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I.THOREAU’S SEARCH FOR PLACE:
From New York City (1843) to Walden Pond
III. PRESERVING THOREAU’S & OUR PLACE FROM
CLIMATE CHANGE
II. “MEN OF CONCORD” N. C. WYETH’S ILLUSTRATIONS
OF THOREAU’S JOUNALS
In the spring of 1843, Henry David Thoreau, 26 years
old, set off for New York City to seek his place in the
city’s sparkling literary scene.
Ralph Waldo Emerson had made arrangements
for Henry to live with Waldo’s brother Judge
William Emerson on Staten Island to tutor son
Willie.
Ralph Waldo Emerson with Brother William
From Staten Island’s natural beauty, Henry made frequent
trips to Manhattan to advance his ambition of becoming a
great writer.
Map of blue ferry route from Staten island to Manhattan
Thoreau met such literary figures as poet Walt Whitman,
Herman Melville, and Henry James (father of the novelist).
Poet Walt Whitman
Thoreau met editor of the Tribune Horace Greeley
Unfortunately Henry’s nature writing
was not well received in the city
dedicated to money and power: He wrote
to Emerson,
“Literature comes to a poor market here,
and even the little that I write is more
than will sell.”
Henry, searching for his individuality in
the crowds among the city’s affluence and
squalor wrote:
“The pigs in the street are the most
respectable part of the population. When
will the world learn that a million men are of
no importance compared with one man?”
Discouraged in December 1843, Thoreau returned
home to Concord, where he determined to “be
humbly who you are.”
In 1845, Henry found his place and voice in the
cabin he built on Walden Pond, where he
completed A Week…, his first drafts of Walden, and
Civil Disobedience.
Henry’s sojourn in New York provided an
experience of the most hectic and temporal of
cities that gave a strong impetus to his lifelong
project: cultivating the garden amid the machines.
I.THOREAU’S SEARCH FOR PLACE:
From New York City (1843) to Walden Pond
III. PRESERVING THOREAU’S & OUR PLACE FROM
CLIMATE CHANGE
II. “MEN OF CONCORD” N. C. WYETH’S ILLUSTRATIONS
OF THOREAU’S JOUNALS
THOREAU’S
CREATIVE
EXAMPLE
INSPIRED N.C.
WYETH’S ART
American Illustrator, Newell
Convers Wyeth, grew up in
Needham, MA. He studied painting
with Howard Pyle and then lived in
Chadds Ford, PA.
For many years he was a student
and admirer of Thoreau, whose spirit
became a part of him.
Henry: Herein you will find, I think, a
few echoes of our remembered New
England. If you do hear them, even
faintly, it will please me.
Affectionately,
Convers
Wyeth’s cousin, my grandfather
Henry Holzer, lived in Hyde Park,
MA, and was President of U. Holzer
Bookbinders, Inc.
Plate II.
THOREAU
FISHING
“Time is but the
stream I go a-fishing
in. I drink at it; but
while I drink I see
the sandy bottom
and detect how
shallow it is. Its thin
current slides away,
but eternity
remains.”
Walden
Plate III.
The Carpenters
Repairing
Hubbard’s Bridge
August 17, 1851. “…their
bench on the new planking
…in the sun and air, with no
railing to obstruct the view,
I was almost ready to
resolve that I would be a
carpenter and work on
bridges, to secure a
pleasant place to work.”
Plate IV
Thoreau and Miss
Mary Emerson
Mary Moody Emerson
(1774-1863) aunt of Ralph
Waldo Emerson, over whose
development she exercised a
strong influence.
November 13, 1851.
“ … She, more surely than
any other woman, gives her
companion occasion to utter
his best thought.
In spite of her biases, she
can entertain a large thought
with hospitability…“
Plate V
Mr. Alcott visiting tomb of
Dr. John Alcott in the
Granary Burying Ground in
Boston
August 11, 1852. “Alcott, the
spiritual philosopher, is, and has
been for some months, devoted
to the study of his own
genealogy,-he whom only the
genealogy of humanity, the
descent of man from God, should
concern…
He has visited the only bearer
of the Alcott name in Boston,---
though there is no evidence of
the slightest connection except
through Adam.”
