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Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP
Resource Gap for Public Sector
Provision of the Essential Service
Package in Bangladesh, 2017-2022
1. Introduction
The Government of Bangladesh (GOB) is working
towards achieving universal health coverage (UHC)
by 2030 as part of attaining Target 3.8 of the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).1, 2, 3 The
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW)
developed the first Essential Service Package (ESP)
for Bangladesh in 1998,4 and has updated it over the
years to adjust for changing disease burden trends
and population needs. In 2016, MOHFW updated
the ESP significantly in preparation for the 4th Health,
Population, and Nutrition Sector Programme 2017-
2022 (4th HPNSP),5, 6 which includes UHC as a key
focus. The MOHFW aimed to design a well-defined,
cost-effective, and implementable ESP to ensure
equitable access to quality health, nutrition, and
population services.7 The updated 2016 ESP is a
critical step towards the GOB’s commitment to
universal access to the most essential health
services. The ESP consists of five core services, as
well as management of common conditions,
integrated behavior change communication (BCC),
and three support services (see Box 1). Within the
ESP, there are 232 service interventions with
relevant delivery channels for each (from a list of ten
channels, covering the community through to
district hospitals). The 4th HPNSP includes plans and
targets for ESP implementation, as part of its
operational plans (OPs) in the Programme
Implementation Plan (PIP).
Since 2016, USAID’s Health Finance and
Governance (HFG) project, in partnership with the
World Health Organization (WHO) and the
International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease
Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), have been
supporting the MOHFW’s Planning Wing and Health
Economics Unit (HEU) to estimate the cost of
providing the ESP through the public sector as per
the plans and targets of the 4th HPNSP. Using
findings from the costing study (henceforth
MOHFW’s 2018 ESP costing report),8 HFG
conducted a further analysis to determine the
resource gap for public sector provision of the ESP
in Bangladesh using the PIP and OPs of the 4th
HPNSP as the basis.
This analysis continues HFG’s support to the
MOHFW and GOB towards evidence-based
planning and strengthening Bangladesh’s health
system for UHC. HFG also conducted a similar
resource gap analysis for tuberculosis (TB)
Box 1. Bangladesh ESP updated in 2016
 Five core services
 Maternal, Neonatal, Child and Adolescent
Health (MNCAH)
 Family Planning (FP)
 Nutrition
 Communicable Diseases
 Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)
 Management of other common conditions
 Support services:
 Laboratory
 Radiology
 Pharmacy
 Integrated BCC
 Provided through ten delivery channels
2 Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP
and expanded programme on immunization (EPI) in
Bangladesh.9, 10 Please see the full report for
complete details on methods, limitations, and results
for resource gap analysis for ESP, TB, and EPI in
Bangladesh.11
This brief provides an overview of the resource
gap analysis for the ESP, including data
estimates for GOB and donors, and presents the
calculated resource gap for public sector
provision of the ESP for the period 2017-2022.
2. Objectives
The analysis had the following objectives
 To generate resource gap estimates by
consolidating data on resources available and
estimated costs for the ESP service provision
per the 4th HPNSP.
 To support the GOB in understanding
additional resource requirements and facilitate
improved budget planning by showing the
funding flows and allocation across funding
sources and priority areas for the ESP
provision.
 To assist the GOB to strategically and
holistically improve domestic resource
mobilization for the ESP, and to plan for
eventual transition from donor financing.
HFG designed this analysis to answer the following
questions:
a) What resources are available over 2017-
2022 to fund the ESP?
b) What, if any, is the resource gap for the ESP
service provision over 2017-2022?
3. Methodology
HFG followed a rigorous methodology, using an
approach from similar resource modeling exercises
for HIV, TB, malaria, and nutrition programmes in
countries undergoing donor transitions.12, 13, 14 This
analysis applied a simple analytic framework to
estimate the future resource gap (if any) for the ESP
in Bangladesh. The framework includes funding flows
for the health sector in Bangladesh and a core
formula for resource gap analysis, as shown in Figure
1.
Components of the framework are explained below.
(A) The allocated resources for ESP. This includes
two components:
 (A.R) Revenue budget is the fixed budget
allocation by GOB. It is allocated primarily
for human resources (HR) as salaries,
allowances, and other benefits (which
constitute about 90% of the revenue budget).
In addition, a small portion is allocated for
repairs, maintenance, supplies, and services
for health facilities.
 (A1) GOB contribution to MOHFW
for the ESP includes funding allocated by
GOB through the revenue budget.
Figure 1: Analytic Framework for Resource Gap Analysis
(A2)
Donor
Contribution
(A1)
GoB
Contribution
(C)
RESOURCE
GAP for
ESP
(B)
Cost of ESP
Service
Provision
(A)
Allocated Resources for
ESP
(A.R)
Revenue
Budget
(A.D)
Development
Budget
Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP 3
 (A.D) Development budget is the more
flexible budget compared to the revenue budget.
This is channeled through the sector programme,
the 4th HPNSP; it covers the programmatic
aspects of the health system, such as training,
research and development, drugs and supplies,
supportive equipment, and monitoring and
evaluation.
 (A1) GOB contribution to MOHFW for
the ESP, also includes funding allocated by
GOB through development budget.
 (A2) Donor contribution includes external
resources from development partners
allocated as part of the development budget.
(B) Cost of ESP Service Provision was obtained
from the MOHFW’s 2018 ESP costing report
which estimated the cost of ESP services in the
public sector in Bangladesh.15
This study used
the OneHealth Tool (OHT) to estimate the
costs of each ESP core services, as well as the
cost of ESP interventions16
and the required
health system costs to implement these services.
