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RISK & RETURN ANALYSIS OF
BOND MARKET IN PAKISTAN
Faculty Advisor:
Ms. Tazeen Arsalan
Researchers:
Abdul Hadi Khanani
Armoghan Moin
Qandeel Fatima Memon
Samra Javed
Syed Jahanzeb Haider
Yamna Shumas
Zoya Talat
SPECIAL THANKS TO CDC
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To Analyze
The Risk And
Return Of
Bond Market
in Pakistan
To Analyze
The Factors
affecting
Return on
Bond Market
in Pakistan
OUTLINE
 Introduction
 Bond Market Importance
 Bond Market in Pakistan
 Bond Timeline & History
 Future Prospect
 Literature Review
 Methodology
 Findings
 Discussions
DEFINITIONS
Bonds
A bond is a debt investment in which an investor
loans money to an entity (typically corporate or
governmental) which borrows the funds for
a defined period of time at a variable or fixed
interest rate. Owners of bonds are debt holders, or
creditors, of the issuer.
 Bond Market:
The bond market – also called the debt market
or credit market – is a financial market in which the
participants are provided with the issuance and
trading of debt securities.
DIMENSIONS OF BOND MARKETS
BUYERS
-Companies
-Government
-Individuals
ISSUERS
-Companies
-Government
IMPORTANCE OF BOND MARKETS
BUYERS ISSUERS
Steady income Cost Effective
Small investors Competition to banks
Diversification Alternative means of raising debt capital
Central Banks issue bonds to:
• develop infrastructure of the country
•Invest to earn return
•To monitor currency value
• to control money supply, and subsequently
•To control inflation
BENEFITS OF BOND MARKET ON
ECONOMY
Avenue to invest
Direct competition to banks
Good indicator of wider macro- level
signals
Money supply is absorbed
Inflation is controlled
Improvement in currency
Foreign portfolio investment
NEED FOR DEBT MARKET
 Microeconomic Role
• Local Borrowing – Elimination of maturity
mismatch
• Foreign Borrowing – Twin Mismatch
(Maturity, FOREX Risk)
• Facilitates Development of Risk Management
Instruments
 Macroeconomic Role
• Alternative Source of Borrowing
• Credit Risk Dispersion
• Risk – Possible Contagion Effect
TYPES OF BONDS
2)Government
bonds
• Pakistan
Investment
Bonds
• US Special
Dollar Bonds
• WAPDA
Bonds
• National
Saving Bonds
• Sukuk
1)Corporate
Bonds
Engro Bonds
HISTORY OF BOND MARKET IN
PAKISTAN
1960 To cover non-banking segment, Prize Bonds were introduced followed by various
NSS Schemes.
1990s Market based Government Securities came into existence.
1992 Introduction of long term paper (FIB).
Long term yield curve emerged giving opportunity to the corporate to come up
with instruments.
1995 Foundation of the corporate bond market was laid with the first issue of Term
Final Certificates (TFC).
2000 Introduction of Pakistan Investment Bonds. (PIBs).
Long term instruments gained momentum.
SBP introduced selective Primary Dealer System (PD).
2001 KIBOR/KIBID rates were introduced to provide inter-bank call money curve.
2001-05 Corporate Bond market was vibrant, adding approximately PKR 65 Billion issuance or
98% of total issuance to date.
2005 SBP issued guidelines on Forward Rate Agreement (FRA), Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and
Currency Options.
2007 Introduction of Engro bonds of Rs 4 billion.
2008 Introduction of GoP Ijara Sukuk.
2009-10 The Government raised Rs. 64.31 billion, as against the target of Rs. 60
billion, through the auctions of Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs).
A total of four tranches of GoP Ijara Sukuk had been issued.
Bond Automated Trading System (BATS), a new debt market platform was
introduced. It allows electronic order entry and matching facility, which will
provide a more efficient and transparent way to trade debt market
securities.
April 12, 2009 KSE and MUFAP joined hands for the development corporate debt market
Trading – KSE, Settlement – NCC, Custodian – CDC
TFCs to be traded through BATS in the first phase
Government securities to be traded in the 2nd phase
2010-11 Development of an electronic fixed income trading platform provided by
Bloomberg called E-BOND : Electronic Bond Trading Platform.
2012 According to SBP and SECP, the domestic bonds outstanding were 30
percent of the GDP, which mostly consisted of government bonds, as the
corporate bonds market was less developed.
2014 Pakistani bonds revived investor interest Corporate market came under
investors focus.
Pakistan rose $2 billion through Euro Bonds.
2015 Pakistan issued $500 million Euro Bonds.
October 2016 Pakistan rose $1 billion through Sukuk bonds.
PROBLEMS IN BOND MARKET OF
PAKISTAN
 High administration cost
 Lack of Technological developments – transparency
and liquidity
 Weak Market Infrastructure
 Expectations of inflation and frequent devaluation of
PKR hindered the foreign investment
 Lack of Benchmark in the market – Valuation
problems (PIB 3,5, 10 years)
 Inactive Secondary Market, absence of central price
discovery mechanics/platform
RECOMMENDATIONS
The role of SBP needs to be changed.
Mandatory for SBP to list it.
 Weak policies and unplanned structure
needs mass improvement.
Administration costs can be easily and
effectively handled.
Develop it to avoid monopoly.
Need for Technological developments –
transparency and liquidity
LITERATURE REVIEW
Title Author Year Sample Result
A Study on
the Impact of
Selected
Monetary,
Fiscal,
Economic
Variables on
the Indian
Bond Market
Dr. R.
Himachalapa
thy,
Rakshitha
2015 Country: India
Sample: Govt bonds
Time Span: 2005 to
2015
Significant relationship between
yield rates and bank rate, repo
rate, reverse repo, Index of
Industrial Production, Wholesale
Price Index and GDP
Positive relationship between
yield rates and bank rate, repo
rate, reverse repo rate, Index of
Industrial Production, Wholesale
Price Index and GDP
Information
Content of
Yield Spread:
Economic
Growth of
Malaysia
Joanne Yen-
Ei Keki and
Kim-Leng
Goh
2015 Country: Malaysia
Sample: 10 year
Malaysian govt
security and 3 month
T-Bills
Time Span:1997 to
2012
Significant relationship between
yield spread and economic
activity
Positive Relationship between
yield and economic factors
Title Author Year Sample Result
A Comparative
Analysis of
Returns of
Various Financial
Asset Classes in
South Africa, A
Triumph of
Bonds
C. Auret
and R.
