FOA White Paper - Four Core Asset Classes for Multigenerational Prosperity
1. Four Core Asset Classes
for Multigenerational
Prosperity
The world’s capacity to provide sustainable sources of food,
water and energy is under pressure with a growing population
and dwindling farmland. How do we preserve wealth in the
face of these critical facts?
By: Angelo J. Robles
The Main Threats
Protection and Preparation
Land: Getting on Solid Ground
Water: Mining “Blue Gold”
Food
Energy
Inside
+
A
bstract:
Can your wealth
withstand a
population
explosion,
global climate change, rampant
pollution, political unrest or war
where you live? Whether or not
you believe in global climate
change or other challenging
scenarios, are you willing
to risk your personal and
generations, that any of these
calamities will not erupt?
In the face of political, economic
and climactic crisis scenarios,
many families could face
dramatic reductions in their net
worth and sustained well-being.
In extreme cases, your lifestyle
and life could become threatened.
The good news is that investing
in Four Core Asset Classes for
Multigenerational Prosperity
—water, energy, real estate and
food—may offer a fundamental
safety blanket;; a hedge against
system failures. These Four Core
Asset Classes are akin to the four
pillars in a building, providing
structural support to your assets.
The strategy described in this
white paper is both defensive
(an ability to better withstand
directional shifts and recessions)
and offensive (the likelihood they
will enjoy increased demand
during the next century). The
following pages explain the
threats to usable resources
and explore how ultra-wealthy
investors might mitigate
potential dangers to their
families.
WHITEPAPER
2. The Main Threats
Population growth is likely to fuel huge
worldwide demand for the Four Core Assets. The
United Nations estimates the world’s population at 7
billion people, while in 1950, it was only 2.5 billion.
In 2050, there will be between 9 and 11 billion living
around the world (depending on global fertility rates).
All those people will need food, water, housing and
energy (as well as health care, education, clothes
and a host of other products and services). Demand
faster rate than the population, partly because of
a concomitant increase in the standard of living,
especially as the growing middle class swells in
emerging markets such as China and India.
Not only are global populations growing, the size of
cities is also on the rise. In 1990, there were 10 cities
with 10 million or more people (six in developing
nations;; four in developed ones). By 2010, that
more than doubled to 21 cities (17 in developing
countries;; four in developed);; and by 2020 the UN
projects there will be 27 such cities (22 in developing
the world’s population currently lives in cities with
populations of at least 1 million people.1
those cities are coastal and far from rural farming
areas.
The quantity and quality of the Four Core Asset
Classes are interrelated. The way land is used, for
instance, will affect the purity of the water on and
around it. Land can be farmed, adding to the supply
of food. Some crops, such as corn, can be used to
feed people and livestock or be converted to ethanol
as a source of energy. Water on the land can be
bottled or used to produce hydroelectric power. On
the other hand, the way land is utilized and managed
can also cause pollution, making water unsuitable for
human or animal consumption and in some cases,
making it toxic. Further, devoting crops to feed
livestock or produce energy competes with demand
for those crops as a source of food.
Future demand for land, water, food and energy will increase
steadily, if not dramatically.
Four Core Asset Classes for Multigenerational Prosperity
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2
3. Protection and Preparation
Learning about demand and supply trends that affect
the Four Core Asset Classes presents an opportunity
to protect one’s wealth and prepare for whatever
circumstances may come our way. We recommend a
two-pronged approach:
Investing directly or indirectly in companies,
land, water, food and energy;;
Using personal wealth to purchase enough of
these core resources so that your family and future
generations can become self-sustained no matter
what local or global trends or crises may impact
wealth and purchasing power preservation requires
families to consider owning interests and in some
cases, even becoming self-sustained.
Four Core Asset Classes for Multigenerational Prosperity
3
4. Land: Getting on Solid Ground
homes and developments of residential, commercial
or industrial properties, and perhaps indirectly
investment trusts (REITs). But most of their property
portfolio may not both produce revenue and hedge
against shortages of water, food or energy.
Opportunities:
Owning fertile land can offer the possibility of
access to the other three of the core asset classes
of sustainability and prosperity: water to drink (if
the land has a source of fresh water such as a
river, aquifer or rainfall), farming to produce food
(should the soil not be fertile for traditional farming,
hydroponic farming could be explored), and a source
of some sort of energy (depending on the geography,
one could install solar panels, wind mills, geothermal
capture, water turbines or other types of power
generation), plus a place to build a home. The food,
water, housing and energy produced on this land
could be used by the landowner’s (single family or a
cooperative community) or sold on the open market.