(C) Resource gap for ESP is calculated as the
difference between the allocated resources from
the GOB and from donors for the ESP (A), and
the estimated cost of delivering ESP services
(B). This gap represents the amount of
resources the GOB will need to mobilize for
provision of the ESP, as per the PIP of the 4th
HPNSP.
4. Data Sources and Analysis
For this analysis, data was compiled from multiple
sources, as shown in Figure 2.
Information on allocated resources (A) was
extracted from revenue and development budgets:
 Revenue budget (A.R) data was compiled
from Bangladesh’s annual budget books 2017-18
for the health services division (HSD) and health
education and family planning division
(HE&FPD).17, 18
The revised budget for FY2016-
17 and the intended budget for FY2017-18 were
extracted from these documents. We extracted
budget amounts for ten different types of health
facilities, and for each type of health facility, the
budget was provided in six different categories:
officer salaries, employee salaries, allowances,
supplies and services, repairs and maintenance,
and assets collection and procurement. Revenue
budget totals for FY2018-2019 to FY 2021-2022
were projected using linear best fit for actual
expenditure data, including fiscal years from
2013-2016. For this analysis, we apportioned the
budget for ESP based of assumptions made for
health systems contribution to ESP at various
tiers.
 Development budget (A.D) data in the PIP
and OPs of the 4th HPNSP provided the
breakdown of funding from the GOB and
“Project Aid (PA)”, which is a sum of
reimbursable project aid (RPA) and direct
project aid (DPA). RPA covers loans while
DPA is grant money to GOB. HFG reviewed
and extracted data for 394 budget line items
that matched with the 232 ESP interventions
from the 12 identified OPs that include ESP
service provision.19
Each OP includes a total
financial target for the respective programme
(GOB and PA combined) for each of the fiscal
Figure 2: Data Sources
2. PIP and OPs of the 4th
HPNSP
(A.R.) Revenue Budget
(A1) GOB Contribution
(A.D.) Development Budget
(A1) GOB Contribution
(B) Cost of ESP Service Provision
3. MOHFW’s 2018 ESP
Costing Report
1. GOB’s Annual budget
books
Data Sources Contributing Section of Framework
(A.D.) Development Budget
(A2) Donor Contribution
4 Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP
years FY2017-2022, and also provides a
breakdown of GOB vs. PA for the grand total
for January 2017 to June 2022. HFG extracted
this data and estimated the yearly breakdown
for GOB and PA using the same ratio for the
grand total of each OP over 2017-2022.
Apportioned budget for ESP: HFG apportioned
the revenue and development budget amounts for
ESP based on programme statistics and expert
opinion.
 Revenue budget (A.R): salaries and benefits
were apportioned based on assumptions of HR
contribution (by each cadre) for ESP services;
the same proportions were used to allocate the
contribution of the remaining revenue budget
(non-HR items) to the ESP.
 Development budget (A.D) amounts only
for ESP services were extracted from twelve
OPs. The budget from the Community Based
Health Care (CBHC) OP, as this is for all types
of ESP services, was divided into six equal
amounts for each of the six service areas (five
core services and management of other
common conditions).
Cost of ESP: Data on the cost of ESP Service
Provision (B) was compiled from the 2018 ESP
costing report. The cost estimates include both the
total cost of public sector provision of ESP in
Bangladesh and the cost for each ESP programme
area. Using an ingredients-based methodology, the
study team costed 132 of the 232 ESP interventions
in six health programme areas (MNCAH, FP,
nutrition, communicable diseases, NCDs, and
management of other common conditions). The data
was obtained from a mixture of 2016 current
practices, standard protocols (if available), and
expert opinion when no other data was available.
Costs were based on the target population, the
population in need, and the service coverage of each
ESP intervention. Service coverage for 2016 was
obtained from document review and coverage for
the period 2017 to 2022 was obtained from the PIP
and OPs of the 4th HPNSP.
HFG converted the ESP cost estimates from
calendar year to fiscal year by combining half of
each consecutive calendar year. This is because the
allocated resource data (revenue and development
budgets) follow Bangladesh’s fiscal year (July through
June).
In order to undertake the analysis:
 Annual linear progress was assumed in achieving
coverage targets from 2017 to 2022; and
 The revenue budget for EPI was apportioned
based on a number of assumptions and expert
opinion.
The full report20 contains details of assumptions
made for each of the compiled data sets.
5. Findings
A. Allocated Resources for ESP
The total allocated resources (A) for ESP in FY2017-
18 is approximately BDT 7,200 Crore (USD 902
Million); this increases to approximately BDT 8,000
Crore (USD 997 Million) by FY2021-22. As per the
4th HPNSP, the development budget for ESP reduces
over the years, whereas the revenue budget
increases steadily during this period (see Table 1).
Table 1: Total Resources Allocated for ESP
YEAR (A.R) Revenue budget (A.D) Development
budget
(A) Total Allocated
Resources
(Crore
BDT)
(Million
USD)*
(Crore
BDT)
(Million
USD)*
(Crore
BDT)
(Million
USD)*
2017-18 3,260 405 4,005 497 7,265 902
2018-19 3,580 444 4,015 498 7,595 943
2019-20 3,938 489 3,825 475 7,763 964
2020-21 4,341 539 3,762 467 8,103 1,006
2021-22 4,753 590 3,277 407 8,030 997
Total 19,872 2,466 18,884 2,344 38,756 4,810
* Exchange rate used in 2017-2022: USD 1 = BDT 80.57
Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP 5
The total GOB contribution (A1) for ESP over the
period 2017-2022 is approximately BDT 26,000
Crore (USD 3,277 Million), which accounts for
more than two thirds of the total allocation for the
ESP programme (see Figure 3). The total donor
contribution (A2) for ESP for 2017-2022 is
approximately BDT 12,000 Crore (USD 1,533
Million), which accounts for approximately one third
of the total resources allocated (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: Apportioned Budget for ESP
Figure 4: Distribution of Development Budget for
ESP 2017-2022 by Core Service Areas
Figure 4 shows the percentage
distribution of the development
budget (total for 2017-2022) across
the six core service areas of ESP. It
was not possible to analyze the
distribution of the revenue budget, as
data was not available by service
areas.
