(ROE considers only equity capital.) • As such ROA measures the “return” on eachAs such ROA measures the “return” on each dollar invested in assets.dollar invested in assets. %6.12 4.469$ 2.59$ Assets incomeNet AssetsonReturn ===
  • 9. ROEs and "Levers" of Performance for 10 Diverse Companies, 1998 Return on Equity (%) = Profit Margin (%) × Asset Turnover (times) × Financial Leverage (times) BankAmerica Corp 14.6 10.8 0.1 13.5 Carolina Power and Light 14.3 12.8 0.4 2.8 Exxon Corporation 14.6 6.3 1.1 2.1 Food Lion, Inc. 17 2.7 2.8 2.3 Harley-Davidson, Inc. 20.7 9.9 1.1 1.9 Intel Corporation 24 23.1 0.8 1.3 Nike, Inc. 12.9 4.2 1.8 1.7 Southwest Airlines Co. 18.1 10.4 0.9 2 Tiffany & Company 16.9 7.7 1.1 2 The Timberland Company 22.2 6.9 1.8 1.8
  • 10. ROE Across CompaniesROE Across Companies • Generally speaking ROE is reasonably similarGenerally speaking ROE is reasonably similar across companies. Why?across companies. Why? • One would like to have a company with a highOne would like to have a company with a high profit margin and a high asset turnover.profit margin and a high asset turnover. Typically one of these will be relatively high andTypically one of these will be relatively high and one relatively low. Why?one relatively low. Why? • What determines the firm’s choice of financialWhat determines the firm’s choice of financial leverage?leverage? • Now let’s look at each component in isolation.Now let’s look at each component in isolation.
  • 11. Profit MarginProfit Margin • This ratio measures the fraction of each dollar ofThis ratio measures the fraction of each dollar of sales that makes it through to net income.sales that makes it through to net income. – It is of primary importance to an operating officer as itIt is of primary importance to an operating officer as it reflects the company’s pricing strategy and its abilityreflects the company’s pricing strategy and its ability to control costs.to control costs. – Timberland’s profit margin = Net Income/Sales =Timberland’s profit margin = Net Income/Sales = $59.2/862.2 = 6.9%$59.2/862.2 = 6.9% • The “gross margin” measures profitabilityThe “gross margin” measures profitability relative to variable costs = Gross Profits/Salesrelative to variable costs = Gross Profits/Sales – Gross profit is sales less cost of goods sold.Gross profit is sales less cost of goods sold. Timberland’s gross margin is = $361.1/$862.2 =Timberland’s gross margin is = $361.1/$862.2 = 41.9% indicating that about 42% of each dollar in41.9% indicating that about 42% of each dollar in sales is available to cover fixed costs and profits.sales is available to cover fixed costs and profits.
  • 12. Asset TurnoverAsset Turnover • This ratio measures the sales generated per dollar ofThis ratio measures the sales generated per dollar of assets employed.assets employed. – Measures capital intensity with a low asset turnover indicating aMeasures capital intensity with a low asset turnover indicating a capital intensive business.capital intensive business. – Nice illustration that more assets is not always better.Nice illustration that more assets is not always better. – Control of a company’s assets is critical and control of currentControl of a company’s assets is critical and control of current assets is especially critical to success.assets is especially critical to success. – Asset turnover = sales/assets = $862.2/$469.4 = 1.8 timesAsset turnover = sales/assets = $862.2/$469.4 = 1.8 times • Analyzing the turnover of each type of asset on aAnalyzing the turnover of each type of asset on a company’s balance sheet gives rise to what are knowncompany’s balance sheet gives rise to what are known as control ratios.as control ratios.
  • 13. Control Ratios – Fixed-Asset TurnoverControl Ratios – Fixed-Asset Turnover • Fixed-Asset Turnover is perhaps a “purer”Fixed-Asset Turnover is perhaps a “purer” reflection of the capital intensity of a firm.reflection of the capital intensity of a firm. • Fixed-Asset Turnover = Sales/Net PP&EFixed-Asset Turnover = Sales/Net PP&E = $862.2/$56.9 = 15.2 times= $862.2/$56.9 = 15.2 times • Timberland generates $15.20 in sales for eachTimberland generates $15.20 in sales for each dollar of plant, property, and equipment theydollar of plant, property, and equipment they invest in.invest in.
