This document discusses pro-poor growth and provides definitions and theoretical underpinnings. It defines pro-poor growth as growth that significantly reduces absolute poverty. White and Anderson propose 3 definitions, including when the poor's share of income exceeds their current share. Theories from the 1970s suggested inequality causes growth, but empirical evidence now rejects this Kuznets hypothesis. Current debates examine whether inequality initially affects growth rates or vice versa.
First Lecture delivered under the course - Poverty and Environment taught at the Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka
First Lecture delivered under the course - Poverty and Environment taught at the Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka
Poverty and Inequality Measurement.pptxKirti441999
This ppt talks about the poverty and inequality measures as mentioned in Alkire and Santos Chapter 6.
It talks about the various measures of poverty and the limitations of using income measurement as a criteria of poverty.
Poverty has been assigned as the number one problem for development of Bangladesh.
Though the country is making significant progress in the socio-economic field, poverty reduction is rather slow. This is mainly because of its high population size of 130 million (population census-2001) in an area of 1,41,000 sq. km. with a population density 840 per sq. km.
Every year, about 2 million population are adding to its population size. Country’s resources are struggling to support such increasing population.
A presentation paper on Economic Inequality in Developing Country. The paper shows how the economic inequality in developing country is, how it is measured, and how it affects the economy of a developing country. By Sadman Joa.
Poverty is general scarcity or the state of one who lacks a certain amount of material possessions or money. It is a multifaceted concept, which includes social, economic, and political elements. Poverty in Pakistan has fallen dramatically, independent bodies supported estimates of a considerable fall in the statistic by the 2007-08 fiscal year, when it was estimated that 17.2% of the total population lived below the poverty line
This theory throws light on changes in birth and death rate and consequently on the growth rate of population. The relationship between birth and death rate changes with economic development and a country has to pass through different stages of population growth. This theory depicts the four stages of demographic transition that a country has to pass.
ECON 22134. Poverty and InequalityMeasuring povertyTo .docxjack60216
ECON 2213
4. Poverty and Inequality
Measuring poverty
To measure poverty, we first need to decide on a poverty line, such that those below it are considered poor. We can use an absolute poverty line (e.g., the World Bank’s $1 or $2 per day poverty line) or a relative poverty line (e.g., half of median income).
The most common way to measure poverty is to use the poverty rate or headcount ratio: this is the share of the population below the poverty line.
Measuring poverty
The poverty rate is simple and easy to understand, but has weaknesses.
First, the poverty rate does not indicate the depth or intensity of poverty, i.e., how far below the poverty line poor people are.
Second, the poverty rate does not change if people below the poverty line become poorer.
These weaknesses are addressed with the poverty gap. This adds up the extent to which individuals on average fall below the poverty line and expresses it as a percentage of the poverty line.
Measuring poverty
The squared poverty gap (or poverty severity index) takes into account inequality among the poor. This is a weighted sum of poverty gaps, where the weights are the poverty gaps themselves (e.g., a poverty gap of 10% of the poverty line gets a weight of 10%, a poverty gap of 50% of the poverty line gets a weight of 50%, etc.), thereby putting more weight on individuals who are far below the poverty line.
Measuring poverty
In Canada, we measure poverty based on a person’s or household’s income. In low-income countries, it may be better to measure poverty based on consumption, as consumption may be more accurately measured, and many workers may receive in-kind income (e.g., food).
Other measures of well-being can be used, such as the Human Development Index, education, life expectancy, infant mortality, or Sen’s “capabilities” approach.
Measuring inequality
The Gini coefficient or Gini index is the most common measure of inequality. The Gini coefficient is a number between 0 (perfect equality) and 1 (perfect inequality).
A Gini is based on a Lorenz curve, which shows how much of a country’s income is received by various percentages of the population; Gini is the ratio of the area between the line of complete equality and the Lorenz curve to the area of the triangle between the line of complete equality and the axes.