Vivian
2014 Country: South Africa
Sample: Equities, bonds and
cash in South Africa
Time Span: 1986 to 2013
No significant relationship
between the returns of
equities over long bonds
even before adjusting for
risk
Exchange Rate
Risk and Local
Currency
Sovereign Bond
Yields in
Emerging
Markets
Blaise
Gadanecz
, Ken
Miyajima,
Chang
Shu
2014 Country: 20 economies
Sample: 5 year local
currency sovereign bonds of
20 economies
Time Span: 2005 to 2013
Significant relationship
between exchange rate
risk of emerging market
economies and local
currency sovereign bond
yields
Positive relationship
Title Author Year Sample Result
The Interest rate
Effects on
Government
Debt Maturity
Jagjit S
Chadha, Philip
Turner and
Zampolli
2013 Country: US
Sample: 5 & 10 year T-Bills
Time Span: 1976 to 2006
Significant relationship
between dividend
yield, CPI and GDP
Positive relationship
An Empirical
Analysis of the
Performance of
the Ghana
Stock Exchange
and Treasury
Bills
Samuel Antwi 2012 Country: Ghana
Sample: Annual returns of
the Ghana Stock Exchange
all-share index and
Treasury bill
Time Span: 1990 to 2010
Significant relationship
between risk and
return of equity market
and significant
relationship between
risk and return of debt
market.
Positive relationship
Title Author Year Sample Result
The Impact of
Changes in
Financial and
Macroeconomics
Variable on Term
Structure of
Interest Rates in
Malaysia
Ong Tze
San, Lai
Yoke and
Heng
2012 Country: Malaysia
Sample: One and 10 year
Malaysian govt securities
Time Span:1997 to 2009
Money supply and current
account have significant
relationship on bond yield
Money supply has a positive
relationship with bond yield,
whereas current account has a
negative relationship with bond
yield
Fiscal Deficits,
Public Debt, and
Sovereign Bond
Yields
Baldacci
and
Kumar
2010 Country: 31 advanced and
emerging market
economies
Sample: Fiscal deficit and
government debt in 31
countries
Time Span: 1980 to 2008
Higher deficits and public debt
lead to a significant increase in
long-term interest rates
Positive relationship between
large fiscal deficits and public
debts and sovereign bond
yields
Factors
Influencing Yield
Spreads of the
Malaysian Bonds
Norliza
Ahmad
and
Joriah
Muhamm
ad
2009 Country: Malaysia
Sample: Govt securities
and corporate bonds
Time Span: 2001 to 2008
CPI and interest rates have a
significant relationship with the
yield spread of Malaysian
Government Securities
Positive relationships
FACTORS IDENTIFIED THROUGH
LITERATURE REVIEW
Risk
Interest Rate
Fiscal Deficit
Exchange Rate
GDP
METHODOLOGY
 Interviews
 Literature Review
RESEARCH TECHNIQUE
QUALITATIVE
QUANTITATIVE
 Regression of Bonds’ Data & External Factors’ data
run on Stata
VARIABLES
 PIB 3, 5 & 10 YEAR BONDS
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
 Standard Deviation
 Interest Rate
 Fiscal Deficit
 Gross Domestic Product
 Exchange Rate
 Reuters, World Bank & Pakistan Economic Survey
TIME PERIOD
 2005 to 2015 (11 years)
DATA COLLECTION
REGRESSION MODEL
The following regressions are performed in our study-
 Pooled
 Fixed
 Random
 Four models are developed to check the
relationship.
EQUATION
 Model (1 – All Bonds,
2 – Three Year PIBs
3 – Five Year PIBs
4 – Ten Year PIBs)
 Bond Yields = f (Risk, fiscal deficit, interest rate,
exchange rate, GDP)
OR
 Y = βo + β1X1(Risk) + β2X2(Fiscal Deficit) +
β3X3(GDP) +β4X4(Interest Rate) +
β5X5(Exchange Rate)
There exists a Positive relationship between Risk and
bond yield.
There exists a positive relationship between interest
rate and bond yield.
There exists a negative relationship between exchange
rate and bond yield.
There exists a negative relationship between GDP and
bond yield.
There exists a positive relationship between fiscal
deficit and bond yield.
Hypothesis
RESULTS
DESCRIPTIVE OF MODEL 1(ALL BONDS)
Variable
Mean Standard
Deviation
Min Max Observations
Yield overall 11.30100. 1.807156. 7.622. 13.474. N = 33
between 0.388582. 10.925. 11.701. n = 3
within 1.778202. 7.998. 13.782. T = 11
Risk overall 0.05345. .2E49259 -0.349. 0.744. N = 33
between 0.020821. 0.033. 0.074. n = 3
within 0.214231. -0.370. 0.723. T = 11
Interest
Rate
overall 0.06585. 0.018400. 0.026. 0.087. N = 33
between 0.000000. 0.066. 0.066. n = 3
within 0.018400. 0.026. 0.087. T = 11
Exchange
Rate
overall 0.06446. 0.058037. -0.005. 0.161. N = 33
between 0.000000. 0.064. 0.064. n = 3
within 0.058037. -0.005. 0.161. T = 11
Gross overall 0.04156. 0.018332. 0.016. 0.077. N = 33
Domestic between 0.000000. 0.000. 0.042. n = 3
Product within 0.018332. 0.016. 0.077. T = 11
Fd Overall 0.05645. 0.014642. 0.033. 0.082. N = 33
between 0.000000. 0.056. 0.056. n = 3
within 0.014642. 0.033. 0.082. T = 11
Independe
nt
Variables
Coef. Std.
Err.
