SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Current Account Dynamics:
A SVAR Analysis When the
 Structural Shocks are not
        Orthogonal
 César R. Sobrino- Universidad del Turabo
        Email: sobrinoc1@suagm.edu
   Ellis Heath- Valdosta State University
        Email: ebheath@valdosta.edu
Motivation
• Using Canada and UK, Kano (2008)
  analyzes the Intertemporal Current
  Account Approach (ICA).
• For a small open economy:
    • Current account is independent of global
      shocks.
    • Current account responds positively to a
      positive country-specific temporary shock.
    • Current account does not respond to
      country-specific permanent shocks.
Motivation
• Three-variable SVAR with long run
  restrictions. Blanchard & Quah (1989).
• Ex-ante global real interest rate, net
  output growth and current account/net
  output.
• Permanent shocks to those series are
  the structural shocks.
• The variance-covariance matrix of
  structural shocks is the identity
  matrix.
Motivation
• Using a SVAR approach, his findings
  fit predictions
• But, there two puzzles:
  – Excessive response of the current
    account to country-specific transitory
    shock.
  – Country-specific transitory shocks
    dominate current account variations in
    the short and long run, but they do no
    play any role in net output growth
    fluctuations.
Motivation
• No correlation assumptions might be
  determining the Kano’s puzzles.
• Enders and Hurns (2007).
  – SVAR with long-run restrictions and
    structural shocks are correlated at
    leads.
  – Idiosyncratic shocks should be
    correlated due to fiscal and monetary
    policies.
Methodology

• Structural VAR
Methodology

• Variables
  – rt: ex ante global interest rate.
  – ∆lnNOt: Net output growth
  – CA/NOt: either current account over net
    output growth
VAR in reduced form



• Matrix of observed residuals
In this setup

• 9 unknowns:
  – three elements of B(0)
  – The variances of the structural shocks
  – The covariances of structural shocks
• 7 equations
  – 6 elements of variance-covariance
    matrix of observed residuals.
  – A long run restriction:
In this setup

• Just identified system ,assuming no
  correlation between the global shock
  and idiosyncratic shocks.
• Then, idiosyncratic shocks are
  correlated at leads.
• Two schemes
Scheme I
Scheme II
Data

• IMF, quarterly 1971:1-2006:2 for Canada and
  UK
  – The ex-ante global interest rate is a weighted
    average of the ex-ante real interest rate minus the
    forecasted inflation in the G7 countries.
  – The net output is the real GDP minus investment
    minus government expenses minus stock variation.
  – The current account is the real GNP minus
    consumption minus investment minus government
    expenses minus stock variation
ADF Test
Variances and correlations coefficients
Scheme I - Forecast-error variance
decomposition
Scheme II - Forecast-error variance
decomposition
Scheme I – Canada: Impulse-response
functions
Scheme I – UK: Impulse-response
functions
Scheme II – Canada: Impulse-response
functions
Scheme II – UK: Impulse-response
functions

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

Presentation coidine 2012 cesar sobrino
Presentation coidine 2012 cesar sobrinoPresentation coidine 2012 cesar sobrino
Presentation coidine 2012 cesar sobrinoCésar Sobrino
 
Votre page Facebook en 2016
Votre page Facebook en 2016 Votre page Facebook en 2016
Votre page Facebook en 2016
Valérie Demont (-Steck)
 
Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010ljavor
 
John paul stevenson cv dec 2010 public verison
John paul stevenson cv dec 2010 public verisonJohn paul stevenson cv dec 2010 public verison
John paul stevenson cv dec 2010 public verisonJP54AMS
 
Секреты успешных украинских компаний в Интернете
Секреты успешных украинских компаний в ИнтернетеСекреты успешных украинских компаний в Интернете
Секреты успешных украинских компаний в Интернете
Fedotov Alex
 
Fpyc Personal Career Profile For Moinul Huq
Fpyc Personal Career Profile For Moinul HuqFpyc Personal Career Profile For Moinul Huq
Fpyc Personal Career Profile For Moinul Huq
George Liston
 
JUST NEED RETAIL PVT LTD
JUST NEED RETAIL PVT LTDJUST NEED RETAIL PVT LTD
JUST NEED RETAIL PVT LTD
Gaurav Jurel
 
Votre page Facebook en 2016
Votre page Facebook en 2016 Votre page Facebook en 2016
Votre page Facebook en 2016
Valérie Demont (-Steck)
 