The formula for the Gini index is:
Measuring inequality
Other ways to measure inequality include the range (top earner minus bottom earner), the ratio (top earner divided by bottom earner), the coefficient of variation (standard deviation divided by mean), and the Theil index, which is one of a set of generalized entropy measures.
The Theil index has a strong advantage over the Gini, as it is decomposable into between-group and within-group inequality.
The formula for the Theil T index is:
Measuring inequality
Inequality can be measured:
Within a household.
Between households.
Within a village.
Between villages.
Within ...
Poverty and Inequality Measurement.pptxKirti441999
This ppt talks about the poverty and inequality measures as mentioned in Alkire and Santos Chapter 6.
It talks about the various measures of poverty and the limitations of using income measurement as a criteria of poverty.
Poverty has been assigned as the number one problem for development of Bangladesh.
Though the country is making significant progress in the socio-economic field, poverty reduction is rather slow. This is mainly because of its high population size of 130 million (population census-2001) in an area of 1,41,000 sq. km. with a population density 840 per sq. km.
Every year, about 2 million population are adding to its population size. Country’s resources are struggling to support such increasing population.
A presentation paper on Economic Inequality in Developing Country. The paper shows how the economic inequality in developing country is, how it is measured, and how it affects the economy of a developing country. By Sadman Joa.
Poverty is general scarcity or the state of one who lacks a certain amount of material possessions or money. It is a multifaceted concept, which includes social, economic, and political elements. Poverty in Pakistan has fallen dramatically, independent bodies supported estimates of a considerable fall in the statistic by the 2007-08 fiscal year, when it was estimated that 17.2% of the total population lived below the poverty line
This theory throws light on changes in birth and death rate and consequently on the growth rate of population. The relationship between birth and death rate changes with economic development and a country has to pass through different stages of population growth. This theory depicts the four stages of demographic transition that a country has to pass.
ECON 22134. Poverty and InequalityMeasuring povertyTo .docxjack60216
ECON 2213
4. Poverty and Inequality
Measuring poverty
To measure poverty, we first need to decide on a poverty line, such that those below it are considered poor. We can use an absolute poverty line (e.g., the World Bank’s $1 or $2 per day poverty line) or a relative poverty line (e.g., half of median income).
The most common way to measure poverty is to use the poverty rate or headcount ratio: this is the share of the population below the poverty line.
Measuring poverty
The poverty rate is simple and easy to understand, but has weaknesses.
First, the poverty rate does not indicate the depth or intensity of poverty, i.e., how far below the poverty line poor people are.
Second, the poverty rate does not change if people below the poverty line become poorer.
These weaknesses are addressed with the poverty gap. This adds up the extent to which individuals on average fall below the poverty line and expresses it as a percentage of the poverty line.
Measuring poverty
The squared poverty gap (or poverty severity index) takes into account inequality among the poor. This is a weighted sum of poverty gaps, where the weights are the poverty gaps themselves (e.g., a poverty gap of 10% of the poverty line gets a weight of 10%, a poverty gap of 50% of the poverty line gets a weight of 50%, etc.), thereby putting more weight on individuals who are far below the poverty line.
Measuring poverty
In Canada, we measure poverty based on a person’s or household’s income. In low-income countries, it may be better to measure poverty based on consumption, as consumption may be more accurately measured, and many workers may receive in-kind income (e.g., food).
Other measures of well-being can be used, such as the Human Development Index, education, life expectancy, infant mortality, or Sen’s “capabilities” approach.
Measuring inequality
The Gini coefficient or Gini index is the most common measure of inequality. The Gini coefficient is a number between 0 (perfect equality) and 1 (perfect inequality).
A Gini is based on a Lorenz curve, which shows how much of a country’s income is received by various percentages of the population; Gini is the ratio of the area between the line of complete equality and the Lorenz curve to the area of the triangle between the line of complete equality and the axes.
The formula for the Gini index is:
Measuring inequality
Other ways to measure inequality include the range (top earner minus bottom earner), the ratio (top earner divided by bottom earner), the coefficient of variation (standard deviation divided by mean), and the Theil index, which is one of a set of generalized entropy measures.