T P>t Coef. Std. Err. T P>t Coef. Std. Err. z P>z
Risk
3.9274. 0.721 5.44 0.000 4.2147
0.553816 7.61 0.000 3.927356 0.721953 5.44 0.000
Interest
Rate
81.8439 16.49 4.96 0.000 86.083
12.61:639 6.83 0.000 81.84388 16.49433 4.96 0.000
Exchange
Rate
-4.3706. 2.442 -1.79 0.085 -4.5727
1.86271 -2.45 0.021 -4.3706 2.442986 -1.79 0.074
Gross
Domestic
Product
-24.1592. 14.57 -1.66 0.108 -21.491
11.124 -1.93 0.065 -24.1592 14.57399 -1.66 0.097
Fiscal
Deficit
11.8870. 11.46 1.04 0.308 11.791 8.736152 1.35 0.189 11.89698 11.46075 1.04 0.299
_cons
6.2719. 1.665 3.77 0.001 5.8835 1.272432 4.62 0.000 6.271927 1.665641 3.77 0.000
Pooled Regression Fixed Effect Random Effect
Adj R square 0.898 R square R square
Within 0.9433 Within 0.9428
Overall 0.8975 Overall 0.8980
F test 47.53 F test 83.2
Model 1 (All bonds included)
MODEL 2 ( 3 YEAR PIB BOND)
Independent
Variables
Coef. Std. Err. T P>t
Risk 4.1242. 1.015386 4.06 0.010
Gross Domestic
Product
-32.7755. 24.33905 -1.35 0.236
Interest Rate 96.6465. 28.1523 3.43 0.019
Exchange Rate -6.3025. 4.282961 -1.47 0.201
Fiscal Deficit 7.7628. 19.86533 0.39 0.712
_cons 5.5210. 2.8443616 1.94 0.110
Pooled Regression
Adj R square 0.9502
F test 19.08
MODEL 3 ( 5 YEAR PIB BOND)
Independent
Variables
Coef. Std. Err. T P>t
Risk 5.058. 0.8662832 5.84 0.002
Interest Rate 99.17184 - 18.60818 5.33 0.003
Exchange Rate
-5.195. 2.655264
1.96 0.108
GDP
-13.354. 16.17758
0.83 0.447
Fiscal Deficit 12.648. 12.40545 1.02 0.355
_cons 4.601.202 1.87641 2.45 0.058
Pooled Regression
Adj R square 0.9502
F test 19.08
MODEL 4 ( 10 YEAR PIB BOND)
Pooled Regression
Adj R square 0.9937
F test 316.78
Independent
Variables
Coef. Std. Err. T P>t
Risk 6.327. 0.4194798 15.08 0.000
Gross Domestic
Product
8.071. 6.068317 1.33 0.241
Interest Rate 98.758. 6.831279 14.46 0.000
Exchange Rate -3.417. 0.8774736 -3.89 0.011
Fiscal Deficit 11.578. 4.201141 2.76 0.040
_cons 4.187. 0.6747056 6.21 0.002
DISCUSSION
HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A POSITIVE
RELATIONSHIP WITH STANDARD DEVIATION (RISK)
 Results shows that as risk increase return increase
 Risk is a measure of volatility
 Bonds with high volatility risk have higher yield
 Bonds with low volatility have lower yield
 PIBS are sovereign bonds, it doesn’t have liquidity, default risk.
HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A POSITIVE
RELATIONSHIP WITH STANDARD DEVIATION
(RISK)
 PIBs have inflation risk and interest rate risk
 Coupon payments are fixed it doesn’t increase with inflation
YIELD HAS A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH
INTEREST RATE
 Interest rate is an important factor and affects returns of all
investments
 Increase in interest rate increase a return on bonds
 Bond yield is directly correlated with interest rate as interest rate
increases bond yield increase and coupon payment on bonds
increase.
 As interest rate increases the prices of previously issued bond
decrease as new bonds would offer higher yield.
HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A NEGATIVE
RELATIONSHIP WITH GDP
 According to academic theories increase in GDP is due to
increase total investment
 It increases demand pull inflation
 To overcome demand pull inflation government increases
interest rate which increase bond yield.
 In Pakistan bond yield and GDP have negative relationship
HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A NEGATIVE
RELATIONSHIP WITH GDP
 Pakistan has done huge borrowings from IMF and is moving
towards new era of growth due to CPEC.
 Foreigners and locals are investing huge amount of money in
mega projects
 Government is decreasing interest rate to encourage investment
and discourage fixed deposits
 It gives incentive to companies to invest in business leading to
increase in investment component leading in increase in GDP.
HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A NEGATIVE
RELATIONSHIP WITH EXCHANGE RATE
 Pakistan has done huge borrowing from IMF and World Bank to
overcome its fiscal deficit
 Under current IMF program Pakistan is forced to devalue its
local currency and decrease its interest rate
 It would increase money supply in an economy and discourage
deposits in saving account to encourage investment in an
economy
 The purpose is to increase growth through investment
HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP
WITH FISCAL DEFICIT
 Bond Yield and fiscal deficit has positive relationship
 Fiscal deficit increases ,yield increase.
 In Pakistan government tries to fill a gap of fiscal deficit by
issuing debts
 Fiscal deficit increase government increase an interest rate
 It attracts investors to buy the extra debt and limit the money
supply in economy
HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP
WITH FISCAL DEFICIT
 Banks heavily invest in T-Bills and PIBS.
 Same was happening in 2008.
 Creates “Crowding Out” effect by borrowing more money and
leaves less money for private sector
 Higher interest rates also can reduce the private sector's demand
for capital
 It reduce the demand for commercial and retail borrowing
SUMMARY OF RESULTS
Variables Relationship
Risk +
Exchange Rate -
Interest Rate +
Fiscal Deficit +
GDP -
LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
 Only 3, 5 and 10 year PIB Bonds are included in
the study
 The Research is done only on Pakistani Bonds.
 Only 11 years of data is has been included i.e. 2005
to 2015.
