This document discusses the state of digital publishing in 2011 and some milestones ahead. It notes that 2011 marked a threshold with e-readers like the Kindle and iPad taking off, and ebooks gaining a sizable share of the book market in the US. Key topics covered include the fast growth of mobile devices and apps, the rise of ebooks particularly in fiction, and challenges for publishers in converting print content to digital.

1. To 20:20 And Beyond
‣Where are we ?
‣Reading device threshold
‣Our stories transform lives
‣Some milemarkers ahead
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#SEPA2011
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2. Stories of faith &
transformation, across
digital platforms
Bob Carlton LMK Consulting
27 years in publishing
17 years digital
7 startups • Digital
transformation
Author, blogger
Austin, TX • Social media
#SEPA2011
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3. • Where are we ?
• 2011 Threshold
• U.S. eBook market Hawaiian surfer Garrett McNamara,
Nazare Canyon off Portugal
• The Waves Ahead The 1000-ft deep and 3-mile wide underwater canyon – which
stretches for 105 miles – acts likes a funnel when it receives
Atlantic swells, creating huge waves.
Some estimate that McNamara's wave was 27-metre (90ft) high,
which would top the current Guinness World Records holder
Mike Parson's 77ft monster at Cortez Bank in 2001
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4. Where are we ?
• Economy Only Certainty is Uncertainty
• Globality Aren’t In Kansas Anymore…
• Mega-Trend of 21st Century
Empowerment of People
via Connected Mobile Devices
Source: KPCB Annual Outlook, 10/18/11 Mary Meeker
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5. Where are we ?
• Mobile: Early Innings • Advertising: Lookin’
Growth, Still… Good…Fb, Mobile
• User Interface: Text > • Content Creation –
Changed Forever
Graphical > Touch /
Sound / Move
• Authentic Identity – The
Good / Bad / Ugly. But
• Commerce: Fast / Easy /
Fun / Savings Mostly Good?
• More Important Than Ever…
Source: KPBC Annual Outlook, 10/18/11 Mary Meeker
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6. Where are we ?
• Mobile: Latinos/Latinas in U.S. have their mobile
phones with them more than African Americans
and even more than non-Hispanic whites
• Social: 67% of Latinos/Latinas in U.S use social
networking sites, slightly above the average rate
• Video: 64% of Spanish-speaking internet users
visited a video site in the past month, compared
with 50% of the general population
Source: eMarketer 2011
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7. 2011: Device Threshold
• 70% of eReader device market is
Kindle
• nook & Kobo gaining
• 97% of tablet market currently is
iPad
• Average user has downloaded 60 apps
on average. In Q410, number was 10
✓ older readers read faster than normal on an iPad, than they do when using
a Kindle or traditional paper book - greater retention as well
✓ 77% of tablet owners use their tablets every day
✓ 27% of tablet users use their tablets for reading books daily
Source: Gartner study, Sept 2011
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8. 2011: Device Threshold
iPad Kindle nook
Launched Q210 Q407 Q309
Units 29MM 16MM ~6MM
AMZN
Positioning Apps Hybrid
Media
✓creating direct to consumer channels - app store still very inefficient
✓competition for content locker in the cloud and differentiated content
✓ self-publishing conduit for AMZN (CreateSpace), B&N (PubIT)
✓Google & Microsoft both appear on sidelines
Source: Gartner study, Sept 2011
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9. eBook Wave Has Hit U.S.
Source: AAP study, Oct 2011
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10. Wave By Content Area
• Fiction is the leading sales driver of e-
books, with 61% of unit sales in 2010 and
51% of revenue
• Nonfiction accounted for the second
highest amount of e-book revenue in 2010,
with the segment representing 14% of sales
• Children's segment generated 12% of unit
sales in 2010
Source: AAP study, Oct 2011
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11. Wave By Content Area
Source: Context, Not a Container, Brian O’Leary
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12. What’s Behind Wave ?
Source: PWC study, August 2011
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13. Power Surfer Profile
Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011
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14. Power Surfer Profile
Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011
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15. Power Surfer Profile
Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011
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16. More Frequent Purchases
Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011
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17. Publishers’ Shifting Water
Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011
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18. Publishers’ Shifting Water
Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011
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19. Publishers’ Promos
Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011
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20. Academic trailing
Source: Bowker/BISG Pubtrack, May 2011
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21. some
waves
ahead
#SEPA2011
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22. #SEPA2011
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23. Digital Conversion Costs
• $111: median cost
per title
• Simple title: $55
• Moderate titles: $97
• Complex titles: $181
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24. Typical Digital Sales
• Top 10 title: 480
units
• Top 50 title: 235
• Average for all
ISBN: 13
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25. Navigating These Waters
• Competing harder in fewer segments ?
• Greater need/opportunity for partnerships
• Digital shift = cultural shift for organizations
#SEPA2011
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26. publishers link content to markets
far too often
+ markets are something we outsource
+ context is the last thing we think about
#SEPA2011
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27. Content to Markets
major change in the way
consumers make decisions
➡ marketers must move aggressively
➡ beyond purely push-style
communication
➡ learn to influence consumer-driven
touch points, such as word-of-mouth
& Internet information sites
67% of of the touch points during
the active-evaluation phase involve
consumer-driven marketing
activities
postpurchase experience shapes
their opinion for every subsequent
decision in the category
Source: McKinsey Digital Marketing
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28. Content to Markets
• both business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business
(B2B) purchasers increasingly want marketers to help
them make smart decisions
• tailor message to audiences and stage in consideration process
• be much more specific about the touch points used to influence consumers as
they move through initial consideration to active evaluation to closure
• invest in vehicles that let marketers interact with consumers as they learn about
brands
Source: McKinsey Digital Marketing
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29. Navigating These Waters
Source: McKinsey Digital Marketing
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30. Lessons from Lean Startup &
Open Source
• "release early. release often. and listen to your customers,
not your developers."
• customer development always trumps product dev
• minimum viable book
• smallest in-progress subset of your book that you could sell and be able to claim
with a straight face that it is worth the money right now
• copy editing, indexing and distribution
• areas that publishers may continue to add value in for a long time
Source: McKinsey Digital Marketing
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31. ...2 last things
#SEPA2011
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32. kids storybook apps adult story apps
mission st clare
cinderella ~ nosy crow holiday eats - big oven
wasteland - touch press
morris lessmore ~ moonbot
budhify
speakeasy - open air our choice - push pop press
YouVersion
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Next Waves in U.S. 32

33. Our stories transform lives
• Write ourselves into the story world and infuse
it with your soul
• in most media what's missing is the pain -- not yearning, but true loss
• story crucial to transmedia
• project should not originate from the desire to make use of new technology,
but from the desire to tell a captivating story
• collaboration is the only path forward
• complex (who owns the story?)
#SEPA2011
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34. Bob Carlton
bob@cadabramedia.com
Cadabra Media @cadabramedia
LMK Consulting @bobcarlton
Tuesday, November 15, 11