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Selecting Corridors for Bus Rapid Transit Using a Multicriteria Method

Eric Holeman


Chicago Transit Authority
120 N. Racine Avenue
Chicago IL 60607
Tel. (312) 733-7000
Fax (312) 432-7127
Email: ehol@xmission.com
Eric Holeman                                                                                                   2




ABSTRACT
Many bus rapid transit (BRT) projects result from the availability of a single vacant corridor, such as an abandoned
rail right of way. Deciding where to implement BRT service in an existing transit network, in the absence of an
obvious corridor, is a more difficult question. Various factors, such as the potential rider density, possible travel
speed, and distance from other rapid transit corridors all weigh into the mix. Often the objectives tend to be mutually
exclusive: a corridor that can provide fast travel times may offer few potential riders, while the corridor that
provides the most riders may be along a traffic-clogged arterial. Where no one corridor is perfect, the best choice is
necessarily a compromise between varied and often conflicting objectives.

Because of the conflicting objectives, a multicriteria method was chosen to address the question of identifying
potential BRT corridors. Four alternatives were compared across a number of different criteria. The concordance
analysis method was chosen because of its usefulness in evaluating alternatives where the differences are both
measurable and scalable. By placing different weights on the various objectives, the concordance analysis method
show method does not result in the selection of one superior alternative, but instead shows how alternatives
compare, given a particular set of priorities. Conversely, by showing how weighted alternatives rank, the method
reveals the priorities involved in the choice of a given alternative. The results point strongly to an alternative that
was eventually chosen by the transit agency for a limited-stop BRT-type service.
Eric Holeman                                                                                                3



INTRODUCTION
The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) has encouraged bus rapid transit (BRT) as a way to develop new rapid
transit projects at a low up-front cost. A number have of these projects have been undertaken by U.S. transit
agencies. Many of those have typically taken advantage of the availability of a single corridor, such as Pittsburgh’s
use of an old rail right of way, or Seattle’s use of high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes along an Interstate highway
corridor.

Such corridors offer an obvious advantage in their ready availability. However, for an established urban transit
system that wishes to overlay BRT services on an existing network, the question of how to select the corridor to
upgrade becomes important. The goals of a BRT corridor typically involve providing a fast ride for a large number
of passengers, yet often the most densely populated transit corridors are those that provide the slowest bus
movement. Conversely, corridors that offer quick vehicle movement are often found in areas of automobile-oriented
development that aren’t likely to provide the number of riders needed to sustain a BRT service.

This paper shows how a transit agency can identify and select bus rapid transit corridors using a multicriteria
analysis method. The study compares a number of candidate corridors in an area of interest using various criteria
appropriate to the agency’s objectives in implementing a BRT service. Any corridor that is clearly superior to all
others may be identified as such. When no corridor is superior in all criteria, the corridors may be compared using
different criteria weightings reflecting different prioritizations of the importance of the various objectives.

DESCRIPTION OF CORRIDORS
Four corridors were considered for evaluation in the part of Chicago's South Side, between the Dan Ryan
expressway and Lake Michigan. The area of interest of the corridors extends for five miles, between 63rd Street to
the north and 103rd street to the south. Corridors evaluated were limited to those north-south corridors with existing
bus service. The corridors are described below and listed with a summary of their attributes in Table I. A map of the
corridors is provided in Figure 1.

Each of the four corridors presents varying degrees of acceptability for BRT service. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive,
though a broad boulevard for much of its length, narrows to two lanes through much of the area of interest. Cottage
Grove Avenue, a somewhat more commercially oriented corridor than King Drive, provides two traffic lanes in each
direction for most of its length. Stony Island Avenue, a broad auto-oriented thoroughfare, provides barrier-separated
multiple lanes for both north and southbound traffic. Like Cottage Grove, it is commercially oriented; though being
much wider, it has fewer residential buildings and minimal landscaping. Jeffery Boulevard is the narrowest of the
corridors, containing a single lane in each direction for all of its length. Although a narrow corridor like Jeffery is
not typically a candidate for BRT service, its high level of existing bus patronage merits its consideration in this
study.

METHOD
The concordance analysis method, as described by Giuliano (1) allows for the comparison of alternatives with
different, conflicting objectives. In applying the method, criteria are identified, and appropriate measures are
determined for each of the criteria. Data are then collected for each measure of each alternative candidate. The
alternatives can then be ranked according to one or more weightings of the measures. Consistently unattractive
alternatives can be readily identified and discarded, while the more attractive alternatives may then be compared
more directly.

Unlike a traditional cost-benefit approach, the concordance analysis method does not allow for the maximization of
a single outcome. Because of this, it is necessarily somewhat imprecise: several alternatives may emerge as viable,
and the preferred alternative may end up being superior in no one single measure. Yet because the method enables
the comparison of multiple favorable and unfavorable outcomes, the researcher may identify one or more
alternatives that offer an acceptable combination of outcomes. The method is appropriate for the problem of transit
corridor selection because each alternative presents an assortment of costs and benefits that aren’t easily scaled to
dollar values.
Eric Holeman                                                                                                  4


A number of studies have examined the usefulness of concordance analysis in addressing transportation issues.
Giuliano provided a demonstration of the method that compared transportation improvement alternatives.
Hastak and Abu-Mallouh (2) provided an example of using concordance analysis to prioritize transit station
improvement projects. Both studies strongly suggest the usefulness of concordance analysis as a tool to evaluate
transit corridors in situations where no single criterion is paramount—provided sufficient criteria to be optimized
can be measured and scaled.