SUMMARY OF STOCK & BOND RESULTS
Variables Stocks Bonds
Risk + +
Exchange Rate - -
Inflation - Not Applicable
Foreign Direct Investment + Not Applicable
Interest Rate + +
Money Supple + Not Applicable
GDP + -
Fiscal Deficit +
INVESTOR’S MANUAL
KNOW WHAT INVESTMENT PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE:
 Ordinary shares of listed companies
 Unit trust schemes
 Mutual funds certificates
 Corporate bonds i.e., Term Finance Certificates
(TFCs)
 Government securities i.e., Federal Investment
 Bonds(FIBs), Pakistan Investment Bond (PIBs)
 Special US Dollar Bonds
STRATEGIES FOR INVESTMENT.
 Top down
 Bottom up
 Value or growth
 Large or small cap
 Ethical investment and technical analysis
TIPS FOR INVESTING WISELY
When trading in the Stock Market, one should avoid:
 Greed
 Making the same mistake twice
 Following the crowd
 Putting all your ‘eggs in one basket’
 Using rumors as tips
 Emotions; being emotional can effect reasoning
 Traders should use research backed by
fundamental reasoning.
 Impatience
 Over borrowing
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS FOR INVESTORS
 How Much Money Can You Afford to Invest?
 How Do You Want to Invest?
Questionnaire Analysis
RELIGION
59, 98%
1, 2%
Muslim Non Muslim
AGE
30%
22%
13%
35%
<30 years 30-39 years 40-49 years 50 and above
QUALIFICATIONS
39%
23%
38%
University/College Professional Both University/Professional
YEARS WITH THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION
28%
25%
15%
32%
0-1 years 1-5 year 6-10 years more than 10 years
YEARS IN THE PRESENT POSITION
38%
22%
9%
31%
<1 year 1-5 year 6-10 years >10 years
INCOME
20%
37%
15%
28%
Less than 25K Between 25K and 100K Between 100K and 200K More than 200K
PROFESSION
16%
16%
17%
17%
17%
17%
Student Doctor Broker Teacher Investor Other (Please Specify)
DO YOU KNOW ABOUT BOND MARKET?
78%
22%
Yes No
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING TERMINOLOGIES
DO YOU KNOW OF
44
20
23
15
39
29
32
29
35
22
7 5
WHY DO YOU THINK PEOPLE INVEST IN BOND
MARKET?
LOW RISK HIGH RETURNS FOR
DIVERSIFICATION
OTHER (PLEASE
SPECIFY)
44
7
31
5
WHY DO YOU THINK PEOPLE DON’T INVEST IN
BOND MARKET?
1
41
35
26 28
20
33
5
WHY DO YOU THINK CORPORATE DON’T ISSUE
BONDS IN PAKISTAN?
NO NEED OF
ADDITIONAL
FUNDS
DIFFICULT TO
ISSUE
MORE COST
INVOLVED
OTHER (PLEASE
SPECIFY)
13
32 31
6
DO YOU INVEST IN CAPITAL MARKETS?
40%
60%
Yes No
HOW MANY TIMES DO YOU INVEST?
17%
67%
12%
4%
Daily Monthly Yearly Once in five years
IN WHICH SEGMENTS OF CAPITAL MARKET DO YOU
INVEST?
PROPERTY BOND
MARKET
STOCK
MARKET
MUTUAL
FUNDS
CURRENCY OTHER
(PLEASE
SPECIFY)
18
3
23
7
2
0
WHAT IS YOUR PORTFOLIO SIZE?
8%
17%
4%
71%
Less than 100K Between 100K and 300K Between 300K and 500K More than 500K
WHICH TYPE OF BONDS ARE YOU FAMILIAR
WITH?
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES CORPORATE BONDS
16
21
WHICH DO YOU PREFER INVESTMENT IN?
SHORT TERM DEBT
SECURITIES (SUCH AS T-
BILLS)
LONG TERM DEBT
SECURITIES (SUCH AS
PIBS)
BOTH SHORT-TERM DEBT
AND LONG TERM DEBT
3 2
19
WHAT ARE BONDS MOST SUITABLE FOR?
AS A MEANS TO
GENERATE
CAPITAL
AS A MEANS TO
SAVE IDLE CASH
AS A MEANS TO
GENERATE
ADDITIONAL
INCOME
OTHER (PLEASE
SPECIFY)
13
6
8
0
ARE YOU AWARE OF THE PROCEDURE TO
PURCHASE BONDS IN THE PAKISTAN MARKET?
33%
67%
Yes No
AMONG THE RISK-LESS FORMS OF INVESTMENTS
(BANK DEPOSITS, NATIONAL SAVINGS
CERTIFICATES), WHY DO YOU THINK THAT THE
BOND MARKET IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED?
DUE TO LACK
OF
AWARENESS
DIFFICULT TO
ACCESS AND
PURCHASE
LIMITED
OPTIONS
LOWER
RETURNS
THAN OTHER
FORMS OF
INVESTMENT
OTHER
(PLEASE
SPECIFY)
22
17
19
18
0
IN YOUR OPINION, DOES BOND MARKET NEED
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT CAN START TO
ATTRACT HIGH NET WORTH INVESTORS?
96%
4%
Yes No
WHAT MEASURES CAN BE TAKEN TO IMPROVE THE BOND
MARKET IN PAKISTAN?
 Majority said that the awareness is the key for
improving the bond market
 Another key factor would be proper regulatory body
for maintaining transparency
WHY DO YOU THINK THERE IS A NEED FOR STRONG BOND
MARKET?
 Excess to extra funds for the issuer
 Another investing option would be created for the
investors
 Bond markets are a source of funding
IF YOU CHOSE ‘BOND MARKET’, SPECIFY WHICH TYPE
 Majority invested in government bonds as they are
risk free in nature
 Corporate bonds do not have much awareness
WHY DO YOU INVEST IN THE SEGMENTS
WHICH YOU MARKED?
 Majority responded higher returns being the most
important reason for investing in any capital market
 More then 80% of the respondents went with higher
return being an important reason for the selection of
their market
 Other respondents also selected diversification as
another reason for the selection of their capital
market
WOULD YOU PREFER ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF INVESTMENTS
OVER BONDS? SPECIFY THE REASON?
