The document discusses regional models and data for analyzing disaster mitigation and resilience, particularly in the context of U.S. disasters that often have localized impacts. It examines the interdependence of economic sectors and presents various models, including input-output and computable general equilibrium, for evaluating resilience at different levels. Resilience is framed as a cost-effective strategy for reducing disaster losses and emphasizes the role of citizens in enhancing resilience.

1. Regional Models & Data to Analyze Disaster Mitigation & Resilience Adam Rose Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events University of Southern California

2. Regional Scope of U.S. Disasters Disasters rarely extend to national boundary - sheer size of the U.S. - limits of natural and man-made forces Even localized impacts ripple to trading area - interdependence of economic sectors - connecting role of infrastructure

3. Re-Examine Interdependence Old View—Brittle - multiplier or domino perspective - network vulnerability New View—Flexible, or Resilient - static resilience (adjusts & adapts) - dynamic resilience (bounces back)

4. Focus of Presentation Models for analyzing interdependence: - input-output - computable general equilibrium Incorporation of Resilience Data bases for county level analyses: - IMPLAN - HAZUS

5. Major Economic Models Input-Output - system of accounts; most widely used tool - linear model of all purchases & sales between sectors of an economy, based on the technological relationships of production Computable General Equilibrium - extends I-O to markets & prices; state-of-the-art - non-linear model of individual behavioral response to price signals, subject to limitations of labor, capital & natural resources

6. Input-Output Table

8. Expanded Circular Flow

9. Economic Resilience General Definition : static : ability of a system to maintain function when shocked dynamic : speed of a system to recover from shock Types of Resilience : inherent : normal ability during crises to maintain function (input/import substitution, market reallocation) adaptive : ingenuity during crises (increased substitution possibilities, market strengthening)

10. Examples of Resilience Individual Business (and Household) - conservation of critical inputs - use of inventories - business relocation Market - efficient allocation of resources via price signals - non-interruptible service premia Regional Economy - importing scarce commodities - information clearinghouses

12. Infrastructure-Economy Interaction through GIS

13. TABLE 2. RESILIENCE TO UTILITY SERVICE DISRUPTIONS

14. Resilience Factor Water Electricity Conservation 1.0 6.1 Adaptive Substitution 1.6 3.9 Inventories/Storage 3.0 — Alternative Sources — 28.1 Importance 58.7 28.7 Production Rescheduling 75.5 79.4 Total 91.0 89.6 Individual Resilience Options

15. IMPLAN Im pact Analysis for Plan ning Developed by several federal gov’t agencies Most popular source of regional I-O tables Consists of 3 components - county data on economic activity - algorithms for generating county I-O tables - computations to perform impact analyses

16. HAZUS Haz ards U nited S tates— M ulti- H azard Loss estimation tool developed by FEMA Immense data base: - built environment - physical damage functions - translation to direct economic loss - I-O analysis to estimate indirect econ loss

17. Conclusions We can model & measure resilience at the business, hh, market & regional levels Resilience is a low cost way to reduce disaster losses (often lower than mitigation) Resilience is an important 2 nd line of defense Resilience provides a role for all citizens