Applying the Concordance Analysis Method to the problem BRT Corridor Selection
Once the criteria for comparing BRT corridors are identified, they can be evaluated using available measures. It is
assumed that the objectives of a transit operator, in implementing a BRT project include increasing patronage in the
corridor, improving service quality, minimizing operating costs, and avoiding competition with existing routes.
Increased Patronage
For the desired outcome of increased patronage, it is assumed that a high-ridership corridor has some residual
demand that may be served by providing BRT service. The capacity for patronage increase is therefore assumed to
be greatest in corridors that already have high ridership, and the current ridership in the corridor is assumed to be a
useful measurement of that potential.
         It is further assumed that customers prefer faster buses and are more likely to patronize a faster service.
Because a service that operates in relatively uncongested conditions is more likely to benefit from BRT conversion
than a service that is operating in crowded streets, the current operating speed of the bus will be used as a measure of
the corridor’s ability to attract increased ridership.

Improved Service Quality/Reduced Operating Cost
The outcome of improved service quality is somewhat harder to define, and not all aspects of it are necessarily
related to the corridors in which the service runs. However, it will be assumed that for purposes of selecting a
corridor that faster is better. For the transit agency, operating costs are directly related to operating speed—faster
buses mean lower costs. The measures of potential service improvement are also applicable to the objective of
minimizing operating cost, and will hereafter be treated as the same criterion. The current operating speed of the
existing bus service in a corridor, already identified as a measure for the potential of increased patronage, will also
serve as a measure of potential for improved service quality and reduced operating cost.
        The possibility of improving service further by adding lane restrictions is also considered, with the
assumption that such a service improvement is more possible if there are more lanes available. Therefore, the
number of traffic lanes in the corridor will provide another measures relating to service quality improvement.

Avoiding Competition with Existing Service
The chosen corridor is expected to avoid redundancy with existing rapid transit services. It is assumed that the
likelihood of service cannibalization is related to the distance to a competing service. For the corridors under
consideration, the nearest competing CTA rapid transit service is the parallel Red Line service. Distance from the
Red Line is therefore an appropriate measure of the likelihood of service cannibalization. However, there is also
competing Metra commuter rail service near the corridors, and it is possible that Metra customers may be less likely
to consider a CTA service, as they already enjoy a rapid transit-style service with stops approximately half a mile
apart. The distance to the nearest parallel Metra service, then, may also be considered an appropriate measure of the
possibility of service competition.

DATA AND DATA COLLECTION
Once measures for the criteria were defined, data could be collected. A field survey of the corridors determined the
number of lanes in each direction along the length of each corridor. CTA provided schedules and ridership reports,
and the agency’s map was used to determine the distance to competing services.
Eric Holeman                                                                                                  5


Schedule Data
Schedule data were used to calculate the average current travel speed, providing a measure of the capacity of ability
of buses to quickly move through the corridors. For each bus route along each of the corridors, recent published
CTA schedules were consulted to determine average speed along the corridor during AM rush hours for inbound
service and during PM rush hours for outbound services. While buses do not always travel according to their
schedules, it was assumed that the published schedules provide an approximation of the travel time, if not an exact
measure.

Ridership Data
Current ridership counts provide a measure of the corridor’s support of the current bus service, a measure that is
used as a proxy for potential BRT ridership. CTA’s ridership data provides the number of passenger boardings per
weekday per route. This provides a crude measure of the route patronage; however, it should be noted that the
ridership figures are not available for time of day. Further, only boarding counts for the entire length of each route
could be obtained, though it would have been preferable to isolate boardings that occurred within the area of
interest. The ridership counts for all the services in each corridor were combined, including both local and express
services.

Corridor Data
The width of each corridor was determined by a field survey. Each of the four corridors was traveled along its entire
length, from 63rd Street to 103rd Street. For each half mile (i.e., four numbered streets) the number of lanes in each
direction was noted at the midpoint. Each corridor runs for five miles through the area of interest, so a total of ten
measurements were made. From these ten measurements, the average width of each corridor was computed. Only
one corridor, Jeffery Boulevard, was of uniform width along the entire five miles. Parking lanes and turning lanes
were not included in the lane measurements.

Competitive Service (“Cannibalization”) Data
Data measuring the distance between the proposed alternatives and competing CTA and Metra commuter rail
service were taken from the CTA’s route map. For CTA service, the only competing service is the Red Line rail
service between 63rd and 95th Streets. The nearest Metra service to all corridors is the Metra Electric main branch
service. The distance between the candidate corridor and the potentially competing rail corridor was measured along
the connecting east-west street at the location of the rail station, and averaged out over the length of the competing
corridors.

DATA ANALYSIS
Five measures are available for the analysis, representing the various criteria. The raw data for each of the measures
for the four candidate corridors is shown in Tables I and II. A summary of the associations of measures with criteria
is shown in Table III.

To compare the alternatives across different measures, the measures must be are normalized to values between 0 and
1, as shown in Table IV. A graphic illustration of how the normalized measures of the corridors compare is shown in
Figure 2. Examining the relative values of the measures among the alternatives, no one alternative emerges as truly
superior or inferior to all others, however, the King Drive alternative emerges as inferior in all measures but one: the
separation from the Metra corridor.