The total allocated resources for the
ESP in 2017-18 (approximately BDT
7,200 Crore or USD 902 Million) is
about one-third of the total budget
for MOHFW for the same year (total
MOHFW budget for 2017-18 is BDT
20,652 Crore or USD 2,563 Million).
B. Cost of ESP Service Provision
Table 2 shows the total cost of ESP service
provision by fiscal year, 2017-2022. This was used
for this resource gap analysis, and does not include
the January-June 2017 ESP cost data. HFG
calculation is based on MOHFW’s 2018 ESP costing
report where the estimated cost of ESP service
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
MillionsUSD
Planned and Projected Revenue and Development Budget
(Apportioned for ESP) in USD
(A1) GoB contr. (A.R) Revenue Bud (A1) GoB contr. (A.D) Dev Bud
(A2) Donor contr. (A.D) Dev Bud (RPA) (A2) Donor contr. (A.D) Dev Bud (DPA)
15.8%
20.0%
44.2%
8.9%
6.2%
4.9%
Communicable
diseases
Family Planning
MNCAH Care
NCD
Nutrition
Other conditions
6 Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP
provision to achieve targets of the 4th HPNSP for
2017 is approximately BDT 8,000 Crore (USD 1,043
Million). It is expected to increase to more than
BDT 10,000 Crore (USD 1,281 Million) by 2022 to
achieve implementation plan and service coverage of
the 4th HPNSP (Table 3).
Table 2: Total Cost of ESP Service Provision by Fiscal Year, 2017-2022, including health systems
costs, not including inflation
Items 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Total
(B) Cost of ESP (Crore BDT) 8,492 8,767 9,178 9,623 10,082 46,141
(B) Cost of ESP (Million USD*) 1,054 1,088 1,139 1,194 1,251 5,727
*Exchange rate used in 2017-2022: USD 1 = BDT 80.57
Table 3: Total Cost of ESP* Service Provision by Calendar Year, 2016-2022, including health
systems costs, not including inflation
Items 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total
Total cost of ESP (Crore BDT) 7,620 8,405 8,579 8,955 9,401 9,844 10,319 63,123
Total cost of ESP (Million USD*) 973 1,043 1,065 1,111 1,167 1,222 1,281 7,862
*Exchange rate used in 2016: USD 1 = BDT 78.3; 2017-2022: USD 1 = BDT 80.57
Figure 5: ESP Cost Composition, 2017-2022
MNCAH and NCD
programmes account for the
two largest portions of costs
for ESP service provision from
2017-2022; MNCAH services
account for more than half of
the total cost, and NCD
accounts for about one-fourth
of the total cost. FP and
nutrition are more minor
components; each constitutes
less than 5% of the total cost of
the ESP (see Figure 5).
C. Resource Gap for ESP in Bangladesh
The estimated cost of ESP service provision is higher
than the resources currently allocated, which means
there is a gap in the resources needed to achieve
the 4th HPNSP targets by 2022. As shown in Table 4,
the resource gap is approximately BDT 1,200 Crore
(USD 152 Million) for 2017-18, and increases to
approximately BDT 2,000 Crore (USD 255 Million)
for 2021-22. This only represents the gap for
Bangladesh to achieve the planned ESP service
coverage targets indicated in the PIP and OPs by
2022.
The resource gap varies year-to-year and mostly
contributed to the allocation of development budget
by years. Both revenue budget and cost of ESP
increases in linear fashion over these years,
51.8%
4.7%
4.4%
14.5%
23.7%
1.0%
MNCAH Care
Family Planning
Nutrition
Communicable
diseases
NCD
Other conditions
Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP 7
Table 4: Resources, Cost, and Resource Gap for ESP Provision, FY2017-22
Year (A) Total Allocated
Resources for ESP
(B) Cost of ESP
Service Provision
(C) Resource Gap for
ESP
Gap as %
of Cost
(Crore
BDT)
(Million
USD*)
(Crore
BDT)
(Million
USD*)
(Crore
BDT)
(Million
USD*)
2017-18 7,265 902 8,492 1,054 (1,227) (152) 14%
2018-19 7,595 943 8,767 1,088 (1,172) (145) 13%
2019-20 7,763 964 9,178 1,139 (1,415) (176) 15%
2020-21 8,103 1,006 9,623 1,194 (1,519) (189) 16%
2021-22 8,030 997 10,082 1,251 (2,052) (255) 20%
Total 38,756 4,810 46,141 5,727 (7,385) (917) 16%
*Exchange rate used in 2017-2022: USD 1 = BDT 80.57
however, allocation of development budget is based
on planned activities of the 4th HPNSP per year
which decreased year-to-year (shown in Table 1). As
shown in Figure 6, the total resource gap over fiscal
years 2017-2022 for ESP in Bangladesh is projected
to be BDT 7,385 Crore (USD 917 Million), which is
about 19% of the total allocated resources for ESP
over this period.
Figure 6: Estimated Resource Gap for ESP for FY2017-2022
6. Way Forward
HFG estimated resource gap for public sector ESP
provision to be USD 917 Million (BDT 7,385 Crore)
for the period FY2017-2022. This is based on the
plans and coverage targets as presented in the PIP of
the 4th HPNSP. The following are suggested next
steps:
 Validate the findings of this study: Present and
discuss the results in a clear and practical way to
wider groups of GOB officials to validate and
triangulate the estimates, and if required,
estimates could be adjusted based on input.