The Theil index has a strong advantage over the Gini, as it is decomposable into between-group and within-group inequality.
The formula for the Theil T index is:
Measuring inequality
Inequality can be measured:
Within a household.
Between households.
Within a village.
Between villages.
Within ...
Addressing the political economy of conditional cash transfer as a poverty re...AJHSSR Journal
This paper examines the political economy of the conditional cash transfer (CCT) Scheme in
Nigeria within the context of poverty reduction efforts over the years. The concept, dimensions and some
theoretical explanations for poverty are once again revisited. The nature and operation of condition cash transfer
is examined, with an eye on the economics and politics of this scheme. Authors observe that as a social
redistribution programme, CCT is a potent safety net that could really help to break the cycle of poverty among
the very poor in the country. However, within the Nigerian context, the paper observes that the issues of a clear
cut target, beneficiaries, lack of institution framework, including a standardized Monitoring and Evaluation
(ME) procedure, coupled with the obvious use of the CCT for political expedience all aggregate to dim the
possibility, viability and potency of the CCT‟S success in reducing poverty in Nigeria. However suggestions are
made against the background of how this programme is being operated elsewhere in the world, as to how to
improve the operation of this scheme in the overall matrix of poverty reduction in Nigeria.
The anti-globalization movement had its coming-out party in Seattle in 1999, when thousands of activists and trade union members protested against a new round of trade negotiations in the World Trade Organisation. Millions were drawn to these protests because of a preceding anti-WTO statement that was circulated on the internet, and signed by about 1 500 different groups, from churches to militant communists.
El jueves 17 de mayo del 2018 se organizó una Mesa Redonda en la Fundación Ramón Areces, en la cual se habló sobre las subidas de tipos en la era Trump y la nueva globalización.
1. Using our interactive population graphics, match each of the ag.docxjackiewalcutt
1. Using our interactive population graphics, match each of the age-sex population pyramids (labeled A through F) with the appropriate description.
(Points : 1)
Potential Matches:
1 : a country at close to zero population growth (Norway 1992)
2 : a country with many temporary immigrant workers (Qatar 1986)
3 : a country that shows the demographic effects of World War II (Russia 1992)
4 : a country that has undergone a recent shift from high to low fertility (China 1990)
5 : a country with declining population (Italy 1991)
6 : a country with rapid population growth (Tanzania 1985)
Answer
: A (top left)
: B (top center)
: C (top right)
: D (bottom left)
: E (bottom center)
: F (bottom right)
Question 2. 2. This is the first of four questions based on the interactive India-demographics tool. These graphs allow you to visualize the future population of India, as it changes throughout the 21st Century, under a variety of scenarios regarding changing fertility rates. All the scenarios start in 2000 with the following conditions:
· a total population of 1.014 billion
· a total fertility rate of 3.4
· a crude birth rate of 26.4 per thousand
· a crude death rate of 8.9 per thousand
Based on these numbers, what was India's rate of natural increase (i.e., annual population growth excluding net migration) in 2005? Note that you don't need to actually use the linked website to answer this question, since all of the numbers you need to calculate an answer are included above. (Points : 1)
0.55%
0.95%
1.75%
2.40%
3.10%
Question 3. 3. This is the second question based on the interactive India-demographics tool. One way we might establish a baseline for comparing alternative scenarios is to assume that the starting conditions persist indefinitely into the future. To do this using our tool, set the "Final Total Fertility Rate" to 3.4.
You'll see from the graphs, that this effectively freezes India in the middle of its demographic transition--longer life expectancies and lower death rates than in the pre-modern era, but birth rates hovering at a relatively high 24 or 25 per thousand. If this were actually to happen, the model shows us that India would end the century with a population of more than 3.6 billion! In what year would India's population first eclipse the two billion mark, double its turn-of-the-century size? (Points : 1)
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Question 4. 4. This is the third question based on the interactive India-demographics tool. In the previous question we tested one extreme scenario: fixing India's fertility rate at present levels. The opposite extreme would involve a sudden drop in fertility to well below the modern replacement rate, as actually has happened in much of Europe and East Asia. To view this scenario, set the "Final Total Fertility Rate" to 1.5, and leave the "Years to Achieve Final TFR" at zero.
