Presented by Cynthia Maharani, from the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), at the Knowledge Sharing Event "Sharing Insights Across REDD+ Countries" in Georgetown, Guyana, on June 6, 2017.

1. REDD+ progress in 13 countries
Pham Thu Thuy, Korhonen-Kurki, K., Brockhaus, M., Sehring, J.
DiGreggio, M. + all the country experts

2. THINKING beyond the canopy
CIFOR’s Global Comparative
Study on REDD+ (2009-2020)
 M1 (REDD+ policies) focuses on effective, efficient and
equitable (3E) REDD+ policies, and measures them at
the national level.
 M2 (REDD+ subnational initiatives) focuses on
assessing the performance of REDD+ subnational
initiatives.
 M3 (Measuring carbon emissions) focuses on
measuring carbon emissions and determining forest
and carbon reference levels, and works on the
Monitoring, Measurement, Reporting and Verification
(MMRV) of forests and carbon.
 M4 (Multilevel governance) focuses on understanding
the synergies and trade-offs in joint mitigation and
adaptation, and addresses the challenges of multilevel
and multi-sector governance and carbon management.
 M5 (Knowledge sharing) is dedicated to partner
engagement and dissemination.

3. THINKING beyond the canopy
Africa South America Asia–Pacific
Burkina Faso
Cameroon
Democratic Republic of the
Congo (DRC)
Ethiopia
Mozambique
Tanzania
Brazil
Guyana
Peru
Indonesia
Nepal
Papua New Guinea (PNG)
Vietnam
Myanmar
Aims to understand:
1. the different pathways followed by single countries towards
transformational change in the REDD+ arena
2. how and which domestic conditions enable transformational
change
3. which factors catalyst change processes

4. REDD+ progress
 Progress = Establishment of comprehensive policies
targeting transformational changes in REDD+ policy
domain
 Transformational change = ‘a shift in discourse, attitudes,
power relations, and deliberate policy and protest action
that leads policy formulation and implementation away
from business as usual policy approaches that directly or
indirectly support deforestation and forest degradation’
(Brockhaus and Angelsen, 2012; Di Gregorio et al, 2012
in ‘Analysing REDD+’)

5. 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 ?
POLICY
REVIEW
STAKEHOLDERS
INTERVIEWS
CONSULTATION
WORKSHOPS
COUNTRY
EXPERTS
Verification
workshop in
Ethiopia
Verification
workshop in
Burkina Faso
Verification
workshop in
Barcelona
30 global REDD+ experts identify new conditions
2015
> 60 country experts identifying + verifying enabling conditions for REDD+ establishment

6. Conditions for establishing REDD+
Outcome: There are a REDD+ “policies and measures” established and
operationalized
Institutional setting (remote
conditions)
Policy arena (proximate conditions)
Pressure from shortage of forest
resources (PRES)
National ownership and political
leadership
Sound and consistent legal forestry
framework and policies and some
evidence of implementation efforts
(EFF)
‘Promise of reward’ based on
availability of results-based funding
for REDD+ (PERFO)
Already initiated policy change “Powerful” transformational
coalitions (COAL)
Source: Korhonen-Kurki, K., Brockhaus, M., Sehring, J., DiGreggio, M. + all the country
experts. What drives for change? A qualitative comparative analysis on enabling
conditions for establishing REDD+. Forthcoming.

7. THINKING beyond the canopy
Findings
Country REDD+
2012 2014
2016
Brazil 1 1 1
Guyana - 1 1
Peru 0 0 1
Burkina Faso
0
0
0
Cameroon 0 0 0
DRC 0 1 1
Ethiopia - 0 1
Mozambique
0 0
1
Tanzania 0 1 0
Indonesia 1 1 1
Nepal 0 0 0
PNG 0 0 0
Vietnam 1 1 0
 Progress, but incomplete: Brazil (inclusive
decision making) , Guyana (performance based
funding), Indonesia (effective legal framework
that address drivers of Deforestation and
degradation), DRC (lack of ownership +
effective legal framework that address drivers of
Deforestation and degradation)
 New progress : Peru, Ethiopia, Mozambique
with Performance based funding and
transformational coalitions
 Unstable conditions: REDD+ countries
moving back and forth: Vietnam and
Tanzania, lacking both performance based
funding and coalitions + weakened interest and
political interest
 No or little progress: Cameroon, Nepal, Papa
New Guinea (PNG) Burkina Faso
Source: Korhonen-Kurki, K., Brockhaus, M., Sehring, J.,
DiGreggio, M. + all the country experts. What drives for
change? A qualitative comparative analysis on enabling
conditions for establishing REDD+. Forthcoming.