8 Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP
The Health Finance and Governance (HFG) Project works to address some of the greatest challenges facing health systems
today. Drawing on the latest research, the project implements strategies to help countries increase their domestic
resources for health, manage those precious resources more effectively, and make wise purchasing decisions. The HFG
Project (2012-2018) is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and is led by Abt Associates in
collaboration with Avenir Health, Broad Branch Associates, Development Alternatives Inc., the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg
School of Public Health, Results for Development Institute, RTI International, and Training Resources Group, Inc. The
project is funded under cooperative Agreement AID-OAA-A-12-00080.
To learn more, visit www.hfgproject.org
Agreement Officer Representative Team: Scott Stewart (sstewart@usaid.gov) and Jodi Charles (jcharles@usaid.gov)
Recommended Citation:
Akhter, S., Shepard, K., Yesmin, A., Blanchet, N. J., and Islam, M. 2018. Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of the Essential
Service Package in Bangladesh, 2017-2022. Rockville, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates.
DISCLAIMER: This brief was made possible by the generous support of the American people through USAID. The
contents are the responsibility of Abt Associates and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States
Government.
June 2018
Abt Associates
6130 Executive Blvd.
Rockville, MD 20852
abtassociates.com
 Mobilize resources: Use these findings to
advocate for mobilizing additional resources,
both domestically and from external sources, if
the 4th HPNSP targets are to be achieved. The
upcoming mid-term review in 2019 provides an
opportunity to advocate for increased
allocations.
 Maximize efficiency: Improve financial
management and budget execution, as well as
identify ways to spend current resources more
efficiently (where possible) to improve fiscal
space.
The resource gap estimated here could be an
underestimate as the cost of ESP calculation used for
this analysis with health system cost did not include
inflation. Moreover, this estimated resource gap is
only for public sector provision of ESP. Future
research could consider the ESP services delivered
from both private and NGO sectors.
Among the ESP service areas and their sub-
components, some programmes are expected to
have resource gaps while others will have a surplus
(e.g., family planning (FP) and management of other
common conditions). The overall ESP is expected to
have a net resource gap.
In the context of 4th HPNSP and overall budget for
health sector, the resource gap for ESP (USD 917
Million) is relatively moderate, and additional
advocacy initiatives would reduce this resource gap
for ESP and enable Bangladesh to achieve UHC.
7. References
1 World Health Organization. 2010. The World Health Report: Health Systems Financing – the Path to Universal Coverage. World Health Organization.
2 World Health Organization. What is Universal Coverage? http://www.who.int/health_financing/universal_coverage_definition/en/ Accessed April 4, 2017.
3 https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg3 Accessed April 5, 2017.
4 Wright, J. 2015. Essential Package of Health Services Country Snapshot Series. Bethesda, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates Inc.
https://www.hfgproject.org/essential-package-of-health-services-country-snapshot-bangladesh/
5 Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2016. Bangladesh Essential Health Service Package (ESP). Dhaka, Bangladesh: Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
6 Planning Wing, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2017. 4th Health, Population and Nutrition Sector Programme (4th HPNSP) (January 2017 - June 2022), Programme
Implementation Plan (PIP): Better Health for a Prosperous Society, Volume-I. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh.
7 Planning Wing, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2016. Health, Nutrition and Population Strategic Investment Plan (HNPSIP) July 2016–June 2021, Better Health for a
Prosperous Society. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
8 Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2018. Costs of the Bangladesh Essential Health Service Package: 2016-2022. Dhaka: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of the
People's Republic of Bangladesh.
9 Shepard, K., Akhter, S., Yesmin, A., Blanchet, N. J., and Islam, M. June 2018. Resource Gap for Tuberculosis Programme in Bangladesh, 2017-2022. Rockville, MD: Health Finance
and Governance Project, Abt Associates.
10 Shepard, K., Akhter, S., Yesmin, A., Blanchet N. J., and Islam, M. June 2018. Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of the Expanded Programme on Immunization in Bangladesh,
2017-2022. Rockville, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates.
11 Akhter, S., Shepard, K., Yesmin, A., Blanchet, N. J., and Islam, M. 2018. Resource Gap Analysis for Public Sector Provision of the Essential Service Package, Tuberculosis and
Expanded Programme on Immunization in Bangladesh, 2017-2022. Rockville, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates.
12 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Health. Tracking Funding for Nutrition in Ethiopia Across Sectors. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
13 Chaitkin, M., O’Connell, M., and Githinji, J. 2017. Sustaining Effective Coverage for HIV, Tuberculosis, and Malaria in the Context of Transition in Kenya. Washington, DC: Results for
Development.
14 Fleisher, L., Mehtsun, S., and Arias, D. 2017. Sustaining Effective Coverage for HIV, Tuberculosis, and Malaria in the Context of Transition in Tanzania. Washington, DC: Results for
Development.
15 Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2018. Costs of the Bangladesh Essential Health Service Package: 2016-2022. Dhaka: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of the
People's Republic of Bangladesh.
16 Except TB, HIV/AIDS, NTDs and malaria interventions
17 Finance Division, Ministry of Finance. Annual Budget 2017-18, Health Services Division. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh.
18 Finance Division, Ministry of Finance. Annual Budget 2017-18, Health Education and Family Planning Division. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Government of the People's Republic of
Bangladesh.