 Majority of the respondents said they would prefer
alternative forms of investments, specifically;
mutual funds
 Others preferred equity as it is more liquid
 Lack of information about bonds was the reason of
this preference
IN YOUR OPINION, SHOULD STEPS BE TAKEN TO
INCREASE AWARENESS AMONG POTENTIAL BOND
MARKET INVESTORS? IF YES, PLEASE SPECIFY THE
STEPS
 Majority said proper marketing campaigns should
be introduced
 Proper workshops should be held at institutes
 Some suggested allocation of budget to
regulatory bodies
THANK YOU!

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Risk & Return Analysis - Bonds market in Pakistan

  • 1. RISK & RETURN ANALYSIS OF BOND MARKET IN PAKISTAN Faculty Advisor: Ms. Tazeen Arsalan Researchers: Abdul Hadi Khanani Armoghan Moin Qandeel Fatima Memon Samra Javed Syed Jahanzeb Haider Yamna Shumas Zoya Talat
  • 3. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY To Analyze The Risk And Return Of Bond Market in Pakistan To Analyze The Factors affecting Return on Bond Market in Pakistan
  • 4. OUTLINE  Introduction  Bond Market Importance  Bond Market in Pakistan  Bond Timeline & History  Future Prospect  Literature Review  Methodology  Findings  Discussions
  • 5. DEFINITIONS Bonds A bond is a debt investment in which an investor loans money to an entity (typically corporate or governmental) which borrows the funds for a defined period of time at a variable or fixed interest rate. Owners of bonds are debt holders, or creditors, of the issuer.  Bond Market: The bond market – also called the debt market or credit market – is a financial market in which the participants are provided with the issuance and trading of debt securities.
  • 6. DIMENSIONS OF BOND MARKETS BUYERS -Companies -Government -Individuals ISSUERS -Companies -Government
  • 7. IMPORTANCE OF BOND MARKETS BUYERS ISSUERS Steady income Cost Effective Small investors Competition to banks Diversification Alternative means of raising debt capital Central Banks issue bonds to: • develop infrastructure of the country •Invest to earn return •To monitor currency value • to control money supply, and subsequently •To control inflation
  • 8. BENEFITS OF BOND MARKET ON ECONOMY Avenue to invest Direct competition to banks Good indicator of wider macro- level signals Money supply is absorbed Inflation is controlled Improvement in currency Foreign portfolio investment
  • 9. NEED FOR DEBT MARKET  Microeconomic Role • Local Borrowing – Elimination of maturity mismatch • Foreign Borrowing – Twin Mismatch (Maturity, FOREX Risk) • Facilitates Development of Risk Management Instruments  Macroeconomic Role • Alternative Source of Borrowing • Credit Risk Dispersion • Risk – Possible Contagion Effect
  • 10. TYPES OF BONDS 2)Government bonds • Pakistan Investment Bonds • US Special Dollar Bonds • WAPDA Bonds • National Saving Bonds • Sukuk 1)Corporate Bonds Engro Bonds
  • 11. HISTORY OF BOND MARKET IN PAKISTAN 1960 To cover non-banking segment, Prize Bonds were introduced followed by various NSS Schemes. 1990s Market based Government Securities came into existence. 1992 Introduction of long term paper (FIB). Long term yield curve emerged giving opportunity to the corporate to come up with instruments. 1995 Foundation of the corporate bond market was laid with the first issue of Term Final Certificates (TFC). 2000 Introduction of Pakistan Investment Bonds. (PIBs). Long term instruments gained momentum. SBP introduced selective Primary Dealer System (PD). 2001 KIBOR/KIBID rates were introduced to provide inter-bank call money curve. 2001-05 Corporate Bond market was vibrant, adding approximately PKR 65 Billion issuance or 98% of total issuance to date. 2005 SBP issued guidelines on Forward Rate Agreement (FRA), Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and Currency Options. 2007 Introduction of Engro bonds of Rs 4 billion. 2008 Introduction of GoP Ijara Sukuk.
  • 12. 2009-10 The Government raised Rs. 64.31 billion, as against the target of Rs. 60 billion, through the auctions of Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs). A total of four tranches of GoP Ijara Sukuk had been issued. Bond Automated Trading System (BATS), a new debt market platform was introduced. It allows electronic order entry and matching facility, which will provide a more efficient and transparent way to trade debt market securities. April 12, 2009 KSE and MUFAP joined hands for the development corporate debt market Trading – KSE, Settlement – NCC, Custodian – CDC TFCs to be traded through BATS in the first phase Government securities to be traded in the 2nd phase 2010-11 Development of an electronic fixed income trading platform provided by Bloomberg called E-BOND : Electronic Bond Trading Platform. 2012 According to SBP and SECP, the domestic bonds outstanding were 30 percent of the GDP, which mostly consisted of government bonds, as the corporate bonds market was less developed. 2014 Pakistani bonds revived investor interest Corporate market came under investors focus. Pakistan rose $2 billion through Euro Bonds. 2015 Pakistan issued $500 million Euro Bonds. October 2016 Pakistan rose $1 billion through Sukuk bonds.