  • 14. Control Ratios – Inventory TurnoverControl Ratios – Inventory Turnover • Inventory turnover = COGS/Ending Inventory =Inventory turnover = COGS/Ending Inventory = $501.1/$131.2 = 3.8 times$501.1/$131.2 = 3.8 times – One might also use average inventory rather thanOne might also use average inventory rather than ending inventory.ending inventory. • This indicates that items in Timberland’sThis indicates that items in Timberland’s inventory turn over 3.8 times per year oninventory turn over 3.8 times per year on average.average. • Alternatively, 12 months/3.8 times=3.15 monthsAlternatively, 12 months/3.8 times=3.15 months indicating that the typical item sits in inventoryindicating that the typical item sits in inventory for just over 3 months.for just over 3 months.
  • 15. Control Ratios – Collection PeriodControl Ratios – Collection Period • Collection period highlights a company’sCollection period highlights a company’s management of its accounts receivable.management of its accounts receivable. • Note that what is desired here is credit sales.Note that what is desired here is credit sales. Outsiders rarely know this so commonly all salesOutsiders rarely know this so commonly all sales are assumed to be for credit.are assumed to be for credit. • Timberland’s customers are taking just over aTimberland’s customers are taking just over a month to pay their bills. Good or bad?month to pay their bills. Good or bad? days4.33 days365/2.862$ 0.79$ daypersalesCredit ReceivableAccounts ===PeriodCollection
  • 16. Control Ratios – Days’ Sales in CashControl Ratios – Days’ Sales in Cash • Timberland currently has 64.3 days’ worth ofTimberland currently has 64.3 days’ worth of sales in cash and securities.sales in cash and securities. • Too much or too little?Too much or too little? • Question really is how much liquidity does theQuestion really is how much liquidity does the firm require for efficient operations. While morefirm require for efficient operations. While more might always seem better, think about the returnmight always seem better, think about the return the asset “cash” generates for you.the asset “cash” generates for you. days3.64 days365/2.862$ 9.151$ dayperSales securitiesandCash ' ===CashinSalesDays
  • 17. Control Ratios – PayablesControl Ratios – Payables PeriodPeriod • This is a control ratio for a liability.This is a control ratio for a liability. • The proper calculation uses credit purchases which,The proper calculation uses credit purchases which, again, an outsider rarely knows. Usually COGS is usedagain, an outsider rarely knows. Usually COGS is used as a substitute. COGS differs from credit sales because:as a substitute. COGS differs from credit sales because: – Firm may be adding or depleting inventory; purchasing at aFirm may be adding or depleting inventory; purchasing at a different rate than it is selling.different rate than it is selling. – COGS includes a mark-up for depreciation and labor makingCOGS includes a mark-up for depreciation and labor making COGS larger than credit purchases so this ratio is, on average,COGS larger than credit purchases so this ratio is, on average, artificially small.artificially small. – Thus it is difficult to compare the 18.9 days to its credit terms. ItThus it is difficult to compare the 18.9 days to its credit terms. It is, however, reasonable to compare this to last year’s ratio.is, however, reasonable to compare this to last year’s ratio. days9.18 days365/1.501$ 9.25$ dayperpurchasesCredit payableAccounts ===PeriodPayables
  • 18. Financial LeverageFinancial Leverage • Timberland has $1.80 in assets for every dollarTimberland has $1.80 in assets for every dollar that shareholders have invested.that shareholders have invested. • This is a relatively modest amount of leverageThis is a relatively modest amount of leverage for a manufacturing company.for a manufacturing company. • Other leverage ratios tell us the same thing:Other leverage ratios tell us the same thing: – Debt to assets – 43.3%Debt to assets – 43.3% – Debt to equity – 76.3%Debt to equity – 76.3% 8.1 2.266$ 4.469$ equityrs'Shareholde Assets ===LeverageFinancial
  • 19. Coverage RatiosCoverage Ratios • Often more informative than the leverage ratiosOften more informative than the leverage ratios are “coverage ratios.”are “coverage ratios.” • These ratios tell us what the firm is earning eachThese ratios tell us what the firm is earning each year relative to the burden the debt imposes.year relative to the burden the debt imposes. times2.10 5.9$ 5.96$ ExpenseInterest EBIT earnedinterestTimes === times2.10 )0.87/8.271/(0.0$5.9$ 5.96$ rateTax1 repaymentPrincial Interest EBIT coveredburdenTimes = −+ =       − + =
