Every six months, SapientNitro's Research & Insights team identifies a set of digital trends shaping the marketing landscape.
This is the public version of these trends, which are shared with clients and our 11,000 employees.
From native advertising to shopping-in-increments, this presentation reveals key consumer behavior trends shaping the marketing landscape for Fortune 500 companies.
Similar to Mary Meeker, we attempt to highlight the current state, and point towards a vision of the future.
If you'd like to talk more about these and other insights, feel free to reach out to Hilding Anderson on twitter or LinkedIn.
Thank you.
2. About your Speaker: Hilding Anderson
Director of SapientNitro’s Research Institute
15 years of experience
Editor of Insights
Published in Forbes, speaker at SXSWi
Entrepreneur
2
3. Focus of this session
Every six months, SapientNitro’s Research +
Insights team updates the company on the latest
emerging trends and statistics related to digital.
This session will focus on the latest mobile, social
and digital trends which we think are particularly
relevant.
3
4. Preamble
1.
2.
Brands as Producers (in real-time & native)
3.
Nine Digital Trends
Shopping In Increments
Mobile Payments
4.
The Impermanent Internet
5.
A Product Line of One
6.
Rise of Experience-Led Brands
7.
Social Media Evolving: WhatsApp and Vine
8.
Hardware is the new software
9.
Six Interesting Startups
4
5. We’ve entered our third internet decade – how are
we doing?
5
Source: BI Intelligence‐provided framework
6. Nearly 3 billion people online
Global Internet Population
3,000
2,500
(millions)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source: International Communication Union, Google
6
7. About half left to go…
Global Internet Population
8,000
7,000
6,000
(millions)
5,000
4,000
3,000
Global Population
2,000
1,000
Internet Population
0
Source: International Communication Union, Google
7
8. 2014 will be the year that the internet goes mostly mobile
Smartphone + tablets > 60% of all connected devices today
Global Internet Device Installed Base
4,000,000
Number Of Devices In Use (In Thousands)
3,500,000
Wearables
3,000,000
Smart TVs
Tablets
2,500,000
60% (~2 billion)
2,000,000
Smartphones
1,500,000
1,000,000
Personal Computers
(Desktop And
Notebook)
500,000
0
2004
2005
Source: BI Intelligence
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013E
8
9. Mobile is the only media whose share is increasing
U.S. Consumer Media Consumption Share
50%
45%
45%
44%
43%
40%
42%
38%
35%
30%
25%
25%
26% 26% 26%
20%
20%
20%
17%
16%
15%
15%
14%
12%
12%
9%
9%
10%
6%
8%
7%
6%
4%
5%
7%
4%
8%
7%
5% 5%
0%
TV
Source: eMarketer, August 2013
Online
Radio
2009
2010
Mobile
2011
2012
Print
Other
2013
9
10. The continued roll-out of 4G and the increased authentication and
security in devices and operating systems will make mobility ever-more
integrated into our lives
People live complex lives on the their smartphone – and the device’s span of control is growing… (see
Trend #3)
Breakdown Of The Average Smartphone Owner's Daily Time‐Spend
On Average, U.S. Smartphone Owners Spend 58 Minutes Daily On Their
Phones
Email
9%
Other
8%
Visit Websites
14%
Text
20%
Games
8%
Talk
26%
Source: Experian Marketing Services, May 2013
Social Networking
15%
10
11. Mobile + blended traffic is > 50% for Amazon and eBay
Leading Retailers' Digital Audience Population
By Device
160
140
(Millions)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Amazon
eBay
Wal‐Mart
Apple
Desktop Only
Target
Best Buy
Desktop + Mobile
The Home
Depot
Ticketmaster
Etsy
Lowes
Mobile Only
Source: comScore
11
12. Our experiences in the physical and digital spaces have irreversibly
collapsed into one*
12
14. Trend 1: We are seeing the development of new consumer behavior –
what we call Shopping In Increments
More than just snackable content, consumers are shopping across devices
14
15. This behavior is widespread
Shifting between devices (smartphone, tablet & laptop) 21 times per hour; Google: 90% of consumer shift
effortlessly between devices, +500% using multiple devices than 3 years ago
Three Examples supporting snackable shopping:
1. OMD found that the average person shifted his attention
between his smartphone, tablet, and laptop a staggering
21 times in one hour.
