RiskAnalytica is a group of scientists that are dedicated to solving quantitative problems and supporting decision analysis in business, health care, markets and macroeconomic endeavours. Since 2001 we have earned a reputation for independence, integrity, and system insights that has made our brand of mathematical and systems analysis a leader in high-end, scientifically sound, quantitative decision support in Canada.

1. ph. 416-782-7475
www.riskanalytica.com
About RiskAnalytica
2013
1

2. Who We Are
2
 Independent health policy and business
decision consulting organization based in
Toronto
 Team of scientists, economists, and health
policy analysts working together to assess and
forecast complex scenarios
 We connect external stakeholders to our
client projects to create exposure and foster
change
 Regularly publish in academic journals and
attract media attention
Collaborated with
400+ experts
Worked with 40+
Clients
Generated 60+
reports
Since 2003

3. Who We Serve
3
Client Using microsimulation and predictive
analysis to:
Not-for-profit
Organizations
Raise awareness of disease burden by
quantifying its health and economic impacts
and identifying beneficial interventions
Pharma
Build business cases for a therapeutic
intervention by assessing its policy value and
cost-effectiveness
Policy Makers
Provide evidence-based quantitative support
for policy change or informed investments
Other Private
Organizations
Optimize operational processes, maximize
revenues, retain customers, etc.
Clients seeking improvement, relevance and change through evidence-
based quantitative analysis

4.  A proven method of connecting and facilitating stakeholders and experts with
data and mathematical modeling.
 Agent-based, event-driven mathematical microsimulation model called the
Life at Risk Platform. The model is of a class as described in section 4.1.65 of
the OECD Health Working Papers No. 59
 The life trajectories of individual people are followed through various health
and economic states
 Realistic representation of the complexity of systems
 Ability to discern the life and economic value propositions of change
 Provides a means to reconcile value propositions with actual events
 Sensitivity and scenario analysis to locate value, costs and risks
 Cost/benefit and marginal return analysis to support policy intervention
evaluations
Background on Microsimulation
4
What is it?
Why is it used?

5.  Algorithm models whose outputs provide predictive insights into a
specific scenario based on historical data
 Widely applied in several industries such as in financial
services, telecommunication, retail, healthcare, and insurance
 Algorithms can “train” on new emerging data thereby adapting and
becoming more accurate
 Unprecedented amounts of big data available
 Opportunity to capitalize on untapped potential
 Identify hidden risks and implement preemptive mitigation strategies
 Add context and make “sense” out of big data
 Uncover hidden, valuable insights in data
Background on Predictive Analytics
5
What is it?
Why is it used?

6. Microsimulation and Predictive Analytics Can….
6
Context Microsimulation and Predictive Analytics Can… Outcome
Healthcare
Assess current and future burden of illness and
effects of continuums of care
Identify areas in need of interventions (policy,
therapeutic, etc)
Forecast market access landscape of therapeutics Optimize resource allocation for new
therapeutic areas
Identify inefficiencies within the healthcare
system
Address identified elements to improve
healthcare (eg. reduce hospital admissions, save
costs, reduce caregiver burden, etc.)
Quantify and compare effects of interventions in
the present and future
Evidence-based, optimized allocation of funds
for the greatest benefit
Retail
Identify consumer behaviour trends and patterns Tailor marketing strategy
Identify and target “best” customers Manage profitable customer relationships
Identify potential customers and those at risk of
leaving
Evidence-guided capture & retain marketing
strategy
Asset /
Inventory
Management
Predict demand for specific assets or inventory Optimize asset management to reduce
warehousing costs
Predict repairs and replacement that challenges
typical scheduled asset management practices
Switch to predictive maintenance practice
thereby reducing costs and maximizing output

7. Population
Health
Analysis
Population
Health
Data Sets
Economic
Analysis
Our Technology
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50+ Diseases (incidence, prevalence, mortality)
10+ Risk factors (smoking, drinking, obesity, etc)
 Co-morbidities
Demographics data (age, sex, race, birth,
death, immigration, emigration, region)
Direct and indirect healthcare costs
Employment & unemployment, fiscal
revenue, income, GDP, personal income taxes, etc
 State-of-the-art simulation platform created and optimized over the last 10 years
 Flexible and accommodating to complex scenarios in various areas
 Once a project is completed, the platform can be reused periodically to generate
more recent outcomes
 Team of scientists, economists and analysts working with client to achieve goals and
extract key messages
Healthcare
Finance
Business
Intelligence
Inventory/Assets
And more…
Client
Needs