8. Overall progress with REDD+: moving slowly
from readiness to results based finance
 Uncertainty about REDD+ finance and
carbon market affecting country’s
commitment and overall REDD+ progress
- need for more certainty about finance
to provide credibility for shifts in incentives,
Paris might be a signal
 It is often assumed that early-mover
countries have already progressed with
REDD+ to a stage where ‘payments for
performance’ can be made.
 However, some early-mover countries –
such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Mozambique
and Papua New Guinea – are still
struggling with policy design, institutional
setting and implementation

9. From rhetoric to policy change for REDD+?
 Agents of Change and new coalitions emerging, new incentives, and
new discourses highlighting equity implications of REDD+ as well as
effectiveness and efficiency (Angelsen et al. 2012) and forests are
back into agenda in all country after Paris Agreement
 Countries integrate REDD+ more explicitly in their INDCs
BUT
 All countries struggle with overcoming the existing business-as-usual
(BAU) path-dependencies, despite considerable investments (e.g. in
the case of Brazil, in earlier command and control measures)
 BAU actor coalitions are powerful, main drivers of deforestation not
yet tackled
 power struggles everywhere, horizontal, vertical , within between
ministries, sectors, within and between old and new institutional
settings and involved organizations
 Avoid discourse and discussion on drivers of D&D

10. Politics matter
 Unstable political regimes in Myanmar, DRC, Nepal, Peru
impede the REDD+ progress.
 In Indonesia, Guyana, Burkina Faso, Nepal, Brazil: political
carousel is rolling too fast within election cycles to maintain
momentum for change, or the attention span of politicians is
too short to carry out major reform.
 Safeguards, tenure and benefit sharing mechanisms remain
as major challenges for all countries
 Politics of numbers matter: Who counts count, and what is
counted counts…)

11. Key Findings:
• REDD+ policies in all countries studied are at high
risk of ineffectiveness, inequity and inefficiency.
• risks related to REDD+ are multifaceted and occur
at multiple scales.
• Some of the risks are related to how REDD+
PAMs are designed. Other risks are related to a
country’s unique political and economic context,
which has to be carefully considered when
thinking about specific national REDD+ designs

12. Acknowledgements
This work is part of the policy component of CIFOR’s global comparative study on REDD (GCS). The methods and guidelines used in
this research component were designed by Maria Brockhaus, Monica Di Gregorio and Sheila Wertz-Kanounnikoff. Parts of the
methodology are adapted from the research protocol for media and network analysis designed by COMPON (‘Comparing Climate
Change Policy Networks’).
Case leaders: Thuy Thu Pham (Nepal), Thuy Thu Pham & Moira Moeliono (Vietnam), Thuy Thu Pham and Guillaume Lestrelin
(Laos), Daju Resosudarmo & Moira Moeliono (Indonesia), Andrea Babon (PNG), Peter Cronkleton, Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki, Pablo
Pacheco (Bolivia), Mary Menton (Peru), Sven Wunder & Peter May (Brazil), Samuel Assembe & Jolien Schure (Cameroon), Samuel
Assembe (DRC), Salla Rantala (Tanzania), Sheila Wertz-Kanounnikoff (Mozambique), Suwadu Sakho-Jimbira & Houria Djoudi (Burkina
Faso), Arild Angelsen (Norway). Special thanks to our national partners from REDES, CEDLA, Libelula and DAR, REPOA, UEM, CODELT,
ICEL, ForestAction, CIEM, CERDA, Son La FD, UPNG, NRI-PNG, and UMB.
Thanks to contributors to case studies, analysis and review : Levania Santoso, Tim Cronin, Giorgio Indrarto, Prayekti Murharjanti, Josi
Khatarina, Irvan Pulungan, Feby Ivalerina, Justitia Rahman, Muhar Nala Prana, Caleb Gallemore (Indonesia), Nguyen Thi Hien,
Nguyen Huu Tho, Vu Thi Hien, Bui Thi Minh Nguyet, Nguyen Tuan Viet and Huynh Thu Ba (Vietnam), Dil Badhur, Rahul Karki, Bryan
Bushley, Naya Paudel (Nepal), Daniel McIntyre, Gae Gowae, Nidatha Martin, Nalau Bingeding, Ronald Sofe, Abel Simon (PNG), Walter
Arteaga, Bernado Peredo, Jesinka Pastor (Bolivia), Maria Fernanda Gebara, Brent Millikan, Bruno Calixto, Shaozeng Zhang (Brazil),
Hugo Piu, Javier Perla, Daniela Freundt, Eduardo Burga Barrantes, Talía Postigo Takahashi (Peru), Guy Patrice Dkamela, Felicien
Kengoum (Cameroon), Felicien Kabamba, Augustin Mpoyi, Angelique Mbelu (DRC), Demetrius Kweka, Therese Dokken, Rehema
Tukai, George Jambiya, Riziki Shemdoe, (Tanzania), Almeida Sitoe, Alda Salomão (Mozambique), Mathurin Zida, Michael Balinga
(Burkina Faso), Laila Borge (Norway), Vanessa Benn, Patrick Chesney and Pradeepa Bholanath (Guyana) and Grace Wong.
Special thanks to Efrian Muharrom, Sofi Mardiah, Christine Wairata, Ria Widjaja-Adhi, Cecilia Luttrell, Frances Seymour, Lou Verchot,
Markku Kanninen, Elena Petkova, Arild Angelsen, Jan Boerner, Anne Larson, Martin Herold, Rachel Carmenta, Juniarta Tjajadi,
Cynthia Maharani