Semantische Analyse: "Marke" Deutschlands in den USA

Presented at
Berlin, June 2018
Best Friends
Forever?
How the US thinks
and feels about
Germany

22018_07_30_Best Friends Forever.pptx
The Task
> Working assumption: Germany has lost relevance in the United States
> The "Germany Year USA 2018/2019" undertaken by the German Foreign Office
and partners is an effort to counteract this and strengthen ties
> Question: What can Germany do, and how can transatlantic institutions help,
to improve perceptions of Germany in the US?

First-ever Perception Value Management (PVM) analysis of
Germany
Perception of Germany’s performance in the world is strong,
but that is not always positive – seen as a threatening power
Topline findings
1
2
3
A mismatch between general public opinion (big data analysis) and
expert opinion (survey of transatlantic experts) is low
Perception on "Character" and "Sympathy" values is low

Big Data
Analysis
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4
> Public perceptions
reflected in social, online
and print media
– Twitter analysis over
one year
(September 1, 2016-
September 1, 2017)
– 25 most prominent print
and online US media
outlets
– Standard Risk Analysis
and specified PVM
Analysis
> Online stakeholder survey
with a select group of 25
transatlantic experts from
the policy, business and
think tank sectors
> Equal parts US/ German
citizens
> Recommendations for an
advanced communication
strategy to help
strengthen the perception
of Germany in the United
States and support
transatlantic ties.
> Analysis of findings using
Perception Value
Management Matrix
> Comparison of Big Data
Analysis and Stakeholder
Survey Results
The 4 step approach towards suggestions for improvement
Stakeholder
Survey
Evaluation and
Comparison
Recommenda-
tions

Big Data Analytics: Twitter Analysis
Step 1: Analysis
Total volume of tweets: 9,996,563 Related topics
Data made available by Twitter Analytics; data refers to total amount of tweets with search criteria

Step 1: Analysis
Sentiment analysis

Step 1: Analysis
Emotion analysis Word clusters

Step 1: Analysis
Most influential Twitter authors

Big Data Analytics: Media outlets
13. Philadelphia Inquirer and
Philadelphia Daily News
14. The Houston Chronicle
15. The Dallas Morning News
16. Seattle Times
17. The Arizona Republic
18. The StarTribune
19. The Denver Post
20. The Plain Dealer
21. The Oregonian
22. The Detroit Free Press
23. The Tampa Tribune
24. Newsday
25. San Diego Union-Tribune
1. USA Today
2. The New York Times
3. The Wall Street Journal
4. The Los Angeles Times
5. The Washington Post
6. New York Daily News
7. The San Francisco
Chronicle
8. The New York Post
9. The Chicago Tribune
10. The Star-Ledger
11. The San Jose Mercury
News, Contra Costa Times
and The Oakland Tribune
12. Chicago Sun-Times
Step 1: Analysis

Big Data Analytics: Perception Value Management Matrix
Step 1: Analysis
Key tenets
> PVM methodology was developed by Prof. Torsten Oltmanns, Roland Berger, and
Prof. Ivo Hajnal, University of Innsbruck
> Measures general sentiment and attitude towards Germany;
> Measures particular perception on "Performance," Sympathy" and "Character";
> Evaluates a large segment of data from print and online media, social media,
websites and blogs;
> Measures perception criteria based on over 200 selectors;
> Focuses on main traditional news and social media outlets in the US;
> Allows for a short-term prognosis regarding trends, challenges and potential crisis
situations;
> Evaluation of results is based on the Perception Value Management Concept;
> Results are used to design an integrated communication strategy that will
strengthen Germany’s perception in the US;
> The matrix has been used in corporate analysis but not in "nation-branding" (use of
corporate marketing techniques by countries to enhance international reputation)

Perception Value Triangle
1. Performance (strengthens authority) –
"Logos"
a. Cognition: Is the problem understood?
b. Competence: Are the required skills for
problem solving available?
c. Reflection: Who are responsible leaders/acting
parties?
2. Sympathy (builds coalition) – "Pathos"
a. Commonalities: What are the common points
of view?
b. Openness: Is there respect and tolerance for
other opinions?
c. Interaction: Are there opportunities for
cooperation and exchange?
3. Character (establishes trust) – "Ethos"
a. Legibility: Identifying positions and values
b. Integrity: Understanding deeper motives
c. Consistency: Establishing reliability
Step 1: Analysis

Multiplying Factors for Risk Analysis and PVM Calculation
Sample
Total
Lexicon
Factor
up to 100%
Factor for
General Lexicon
Total Impact
Factor
Risk Print:
Media USA
72% ≈ 1,4 ≈ 8 11,2
Risk Twitter:
Twitter USA
52% ≈ 2 ≈ 8 16
PVM Print:
Medien USA
5% ≈ 20 – 20
PVM Twitter:
Twitter USA
2,8% ≈ 35 – 35
Step 1: Analysis
General psychological selectors for Risk and PVM-Analysis