You'll see from ...
"Since the late 1990s, the term “pro-poor growth” has attained a prominent place in the vocabulary of the development community. This note argues that the net effect of this term’s appearance has been to reduce the prevailing quality of thinking, by directing attention away from the real issues connecting growth and poverty reduction. As matters stand, continuing to use the term “pro-poor growth” is harmful for at least three reasons:" (Open to know which ones)
HLEG thematic workshop on Measurement of Well Being and Development in Africa...StatsCommunications
HLEG thematic workshop on Measurement of Well Being and Development in Africa, 12-14 November 2015, Durban, South Africa, More information at: www.oecd.org/statistics/measuring-economic-social-progress
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
How Does CRISIL Evaluate Lenders in India for Credit RatingsShaheen Kumar
CRISIL evaluates lenders in India by analyzing financial performance, loan portfolio quality, risk management practices, capital adequacy, market position, and adherence to regulatory requirements. This comprehensive assessment ensures a thorough evaluation of creditworthiness and financial strength. Each criterion is meticulously examined to provide credible and reliable ratings.
2. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
Lecture Outline
(i) What is pro-poor growth?
(ii) What are the Theoretical Under-pinning of Pro-Poor
Growth?
(iii) Methodology
(iv) Evidence of pro-poor growth?
(v) Policies for pro-poor growth: 1970s vs. present?
3. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
(i) What is pro-poor growth?
Definition of Pro-Poor Growth:
“…growth that leads to significant reductions in (absolute)
poverty”
(OECD 2001, and UN 2000) – italics added in brackets.
Too broad for economists since what definition of poverty do
researchers use? Kraay (2004) makes this point in his World
Bank Working Paper No. 3225, “When is Growth Pro-Poor?”
4. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
A basic idea from the works of White and Anderson
(2001) and Kakwani and Pernia (2000) is that any
increase in growth should benefit the poor more than
the rich.
This really is “inequality-reducing” growth rather than
pro-poor growth – is concerned with relative poverty.
The question is, “Should new growth benefit the
poor more, thus increasing their incomes and thus
reducing inequality, whilst the rest of society sees
little income improvement?”
5. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
If, ‘Yes’ to this then could have the issue of national
income increasing by 5% but income of the poor
increasing by 7%: whereas there could be a possibility
of growth for the poor of 7% when national income
increased by 10%.
The poor in the second scenario are absolutely better off,
but are relatively worse-off compared to the non-poor:
In the first scenario the poor are absolutely worse-off
compared to scenario 2, but are relatively better off.
6. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
(Q) So which one is better?
(A) In poor countries better absolute improvements preferred
to relative improvements, at least initially…..
Problem with the above ‘inequality-reducing’ scenario is that
we do not know whether following an inequality-reducing
growth plan will result in lower growth or higher growth.
So we want to have improvements in both absolute levels of
income (absolute poverty tackled) and relative levels of income
(relative income of poor improves and income inequality
declines?).
7. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Formalising these issues has been undertaken by White and
Anderson (2001)
White and Anderson (2001): 3 definitions of pro-poor
growth
(1) The poor’s share of incremental income exceeds their
current share.
This means that the incremental increase in the level of income
to the poor>incremental increase in the level of income for all of
society,
8. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Where the numerator represents change in income of
the poor, the denominator is the change in income of
society and represents the income share of the poor
in the last time period, t-1.
1
)
1
/(
)
1
(
t
t
Y
t
Y
p
t
Y
p
t
Y
1
t
9. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
So,
There is a relative improvement of the poor.
This can be shown diagrammatically,
1
,
)
1
/(
)
1
(
t
t
thus
and
t
t
Y
t
Y
p
t
Y
p
t
Y
10. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
Y, T growth
Time
Changes in Y, between t
and t-1
change in Y for non-poor
between t-1 and t
change in Y for the poor
between t-1 and t:
If then pro-poor
growth.