In the event that the entire global system should fail,
landowners would have a sustainable way to care
Classes reduce dependency on the grid. Wealthy
families can purchase land in an area that is remote,
far from political hotbed areas, with comfortable
year-round climate and a source of fresh, potable
water and fertile soil. They can build a home there,
in which every wall is a solar panel and geothermal
energy is used to keep a constant temperature inside
the home. A hydroponic farm can supply fresh food.
There are multiple safe-haven locations to consider
depending on limitations for travel from your personal
point of origin and where in the globe you might
reside. For example, if you are living in New York
City and your safe haven destination were in New
Hampshire, this could prove to be less of a challenge
than getting to Peru or Canada during a sudden
breakdown in transportation or a major ecologic or
economic crisis.
Be creative about other parts of the world where
you can invest in land. The trick is to identify trends
around your country of origin or other parts of the
world that might fuel real estate development. For
instance, during the 1980s, a real estate investor
found a way to anticipate where to buy property. He
out where their expansion efforts would be for the
in those areas to anticipate all the new workers they
were going to hire.
Similarly, whatever you feel about hydraulic
independence, job creation, billions of dollars in
revenue, and lower greenhouse gas emissions) and
dangers (contamination of underground sources of
drinking water and air pollution causing increased
rates of cancer and other health risks, and even
some reported earthquakes), fracking is already
changing the face of many parts of the U.S. Smart
developers are building housing to accommodate
to carry the natural gas that fracking produces. Retail
chains, banks, and other providers of products and
services are following the trail of future fracking sites.
There are even fracking-related private equity and
hedge funds as well as corporate and municipal
bonds.
Real estate investment trusts, companies that
sell building materials and heavy equipment and
large contractors stand to grow to accommodate
population growth and to rebuild homes and other
buildings in the aftermath of the increasing number
of weather-related disasters such as tornados,
tsunamis, hurricanes and earthquakes around the
world.
Four Core Asset Classes for Multigenerational Prosperity
Owning fertile land can offer the possibility of access to the other three of the
core asset classes of sustainability and prosperity:
4
5. Water: Mining “Blue Gold”
Like land, water is also integrally related to the
other three core asset classes. Water is necessary
to produce and distribute energy and food, and
to support residential, commercial or industrial
development on the land.
Increasing urbanization, described above, boosts
generate power or other industrial activities that
comes with urbanization.2
As demand for water (aka
blue gold) increases, the supply of fresh water is
threatened. There are many factors depleting the
availability of potable water:
Melting: Only about 2.5 percent of the earth’s water
is fresh water. And almost 70 percent of that exists in
glaciers and the polar cap, which have been steadily
melting into the ocean.3
NASA satellite photos show that during the summer,
the polar cap has decreased more than 20 percent
since 1979. The NRDC says that the permanent ice
cover is shrinking at a 9 percent rate per decade.
Unless this melting is stemmed, arctic summers
could become free of ice by the end of this century.
Contamination: The National Resources Defense
Council (NRDC) believes that melting glaciers and
sheets of ice on the land have contributed to rising
sea levels, causing low-lying areas around the world
contamination of freshwater supplies. Any exposed
body of water is vulnerable to contamination. For
instance, many people jog around the reservoir in
Central Park, New York. A terrorist posing as a jogger
could easily hurl one tennis ball-sized biological
Uneven distribution: This poses problems for many
countries, which may have enough water overall,
China, the U.S., India and Spain. Other countries
in Trinidad, the Bahamas and the Cayman Islands.
Unusually huge storms, earthquakes, tsunamis
and other natural disasters have damaged parts
of the infrastructure, from roads and bridges to
treatment plants that are needed to distribute
drinkable water to people in those areas, especially
those who have become homeless or displaced.
Droughts: Steadily rising temperatures and
depletion of global water resources have made
droughts a recurring and growing threat. A National
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) study
concludes that many highly populated countries face
an increased threat of severe drought in the coming
decades. This trend is already underway. In recent
years, many parts of the world have experienced
severe, long-lasting droughts.
For instance, Australia was walloped by ten years of
drought at the beginning of this millennium, which its
government claims was caused by global warming.
Five of the country’s largest cities invested more than
$13 billion on controversial (because they consume
by coal, a major producer of greenhouse gases)
desalinization plants designed to provide more than
30 percent of its water from the ocean. Australia also
subsidized the purchase of home water tanks that let
people capture rainwater, built dams and pipelines
to connect almost 20 water utilities in one grid, and
facilities that recycle wastewater for industrial use.