  • 13. PROBLEMS IN BOND MARKET OF PAKISTAN  High administration cost  Lack of Technological developments – transparency and liquidity  Weak Market Infrastructure  Expectations of inflation and frequent devaluation of PKR hindered the foreign investment  Lack of Benchmark in the market – Valuation problems (PIB 3,5, 10 years)  Inactive Secondary Market, absence of central price discovery mechanics/platform
  • 14. RECOMMENDATIONS The role of SBP needs to be changed. Mandatory for SBP to list it.  Weak policies and unplanned structure needs mass improvement. Administration costs can be easily and effectively handled. Develop it to avoid monopoly. Need for Technological developments – transparency and liquidity
  • 16. Title Author Year Sample Result A Study on the Impact of Selected Monetary, Fiscal, Economic Variables on the Indian Bond Market Dr. R. Himachalapa thy, Rakshitha 2015 Country: India Sample: Govt bonds Time Span: 2005 to 2015 Significant relationship between yield rates and bank rate, repo rate, reverse repo, Index of Industrial Production, Wholesale Price Index and GDP Positive relationship between yield rates and bank rate, repo rate, reverse repo rate, Index of Industrial Production, Wholesale Price Index and GDP Information Content of Yield Spread: Economic Growth of Malaysia Joanne Yen- Ei Keki and Kim-Leng Goh 2015 Country: Malaysia Sample: 10 year Malaysian govt security and 3 month T-Bills Time Span:1997 to 2012 Significant relationship between yield spread and economic activity Positive Relationship between yield and economic factors
  • 17. Title Author Year Sample Result A Comparative Analysis of Returns of Various Financial Asset Classes in South Africa, A Triumph of Bonds C. Auret and R. Vivian 2014 Country: South Africa Sample: Equities, bonds and cash in South Africa Time Span: 1986 to 2013 No significant relationship between the returns of equities over long bonds even before adjusting for risk Exchange Rate Risk and Local Currency Sovereign Bond Yields in Emerging Markets Blaise Gadanecz , Ken Miyajima, Chang Shu 2014 Country: 20 economies Sample: 5 year local currency sovereign bonds of 20 economies Time Span: 2005 to 2013 Significant relationship between exchange rate risk of emerging market economies and local currency sovereign bond yields Positive relationship
  • 18. Title Author Year Sample Result The Interest rate Effects on Government Debt Maturity Jagjit S Chadha, Philip Turner and Zampolli 2013 Country: US Sample: 5 & 10 year T-Bills Time Span: 1976 to 2006 Significant relationship between dividend yield, CPI and GDP Positive relationship An Empirical Analysis of the Performance of the Ghana Stock Exchange and Treasury Bills Samuel Antwi 2012 Country: Ghana Sample: Annual returns of the Ghana Stock Exchange all-share index and Treasury bill Time Span: 1990 to 2010 Significant relationship between risk and return of equity market and significant relationship between risk and return of debt market. Positive relationship
  • 19. Title Author Year Sample Result The Impact of Changes in Financial and Macroeconomics Variable on Term Structure of Interest Rates in Malaysia Ong Tze San, Lai Yoke and Heng 2012 Country: Malaysia Sample: One and 10 year Malaysian govt securities Time Span:1997 to 2009 Money supply and current account have significant relationship on bond yield Money supply has a positive relationship with bond yield, whereas current account has a negative relationship with bond yield Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields Baldacci and Kumar 2010 Country: 31 advanced and emerging market economies Sample: Fiscal deficit and government debt in 31 countries Time Span: 1980 to 2008 Higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates Positive relationship between large fiscal deficits and public debts and sovereign bond yields Factors Influencing Yield Spreads of the Malaysian Bonds Norliza Ahmad and Joriah Muhamm ad 2009 Country: Malaysia Sample: Govt securities and corporate bonds Time Span: 2001 to 2008 CPI and interest rates have a significant relationship with the yield spread of Malaysian Government Securities Positive relationships
  • 20. FACTORS IDENTIFIED THROUGH LITERATURE REVIEW Risk Interest Rate Fiscal Deficit Exchange Rate GDP
  • 22.  Interviews  Literature Review RESEARCH TECHNIQUE QUALITATIVE QUANTITATIVE  Regression of Bonds’ Data & External Factors’ data run on Stata
  • 23. VARIABLES  PIB 3, 5 & 10 YEAR BONDS DEPENDENT VARIABLE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES  Standard Deviation  Interest Rate  Fiscal Deficit  Gross Domestic Product  Exchange Rate
  • 24.  Reuters, World Bank & Pakistan Economic Survey TIME PERIOD  2005 to 2015 (11 years) DATA COLLECTION
  • 25. REGRESSION MODEL The following regressions are performed in our study-  Pooled  Fixed  Random  Four models are developed to check the relationship.
  • 26. EQUATION  Model (1 – All Bonds, 2 – Three Year PIBs 3 – Five Year PIBs 4 – Ten Year PIBs)  Bond Yields = f (Risk, fiscal deficit, interest rate, exchange rate, GDP) OR  Y = βo + β1X1(Risk) + β2X2(Fiscal Deficit) + β3X3(GDP) +β4X4(Interest Rate) + β5X5(Exchange Rate)
  • 27. There exists a Positive relationship between Risk and bond yield. There exists a positive relationship between interest rate and bond yield. There exists a negative relationship between exchange rate and bond yield. There exists a negative relationship between GDP and bond yield. There exists a positive relationship between fiscal deficit and bond yield. Hypothesis
