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Probabilistic Ontology:
                    Representation and Modeling
                           Methodology
                                   Rommel Novaes Carvalho

                                       Dissertation Defense
                        PhD in Systems Engineering and Operations Research
                                     George Mason University
                                           06/28/2011



Monday, June 27, 2011
Agenda
                  Introduction
                        Problem Statement
                        Contributions

                  Representing Uncertainty in Semantic Technologies
                  1st Major Contribution: PR-OWL 2.0
                  2nd Major Contribution: Uncertainty Modeling Process
                  for Semantic Technologies (UMP-ST)
                  Conclusion


                                                                         2

Monday, June 27, 2011
Introduction


                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   3

Monday, June 27, 2011
Summary of Problems

             1st major problem - Mapping/Types
                        Probabilistic web ontology language (PR-OWL) does not have a well-
                        defined and complete integration between the deterministic and
                        probabilistic parts of an ontology

             2nd major problem - Methodology
                        Probabilistic languages for semantic technologies like PR-OWL lack a
                        methodology for guiding the construction of models




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   4

Monday, June 27, 2011
Summary of Contributions

             For the 1st problem - Mapping/Types
                  Extended probabilistic web ontology language (PR-OWL)
                        Led the development of a proof of concept tool in collaboration with
                        UnB [105]*

             For the 2nd problem - Methodology
                  Developed a methodology for modeling probabilistic
                  ontologies (POs)
                        Created two use cases using the proposed methodology


*These numbers refer to the references in my dissertation


                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   5

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   6

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?




 Public Notices - Data




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   6

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?

                          Information Gathering




 Public Notices - Data




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   6

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?

                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   6

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?
                                                                                                > 1 Bi info
                                                                                                > 5 Tri US$



                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion    6

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?
                                                                                                > 1 Bi info
                                                                                                > 5 Tri US$



                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion    6

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?
                                                                                                > 1 Bi info
                                                                                                > 5 Tri US$



                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion    6

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?

                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data                                                                  Design - UnBBayes




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   6

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?

                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data                                                                   Design - UnBBayes




                                                                 Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   6

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?

                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data                                                                   Design - UnBBayes




                        Report for Decision Makers               Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   6

Monday, June 27, 2011
What’s the problem?

                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data                                                                   Design - UnBBayes




                        Report for Decision Makers               Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   6

Monday, June 27, 2011
Semantic Web
                  Semantic Web (SW) is a web of data that can be
                  processed by machines [45]
                        E.g., allow machines to differentiate between 3 pounds (price of
                        product) and 3 pounds (weight of product)

                  Change focus from data driven to knowledge driven
                  The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) states that
                  ontologies provide the cement for building the SW [46]
                        Ontology: Taken from Philosophy, where it means a systematic
                        explanation of being



                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   7

Monday, June 27, 2011
Ontology
             An ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that
             expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes:
                        Types of entities that exist in the domain;
                        Properties of those entities;
                        Relationships among entities;
                        Processes and events that happen with those entities;
             where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that
             can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2].
             The Web Ontology Language (OWL)
                        Developed by the W3C
                        As a language to represent ontologies for the SW
                        Accepted as a W3C recommendation in 2004



                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion       8

Monday, June 27, 2011
Ontology
             An ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that
             expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes:
                        Types of entities that exist in the domain;   Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ...

                        Properties of those entities;
                        Relationships among entities;
                        Processes and events that happen with those entities;
             where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that
             can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2].
             The Web Ontology Language (OWL)
                        Developed by the W3C
                        As a language to represent ontologies for the SW
                        Accepted as a W3C recommendation in 2004



                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion       8

Monday, June 27, 2011
Ontology
             An ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that
             expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes:
                        Types of entities that exist in the domain;   Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ...

                        Properties of those entities;   firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ...

                        Relationships among entities;
                        Processes and events that happen with those entities;
             where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that
             can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2].
             The Web Ontology Language (OWL)
                        Developed by the W3C
                        As a language to represent ontologies for the SW
                        Accepted as a W3C recommendation in 2004



                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion       8

Monday, June 27, 2011
Ontology
             An ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that
             expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes:
                        Types of entities that exist in the domain;   Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ...

                        Properties of those entities;   firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ...

                        Relationships among entities;    motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ...