Selecting Weightings for Corridor Comparison
To compare the various alternatives, a relative percentage weight is assigned to each measure, with the criteria
weights summing to 100%. For the initial analysis, three weightings are applied. Each of these initial weightings
assumes that one of the outcomes is of primary importance, and that the other two are of equal secondary
importance. For computational simplicity, the total weighting of the measurements of the primary criterion is set at
Eric Holeman                                                                                                      6


60%, and the secondary criteria weightings are set to 20% each. The initial weightings of each measurement under
these scenarios are shown in Table V.
          Some assumptions must be made within these basic weightings. As the measurement of current service
speed is considered a measure of both potential ridership increase and improved travel time, it is “double” weighted
in all scenarios, assigned a weight that allows for its significance to both of these criteria. In addition, the criterion of
avoiding conflict with existing corridors has two measures, one relating to competing CTA service and another
relating to competing Metra service. The importance of avoiding conflicting CTA service is arbitrarily assumed to
be three times more important than avoiding conflicting Metra service. A greater assumption is made in the
derivation of the weightings. Ideally, the process of deriving weightings would involve interested stakeholders the
agency and from the community. For the sake of expedience in this study, arbitrary weightings are used.
          In the scenario emphasizing ridership improvement, the current ridership is weighted at 30%, for one half
of the needed 60% weighting. Service speed is weighted at 30% toward improving ridership, completing the needed
60% emphasis on that criterion, but it is also weighted another 10%, to account for its importance as half of the
measurement of the criterion of improving travel time. The number of lanes is weighted 10%, as the other half of
this criterion measurement. The 20% weight for avoiding service redundancy is split at 15% for the CTA
measurement and 5% for the Metra measurement, per the 3:1 ratio already assumed. Figure 3 provides a graphic
summary of the weight assignments of this scenario.

Assignment of Weights to Scaled Measures and Ranking of Alternatives
For each scenario, the various weights are then assigned to the scaled measures. The resulting scores are then
summed, and the alternatives can then be ranked according to how they score under that particular weighting
scenario.
Ridership Emphasis Scenario
Using the weights for the increased ridership emphasis scenario yields the results shown in Table VI. The ridership-
emphasis scenario, which places a heavy emphasis on the measures of current ridership and current speed,
unsurprisingly favors the Jeffery and Cottage Grove corridors, each of which score high in both measurements.
Interestingly, although the current ridership measurement for the Stony Island corridor is much lower than that of
King Drive, the heavy weighting on travel time makes the two corridors almost equally preferred under this
scenario.
Travel Time Improvement Emphasis Scenario
Under the travel time improvement scenario, the weights fall heavily on the measures of corridor speed and number
of lanes. Existing ridership receives only a 10% weight in this scenario. Unsurprisingly, the Stony Island corridor,
with its high number of lanes and correspondingly high travel times emerges as the preferred alternative. However,
the Cottage Grove corridor actually posts a higher score under corridor speed, and outweighs Stony Island by a
factor of two in the discounted measure of existing ridership. A summary of the results of the travel time emphasis
scenario is shown in Table VII.
Corridor Conflict Avoidance Scenario
The final initial scenario explores the results of a weighting scheme that emphasizes avoidance of competition with
existing service. The greatest emphasis, a 45% weight, is placed on avoiding CTA service duplication. Lesser
emphasis (15%) is placed on avoiding Metra service duplication.
          The results of the competition avoidance scenario are found in Table VIII, and as might be predicted, the
total scores are proportionate to the distance from the CTA Red Line corridor. The lowest scores are found in the
King Drive corridor, which runs a scant half-mile from the Red Line, and along Cottage Grove, a full mile from the
Red Line but bordering a Metra line for much of its length. Interestingly, the Jeffery corridor, which features a high
level of service and the second-highest ridership of all the corridors, scores best in this scenario. This finding is
consistent with CTA policy of avoiding duplicating service where possible.
Eric Holeman                                                                                                  7


Summary of All Weighting Results
The different weighting scenarios place a high emphasis on a few measures, with very predictable results. In each
scenario, one measure is typically weighted at 40%, with two measures accounting for up to 70% of the total weight,
resulting in a very coarse identification of the category leaders for each criterion. A summary of initial results can be
found in Table IX.
         The low ranking for King Drive in all scenarios is consistent with the initial observation that this corridor
may constitute an inferior solution. In the raw measure values, it was outranked by Cottage Grove in all measures
except for distance from Metra, a value that has not been weighted heavily in any scenario.

          Among the higher scoring corridors, few emerge as choices without compromise. The Jeffery corridor
leads in two scenarios, confirming its status as the current leader in ridership and competition avoidance, but doesn’t
show up particularly well in travel time improvement potential. Moreover, its width of only one lane through the
length of the corridor would make it an unattractive candidate for BRT service. The Stony Island corridor scored the
highest in the travel time improvement scenario, yet its low current ridership would tend to suggest that the same
factors that make its buses move quickly—fast travel times and high number of lanes--also make it an unattractive
destination for bus riders.

          An interesting result is noted in the second-place scoring. Cottage Grove, the second ranking finisher in the
travel time and ridership improvement scenarios, emerges as unattractive only under the service conflict avoidance
scenario. However, its current ridership score—highest of all corridors—shows that the corridor is already attractive
to bus riders.


CONCLUSIONS
Applying the concordance analysis methodology is a straightforward process, yet it necessitates a number of
assumptions. Most of these assumptions result from the difficulty in obtaining needed information. The limited
scope of the study further necessitates assumptions. However, as these assumptions may be addressed by obtaining
more complete data and including it in the study, they do not detract from the usefulness of the method.

The four generalized criteria are likely sufficient for evaluating corridors from the agency’s perspective, which is
consistent with the scope of this study. It is assumed that other factors, such as residents’ concern regarding impacts
resulting from the implementation of BRT service, would necessarily be addressed in a different study.

While the results of this study should be considered in light of the data used, these concerns involve only the data
used, and not the method used to analyze the data. The concordance analysis method has previously shown to be
useful in selecting among transportation alternatives. Given a wider variety of more specific data inputs, the method
can be readily adapted to the question of BRT corridor selection.


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Financial assistance for the study was provided through the “Making CTA More Competitive as it Moves into the
21st Century” program, subcontracted through the Great Cities Urban Data Visualization Program and the Urban
Transportation Center of the University of Illinois at Chicago, and through URS Corporation and the Chicago
Transit Authority.


