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Eray Cakici
October 12, 2020
IBM
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) at ÇİMSA
Data Science & AI Elite Team
3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR
Challenges in the deployment of OR projects
Agenda
1
CimSA S&OP Project
Overview
Solution Approach
Achievements
2
Challenges in the deployment
of OR projects – CimSA case
Challenges
Solutions
2
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
3
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ July, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
ÇimSA
§ World leader in white cement
§ 15+ grinding mills, 10+ kilns, 30+
silos in 15 Locations
§ $400M+ revenue/year
§ Core strengths in high quality special
cement products and strong network
structure
CimSA Supply Chain… 10.000 ft look
Sabanci Cement Group - Turkey
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
4
Supply Chain Optimization
The majority of a supply chain’s
lifecycle costs are locked-in at the
start
Decisions Value
Source: AMR Research, BCI
Solutions
Such “up-front” decisions include:
• Distribution Network
• Inventory Locations
• Supplier Network
• Inventory Levels
• Logistics Suppliers
Strategic
Tactical
Operational
Strategic
Supply
Chain
Planning
Advanced
Planning and
Scheduling
MRP/ERP
Execution
80%
20%
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
5
ÇİMSA & IBM Optimization Use Cases
Fuel Mix
Optimization
Strategic Problems
(Years-Months)
Tactical Problems
(Months - Weeks)
Operational
Problems
(Days - Real-time)
Inventory
Planning
S&OP
Integrated
Supply Chain
Scheduling
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
6
Sales and Operations Planning at ÇİMSA
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
CimSA S&OP team meets with executives every week to decide on:
• Sell / Not to Sell Decisions
• Order-Facility Assignments
• Customer Service Levels
• Inventory Levels
• Production Modes (High/Medium/Low speed)
• Line Conversions (white vs gray in certain kilns)
• Maintenance & Balancing Stops
• Plan for Next 24 Months
7
Solution Approach
Data Engineering:
Ensure complete and clean input
data and seamless integration with
SAP
Staging Database
Select best sales and
operations plan:
Maximize Profit & Fulfillment
Decision Optimization
Dashboard
Network plan details
Customer & Warehouse
allocations
Production & Warehousing &
Transportation plans
Capacity utilizations
The ultimate goal for ÇimSA is to be proficient in the use of the
technology as part of the S&OP process and conduct it internally.
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
Sales
Capacities
Costs
Compatabilities
Specific business rules
Data
8
Model Design Details
Input Data
Sales
Variable Costs
Fixed Costs
Transportation Types
Production Modes
Customer Priorities
Maintainences
Setups
Decision Optimization
A fine-tuned Mixed Integer
Mathematical Model
Constraints
(Business Rules)
Goals
BOMs
Recipes
Workcenters
Warehouses
Ports
Currency rates
Taxes
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
Maximize Profit
Maximize Fulfillment
Capacities
Compatabilities
Setup&Stopping Rules
Allocation Rules
Safety Stock
Min Fulfillment
9
Managing Supply Chain Risk
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
We’ve to do more with less
and we’ve to run many “what-if” scenarios
Business challenges
§ Integrated production and
distribution decisions
§ Multiple-objectives
§ Complex business rules
§ Capacity bottlenecks
§ Dynamic market conditions
§ Manual processes
Business benefits
§ Supply chain cost reduction
expected by 5-10%
§ Better customer service
§ Visibility of planning results
§ An automated and optimized
decision support system with
what-if scenario analysis
capabilities
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
Developed solution
Technical perspective:
§ A staging database is fully
integrated with Cimsa’s SAP
system
§ Custom web-based user
interfaces
§ Cplex is embedded into the
custom developed application
Model perspective:
§ A mixed integer mathematical
programming model
§ Parameter tunings
§ Warm-start and new multiple-
objective features
Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
14
Challenges in the deployment of
OR projects – CimSA case
3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR
Challenges in the deployment of OR projects
Collection
Validation
Preparation
Generation ?
3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR
Challenges in the deployment of OR projects 15
DATA
3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR
Challenges in the deployment of OR projects 16
SCOPE
Optimize ALL
or at least MORE
How do I know your solution is optimal?
