Raimondas Kuodis apie finansializaciją

Geras/blogas kreditas,
ekonominis augimas,
turto kainos,
nelygybė:
neortodoksinis* požiūris
+ pasiūlymai ESCB monetarinei/makroprudencinei analizei
Raimondas Kuodis
2017 m. sausis
* neortodoksinis = ne vyraujantis
2017.01.11 www.ekonomika.org 1
Work in progress;
comments are welcome Benjamin Friedman (2009): “an important question—
which no one seems interested in addressing—
is what fraction of the economy’s total returns …
is absorbed up front by the financial industry.”
Kada mažakraujystė pereina į intoksikaciją?

Turinys
1. Kredito svarba
2. Kreditas kreditui nelygus
3. (Gero/blogo) kredito poveikis
4. Optimalus kredito augimas
5. Toksiniai kredito procesai
6. Finansializacija ir nelygybė
7. Renta, rentiers, palūkanų esmė
8. Išvados + pasiūlymai

Kredito svarba
• Bent jau nuo Marx‘o M-C-M‘ žinoma, kodėl pinigų
kiekis (ir skola modernioje pinigų sistemoje) turi
augti, kad ekonomika vystytųsi.
• Priešingu atveju, nebus, kad M‘ > M, o tai pagrindinis
įmonių tikslas...
• Tą teigė Shumpeter‘is, jo mokinys Minsky (1982):
“[i]t follows that over a period during which economic
growth takes place, at least some sectors finance a part of
their spending by emitting debt or selling assets.”
Kreditas Indėliai
Daugiau
transakcijų
Didesnis
BVP (galbūt)

Kredito svarba
• Federal Reserve Board (2013):
“analysts have found that over long periods of time there
has been a fairly close relationship between the growth of
debt of the nonfinancial sectors and aggregate economic
activity.”
• Schumpeter (1934):
“ the new combination of means of production and credit
are the fundamental phenomena of economic
development.“
• Ang (2009) apibendrina empirines studijas:
– paprastai daroma regresija tarp kredito/BVP santykio
ir BVP augimo tempo;
– išvada: kredito augimas gali būti susijęs su našumą
didinančiom investicijomis.

Mainstream treatment of debt
 Bernanke (2000), Essays on the Great Depression, p. 24, on Irving Fisher’s
(1933) debt deflation theory (Fisher, 1933):
– Fisher’s idea was less influential in academic circles, though, because of the
counterargument that debt-deflation represented no more than a redistribution from one
group (debtors) to another (creditors). Absent implausibly large differences in marginal
spending propensities among the groups, it was suggested, pure redistributions should
have no significant macro-economic effects…
 Paul Krugman: “(Steve) Keen then goes on to assert that lending is, by
definition (at least as I understand it), an addition to aggregate demand. I
guess I don’t get that at all. If I decide to cut back on my spending and stash
the funds in a bank, which lends them out to someone else, this doesn’t
have to represent a net increase in demand. Yes, in some (many) cases
lending is associated with higher demand, because resources are being
transferred to people with a higher propensity to spend; but Keen seems to
be saying something else, and I’m not sure what. I think it has something to
do with the notion that creating money = creating demand, but again that
isn’t right in any model I understand.”
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/27/minksy-and-methodology-
wonkish/

Kreditas: svarbu kam
• Marx‘as (Capital, 30 sk. “Money-Capital and Real Capital” išskyrė:
– “credit, whose volume grows with the growing volume of value of
production” versus “the plethora of moneyed capital —a separate
phenomenon alongside industrial production”.
• Schumpeter‘is (1917) išskyrė:
– ‘capital markets’ for stocks, bonds, mortgages, real estate and land
versus ‘circulating money’ in the real sector.
• Keynes‘as (1930) išskyrė:
– ‘money in the financial circulations’ versus ‘money in the industrial
circulations’.
• Tobin‘as (1984):
– “… we are throwing more and more of our resources, including the
cream of our youth, into financial activities remote from the
production of goods and services”.
• Minsky (1987):
– ‘money manager capitalism’ (kylantis 1980-ais 1990-ais), undermined
capitalism’s viability by redirecting investment to financial, not real
investments and capital formation.
• etc.

• Ši funkcinė kredito krypčių diferencijacija iš esmės
IGNORUOJMA vyraujančių neoklasikinių ekonomistų
• Gaila, bet iš esmės ir ECB: kreditas auga? Valio! O koks to
kredito poveikis ekonominiam augimui/užimtumui...?