Increasing urbanization, described below, boosts the demand for water by
Four Core Asset Classes for Multigenerational Prosperity
2
Source: Alexander Zehnder et al., “Water Issues: the Need for Action at Different Levels,” Aquatic Sciences, 2003.
3
According to the environmental group Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
5
6. Water: Mining “Blue Gold”
Saudi Arabia and Israel also run large-scale
desalination plants, and new ones are sprouting in
the U.S. and China.4
Some of the largest corporations in the world
have been keenly aware of these trends, and
are systematically cornering global water-supply
outlets around the world (from glaciers to rivers,
to aquifers, for example). The names of some of
these companies may be surprising: players such
as Nestle, Danon and Coca Cola. These companies
understand that trends in global population, water
tables, water consumption and pollution are
threatening their most important asset: water. Without
water there is no chocolate, yogurt or Coke. Nestle
and Danon have amassed huge ownership in water
rights around the world. Not only is water a major
ingredient in their products, but in a possible, if not
probable future scenario of scarcity, these companies
stand to make more money on water than on candy,
yogurt or pop.
Opportunities:
The water business is at the stage at which the
oil business was in 1920s through 1940s. In other
words, it is still a good time to get in. Water-related
businesses that could be growing during the next
hundred years include bottling, piping, desalinization,
plants and in select global location rain capture. Or,
as mentioned in the previous section, one can buy
land that has a river, lake or underground aquifer to
mine the resource or sell the water rights.
Water: The Preeminent 21st Century Commodity
Story,” concludes: “As urban populations continue
to grow, and as the standard of living of those
dwelling in cities improves, there will be a need for
more stringent environmental regulation, as well
as increased capital expenditures for water and
wastewater infrastructure.” These trends may present
many investment opportunities:
Filtration, desalinization, and other clean-water
technologies. Companies that have the ability to
supply clean drinking water may encounter steadily
increasing demand. In China, factories dump dirty
water into the Yangtze River, the main supplier of
water to Beijing, and other rivers in the country. Even
so, the city’s sewage systems operate way below
capacity. The government is investing 430 Yuan ($64
billion) to get the urban sewage treatment rate up
to 85 percent.5
The country is also encouraging the
publicly traded waste-water treatment companies
from other countries, which already do business
operations there. For instance, Veolia Environment, a
French company, helps municipalities and industries
throughout China renovate existing water and
wastewater plants and build and operate new ones.
General Electric in the U.S. is expanding its presence
in emerging markets such as China, and sees water
treatment as a major growth area. Beijing-based
Tri-Tech Holding, which trades on the NASDAQ, is
involved in water-resources management, water
and wastewater treatment, municipal infrastructure
construction, industrial production safety and
environmental improvement.
Bottling. New Zealand usually has a high rainfall
(although it, too, experienced drought recently).
One farmer in New Zealand invested in producing
his own bottled water, selling it in Hong Kong. He
makes more money on bottled water than in his
multigenerational farming business.
Distribution might be another opportunity to
into sources of fresh water. There might be a steady
stream of demand for companies that create tubes
and pipes through which water travels, as well as
makers of trucks and tanks.
Four Core Asset Classes for Multigenerational Prosperity
cont’d
4
Source: Global Water Intelligence.
5
6
7. Water: Mining “Blue Gold”
have been
available to investors for some time now by way
of ETF and CEF instruments. Their share prices,
rising tide in their share prices as effectively as
direct investments would. This is changing and will
continue to change, offering increased transparency
and a more indexed baseline against which to base
see a globally integrated market for fresh water within
the next 25 to 30 years. Once spot markets for water
are integrated, futures markets and other derivative
There may be different grades and types of fresh
water, just as we have light, sweet and heavy, sour
crude oil today. Consider how the Carbon Credits
market has evolved and they are not a resource.
Water as an asset class, in our view, eventually
could become the single most important physical
oil, copper, agricultural commodities and precious
metals.
Four Core Asset Classes for Multigenerational Prosperity
cont’d
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8. Food
The same population trends that will feed demand
and squeeze supply of land and water could impact
food.