Plate VI.
Thoreau and the Three
Reformers
June 17, 1853. Ultra-reformers,
lecturers on Slavery,
Temperance, the Church:
A.D. Foss, once a Baptist
minister in Hopkinton, NH;
Loring Moody, a traveling
pattern working chaplain;
& H. C. Wright, who shocks all
the old women with his infidel
writings. Wright, author of
A Kiss for a Blow, behaved as if
there were no alternative
between them, or as if I had
given him a blow. I would have
preferred a blow, but he was
bent on giving me a kiss, when
there was no quarrel between
us.
Plate VII.
The Muskrat-Hunters,
Goodwin & Haynes
May 1, 1854
They shoot at any rat that may
expose himself… One that they
had wounded looked exactly
like the end of an old rider
stripped of bark.
How pitiful a man looks about
this sport.
These men represent a class
which probably exists, even in
the most civilized community,
and allies it to the most savage.
Plate VIII.
Fishing Through the Ice
February 8, 1856
The fishermen agree in saying
that the pickerel have generally
been eating, and are full, when
they bite. Some think it is best to
cut holes the day before,
because the noise frightens
them.
E. Garfield says that his Uncle
Daniel was once scaling a
pickerel, when he pricked his
finger against the horn of a pout
which the pickerel had
swallowed. He himself killed a
pickerel with a paddle, in the act
of swallowing a large perch.
Plate IX.
Barefooted Brooks Clark Building Wall
October 20, 1857. “It pleased me to
see this cheery old man (~80)
enjoying the evening of his days…. It
is worth a thousand of the church’s
sacraments…
It was better than a prayerful mood.
It proves to me old age as tolerable,
as happy, as infancy.”
My grandfather, Henry Holzer’s
wheelbarrow.
Plate X
Johnny and his
Woodchuck-Skin Cap
February 29, 1860.
“Passed a very little boy in the
street, who had a home-made
cap of woodchuck-skin, which
his father had killed and cured,
and his mother had fashioned
into a nice warm cap…. So much
family history, the human
parents’ care of their young in
hard times.
The boy’s black eyes sparkled
beneath it, when I remarked on
its warmth, even as the
woodchuck’s might have done.
Such should be the history of
every piece of clothing that we
wear.”
Plate I.
“A man of certain
probity and
worth, immortal
and natural.”
Oxen (and horses)
were the sustainable
source of locomotive
energy since the
beginning of civilization
10,000 years ago.
Fossil fuel burning
emits CO2. These fuels
will be depleted in 100 -
200 years.
Miami Beach is a flood zone during King High Tides.
III.PRESERVING THOREAU’S & OUR PLACE FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
CO2 levels now
110 ppm above
the pre-
industrial
average
1875
• Carbon
isotope ratios
indicate the
CO2 increase
since 1850 is
from burning
~300 million yr
old fossil
fuels.
CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMPAND CO2 INCREASE
Average Temperature Increase 1 deg C
Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface.
2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.
27
During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the global
temperature rise (green line) by several centuries.
CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE.
CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature.
Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet). Flood stories
4 M PEOPLE 7 B
Ice Age
Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012)
CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S TILT & ORBIT TRIGGERD THE ICE AGE WARMING
28
At present rate
of 2.5 ppm
rise per year,
humans are
increasing
CO2 at a rate
300 times
faster than
the recovery
from the ice
age 18,000 -
10,000 years
ago.
CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS,
WILL REACH 1000 PPM IN 240 YEARS.
• Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm in 240 years.
• Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 - 450 ppm.
• Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm
-Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters higher.
Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS
RISING SEAS
WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING
Record & Hot, Winter 2015
31
WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING.
• Record-Cold and Snowfall in New
England during 2015 winter.