1
t
t
t-1 t
11. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
The problem with definition (1) is that the poor’s share
can increase slightly and the richest 10% or 15% can
still cream off much more and this is pro-poor
growth.
E.g. If poorest 20% have 5% of income and the richest
20% have 40% of income then if in every extra $1 the
poorest get 10cents and the richest 30cents then still have
PPG.
If in the above then White and Anderson
(2001, pp. 269) coin the phrase anti-poor growth (APG).
1
t
t
12. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
(2) The second definition brings into the equation the share of
people in a country who are defined as ‘poor’. Formally,
Where the P term represents the share of poor
people/households in the country.
What the equation is saying is that the increase in the share of the
poor’s income>share of the number of poor in the country’s
population.
N
p
N
o
P
t
Y
t
Y
p
t
Y
p
t
Y /
)
1
/(
)
1
(
13. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Can be re-arranged so that,
These represent average income levels of the poor and of
society, and can be further simplified to,
)
/
1
(
)
/
1
(
)
/
(
)
/
( N
t
Y
p
N
p
t
Y
N
t
Y
p
N
p
t
Y
Y
p
Y
or
t
Y
p
t
Y
t
Y
p
t
Y
,
1
1
14. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
The change in average income of poor>change
in average income of society.
Problem with definition 2 is that it is too
restrictive and under this definition few
countries actually have pro-poor growth.
15. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Definition 3
Take an ‘international’ norm of median income shares
of the bottom 20% and 40% (can choose any %).
Issue here is that “if the poor’s share currently exceeds
the international norm then their share of incremental
income can be less than their current share and thus
qualify as PPG” (ibid, pp. 269).
16. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Another Definition of Pro-Poor Growth:
“…focuses on accelerating the rate of income growth of the poor and thus increase the rate of poverty
reduction”
(Ravallion and Chen, 2003)
Pro-Poor Growth = F(GDP growth)
Changes in income equality have an ambiguous effect on pro-poor growth since can
impact on GDP growth.
Thus, if pro-poor growth is to accelerate then need to accelerate growth but also need
to enhance and make poor households aware of the opportunities growth generates.
Hence there is no one agreed definition of what PPG actually is….hence a huge debate
as to whether PPG has occurred or not!!
17. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor
growth?
(ii) What are the Theoretical Under-pinning of Pro-Poor
Growth?
Gunnar Myrdal in 1920s and 1930s India argued that initial
income inequality was an important factor in improving the
quality of people and hence productivity.
Ravallion and Datt (2002) report larger absolute poverty-
household income elasticities in countries with lower gini
indices.
.
6
.
0
1
%
/
%
.
25
.
0
3
%
/
%
is
index
gini
if
Y
P
is
index
gini
if
Y
P
HH
HH
HH
HH
18. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor
growth?
(ii) What are the Theoretical Under-pinning of Pro-Poor Growth?
The idea here is that any growth that does occur is likely to benefit more
people if income inequality is low in the first place.
(Q) So what then determines income inequality?
Assets – particularly land in LDCs
Education
Networks
Rural-Urban
Property Rights, Legal System
19. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
(ii) What are the Theoretical Under-pinnings of Pro-Poor Growth? Cont…
The 1970s…
In the 1970s the ‘Redistribution with Growth’ development economists believed in the
inverted-U hypothesis of Kuznets.
Kuznets inverted-U of growth and inequality:
Stage 1: low per capita income level, low income inequality.
Stage 2: per capita income increases with development, income inequality
rises.
Stage 3: gets to a point where per capita income increases with continued
development, income inequality declines.
20. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Evidence from Ahluwalia (1976) supports the Kuznets hypothesis,
by simply regressing inequality onto income and income-squared:
He found that as economic growth increased so income inequality
increased ( ) but at a decreasing rate ( ): however
unsure where the turning point is!