REFERENCES

1.   Giuliano, Genevieve. “A Multicriteria Method for Transportation Investment Planning.” Transportation
     Research, vol. 19A, no. 1, February 1985, pp 29-41.
2.   Hastak, Makarand and Maher M. Abu-Mallouh. “MSRP: Model for Station Rehabilitation Planning.” Journal
     of Infrastructure Systems, vol. 127, no. 2, June 2001, pp. 58-66.
Eric Holeman                                                                                         8




                                 Table I: Selected Attributes of Corridors

                                                                         Distance to   Distance to
                                                                           nearest      nearest
                                                            Mean          CTA rail       Metra
                                             Daily        Number of        service      service
          Corridor                         Boardings        Lanes          (miles)      (miles)
          Cottage Grove Avenue              28,848           1.10           0.52           .82
          Jeffery Boulevard                 27,961           1.70           1.02           .32
          Martin Luther King Drive          22,066           3.20           2.02           .82
          Stony Island Avenue               12,147           1.00           2.52          1.32
Eric Holeman                                                                                    9




                    Table II: Average Current Bus Travel Speeds in Candidate Corridors


                                    AM Peak Travel Speed      PM Peak Travel     Mean Peak Travel
                                          (mph)                Speed (mph)            Speed
                 Corridor               Northbound             Southbound             (mph)
     Martin Luther King Drive              10.9                   10.0                 10.5
     Cottage Grove Avenue                  10.4                   12.0                 11.2
     Stony Island Avenue                   10.0                    7.5                  8.8
     Jeffery Boulevard                     10.0                    8.6                  9.3
Eric Holeman                                                                                            10




                                Table III: Summary of Criteria and Respective Measures

                                                                          Criteria
                                                    Increased   Shorter travel Maximize distance from
                                                    ridership       time           existing service
                  Current ridership                     X
        Measure




                  Current service speed                 X            X
                  Number of lanes                                    X
                  Distance from Red Line                                                 X
                  Distance from Metra Lines                                              X
Eric Holeman                                                                                    11




                                Table IV: Summary of Normalized Measures

                                                                              Mean
                                                                           Distance to      Mean
                                              Speed      Mean Number        CTA rail      Distance to
                                             Through       of Lanes          service     Metra service
            Corridor           Ridership     Corridor   (each direction)     (miles)       (miles)
    Martin Luther King Drive     0.76          0.93          0.34             0.21           0.62

    Cottage Grove Avenue         1.00          1.00          0.53             0.41           0.24

    Stony Island Avenue          0.42          0.83          1.00             0.80           0.62

    Jeffery Boulevard            0.97          0.78          0.31             1.00           1.00
Eric Holeman                                                                                               12




                             Table V: Summary of Measurement Weights Under Initial Weighting Scenarios

                                                                     Measurement
                                                       Current
                                           Current     service     Number      Distance from   Distance from
                                           ridership    speed      of lanes      Red Line       Metra Lines
                        Increasing
   Weighting Scenario




                        ridership             30%        40%         10%           15%              5%
       Emphasis




                        Travel Time
                                              10%       40%         30%            15%              5%
                        improvement
                        Avoiding
                        competition with      10%        20%         10%           45%              15%
                        existing service
Eric Holeman                                                                                       13




                          Table VI: Analysis Results, Ridership Emphasis Scenario


                                          Corridor                         Distance
                              Ridership   Speed      Number of Distance to to Metra
          Corridor            (30%)       (40%)      Lanes (10%) CTA (15%) (5%)     Sums
          Martin Luther
                                  0.23       0.37        0.03         0.03          0.03   0.699
          King Drive
          Cottage Grove
                                  0.30       0.40        0.05         0.06          0.01   0.826
          Avenue
          Stony Island
                                  0.13       0.33        0.10         0.12          0.03   0.709
          Avenue
          Jeffery Boulevard       0.29       0.31        0.03         0.15          0.05   0.834
Eric Holeman                                                                               14




                        Table VII: Analysis Results, Travel Time Emphasis Scenario


                    Ridership   Corridor Speed Number of Distance to CTA Distance to
      Corridor       (10%)          (40%)     Lanes (30%)     (15%)      Metra (5%)     Sums
Martin Luther
                      0.08          0.37          0.10           0.03            0.03   0.615
King Drive
Cottage Grove
                      0.10          0.40          0.16           0.06            0.01   0.732
Avenue
Stony Island
                      0.04          0.33          0.30           0.12            0.03   0.825
Avenue
Jeffery Boulevard     0.10          0.31          0.09           0.15            0.05   0.703
Eric Holeman                                                                                  15




                     Table VIII: Analysis Results, Service Conflict Avoidance Scenario


                    Ridership   Corridor Speed Number of       Distance to    Distance to
      Corridor       (10%)          (20%)      Lanes (10%)     CTA (45%)      Metra (15%)   Sums
Martin Luther
                      0.08           0.19           0.03           0.09           0.09      0.484
King Drive
Cottage Grove
                      0.10           0.20           0.05           0.18           0.04      0.572
Avenue
Stony Island
                      0.04           0.17           0.10           0.36           0.09      0.762
Avenue
Jeffery Boulevard     0.10           0.16           0.03           0.45           0.15      0.884
Eric Holeman                                                                                      16




                 Table IX: Summary of Overall Rankings under Initial Weighting Scenarios

                               Highest Score            Second Highest Score        Lowest Score
          Increasing
                                  Jeffery                   Cottage Grove            King Drive
          Ridership
         Travel Time
                                Stony Island               Cottage Grove             King Drive
        Improvement
           Avoiding
       Competition with           Jeffery                    Stony Island            King Drive
       Existing Service
Eric Holeman                                                 17




               Figure 1: Map of Corridors and Rail Service
Eric Holeman                                                                                                     18