-Record high sea temps, 11.5 C, put more
water vapor (snow) in the atmosphere.
• Record-Hot West Has First 100-Degree
Temperature of 2015.
- CA 4 yr. drought longest in history.
32
A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made North Pole warm twice as
fast as the rest of the earth.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract
Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.
ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS
SATELITE PHOTO
2333
PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC
Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained
the low-pressure arctic
Lower pressure difference allows
waves of arctic air to invade the
South: Warmer & Colder Winters.
Cold Air Oscillates South from the Arctic
The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of our earth.
Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep
arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans.
A Wacky Jet Steam Is Making Our Weather Severe , Scientific American, Nov 18, 2014
2434
35
The jet stream that circles Earth's north pole travels west to east. But when the jet stream
interacts with a Rossby wave, as shown here, the winds can wander far north and south,
bringing frigid air to normally mild southern states. http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-
way/2014/02/16/277911739/warming-arctic-may-be-causing-jet-stream-to-lose-its-way 36
Social unrest accompanies food price increases.
Summer 2010 drought in Russia: No longer exported wheat.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/deja-food-will-social-unrest-surge-corn-prices-soar
The rate of sea
level increase
correlates with
the blue line of
CO2 increase.
Sea level rise is a proxy
for global temperature,
due to thermal
expansion (50%) &
the melting of ice (50%)
Sea level rise rate has
increased 4 times:
3.1 mm/year
( 1 ft/100 yr. ) now
from 0.8 mm/year in
1900
38
Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements
MELTING OF GREENLAND & ANTARCTICA IS RAISING SEA LEVELS FASTER
Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet
Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009
Greenland’s largest glacier is now flowing faster towards the
sea 4 times faster than in the 1990s..
Since Sandy, 2012, Federal Coastal Flood Insurance is up 2X - 10X
• Sea Levels could rise
as much as
3 to 15 feet in
50 to 150 years
• The Gulf Stream,
which warms
Northern Europe,
will slow & shut-
down.
• Referred Journal article
Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Mar. 2016 by retired
NASA scientist James
Hansen and 13 co-
authors.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/
doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from
paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern
observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous
James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4,
Valerie Masson-Delmotte5, Gary Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric
Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10, Evgeniya
Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12, Pushker Kharecha1,4, Allegra N.
Legrande4, Michael Bauer4,13, and Kwok-Wai Lo3,4
1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute,
New York, NY 10115, USA 2Department of Environmental Studies, University of
North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403, USA 3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA 5Institut Pierre Simon
Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette,
France 6Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Xi’an 710075, China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
CA 91109, USA 8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
9Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723,
Received: 11 Jun 2015 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul 2015Revised: 17 Feb 2016 – Accepted: 18 Feb 2016 – Published: 22 Mar 2016
Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft) by 2050. Could we take action to
prevent a 5 m (15 ft) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100 years.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., March 2016.
J. Hansen et. al.
1 M TIPPING LEVEL
Sea level rise of 2-4 feet will flood Boston & Cambridge. 43
TREADING WATER, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, FEB 2015
Teaching Climate Change to Skeptics
Forbes. Sept 9, 2013.
Carmen Nobel, Harvard Business School.
Predictions of massive flood losses for the world’s
136 largest coastal cities are US$60-$63 billion per
year in 2050 compared to $6 billion in 2005.
Failure to act could lead to global losses upwards of
$1 trillion annually.
REFERENCES: H. Paulson, M. Bloomberg.
www.riskybusiness.org
The Coming Climate Crash:
Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 Recession
By HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush.
Co-Author of www.RiskyBusiness.org JUNE 21, 2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-
2008-recession.html
“We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to
both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and
growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked.
A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to
develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create
jobs as we and other nations develop new energy products and
infrastructure.
Climate change is the challenge of our time. We’ve seen and felt the
costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the
climate bubble.”
10/9/15
www.