Александр Федотов : комплексное продвижение сайтов в Интернет
Александр Федотов : комплексное продвижение сайтов в ИнтернетАлександр Федотов : комплексное продвижение сайтов в Интернет
Александр Федотов : комплексное продвижение сайтов в Интернет
Fedotov Alex
 
Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010ljavor
 
Доверительный маркетинг (8p) Александр Федотов
Доверительный маркетинг (8p) Александр ФедотовДоверительный маркетинг (8p) Александр Федотов
Доверительный маркетинг (8p) Александр ФедотовFedotov Alex
 
Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010ljavor
 
Дублированный контент в SEO
Дублированный контент в SEOДублированный контент в SEO
Дублированный контент в SEO
Fedotov Alex
 
Жизненный цикл электронного магазина
Жизненный цикл электронного магазинаЖизненный цикл электронного магазина
Жизненный цикл электронного магазина
Fedotov Alex
 
Presentación babel planets and comet
Presentación babel planets and cometPresentación babel planets and comet
Presentación babel planets and comet
Jonathan Collins
 
Post click marketing
Post click marketingPost click marketing
Post click marketing
Fedotov Alex
 
Что должен делать ваш SEO оптимизатор
Что должен делать ваш SEO оптимизаторЧто должен делать ваш SEO оптимизатор
Что должен делать ваш SEO оптимизатор
Fedotov Alex
 
Доверительный маркетинг и репутация в онлайне
Доверительный маркетинг и репутация в онлайнеДоверительный маркетинг и репутация в онлайне
Доверительный маркетинг и репутация в онлайне
Fedotov Alex
 
Как стать №1 в своей нише?
Как стать №1 в своей нише?Как стать №1 в своей нише?
Как стать №1 в своей нише?
Fedotov Alex
 

Viewers also liked (19)

Presentation coidine 2012 cesar sobrino
Presentation coidine 2012 cesar sobrinoPresentation coidine 2012 cesar sobrino
Presentation coidine 2012 cesar sobrino
 
Votre page Facebook en 2016
Votre page Facebook en 2016 Votre page Facebook en 2016
Votre page Facebook en 2016
 
Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010
 
John paul stevenson cv dec 2010 public verison
John paul stevenson cv dec 2010 public verisonJohn paul stevenson cv dec 2010 public verison
John paul stevenson cv dec 2010 public verison
 
Секреты успешных украинских компаний в Интернете
Секреты успешных украинских компаний в ИнтернетеСекреты успешных украинских компаний в Интернете
Секреты успешных украинских компаний в Интернете
 
Fpyc Personal Career Profile For Moinul Huq
Fpyc Personal Career Profile For Moinul HuqFpyc Personal Career Profile For Moinul Huq
Fpyc Personal Career Profile For Moinul Huq
 
JUST NEED RETAIL PVT LTD
JUST NEED RETAIL PVT LTDJUST NEED RETAIL PVT LTD
JUST NEED RETAIL PVT LTD
 
Votre page Facebook en 2016
Votre page Facebook en 2016 Votre page Facebook en 2016
Votre page Facebook en 2016
 
Александр Федотов : комплексное продвижение сайтов в Интернет
Александр Федотов : комплексное продвижение сайтов в ИнтернетАлександр Федотов : комплексное продвижение сайтов в Интернет
Александр Федотов : комплексное продвижение сайтов в Интернет
 
Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010
 
Доверительный маркетинг (8p) Александр Федотов
Доверительный маркетинг (8p) Александр ФедотовДоверительный маркетинг (8p) Александр Федотов
Доверительный маркетинг (8p) Александр Федотов
 
Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010Psav.9.2010
Psav.9.2010
 
Дублированный контент в SEO
Дублированный контент в SEOДублированный контент в SEO
Дублированный контент в SEO
 
Жизненный цикл электронного магазина
Жизненный цикл электронного магазинаЖизненный цикл электронного магазина
Жизненный цикл электронного магазина
 
Presentación babel planets and comet
Presentación babel planets and cometPresentación babel planets and comet
Presentación babel planets and comet
 
Post click marketing
Post click marketingPost click marketing
Post click marketing
 
Что должен делать ваш SEO оптимизатор
Что должен делать ваш SEO оптимизаторЧто должен делать ваш SEO оптимизатор
Что должен делать ваш SEO оптимизатор
 
Доверительный маркетинг и репутация в онлайне
Доверительный маркетинг и репутация в онлайнеДоверительный маркетинг и репутация в онлайне
Доверительный маркетинг и репутация в онлайне
 
Как стать №1 в своей нише?
Как стать №1 в своей нише?Как стать №1 в своей нише?
Как стать №1 в своей нише?
 

