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SEPA Summit 2011
This document discusses the state of digital publishing in 2011 and some milestones ahead. It notes that 2011 marked a threshold with e-readers like the Kindle and iPad taking off, and ebooks gaining a sizable share of the book market in the US. Key topics covered include the fast growth of mobile devices and apps, the rise of ebooks particularly in fiction, and challenges for publishers in converting print content to digital.
SEPA Summit 2011
- 1. To 20:20 AndBeyond ‣Where are we ? ‣Reading device threshold ‣Our stories transform lives ‣Some milemarkers ahead 1 #SEPA2011 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 2. Stories of faith& transformation, across digital platforms Bob Carlton LMK Consulting 27 years in publishing 17 years digital 7 startups • Digital transformation Author, blogger Austin, TX • Social media #SEPA2011 2 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 3. • Where arewe ? • 2011 Threshold • U.S. eBook market Hawaiian surfer Garrett McNamara, Nazare Canyon off Portugal • The Waves Ahead The 1000-ft deep and 3-mile wide underwater canyon – which stretches for 105 miles – acts likes a funnel when it receives Atlantic swells, creating huge waves. Some estimate that McNamara's wave was 27-metre (90ft) high, which would top the current Guinness World Records holder Mike Parson's 77ft monster at Cortez Bank in 2001 #SEPA2011 3 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 4. Where are we? • Economy Only Certainty is Uncertainty • Globality Aren’t In Kansas Anymore… • Mega-Trend of 21st Century Empowerment of People via Connected Mobile Devices Source: KPCB Annual Outlook, 10/18/11 Mary Meeker 4 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 5. Where are we? • Mobile: Early Innings • Advertising: Lookin’ Growth, Still… Good…Fb, Mobile • User Interface: Text > • Content Creation – Changed Forever Graphical > Touch / Sound / Move • Authentic Identity – The Good / Bad / Ugly. But • Commerce: Fast / Easy / Fun / Savings Mostly Good? • More Important Than Ever… Source: KPBC Annual Outlook, 10/18/11 Mary Meeker 5 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 6. Where are we? • Mobile: Latinos/Latinas in U.S. have their mobile phones with them more than African Americans and even more than non-Hispanic whites • Social: 67% of Latinos/Latinas in U.S use social networking sites, slightly above the average rate • Video: 64% of Spanish-speaking internet users visited a video site in the past month, compared with 50% of the general population Source: eMarketer 2011 6 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 7. 2011: Device Threshold • 70% of eReader device market is Kindle • nook & Kobo gaining • 97% of tablet market currently is iPad • Average user has downloaded 60 apps on average. In Q410, number was 10 ✓ older readers read faster than normal on an iPad, than they do when using a Kindle or traditional paper book - greater retention as well ✓ 77% of tablet owners use their tablets every day ✓ 27% of tablet users use their tablets for reading books daily Source: Gartner study, Sept 2011 7 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 8. 2011: Device Threshold iPad Kindle nook Launched Q210 Q407 Q309 Units 29MM 16MM ~6MM AMZN Positioning Apps Hybrid Media ✓creating direct to consumer channels - app store still very inefficient ✓competition for content locker in the cloud and differentiated content ✓ self-publishing conduit for AMZN (CreateSpace), B&N (PubIT) ✓Google & Microsoft both appear on sidelines Source: Gartner study, Sept 2011 8 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 9. eBook Wave HasHit U.S. Source: AAP study, Oct 2011 9 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 10. Wave By ContentArea • Fiction is the leading sales driver of e- books, with 61% of unit sales in 2010 and 51% of revenue • Nonfiction accounted for the second highest amount of e-book revenue in 2010, with the segment representing 14% of sales • Children's segment generated 12% of unit sales in 2010 Source: AAP study, Oct 2011 10 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 11. Wave By ContentArea Source: Context, Not a Container, Brian O’Leary 9 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 12. What’s Behind Wave? Source: PWC study, August 2011 12 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 13. Power Surfer Profile Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011 13 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 14. Power Surfer Profile Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011 14 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 15. Power Surfer Profile Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011 15 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 16. More Frequent Purchases Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011 16 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 17. Publishers’ Shifting Water Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011 17 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 18. Publishers’ Shifting Water Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011 18 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 19. Publishers’ Promos Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011 19 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 20. Academic trailing Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011 20 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 21. some waves ahead #SEPA2011 21 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 22. #SEPA2011 22 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 23. Digital Conversion Costs • $111: median cost per title • Simple title: $55 • Moderate titles: $97 • Complex titles: $181 #SEPA2011 23 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 24. Typical Digital Sales • Top 10 title: 480 units • Top 50 title: 235 • Average for all ISBN: 13 #SEPA2011 24 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 25. Navigating These Waters • Competing harder in fewer segments ? • Greater need/opportunity for partnerships • Digital shift = cultural shift for organizations #SEPA2011 25 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 26. publishers link contentto markets far too often + markets are something we outsource + context is the last thing we think about #SEPA2011 26 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 27. Content to Markets major change in the way consumers make decisions ➡ marketers must move aggressively ➡ beyond purely push-style communication ➡ learn to influence consumer-driven touch points, such as word-of-mouth & Internet information sites 67% of of the touch points during the active-evaluation phase involve consumer-driven marketing activities postpurchase experience shapes their opinion for every subsequent decision in the category Source: McKinsey Digital Marketing 27 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 28. Content to Markets • both business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) purchasers increasingly want marketers to help them make smart decisions • tailor message to audiences and stage in consideration process • be much more specific about the touch points used to influence consumers as they move through initial consideration to active evaluation to closure • invest in vehicles that let marketers interact with consumers as they learn about brands Source: McKinsey Digital Marketing 28 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 29. Navigating These Waters Source: McKinsey Digital Marketing 29 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 30. Lessons from LeanStartup & Open Source • "release early. release often. and listen to your customers, not your developers." • customer development always trumps product dev • minimum viable book • smallest in-progress subset of your book that you could sell and be able to claim with a straight face that it is worth the money right now • copy editing, indexing and distribution • areas that publishers may continue to add value in for a long time Source: McKinsey Digital Marketing 30 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 31. ...2 last things #SEPA2011 31 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 32. kids storybook apps adult story apps mission st clare cinderella ~ nosy crow holiday eats - big oven wasteland - touch press morris lessmore ~ moonbot budhify speakeasy - open air our choice - push pop press YouVersion Tuesday, November 15, 11 Next Waves in U.S. 32
- 33. Our stories transformlives • Write ourselves into the story world and infuse it with your soul • in most media what's missing is the pain -- not yearning, but true loss • story crucial to transmedia • project should not originate from the desire to make use of new technology, but from the desire to tell a captivating story • collaboration is the only path forward • complex (who owns the story?) #SEPA2011 33 Tuesday, November 15, 11
- 34. Bob Carlton bob@cadabramedia.com Cadabra Media @cadabramedia LMK Consulting @bobcarlton Tuesday, November 15, 11