This presentation is about using well-known valuation principles in order to discover the stock market's expectation for a given company's stock. I begin by presenting a different take on the market and the best ways gain a competitive advantage for stock selection. Next, I present the PVGO Thought Process and the key factors that affect the formula. Finally, I walk through examples of using the PVGO Thought Process by analyzing the S&P 500, as well as in analyzing a stock that I would by today, McDonald's (NYSE:MCD).
Myths 1 : Performance is Not All
Myths 2 : Cheap is Better
Myths 3 : All Unit Trust Funds are Risky
Myths 4 : Unit Trust Funds Are Too Expensive
Myths 5 : Unit Trust is for Speculation and Short-Term
Swallow Financial Planning's presentation to clients explaining our investment strategy and our approach to investing for the long term.
The presentation briefly covers:
- why we believe in asset-backed investments;
- why asset classes perform differently;
- why we believe it’s essential to diversify your investments;
- why risk and reward are always related;
- why risk reduces over the long term and;
- why we prefer passive funds.
Business level strategy- BCG matrix for companies products and products under Products Life Cycle(PLC). this matrix is proposed by Boston Consulting Group.
Details the advantages volatility risk premium creates for put writing versus covered calls. Focused on passive long only investors. Basic option characteristics explained first.
Early Valuation for Entrepreneurs by John ShumatePlatform Houston
Early Valuation for Entrepreneurs by John Shumate
John Shumate is CEO of ValuLogik and has focused his career on working closely with venture-backed companies. He has worked with hundreds of early- and growth-stage companies across many industries, many of them dealing with highly-technical products or business models. He believes strongly in the use of carefully-applied rigor to rationalize financial models, business plans, valuations, and other quantification tools. He has over a decade of financial experience, including buy-side and sell-side mergers and acquisitions; debt and equity capital raises; strategic consulting; complex financial modeling; business plan development; equity and derivative valuation; and venture incubation. John recently served as Vice President at Blue Equity, a growth-stage private equity firm, and Chief Financial Officer at BellaNovus, an early-stage medical device development company. He was a Senior Associate at bCatalyst, a business incubator and financial services provider to early-stage companies. He has also held analytical roles for Ethicon-Endo Surgery, a division of Johnson & Johnson, and Hilliard-Lyons, a regional brokerage house. John attended the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, where he received a B.S. in Economics and dual concentrations in Finance and Management
Wallis Shipping Company Presentation 2014Ben Lasky
At Wallis Shipping we are set up to tailor our Freight Management services to your exact requirements. Our clients may have one off cargo shipments or engage in regular export and import trade. Either way from any point on the globe to any other we aim to make a World of Difference.
Myths 1 : Performance is Not All
Myths 2 : Cheap is Better
Myths 3 : All Unit Trust Funds are Risky
Myths 4 : Unit Trust Funds Are Too Expensive
Myths 5 : Unit Trust is for Speculation and Short-Term
Swallow Financial Planning's presentation to clients explaining our investment strategy and our approach to investing for the long term.
The presentation briefly covers:
- why we believe in asset-backed investments;
- why asset classes perform differently;
- why we believe it’s essential to diversify your investments;
- why risk and reward are always related;
- why risk reduces over the long term and;
- why we prefer passive funds.
Business level strategy- BCG matrix for companies products and products under Products Life Cycle(PLC). this matrix is proposed by Boston Consulting Group.
Details the advantages volatility risk premium creates for put writing versus covered calls. Focused on passive long only investors. Basic option characteristics explained first.