Positive
Emotions
Negative
Emotions
Anxiety
Anger
Sadness
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Bad feelings cancel out good feelings.
Print and Online Media USA (September 2016–September 2017); Search Criteria:
"Germany", "Merkel"
Step 1: Analysis

Discrepancy
Difference
Implementation Skills
Power
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Germany is a powerhouse; is that good?
Step 1: Analysis
Print and Online Media USA
(September 2016–September 2017; Search Criteria: "Germany", "Merkel")

Positive Emotions
Negative Emotions
Anxiety
Anger
Sadness
-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Row 1/2: USA total 17/16
Row 3/4: Texas 17/16
Row 5/6: New York 17/16
Twitter captures strong negative emotions. Texas is harsher than
New York.
Step 1: Analysis
Twitter (September 2016–September 2017; Search Criteria: "Germany", "Merkel")

Discrepancy
Difference
Implementation Skills
Power
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Row 1/2: USA total 17/16
Row 3/4: Texas 17/16
Row 5/6: New York 17/16
Germany is viewed as a power both on Twitter and in news media.
Step 1: Analysis
Twitter (September 2016–September 2017); Search Criteria: "Germany", "Merkel"

PVM-Values in journalistic media show a deficit on "sympathy"
Media
9/16-9/17
7,2
10,0
4,4
1,03,4
9,0
-9,2
-7,00
-5,4
-7,2
7,2
4,5
Step 1: Analysis
PVM Analysis Media, online and print
Source: Data: Nina Smidt, 2017
Dangerous
Be aware
No concern

Twitter
9/16-9/17
Dangerous
Be aware
No concern
3,2
6,7
5,6
-0,74,2
6,3
-15,4
-8,4
-3,5
-9,1
5,2
3,3
PVM-Values on Twitter (USA total) show a more critical image than
journalistic media
Step 1: Analysis
PVM Analysis Twitter USA

Interim Results – 1
Interim Results
Performance value – strong, but also seen as threat
Character value – weak, underdeveloped
Sympathy value – almost undetectable
Translate findings into PVM Analysis

Stakeholder Survey: Germany and Merkel are perceived positively
…
Step 2: Stakeholder Survey
Strengths

… but problems are apparent
Weaknesses

Overall relations are strong, or at least normal …
Opportunities

… but Germany cannot be complacent
Threats

Interim Results – 2
Mismatch between Big Data Analysis and Stakeholder Survey.
There is a mismatch between the big data analysis (representing a wide US
audience) and the survey of a select group of transatlantic experts:
> Topics that the select group considers important (economy, trade, NATO, EU leadership) are
not the ones reflected in big data (Merkel, Trump, Nazi history, far-right parties in Germany)
> Big data analysis and survey agree: Germany is strong on "Performance"
> However, "Performance" is viewed positively by survey group and negatively by wider US
population
> "Sympathy" related values do not occur at all in big data analysis: Friendship, Fun, Sports,
Music, Culture
> Mismatch becomes even more apparent in the comparison of New York as a blue state and
Texas as a red state
Interim Results

PVM Matrix – SWOT Analysis
Step 3: Evaluation and Comparison
Strengths
> Germany perceived as strong in performance
Weaknesses
> Germany is weak in character and sympathy
Opportunities
> Turn performance perception into a positive
connotation
Threats
> Strong performance viewed as threatening
SWOT

Perception of Germany in the US shows need for action.
> Perception of Germany in US media is
relatively negative and often reflects anger
> Performance orientation is strong, seen as
positive in the context of a strong economy
> However, Germany is viewed as a
powerhouse, not necessarily in a positive way
> Perceptions expressed on Twitter reflect
those in general media
> Perceptions more negative in conservative
states (e.g. Texas) vs. liberal (e.g. New York)
Step 3: Evaluation and Comparison

Challenges
Step 4: Recommendations
> Perception beats performance – What people
believe or feel about a brand carries more
weight than its long-term performance
> Opinion beats factual reasoning – People are
looking for confirmation of their deeply held
views, tied to their social and cultural identity
The answer: an advanced communication
strategy to counteract these challenges
and strengthen the perception of Germany
in the US

Where do we go from here?
> Working assumption: Germany has lost relevance in the United States
> Question: What can Germany do, and how transatlantic institutions help,
to improve perceptions of Germany in the US?
> Mismatch between Big Data Analytics and Stakeholder Survey
> Strong on "Performance", but that is not always good
> Weak on "Sympathy" and "Character"
> Need to re-think communication strategy for Germany
> Along the lines of "Performance Plus"

Contact
Prof. Dr. Torsten Oltmanns
Chair Berlin&Brandenburg, AmCham Germany
Partner Executive Communications, Chairman Global Marketing, Roland Berger GmbH
Phone: +4930/39927 - 3366
e-mail: torsten.oltmanns@rolandberger.com
Dr. Nina Smidt
President American Friends o Bucerius, New York/Hamburg
Phone: +49 173 2479671
e-mail: ninasmidt@yahoo.com

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