2. Google ad sales chief Neal Mohan, claimed that more
than 90% of today's consumers switch effortlessly
between devices to complete a task, with 500% more
people simultaneously using multiple devices than were
three years prior.
3. When consumers shop online, the average time between
adding a product to their cart and checking out has
grown 38 percent over the last five years, from 2 hours to
2.6 hours.
15
16. Tablet and smartphone activity – where most of the media consumption time
growth is located – has the shortest time per interaction of any channel
More evidence of shopping in increments behavior; people spend 1/3 of time per interaction on smartphone
vs. TV
Average Minutes Spent Per Interaction By Device
50
43
39
40
30
Minutes
30
20
17
10
0
TV
PC/Laptop
Tablet
Smartphone
Source: Google, August 2012
16
19. Five Imperatives For CMOs to respond
1.
Insight: CMOs need to understand consumer
behavior much more intimately than they do
today. New data is available to us in the form of
the “digital exhaust” must be leveraged.
4.
Technology: You need the right technology
platform that can deliver the right bite-sized
content and experiences at the right time, in the
right format.
2.
Storyscaping: A CMO needs to build a Storyscape
of communications and experiences around a
central organising idea. The Storyscape delivers
bite-sized interactions and responds in real time
to the snacking consumer.
5.
3.
Digitising the Shopping Environment: We can
no longer distinguish between online and offline
behavior. People are comparing prices, checking
reviews and even ordering while in-store. They are
just as likely to do research, try demos and ask
friends for advice at home as they are to go to the
store.
People: A different approach to marketing
requires new skill sets – publishing, technology,
curation, social, data, experimentation, and
invention. Leading companies are rethinking
marketing global structures and skill sets to allow
them to succeed in this changing world.
19
21. Brands are searching for effective online (web + mobile + tablet) advertising
Even as the definition of ‘Native Advertising’ remains in flux, this approach is winning favor in
the digital arena; replacing the display ad?
Native spending anticipated to rise 20.5% this year in
the US
• Premium publishers increasingly selling customized,
“native” digital executions
• Responding to automated, programmatic display-ad
buying
• Newspapers and magazines will see digital ad revenue
growth increase 5.6% and 13.3%, respectively, in 2013
• Digital-only publications lead the growth: Vice Media,
Buzzfeed, Mashable and others who are willing to
experiment with the customized, so-called “native”
executions heavily integrated with editorial.
21
22. Defining a Native Ad: An ad which is native to the
platform on which it is run
The definition of a “native” ad is
nonstandard, and eMarketer considers
placements such as Facebook’s Sponsored
Stories or Twitter’s Promoted Tweets,
which some have characterized as native,
as display advertising but not as
sponsorships.)
Why ‘Native:’ Native ads are ads in a
format that is native to the platform
on which they are run, bought or
sold. Native advertising is the activity
of producing, buying and selling
native ads."[
22
24. Blogs are the most effective channel for native advertising, according
to publishers
Articles and videos are effective for over half of respondents as well
24
34. But the traditional brand marketing team organization structure –
and more importantly much of the management focus - is not
aligned with the customer behavior
34
35. Yum! Brands has built a ‘newsroom’ to make real-time
content creation possible
35
36. Conveniently, the idea of real-time brand content
dovetails nicely with our Storyscaping approach
36
38. Mobile Payments & Apple’s Trojan Horse
Latest from Apple: iBeacon and Touch ID, combined with Passbook; they have established the
core parts of a mobile payments landscape. No NFC. Potential to be larger than Amex + Paypal in
transaction volume
Biometric Authentication
In-Store Wireless Platform
Apple ID linked to
Payments
Recent activity around NFC and iWallet patents, coupled with the
acquisitions of AuthenTec and WiFiSLAM, suggests that Apple may
be close to outlining a more concrete strategy around local (or proximity‐
based) payments.
‐ AuthenTec’s fingerprint sensor technology
‐ WiFiSLAM acquisition enables Apple to leverage technology that uses
WiFi signals to calculate precise locations of phones indoors (i.e.
38
where GPS often fails).