• BIS: nukrypimai nuo prieškrizinio (menkai su gamyba
susijusio) kredito (finansializacinio) trendo? Blogai!

• Neortodoksai (Richard Werner, Michael
Hudson, Dirk Bezemer, Thomas Palley etc.):
– pilna kredito priemonių, kurios nieko bendra
neturi su gamyba;
– daugiausiai tai būsto kreditai, firmų skolinimasis
ne gamybai vystyti/užimtumui didinti;
• Funkcinė kredito klasifikacija padėtų paaiškinti
tariamas „mįsles“

• Bet kreditas gali būti “išsunkiantis” ekonomiką (ir čia
net neina kalba apie lupikiškus „greituosius
kreditus“)!!!
• Palley, Epstein, Hein... : “Financialization“
• Benjamin Friedman (2009): “an important question—
which no one seems interested in addressing—is what
fraction of the economy’s total returns … is absorbed
up front by the financial industry.”
• Randall Wray: 40% JAV korporacijų pelno finansų
sektoriuje? „Tai – vagystė“.

III. (GERO/BLOGO)
KREDITO POVEIKIS

Geras/blogas kreditas
Kredito „atspalviai“
„Geras“: gamybai vystyti „Vidutinis“: vartojimui
„Prastas“: esamam
(finansiniam ar NT) turtui
pirkti (akcijų buybacks,
leveraged buyouts...)
„Blogas“: Ponzi finansavimas
(paskolų evergreening...)

Gero/blogo kredito poveikis
 Kreditas gamybai vystyti koreliuoja su nominaliu BVP
 Kreditas būstui daugiau koreliuoja su būsto kainom
Šaltinis: Bezemer (2012)

Kredito ciklai: skirtingas poveikis skolai
 Kreditas gamybai:
 1. įmonė skolinasi investicijoms, algoms ir apyvartinėms
 2. parduoda pagaminta produktą, grąžina kreditą
 = (mikro) įmonės skola nelinkusi augti greičiau už gamybą,
 = (makro) skolos/BVP santykis neauga, svyruoja ~1
 Kreditas būstui:
 1. NŪ perka būstą
 2. palūkanų ir pagrindinės sumos mokėjimai sumažina NŪ
išlaidas kitoms prekėms
 = (mikro) ilgam padidėja NŪ skola
 = (makro) didėja skolos/BVP santykis
 = (makro) ekonomika „apsunksta“ nuo skolos, nes palūkanų
maržos ir palūkanų už atsiradusius indėlių gavėjai –
turtingesni NŪ
 = (makro) didėja finansų sistemos trapumas, ypač po
kredito/NT kainų bumų.

“The great mortgaging”
• http://voxeu.org/article/great-mortgaging

Kredito ciklai: skirtingas poveikis skolai
 Kreditas vartojimui:
 yra gana brangus, bet bent jau yra gamybinio
sektoriaus pajamos
 bet irgi apsunkina ekonomiką, nes vietoje algų
didėjimo „let them eat credit“ (R. Rajan)

Kapitalo pelno „ekonomika“
 Bezemer (2012):
 Loans for investment in asset and property markets are different,
and this accounts for their impact on debt-to-GDP ratios.
 The underlying reason is that such FIRE-sector investment by itself
is a zero-sum game: for someone to make a capital gain, someone
else must either give up income or go into debt (or both):
 If a loan is invested in the financial and property markets, this will push
up the price of financial assets and create asset wealth for the owners.
 This capital gain is realized upon sale, and after repaying the loan, the
investor may hold a profit.
 But at the other end of the sale transaction will be a new investor, who
either took out a loan or drained liquidity from the real sector in order
to finance the purchase.
 In aggregate, the total realized capital gain will be equal to the
combined increase in indebtedness and in liquidity taken from
the real sector in order to finance the increased asset price.
 The assets may be traded many times by, and each time the asset
may increase in value – but in aggregate, the debt and/or drain
from the real sector grows in parallel.
 Willem Buiter: „Housing Wealth Isn't Wealth“

Finansų sektoriaus santykinis augimas
 Bezemer (2012):
 So financial markets can grow relative to GDP by
absorbing more liquidity created in the real sector,
or by increasing indebtedness.
 Either is unsustainable in the sense that it must,
with axiomatic certainty, at some point end.
 Still, such (ultimately) unsustainable debt growth
may be kept going over decades by expanding the
stock of financial assets and instruments relative to
the size of the economy.