17
TRUST
3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR
Challenges in the deployment of OR projects
18
DURATION
3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR
Challenges in the deployment of OR projects
§ Political Movements i.e. Arab Spring 2010-2012
§ Floods i.e. 2011 Thailand
§ Pandemics i.e. 2020 Covid
§ Team Changes i.e. Ginni Rometty retirement
SOLUTIONS
§ AI/ML à Data Cleanness & Completeness & “Generation”
§ Decomposition à Scope
§ Visualization & Reporting & What-If Analysis à Trust
§ Stay Calm à Duration
3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR
Challenges in the deployment of OR projects
Wrap Up
§ We’ve got the right “team”
§ The right “approach”
§ The right “optimization tool”
§ There continue to be great opportunities…
We had challenges AND
3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR
Challenges in the deployment of OR projects

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Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) at CIMSA

  • 1. Eray Cakici October 12, 2020 IBM Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) at ÇİMSA Data Science & AI Elite Team 3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR Challenges in the deployment of OR projects
  • 2. Agenda 1 CimSA S&OP Project Overview Solution Approach Achievements 2 Challenges in the deployment of OR projects – CimSA case Challenges Solutions 2 Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
  • 3. 3 Data Science & AI Elite Team/ July, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation ÇimSA § World leader in white cement § 15+ grinding mills, 10+ kilns, 30+ silos in 15 Locations § $400M+ revenue/year § Core strengths in high quality special cement products and strong network structure CimSA Supply Chain… 10.000 ft look Sabanci Cement Group - Turkey Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
  • 4. 4 Supply Chain Optimization The majority of a supply chain’s lifecycle costs are locked-in at the start Decisions Value Source: AMR Research, BCI Solutions Such “up-front” decisions include: • Distribution Network • Inventory Locations • Supplier Network • Inventory Levels • Logistics Suppliers Strategic Tactical Operational Strategic Supply Chain Planning Advanced Planning and Scheduling MRP/ERP Execution 80% 20% Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
  • 5. 5 ÇİMSA & IBM Optimization Use Cases Fuel Mix Optimization Strategic Problems (Years-Months) Tactical Problems (Months - Weeks) Operational Problems (Days - Real-time) Inventory Planning S&OP Integrated Supply Chain Scheduling Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
  • 6. 6 Sales and Operations Planning at ÇİMSA Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation CimSA S&OP team meets with executives every week to decide on: • Sell / Not to Sell Decisions • Order-Facility Assignments • Customer Service Levels • Inventory Levels • Production Modes (High/Medium/Low speed) • Line Conversions (white vs gray in certain kilns) • Maintenance & Balancing Stops • Plan for Next 24 Months
  • 7. 7 Solution Approach Data Engineering: Ensure complete and clean input data and seamless integration with SAP Staging Database Select best sales and operations plan: Maximize Profit & Fulfillment Decision Optimization Dashboard Network plan details Customer & Warehouse allocations Production & Warehousing & Transportation plans Capacity utilizations The ultimate goal for ÇimSA is to be proficient in the use of the technology as part of the S&OP process and conduct it internally. Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation Sales Capacities Costs Compatabilities Specific business rules Data
  • 8. 8 Model Design Details Input Data Sales Variable Costs Fixed Costs Transportation Types Production Modes Customer Priorities Maintainences Setups Decision Optimization A fine-tuned Mixed Integer Mathematical Model Constraints (Business Rules) Goals BOMs Recipes Workcenters Warehouses Ports Currency rates Taxes Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation Maximize Profit Maximize Fulfillment Capacities Compatabilities Setup&Stopping Rules Allocation Rules Safety Stock Min Fulfillment
  • 9. 9 Managing Supply Chain Risk Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
  • 10. We’ve to do more with less
  • 11. and we’ve to run many “what-if” scenarios
  • 12. Business challenges § Integrated production and distribution decisions § Multiple-objectives § Complex business rules § Capacity bottlenecks § Dynamic market conditions § Manual processes Business benefits § Supply chain cost reduction expected by 5-10% § Better customer service § Visibility of planning results § An automated and optimized decision support system with what-if scenario analysis capabilities Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
  • 13. Developed solution Technical perspective: § A staging database is fully integrated with Cimsa’s SAP system § Custom web-based user interfaces § Cplex is embedded into the custom developed application Model perspective: § A mixed integer mathematical programming model § Parameter tunings § Warm-start and new multiple- objective features Data Science & AI Elite Team/ October, 2020/ © 2020 IBM Corporation
  • 14. 14 Challenges in the deployment of OR projects – CimSA case 3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR Challenges in the deployment of OR projects
  • 15. Collection Validation Preparation Generation ? 3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR Challenges in the deployment of OR projects 15 DATA
  • 16. 3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR Challenges in the deployment of OR projects 16 SCOPE Optimize ALL or at least MORE
  • 17. How do I know your solution is optimal? 17 TRUST 3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR Challenges in the deployment of OR projects
  • 18. 18 DURATION 3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR Challenges in the deployment of OR projects § Political Movements i.e. Arab Spring 2010-2012 § Floods i.e. 2011 Thailand § Pandemics i.e. 2020 Covid § Team Changes i.e. Ginni Rometty retirement
  • 19. SOLUTIONS § AI/ML à Data Cleanness & Completeness & “Generation” § Decomposition à Scope § Visualization & Reporting & What-If Analysis à Trust § Stay Calm à Duration 3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR Challenges in the deployment of OR projects
  • 20. Wrap Up § We’ve got the right “team” § The right “approach” § The right “optimization tool” § There continue to be great opportunities… We had challenges AND 3rd conference of the EURO Working Group on the Practice of OR Challenges in the deployment of OR projects