As one of the four core, interrelated assets, food
production requires land, energy and water. Further,
the demand for food competes with the demand for
the other core resources. For instance, Brazil, which
is trying to become energy independent, generates
most of its power using ethanol from sugar cane. Not
only does this detract from sugar cane supplies that
could be used for food production for people (in spite
of the controversy around sugar’s impact on health),
but keeping up with demand has meant razing more
and more of the Amazon jungle to make way for
new farms. Furthermore, the use of pesticides and
water needed to grow sugar cane is polluting nearby
water supply supplies and impregnating the soil with
harmful pollutants, which combine with the acidic
Similar challenges face the U.S., where corn-based
ethanol is a huge business, not very well received
by farmers that who see the cost of grain rise to feed
their livestock.
One result: cars essentially compete with cows for
grain. A large percentage of all grain produced in the
U.S. is used to feed the 1 billion or so heads of cattle
raised in the U.S. The amount of water, energy, top
soil and other resources required to produce that
its commodity market price and the environmental
impact.
Opportunities:
You can hedge against possible food shortages
of food on your own land, for your own family’s
consumption should the supply of food be interrupted
or contaminated.
From a Four Asset Class perspective, however,
you may want to consider the importance of the
interrelation of the asset classes. Consider, for
example, the cycles of water and food (meat): Each
pound of meat requires about 2,500 gallons of water.
Compare that with just 49 gallons of water it takes to
produce one pound of apples. 6
from technologies that pollute the planet. What good
is enhancing one’s wealth by brilliantly investing in
companies or industries that produce products or
change? A multigenerational consciousness begs a
great-great grandchildren won’t have a planet to live
in? (For those of you who are concerned with social
impact of this, stay tuned to a forthcoming white
paper that will address this issue.)
Food technology
without soil), aeroponic (cultivating food without
point that one doesn’t even need land to grow food.
Consider investing in companies that are advancing
or using these technologies, and think of which
systems you may be able to develop on properties
you already own.
Those who choose to invest in food production
capital to such high-risk, high- reward investments
because food production and therefore prices are
tied to weather, which is impacted by global warming.
Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect many spikes in
the price of the soft commodities.
The same population trends that will feed demand and squeeze supply of
land and water could impact food…the use of pesticides and water needed to
grow sugar cane is polluting nearby water supply supplies...
Four Core Asset Classes for Multigenerational Prosperity
6
Tom Aldridge and Herb Schlubach, “Water Requirements for Food Production,” Soil and Water, no. 38 (Fall 1978), University of California
Cooperative Extension, 13017;; Paul and Anne Ehrlich, Population, Resources, Environment (San Francisco: Freemna, 1972), pg. 75-76.
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9. Energy
Energy is the most vital resource in today’s global
environment. Wars have been fought over access
to oil. Energy, also interdependent with the other
three core assets, is essential for desalinizing and
transporting water, for production and distribution
of food, and for every endeavor,
company and industry. There is little
indication that the world’s energy
needs, demand or consumption will
go away.
All the traditional sources of fuels
carbon-based sources, but even
solar, wind, ethanol and sugar
negative side effects. Their supplies
as demand for energy continues
to rise. But we believe the fuel
of the future will not be organic.
Technology will catalyze energy out of
the most elemental source: our planet’s magnetic
themselves into energy companies as they see their
evolving role as service providers and keepers of the
energy grid more than commodity-centric producers.
Non-organic fuel may not be viable at this time, but
there are ways to invest in all sorts of creative energy
technologies, including geothermal (drilling into the
ground and inserting a pipe to suck out hot air from
the earth’s hot core.) There are even companies
trying to develop processes to splice atoms and
draw energy from the plasma. Not
to mention the host of efforts in
nuclear reactors.
As with the other three asset
classes, it’s important to invest
in energy to protect and expand
your wealth and to ensure that you
and your family have access to
power despite potential shortages
or interruptions in service due
to extreme weather, political
tensions or terrorist attacks on
infrastructure. Despite gasoline
interruptions, such as those caused
by OPEC in the early and mid-1970s,
Hurricane Sandy, if you had been “off the grid” you
would have been less affected, if at all. And had you
had invested in energy companies such as Generaq
that capitalize on weather-pattern issues, you would
have made measurable returns.
Opportunities:
There is no way to tell right now
which technologies will emerge to
replace natural gas, coal, oil or any of
technologies we have today. But in the
not-too-distant future, one or more new
sources of energy likely will become
viable: whether fusion, electro-magnetic,
a new form of nuclear power, hydrogen or
some new discovery or invention not yet
on anyone’s drawing board.
You need to be invested in multiple forms of energy always,
and monitor the entire gamut of the energy industry.