19 MNCAH, Maternal, Child, Reproductive, and Adolescent Health (MCRAH), FP Field Services Delivery (FP-FSD), Clinical Contraception Services Delivery Programme (CCSDP),
National Nutrition Services (NNS), Communicable Disease Control (CDC), TB-Leprosy and AIDS/STD Programme (TB-L & ASP), NCD Control (NCDC), National Eye Care (NEC),
CBHC, Information, Education & Communication (IEC), and Lifestyle, and Health Education & Promotion (L&HEP).
20 Akhter, S., Shepard, K., Yesmin, A., Blanchet, N. J., and Islam, M. 2018. Resource Gap Analysis for Public Sector Provision of the Essential Service Package, Tuberculosis and
Expanded Programme on Immunization in Bangladesh, 2017-2022. Rockville, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates.

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Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of the Essential Service Package in Bangladesh, 2017-2022

  • 1. Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of the Essential Service Package in Bangladesh, 2017-2022 1. Introduction The Government of Bangladesh (GOB) is working towards achieving universal health coverage (UHC) by 2030 as part of attaining Target 3.8 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).1, 2, 3 The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW) developed the first Essential Service Package (ESP) for Bangladesh in 1998,4 and has updated it over the years to adjust for changing disease burden trends and population needs. In 2016, MOHFW updated the ESP significantly in preparation for the 4th Health, Population, and Nutrition Sector Programme 2017- 2022 (4th HPNSP),5, 6 which includes UHC as a key focus. The MOHFW aimed to design a well-defined, cost-effective, and implementable ESP to ensure equitable access to quality health, nutrition, and population services.7 The updated 2016 ESP is a critical step towards the GOB’s commitment to universal access to the most essential health services. The ESP consists of five core services, as well as management of common conditions, integrated behavior change communication (BCC), and three support services (see Box 1). Within the ESP, there are 232 service interventions with relevant delivery channels for each (from a list of ten channels, covering the community through to district hospitals). The 4th HPNSP includes plans and targets for ESP implementation, as part of its operational plans (OPs) in the Programme Implementation Plan (PIP). Since 2016, USAID’s Health Finance and Governance (HFG) project, in partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), have been supporting the MOHFW’s Planning Wing and Health Economics Unit (HEU) to estimate the cost of providing the ESP through the public sector as per the plans and targets of the 4th HPNSP. Using findings from the costing study (henceforth MOHFW’s 2018 ESP costing report),8 HFG conducted a further analysis to determine the resource gap for public sector provision of the ESP in Bangladesh using the PIP and OPs of the 4th HPNSP as the basis. This analysis continues HFG’s support to the MOHFW and GOB towards evidence-based planning and strengthening Bangladesh’s health system for UHC. HFG also conducted a similar resource gap analysis for tuberculosis (TB) Box 1. Bangladesh ESP updated in 2016  Five core services  Maternal, Neonatal, Child and Adolescent Health (MNCAH)  Family Planning (FP)  Nutrition  Communicable Diseases  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)  Management of other common conditions  Support services:  Laboratory  Radiology  Pharmacy  Integrated BCC  Provided through ten delivery channels
  • 2. 2 Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP and expanded programme on immunization (EPI) in Bangladesh.9, 10 Please see the full report for complete details on methods, limitations, and results for resource gap analysis for ESP, TB, and EPI in Bangladesh.11 This brief provides an overview of the resource gap analysis for the ESP, including data estimates for GOB and donors, and presents the calculated resource gap for public sector provision of the ESP for the period 2017-2022. 2. Objectives The analysis had the following objectives  To generate resource gap estimates by consolidating data on resources available and estimated costs for the ESP service provision per the 4th HPNSP.  To support the GOB in understanding additional resource requirements and facilitate improved budget planning by showing the funding flows and allocation across funding sources and priority areas for the ESP provision.  To assist the GOB to strategically and holistically improve domestic resource mobilization for the ESP, and to plan for eventual transition from donor financing. HFG designed this analysis to answer the following questions: a) What resources are available over 2017- 2022 to fund the ESP? b) What, if any, is the resource gap for the ESP service provision over 2017-2022? 3. Methodology HFG followed a rigorous methodology, using an approach from similar resource modeling exercises for HIV, TB, malaria, and nutrition programmes in countries undergoing donor transitions.12, 13, 14 This analysis applied a simple analytic framework to estimate the future resource gap (if any) for the ESP in Bangladesh. The framework includes funding flows for the health sector in Bangladesh and a core formula for resource gap analysis, as shown in Figure 1. Components of the framework are explained below. (A) The allocated resources for ESP. This includes two components:  (A.R) Revenue budget is the fixed budget allocation by GOB. It is allocated primarily for human resources (HR) as salaries, allowances, and other benefits (which constitute about 90% of the revenue budget). In addition, a small portion is allocated for repairs, maintenance, supplies, and services for health facilities.  (A1) GOB contribution to MOHFW for the ESP includes funding allocated by GOB through the revenue budget. Figure 1: Analytic Framework for Resource Gap Analysis (A2) Donor Contribution (A1) GoB Contribution (C) RESOURCE GAP for ESP (B) Cost of ESP Service Provision (A) Allocated Resources for ESP (A.R) Revenue Budget (A.D) Development Budget
