Putting Children First: Identifying solutions and taking action to tackle poverty and inequality in Africa. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 23-25 October 2017 This three-day international conference aimed to engage policy makers, practitioners and researchers in identifying solutions for fighting child poverty and inequality in Africa, and in inspiring action towards change. The conference offered a platform for bridging divides across sectors, disciplines and policy, practice and research.

1. Mapping and Analysing
Multi-dimensional Child Poverty
at the Local Government Area Level
in Nigeria: A Small Area Estimation
Approach
Falowo S., Ajibuah B. J. and Egharevba B.
Addis Ababa -October, 2017

2. Structure
1) Child Poverty
2) Small Area Estimation
3) Maps and results
4) Applicationsand next steps

3. What defines that a child is poor?
Child Poverty
Child right violations
Nutrition
Education
Water and Sanitation
Health
Housing
Information
.

4. Continuum of Deprivation and Child Poverty
No Deprivation Extreme Deprivation
Mild Moderate Severe
E.g. : Childrenwho have never been to school
Childrenin dwellings with more than five people per room
Childrenwhose heights and weights are 3 SD below the norm

5. How do we measure Child Poverty?
Combining Deprivations
Lack of health service
Lack of water
No Education
.
Malnutrition
There are not 7 but 4 deprived children

6. Measuring child poverty
In this case, with a threshold of 1 unfulfilled right,
50 % of the children would be considered poor.
We also know which children are missing which right.
Access to: A B C D
Water (Only surface water such as rivers or ponds) √ √ √ √
Sanitation (No access to a toilet facility of any kind) √ √ NO √
Health (No immunization against any diseases) √ √ √ √
Nutrition (3 st. dev. below the international norm) √ √ NO √
Shelter (Five or more people per room) √ NO √ √
Education (Never been to school) √ √ √ √
Information (No radio, television, or mobile phone) √ √ NO √
Poor:At least one right not fulfilled NO √ √ NO

7. Rivers
Ekiti
Osun
Lagos
Ogun
Oyo
Delta
Bayelsa
Ondo
Edo
Kogi
Niger
Kwara
Kebbi
Kaduna
Sokoto
Zamfara
Adamawa
AbiaImo
Anambra
Enugu
CrossRiver
AkwaIbom
Benue
Ebonyi
Taraba
Plateau
FCT
Nassarawa
Katsina
Kano
Jigawa
GombeBauchi
Yobe
Borno
Incidence of child poverty
80- 90%
Above 90%
70- 80 %
40-60 %
60 - 70 %

8. Small Area Estimates (I)
• Nigeria: 36 States + FCT
• 774 Local Government Areas (LGAs)
• MICS 2016, representative only at State level
– Kano and Lagos oversampled
• Census 2006, representative at smallest
administrativelevel
– Can be aggregated to be representative at LGA level

9. Small Area Estimates (II)
• But Census does not cover all Child Poverty
indicators
– Water
– Sanitation
– Education
– Housing
– Information
• How to obtain LGA estimates?

10. Small Area Estimates (III)
• State level data from MICS
• Correlations
• Logistic Regressions
– Nutrition on water, sanitation, education
– Immunization on water, sanitation, education
• Coefficientsused on LGA data from Census
• Estimate LGA Nutrition and Immunization

11. State
LGA
Household
Water
Sanitation Nutrition
HealthEducation
EducationWater Sanitation
Information
Housing
Housing Information

12. Non-linear Multivariate Regression
(a linear one will not do as it would predict more than 100% coverage)
O
100 % immunization
X3 = SanitationX2 = WaterX1 = Education

13. Non-linear Multivariate Regression (II)
• Coefficients used on LGA data from Census
– E.g. if usage of improved sources of drinking water is
30%,
– if usage of improved sanitation facilities is 20%,
– and if net primary school attendance is 55%,
– then stunting is expected to be 42%
– As it is not a linear regression, slopes are not constant
• Estimate LGA Nutrition and Immunization
– They cannot be calculated from MICS for LGA

14. State
LGA
Household
Water
Sanitation Nutrition
HealthEducation
EducationWater Sanitation
Water Sanitation
Education
Aggregation from households (from Census) to LGA level
Housing
Housing
Information
Information
Housing
Information

15. State
LGA
Household
Water
Sanitation Nutrition
HealthEducation
EducationWater Sanitation
Water Sanitation
Education
Housing
Housing
Information
Information
Housing
Information
Regression coefficients used on available LGA data Nutrition
Health
Aggregation from households (from Census) to LGA level

16. Maps and results
Map1: % Childrenwith no educationof who dropped out of
school

17. Map2: % Childrenwith no immunization

18. Map3: % Childrenwithout access to safe water

19. Map4: % Childrenwithout access to sanitation

20. Map5 % MalnourishedChildren(3 standard deviations)

21. ChildPoverty (%)

22. Maps and results :
Results (Finding)
• Lack of water, sanitation, health, and shelter are
most severe in the North-East and North-West.
• LGAs where there are the city centers have better
access to educationand safe and clean water
• Bad and Worst LGAs are mostly rural
• This information and the classificationinto Worst,
Bad, Middle, Good, and Best LGAs is being used to
assess and evaluate national and donor-funded
strategies and their locationsin Nigeria.

23. Applications and next steps
• LGAs ranked from highest to lowest incidence of
Child Poverty
• LGAs clustered in 3 groups: High, Medium, Low
Child Poverty
• LGAs ranked from highest to lowest for each
separate dimension of Child Poverty
• LGAs classified as ConsistentlyGood, Average, Bad
across the dimensions
• The two rankings combined in a 3X3 table
• Table used to obtain five groups: Best, Good,
Middle,Bad, Worst LGAs

24. THANK YOU!