Early Valuation for Entrepreneurs by John ShumatePlatform Houston
Early Valuation for Entrepreneurs by John Shumate
John Shumate is CEO of ValuLogik and has focused his career on working closely with venture-backed companies. He has worked with hundreds of early- and growth-stage companies across many industries, many of them dealing with highly-technical products or business models. He believes strongly in the use of carefully-applied rigor to rationalize financial models, business plans, valuations, and other quantification tools. He has over a decade of financial experience, including buy-side and sell-side mergers and acquisitions; debt and equity capital raises; strategic consulting; complex financial modeling; business plan development; equity and derivative valuation; and venture incubation. John recently served as Vice President at Blue Equity, a growth-stage private equity firm, and Chief Financial Officer at BellaNovus, an early-stage medical device development company. He was a Senior Associate at bCatalyst, a business incubator and financial services provider to early-stage companies. He has also held analytical roles for Ethicon-Endo Surgery, a division of Johnson & Johnson, and Hilliard-Lyons, a regional brokerage house. John attended the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, where he received a B.S. in Economics and dual concentrations in Finance and Management
Wallis Shipping Company Presentation 2014Ben Lasky
At Wallis Shipping we are set up to tailor our Freight Management services to your exact requirements. Our clients may have one off cargo shipments or engage in regular export and import trade. Either way from any point on the globe to any other we aim to make a World of Difference.
This Facebook pitch deck illustrates the vast potential for investors, institutional and retail alike, to capitalize on the upside of the social media giant. We dissect the impact of Facebook's latest acquisitions, current and future growth rates, the NPV of the acquisitions and what it all means for Facebook shareholders going forward.
The slide deck we used to raise half a million dollarsBuffer
This is the pitchdeck we used to raise half a million dollars from Angel investors. More here:
http://onstartups.com/tabid/3339/bid/98034/The-Pitch-Deck-We-Used-To-Raise-500-000-For-Our-Startup.aspx
CMC Markets Trading Smart Series: Company FundamentalsCMCMarketsSG
At any given point in time, share prices tend to represent the sum of expectations about its value from all investors. Visit our website for more information -> http://www.cmcmarkets.com.sg
This presentation covers the topic of equity compensation from two disparate perspectives. 1) the point of view of an exit planning specialist 2) the point of view of a companies looking for long term executive and broad-based equity compensation solutions.
IB Business and Management (Standard Level)
All material taken from the IB Business and Management Textbook:
"Business and Management", Paul Hoang, IBID Press, Victoria, 2007
Similar to PVGO Thought Process for Equity Valuation (20)
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYC
PVGO Thought Process for Equity Valuation
1. The PVGO Thought Process For EquityValuation
By Michael O. Ijeh
July 16, 2016
2. Keynes’s Famous Beauty Contest Quote For The Stock Market
"It is not a case of choosing those [faces] that, to the best of one's judgment, are really the
prettiest, nor even those that average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest.We have reached
the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion
expects the average opinion to be.And there are some, I believe, who practice the fourth, fifth
and higher degrees.“
Keynes, GeneralTheory of Employment, Interest and Money, 1936
3. Keynes’s Belief – Is It True?
Keynes believed that behavior of a beauty pageant judge was happening in the stock market
This would have people pricing shares not based on what they think their fundamental value is, but rather on
what they think everyone else thinks their value is, or what everybody else would predict the average assessment
of value to be.
It could be true, but one can still gain a competitive advantage in the stock market by viewing the
market in a different manner
Based on “Keynesian Beauty Contest”Wikipedia webpage
4. How To Gain A Competitive Advantage In Stock Selection
Superior Forecast*
DifferentView of Valuation*
Understanding Investor Sentiment*
Having Insider Information
So is there a way to combine all of these methods for gaining a competitive
advantage in stock selection? (Well, maybe not the insider information)
*Based on FaVeS framework from AnalystSolutions
5. Challenges With TraditionalValuation Techniques
Market Approach (Multiples)
Can be tough finding a good peer group of
comparable companies since no two companies are
the same
Market valuations can fluctuate dramatically
Market prices aren’t always based on fundamentals
or expectations, but even on irrational behavior and
events uncorrelated to a company’s business
Implicit expectations are baked into a multiple
Income Approach (DCF)
Can be tough determine the forecast horizon and
the many assumptions that go along with the model
Shorter horizon – TerminalValue contributes too much
to theValue of the company
Longer horizon – Greater chance for forecasting error
and will probably be outside of investment horizon
Could possibly be “garbage in, garbage out”
And is there a way to combine both of these methods for stock selection?
6. So How Can an Investor Gain A Competitive Advantage Without Falling
Into The Common Pitfalls For EquityValuation?