  • 3. Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP 3  (A.D) Development budget is the more flexible budget compared to the revenue budget. This is channeled through the sector programme, the 4th HPNSP; it covers the programmatic aspects of the health system, such as training, research and development, drugs and supplies, supportive equipment, and monitoring and evaluation.  (A1) GOB contribution to MOHFW for the ESP, also includes funding allocated by GOB through development budget.  (A2) Donor contribution includes external resources from development partners allocated as part of the development budget. (B) Cost of ESP Service Provision was obtained from the MOHFW’s 2018 ESP costing report which estimated the cost of ESP services in the public sector in Bangladesh.15 This study used the OneHealth Tool (OHT) to estimate the costs of each ESP core services, as well as the cost of ESP interventions16 and the required health system costs to implement these services. (C) Resource gap for ESP is calculated as the difference between the allocated resources from the GOB and from donors for the ESP (A), and the estimated cost of delivering ESP services (B). This gap represents the amount of resources the GOB will need to mobilize for provision of the ESP, as per the PIP of the 4th HPNSP. 4. Data Sources and Analysis For this analysis, data was compiled from multiple sources, as shown in Figure 2. Information on allocated resources (A) was extracted from revenue and development budgets:  Revenue budget (A.R) data was compiled from Bangladesh’s annual budget books 2017-18 for the health services division (HSD) and health education and family planning division (HE&FPD).17, 18 The revised budget for FY2016- 17 and the intended budget for FY2017-18 were extracted from these documents. We extracted budget amounts for ten different types of health facilities, and for each type of health facility, the budget was provided in six different categories: officer salaries, employee salaries, allowances, supplies and services, repairs and maintenance, and assets collection and procurement. Revenue budget totals for FY2018-2019 to FY 2021-2022 were projected using linear best fit for actual expenditure data, including fiscal years from 2013-2016. For this analysis, we apportioned the budget for ESP based of assumptions made for health systems contribution to ESP at various tiers.  Development budget (A.D) data in the PIP and OPs of the 4th HPNSP provided the breakdown of funding from the GOB and “Project Aid (PA)”, which is a sum of reimbursable project aid (RPA) and direct project aid (DPA). RPA covers loans while DPA is grant money to GOB. HFG reviewed and extracted data for 394 budget line items that matched with the 232 ESP interventions from the 12 identified OPs that include ESP service provision.19 Each OP includes a total financial target for the respective programme (GOB and PA combined) for each of the fiscal Figure 2: Data Sources 2. PIP and OPs of the 4th HPNSP (A.R.) Revenue Budget (A1) GOB Contribution (A.D.) Development Budget (A1) GOB Contribution (B) Cost of ESP Service Provision 3. MOHFW’s 2018 ESP Costing Report 1. GOB’s Annual budget books Data Sources Contributing Section of Framework (A.D.) Development Budget (A2) Donor Contribution
  • 4. 4 Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP years FY2017-2022, and also provides a breakdown of GOB vs. PA for the grand total for January 2017 to June 2022. HFG extracted this data and estimated the yearly breakdown for GOB and PA using the same ratio for the grand total of each OP over 2017-2022. Apportioned budget for ESP: HFG apportioned the revenue and development budget amounts for ESP based on programme statistics and expert opinion.  Revenue budget (A.R): salaries and benefits were apportioned based on assumptions of HR contribution (by each cadre) for ESP services; the same proportions were used to allocate the contribution of the remaining revenue budget (non-HR items) to the ESP.  Development budget (A.D) amounts only for ESP services were extracted from twelve OPs. The budget from the Community Based Health Care (CBHC) OP, as this is for all types of ESP services, was divided into six equal amounts for each of the six service areas (five core services and management of other common conditions). Cost of ESP: Data on the cost of ESP Service Provision (B) was compiled from the 2018 ESP costing report. The cost estimates include both the total cost of public sector provision of ESP in Bangladesh and the cost for each ESP programme area. Using an ingredients-based methodology, the study team costed 132 of the 232 ESP interventions in six health programme areas (MNCAH, FP, nutrition, communicable diseases, NCDs, and management of other common conditions). The data was obtained from a mixture of 2016 current practices, standard protocols (if available), and expert opinion when no other data was available. Costs were based on the target population, the population in need, and the service coverage of each ESP intervention. Service coverage for 2016 was obtained from document review and coverage for the period 2017 to 2022 was obtained from the PIP and OPs of the 4th HPNSP. HFG converted the ESP cost estimates from calendar year to fiscal year by combining half of each consecutive calendar year. This is because the allocated resource data (revenue and development budgets) follow Bangladesh’s fiscal year (July through June). In order to undertake the analysis:  Annual linear progress was assumed in achieving coverage targets from 2017 to 2022; and  The revenue budget for EPI was apportioned based on a number of assumptions and expert opinion. The full report20 contains details of assumptions made for each of the compiled data sets. 5. Findings A. Allocated Resources for ESP The total allocated resources (A) for ESP in FY2017- 18 is approximately BDT 7,200 Crore (USD 902 Million); this increases to approximately BDT 8,000 Crore (USD 997 Million) by FY2021-22. As per the 4th HPNSP, the development budget for ESP reduces over the years, whereas the revenue budget increases steadily during this period (see Table 1). Table 1: Total Resources Allocated for ESP YEAR (A.R) Revenue budget (A.D) Development budget (A) Total Allocated Resources (Crore BDT) (Million USD)* (Crore BDT) (Million USD)* (Crore BDT) (Million USD)* 2017-18 3,260 405 4,005 497 7,265 902 2018-19 3,580 444 4,015 498 7,595 943 2019-20 3,938 489 3,825 475 7,763 964 2020-21 4,341 539 3,762 467 8,103 1,006 2021-22 4,753 590 3,277 407 8,030 997 Total 19,872 2,466 18,884 2,344 38,756 4,810 * Exchange rate used in 2017-2022: USD 1 = BDT 80.57