                        Processes and events that happen with those entities;
             where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that
             can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2].
             The Web Ontology Language (OWL)
                        Developed by the W3C
                        As a language to represent ontologies for the SW
                        Accepted as a W3C recommendation in 2004



                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion       8

Monday, June 27, 2011
Ontology
             An ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that
             expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes:
                        Types of entities that exist in the domain;   Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ...

                        Properties of those entities;   firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ...

                        Relationships among entities;    motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ...
                                                                                analyzing if requirements
                        Processes and events that happen with those entities;   are met,
                                                                                choosing best proposal, ...
             where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that
             can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2].
             The Web Ontology Language (OWL)
                        Developed by the W3C
                        As a language to represent ontologies for the SW
                        Accepted as a W3C recommendation in 2004



                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion       8

Monday, June 27, 2011
Ontology in OWL




                                          9

Monday, June 27, 2011
Uncertainty in the SW
                  The community recognizes the need to represent
                  and reason with uncertainty
                  W3C created the URW3-XG in 2007
                     Concluded that standardized representations
                     were needed [50]
                  Probabilistic Web Ontology Language (PR-OWL)
                  is a candidate language to represent probabilistic
                  ontologies
                     Based on Multi-Entity Bayesian Network
                     (MEBN) logic

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   10

Monday, June 27, 2011
Probabilistic Ontology
             A probabilistic ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation
             that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes:
                        Types of entities that exist in the domain;      Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ...

                        Properties of those entities;    firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ...

                        Relationships among entities;     motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ...
                                                                                    analyzing if requirements
                        Processes and events that happen with those entities;       are met,
                                                                                    choosing better proposal, ...
                        Statistical regularities that characterize the domain;
                        Inconclusive, ambiguous, incomplete, unreliable, and dissonant knowledge related to entities
                        of the domain;
                        Uncertainty about all the above forms of knowledge;
             where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that
             can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2].



                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion               11

Monday, June 27, 2011
Probabilistic Ontology
             A probabilistic ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation
             that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes:
                        Types of entities that exist in the domain;      Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ...

                        Properties of those entities;    firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ...

                        Relationships among entities;     motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ...
                                                                                    analyzing if requirements
                        Processes and events that happen with those entities;       are met,
                                                                                    choosing better proposal, ...
                        Statistical regularities that characterize the domain;
                        Inconclusive, ambiguous, incomplete, unreliable, and dissonant knowledge related to entities
                        of the domain;
                        Uncertainty about all the above forms of knowledge;
             where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that
             can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2].



                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion               11

Monday, June 27, 2011
Probabilistic Ontology
             A probabilistic ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation
             that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes:
                        Types of entities that exist in the domain;      Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ...

                        Properties of those entities;    firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ...

                        Relationships among entities;     motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ...
                                                                                    analyzing if requirements
                        Processes and events that happen with those entities;       are met,
                                                                                    choosing better proposal, ...
                        Statistical regularities that characterize the domain;
                        Inconclusive, ambiguous, incomplete, unreliable, and dissonant knowledge related to entities
                        of the domain;
                        Uncertainty about all the above forms of knowledge;
             where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that
             can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2].



                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion               11

Monday, June 27, 2011
Probabilistic Ontology
             A probabilistic ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation
             that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes:
                        Types of entities that exist in the domain;      Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ...

                        Properties of those entities;    firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ...

                        Relationships among entities;     motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ...
                                                                                    analyzing if requirements
                        Processes and events that happen with those entities;       are met,
                                                                                    choosing better proposal, ...
                        Statistical regularities that characterize the domain;
                        Inconclusive, ambiguous, incomplete, unreliable, and dissonant knowledge related to entities
                        of the domain;                                                    P(isFrontFor|
                                                                                  valueOfProcurement = >1M,
                        Uncertainty about all the above forms of knowledge;       annualIncome = <10k) = 90%

             where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that
             can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2].



                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion               11

Monday, June 27, 2011
Probabilistic Ontology in PR-OWL 1.0




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   12

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types




                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types



                                                   ?

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types



                                                   ?

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types



                                                   ?

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   13

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?


                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data                                                                   Design - UnBBayes




                        Report for Decision Makers               Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   14

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?


                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data                                                                   Design - UnBBayes




                        Report for Decision Makers               Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   14

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?


                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information


                                                                     Logic
                                                                       +
                                                                   Uncertainty
 Public Notices - Data                                                                   Design - UnBBayes




                        Report for Decision Makers               Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   14

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?