  • 20. Liquidity RatiosLiquidity Ratios • A further determinant of a firm’s debt capacity isA further determinant of a firm’s debt capacity is the liquidity of its assets relative to its liabilities.the liquidity of its assets relative to its liabilities. • The two common ratios used to measureThe two common ratios used to measure liquidity are the current ratio and the quick ratioliquidity are the current ratio and the quick ratio (also called the “acid test”).(also called the “acid test”). times0.4 7.95$ 5.387$ sliabilitieCurrent assetsCurrent ratioCurrent === times7.2 7.95$ 2.131$5.387$ sliabilitieCurrent Inventory-assetsCurrent ratioQuick = − ==
  • 21. Limitations of Ratio AnalysisLimitations of Ratio Analysis • We have been talking as if management alwaysWe have been talking as if management always wants to increase ROE or as if a high ROE iswants to increase ROE or as if a high ROE is always better.always better. – If company A has a higher ROE than company B isIf company A has a higher ROE than company B is company A necessarily better?company A necessarily better? – If a company increases its ROE is it necessarilyIf a company increases its ROE is it necessarily evidence of improved performance?evidence of improved performance? • There are three critical problems with ROE.There are three critical problems with ROE. – Often called the timing problem, the value problem,Often called the timing problem, the value problem, and the risk problem.and the risk problem.
  • 22. The Timing ProblemThe Timing Problem • As a decision-maker in a business environmentAs a decision-maker in a business environment you are often encouraged to focus your attentionyou are often encouraged to focus your attention on the past and particularly on one period in theon the past and particularly on one period in the past – correct?past – correct? • Sounds silly, but this is exactly what ROE does.Sounds silly, but this is exactly what ROE does. • Clearly last year’s ROE must be taken inClearly last year’s ROE must be taken in context.context. – If not it is virtually meaningless.If not it is virtually meaningless. – If company ROE was lower last year than it was twoIf company ROE was lower last year than it was two years ago the companyyears ago the company mustmust be doing worse –be doing worse – correct?correct?
  • 23. The Risk ProblemThe Risk Problem • We talked a lot about how risk and return goWe talked a lot about how risk and return go together. ROE is a “return” like measure sotogether. ROE is a “return” like measure so where is the risk dimension?where is the risk dimension? • This problem alone makes ROE an inaccurateThis problem alone makes ROE an inaccurate and possibly misleading indicator of financialand possibly misleading indicator of financial performance.performance. • One has to realize that the risk dimension isOne has to realize that the risk dimension is missing and so be particularly wary of makingmissing and so be particularly wary of making comparisons across companies using ROEcomparisons across companies using ROE alone.alone.
  • 24. The Value ProblemThe Value Problem • ROE measures a “return” figure but it is basedROE measures a “return” figure but it is based on two accounting figures.on two accounting figures. • The numerator is net income and this is not freeThe numerator is net income and this is not free cash flow (the cash flow that the company couldcash flow (the cash flow that the company could payout to its investors).payout to its investors). • Secondly, even if net income is close to freeSecondly, even if net income is close to free cash flow, ROE is measured relative to bookcash flow, ROE is measured relative to book value of equity not the market value of equity.value of equity not the market value of equity. • It is the market value investors must pay toIt is the market value investors must pay to purchase a share of the firm’s equity and this ispurchase a share of the firm’s equity and this is generally higher than the book value.generally higher than the book value.
  • 25. Ratio Analysis For TimberlandRatio Analysis For Timberland • Given the limitations of ratio analysis the mostGiven the limitations of ratio analysis the most useful way to evaluate financial ratios is byuseful way to evaluate financial ratios is by examining their changes over time.examining their changes over time. • Comparing the ratios to industry averagesComparing the ratios to industry averages provides an interesting benchmark butprovides an interesting benchmark but differences between companies in a givendifferences between companies in a given industry can make the exercise misleading.industry can make the exercise misleading. • A systematic approach will also help alleviateA systematic approach will also help alleviate the information overload that results from thethe information overload that results from the random calculation of countless ratios.random calculation of countless ratios.