  • 29. DESCRIPTIVE OF MODEL 1(ALL BONDS) Variable Mean Standard Deviation Min Max Observations Yield overall 11.30100. 1.807156. 7.622. 13.474. N = 33 between 0.388582. 10.925. 11.701. n = 3 within 1.778202. 7.998. 13.782. T = 11 Risk overall 0.05345. .2E49259 -0.349. 0.744. N = 33 between 0.020821. 0.033. 0.074. n = 3 within 0.214231. -0.370. 0.723. T = 11 Interest Rate overall 0.06585. 0.018400. 0.026. 0.087. N = 33 between 0.000000. 0.066. 0.066. n = 3 within 0.018400. 0.026. 0.087. T = 11 Exchange Rate overall 0.06446. 0.058037. -0.005. 0.161. N = 33 between 0.000000. 0.064. 0.064. n = 3 within 0.058037. -0.005. 0.161. T = 11 Gross overall 0.04156. 0.018332. 0.016. 0.077. N = 33 Domestic between 0.000000. 0.000. 0.042. n = 3 Product within 0.018332. 0.016. 0.077. T = 11 Fd Overall 0.05645. 0.014642. 0.033. 0.082. N = 33 between 0.000000. 0.056. 0.056. n = 3 within 0.014642. 0.033. 0.082. T = 11
  • 30. Independe nt Variables Coef. Std. Err. T P>t Coef. Std. Err. T P>t Coef. Std. Err. z P>z Risk 3.9274. 0.721 5.44 0.000 4.2147 0.553816 7.61 0.000 3.927356 0.721953 5.44 0.000 Interest Rate 81.8439 16.49 4.96 0.000 86.083 12.61:639 6.83 0.000 81.84388 16.49433 4.96 0.000 Exchange Rate -4.3706. 2.442 -1.79 0.085 -4.5727 1.86271 -2.45 0.021 -4.3706 2.442986 -1.79 0.074 Gross Domestic Product -24.1592. 14.57 -1.66 0.108 -21.491 11.124 -1.93 0.065 -24.1592 14.57399 -1.66 0.097 Fiscal Deficit 11.8870. 11.46 1.04 0.308 11.791 8.736152 1.35 0.189 11.89698 11.46075 1.04 0.299 _cons 6.2719. 1.665 3.77 0.001 5.8835 1.272432 4.62 0.000 6.271927 1.665641 3.77 0.000 Pooled Regression Fixed Effect Random Effect Adj R square 0.898 R square R square Within 0.9433 Within 0.9428 Overall 0.8975 Overall 0.8980 F test 47.53 F test 83.2 Model 1 (All bonds included)
  • 31. MODEL 2 ( 3 YEAR PIB BOND) Independent Variables Coef. Std. Err. T P>t Risk 4.1242. 1.015386 4.06 0.010 Gross Domestic Product -32.7755. 24.33905 -1.35 0.236 Interest Rate 96.6465. 28.1523 3.43 0.019 Exchange Rate -6.3025. 4.282961 -1.47 0.201 Fiscal Deficit 7.7628. 19.86533 0.39 0.712 _cons 5.5210. 2.8443616 1.94 0.110 Pooled Regression Adj R square 0.9502 F test 19.08
  • 32. MODEL 3 ( 5 YEAR PIB BOND) Independent Variables Coef. Std. Err. T P>t Risk 5.058. 0.8662832 5.84 0.002 Interest Rate 99.17184 - 18.60818 5.33 0.003 Exchange Rate -5.195. 2.655264 1.96 0.108 GDP -13.354. 16.17758 0.83 0.447 Fiscal Deficit 12.648. 12.40545 1.02 0.355 _cons 4.601.202 1.87641 2.45 0.058 Pooled Regression Adj R square 0.9502 F test 19.08
  • 33. MODEL 4 ( 10 YEAR PIB BOND) Pooled Regression Adj R square 0.9937 F test 316.78 Independent Variables Coef. Std. Err. T P>t Risk 6.327. 0.4194798 15.08 0.000 Gross Domestic Product 8.071. 6.068317 1.33 0.241 Interest Rate 98.758. 6.831279 14.46 0.000 Exchange Rate -3.417. 0.8774736 -3.89 0.011 Fiscal Deficit 11.578. 4.201141 2.76 0.040 _cons 4.187. 0.6747056 6.21 0.002
  • 35. HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH STANDARD DEVIATION (RISK)  Results shows that as risk increase return increase  Risk is a measure of volatility  Bonds with high volatility risk have higher yield  Bonds with low volatility have lower yield  PIBS are sovereign bonds, it doesn’t have liquidity, default risk.
  • 36. HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH STANDARD DEVIATION (RISK)  PIBs have inflation risk and interest rate risk  Coupon payments are fixed it doesn’t increase with inflation
  • 37. YIELD HAS A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH INTEREST RATE  Interest rate is an important factor and affects returns of all investments  Increase in interest rate increase a return on bonds  Bond yield is directly correlated with interest rate as interest rate increases bond yield increase and coupon payment on bonds increase.  As interest rate increases the prices of previously issued bond decrease as new bonds would offer higher yield.
  • 38. HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH GDP  According to academic theories increase in GDP is due to increase total investment  It increases demand pull inflation  To overcome demand pull inflation government increases interest rate which increase bond yield.  In Pakistan bond yield and GDP have negative relationship
  • 39. HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH GDP  Pakistan has done huge borrowings from IMF and is moving towards new era of growth due to CPEC.  Foreigners and locals are investing huge amount of money in mega projects  Government is decreasing interest rate to encourage investment and discourage fixed deposits  It gives incentive to companies to invest in business leading to increase in investment component leading in increase in GDP.
  • 40. HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH EXCHANGE RATE  Pakistan has done huge borrowing from IMF and World Bank to overcome its fiscal deficit  Under current IMF program Pakistan is forced to devalue its local currency and decrease its interest rate  It would increase money supply in an economy and discourage deposits in saving account to encourage investment in an economy  The purpose is to increase growth through investment
  • 41. HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH FISCAL DEFICIT  Bond Yield and fiscal deficit has positive relationship  Fiscal deficit increases ,yield increase.  In Pakistan government tries to fill a gap of fiscal deficit by issuing debts  Fiscal deficit increase government increase an interest rate  It attracts investors to buy the extra debt and limit the money supply in economy
  • 42. HYPOTHESIS: YIELD HAS A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH FISCAL DEFICIT  Banks heavily invest in T-Bills and PIBS.  Same was happening in 2008.  Creates “Crowding Out” effect by borrowing more money and leaves less money for private sector  Higher interest rates also can reduce the private sector's demand for capital  It reduce the demand for commercial and retail borrowing
  • 43. SUMMARY OF RESULTS Variables Relationship Risk + Exchange Rate - Interest Rate + Fiscal Deficit + GDP -
  • 44. LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY  Only 3, 5 and 10 year PIB Bonds are included in the study  The Research is done only on Pakistani Bonds.  Only 11 years of data is has been included i.e. 2005 to 2015.