  • 5. Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP 5 The total GOB contribution (A1) for ESP over the period 2017-2022 is approximately BDT 26,000 Crore (USD 3,277 Million), which accounts for more than two thirds of the total allocation for the ESP programme (see Figure 3). The total donor contribution (A2) for ESP for 2017-2022 is approximately BDT 12,000 Crore (USD 1,533 Million), which accounts for approximately one third of the total resources allocated (see Figure 3). Figure 3: Apportioned Budget for ESP Figure 4: Distribution of Development Budget for ESP 2017-2022 by Core Service Areas Figure 4 shows the percentage distribution of the development budget (total for 2017-2022) across the six core service areas of ESP. It was not possible to analyze the distribution of the revenue budget, as data was not available by service areas. The total allocated resources for the ESP in 2017-18 (approximately BDT 7,200 Crore or USD 902 Million) is about one-third of the total budget for MOHFW for the same year (total MOHFW budget for 2017-18 is BDT 20,652 Crore or USD 2,563 Million). B. Cost of ESP Service Provision Table 2 shows the total cost of ESP service provision by fiscal year, 2017-2022. This was used for this resource gap analysis, and does not include the January-June 2017 ESP cost data. HFG calculation is based on MOHFW’s 2018 ESP costing report where the estimated cost of ESP service 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 MillionsUSD Planned and Projected Revenue and Development Budget (Apportioned for ESP) in USD (A1) GoB contr. (A.R) Revenue Bud (A1) GoB contr. (A.D) Dev Bud (A2) Donor contr. (A.D) Dev Bud (RPA) (A2) Donor contr. (A.D) Dev Bud (DPA) 15.8% 20.0% 44.2% 8.9% 6.2% 4.9% Communicable diseases Family Planning MNCAH Care NCD Nutrition Other conditions
  • 6. 6 Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP provision to achieve targets of the 4th HPNSP for 2017 is approximately BDT 8,000 Crore (USD 1,043 Million). It is expected to increase to more than BDT 10,000 Crore (USD 1,281 Million) by 2022 to achieve implementation plan and service coverage of the 4th HPNSP (Table 3). Table 2: Total Cost of ESP Service Provision by Fiscal Year, 2017-2022, including health systems costs, not including inflation Items 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Total (B) Cost of ESP (Crore BDT) 8,492 8,767 9,178 9,623 10,082 46,141 (B) Cost of ESP (Million USD*) 1,054 1,088 1,139 1,194 1,251 5,727 *Exchange rate used in 2017-2022: USD 1 = BDT 80.57 Table 3: Total Cost of ESP* Service Provision by Calendar Year, 2016-2022, including health systems costs, not including inflation Items 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Total cost of ESP (Crore BDT) 7,620 8,405 8,579 8,955 9,401 9,844 10,319 63,123 Total cost of ESP (Million USD*) 973 1,043 1,065 1,111 1,167 1,222 1,281 7,862 *Exchange rate used in 2016: USD 1 = BDT 78.3; 2017-2022: USD 1 = BDT 80.57 Figure 5: ESP Cost Composition, 2017-2022 MNCAH and NCD programmes account for the two largest portions of costs for ESP service provision from 2017-2022; MNCAH services account for more than half of the total cost, and NCD accounts for about one-fourth of the total cost. FP and nutrition are more minor components; each constitutes less than 5% of the total cost of the ESP (see Figure 5). C. Resource Gap for ESP in Bangladesh The estimated cost of ESP service provision is higher than the resources currently allocated, which means there is a gap in the resources needed to achieve the 4th HPNSP targets by 2022. As shown in Table 4, the resource gap is approximately BDT 1,200 Crore (USD 152 Million) for 2017-18, and increases to approximately BDT 2,000 Crore (USD 255 Million) for 2021-22. This only represents the gap for Bangladesh to achieve the planned ESP service coverage targets indicated in the PIP and OPs by 2022. The resource gap varies year-to-year and mostly contributed to the allocation of development budget by years. Both revenue budget and cost of ESP increases in linear fashion over these years, 51.8% 4.7% 4.4% 14.5% 23.7% 1.0% MNCAH Care Family Planning Nutrition Communicable diseases NCD Other conditions
  • 7. Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP 7 Table 4: Resources, Cost, and Resource Gap for ESP Provision, FY2017-22 Year (A) Total Allocated Resources for ESP (B) Cost of ESP Service Provision (C) Resource Gap for ESP Gap as % of Cost (Crore BDT) (Million USD*) (Crore BDT) (Million USD*) (Crore BDT) (Million USD*) 2017-18 7,265 902 8,492 1,054 (1,227) (152) 14% 2018-19 7,595 943 8,767 1,088 (1,172) (145) 13% 2019-20 7,763 964 9,178 1,139 (1,415) (176) 15% 2020-21 8,103 1,006 9,623 1,194 (1,519) (189) 16% 2021-22 8,030 997 10,082 1,251 (2,052) (255) 20% Total 38,756 4,810 46,141 5,727 (7,385) (917) 16% *Exchange rate used in 2017-2022: USD 1 = BDT 80.57 however, allocation of development budget is based on planned activities of the 4th HPNSP per year which decreased year-to-year (shown in Table 1). As shown in Figure 6, the total resource gap over fiscal years 2017-2022 for ESP in Bangladesh is projected to be BDT 7,385 Crore (USD 917 Million), which is about 19% of the total allocated resources for ESP over this period. Figure 6: Estimated Resource Gap for ESP for FY2017-2022 6. Way Forward HFG estimated resource gap for public sector ESP provision to be USD 917 Million (BDT 7,385 Crore) for the period FY2017-2022. This is based on the plans and coverage targets as presented in the PIP of the 4th HPNSP. The following are suggested next steps:  Validate the findings of this study: Present and discuss the results in a clear and practical way to wider groups of GOB officials to validate and triangulate the estimates, and if required, estimates could be adjusted based on input.