Similar to Sea 2011

Key determinants of shadow banking
Key determinants of shadow bankingKey determinants of shadow banking
Key determinants of shadow banking
Alvaro Alvarez-Campana Rodriguez
 
Fiscal Performance, Fiscal Rules, and Country Size
Fiscal Performance, Fiscal Rules, and Country SizeFiscal Performance, Fiscal Rules, and Country Size
Fiscal Performance, Fiscal Rules, and Country Size
Economic Research Forum
 
2014.06.13 - NAEC EDRC Seminar_Macroprudential policy: Banks risk & Capital C...
2014.06.13 - NAEC EDRC Seminar_Macroprudential policy: Banks risk & Capital C...2014.06.13 - NAEC EDRC Seminar_Macroprudential policy: Banks risk & Capital C...
2014.06.13 - NAEC EDRC Seminar_Macroprudential policy: Banks risk & Capital C...OECD_NAEC
 
Stress Testing and the Impact that Over-Reliance on VaR as a risk metric in t...
Stress Testing and the Impact that Over-Reliance on VaR as a risk metric in t...Stress Testing and the Impact that Over-Reliance on VaR as a risk metric in t...
Stress Testing and the Impact that Over-Reliance on VaR as a risk metric in t...
Conor Cooney
 
House Price Expectations , Boom Bust Cycles and Implications for Monetary Policy
House Price Expectations , Boom Bust Cycles and Implications for Monetary PolicyHouse Price Expectations , Boom Bust Cycles and Implications for Monetary Policy
House Price Expectations , Boom Bust Cycles and Implications for Monetary Policy
Eesti Pank
 
Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal-policy Model: The Unit of Acc...
Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal-policy Model: The Unit of Acc...Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal-policy Model: The Unit of Acc...
Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal-policy Model: The Unit of Acc...
pkconference
 
Persistent Slowdowns, Expectations and Macroeconomic Policy
Persistent Slowdowns, Expectations and Macroeconomic PolicyPersistent Slowdowns, Expectations and Macroeconomic Policy
Persistent Slowdowns, Expectations and Macroeconomic Policy
Suomen Pankki
 
Data Quality in the Banking Industry: Turning Regulatory Compliance into Busi...
Data Quality in the Banking Industry: Turning Regulatory Compliance into Busi...Data Quality in the Banking Industry: Turning Regulatory Compliance into Busi...
Data Quality in the Banking Industry: Turning Regulatory Compliance into Busi...
Precisely
 
Dynamic Scoring at CBO
Dynamic Scoring at CBODynamic Scoring at CBO
Dynamic Scoring at CBO
Congressional Budget Office
 
The Impacts of CECL on Modeling and Risk Management
The Impacts of CECL on Modeling and Risk ManagementThe Impacts of CECL on Modeling and Risk Management
The Impacts of CECL on Modeling and Risk Management
Xiaoling (Sean) Yu Ph.D.
 
The evolution of central bank governance around the world.
The evolution of central bank governance around the world.   The evolution of central bank governance around the world.
The evolution of central bank governance around the world.
Vishwarath Reddy
 
Assessing Financial Sustainability of Indian Municipal Bodies
Assessing Financial Sustainability of Indian Municipal Bodies Assessing Financial Sustainability of Indian Municipal Bodies
Assessing Financial Sustainability of Indian Municipal Bodies
Ravikant Joshi
 
Final Time series analysis part 2. pptx
Final Time series analysis part 2.  pptxFinal Time series analysis part 2.  pptx
Final Time series analysis part 2. pptx
SHUBHAMMBA3
 
Ready for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework
Ready for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic frameworkReady for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework
Ready for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework
ResolutionFoundation
 
CECL Performance Assessment
CECL Performance AssessmentCECL Performance Assessment
CECL Performance Assessment
Xiaoling (Sean) Yu Ph.D.
 