 Taigi, bendrojo kredito augimo poveikio
ekonominiam augimui ženklas a priori yra
neaiškus (ambiguous)
 Priklauso nuo:
 skolos/BVP santykio
 kredito funkcinės krypties
 Prie kokio kredito/BVP santykio tikėtis
maksimalaus ekonominio augimo?
 R. Werner (2005): visas kreditas C = Cr + Cf
 r – realiam sektoriui; f – finansiniam

 Regresija:
ΔBVP/BVP = k + a(C/BVP) + bX + e
 a atspindi d(C/BVP) efektą d(ΔBVP/BVP)
a = d(ΔBVP/BVP) / d(C/BVP) = d(ΔBVP) / d(C)
 d(C) yra svertinis vidurkis:
a = w1*[d(ΔBVP) / d(Cr)] + w2*[d(ΔBVP) / d(Cf)]
 Ilgu laikotarpiu d(Cr) iš esmės lygus d(BVP), o
d(Cf) menkai koreliuoja su d(BVP) – pvz., per
housing wealth channel, bet elastingumas ~0,1.
 Tada a yra maksimalus, kai w2 ≈ 0; Cf ≈ 0, o
C/BVP ≈ 100%, ką, atrodo, patvirtina ir
istoriniai duomenys (žr. toliau)

 Easterly et al (2000): volatility of growth tends
to decrease and then increase with increasing
financial depth.
 Mapping the credit-to-GDP ratio on a
horizontal axis against the volatility of growth
on the vertical axis, they find that the turning
point - the bottom of the U – is around value 1
(or 100%) for the credit-to-GDP ratio.

• Arcand et al (2011), ‘Too Much Finance?’,
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp121
61.pdf: neigiamas NŪ+F kredito/BVP santykio
poveikis ekonominiam augimui nuo ~100% BVP

• Cecchetti et al (2011) ‘The Real Effects of Debt’,
http://www.bis.org/publ/othp16.pdf:
– at moderate levels, debt improves welfare and enhances growth. But
high levels can be damaging. When does debt go from good to bad?
– beyond a certain level, debt is a drag on growth...
– ... for corporate debt, it is around 90% of GDP.

Kur eina „prastasis“ kreditas
„Prastasis“ ir
„blogasis“ kreditas
Skola finansuojamas
M&A bumas
Akcijų buy-backs Būsto bumas Commons privatizacija
Ponzi finansavimas
(paskolų evergreening,
zombiai bankai ir įmonės)

Procesas: M&A
Iniciatorius:
agresyvus
perėmimas
Investicinis
bankas gauna
riebius
komisinius
Perimta įmonė
užskolinama,
lėšos plaukia
bankams
Įmonė sumažina
įsipareigojimus
darbuotojams,
mažina I, R&D
Iniciatorius
perparduoda
įmonę su dideliu
pelnu

Procesai: akcijų bumai/reformos/buy-backs
Kredito
augimas, pvz.
būstui
Būsto
pardavėjai,
statytojai gauna
pinigų
Dalis jų
nukeliauja į
akcijų rinką
+ Fully-funded
pensijų
„reformos“
Akcijų rinkos
kyla, 1% turtėja
CEO
kompensuojami
stock options
CEO atsiranda
negeros
paskatos pakelt
akcijų kainą
CEO
nusprendžia
supirkti savo
įmonės akcijas
Tą daro
paprastai už
paskolas
Įmonė
užskolinama,
CEO praturtėja

Procesai: būsto kainų bumas
Bankai
(dereguliavimas,
Basel w) etc.:
pradinis impulsas
Būsto kainos
didėja
Kaimynas
praturtėjo iš
būsto
perpardavimo
Įsilieja kiti,
norintys kapitalo
pelno
Burbulas, bankų
pelnai, bonusai,
ūkio išsunkimas,
finansų krizė...