2
2
1 Y
Y
Inequality
ve
1
ve
2
Growth Inequality
Growth Leads to
21. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
The Redistribution with Growth economists
argued (in line with Kaldor’s growth model) that
inequality caused growth since the rich had a
higher marginal propensity to save.
Also Lewis’s model of economic development
with unlimited labour supply was consistent with
rising income inequality through profits of
entrepreneurs growing more quickly than wages.
22. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Empirical Rejection of Kuznets, 1980s-1990s…
Rejected in Bruno, Ravallion and Squire, (1996) since much of
the empirical evidence of the 1970s and 1980s was flawed, and
studies were actually capturing between-country effects not within-
country effects.
By using panel estimates country-specific effects, time effects
and joint country and time effects are captured and the Kuznets
U-shaped curve disappears.
Studies find that between-country effects are causing the
inverted-U shape and that for some countries (e.g. India) the
relationship between inequality and income is simply U-shaped:
Inequality high, then low, then high again as growth increases.
23. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Currently whilst the theoretical debate continues as to whether economic
growth causes income inequality to change, the empirical evidence is stacking
up against a correlation in the first place.
E.g. Deininger and Squire (1996), Chen and Ravallion (1997), Easterly (1999),
Dollar and Kraay (2002) and Deaton (2005). According to Fields (1989,
2001),
Method should be looking at country-specific analysis – when Fields (1989)
looked at 70 growth spells across 20 countries he found that inequality rose in
10 countries, decreased in 11 and remained unchanged in 1.
“…income inequality increased in about half the growth spells and declined in the other
half.”
(World Bank, 2005, pp.17)
24. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
New Theories of Pro-Poor Growth?
Initial income inequality feeds into poor growth or greater
income equality positively affects growth rates.
Based largely on the conflicting progress of East Asia (e.g. South
Korea and Taiwan) and Latin America.
Latin America: notoriously unequal in income distribution (Brazil
regularly found to have the highest Gini coefficient).
High Initial Inequality Low Growth
25. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
This means that any growth benefits the rich only and
tends to be skills-biased and capital intensive, thus the
poor have no chance of getting a piece of the
expanding pie: relative poverty increasing.
The income inequality also means that consumption is
relatively low since the rich have low MPC which
negatively effects AD and growth.
26. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
East-Asia growth of the 1960s and beyond has seen no conflict between growth
and income distribution, meaning income inequality remains constant as growth increased.
(Q) Is there a theory that can explain this?
(1) The mechanism given for this ‘income inequality-neutral’ path is that low
initial income inequality results in more evenly distributed economic growth.
The reason is that consumption expenditure patterns are similar amongst the poor
for goods which they themselves produce hence generating demand for these
labour-intensive products: hence mass consumption takes off rather than
consumption being driven by the minority.
(2) Also the case that savings of the poor can be channelled if appropriate
investment opportunities are in evidence.
27. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
(iii) Methodology
Dominant Method - Cross-Country Studies (Time
Series and Panels).
Has growth affected absolute poverty, relative poverty
and been pro-poor or not.
28. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Method I – Cross-Country Studies
White and Anderson (2001): find a negative relationship
between growth and income growth of the poor: i.e.
growth negatively effects the portion/share of income the
poorest of the population get.
29. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Back to the pro-poor question and for this see White and Anderson (2001)
Regress changes in income of the poor as a share of changes in total income of country,
and changes in share of income of the poor,
onto a number of regressors that include, change in GDP per capita, change in trade openness dummy,
change government expenditure as share of GDP, change in political rights and civil liberties, and change
in life expectancy.
Why 2 dependent variables? Dependent variable 1 can be affected by outliers represented by large
changes in incomes of the poorest groups when total income for the country has increased. Changes in
the poor’s share of income gets around this issue.
)
1
/(
)
1
(
t
Y
t
Y
p
t
Y
p
t
Y
)
1
/
1
(
)
/
(
t
Y
p
t
Y
t
Y
p
t
Y
30. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
White and Anderson (2001) – (cont…)
Find that variations in the poor’s share of incremental income
(Dependent variable 1) is very large for growth
rates<4%..........some incremental shares are negative and very
large.