CitizensClimateLobby.org
- Revenue neutral
carbon fee with
dividend.
-Dividend would
be returned to
everyone.
-Stimulating
economy &
creating 2 million
jobs.
SOME CONCLUSIONS
1. WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING
-Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods, Snow
Atmosphere holds more water at higher temps.
-Dry areas, drier: Droughts, Wildfires
2. IF SEA LEVELS RISE BY 1 M, THERE WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TIME TO
PREVENT A RISE TO 5 M (15 FT)?
3. START PHASING-OUT FOSSIL FUEL
BURNING WITH CARBON FEE & DIVIDEND 48
Prophetic Pope Francis:
• MORAL IMPERATATIVE: Stop plundering
our planet for profit, the poor suffering
the most.
200 Page Encyclical
Laudato Si:
On Care for our
Common Home.
June 2015
THE “WICKED PROBLEM” OF CLIMATE CHANGE:
WHAT IS IT DOING TO US AND FOR US?
62nd Conference of the Institute on Religion in an Age
of Science, www.iras.org
June 24—July 1, 2017. Star Island off Portsmouth, NH.
• Climate change is complex with causes and consequences in
economic, ecological, ethical, and technological realms.
• How can global warming be a catalyst for societal and
spiritual transformation?
IRAS CLIMATE CONFERENC SPEAKERS TO DATE
Theologian,
Rev. Dr. Matthew Fox
Chaplain,
Rev. Dr. Mary Westfall
Scientists: Paul H. Carr,PhD;
Robert S. Pikart,PhD; Emily
Austin,PhD; Solomon H. Katz,PhD;
Bill Shoemaker,PhD.
Star Island 200 year-old Chapel
S Sunrise on Star Island
SUNSET OVER PORTSMOUTH, NH FROM STAR ISLAND
RISE Course No. 2098
Science & Religion: Henry D. Thoreau & the Future
Wednesdays 10:45-12:15, October 19 – Nov 16, 2016
1. Thoreau: From Mystical to Mathematical Beauty
2. Thoreau’s Search for Place, Creative Example, & Climate Change.
3. Might Thoreau’s “Civil Disobedience” improve income inequality?
4. Has religion helped or hindered the development of science?
5. The Future of Religion and Science: Beautiful Music, Math, Myth.

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I. Thoureau's Seach for Place, II> "Men of Concord" Illustrated by N. C. Wyeth, III. Preserving Our Place from Climate Change

  • 1. I.THOREAU’S SEARCH FOR PLACE: From New York City (1843) to Walden Pond III. PRESERVING THOREAU’S & OUR PLACE FROM CLIMATE CHANGE II. “MEN OF CONCORD” N. C. WYETH’S ILLUSTRATIONS OF THOREAU’S JOUNALS
  • 2. In the spring of 1843, Henry David Thoreau, 26 years old, set off for New York City to seek his place in the city’s sparkling literary scene.
  • 3. Ralph Waldo Emerson had made arrangements for Henry to live with Waldo’s brother Judge William Emerson on Staten Island to tutor son Willie. Ralph Waldo Emerson with Brother William
  • 4. From Staten Island’s natural beauty, Henry made frequent trips to Manhattan to advance his ambition of becoming a great writer.
  • 5. Map of blue ferry route from Staten island to Manhattan
  • 6. Thoreau met such literary figures as poet Walt Whitman, Herman Melville, and Henry James (father of the novelist). Poet Walt Whitman
  • 7. Thoreau met editor of the Tribune Horace Greeley
  • 8. Unfortunately Henry’s nature writing was not well received in the city dedicated to money and power: He wrote to Emerson, “Literature comes to a poor market here, and even the little that I write is more than will sell.” Henry, searching for his individuality in the crowds among the city’s affluence and squalor wrote:
  • 9. “The pigs in the street are the most respectable part of the population. When will the world learn that a million men are of no importance compared with one man?”