39. More about the iBeacon technology
‘Steering you around the store’ without a salesperson; reinforces SapientNitro research (see
Insights 2014) on retail mobile wayfinding
At the NYC store, Apple has installed about 20 iBeacon
transmitters, some of which are simply iPhones and iPads, which
come with the capability as part of the iOS 7 mobile software
released in September. The transmitters use Bluetooth wireless
technology to sense your exact location. That's not possible with
GPS, which don't work well indoors and aren't good at
distinguishing between locations that are just a few feet apart.
The beacons can be adjusted to specific distances, so you may get
some notifications regardless of where you are inside. Others will
come only when you are standing at a particular aisle, wall or
product demo table. The store can also send out notifications
about deals or upcoming events.
39
40. MLB will be using iBeacon + Passbook in stadiums across the U.S. in 2014
Building on 2013 season Passbook execution; used by 12% of all e-ticket buyers in 2013. At bat,
the in-stadium mobile app, offered as a $20 in-app upgrade
•
As the user approaches the ballpark's gates, ticketing
information would be pulled up by the app and instantly
displayed. In addition, once a user was within the stadium the
app would display directions to their seats.
•
Teams can also adjust the app to react to stadium-specific
landmarks and points of interest. For instance, if a user were
to use the app near the New York Mets' Citi Field's iconic apple
statue the app would play a video detailing the history of the
stadium or the apple.
•
User experiences won't be the same for each visit, notes
Mashable. The app will include a loyalty card-like program
where teams can choose to reward multiple visits with
coupons for merchandise, food or beverages. It can also direct
users to parts of the stadium they haven't yet activated,
•
At Bat, the $20 in-app upgrade, brings added features like live
game coverage and tie-ins with MLB.TV subscriptions, is
largely dominated by IOS users in 2013.
40
41. Implication: Mobile will become even more integrated into our daily lives
The ability to make payments instantly from anywhere will drive further changes in consumer behavior
and how retailers, financial services and travel & hospitality sell
• Biometrics could be a major driver of remote mobile
payments growth
• A challenge to NFC. NFC is facing a major challenge
at this point, even as the installed base reaches a
significant level.
• The technology at least – but neither the consumers
nor retailers - is ready for in-store payments
PayPal Beacon uses BLE, but isn’t in Apple’s
iBeacon ecosystem. Instead, it links existing
POS devices to enable customers to use Paypal
on their mobile to make payments
41
44. Snapchat: A Leading Indicator
WSJ: “Snapchat was the most important technology of 2013.” Before Snapchat, the Eraseable
Internet wasn’t broadly considered, everything was a ‘Forever Internet’.
Three reasons:
• A new way to think about data: Snapchat is one of the first
mainstream services to show us that our photos and texts don't
need to stick around forever: that erasing all the digital effluvia
generated by our phones and computers can be just as popular a
concept as saving it.
• Erasability as a competitive feature —the Internet would look
very different from the Internet of today. It would be a more private
network, one without the constant worry of every ill-considered
picture or thought being held up for ridicule by the whole world,
forever.
• Our vision: A Balanced Future: Forever Internet and an Erasable
Internet living side by side?
44
45. The Impermanent Internet
Multiple companies are exploring the ‘Disappearing Internet:’ A new Twitter
service #15m
Confide: An off‐the‐recorder
messenger for professionals: HR
issues to media requests to "deal
making."
Blink‐link: a link which disappears after a
certain number of clicks
Twitter’s Spirit makes
messages disappear after
a certain period of time
Whisper (a sort of anonymous Instagram)
Tor: a secure web traffic anonymizer
45
46. What this means for clients
• Consider the lifespan of the data we collect and interpret
for clients
• Be thoughtful about what data is collected and how long
we need it
• Be open and transparent with users about how that data
is being used and stored
46
50. Much of this ‘Mass Customization’ trend is driven by millennials
4 in 10 millennials are interested in co-creating products with brands
•
4 in 10 Millennials from around the world
want brands to allow them to influence
their products (co-creation).
•
8 in 10 Millennials want to be
‘entertained by brands’ such as:
By creating online content such as
videos, photos, games, and blogs (31%)
Millennials are alpha-influencers: Seven in
10 believe it is their responsibility to share
feedback with brands when they have a
good or bad experience.
