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Risk Analysis of Linear Projects
The document discusses risk analysis in linear projects, which are construction projects linked to specific locations, such as tunnels and pipelines. It highlights the importance of risk-adjusted location charts to analyze potential delays and budget overruns, using examples like the London Crossrail project. Risk analysis is facilitated by specialized software tools, including RiskyProject and Turbo-Chart.
Risk Analysis of Linear Projects
- 1. Risk Analysis ofLinear Projects Intaver Institute Inc. www.intaver.com Linear Project Software http://www.turbo-chart.com
- 2. What Are theLinear Projects? • In linear projects activities are associated with certain locations. • They are usually construction projects, where each activities have location attributes addition to duration, cost, and other attributes of traditional project schedules. • Examples of linear projects are high-rise buildings, tunnels, pipelines, and roads
- 3. What Are TheLocation Charts? Location Time Activities
- 4. Why Linear ProjectsAre Delayed or Over Budget? London Crossrail Project Originally planned to open in 2018 As of January 2020, it is expected that the central section will open in summer 2021.
- 5. Risk Adjusted LocationCharts • Time location charts could be presented for original project schedule and risks-adjusted project schedule. • Risk adjusted project schedule is a result of project risk analysis • Comparing risk adjusted project schedule and original project schedule helps to determine how risks would affect your project.
- 6. How Risk Analysisis Performed Risks are assigned to certain activities
- 7. Software for RiskAdjusted Location Charts Project Risk Analysis is performed by RiskyProject software (www.intaver.com). Time location charts are presented by Turbo-Chart software (www.turbo-chart.com).
Editor's Notes
- #2 Today we are going to take a high level look at why and how risk analysis is performed on Linear Projects. This video is brought to you in partnership o Intaver Institute and Linear Project Software.
- #3 While all projects occur on locations, the key aspect of linear projects is how it adds a distance dimension to each activity. Linear projects with this distance dimension include high-rise buildings (vertical) or roads, pipelines, and railways (horizontal). The distance element and underlying risk it entails are not well represented in traditional scheduling tools such as Gantt charts. Gantt charts lack the ability to visualize the distance element of each activity.
- #4 Traditional representations of a high-rise building project schedules use Gantt or Bar charts with time for the one axis. The another axis represents a form of Work Breakdown Structure. Location Based Scheduling allocates quantities to the locations defined in the LBS and takes into consideration resourcing required to complete these works, including production rates, crew sizing, logic between tasks and any requirements for splitting or buffering works. This technique allows managers to identify potential risks that can arise due to complexities that can arise due to onsite work conflicts, resource constraints, etc.
- #5 The reasons for linear projects running over budget and schedule are well documented and almost always are due to errors in judgement and subsequent errors in decision making. Here is an example of one of the very large linear projects: London Crossrail. Originally planned to be opened in 2018, it is currently expected that the central section will start operation in summer 2021. One of the key methods used to minimize the impact of management biases is risk analysis and risk management.
- #6 Risk adjusted location charts provide a reality check on the feasibility of the schedule to complete on time and budget. Running a quantitative Monte Carlo risk analysis on the schedule and comparing the results with the current plan, not only provides a more realistic forecast for when a project could be completed, but also identify the critical phases in the project that have the most risk.
- #7 A Monte Carlo risk analysis is performed on the schedule first importing the schedule into the Monte Carlo simulation software. The data includes activity parameters such as Start Time, Finish Time, Durations, Resources etc. Then risks with probabilities and schedule and cost impacts such can be assigned to activities. At this point a simulation is run and probabilities of meeting specific objectives can be determined. The results of this analysis can be exported back into the location based chart which allows a visual comparison of the current schedule vs the more realistic “risk adjusted” schedule.
- #8 Thank you for watching this video on why Risk Analysis and Location based charts. If you have questions regarding this video or the software tools used. Please feel free to contact either Intaver Institute or Linear Project Software for more information or to schedule a demonstration.