  • 10. Discouraged in December 1843, Thoreau returned home to Concord, where he determined to “be humbly who you are.” In 1845, Henry found his place and voice in the cabin he built on Walden Pond, where he completed A Week…, his first drafts of Walden, and Civil Disobedience. Henry’s sojourn in New York provided an experience of the most hectic and temporal of cities that gave a strong impetus to his lifelong project: cultivating the garden amid the machines.
  • 11. I.THOREAU’S SEARCH FOR PLACE: From New York City (1843) to Walden Pond III. PRESERVING THOREAU’S & OUR PLACE FROM CLIMATE CHANGE II. “MEN OF CONCORD” N. C. WYETH’S ILLUSTRATIONS OF THOREAU’S JOUNALS
  • 13. American Illustrator, Newell Convers Wyeth, grew up in Needham, MA. He studied painting with Howard Pyle and then lived in Chadds Ford, PA. For many years he was a student and admirer of Thoreau, whose spirit became a part of him. Henry: Herein you will find, I think, a few echoes of our remembered New England. If you do hear them, even faintly, it will please me. Affectionately, Convers Wyeth’s cousin, my grandfather Henry Holzer, lived in Hyde Park, MA, and was President of U. Holzer Bookbinders, Inc.
  • 14. Plate II. THOREAU FISHING “Time is but the stream I go a-fishing in. I drink at it; but while I drink I see the sandy bottom and detect how shallow it is. Its thin current slides away, but eternity remains.” Walden
  • 15. Plate III. The Carpenters Repairing Hubbard’s Bridge August 17, 1851. “…their bench on the new planking …in the sun and air, with no railing to obstruct the view, I was almost ready to resolve that I would be a carpenter and work on bridges, to secure a pleasant place to work.”
  • 16. Plate IV Thoreau and Miss Mary Emerson Mary Moody Emerson (1774-1863) aunt of Ralph Waldo Emerson, over whose development she exercised a strong influence. November 13, 1851. “ … She, more surely than any other woman, gives her companion occasion to utter his best thought. In spite of her biases, she can entertain a large thought with hospitability…“
  • 17. Plate V Mr. Alcott visiting tomb of Dr. John Alcott in the Granary Burying Ground in Boston August 11, 1852. “Alcott, the spiritual philosopher, is, and has been for some months, devoted to the study of his own genealogy,-he whom only the genealogy of humanity, the descent of man from God, should concern… He has visited the only bearer of the Alcott name in Boston,--- though there is no evidence of the slightest connection except through Adam.”
  • 18. Plate VI. Thoreau and the Three Reformers June 17, 1853. Ultra-reformers, lecturers on Slavery, Temperance, the Church: A.D. Foss, once a Baptist minister in Hopkinton, NH; Loring Moody, a traveling pattern working chaplain; & H. C. Wright, who shocks all the old women with his infidel writings. Wright, author of A Kiss for a Blow, behaved as if there were no alternative between them, or as if I had given him a blow. I would have preferred a blow, but he was bent on giving me a kiss, when there was no quarrel between us.
  • 19. Plate VII. The Muskrat-Hunters, Goodwin & Haynes May 1, 1854 They shoot at any rat that may expose himself… One that they had wounded looked exactly like the end of an old rider stripped of bark. How pitiful a man looks about this sport. These men represent a class which probably exists, even in the most civilized community, and allies it to the most savage.
  • 20. Plate VIII. Fishing Through the Ice February 8, 1856 The fishermen agree in saying that the pickerel have generally been eating, and are full, when they bite. Some think it is best to cut holes the day before, because the noise frightens them. E. Garfield says that his Uncle Daniel was once scaling a pickerel, when he pricked his finger against the horn of a pout which the pickerel had swallowed. He himself killed a pickerel with a paddle, in the act of swallowing a large perch.
  • 21. Plate IX. Barefooted Brooks Clark Building Wall October 20, 1857. “It pleased me to see this cheery old man (~80) enjoying the evening of his days…. It is worth a thousand of the church’s sacraments… It was better than a prayerful mood. It proves to me old age as tolerable, as happy, as infancy.” My grandfather, Henry Holzer’s wheelbarrow.