  • 8. 8 Bangladesh Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of ESP The Health Finance and Governance (HFG) Project works to address some of the greatest challenges facing health systems today. Drawing on the latest research, the project implements strategies to help countries increase their domestic resources for health, manage those precious resources more effectively, and make wise purchasing decisions. The HFG Project (2012-2018) is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and is led by Abt Associates in collaboration with Avenir Health, Broad Branch Associates, Development Alternatives Inc., the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Results for Development Institute, RTI International, and Training Resources Group, Inc. The project is funded under cooperative Agreement AID-OAA-A-12-00080. To learn more, visit www.hfgproject.org Agreement Officer Representative Team: Scott Stewart (sstewart@usaid.gov) and Jodi Charles (jcharles@usaid.gov) Recommended Citation: Akhter, S., Shepard, K., Yesmin, A., Blanchet, N. J., and Islam, M. 2018. Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of the Essential Service Package in Bangladesh, 2017-2022. Rockville, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates. DISCLAIMER: This brief was made possible by the generous support of the American people through USAID. The contents are the responsibility of Abt Associates and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. June 2018 Abt Associates 6130 Executive Blvd. Rockville, MD 20852 abtassociates.com  Mobilize resources: Use these findings to advocate for mobilizing additional resources, both domestically and from external sources, if the 4th HPNSP targets are to be achieved. The upcoming mid-term review in 2019 provides an opportunity to advocate for increased allocations.  Maximize efficiency: Improve financial management and budget execution, as well as identify ways to spend current resources more efficiently (where possible) to improve fiscal space. The resource gap estimated here could be an underestimate as the cost of ESP calculation used for this analysis with health system cost did not include inflation. Moreover, this estimated resource gap is only for public sector provision of ESP. Future research could consider the ESP services delivered from both private and NGO sectors. Among the ESP service areas and their sub- components, some programmes are expected to have resource gaps while others will have a surplus (e.g., family planning (FP) and management of other common conditions). The overall ESP is expected to have a net resource gap. In the context of 4th HPNSP and overall budget for health sector, the resource gap for ESP (USD 917 Million) is relatively moderate, and additional advocacy initiatives would reduce this resource gap for ESP and enable Bangladesh to achieve UHC. 7. References 1 World Health Organization. 2010. The World Health Report: Health Systems Financing – the Path to Universal Coverage. World Health Organization. 2 World Health Organization. What is Universal Coverage? http://www.who.int/health_financing/universal_coverage_definition/en/ Accessed April 4, 2017. 3 https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg3 Accessed April 5, 2017. 4 Wright, J. 2015. Essential Package of Health Services Country Snapshot Series. Bethesda, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates Inc. https://www.hfgproject.org/essential-package-of-health-services-country-snapshot-bangladesh/ 5 Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2016. Bangladesh Essential Health Service Package (ESP). Dhaka, Bangladesh: Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. 6 Planning Wing, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2017. 4th Health, Population and Nutrition Sector Programme (4th HPNSP) (January 2017 - June 2022), Programme Implementation Plan (PIP): Better Health for a Prosperous Society, Volume-I. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh. 7 Planning Wing, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2016. Health, Nutrition and Population Strategic Investment Plan (HNPSIP) July 2016–June 2021, Better Health for a Prosperous Society. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. 8 Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2018. Costs of the Bangladesh Essential Health Service Package: 2016-2022. Dhaka: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh. 9 Shepard, K., Akhter, S., Yesmin, A., Blanchet, N. J., and Islam, M. June 2018. Resource Gap for Tuberculosis Programme in Bangladesh, 2017-2022. Rockville, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates. 10 Shepard, K., Akhter, S., Yesmin, A., Blanchet N. J., and Islam, M. June 2018. Resource Gap for Public Sector Provision of the Expanded Programme on Immunization in Bangladesh, 2017-2022. Rockville, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates. 11 Akhter, S., Shepard, K., Yesmin, A., Blanchet, N. J., and Islam, M. 2018. Resource Gap Analysis for Public Sector Provision of the Essential Service Package, Tuberculosis and Expanded Programme on Immunization in Bangladesh, 2017-2022. Rockville, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates. 12 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Health. Tracking Funding for Nutrition in Ethiopia Across Sectors. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 13 Chaitkin, M., O’Connell, M., and Githinji, J. 2017. Sustaining Effective Coverage for HIV, Tuberculosis, and Malaria in the Context of Transition in Kenya. Washington, DC: Results for Development. 14 Fleisher, L., Mehtsun, S., and Arias, D. 2017. Sustaining Effective Coverage for HIV, Tuberculosis, and Malaria in the Context of Transition in Tanzania. Washington, DC: Results for Development. 15 Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2018. Costs of the Bangladesh Essential Health Service Package: 2016-2022. Dhaka: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh. 16 Except TB, HIV/AIDS, NTDs and malaria interventions 17 Finance Division, Ministry of Finance. Annual Budget 2017-18, Health Services Division. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh. 18 Finance Division, Ministry of Finance. Annual Budget 2017-18, Health Education and Family Planning Division. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh. 19 MNCAH, Maternal, Child, Reproductive, and Adolescent Health (MCRAH), FP Field Services Delivery (FP-FSD), Clinical Contraception Services Delivery Programme (CCSDP), National Nutrition Services (NNS), Communicable Disease Control (CDC), TB-Leprosy and AIDS/STD Programme (TB-L & ASP), NCD Control (NCDC), National Eye Care (NEC), CBHC, Information, Education & Communication (IEC), and Lifestyle, and Health Education & Promotion (L&HEP). 20 Akhter, S., Shepard, K., Yesmin, A., Blanchet, N. J., and Islam, M. 2018. Resource Gap Analysis for Public Sector Provision of the Essential Service Package, Tuberculosis and Expanded Programme on Immunization in Bangladesh, 2017-2022. Rockville, MD: Health Finance and Governance Project, Abt Associates.