Do States Circumvent Supermajority Voting Requirements to Raise Taxes?
Do States Circumvent Supermajority Voting Requirements to Raise Taxes?Do States Circumvent Supermajority Voting Requirements to Raise Taxes?
Do States Circumvent Supermajority Voting Requirements to Raise Taxes?
Soomi Lee
 
Fiscal Rules in the World Panel Data 5
Fiscal Rules in the World Panel Data 5Fiscal Rules in the World Panel Data 5
Fiscal Rules in the World Panel Data 5
Economic Research Forum
 
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Mark...
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Mark...Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Mark...
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Mark...
Congressional Budget Office
 
CBO’s Cost Estimates
CBO’s Cost EstimatesCBO’s Cost Estimates
CBO’s Cost Estimates
Congressional Budget Office
 

Similar to Sea 2011 (20)

Key determinants of shadow banking
Key determinants of shadow bankingKey determinants of shadow banking
Key determinants of shadow banking
 
Fiscal Performance, Fiscal Rules, and Country Size
Fiscal Performance, Fiscal Rules, and Country SizeFiscal Performance, Fiscal Rules, and Country Size
Fiscal Performance, Fiscal Rules, and Country Size
 
2014.06.13 - NAEC EDRC Seminar_Macroprudential policy: Banks risk & Capital C...
2014.06.13 - NAEC EDRC Seminar_Macroprudential policy: Banks risk & Capital C...2014.06.13 - NAEC EDRC Seminar_Macroprudential policy: Banks risk & Capital C...
2014.06.13 - NAEC EDRC Seminar_Macroprudential policy: Banks risk & Capital C...
 
Stress Testing and the Impact that Over-Reliance on VaR as a risk metric in t...
Stress Testing and the Impact that Over-Reliance on VaR as a risk metric in t...Stress Testing and the Impact that Over-Reliance on VaR as a risk metric in t...
Stress Testing and the Impact that Over-Reliance on VaR as a risk metric in t...
 
House Price Expectations , Boom Bust Cycles and Implications for Monetary Policy
House Price Expectations , Boom Bust Cycles and Implications for Monetary PolicyHouse Price Expectations , Boom Bust Cycles and Implications for Monetary Policy
House Price Expectations , Boom Bust Cycles and Implications for Monetary Policy
 
C&I delinquency forecast_MC2
C&I delinquency forecast_MC2C&I delinquency forecast_MC2
C&I delinquency forecast_MC2
 
Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal-policy Model: The Unit of Acc...
Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal-policy Model: The Unit of Acc...Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal-policy Model: The Unit of Acc...
Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal-policy Model: The Unit of Acc...
 
Persistent Slowdowns, Expectations and Macroeconomic Policy
Persistent Slowdowns, Expectations and Macroeconomic PolicyPersistent Slowdowns, Expectations and Macroeconomic Policy
Persistent Slowdowns, Expectations and Macroeconomic Policy
 
Data Quality in the Banking Industry: Turning Regulatory Compliance into Busi...
Data Quality in the Banking Industry: Turning Regulatory Compliance into Busi...Data Quality in the Banking Industry: Turning Regulatory Compliance into Busi...
Data Quality in the Banking Industry: Turning Regulatory Compliance into Busi...
 
Dynamic Scoring at CBO
Dynamic Scoring at CBODynamic Scoring at CBO
Dynamic Scoring at CBO
 
The Impacts of CECL on Modeling and Risk Management
The Impacts of CECL on Modeling and Risk ManagementThe Impacts of CECL on Modeling and Risk Management
The Impacts of CECL on Modeling and Risk Management
 
The evolution of central bank governance around the world.
The evolution of central bank governance around the world.   The evolution of central bank governance around the world.
The evolution of central bank governance around the world.
 
Assessing Financial Sustainability of Indian Municipal Bodies
Assessing Financial Sustainability of Indian Municipal Bodies Assessing Financial Sustainability of Indian Municipal Bodies
Assessing Financial Sustainability of Indian Municipal Bodies
 
Final Time series analysis part 2. pptx
Final Time series analysis part 2.  pptxFinal Time series analysis part 2.  pptx
Final Time series analysis part 2. pptx
 
Ready for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework
Ready for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic frameworkReady for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework
Ready for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework
 
CECL Performance Assessment
CECL Performance AssessmentCECL Performance Assessment
CECL Performance Assessment
 
Do States Circumvent Supermajority Voting Requirements to Raise Taxes?
Do States Circumvent Supermajority Voting Requirements to Raise Taxes?Do States Circumvent Supermajority Voting Requirements to Raise Taxes?
Do States Circumvent Supermajority Voting Requirements to Raise Taxes?
 
Fiscal Rules in the World Panel Data 5
Fiscal Rules in the World Panel Data 5Fiscal Rules in the World Panel Data 5
Fiscal Rules in the World Panel Data 5
 
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Mark...
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Mark...Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Mark...
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Mark...
 