Four Core Asset Classes for Multigenerational Prosperity
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10. Energy
You need to be invested in multiple forms of energy
always, and monitor the entire gamut of the energy
industry. That includes:
Production and delivery. Production of energy is
something that needs to be managed and processed
very in line with the demand. A power plant may have
the ability to produce 1 million kilowatt-hours a day,
but if on any particular day there is only demand for
750,000 kilowatt-hours, the other 250,000 kilowatts
cannot be stored until needed. Whatever is not used
is lost. Worse, there is a cost to not use excess
energy that cannot be absorbed by the grid. Con
Edison, for one, is better at managing excess supply
than Florida Power & Light. So you can short FPL
and go long on Con Ed.
Getting off the grid. Those with the means who
are looking to build a new home should build a
completely self-sustained home off the grid. First,
it’s important to select a plot of land with access to a
wind tunnel and good sun exposure. It also makes
sense to tap geo-thermal energy by capturing heat
from Earth’s core through a funnel and a series of
a free, constant source energy. If you live in the
northern hemisphere, geothermal vents might be the
way to go.
Private equity, hedge funds and traditional OTC.
Hire experts who trade energy. There’s a lot of
money to be made in the energy futures market, such
as coal and natural gas futures (fracking, despite all
the environmental disadvantages is not going to go
away with 100 years of stored natural gas under the
soil).
Access free due diligence. In the 1980s, one real
estate investor made a list of the top 10 corporations
billions by developing residential and commercial
buildings in those areas to anticipate all the new
workers those companies hire in those communities.
Starbucks did the same thing by basing its roadmap
of where it would open stores on where Chase
Starbucks correctly reasoned that Chase engaged
in careful due diligence before it opened a branch.
So wherever Chase moved, that’s where Starbucks
moved.
Today, real estate developers and some half a dozen
or so companies are buying land in small towns
along the carbon corridor, anticipating the need
for housing and infrastructure as the natural gas
gone from making $80,000 a year growing corn to
making millions by allowing gas companies to build
wells on their land. Thousands of construction crews
descend on these towns to dig the wells. They all
need a place to live, places to buy food and clothes,
health care, cars, and a host of other products and
services. Even after the two years it takes to build
a well and the construction workers move out,
maintenance crews will need to move in. And the
wells require one and a half times the number of
service workers as construction workers to keep
these little towns.
Fracking is changing the face of the U.S. So invest in
land, buildings, developers or real estate investment
trusts that follow the fracking map. Also consider
bond issues that are directly or indirectly in the
fracking space.
As an investor, you may need exposure to energy in
every way, shape or form: the greens (wind, solar,
hydrogen, nuclear, electro-magnetic), the grays
(natural gas and ethanol) and the blacks (oil and
coal).
Four Core Asset Classes for Multigenerational Prosperity
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11. Conclusions
There’s no way even the smartest among us can
become experts in each of the Four Core Asset
Classes. But given the demographic, technological,
political and other trends we have described, it would
be foolish to ignore the realities and the opportunities
that result.
land that contains some or all of these resources
for their family’s use, wealthy investors can invest
by providing these resources to a growing world
population.
The beauty of The Four Core Asset Classes is that
they can work separately or together, using capital
market instruments, corporations that dominate the
space, or by developing your own strategy of being
self-sustaining off the grid.
The beauty of The Four Core Asset Classes is that they can
work separately or together, using capital market instruments,
corporations that dominate the space...
11
12. Angelo J. Robles
(FOA), a global membership organization that provides private educational and networking forums with top
experts, plus thought leadership and proprietary research about and for multiple generations of wealthy families
FOA, he engaged in several successful entrepreneurial ventures: He founded the New England chapter of the
Hedge Fund Association (where he also served as president) and pioneered online retirement planning for
Fortune 1000 executives with two Internet startups: 401KRollover.com and IRARollovers.com.
and white papers that address the unique needs of ultra high net worth families in the U.S. and around the
sophisticated approaches to wealth protection and growth, philanthropy, technology, social media, legal, tax,
insurance and lifestyle concerns.
Bloomberg Radio & TV and quoted
in Thompson Reuters, Institutional Investor, Opalesque, Registered Rep, HFM Week, Investment News,
EurekaHedge, The Luxury Institute, Private Asset Management, The Greenwich Times and many others.
The views expressed herein are those of the author. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed
constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future
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The information in this report is based on data supplied by you and is intended to be used as a guide for your
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Individuals should consult their personal tax advisor before making any tax-related investment decisions.
This material does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the
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strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.
Author
12
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