Procesas: commons privatizacija
Bendruomeninis
nemokamai
naudojamas
turtas
Atsiranda
gudrutis
„viarslininkas“
Bendruomeninis
turtas
privatizuojamas
Banko paskola,
šlagbaumas
(tollbooth)
Renta
viarslininkui,
palūkanos bankui,
visuomenė moka

Procesas: Ponzi finansavimas
• In Italy, where two decades of economic stagnation have created a long line of barely
breathing companies, Feltrinelli, one of the country’s largest booksellers, stands out.
• Since 2012, the company has chalked up three consecutive years of losses totaling
nearly 11 million euros ($12.4 million).
• Even so, late last year, Feltrinelli was able to secure a fresh €50 million line of credit
from a syndicate that included two of Italy’s largest banks, UniCredit and Intesa
Sanpaolo, at an interest rate below what top-rated companies in Europe were paying.
• As Italy and Europe more broadly struggle to come to grips with an escalating problem
with bad loans, a new paper by economists connected to the Center for Economic
Policy Research, a European policy shop, highlights the extent to which Italy’s main
banks — known to be the weakest in the eurozone in terms of cash reserves — have
stepped up their lending to the country’s most troubled companies.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/business/dealbook/italian-banks-continue-to-lend-to-stagnant-companies-as-debt-pile-
mounts.html?action=click&contentCollection=DealBook&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article
Finansializacija
Privačios skolos
augimas negali
tęstis be galo
Ekonominio
augimo krizė
Blogos paskolos
Bankai jas
evergreenin‘a,
„teismo valanda“
stumiama tolyn

Procesas: Ponzi finansavimas
• Viral V. Acharya„, Tim Eisert„, Christian Eufinger, and Christian Hirsch (2014) Whatever it takes: The
Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy,
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~sternfin/vacharya/public_html/pdfs/Acharya%20et%20al%20What
ever%20it%20takes.pdf
• On July 26, 2012 the ECB’s president Mario Draghi announced to do “whatever it takes” to
preserve the Euro and subsequently launched the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT)
Program, which led to a significant increase in the value of sovereign bonds issued by European
periphery countries.
• As a result, the OMT announcement indirectly recapitalized periphery country banks due to
their significant holdings of these bonds. However, the regained stability of the European
banking sector has not fully transferred into economic growth.
• We show that this development can at least partially be explained by zombie lending motives of
banks that still remained undercapitalized after the OMT announcement. While banks that
benefited from the announcement increased their overall loan supply, this supply was mostly
targeted towards low-quality firms with pre-existing lending relationships with these banks.
• As a result, there was no positive impact on real economic activity like employment or
investment. Instead, these firms mainly used the newly acquired funds to build up cash
reserves.
• Finally, we document that creditworthy firms in industries with a prevalence of zombie firms
suffered significantly from the credit misallocation, which slowed down the economic recovery.

VI. FINANSIALIZACIJA IR
NELYGYBĖ

Naujas, netvarus ciklas
Stagnant median
real wages;
widening
inequality
AD supported by
borrowing/asset
price inflation
Full employment
abandoned
Sluggish
investment growth
Slower
productivity
growth

Financializacija: pajamų perskirstymas
Source: Palley, T. (2013), Financialization, Palgrave.
GDP by Income
Capital
+
Profits of financial
sector +
Profits of non-
financial sector
-
Labour
-
Managers' share
+
Workers' share
-

Finansializacija ir nelygybė
Source: Bezemer, D. (2012).

VII. RENTA, RENTIER,
PALŪKANŲ ESMĖ

Ne primityvusis „turtingi“ vs. „vargšai“
Dideles pajamas gaunantys
vs.
Nedideles pajamas gaunantys
Nepelnytai Pelnytai
Dideles pajamas gaunantys
Nedideles pajamas gaunantys

Renta, taupymas, investicijos
• Michael Hudson:
– renta – tai ne pajamos
– bet Nacionalinėse sąskaitose tokio išskyrimo nėra
– atseit, „visos pajamos vienodai gerbtinos“
• Neortodoksai:
– moderniose ekonomikose palūkanos – ne „auka už susilaikymą“ (nuo grūdų sėklos suvalgymo)
– taupymas (S) – tiesiog „ne vartojimas“, tas mažina paklausa, potencialiai ir I
– S, I – daro skirtingi žmonės
– S = I ex post, nes kažkas prarado darbą dėl tavo taupymo, ir negalėjo įgyvendinti savo S plano...
• Didžioji dalis šiuolaikinės privačios pinigų gaminimo mašinos generuoja rentą
• Teigiamos realios palūkanos už indėlius – irgi renta (žr. kitą skaidę, Keynes GT (1936))
• Economists routinely estimate ‘public seigniorage income’, or the amount of money
the government earns from its monopoly on issuing bank notes. However they do not
estimate ‘private seigniorage’, or the amount of money banks make by issuing deposit
money. This is remarkable as, in the Eurozone, banks create about 94% of all money.
• Using the concept of ‘private seigniorage’, an upper limit can be calculated for the Euro
Area of (at this moment) about €300 billion, or €1,000 per Euro Area inhabitant, for
these rents. www.worldeconomicsassociation.org/newsletterarticles/private-
seigniorage/