CBO’s Cost Estimates
CBO’s Cost EstimatesCBO’s Cost Estimates
CBO’s Cost Estimates
 

Recently uploaded

Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024
Albert Hoitingh
 
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...
UiPathCommunity
 
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a button
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a buttonConnector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a button
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a button
DianaGray10
 
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI support
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportEpistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI support
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI support
Alan Dix
 
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with Parameters
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with ParametersEssentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with Parameters
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with Parameters
Safe Software
 
Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*
Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*
Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*
Frank van Harmelen
 
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: The WebAuthn API and Discoverable Credentials.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: The WebAuthn API and Discoverable Credentials.pdfFIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: The WebAuthn API and Discoverable Credentials.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: The WebAuthn API and Discoverable Credentials.pdf
FIDO Alliance
 
PCI PIN Basics Webinar from the Controlcase Team
PCI PIN Basics Webinar from the Controlcase TeamPCI PIN Basics Webinar from the Controlcase Team
PCI PIN Basics Webinar from the Controlcase Team
ControlCase
 
Mission to Decommission: Importance of Decommissioning Products to Increase E...
Mission to Decommission: Importance of Decommissioning Products to Increase E...Mission to Decommission: Importance of Decommissioning Products to Increase E...
Mission to Decommission: Importance of Decommissioning Products to Increase E...
Product School
 
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: FIDO Security Aspects.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: FIDO Security Aspects.pdfFIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: FIDO Security Aspects.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: FIDO Security Aspects.pdf
FIDO Alliance
 
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4
DianaGray10
 
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 preview
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 previewState of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 preview
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 preview
Prayukth K V
 
Unsubscribed: Combat Subscription Fatigue With a Membership Mentality by Head...
Unsubscribed: Combat Subscription Fatigue With a Membership Mentality by Head...Unsubscribed: Combat Subscription Fatigue With a Membership Mentality by Head...
Unsubscribed: Combat Subscription Fatigue With a Membership Mentality by Head...
Product School
 
Empowering NextGen Mobility via Large Action Model Infrastructure (LAMI): pav...
Empowering NextGen Mobility via Large Action Model Infrastructure (LAMI): pav...Empowering NextGen Mobility via Large Action Model Infrastructure (LAMI): pav...
Empowering NextGen Mobility via Large Action Model Infrastructure (LAMI): pav...
Thierry Lestable
 
How world-class product teams are winning in the AI era by CEO and Founder, P...
How world-class product teams are winning in the AI era by CEO and Founder, P...How world-class product teams are winning in the AI era by CEO and Founder, P...
How world-class product teams are winning in the AI era by CEO and Founder, P...
Product School
 
GenAISummit 2024 May 28 Sri Ambati Keynote: AGI Belongs to The Community in O...
GenAISummit 2024 May 28 Sri Ambati Keynote: AGI Belongs to The Community in O...GenAISummit 2024 May 28 Sri Ambati Keynote: AGI Belongs to The Community in O...
GenAISummit 2024 May 28 Sri Ambati Keynote: AGI Belongs to The Community in O...
Sri Ambati
 
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...
DanBrown980551
 
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...
James Anderson
 
Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024
Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024
Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024
Tobias Schneck
 
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: Passkeys at Amazon.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: Passkeys at Amazon.pdfFIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: Passkeys at Amazon.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: Passkeys at Amazon.pdf
FIDO Alliance
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024
 
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...
 
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a button
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a buttonConnector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a button
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a button
 
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI support
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportEpistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI support
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI support
 
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with Parameters
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with ParametersEssentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with Parameters
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with Parameters
 
Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*
Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*
Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*
 
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: The WebAuthn API and Discoverable Credentials.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: The WebAuthn API and Discoverable Credentials.pdfFIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: The WebAuthn API and Discoverable Credentials.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: The WebAuthn API and Discoverable Credentials.pdf
 
PCI PIN Basics Webinar from the Controlcase Team
PCI PIN Basics Webinar from the Controlcase TeamPCI PIN Basics Webinar from the Controlcase Team
PCI PIN Basics Webinar from the Controlcase Team
 
Mission to Decommission: Importance of Decommissioning Products to Increase E...
Mission to Decommission: Importance of Decommissioning Products to Increase E...Mission to Decommission: Importance of Decommissioning Products to Increase E...
Mission to Decommission: Importance of Decommissioning Products to Increase E...
 