  • 45. SUMMARY OF STOCK & BOND RESULTS Variables Stocks Bonds Risk + + Exchange Rate - - Inflation - Not Applicable Foreign Direct Investment + Not Applicable Interest Rate + + Money Supple + Not Applicable GDP + - Fiscal Deficit +
  • 47. KNOW WHAT INVESTMENT PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE:  Ordinary shares of listed companies  Unit trust schemes  Mutual funds certificates  Corporate bonds i.e., Term Finance Certificates (TFCs)  Government securities i.e., Federal Investment  Bonds(FIBs), Pakistan Investment Bond (PIBs)  Special US Dollar Bonds
  • 48. STRATEGIES FOR INVESTMENT.  Top down  Bottom up  Value or growth  Large or small cap  Ethical investment and technical analysis
  • 49. TIPS FOR INVESTING WISELY When trading in the Stock Market, one should avoid:  Greed  Making the same mistake twice  Following the crowd  Putting all your ‘eggs in one basket’  Using rumors as tips  Emotions; being emotional can effect reasoning  Traders should use research backed by fundamental reasoning.  Impatience  Over borrowing
  • 50. IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS FOR INVESTORS  How Much Money Can You Afford to Invest?  How Do You Want to Invest?
  • 53. AGE 30% 22% 13% 35% <30 years 30-39 years 40-49 years 50 and above
  • 55. YEARS WITH THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION 28% 25% 15% 32% 0-1 years 1-5 year 6-10 years more than 10 years
  • 56. YEARS IN THE PRESENT POSITION 38% 22% 9% 31% <1 year 1-5 year 6-10 years >10 years
  • 57. INCOME 20% 37% 15% 28% Less than 25K Between 25K and 100K Between 100K and 200K More than 200K
  • 58. PROFESSION 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 17% Student Doctor Broker Teacher Investor Other (Please Specify)
  • 59. DO YOU KNOW ABOUT BOND MARKET? 78% 22% Yes No
  • 60. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING TERMINOLOGIES DO YOU KNOW OF 44 20 23 15 39 29 32 29 35 22 7 5
  • 61. WHY DO YOU THINK PEOPLE INVEST IN BOND MARKET? LOW RISK HIGH RETURNS FOR DIVERSIFICATION OTHER (PLEASE SPECIFY) 44 7 31 5
  • 62. WHY DO YOU THINK PEOPLE DON’T INVEST IN BOND MARKET? 1 41 35 26 28 20 33 5
  • 63. WHY DO YOU THINK CORPORATE DON’T ISSUE BONDS IN PAKISTAN? NO NEED OF ADDITIONAL FUNDS DIFFICULT TO ISSUE MORE COST INVOLVED OTHER (PLEASE SPECIFY) 13 32 31 6
  • 64. DO YOU INVEST IN CAPITAL MARKETS? 40% 60% Yes No
  • 65. HOW MANY TIMES DO YOU INVEST? 17% 67% 12% 4% Daily Monthly Yearly Once in five years
  • 66. IN WHICH SEGMENTS OF CAPITAL MARKET DO YOU INVEST? PROPERTY BOND MARKET STOCK MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS CURRENCY OTHER (PLEASE SPECIFY) 18 3 23 7 2 0
  • 67. WHAT IS YOUR PORTFOLIO SIZE? 8% 17% 4% 71% Less than 100K Between 100K and 300K Between 300K and 500K More than 500K
  • 68. WHICH TYPE OF BONDS ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH? GOVERNMENT SECURITIES CORPORATE BONDS 16 21
  • 69. WHICH DO YOU PREFER INVESTMENT IN? SHORT TERM DEBT SECURITIES (SUCH AS T- BILLS) LONG TERM DEBT SECURITIES (SUCH AS PIBS) BOTH SHORT-TERM DEBT AND LONG TERM DEBT 3 2 19
  • 70. WHAT ARE BONDS MOST SUITABLE FOR? AS A MEANS TO GENERATE CAPITAL AS A MEANS TO SAVE IDLE CASH AS A MEANS TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL INCOME OTHER (PLEASE SPECIFY) 13 6 8 0
  • 71. ARE YOU AWARE OF THE PROCEDURE TO PURCHASE BONDS IN THE PAKISTAN MARKET? 33% 67% Yes No
  • 72. AMONG THE RISK-LESS FORMS OF INVESTMENTS (BANK DEPOSITS, NATIONAL SAVINGS CERTIFICATES), WHY DO YOU THINK THAT THE BOND MARKET IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED? DUE TO LACK OF AWARENESS DIFFICULT TO ACCESS AND PURCHASE LIMITED OPTIONS LOWER RETURNS THAN OTHER FORMS OF INVESTMENT OTHER (PLEASE SPECIFY) 22 17 19 18 0
  • 73. IN YOUR OPINION, DOES BOND MARKET NEED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT CAN START TO ATTRACT HIGH NET WORTH INVESTORS? 96% 4% Yes No
  • 74. WHAT MEASURES CAN BE TAKEN TO IMPROVE THE BOND MARKET IN PAKISTAN?  Majority said that the awareness is the key for improving the bond market  Another key factor would be proper regulatory body for maintaining transparency
  • 75. WHY DO YOU THINK THERE IS A NEED FOR STRONG BOND MARKET?  Excess to extra funds for the issuer  Another investing option would be created for the investors  Bond markets are a source of funding
  • 76. IF YOU CHOSE ‘BOND MARKET’, SPECIFY WHICH TYPE  Majority invested in government bonds as they are risk free in nature  Corporate bonds do not have much awareness
  • 77. WHY DO YOU INVEST IN THE SEGMENTS WHICH YOU MARKED?  Majority responded higher returns being the most important reason for investing in any capital market  More then 80% of the respondents went with higher return being an important reason for the selection of their market  Other respondents also selected diversification as another reason for the selection of their capital market
  • 78. WOULD YOU PREFER ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF INVESTMENTS OVER BONDS? SPECIFY THE REASON?  Majority of the respondents said they would prefer alternative forms of investments, specifically; mutual funds  Others preferred equity as it is more liquid  Lack of information about bonds was the reason of this preference
  • 79. IN YOUR OPINION, SHOULD STEPS BE TAKEN TO INCREASE AWARENESS AMONG POTENTIAL BOND MARKET INVESTORS? IF YES, PLEASE SPECIFY THE STEPS  Majority said proper marketing campaigns should be introduced  Proper workshops should be held at institutes  Some suggested allocation of budget to regulatory bodies