Keynes‘as apie palūkanas (GT, 1936)
• There is, however, a second, much more fundamental inference from our argument
which has a bearing on the future of inequalities of wealth; namely, our theory of
the rate of interest.
• The justification for a moderately high rate of interest has been found hitherto in the
necessity of providing a sufficient inducement to save. But we have shown that the
extent of effective saving is necessarily determined by the scale of investment and
that the scale of investment is promoted by a low rate of interest, provided that we
do not attempt to stimulate it in this way beyond the point which corresponds to full
employment. Thus it is to our best advantage to reduce the rate of interest to that
point relatively to the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital at which there is
full employment.
• Now, though this state of affairs would be quite compatible with some measure of
individualism, yet it would mean the euthanasia of the rentier, and, consequently,
the euthanasia of the cumulative oppressive power of the capitalist to exploit the
scarcity-value of capital. Interest today rewards no genuine sacrifice, any more than
does the rent of land. The owner of capital can obtain interest because capital is
scarce, just as the owner of land can obtain rent because land is scarce.
www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/general-theory/ch24.htm

Fair interest rate
• Kuodis (2014): What level of real interest rates is fair? Post Keynesians argue
that 0%, mainly because “profit, not interest, is the reward for enterprise”.
• John Smithin ("The theory of interest rates", an entry by John Smithin, in
Philip Arestis, Malcolm Sawyer (eds.) (2006), A Handbook of Alternative
Monetary Economics, Edward Elgar):
– the real value of existing sums of money, representing past effort in the form of work and
enterprise, would be preserved, but there would be no increase in their value arising from
the mere possession of money. Further accumulation would only be possible by
contributing further work or enterprise, or assuming further risk. This state of affairs
would not, however, really constitute the ‘euthanasia of the rentier’ (Keynes, 1936), as it
is not the nominal interest rate that is set at zero but the real rate. Accumulated financial
capital at least retains its original real value.
• Real interest rate is mostly a distributional parameter, dear
CBs!!!

Kodėl realios palūkanos t/b ~0%
• Ulrich’as Bindseil’is (ECB) savo knygose apie pinigų politiką ir jos
įgyvendinimą teigia, kad r > 0, nes kapitalo reali grąža paprastai > 0, todėl
galimas arbitražas.
• Galima sugalvoti situaciją, kada fiziškai taip: medis priauga apimties
kiekvienais metais
• Tačiau, jo pardavimo kaina po metų yra nežinoma, todėl toks arbitražas g/b
nuostolingas.
• Keynes‘as: firmos susiduria su nominalia, o ne realia problema, spręsdamos
ar investuoti į kapitalą – nominalios pajamos t/b didesnės už kaštus, o pelnas
turi padengti nominalias palūkanas bankui.

Nepersiskolinę, bet toksinų daugėja

Išvados
• Ką matome/jaučiame? Tai, kad LT privatus sektorius nėra persiskolinęs –
geras dalykas, reikia tai vertinti/saugoti (tiesa, tą procesą nutraukė krizė).
• Kredito poveikis, einant finansializacijos epochai, tampa vis silpnesnis:
– reikia vis daugiau „vaistų/narkotikų“, kad paciento būklė „pagerėtų“ – seniau reikėdavo 1%
kredito pokyčio, kad BVP padidėtų 1%, dabar artėjama prie 4:1.
– pagerėjimas būna laikinas, nes „dozė“ apsunkina (eina ne gamybai vystyti, o toksinėm
kryptim)
– šis procesas nėra tvarus
– didėjanti nelygybė yra pasekmė
– to politines pasekmes jau pradedam jausti (JAV, Europoj...)
– kuo tai baigsis?
• ECB ir NCB-ai monetarinėje/makroprudencinėj analizėje turėtų labiau žiūrėti
funkcinio kredito augimo pasiskirstymo (pilnavertė statistika + kredito
toksiškumo indeksas?)...
– ... ir skirtingai tuo džiaugtis
– ... reaguoti politikos priemonėm, ... stengtis nespirti problemų kamuolio toliau
– ... šios probleminės sritys ir yra tos, kurioms reikia STRUKTŪRINIŲ REFORMŲ, apie kurias
taip mėgsta plepėti (Europos) politikai
***Pabaiga***

Raimondas Kuodis apie finansializaciją

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