By trying to understand potential returns the market expects from a stock for a
given investment horizon, and deciding if the market’s expectations are:
Too High,
Too Low, or
Just Right
From there, an investor can make a recommendation as to if a stock is truly under-,
over-, or fairly valued
7. So How Can We Understand The Market’s Expectations?
Can potentially be done by using the PresentValue of Growth Opportunities
(PVGO)Thought Process:
𝑽𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝑭𝒊𝒓𝒎 = 𝑽𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝑭𝒊𝒓𝒎 𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒉 𝑵𝒐 𝑮𝒓𝒐𝒘𝒕𝒉 + 𝑮𝒓𝒐𝒘𝒕𝒉 𝑬𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔
8. PVGO Thought Process
Based off of the Gordon Growth Model, using this train of thought can help an investor understand
the market’s expected returns for a given stock and weigh it against the risk
Goal of this process is to find stocks of companies that have low growth expectations relative to an
investor’s assessment of a company’s risk and potential returns
𝑽𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝑭𝒊𝒓𝒎 𝒕 =
𝑬𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒄 𝑩𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒇𝒊𝒕 𝒕+𝟏
𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒄. 𝑹𝒂𝒕𝒆−𝑮𝒓𝒐𝒘𝒕𝒉 𝑹𝒂𝒕𝒆
𝑽𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝑭𝒊𝒓𝒎 𝒕 =
𝑬𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒄 𝑩𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒇𝒊𝒕 𝒕
𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒄. 𝑹𝒂𝒕𝒆
+ 𝑷𝑽𝑮𝑶
9. Three Main Components Of The PVGO Thought Process
1. The Economic Benefit
I. Which “benefit” will be used? EPS, FCF, Dividends, EBITDA, Pretax Profits, etc.
II. Directly finding EquityValue or indirectly by finding the value of the enterprise first?
III. Timeframe of past “benefit”? LTM, 3 or 5 year average, weighted averages, etc.
2. The Discount Rate / Cost of Capital
I. CAPM
II. Build-up Model
III. Cost of Debt plus Risk Premium
3. Growth Expectations (PVGO %)
I. Past trends in growth and margins for the economic benefit used
II. Potential size of a company’s industry
III. Current part of Company/Industry life cycle
IV. Competitive Analysis
V. Other Fundamental Analysis
10. How PVGO Relates To A Company’s RiskWithin Their Life Cycle
PVGO, Discount Rates, and the Corporate Life Cycle
Growth Stage Start-up Young Growth High Growth Mature Growth Mature Stable Decline
Description Business idea
Create business
model
Build the business, creating revenues
Grow business via operating leverage,
create profitability
Defend business from new competitors and
markets
Scale down business, consolidate
Investing
Option Investing (go
for upside)
Growth Investing
(maximize value from
growth)
Scaling Investing (scale up growth)
Defensive Investing (protect the
competitive advantage)
Maintenance Investing (preserve value) Divesting (shed past investments)
Financing All Equity All Equity
First signs of debt capacity, but little
to no benefits
Debt capacity expands, and the benefits
of borrowing will start to exceed the
costs
Benefits of borrowing significantly exceed
costs
Pay down debt as assets are sold
Revenues None
Finding first
customers, may need
to "grow at all costs"
to gain traction
Revenue growth increases rapidly,
possibly even doubling every year
Revenue growth starts to slow down, but
still growing faster than the broad market
Revenues are more in line with the rest of
the broad market, as competitors start to
saturate the market
Revenues start to decline; only way to grow
significantly is via M&A
Profits / CF None
Cash burn is
extremely high
Signs of profitability start to appear
as losses decrease; business is close
to being CF positive
Profitability starts to grow significantly via
operating leverage
Profitability growth starts to slow down;
business may start to accumulate cash on
hand
