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Scotlandspomfeb13charts130213 130213031052-phpapp01
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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
February 2013
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Support for independence increased to 34% among those certain
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to vote, up four points since October 2012 3
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
All Certain to vote
Undecided Undecided
Yes 11% Yes
16%
32% 34%
55%
52%
No No
„Yes‟ change since Oct = +4% „Yes‟ change since Oct = +4%
Base: All = 1,003; all certain to vote = 73% (735). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
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Support for independence is highest among men, those agedbrand logo
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24 and SNP supporters 4
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ SNP Labour Cons. Lib
Dem
70%
58%
41% 38%
28% 28% 27%
15% 19% Yes
5%
17% No
38%
48% 54% 52%
61% 61%
73% 73%
94%
Base: All certain to vote = 73% (735). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
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The rise in support for independence has bucked the recent brand logo
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trend 5
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
January 2012 June 2012 October 2012 February 2013
39% 35% 34%
30%
Yes
No
50% 55% 55%
58%
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
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Support for independence – 35 year trend brand logo
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6
60
50 Scottish Parliament opens
Support for independence (%)
Introduction of the poll tax
Devolution referendum SNP form majority
in Scotland
government
40
30
20
SNP form minority
Edinburgh
government
Agreement
10 signed
Devolution referendum
0
2011
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
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- 8. The SNP has a eight point lead over Labour among those certainco-
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to vote in a Scottish Parliament election… here
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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use
your first vote?
All giving a voting All who are certain to
intention (83%) vote (65%)
Others – 1% Others – 2%
Lib Dem 8%
Lib Dem SNP
SNP 7%
Cons. 14% Cons. 13%
41% 43%
35%
36%
Labour Labour
SNP lead over Labour = +5% SNP lead over Labour = +8%
Base: All giving a voting intention = 83% (841); all certain to vote = 65% (647). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
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… increasing the gap that had been closing throughout 2012 brand logo
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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use
your first vote?
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
60 Scottish Parliament Election Scottish Parliament Election
Result Result
50
43%
40
35%
30
20
13%
10
7%
0 2%
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
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Half of Scots are satisfied with the job that Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon
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are doing, while Johann Lamont continues to improve her profile 11
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Deputy First Minister/Leader of
Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/the Better Together Campaign?
Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction
change
Dissatisfied Satisfied (since Oct ‟12)
Alex Salmond 43% 50% 7% +7% -3%
Nicola Sturgeon 33% 50% 17% +17% NA
Johann Lamont 31% 39% 31% +8% +3%
Alistair Darling 32% 33% 35% +1% NA
Ruth Davidson 33% 29% 39% -4% +5%
Patrick Harvie 16% 28% 56% +12% +7%
David Cameron 67% 27% 6% -40% -5%
Willie Rennie 29% 22% 49% -7% 0%
Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
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Satisfaction among own party supporters here
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Deputy First Minister/Leader of
Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/the Better Together Campaign?
Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction
change
Dissatisfied Satisfied (since Oct ‟12)
Alex Salmond 9% 90% 2% +81% +7%
Nicola Sturgeon 9% 77% 15% +68% NA
David Cameron 27% 67% 6% +40% -19%
Johann Lamont 20% 59% 21% +39% -2%
Ruth Davidson 19% 55% 26% +36% -5%
Willie Rennie 23% 49% 28% +26% -11%
Alistair Darling 27% 40% 33% +13% NA
Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
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Satisfaction among own campaign supporters here
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as Deputy First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign?
Dissatisfied Satisfied
Don‟t know Net satisfaction
Nicola Sturgeon (among 'Yes' voters) 14% 71% 15% +57%
Alistair Darling (among 'No' voters) 26% 41% 33% +15%
Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 4-9 February 2013
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Satisfaction with party leader trends here
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime
Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron
70
60
50 50%
40 39%
29%
30 28%
27%
20 22%
10
0
Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
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Net Satisfaction with party leader trends here
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime
Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron
40
30
20
+13
10 +8
+7
0 -4
Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13
-10 -7
-20
-30
-40 -40
-50
-60
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
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Technical details brand logo
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents
conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 4th February – 9th February 2013
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don‟t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 @IpsosMORIScot
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264
© Ipsos MORI This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006.