Confirms our expectations.
However using dependent variable 2 find that,
31. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
Regression results for Change in Share of Income (poorest 40% and poorest
20% - t-tests in brackets
DQ40
DQ20
Constant -0.001 0.000
(-0.76) (-0.40)
Growth (if improves) -0.056 -0.011
(-2.03) (-1.03)
Change in Political Freedom (if
worsens)
-0.006 -0.002
(-1.97) (-1.53)
Trade Openness -0.001 -0.001
(-0.94) (-1.30)
Change in Urban (more
urbanisation)
0.003 0.002
(2.41) (3.41)
Change in life expectancy (greater
life expectancy)
-0.006 -0.002
(-1.85) (-1.57)
32. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Note:
(1) Positive coefficient means an increase in the explanatory variable will
have a positive impact on the poor’s share of GDP, i.e. improve the poor’s
share of GDP
Find that growth negatively impacts on the poor – only the poorest 40%
though. Implication is there is a trade-off between growth and distribution
which contradicts World Bank thinking.
Less political freedom bad for the poor.
Increased urbanisation good for the poor
33. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Dollar and Kraay (2002, 2004): find a positive relationship between growth and
growth of incomes of the poor.
The Model
The key thing is the coefficient on . This represents the elasticity of income
of the poorest quintile with respect to mean income.
Control for 4 policy interventions that are likely to positively contribute to PPG: (1)
primary educational attainment (2) public spending on health and education, (3)
labour productivity in agriculture relative to rest of economy and (4) formal
democratic institutions.
Find none of these factors impact on PPG in their cross-country survey.
ct
y
34. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor
growth?
That the coefficient on log GDP of the country is
NOT significantly different from 1…..NO evidence
that % change in GDP is different from % change in
GDP of poorest 20%.
They cannot “reject the hypothesis that incomes of the
poor on average rise equiproportionately with average
incomes” (pp. 198), See next slide for Table 5 that
confirms this.
36. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
Figure 4, Dollar and Kraay (2004).
37. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Finds that changes in inequality and changes in income
are not correlated.
(Word of warning given by authors and by others is that cross-
country comparisons are subject to a lot of measurement error and
that country-specific studies are required for a clearer picture –
What the World Bank has done).
Dollar and Kraay (2004), Economic Journal paper in
special edition of linkages between trade, development
and poverty.
38. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Whilst not explicitly looking at income inequality Dollar
and Kraay findings are consistent with headcount
poverty declining more in those countries with more
equitable distributions of income.
Example from Klasen (2003).
Since Dollar and Kraay are looking at proportionate
income changes of the average and the poorest quintile
then clearly if income inequality is lower in a country
then the proportionate increase in income will lead to a
greater reduction in absolute poverty.
39. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
Barro (2000) tests the Kuznets hypothesis again with a panel
of countries.
Regresses growth rate per capita output onto variables that
theoretically are predicted to determine growth, e.g. log of per
capita GDP, rule-of-law index, democracy (or freedom)
index, investment/GDP, years of schooling.
Then includes a gini coefficient index.
40. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
Growth rate is the dependent variable here.
When the gini index is introduced linearly there is no relationship with growth (0.000) – Model 1.
When the gini index is interacted with log(GDP) – a proxy for economic development – then we
see a negative relationship between income inequality and growth (-0.328) but that when
log(GDP) is higher the relationship is actually positive (0.043) – Model 2.
Implication is that at lower levels of log(GDP) income inequality does significantly impact on
growth rates.
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
41. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
Barro also finds evidence that Kuznets curve is alive and
kicking. Income inequality first increases and then
decreases with economic development (log(GDP)).
However log(GDP) is not explaining
the majority of the variation in income
inequality across countries or across
time.
42. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
Summary
Still no consensus.
Some find that changes in income are not correlated with changes in inequality means
that any growth in income does not appear to have any impact on inequality and
impacts positively on absolute poverty, (see Fields, 1989 and 2001).
