SlideShare a Scribd company logo
[object Object],[object Object]
“ What a business needs the most for its decisions, especially strategic ones, is data about what goes on outside of it”  - Peter Drucker  [email_address]
[email_address]
Five Key Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[email_address]
Demographic Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[email_address] Implications… Pressure on resources, climate & eco-systems (and healthcare/pensions) Skilled labour shortages and wage rises in most markets (unless economy slumps) Blurring of work/home behaviour (rise of the digital nomad & synchronous screen use) Generational shifts in how people talk to one another (decline of voice communication) Ageing + speed of change/complexity is driving an interest in simplicity & control Not everywhere
[email_address]
[email_address]
Power Shift Eastwards ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[email_address] Implications… Procurement of key resources is becoming a strategic issue  Increased outsourcing (back-office) & collaboration opportunities  New low-cost & niche competition (fewer but larger competitors overall) New BRIC competition without legacy or CSR issues (+ rise of BRIC M&A) Western political pressure for back-sourcing (‘industrial provenance’)
[email_address]
Major economies’ share of global GDP,  0-2005 [email_address]
Global Connectivity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[email_address] Implications… Demand for 24/7 mobile access to all products & services (+ life-streaming of ‘me’) Mass personalisation of products & services (especially location-based services) Data flood + time famine + complexity creating demand for simplicity, editing & control Touch interfaces, voice control, context awareness, telepresence & data-visualisation Growth of new business models and payment systems (e.g. micro-payments & NFC)
[email_address]
[email_address]
Sustainability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[email_address] Implications… Growth in CSR (e.g. pressure for total transparency and ‘life story labeling’)  Potential shifts in disease patterns caused by climate change Growth in green computing and the ‘green cloud’ More threats to infrastructure caused by wild weather & “100-year events” Mass-migration caused by weather events could trigger widespread unrest
[email_address]
GRIN Technologies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[email_address] Implications… Further growth of automation,virtualisation, augmented reality and artificial intelligence Emerge of the internet of things (growth in wearable computers & implanted devices)  Digitalisation + the internet removing barriers of entry for many markets 3D-printing and nano-manufacturing could turn the world upside down Convergence of all of the above…
[email_address]
[email_address]
But… [email_address]
[email_address] A case of poor forecasting, from Beck, 1983. The Perils of Prediction
[email_address]
[email_address]
“ We shall never escape the ultimate dilemma that all our knowledge is about the past and all our decisions are about the future” -Ian Wilson, American Association for the Advancement of Science  [email_address]
Questions? [email_address]

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Richard Watson at the Asia Pacific Summit 2011

Editor's Notes

  1. Geopolitical risks (shocks) - economy much more open to distant shocks