8. Over 50 disease/injury types:
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Current Health Scope of Our Microsimulation Platform
Cancer - Breast
Cancer -
Colorectal
Cancer - Lung
Cancer - Prostate
Cancer - Skin
Cancer - Total
Cardiovascular -
Angina
Cardiovascular -
Cerebrovascular
Cardiovascular -
Hypertension
Cardiovascular -
Myocardial
Infarction
Cardiovascular –
Other Ischemic
Heart Disease
Cardiovascular -
Total
Digestive -
Cirrhosis
Digestive - Colitis
Digestive –
Crohn's Disease
Digestive -
Gallstones
Digestive - Hernia
Digestive – Peptic
Ulcers
Digestive - Total
Endocrine -
Diabetes Type1
Endocrine -
Diabetes Type2
Endocrine -
Thyroid Disorders
Endocrine - Total
External – Motor
Vehicle Accidents
External - Total
External –
Unintentional
Falls
Genitourinary -
Chronic Kidney
Disease
Genitourinary -
Total
Genitourinary -
Urinary
Incontinence
Mental - Anxiety
Mental -
Attention Deficit
Hyperactivity
Disorders
Mental - Conduct
Disorders
Mental -
Dementia
Mental - Mood
Disorders
Mental -
Psychotic
Disorders
Mental –
Substance Use
Disorders
Mental - Total
Musculoskeletal –
Back Pain
Musculoskeletal –
Osteoarthritis
Musculoskeletal -
Osteoporosis
Musculoskeletal –
Rheumatoid
Arthritis
Musculoskeletal -
Total
Nervous -
Alzheimer's
Disease
Nervous - Epilepsy
Nervous -
Migraine
Nervous –
Multiple Sclerosis
Nervous -
Parkinson's
Disease
Nervous - Total
Respiratory –
Acute Respiratory
Infections
Respiratory -
Asthma
Respiratory -
Chronic
Obstructive
Pulmonary
Disease
Respiratory -
Total
Skin – Total

9. 9
Examples of High Impact Projects
Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (2006)
Life and Economic Burden of Cancer: 2002 to 2032
Ontario Lung Association (2011)
Life and Economic Burden of
Lung Disease in Ontario: 2011 to 2041
Arthritis Alliance of Canada (2011)
Life and Economic Burden of
Osteoarthritis and Rheumatoid Arthritis
2010 to 2040
Cancer Institute NSW (2007)
Life and Economic Burden of
Cancer, NSW, Australia 2007 to 2010
National Microbiological
Lab, PHAC (2009)
Dr. Lindsay E. Nicolle Award 2010
Pandemic simulation
Mental Health Commission of
Canada (2013)
The Life and Economic Impact of Major Mental
Illnesses in Canada, 2011 to 2041
Alzheimers Society Canada (2010)
Life and Economic Burden of Dementia: 2010 to 2040

10. Examples of High-Impact Projects
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11. • Project Summary:
• Quantified the current and future burden of major mental
health illnesses in Canada from 2011 to 2041
• First major attempt at quantifying the present and future
burden of 7 mental illnesses using a meta analysis of several
databases, including:
• 6 childhood, 7 adolescent, and 6 adult conditions
• Three-year of collaboration with 30 experts
• Based on world-renowned cohort study data our simulation followed patients
longitudinally
The Life and Economic Impact of Major Mental Illnesses in Canada,
2011 to 2041
11

12. The Life and Economic Impact of Major Mental Illnesses in Canada,
2011 to 2041
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Publication
The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry
The Mental Health Strategy for Canada
Publication
The Journal of Child Psychology and
Psychiatry
The Report