  • 26. A Systematic ApproachA Systematic Approach • At the top tier of ratios lie ROE and ROA.At the top tier of ratios lie ROE and ROA. • The major levers of performance are in the nextThe major levers of performance are in the next tier, followed by more narrowly focused ratios:tier, followed by more narrowly focused ratios: – Profit margin:Profit margin: • Gross margin, tax rate, normalized income statementGross margin, tax rate, normalized income statement – Asset turnover:Asset turnover: • Control ratios (inventory turnover, fixed asset turnover,Control ratios (inventory turnover, fixed asset turnover, collection period, days sales in cash, payables period),collection period, days sales in cash, payables period), normalized balance sheetnormalized balance sheet – Financial leverage:Financial leverage: • Leverage ratios, coverage ratios, liquidity ratiosLeverage ratios, coverage ratios, liquidity ratios
  • 27. Ratio Analysis of Timberland Company 1994 - 1998 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Industry Median Major Ratios ROE 11.9 (8.2) 12.3 22.1 22.2 12.3 ROA 3.8 (2.8) 4.5 11.3 12.6 7.4 ROIC 7.1 0.7 9.6 18.3 17.9 9.7 Profitability Ratios Profit Margin 2.8 (1.8) 3.0 5.9 6.9 4.2 Gross Margin 35.0 33.7 39.4 41.7 41.9 38.4 Price to earnings ratio 13.5 NA 20.7 13.9 8.5 15.0 Turnover and Control Ratios Asset Turnover 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 Fixed-asset Turnover 9.3 12.5 14.1 15.1 15.2 9.2 Inventory Turnover 1.9 2.4 2.6 3.3 3.8 2.7 Collection Period 73.5 53.4 53.2 34.7 33.4 39.1 Days' Sales in Cash 3.7 21.4 49.4 45.3 64.3 10.8 Payables Period 32.6 21.2 18.6 16.0 18.9 36.3 Leverage and Liquidity Ratios Assets to Equity 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.7 Debt to Assets 68.5 66.2 63.2 48.8 43.3 39.6 Debt to Equity 217.4 196.3 171.9 95.4 76.3 65.5 Times Interest Earned 2.9 0.2 2.5 5.6 10.2 9.1 Times Burden Covered 1.6 0.1 1.1 5.6 10.2 7.4 Current Ratio 3.5 4.8 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.0 Acid Test 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.7 1.5
  • 28. Ratio Analysis of TimberlandRatio Analysis of Timberland • ROE:ROE: – After a loss in ’95 the ROE is up to a strong 22.2% inAfter a loss in ’95 the ROE is up to a strong 22.2% in ’98. This is strong relative to its industry and to the’98. This is strong relative to its industry and to the median firm in the S&P500 that year which had anmedian firm in the S&P500 that year which had an ROE of 14.8%.ROE of 14.8%. – The other major ratios show similar patterns.The other major ratios show similar patterns. • The rise in ROE is coming from the increase inThe rise in ROE is coming from the increase in its profit margin and asset turnover and isits profit margin and asset turnover and is somewhat offset by the reduction in its financialsomewhat offset by the reduction in its financial leverage.leverage.
  • 29. Ratio Analysis of TimberlandRatio Analysis of Timberland • The increased profit margin is coming primarilyThe increased profit margin is coming primarily from a rising gross margin indicating that it isfrom a rising gross margin indicating that it is some combination of more aggressive pricingsome combination of more aggressive pricing and cost control that has driven the increase.and cost control that has driven the increase. • Improved asset turnover reflects overallImproved asset turnover reflects overall improved asset management.improved asset management. – Inventory turnover and fixed asset turnover areInventory turnover and fixed asset turnover are strongly higher.strongly higher. – The only asset rising relative to sales is cash. Is thisThe only asset rising relative to sales is cash. Is this good or bad?good or bad? • Leverage and liquidity ratios all show increasingLeverage and liquidity ratios all show increasing financial conservatism.financial conservatism.