  • 22. Plate X Johnny and his Woodchuck-Skin Cap February 29, 1860. “Passed a very little boy in the street, who had a home-made cap of woodchuck-skin, which his father had killed and cured, and his mother had fashioned into a nice warm cap…. So much family history, the human parents’ care of their young in hard times. The boy’s black eyes sparkled beneath it, when I remarked on its warmth, even as the woodchuck’s might have done. Such should be the history of every piece of clothing that we wear.”
  • 23. Plate I. “A man of certain probity and worth, immortal and natural.” Oxen (and horses) were the sustainable source of locomotive energy since the beginning of civilization 10,000 years ago. Fossil fuel burning emits CO2. These fuels will be depleted in 100 - 200 years.
  • 24. Miami Beach is a flood zone during King High Tides. III.PRESERVING THOREAU’S & OUR PLACE FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 25. CO2 levels now 110 ppm above the pre- industrial average 1875 • Carbon isotope ratios indicate the CO2 increase since 1850 is from burning ~300 million yr old fossil fuels.
  • 26. CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMPAND CO2 INCREASE Average Temperature Increase 1 deg C
  • 27. Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface. 2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere. 27
  • 28. During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries. CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE. CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature. Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet). Flood stories 4 M PEOPLE 7 B Ice Age Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012) CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S TILT & ORBIT TRIGGERD THE ICE AGE WARMING 28
  • 29. At present rate of 2.5 ppm rise per year, humans are increasing CO2 at a rate 300 times faster than the recovery from the ice age 18,000 - 10,000 years ago. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS, WILL REACH 1000 PPM IN 240 YEARS.
  • 30. • Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm in 240 years. • Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 - 450 ppm. • Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm -Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters higher. Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS
  • 31. RISING SEAS WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING Record & Hot, Winter 2015 31
  • 32. WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING. • Record-Cold and Snowfall in New England during 2015 winter. -Record high sea temps, 11.5 C, put more water vapor (snow) in the atmosphere. • Record-Hot West Has First 100-Degree Temperature of 2015. - CA 4 yr. drought longest in history. 32
  • 33. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS SATELITE PHOTO 2333
  • 34. PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained the low-pressure arctic Lower pressure difference allows waves of arctic air to invade the South: Warmer & Colder Winters. Cold Air Oscillates South from the Arctic The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of our earth. Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans. A Wacky Jet Steam Is Making Our Weather Severe , Scientific American, Nov 18, 2014 2434
  • 35. 35
  • 36. The jet stream that circles Earth's north pole travels west to east. But when the jet stream interacts with a Rossby wave, as shown here, the winds can wander far north and south, bringing frigid air to normally mild southern states. http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo- way/2014/02/16/277911739/warming-arctic-may-be-causing-jet-stream-to-lose-its-way 36
  • 37. Social unrest accompanies food price increases. Summer 2010 drought in Russia: No longer exported wheat. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/deja-food-will-social-unrest-surge-corn-prices-soar
  • 38. The rate of sea level increase correlates with the blue line of CO2 increase. Sea level rise is a proxy for global temperature, due to thermal expansion (50%) & the melting of ice (50%) Sea level rise rate has increased 4 times: 3.1 mm/year ( 1 ft/100 yr. ) now from 0.8 mm/year in 1900 38
  • 39. Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements MELTING OF GREENLAND & ANTARCTICA IS RAISING SEA LEVELS FASTER Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009 Greenland’s largest glacier is now flowing faster towards the sea 4 times faster than in the 1990s.. Since Sandy, 2012, Federal Coastal Flood Insurance is up 2X - 10X
  • 40. • Sea Levels could rise as much as 3 to 15 feet in 50 to 150 years • The Gulf Stream, which warms Northern Europe, will slow & shut- down. • Referred Journal article Atmos. Chem. Phys. Mar. 2016 by retired NASA scientist James Hansen and 13 co- authors.