74% of Millennials think they influence the
purchase decisions of peers and those in
other generations
50
51. This trends is playing out across personalized digital tools…
And the collection and ‘sense-making’ of the latest digital sensors and life tools
Withings Pulse Monitor
$99
Fitbit Force
iOS blood pressure
monitor. $129
51
52. …. in the growth of 3D Printers
Two years away from the start of the rapid-growth phase. 5 to 10 years to widespread consumer
usage. 1.2M Printers anticipated to be sold in 2017; compare with 40M TVs sold in the U.S. in 2013
Global Unit Shipments of 3D Printers < $50k
• Still a nascent market, with hype
outpacing the technical realities,
• Combined or even driving the
Maker Movement
• Today, consumers are using 3DP to
make truly personalized and
unique toys and gifts, jewelry and
avatars, school projects and hobby
items.
CAGR = 95.4%
• Today, no compelling item that a
consumer can acquire only by
producing it on a 3DP at home
Gartner September 2013
52
53. And in numerous one-off tools
CONSUMER AS CREATOR: Pop-up store offers instant t-shirt customization
Opened in London during July
2013, YrStore is a pop-up store where
customers can print their own t-shirts.
Via a touchscreen system, shoppers
can design apparel with either stock
images or their own artwork, and add
photographic filters and text. Finalized
designs can be printed immediately
in-store, priced from GBP 20.
53
54. CONSUMER AS CREATOR: Motorola’s Moto X is a contender for the
most intuitive & personalized handheld
Moto X’s “always listening” mode means that it's on
constant alert for its owner’s voice commands. Motorola
Assist knows when its owner has gone into a meeting or
started driving a car, and automatically changes its
behavior for the situation: It quiets itself or reads
messages aloud so that eyes stay on the road. It can
even sync incoming text messages and voice caller ID to
Google’s Chrome browser on a computer.
The personalization doesn’t end with the phone’s
software. Consumers can design the aesthetics, too.
Moto X is available in 252 possible color combinations,
including teal, plum, four shades of white and even
several varieties of real hardwood.
54
55. Customize my life: Highly customized NikeID shoes
Nine areas of customization: from outsole to upper to selection of every fabric section color
55
56. Sephora’s Color IQ service scans a customer’s skin and pinpoints her
foundation match
Color IQ is a beauty service that scans the surface
of the customer’s skin, assigns it a Color IQ numer,
and finds the scientifically precise foundation math
from over 1,500 options.
The Pantone Color Institute researched and mapped
out 110 skintones to build the Color IQ Library
created exclusively for Sephora. Customers can visit
their local Sephora to receive a free Color IQ
consultation.
56
57. Ray-Ban Remix enables customers to create personalized sunglasses
Launched online across four EU
countries in July 2013, Ray-Ban Remix
enables customers to create their own
customized pair of sunglasses. The
Italian eyewear brand's project allows
shoppers to personalize four different
models of sunglasses (including Aviator
and Wayfarer styles), by choosing colors,
lenses, materials and adding up to five
characters. Once customers have created
their sunglasses on the Ray-Ban Remix
website, their model is shipped in around
three to five days.
57
61. In fact…
95%
80%
of firms say they are
“customer focused”
say they deliver a
“superior experience”
“Closing the Delivery Gap” study of 362 firms by Bain & Co
62. But only…
of customers agree they deliver
a “superior experience”
“Closing the Delivery Gap” study of 362 firms by Bain & Co
63. We started the research with a simple question
What makes a great customer experience great?
64. Goals of the research
In this study, we had three major research goals.
1. Identify leading examples of great customer experiences in the
digital age.
2. Research the constituent elements of those experiences: What are
the essential elements, what work do they do for customers?
3. Research the “back story”: What are the organizational, leadership,
technology, and business components which make the experience
possible?
65. We assessed 28 companies that are recognized as
customer experience leaders, and audited the experience…
• We started with the list of companies featured in Forrester Research’s
Customer Experience Online Survey (from the fourth quarter of 2012).
We selected only those brands that received the top customer
experience score in their industry.
• We then added 10 fast-growing startups from Fast Company’s 2013
Most Innovative Companies.
