This document discusses quantitative analysis and decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, risk, and certainty. It provides examples of how expected value, opportunity loss, and incremental analysis can be used to determine the optimal production level for a bread manufacturing company given demand probabilities. Under absolute uncertainty with no demand information, the optimal decision balances risk and potential loss. With some demand information, expected value analysis indicates producing 42 units. And with full certainty of demands, opportunity loss is minimized at 42 units as well. Quantitative methods can help decision-making even if outcomes may initially differ from reality in the short-term.