13. The Life and Economic Burden of Lung Disease in Ontario, 2011 to
2041
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Microsimulation of the life and economic impacts of
asthma, COPD and lung cancer in Ontario over the
next 30 years
Assessed the value of „what-if‟ scenarios related to
lung disease prevention, treatment and care
programs including:
• A comprehensive smoking cessation
program;
• Access to accurate diagnosis with
spirometry;
• Comprehensive Patient Care Model;
• Access to Pulmonary Rehabilitation
Involved the input of16 subject-matter experts
across Ontario and 24 members of the stakeholder
panel including health professional bodies and
industry partners

14. The Life and Economic Burden of Arthritis in Canada, 2010 to 2040
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Microsimulation of the life and economic impacts of
osteoarthritis (OA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA)
over 30 years
Identified potential strategies for managing the
burden of arthritis by quantifying the long-term
value of four arthritic care interventions including:
• Access to DMARD and Biologic Use for RA;
• Total Joint Replacement Surgery for OA;
• Pain Management Strategies for OA; and
• Primary Prevention Program for OA.
Collaborated with members of the Alliance for the
Canadian Arthritis Program (ACAP) including
epidemiologists, researchers, clinicians, governme
nt and patient representatives.
Results gained widespread media attention
including public news reports

15. • Developed real-time early pandemic
warning algorithms for severe seasonal
influenza and pandemic influenza across
157 health regions of Alberta
• Processed real-time ARTSSN data to
predict peak attack rate
Early-Warning Epidemic and Pandemic Algorithms
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• Updated client with
weekly reports which
were disseminated to
the high- ranking
officials in Alberta

16. Predicting Intra-Day Stock Prices
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Fidessa Group plc is a FTSE 250 Index company with
85% of the tier one global equity brokers using their
platform.
Received daily 15GB data for the top 100 TSX stocks
with information on trades, bids, offers, and order-flow
movements for all traders and venues.
The challenge: Develop algorithms that can predict
the direction of stock price moves minute by minute to
support efficient fast order routing
The result: Algorithms developed with a probability of being wrong equivalent to
the chance of rolling 103 heads in a row using a fair die (ie. for 2 minutes in every
16 hrs of trading the algorithm predicts incorrectly)

17. • While it is well known that the quality and
quantity of infrastructure has a direct
impact upon how efficiently societies are
able to operate and grow, individuals and
businesses have yet to connect
underinvestment in infrastructure to their
personal prosperity.
Economic Microsimulation
17
• Using economic and demographic
microsimulation, the impacts of long-
term infrastructure investment
patterns on future economic
production, income of employees,
and net profits after-tax of employers
were assessed for a 50 year period.
• The results emphasized the potential
risk that Canadian employees and
employers bear when long term
infrastructure trends tend towards
persistent underinvestment.

18. • Actuarial analysis is constrained to
consider only a subset of variables
under simplified assumptions that
can expose a benefits plan to future
funding risk.
• Used microsimulation of a 40,000
member plan, and data mining 15
years of return to work rates, health
state, claim types, plan membership
and retirement ages
• Results: The Plan was shown to be
exposed to the risk of being
underfunded by 2023 given the
conjunction of return to work and
retirement age probabilities.
Benefit Plan Microsimulation
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55
57
59
61
63
65
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
PercentFunded
Percent Funded by 2023
5th Percentile

19. • The impact of a pandemic is sensitive to the timing of vaccine availability and the use of
antivirals
• Antivirals only (No Vaccine curves) could reduce direct cost by over 50% ($400 million) and
hospitalizations by 38% (over 34,000)
• If vaccines were widely available 2 months after the virus was identified and used with
antiviral treatment:
– Over 80% of hospitalizations could be prevented
– Direct costs reduced by up to 95%, or $650 million, (excluding cost of vaccination)
– The economic productivity impact could increase by more than 80% to less than $1 billion
Pandemic Microsimulation and Vaccine Production
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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
NumberofPeople
Date
Sick Population - One Wave Pandemic
No Intervention 2 Months 4 Months
6 Months No Vaccine
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
NumberofPeople
Date
Sick Population - Two Wave Pandemic
No Intervention 2 Months 4 Months
6 Months No Vaccine

20. RiskAnalytica
2020
45 Mutual Street
Suite 200
Toronto, ON M5B 2A7
Email: info@riskanalytica.com
Tel: (416) 782-7475
www.riskanalytica.com