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: FIDO Security Aspects.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: FIDO Security Aspects.pdfFIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: FIDO Security Aspects.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: FIDO Security Aspects.pdf
 
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4
 
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 preview
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 previewState of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 preview
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 preview
 
Unsubscribed: Combat Subscription Fatigue With a Membership Mentality by Head...
Unsubscribed: Combat Subscription Fatigue With a Membership Mentality by Head...Unsubscribed: Combat Subscription Fatigue With a Membership Mentality by Head...
Unsubscribed: Combat Subscription Fatigue With a Membership Mentality by Head...
 
Empowering NextGen Mobility via Large Action Model Infrastructure (LAMI): pav...
Empowering NextGen Mobility via Large Action Model Infrastructure (LAMI): pav...Empowering NextGen Mobility via Large Action Model Infrastructure (LAMI): pav...
Empowering NextGen Mobility via Large Action Model Infrastructure (LAMI): pav...
 
How world-class product teams are winning in the AI era by CEO and Founder, P...
How world-class product teams are winning in the AI era by CEO and Founder, P...How world-class product teams are winning in the AI era by CEO and Founder, P...
How world-class product teams are winning in the AI era by CEO and Founder, P...
 
GenAISummit 2024 May 28 Sri Ambati Keynote: AGI Belongs to The Community in O...
GenAISummit 2024 May 28 Sri Ambati Keynote: AGI Belongs to The Community in O...GenAISummit 2024 May 28 Sri Ambati Keynote: AGI Belongs to The Community in O...
GenAISummit 2024 May 28 Sri Ambati Keynote: AGI Belongs to The Community in O...
 
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...
 
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...
 
Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024
Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024
Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024
 
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: Passkeys at Amazon.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: Passkeys at Amazon.pdfFIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: Passkeys at Amazon.pdf
FIDO Alliance Osaka Seminar: Passkeys at Amazon.pdf
 

Sea 2011

  • 1. Current Account Dynamics: A SVAR Analysis When the Structural Shocks are not Orthogonal César R. Sobrino- Universidad del Turabo Email: sobrinoc1@suagm.edu Ellis Heath- Valdosta State University Email: ebheath@valdosta.edu
  • 2. Motivation • Using Canada and UK, Kano (2008) analyzes the Intertemporal Current Account Approach (ICA). • For a small open economy: • Current account is independent of global shocks. • Current account responds positively to a positive country-specific temporary shock. • Current account does not respond to country-specific permanent shocks.
  • 3. Motivation • Three-variable SVAR with long run restrictions. Blanchard & Quah (1989). • Ex-ante global real interest rate, net output growth and current account/net output. • Permanent shocks to those series are the structural shocks. • The variance-covariance matrix of structural shocks is the identity matrix.
  • 4. Motivation • Using a SVAR approach, his findings fit predictions • But, there two puzzles: – Excessive response of the current account to country-specific transitory shock. – Country-specific transitory shocks dominate current account variations in the short and long run, but they do no play any role in net output growth fluctuations.
  • 5. Motivation • No correlation assumptions might be determining the Kano’s puzzles. • Enders and Hurns (2007). – SVAR with long-run restrictions and structural shocks are correlated at leads. – Idiosyncratic shocks should be correlated due to fiscal and monetary policies.
  • 7. Methodology • Variables – rt: ex ante global interest rate. – ∆lnNOt: Net output growth – CA/NOt: either current account over net output growth
  • 8. VAR in reduced form • Matrix of observed residuals
  • 9. In this setup • 9 unknowns: – three elements of B(0) – The variances of the structural shocks – The covariances of structural shocks • 7 equations – 6 elements of variance-covariance matrix of observed residuals. – A long run restriction:
  • 10. In this setup • Just identified system ,assuming no correlation between the global shock and idiosyncratic shocks. • Then, idiosyncratic shocks are correlated at leads. • Two schemes
  • 13. Data • IMF, quarterly 1971:1-2006:2 for Canada and UK – The ex-ante global interest rate is a weighted average of the ex-ante real interest rate minus the forecasted inflation in the G7 countries. – The net output is the real GDP minus investment minus government expenses minus stock variation. – The current account is the real GNP minus consumption minus investment minus government expenses minus stock variation
  • 16. Scheme I - Forecast-error variance decomposition
  • 17. Scheme II - Forecast-error variance decomposition
  • 18. Scheme I – Canada: Impulse-response functions
  • 19. Scheme I – UK: Impulse-response functions
  • 20. Scheme II – Canada: Impulse-response functions
  • 21. Scheme II – UK: Impulse-response functions