Dollar and Kraay (2002) find that growth of the country positively effects growth of
income of the poor – implication is that growth is thus crucial for reducing absolute
poverty and the number of absolutely poor.
White and Anderson (2001) find that when dependent variable takes a ‘relative’ form
that growth negatively effects the share the poorest in a country have of GDP.
Barro (2000) finds that income inequality can impact on growth rates of very poor
countries only.
43. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
(V) Policies for pro-poor growth?
Killick (2002) mentions a wish list that would enhance pro-poor growth:
(1) Land reform – NOT land grab.
(2) Improved access by the poor to education and health - public sector, or public-
private partnership?
(3) Micro-credit schemes targeted on the poor – charity or public sector since is too
risky for private sector to invest in!
(4) Adoption of labour intensive techniques in production
(5) Agricultural and rural development – very broad
(6) Government expenditure on education and health - public sector?
(7) Avoidance of macroeconomic crises – external factors that cannot be avoided, e.g.
sustained food price increases caused by emerging economies changing their diet.
(8) Investment in rural infrastructure – public sector, or public-private partnership?
(9) Labour-intensive industrialisation
44. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
World Bank Report, pp.74.
For Agriculture:
– Investments in infrastructure to connect the poor, e.g.
telecommunications, roads, public transport.
– Strengthen property rights notably of women particularly regarding
land
– Create incentive frameworks that do NOT discriminate against those
economic activities the poor are already undertaking
– Improve technology for food-producers so can protect crop. Essential
given urban food demand increases.
– Help poor households reduce and cope with risk which could
encourage greater risk with more high-yielding crops – (Q) Are poor
households risk-averse in gambling when times are good and risk-
taking when times are bad?
45. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
For Non-agricultural poor:
• Designing labour market rules and regulations that “balances workers’
needs with employers’ needs”, (ibid, pp. 75) – is an issue in many Latin
American countries where trade unions are strong, also the case in South
Africa.
• Access to secondary and girls’ education important for poor households
given the growing skill bias in non-agricultural employment – “falling
fertility rates and rising female labor market participation is essential in a
pro-poor growth strategy” (ibid, pp. 75).
• Quality of investment climate (assumed to be determined by macro and
trade environment, as well as degree of labour market regulation)
determine quantity and quality of employment.
• Improved infrastructure for the poor.
46. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-
poor growth?
Factors that affect the success/failure of these World Bank policies
include:
• Initial income and asset inequality – if high then can have negative impact
on pro-poor growth.
• Must re-distribute…but how? Land reform not land grab, transfer payments in the form
of state pensions to the poor.
• Importance of agriculture to the poor. Need to improve the efficiency of
agriculture (e.g. technology, co-operatives, training, access to financial
markets).
• Since agriculture is affected by climactic conditions there needs to be a risk
management structure in place to protect poor farmers but which do
encourage more risk-taking – (Q) Are poor farmers likely to be risk-takers?
• Delivery of services and capacity of institutions to deliver to the poor –
issue of corruption.
47. Growth and Poverty Reduction: Pro-poor growth?
References
Dollar, D., and Kraay, A., (2002), “Growth is Good for the Poor”, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol 7, pp. 195-225.
Fields, G., (1989) “Changes in Poverty and Inequality in Developing Countries”, World Bank Research Observer 4(2), 167-
85.
Fields, G., (2001) Distribution and Development: A New Look at the Developing World, MIT Press.
Kakwani and Pernia (2000) “What is pro-poor growth?”, Asian Development Review, Vol 18(1), 1-16.
OECD 2001 “Rising to the Global Challenge: Partnership for Reducing World Poverty.” Statement by the DAC High Level
Meeting, April 25-26, Paris
Ravallion and Chen (2003) “Measuring Pro-Poor Growth.” Economic Letters Vol 78(1), p3-99.
White and Anderson (2001) “Growth vs Redistribution: Does the pattern of growth matter?.”, Development Policy Review,
Vol 19(3), 167-289.
World Bank, (2005), Pro-Poor Growth in the 1990s Lessons and Insights from 14 Countries.