Profitability drops off dramatically, as assets are
sold, decreasing the business's earnings power
Value Driver
(Economic
Benefit)
Market Potential
Key Performing
Indicators / Operating
Data
Revenue / Gross Cash Flow Adj. Cash Flow / EBIT / EBITDA Free Cash Flow / Net Earnings Book Value / invested Capital / Dividends
Discount Rate
(Cost of
Equity)
Extremely high, as the
chance of failure is
very high (>40%)
Still very high, as the
business model is still
uproven (30-40%)
Not as high as before since the
business model has gained traction,
but still high due to little to no
profitability (25-30%)
As the business begins to grow profits
and cash flows, the question now is if the
business can be scaled up; returns are still
expected to be higher than the broad
market (15-25%)
As revenues become more in line with the
rest of the broad market, so too should
investor's expectations for returns, as the
business's operational results start to
become more predictable (7-15%)
Investor expectations aligns with what growth
within the entire sector and the overall economy
(4-7%)
PVGO %
Well above 100%, if
not closer to 1000%
due to the market
potential
Still well above 100%;
must start paying
attention to
investments and
understand how
they'll enhance value
Still at or around 100%, especially if
the business is close to or just
becoming profitable
PVGO finally starts to decline, as the
business starts to reach it's potential
from a profitability standpoint; dividends
may start to come into play (50-90%)
Similar to Revenues and the discount rate,
PVGO starts to align with the broad market
as well (25-50%)
PVGO is below the market, as profits are
expected to continue to decrease; may start to
expect dividends to drive PVGO more than
growth in profits (0-25%)
11. How PVGO Relates To A Company’s RiskWithin Their Life Cycle (Cont.)
Time
Growth in Revenues and ProfitsThroughout the
CLC
Revenues Profits
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Time
Discount Rate and PVGO %Throughout CLC
PVGO (LHS) Discount Rate (RHS)
Young Growth
Young
Growth
Start-up
Start-up
High
Growth
High
Growth
Mature
Growth
Mature
Growth
Mature
Stable
Mature
Stable
Decline
Decline
14. What The PVGOThought Process Can Tell Us About The Market Over
The Past 25Years…
Since 1990, the average market participant could expect:
2% DividendYield,
7-8% EPS Growth,
8-9% Discount Rate based off of CAPM for Cost of Equity,
9-10% Discount Rate based off of GGM for Cost of Equity,
And 35% of the price based on future growth expectations
15. And What About TheTypical Investor’s Time Horizon?
Based on the range of Discount Rates (7-10%), the PVGO Though Process shows that the typical investor’s time
horizon within the market is anywhere from 4-7 years
At a 7% Discount Rate
No-Growth %
64%
PVGO %
36%
$100 $55
Years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6.5
$100 $107 $114 $123 $131 $140 $150 $155
At a 10% Discount Rate
No-Growth %
65%
PVGO %
35%
$100 $54
Years 0 1 2 3 4 4.5
$100 $110 $121 $133 $146 $154
16. So What About The S&P 500 Index Now?
1. Economic Benefit Used
1. TTM EPS (1Q15-1Q16)
1. $98.61 – from S&P Dow Jones Indices - S&P 500 Earnings And Estimate Report, 7/7/16
2. Discount Rate Used
1. 1.53% - 10Year U.S.Treasury Note for 7/14/16
2. 6.27% - (+) Implied ERP - TTM CashYield from Aswath Damodaran’s website
3. 7.80% - Discount Rate
3. PVGO %
1. $98.61 – TTM EPS
2. 7.80% - (/) Discount Rate
3. $1,264.23 – MarketValue of S&P 500 with No-Growth Expectations
17. Implications of S&P 500’s PVGO Status
With the S&P 500 at $2,161.74 (7/15/16), the No-Growth value of the S&P 500 represents 58% of the market price, meaning 42% of the market
price represents expected growth in value in the future
The PVGO % represents 20% CAGR over a 3 year investment horizon, or a 9% CAGR over a 5 year investment horizon
The key question to ask is are the implied growth rates of the market reasonable, too optimistic, or too pessimistic?