• Finally, we conducted more than 30 expert reviews to determine which
companies to evaluate and explore their back story.
We then conducted visits across various digital and many physical touchpoints for the brands assessed,
including Red Bull’s Meadowland Field, Walt Disney World, NASCAR’s Richmond International Raceway,
and Marshalls Chicago store. We audited their various online, tablet, mobile, and physical properties and
scored them in each of five experience dimensions.
68. Our research suggests six imperatives for marketers
1.
The consumer is never entirely passive.
2.
Let the players tell the story.
3.
We must redefine what it means to be the author.
4.
Provide immersive experiences for all skill levels.
5.
Plan for a lifetime.
6.
To build powerful experiences, shape stories around an
organizing idea.
68
69. Imperative #1
1.
The Consumer is never entirely passive. Brands must engage consumers
by building worlds in which immersive experiences enable them to explore
and interact with the brand. Doing so creates a wildly different outcome as
compared to focusing on passive ads, which consumers tend to skip.
Examples include:
69
70. Imperative #2
2. Let the players tell the story. The brand is the tool and world builder. But the
players have significant power in determining how the story unfolds and often
co-create with the brand.
Examples include:
*
* Disney is a mixed case – they significantly limit storytelling
70
71. Imperative #3
3. We must redefine what it means to be the author. Authorship is no longer
about a one-way telling of story; rather, the brand’s role is evolving to
providing the components for a story that is authored by customers.
Components can be mobile apps, digital platforms, sensors that collect
consumer data, social media and more.
Examples include:
71
72. Imperative #4
4. Provide Immersive Experiences for All Skill Levels: The design of
the experience provided by the brand should be easy enough for a
beginner but also challenging enough for an expert. This balance can
be achieved by building a flexible “on-ramp” to the experience, whether
it is a personal financial management platform (e.g., USAA) or a
digitally enhanced family ski experience (e.g., Vail Resorts).
Examples include:
72
73. Imperative #5
5. Plan for a Lifetime: Expect a multiyear investment. These are longliving customer platforms, delivering long-term value. They’re not
campaigns.
Examples include:
73
74. Imperative #6
6. To Build Powerful Experiences, Shape Stories around an
Organizing Idea: Our research found that experience-led brands use
themes to design, develop and maintain their experience space.
Unifying and resonant themes make experiences much stronger.
Examples Include:
74
77. While Facebook and Twitter remain dominant…
1.1B monthly active users on FB, 200M MAU on Twitter
Monthly Active Users: Facebook vs. Twitter
1,400
1,200
Facebook
(Millions)
1,000
800
600
400
Twitter
200
0
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q09 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Source: Company Filings
77
78. The last six months has shown a significant growth in new things
Total User Base
400,000,000
350,000,000
Total User Base Size
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
WhatsApp
150,000,000
100,000,000
Instagram
50,000,000
Snapchat
0
Source: News Reports, Company Listings, ComScore, BII Estimates
78
79. WhatsApp: A social sharing app grows carries more
messaging traffic than Facebook
20B messages per day, no advertising permitted
• 44% use WhatsApp at least once a week,
whereas just 35 per cent use Facebook
messenger. (1)
• The research by On Device also found that
Snapchat’s largest source of users are 16 to 24‐
year‐olds in the US; the same group which
research has suggested is leaving Facebook.
• In April, WhatsApp’s chief executive Jan Koum
claimed that the service now has more users
than Twitter and carries more messages than
Facebook.
• He said WhatsApp carries as many as 20 billion
messages per day, double Facebook’s daily
message traffic.
• No advertising (0.99 annual fee)
79
80. 2013 has been a remarkable year for WhatsApp
WhatsApp Growth
300
20
Active Users
20
300
250
17
200
200
15
12
10
11
10
8
150
100
5
50
Number Of Active Users (Millions)
Number Of Daily Messages (Billions)
25
0
0
Apr‐13
Jun‐13
Messages Sent
Source: WhatsApp, News Reports
Aug‐13
Messages Received
80
82. And Snapchat has nearly half the photo sharing market
Top Photo Sharing Sites, August 2013
Share Of Average Daily Photo Uploads Among Top 4 Sites (544 Million Daily Uploads
Total)
Instagram
7%
Flickr
1%
Facebook
46%
Snapchat
46%
Source: BI Intelligence
82
83. Vine
• Two-thirds of the world’s mobile data traffic
will be video by 2017.
