Bicknell's Thrush, a rare bird with a global population under 50,000, faces significant conservation challenges due to habitat loss, climate change, and limited research data. Major breeding and wintering areas are threatened by environmental changes and human activity, prompting the creation of an International Bicknell's Thrush Conservation Group (IBTCG) aimed at protecting and restoring critical habitats. Conservation efforts will focus on monitoring population trends, habitat management, and enhancing collaboration among various environmental organizations.

1. Bicknell’s Thrush: Conservation in the Face of Long Odds Chris Rimmer, Julie Hart, Randy Dettmers, Becky Whittam, Kent McFarland, and Yves Aubry

2. Why Bicknell’s Thrush? Rare global population < 50,000 individuals Ranges restricted and fragmented occupies habitat “islands” ~90% winter population on Hispaniola At risk population declines multiple habitat threats in N. America severe, ongoing winter habitat loss Reclusive and Enigmatic many obstacles to understanding status few baseline population data = Vulnerable

3. Partners In Flight = North America Watch List IUCN Red List = Vulnerable ABC/Audubon WatchList = Red List Canada = Candidate for Federal Listing USFWS = Special Concern ME, NH, NY, VT = Special Concern www.bicknellsthrush.org

4. George J. Wallace c. 1935 Eugene P. Bicknell c. 1881

5. The New Generation of BITHnologists Henri R. Ouellet, 1995

6. BITH Migratory Range “ Islands” north and south Migration routes/patterns = ??

7. Bicknell’s Thrush Distribution in the U.S. 5 km² 263 km² 88 km² 496 km² 261 km²

9. Threats to Breeding Habitats

10. “ Only a freak ornithologist would think of leaving the trails for more than a few feet.” George J. Wallace, 1936

12. BITH habitat declines sharply with rising temperature 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 Mean July Temp. Change (°C ) Relative to 1950-1980 BITH Habitat (1,000 ha) Low emissions 2.8°C High emissions 5.9°C

13. Complex Breeding System Polygynandry: Both males and females mate with multiple partners; paternity is highly mixed Nesting Female Male Home Range r r r r r

14. n=4 n=4 n=10 n=3 n=5 n=7 Overall mean = 2.2 males : female Breeding Adult Sex Ratios

15. Hispaniola: winter stronghold of BITH Dominican Republic Haiti DR: ~10% original forest remains Haiti: 1-2% original forest left

16. Limiting Factors in Winter Habitats

17. % Unprotected Wet Broadleaf Forest 65.9 Dense Conifer Forest 39.3 Semi-humid Broadleaf Forest 75.9

18. Strong evidence that females are limited during annual cycle When and where?

19. Where are Females Limited? Nest 1:1 sex ratio in clutch Fledge Post Fledging Dispersal 1:1 1:1 Fall Migration 1:1 ? 1:1 ? Ratio ? Spring Migration Ratio ? Breeding Grounds >2:1 Cloud Forest >1:1 Rain Forest <1:1 Habitat and Territory Selection

20. What do we know about BITH populations?

21. Bicknell’s Thrush in the White Mountains: 7% Annual Decline 9 Years 17 Routes 2002-2008 declines in Canada: New Brunswick – 20%, Nova Scotia – 19%

22. BITH relative abundance on U.S. routes surveyed annually, 2001-2008

23. www.bicknellsthrush.org/ International Bicknell’s Thrush Conservation Group (IBTCG) www.bicknellsthrush.org Developing a Conservation Action Plan

24. IBTCG structure: inclusive, flexible Breeding and Migration Research Breeding and Migration Forestry Wintering Grounds Coordination Committee Breeding and Migration Monitoring

25. Over-winter Survival Fecundity Autumn Migratory Survival & Seasonal Interactions Spring Migratory Survival & Seasonal Interactions Winter Habitat Amount/quality Direct Mortality Physiological Condition Introduced Predators More Catastrophic Weather Atmospheric Phenomenon (Hg, Pb, Acid Rain) Climate Change Increased Drought & Wind Natural Fires Subsistence Farming & Logging Disease, Parasites, etc. Feral Domestic Animals Human-caused Fires Low Genetic Diversity Breeding Habitat Amount/quality Direct Mortality Breeding Season Survival + Physiological Condition Atmospheric Phenomenon (Hg, Pb, Acid Rain) Climate Change Cone-Squirrel Cycle Disruption Forest Conversion Increased Rain & Wind Forestry Practices Incidental Take Forest Succession Male-biased Sex Ratio Human Disturbance Industrial Development Disease, Parasites, etc. Coastal Development Δ in Prey Emergence Forest Pathogens

26. Over-winter Survival Fecundity Autumn Migratory Survival & Seasonal Interactions Spring Migratory Survival & Seasonal Interactions Amount of Winter Habitat Direct Mortality Physiological Condition Amount of Breeding Habitat Direct Mortality Breeding Season Survival + Physiological Condition Track effects of climate change ID Important Migratory Sites Determine Forestry Effects Assess Effects of Acid Deposition Monitor Responses to Development Track effects of climate change Develop Forest Mgmt Guidelines and Habitat Supply Analysis ID Where Deforestation is Occurring Prioritize Remaining Forest for Protection Habitat Use and Survival Relative to Land Use and Condition Protection & Restoration of Key Habitats

27. Primary IBTCG Goals Estimate the global population of BITH estimate with 95% CI, which itself is ≤ 20% of population estimate (e.g., 95% CI of 45–55,000 individuals on a total population est. of 50,000) * Increase global population of BITH by 50% over the next 50 years Determine BITH population status annually density and abundance indices with CV < 0.2 site-specific occurrence data to map rangewide breeding distribution Document BITH population trends over time implement Mountain Birdwatch Version 2.0 in 2010 80% power to detect > 3% annual change over 50 years at P < 0.1 Relate BITH population trends and demographics to limiting factors e.g., habitat/landscape characteristics, climate, red squirrel abundance, Hg exposure, Ca availability, forestry practices, winter habitat extent

28. Wintering Grounds Conservation Actions Protect, restore, and manage current and potential winter habitat Investigate overwinter survival and demography relative to local habitat condition and quality (connectivity, seasonal carry-over effects) Expand resources and reach of BITH Habitat Protection Fund Clarify BITH distribution and habitat use on other Greater Antillean islands Involve and build capacity of in-country partners

29. Can we get there from here?? A Conservation Triage Approach? How optimally allocate scarce resources of time, capacity and $$? Prioritize conservation actions that will produce greatest effects Continually measure and evaluate outcomes Expand yet focus research and monitoring Develop a multilateral, hemispheric “business plan” Ride bicycles…

32. IBTCG Partners American Bird Conservancy Atlantic Coast Joint Venture Audubon New York Bird Studies Canada Canadian Wildlife Service Cornell University Fornebu Lumber Maine Dept. Inland Fisheries & Wildlife National Aviary National Park Service New Brunswick Dept Natural Resources New Hampshire Audubon New Hampshire Fish & Game Dept. NewPage Port Hawkesbury Corp Parks Canada Plum Creek Regroupement QuébecOiseaux SUNY—Environmental Science and Forestry University of Massachusetts University of New Brunswick U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service U.S. Forest Service Intl. Program Vermont Center for Ecostudies Vermont Fish & Wildlife Dept.