                                                      Figure 2: Graphic Summary of Normalized Data



                                   100%
                                                                                                     Martin Luther
                                                                                                     King Drive

                                                                                                     Cottage Grove
        Percent of Maximum Value




                                                                                                     Avenue

                                   50%                                                               Stony Island
                                                                                                     Avenue

                                                                                                     Jeffery
                                                                                                     Boulevard


                                    0%
                                          Ridership    Speed     Mean    Distance Distance
                                                                Number to CTA to Metra
                                                                of Lanes  Rail
Eric Holeman                                                                                19




                    Figure 3: Weights for Ridership Improvement Emphasis Scenario




           Current Speed               Current Speed
                                             Number of
                                              Lanes                 Improving Ridership


                                                                    Improving Travel Time
                                               Distance from
                                                   CTA
                                                                    Avoiding Competing
                                          Distance from             Service
                  Current
                                              Metra
                 Ridership

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Selecting Corridors for BRD Service

  • 1. Selecting Corridors for Bus Rapid Transit Using a Multicriteria Method Eric Holeman Chicago Transit Authority 120 N. Racine Avenue Chicago IL 60607 Tel. (312) 733-7000 Fax (312) 432-7127 Email: ehol@xmission.com
  • 2. Eric Holeman 2 ABSTRACT Many bus rapid transit (BRT) projects result from the availability of a single vacant corridor, such as an abandoned rail right of way. Deciding where to implement BRT service in an existing transit network, in the absence of an obvious corridor, is a more difficult question. Various factors, such as the potential rider density, possible travel speed, and distance from other rapid transit corridors all weigh into the mix. Often the objectives tend to be mutually exclusive: a corridor that can provide fast travel times may offer few potential riders, while the corridor that provides the most riders may be along a traffic-clogged arterial. Where no one corridor is perfect, the best choice is necessarily a compromise between varied and often conflicting objectives. Because of the conflicting objectives, a multicriteria method was chosen to address the question of identifying potential BRT corridors. Four alternatives were compared across a number of different criteria. The concordance analysis method was chosen because of its usefulness in evaluating alternatives where the differences are both measurable and scalable. By placing different weights on the various objectives, the concordance analysis method show method does not result in the selection of one superior alternative, but instead shows how alternatives compare, given a particular set of priorities. Conversely, by showing how weighted alternatives rank, the method reveals the priorities involved in the choice of a given alternative. The results point strongly to an alternative that was eventually chosen by the transit agency for a limited-stop BRT-type service.
  • 3. Eric Holeman 3 INTRODUCTION The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) has encouraged bus rapid transit (BRT) as a way to develop new rapid transit projects at a low up-front cost. A number have of these projects have been undertaken by U.S. transit agencies. Many of those have typically taken advantage of the availability of a single corridor, such as Pittsburgh’s use of an old rail right of way, or Seattle’s use of high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes along an Interstate highway corridor. Such corridors offer an obvious advantage in their ready availability. However, for an established urban transit system that wishes to overlay BRT services on an existing network, the question of how to select the corridor to upgrade becomes important. The goals of a BRT corridor typically involve providing a fast ride for a large number of passengers, yet often the most densely populated transit corridors are those that provide the slowest bus movement. Conversely, corridors that offer quick vehicle movement are often found in areas of automobile-oriented development that aren’t likely to provide the number of riders needed to sustain a BRT service. This paper shows how a transit agency can identify and select bus rapid transit corridors using a multicriteria analysis method. The study compares a number of candidate corridors in an area of interest using various criteria appropriate to the agency’s objectives in implementing a BRT service. Any corridor that is clearly superior to all others may be identified as such. When no corridor is superior in all criteria, the corridors may be compared using different criteria weightings reflecting different prioritizations of the importance of the various objectives. DESCRIPTION OF CORRIDORS Four corridors were considered for evaluation in the part of Chicago's South Side, between the Dan Ryan expressway and Lake Michigan. The area of interest of the corridors extends for five miles, between 63rd Street to the north and 103rd street to the south. Corridors evaluated were limited to those north-south corridors with existing bus service. The corridors are described below and listed with a summary of their attributes in Table I. A map of the corridors is provided in Figure 1. Each of the four corridors presents varying degrees of acceptability for BRT service. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, though a broad boulevard for much of its length, narrows to two lanes through much of the area of interest. Cottage Grove Avenue, a somewhat more commercially oriented corridor than King Drive, provides two traffic lanes in each direction for most of its length. Stony Island Avenue, a broad auto-oriented thoroughfare, provides barrier-separated multiple lanes for both north and southbound traffic. Like Cottage Grove, it is commercially oriented; though being much wider, it has fewer residential buildings and minimal landscaping. Jeffery Boulevard is the narrowest of the corridors, containing a single lane in each direction for all of its length. Although a narrow corridor like Jeffery is not typically a candidate for BRT service, its high level of existing bus patronage merits its consideration in this study. METHOD The concordance analysis method, as described by Giuliano (1) allows for the comparison of alternatives with different, conflicting objectives. In applying the method, criteria are identified, and appropriate measures are determined for each of the criteria. Data are then collected for each measure of each alternative candidate. The alternatives can then be ranked according to one or more weightings of the measures. Consistently unattractive alternatives can be readily identified and discarded, while the more attractive alternatives may then be compared more directly. Unlike a traditional cost-benefit approach, the concordance analysis method does not allow for the maximization of a single outcome. Because of this, it is necessarily somewhat imprecise: several alternatives may emerge as viable, and the preferred alternative may end up being superior in no one single measure. Yet because the method enables the comparison of multiple favorable and unfavorable outcomes, the researcher may identify one or more alternatives that offer an acceptable combination of outcomes. The method is appropriate for the problem of transit corridor selection because each alternative presents an assortment of costs and benefits that aren’t easily scaled to dollar values.
  • 4. Eric Holeman 4 A number of studies have examined the usefulness of concordance analysis in addressing transportation issues. Giuliano provided a demonstration of the method that compared transportation improvement alternatives. Hastak and Abu-Mallouh (2) provided an example of using concordance analysis to prioritize transit station improvement projects. Both studies strongly suggest the usefulness of concordance analysis as a tool to evaluate transit corridors in situations where no single criterion is paramount—provided sufficient criteria to be optimized can be measured and scaled. Applying the Concordance Analysis Method to the problem BRT Corridor Selection Once the criteria for comparing BRT corridors are identified, they can be evaluated using available measures. It is assumed that the objectives of a transit operator, in implementing a BRT project include increasing patronage in the corridor, improving service quality, minimizing operating costs, and avoiding competition with existing routes. Increased Patronage For the desired outcome of increased patronage, it is assumed that a high-ridership corridor has some residual demand that may be served by providing BRT service. The capacity for patronage increase is therefore assumed to be greatest in corridors that already have high ridership, and the current ridership in the corridor is assumed to be a useful measurement of that potential. It is further assumed that customers prefer faster buses and are more likely to patronize a faster service. Because a service that operates in relatively uncongested conditions is more likely to benefit from BRT conversion than a service that is operating in crowded streets, the current operating speed of the bus will be used as a measure of the corridor’s ability to attract increased ridership. Improved Service Quality/Reduced Operating Cost The outcome of improved service quality is somewhat harder to define, and not all aspects of it are necessarily related to the corridors in which the service runs. However, it will be assumed that for purposes of selecting a corridor that faster is better. For the transit agency, operating costs are directly related to operating speed—faster buses mean lower costs. The measures of potential service improvement are also applicable to the objective of minimizing operating cost, and will hereafter be treated as the same criterion. The current operating speed of the existing bus service in a corridor, already identified as a measure for the potential of increased patronage, will also serve as a measure of potential for improved service quality and reduced operating cost. The possibility of improving service further by adding lane restrictions is also considered, with the assumption that such a service improvement is more possible if there are more lanes available. Therefore, the number of traffic lanes in the corridor will provide another measures relating to service quality improvement. Avoiding Competition with Existing Service The chosen corridor is expected to avoid redundancy with existing rapid transit services. It is assumed that the likelihood of service cannibalization is related to the distance to a competing service. For the corridors under consideration, the nearest competing CTA rapid transit service is the parallel Red Line service. Distance from the Red Line is therefore an appropriate measure of the likelihood of service cannibalization. However, there is also competing Metra commuter rail service near the corridors, and it is possible that Metra customers may be less likely to consider a CTA service, as they already enjoy a rapid transit-style service with stops approximately half a mile apart. The distance to the nearest parallel Metra service, then, may also be considered an appropriate measure of the possibility of service competition. DATA AND DATA COLLECTION Once measures for the criteria were defined, data could be collected. A field survey of the corridors determined the number of lanes in each direction along the length of each corridor. CTA provided schedules and ridership reports, and the agency’s map was used to determine the distance to competing services.
  • 5. Eric Holeman 5 Schedule Data Schedule data were used to calculate the average current travel speed, providing a measure of the capacity of ability of buses to quickly move through the corridors. For each bus route along each of the corridors, recent published CTA schedules were consulted to determine average speed along the corridor during AM rush hours for inbound service and during PM rush hours for outbound services. While buses do not always travel according to their schedules, it was assumed that the published schedules provide an approximation of the travel time, if not an exact measure. Ridership Data Current ridership counts provide a measure of the corridor’s support of the current bus service, a measure that is used as a proxy for potential BRT ridership. CTA’s ridership data provides the number of passenger boardings per weekday per route. This provides a crude measure of the route patronage; however, it should be noted that the ridership figures are not available for time of day. Further, only boarding counts for the entire length of each route could be obtained, though it would have been preferable to isolate boardings that occurred within the area of interest. The ridership counts for all the services in each corridor were combined, including both local and express services. Corridor Data The width of each corridor was determined by a field survey. Each of the four corridors was traveled along its entire length, from 63rd