• Five tweets per second contain a Vine link.
• Instagram has about 130 million users,
compared to Vine’s 13 million users.
• Instagram videos are creating two-times
more engagement than Instagram photos.
83
86. Broadly, several other innovations in Social Media
The video opportunity: New video ad products
and partnerships with TV networks will provide
branding opportunities and may help social
media platforms gain access to coveted TV ad
budgets.
Social = mobile: Facebook has become a
powerhouse in mobile, while Twitter gets twothirds of its ad revenues from the medium. For
many marketers, the easiest way into mobile
advertising will be via social media.
Native expansion: With the success of feedbased ads in 2013, social companies will
increase the number of ads users see—and the
chances of backlash will rise.
programmatically as technology improves to
support real-time content initiatives.
Moving beyond the walled garden: Via
MoPub, Twitter will start selling ads outside of
its own service. Facebook has also restarted its
own tests of a mobile ad network.
Location makes a comeback: After a few years
on the back burner, geotargeted social media
advertising will come back into the spotlight.
New venues, new ad opportunities: Instagram
and Pinterest are starting to sell ads, providing
fresh opportunities to reach consumers.
Social ads get more programmatic: More
social media ads will be bought
86
87. Trend 8: Hardware is the new software
aka ‘Put Some Internet On It’
"The category of the smart watch, that's just a train wreck right
now. People are trying to basically pack all of the stuff in the
phone on a watch. We're talking about keyboards that are one‐
inch wide…No one's going to adopt that," said Zachary Jean
Paradis, director of innovation strategy at SapientNitro.
87
88. Trend 8: Hardware is the new software
Building on the 2013 CES, this year we expect a continued proliferation of screen
sizes and display
88
89. And developers are ‘adding sexy’ and design to hardware
Pebble 2013
Pebble 2014: The Pebble Steel
89
90. VC firms are restructuring to provide more design skills
to startups
The program, dubbed KPCB ProductWorks, will
offer the usual mentoring, recruiting and
technical help that the firm’s startups have
come to expect, but the new program sets up a
formal process for working on product
development.
Key Hire:
• John Maeda (RISD) who is leaving his post as
the president of the Rhode Island School of
Design to start work with the venture capital
firm in January.
• “while design isn’t a new idea in technology
development, it’s often not given the same
weight as, say, engineering, because not
enough consideration is given to creating a
great experience for those who will actually
buy and use the product.”
90
91. And searching for a killer app…
The $99 ‘June’ bracelet from Netatmo measures UV intensity; targeting women taking care of
their skin
91
94. And it isn’t just screen size: resolution, colors and formfactors are proliferating
From Apple Retina display, to 4d UltraHD, to curved displays
94
95. Rise of the Android PC
PCs are now offered with hybrid Android and Windows 8 – or just Android
95
99. Scanadu: Check your health as easily as your email
A startup creating sensor that collects and sends your information to a doctor: 3 clinics - the ER
(hooked up)/electromagnetic, Labs, Imaging (CT/MRI/Ultrasound)
99
101. Leap Motion: Gesture control goes main stream
Leap Motion, the device that lets you control a
computer interface with hand gestures, is ideal for
gaming and design and also lets you explore cities
or the environment via Google Earth and other
apps. The gadget is three inches long and plugs
into your computer through its USB port.
The Leap Motion Controller tracks your hands and
fingers, and is hypersensitive to movements
including pinching, grasping and swiping. This
year, the company partnered with HP and plans on
embedding the motion-control technology on
future HP devices. Leap Motion retails for $79.99,
so it’s an inexpensive way to begin experimenting
with gesture-controlled technologies.
101
102. Circa: Taking content and breaking it down into
snackable chunks
Long news articles and small screens just don't play well
together.
Circa solves that problem by condensing the news and
making it much easier to read while on-the-go. Tediously
reading long articles just to stay up to date is a thing of the
past with Circa’s factual and comprehensive, but to-the-point
news coverage.
102