  • 30. Normalized FinancialNormalized Financial StatementsStatements • Note on the normalized balance sheet that 80%Note on the normalized balance sheet that 80% of the firm’s assets are current assets.of the firm’s assets are current assets. – This highlights the importance of working capitalThis highlights the importance of working capital management.management. – Note the reduction in inventories and accountsNote the reduction in inventories and accounts receivable noted above.receivable noted above. • The normalized income statement is pleasantThe normalized income statement is pleasant reading.reading. – Profit margin and gross margin are up since ’95.Profit margin and gross margin are up since ’95. – Results would have been better except for the rise inResults would have been better except for the rise in SG&A expenses.SG&A expenses.
  • 31. Common-Sized Balance Sheet for Timberland and Industry 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Industry Average Assets Cash and marketable securities 1.3% 9.1% 20.8% 23.5% 32.4% 7.4% Accounts receivable 27.1 22.7 22.4 18.0 16.8 22.7 Inventories 46.1 42.9 35.4 34.0 28.0 37.1 Prepaid expenses and other current assets 4.4 5.5 4.1 5.9 5.4 5.5 Total current assets 79.0 80.2 82.6 81.4 82.6 72.0 Property, plant, and equipment 23.4 22.8 23.1 27.7 28.0 31.5 Less accumulated depreciation and amortization 9.0 10.3 12.2 15.1 15.8 13.6 Net property, plant, and equipment 14.4 12.4 10.9 12.6 12.1 17.9 Intangible assets 5.5 5.8 5.0 5.0 4.1 3.2 Other assets 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.2 6.9 Total assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity Accounts payable 7.8% 6.0% 4.7% 4.9% 5.5% 11.2% Notes payable 4.8 -- -- -- -- 2.0 Current portion of long-term debt 1.7 1.8 4.0 -- -- 1.0 Wages payable 1.9 0.2 2.6 4.2 3.9 -- Accrued expenses 6.4 8.5 11.3 14.5 11.0 10.0 Total current liabilities 22.6 16.5 22.7 23.6 20.4 24.2 Long-term debt 43.7 47.3 38.2 23.8 21.3 14.8 Deferred income taxes 2.2 2.4 2.4 1.4 1.6 1.0 Total liabilities 68.5 66.3 63.2 48.8 43.3 39.9 Common stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 Additional paid-in capital 12.2 14.2 13.7 16.3 15.9 10.8 Retained earnings 19.3 19.6 23.0 34.8 44.2 54.8 Less treasury stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 10.2 Total shareholders' equity 31.5 33.7 36.8 51.2 56.7 60.1 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 32. Normalized Income Statement for Timberland and Industry 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Industry Average Net sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Cost of sales 65.0 66.3 60.6 58.5 58.3 60.8 Gross profit 35.0 33.7 39.4 41.5 41.7 39.2 S,G,& A expenses 25.8 29.4 28.9 28.4 28.6 29.3 Depreciation and amortization 2.4 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.8 Total operating expenses 28.2 32.3 32.0 31.0 30.7 31.0 Operating income 6.8 1.4 7.4 10.5 11.0 8.2 Interest expense 2.4 3.5 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.7 Other expense (income) -- 0.2 (0.1) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) Extraordinary expense (income) -- 0.6 -- -- -- 0.4 Total nonoperating expenses 2.3 4.2 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.9 Income before income taxes 4.4 (2.9) 4.5 8.5 10.1 7.3 Provision for income taxes 1.6 (1.1) 1.5 2.5 3.2 2.7 Net income 2.8 (1.8) 3.0 5.9 6.9 4.6
  • 33. SummarySummary • What is being reflected here is a robust recoveryWhat is being reflected here is a robust recovery from a difficult period in the firm’s history.from a difficult period in the firm’s history. – In ’94 the firm experienced a 50% increase in salesIn ’94 the firm experienced a 50% increase in sales driven by “fad” demand for its product.driven by “fad” demand for its product. – In response Timberland over-expanded and lostIn response Timberland over-expanded and lost control of assets, particularly inventory and accountscontrol of assets, particularly inventory and accounts receivable.receivable. – The bubble burst in ’95.The bubble burst in ’95. – Since then they have aggressively managed assetsSince then they have aggressively managed assets and reduced debt.and reduced debt. – Challenge ahead is what to do with all the excessChallenge ahead is what to do with all the excess cash being generated and a question of whether theycash being generated and a question of whether they can rekindle growth.can rekindle growth.