Street to 103rd Street. For each half mile (i.e., four numbered streets) the number of lanes in each direction was noted at the midpoint. Each corridor runs for five miles through the area of interest, so a total of ten measurements were made. From these ten measurements, the average width of each corridor was computed. Only one corridor, Jeffery Boulevard, was of uniform width along the entire five miles. Parking lanes and turning lanes were not included in the lane measurements. Competitive Service (“Cannibalization”) Data Data measuring the distance between the proposed alternatives and competing CTA and Metra commuter rail service were taken from the CTA’s route map. For CTA service, the only competing service is the Red Line rail service between 63rd and 95th Streets. The nearest Metra service to all corridors is the Metra Electric main branch service. The distance between the candidate corridor and the potentially competing rail corridor was measured along the connecting east-west street at the location of the rail station, and averaged out over the length of the competing corridors. DATA ANALYSIS Five measures are available for the analysis, representing the various criteria. The raw data for each of the measures for the four candidate corridors is shown in Tables I and II. A summary of the associations of measures with criteria is shown in Table III. To compare the alternatives across different measures, the measures must be are normalized to values between 0 and 1, as shown in Table IV. A graphic illustration of how the normalized measures of the corridors compare is shown in Figure 2. Examining the relative values of the measures among the alternatives, no one alternative emerges as truly superior or inferior to all others, however, the King Drive alternative emerges as inferior in all measures but one: the separation from the Metra corridor. Selecting Weightings for Corridor Comparison To compare the various alternatives, a relative percentage weight is assigned to each measure, with the criteria weights summing to 100%. For the initial analysis, three weightings are applied. Each of these initial weightings assumes that one of the outcomes is of primary importance, and that the other two are of equal secondary importance. For computational simplicity, the total weighting of the measurements of the primary criterion is set at
  • 6. Eric Holeman 6 60%, and the secondary criteria weightings are set to 20% each. The initial weightings of each measurement under these scenarios are shown in Table V. Some assumptions must be made within these basic weightings. As the measurement of current service speed is considered a measure of both potential ridership increase and improved travel time, it is “double” weighted in all scenarios, assigned a weight that allows for its significance to both of these criteria. In addition, the criterion of avoiding conflict with existing corridors has two measures, one relating to competing CTA service and another relating to competing Metra service. The importance of avoiding conflicting CTA service is arbitrarily assumed to be three times more important than avoiding conflicting Metra service. A greater assumption is made in the derivation of the weightings. Ideally, the process of deriving weightings would involve interested stakeholders the agency and from the community. For the sake of expedience in this study, arbitrary weightings are used. In the scenario emphasizing ridership improvement, the current ridership is weighted at 30%, for one half of the needed 60% weighting. Service speed is weighted at 30% toward improving ridership, completing the needed 60% emphasis on that criterion, but it is also weighted another 10%, to account for its importance as half of the measurement of the criterion of improving travel time. The number of lanes is weighted 10%, as the other half of this criterion measurement. The 20% weight for avoiding service redundancy is split at 15% for the CTA measurement and 5% for the Metra measurement, per the 3:1 ratio already assumed. Figure 3 provides a graphic summary of the weight assignments of this scenario. Assignment of Weights to Scaled Measures and Ranking of Alternatives For each scenario, the various weights are then assigned to the scaled measures. The resulting scores are then summed, and the alternatives can then be ranked according to how they score under that particular weighting scenario. Ridership Emphasis Scenario Using the weights for the increased ridership emphasis scenario yields the results shown in Table VI. The ridership- emphasis scenario, which places a heavy emphasis on the measures of current ridership and current speed, unsurprisingly favors the Jeffery and Cottage Grove corridors, each of which score high in both measurements. Interestingly, although the current ridership measurement for the Stony Island corridor is much lower than that of King Drive, the heavy weighting on travel time makes the two corridors almost equally preferred under this scenario. Travel Time Improvement Emphasis Scenario Under the travel time improvement scenario, the weights fall heavily on the measures of corridor speed and number of lanes. Existing ridership receives only a 10% weight in this scenario. Unsurprisingly, the Stony Island corridor, with its high number of lanes and correspondingly high travel times emerges as the preferred alternative. However, the Cottage Grove corridor actually posts a higher score under corridor speed, and outweighs Stony Island by a factor of two in the discounted measure of existing ridership. A summary of the results of the travel time emphasis scenario is shown in Table VII. Corridor Conflict Avoidance Scenario The final initial scenario explores the results of a weighting scheme that emphasizes avoidance of competition with existing service. The greatest emphasis, a 45% weight, is placed on avoiding CTA service duplication. Lesser emphasis (15%) is placed on avoiding Metra service duplication. The results of the competition avoidance scenario are found in Table VIII, and as might be predicted, the total scores are proportionate to the distance from the CTA Red Line corridor. The lowest scores are found in the King Drive corridor, which runs a scant half-mile from the Red Line, and along Cottage Grove, a full mile from the Red Line but bordering a Metra line for much of its length. Interestingly, the Jeffery corridor, which features a high level of service and the second-highest ridership of all the corridors, scores best in this scenario. This finding is consistent with CTA policy of avoiding duplicating service where possible.