  • 41. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4, Valerie Masson-Delmotte5, Gary Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10, Evgeniya Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12, Pushker Kharecha1,4, Allegra N. Legrande4, Michael Bauer4,13, and Kwok-Wai Lo3,4 1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA 2Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403, USA 3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA 5Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France 6Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710075, China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA 8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA 9Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723, Received: 11 Jun 2015 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul 2015Revised: 17 Feb 2016 – Accepted: 18 Feb 2016 – Published: 22 Mar 2016
  • 42. Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft) by 2050. Could we take action to prevent a 5 m (15 ft) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100 years. Atmos. Chem. Phys., March 2016. J. Hansen et. al. 1 M TIPPING LEVEL
  • 43. Sea level rise of 2-4 feet will flood Boston & Cambridge. 43
  • 44. TREADING WATER, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, FEB 2015
  • 45. Teaching Climate Change to Skeptics Forbes. Sept 9, 2013. Carmen Nobel, Harvard Business School. Predictions of massive flood losses for the world’s 136 largest coastal cities are US$60-$63 billion per year in 2050 compared to $6 billion in 2005. Failure to act could lead to global losses upwards of $1 trillion annually. REFERENCES: H. Paulson, M. Bloomberg. www.riskybusiness.org
  • 46. The Coming Climate Crash: Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 Recession By HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush. Co-Author of www.RiskyBusiness.org JUNE 21, 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the- 2008-recession.html “We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked. A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs as we and other nations develop new energy products and infrastructure. Climate change is the challenge of our time. We’ve seen and felt the costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.”
  • 47. 10/9/15 www. CitizensClimateLobby.org - Revenue neutral carbon fee with dividend. -Dividend would be returned to everyone. -Stimulating economy & creating 2 million jobs.
  • 48. SOME CONCLUSIONS 1. WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING -Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods, Snow Atmosphere holds more water at higher temps. -Dry areas, drier: Droughts, Wildfires 2. IF SEA LEVELS RISE BY 1 M, THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TIME TO PREVENT A RISE TO 5 M (15 FT)? 3. START PHASING-OUT FOSSIL FUEL BURNING WITH CARBON FEE & DIVIDEND 48
  • 49. Prophetic Pope Francis: • MORAL IMPERATATIVE: Stop plundering our planet for profit, the poor suffering the most. 200 Page Encyclical Laudato Si: On Care for our Common Home. June 2015
  • 50. THE “WICKED PROBLEM” OF CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT IS IT DOING TO US AND FOR US? 62nd Conference of the Institute on Religion in an Age of Science, www.iras.org June 24—July 1, 2017. Star Island off Portsmouth, NH. • Climate change is complex with causes and consequences in economic, ecological, ethical, and technological realms. • How can global warming be a catalyst for societal and spiritual transformation?
  • 51. IRAS CLIMATE CONFERENC SPEAKERS TO DATE Theologian, Rev. Dr. Matthew Fox Chaplain, Rev. Dr. Mary Westfall Scientists: Paul H. Carr,PhD; Robert S. Pikart,PhD; Emily Austin,PhD; Solomon H. Katz,PhD; Bill Shoemaker,PhD.
  • 52. Star Island 200 year-old Chapel
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55. S Sunrise on Star Island
  • 56. SUNSET OVER PORTSMOUTH, NH FROM STAR ISLAND
  • 57. RISE Course No. 2098 Science & Religion: Henry D. Thoreau & the Future Wednesdays 10:45-12:15, October 19 – Nov 16, 2016 1. Thoreau: From Mystical to Mathematical Beauty 2. Thoreau’s Search for Place, Creative Example, & Climate Change. 3. Might Thoreau’s “Civil Disobedience” improve income inequality? 4. Has religion helped or hindered the development of science? 5. The Future of Religion and Science: Beautiful Music, Math, Myth.