Small Cell Forum MWC 2017 Speaker Presentation: Caroline Gabriel, Rethink Technology Research

1. Small Cells:
the bridge between 4G and 5G
Caroline Gabriel, Research Director
RethinkTechnology Research

2. Path to 5G
Long survival for LTE
NTT Docomo
DeutscheTelekom
Variable timescales for 5G
Leading use cases – fixed
wireless, large events
45% of MNOs will wait
after 2023 to make first
moves
But definitive 5G
elements will start earlier
– C-RAN, density, MEC
Many of these start in small
cell layer, and will reshape it
RETHINK TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH 2016
8
79
69
47
16
13
45
5
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5G radio Dense HetNet C-RAN and MEC
%ofMNOs Before 2020 2020-2023 2024 and later
% of MNOs planning to embark on 5G and HetNet. Source:
Rethink

3. Operator priorities
▪ Densification
▪ Effective way to address data surge
▪ Efficient use of spectrum
▪ New services and revenues
▪ Indoor and remote coverage
▪ Essential for enterprise and M2M
▪ First mover advantage
▪ Virtualization
▪ Migration path to 5G
▪ Some MNOs want to focus on LTE for many years
▪ But need smooth migration at the right time
▪ Interoperability and future-proofing
The answer: small cell HetNet
45
42
8
16
12
4
8
12
84
88
58
80
72
76
68
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%ofMNOs
2016 2020
% of MNOs planning to deploy key HetNet enablers by 2016 and
2020. Source: Rethink

4. Key enablers for
operator
network
strategies
MNOs – sustain and expand MBB
models, add new revenue streams,
reduce cost
Challenger operators
94
44
31 29
21 19 18 18 15 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%ofMNOs
Drivers to deploy dense networks Source: Rethink 2016
Key enablers – density, virtualization,
openness – not all about 5G

5. Densification
Now
Dense HetNet
5G
Hyperdensity
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
,000cells
Hyperdense Dense Medium dense Non-dense
Deployment of small cells by density Source: Rethink

6. Virtualization
Now
nFAPI, clusters
5G
Multilayered C-RAN
Centralized local
RAN
Enterprise
efficiencies
Virtualized local
RAN
Enterprise subnets
Centralized macro
RAN
Resource
efficiencies
Virtualized macro
RAN
MEC support,
many traffic types
Common
management
Massive capacity
Full migration
Network slicing

7. Openness
Now
SDOs, interfaces
5G
Open source, APIs
Huge number of
moving parts,
dynamic allocation,
near-real time
response
Open frameworks
essential

8. But barriers
remain
Lowering barriers to dense HetNet
now will ease the path to 5G and
accelerate timelines for advanced
networks
25
38
21
16
9
42
22
26
8
24
32
37
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
<1 year 1-2 years 3-4 years Longer
%ofMNOs
Ideal Likely Worst case
Rethink operator survey Q416 – timelines to densify

9. Who will be the operators?
▪ Virtualization, MEC and slicing all rely on
small cells
▪ Enterprise requirements
▪ Vertical market networks
▪ Rail, auto, factory
▪ Web giants
▪ Convergence and other infrastructure
owners
▪ MNO broadband models – opportunity or
barrier?
▪ Flexible, interoperable HetNet leading to
many subnets and then slicing
Source: Netmanias

10. Questions?