  • 7. Eric Holeman 7 Summary of All Weighting Results The different weighting scenarios place a high emphasis on a few measures, with very predictable results. In each scenario, one measure is typically weighted at 40%, with two measures accounting for up to 70% of the total weight, resulting in a very coarse identification of the category leaders for each criterion. A summary of initial results can be found in Table IX. The low ranking for King Drive in all scenarios is consistent with the initial observation that this corridor may constitute an inferior solution. In the raw measure values, it was outranked by Cottage Grove in all measures except for distance from Metra, a value that has not been weighted heavily in any scenario. Among the higher scoring corridors, few emerge as choices without compromise. The Jeffery corridor leads in two scenarios, confirming its status as the current leader in ridership and competition avoidance, but doesn’t show up particularly well in travel time improvement potential. Moreover, its width of only one lane through the length of the corridor would make it an unattractive candidate for BRT service. The Stony Island corridor scored the highest in the travel time improvement scenario, yet its low current ridership would tend to suggest that the same factors that make its buses move quickly—fast travel times and high number of lanes--also make it an unattractive destination for bus riders. An interesting result is noted in the second-place scoring. Cottage Grove, the second ranking finisher in the travel time and ridership improvement scenarios, emerges as unattractive only under the service conflict avoidance scenario. However, its current ridership score—highest of all corridors—shows that the corridor is already attractive to bus riders. CONCLUSIONS Applying the concordance analysis methodology is a straightforward process, yet it necessitates a number of assumptions. Most of these assumptions result from the difficulty in obtaining needed information. The limited scope of the study further necessitates assumptions. However, as these assumptions may be addressed by obtaining more complete data and including it in the study, they do not detract from the usefulness of the method. The four generalized criteria are likely sufficient for evaluating corridors from the agency’s perspective, which is consistent with the scope of this study. It is assumed that other factors, such as residents’ concern regarding impacts resulting from the implementation of BRT service, would necessarily be addressed in a different study. While the results of this study should be considered in light of the data used, these concerns involve only the data used, and not the method used to analyze the data. The concordance analysis method has previously shown to be useful in selecting among transportation alternatives. Given a wider variety of more specific data inputs, the method can be readily adapted to the question of BRT corridor selection. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Financial assistance for the study was provided through the “Making CTA More Competitive as it Moves into the 21st Century” program, subcontracted through the Great Cities Urban Data Visualization Program and the Urban Transportation Center of the University of Illinois at Chicago, and through URS Corporation and the Chicago Transit Authority. REFERENCES 1. Giuliano, Genevieve. “A Multicriteria Method for Transportation Investment Planning.” Transportation Research, vol. 19A, no. 1, February 1985, pp 29-41. 2. Hastak, Makarand and Maher M. Abu-Mallouh. “MSRP: Model for Station Rehabilitation Planning.” Journal of Infrastructure Systems, vol. 127, no. 2, June 2001, pp. 58-66.
  • 8. Eric Holeman 8 Table I: Selected Attributes of Corridors Distance to Distance to nearest nearest Mean CTA rail Metra Daily Number of service service Corridor Boardings Lanes (miles) (miles) Cottage Grove Avenue 28,848 1.10 0.52 .82 Jeffery Boulevard 27,961 1.70 1.02 .32 Martin Luther King Drive 22,066 3.20 2.02 .82 Stony Island Avenue 12,147 1.00 2.52 1.32
  • 9. Eric Holeman 9 Table II: Average Current Bus Travel Speeds in Candidate Corridors AM Peak Travel Speed PM Peak Travel Mean Peak Travel (mph) Speed (mph) Speed Corridor Northbound Southbound (mph) Martin Luther King Drive 10.9 10.0 10.5 Cottage Grove Avenue 10.4 12.0 11.2 Stony Island Avenue 10.0 7.5 8.8 Jeffery Boulevard 10.0 8.6 9.3
  • 10. Eric Holeman 10 Table III: Summary of Criteria and Respective Measures Criteria Increased Shorter travel Maximize distance from ridership time existing service Current ridership X Measure Current service speed X X Number of lanes X Distance from Red Line X Distance from Metra Lines X
  • 11. Eric Holeman 11 Table IV: Summary of Normalized Measures Mean Distance to Mean Speed Mean Number CTA rail Distance to Through of Lanes service Metra service Corridor Ridership Corridor (each direction) (miles) (miles) Martin Luther King Drive 0.76 0.93 0.34 0.21 0.62 Cottage Grove Avenue 1.00 1.00 0.53 0.41 0.24 Stony Island Avenue 0.42 0.83 1.00 0.80 0.62 Jeffery Boulevard 0.97 0.78 0.31 1.00 1.00
  • 12. Eric Holeman 12 Table V: Summary of Measurement Weights Under Initial Weighting Scenarios Measurement Current Current service Number Distance from Distance from ridership speed of lanes Red Line Metra Lines Increasing Weighting Scenario ridership 30% 40% 10% 15% 5% Emphasis Travel Time 10% 40% 30% 15% 5% improvement Avoiding competition with 10% 20% 10% 45% 15% existing service
  • 13. Eric Holeman 13 Table VI: Analysis Results, Ridership Emphasis Scenario Corridor Distance Ridership Speed Number of Distance to to Metra Corridor (30%) (40%) Lanes (10%) CTA (15%) (5%) Sums Martin Luther 0.23 0.37 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.699 King Drive Cottage Grove 0.30 0.40 0.05 0.06 0.01 0.826 Avenue Stony Island 0.13 0.33 0.10 0.12 0.03 0.709 Avenue Jeffery Boulevard 0.29 0.31 0.03 0.15 0.05 0.834
  • 14. Eric Holeman 14 Table VII: Analysis Results, Travel Time Emphasis Scenario Ridership Corridor Speed Number of Distance to CTA Distance to Corridor (10%) (40%) Lanes (30%) (15%) Metra (5%) Sums Martin Luther 0.08 0.37 0.10 0.03 0.03 0.615 King Drive Cottage Grove 0.10 0.40 0.16 0.06 0.01 0.732 Avenue Stony Island 0.04 0.33 0.30 0.12 0.03 0.825 Avenue Jeffery Boulevard 0.10 0.31 0.09 0.15 0.05 0.703
  • 15. Eric Holeman 15 Table VIII: Analysis Results, Service Conflict Avoidance Scenario Ridership Corridor Speed Number of Distance to Distance to Corridor (10%) (20%) Lanes (10%) CTA (45%) Metra (15%) Sums Martin Luther 0.08 0.19 0.03 0.09 0.09 0.484 King Drive Cottage Grove 0.10 0.20 0.05 0.18 0.04 0.572 Avenue Stony Island 0.04 0.17 0.10 0.36 0.09 0.762 Avenue Jeffery Boulevard 0.10 0.16 0.03 0.45 0.15 0.884
  • 16. Eric Holeman 16 Table IX: Summary of Overall Rankings under Initial Weighting Scenarios Highest Score Second Highest Score Lowest Score Increasing Jeffery Cottage Grove King Drive Ridership Travel Time Stony Island Cottage Grove King Drive Improvement Avoiding Competition with Jeffery Stony Island King Drive Existing Service
  • 17. Eric Holeman 17 Figure 1: Map of Corridors and Rail Service
  • 18. Eric Holeman 18 Figure 2: Graphic Summary of Normalized Data 100% Martin Luther King Drive Cottage Grove Percent of Maximum Value Avenue 50% Stony Island Avenue Jeffery Boulevard 0% Ridership Speed Mean Distance Distance Number to CTA to Metra of Lanes Rail
  • 19. Eric Holeman 19 Figure 3: Weights for Ridership Improvement Emphasis Scenario Current Speed Current Speed Number of Lanes Improving Ridership Improving Travel Time Distance from CTA Avoiding Competing Distance from Service Current Metra Ridership