For comparison, the S&P 500 Earnings And Estimate Report from S&P Dow Jones Indices projects 23% EPS growth for the next twelve months, and
17% CAGR through the end of 2017
Don’t forget that the LT average for PVGO % is around 35%, for 8-10% annual rate of return when taking dividends into consideration, which is still
yields around 2%, which accounts for 6% of the PVGO % for a 3 year horizon and 9% PVGO % for a 5 year horizon, and if share repurchases
continue to happen, then EPS growth might not need to be as high to reach current market expectations
At a 20% Discount Rate
No-Growth %
58%
PVGO %
42%
$100 $73
Years 0 1 2 3
$100 $120 $144 $173
At a 11% Discount Rate
No-Growth %
59%
PVGO %
41%
$100 $69
Years 0 1 2 3 4 5
$100 $111 $123 $137 $152 $169
18. So What AboutValuing a Company? McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) Maybe…
1. Economic Benefit Used
1. TTM FCF in $MM (CFO – CAPX) (1Q15-1Q16)
1. $4,476 – from Morningstar’s Financial Calculations, 7/15/16
2. Discount Rate Used
1. 6.27% - (+) Implied ERP - TTM CashYield from Aswath Damodaran’s website
2. 0.52 - (x) MCD’s Beta from Google Finance and Zacks, 7/15/16
3. 3.26% - ERP for MCD
4. 1.53% - (+) 10Year U.S.Treasury Note for 7/14/16
5. 4.79% - MCD’s Discount Rate
3. PVGO %
1. $4,476 – TTM FCF in $MM
2. 4.79% - (/) Discount Rate
3. $99,073.15 – MarketValue of MCD with No-Growth Expectations ($MM), or ~$112/Share
19. Implications of MCD’s PVGO Status
With MCD having a market cap of at $109,409 MM, or ~$124/share (7/15/16), the No-Growth value of MCD represents 91% of the market price, meaning only
9% of the market price represents expected growth in value in the future
The PVGO % represents about 3.5% CAGR over a 3 year investment horizon, or a 2% CAGR over a 5 year investment horizon
The key question to ask again is are the implied growth rates of the market reasonable, too optimistic, or too pessimistic?
Remember, MCD is currently paying a near 3% dividend yield, which means that there has to be plenty of FCF to distribute, in which there is based on MCD’s
overall franchising strategy and 15-19% FCF margin, essentially being a Cash Cow
If any growth in FCF or FCF margin happens in the near future, MCD will be well worth the investment, especially if a potential investor believes that MCD
expanding their all-day breakfast menu will lead to more cash flow for dividend growth, or higher growth expectations, which will lead to multiple expansion and
appreciation in MCD’s stock price
This may lead an investor to think that the market expectations are too pessimistic, unless fears from slower international sales from Brexit, or if U.S. same-store
sales growth becomes stagnant because customers might not react well to MCD increase prices and having higher-quality food will slowdown FCF generation
At a 3.5% Discount Rate
No-Growth %
90%
PVGO %
10%
$100 $11
Years 0 1 2 3
$100 $104 $107 $111
At a 2% Discount Rate
No-Growth %
91%
PVGO %
9%
$100 $10
Years 0 1 2 3 4 5
$100 $102 $104 $106 $108 $110
20. Conclusion
The PVGO Thought Process can be used as an attempt to quantify the market’s growth expectations for a stock
Can lead to higher accuracy in forecasting economic benefits and understanding investor sentiment for a
company’s stock
Can also be used to understand what stage the market may think a company is at in their Corporate Life Cycle
This process is best used for investors that fully understand the major inputs:
1. Economic Benefit
2. Discount Rate
3. PVGO % of the company relative to it’s own history and peers
4. An investor’s time horizon
21. Key Resources
Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better
Returns by Michael J. Mauboussin – CFA Publications
(September 2006)
Fundamental Analysis and Market Prices Presentation for
the OIV Conference by Stephen Penman
Aswath Damodaran’s website and publications
New Construct’s website
Valuation: Measuring and Managing theValue of
Companies: Fourth Edition – byTim Koller, Marc
Goedhart, and DavidWessels
Understanding BusinessValuation – by Gary R.Trugman
Best Practices for Equity Research Analyst and
AnalystSolutions website by JamesValentine
Morningstar’s website
Zacks’ website
Marketwatch’s website
Barron’s website
Federal Reserve Economic Data
S&P Dow Jones Indices