                          Information Gathering                    DB - Information




                                                                                              ?
                                                                     Logic
                                                                       +
                                                                   Uncertainty
 Public Notices - Data                                                                   Design - UnBBayes




                        Report for Decision Makers               Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   14

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?
         My objective is to define and
        represent a context model for
        the interoperability of Sensor
       Networks. As my background is
          not computer science, it's
            being a little hard to
                     Information Gathering
         understand how to put in                                  DB - Information




                                                                                              ?
           practice a probabilistic
                  ontology.
         PhD student, Wageningen University, The Netherlands         Logic
                                                                       +
                                                                   Uncertainty
 Public Notices - Data                                                                   Design - UnBBayes




                          Report for Decision Makers             Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   14

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?
                            This seems a very promising
         My objective is to define and                         tool, but we need to learn how
        represent a context model for                           to best make use of it. When
        the interoperability of Sensor                              we try to design using
       Networks. As my background is                            UnBBayes, the questions we
          not computer science, it's                           are trying to answer is how do
            being a little hard to                              you identify which entities
                     Information Gathering
         understand how to put in                                       DB - Information
                                                                are relevant to the problem




                                                                                                               ?
           practice a probabilistic                             and how translate them as
                  ontology.                                      variables Logic system.
                                                                            in your
         PhD student, Wageningen University, The Netherlands     Fusion Engineer, EADS Innovation Works, UK

                                                                             +
                                                                         Uncertainty
 Public Notices - Data                                                                                    Design - UnBBayes




                          Report for Decision Makers                  Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                   14

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?
                            This seems a very promising
         My objective is to define and                                           tool, but we need to learn how
        represent a context model for                                             to best make use of it. When
        the interoperability of Sensor                                                we try to design using
       Networks. As my background is                                              UnBBayes, the questions we
          not computer science, it's                                             are trying to answer is how do
            being a little hard to                                                you identify which entities
                     Information Gathering
         understand how to put in                                                         DB - Information
                                                                                  are relevant to the problem




                                                                                                                                 ?
           practice a probabilistic                                               and how translate them as
                  ontology.                                                        variables Logic system.
                                                                                              in your
         PhD student, Wageningen University, The Netherlands                       Fusion Engineer, EADS Innovation Works, UK

                  I am evaluating PR-OWL as a                                                  +
                   knowledge representation as                                             Uncertainty
                   well as reasoning formalism.
 Public Notices I'd like to explore if/how it can
                - Data                                                                                                      Design - UnBBayes
                     be used for applications
                     using resource devices.
                            PhD student, University of Texas at Arlington, USA




                          Report for Decision Makers                                    Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                     14

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?
                            This seems a very promising
         My objective is to define and                                           tool, but we need to learn how
        represent a context model for                                             to best make use of it. When
        the interoperability of Sensor                                                we try to design using
       Networks. As my background is                                              UnBBayes, the questions we
          not computer science, it's                                             are trying to answer is how do
            being a little hard to                                                you identify which entities
                     Information Gathering
         understand how to put in                                                         DB - Information
                                                                                  are relevant to the problem




                                                                                                                                     ?
           practice a probabilistic                                               and how translate them as
                  ontology.                                                        variables Logic system.
                                                                                              in your
         PhD student, Wageningen University, The Netherlands                       Fusion Engineer, EADS Innovation Works, UK

                  I am evaluating PR-OWL as a                                                  +
                   knowledge representation as                                             Uncertainty these variables?
                                                                                               Why use
                   well as reasoning formalism.                                                       Why they are connected in
 Public Notices I'd like to explore if/how it can
                - Data                                                                                such a way? How -do you
                                                                                                                  Design UnBBayes
                     be used for applications                                                           choose what type of
                     using resource devices.                                                                variable it is?
                                                                                                         Fusion Engineer, EADS Innovation Works, UK
                            PhD student, University of Texas at Arlington, USA




                          Report for Decision Makers                                    Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                              14

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?
                            This seems a very promising
       My objective is to define and                              tool, but we need to learn how
      represent a context model for                                to best make use of it. When
       the interoperability of Sensor                                  we try to design using
    Networks.One thing which might be beyond the scope of the questions we
                      As my background is                          UnBBayes, this tutorial is a
         not computer science, it'sof Modeling with MEBN". to answer is how do
                    write-up about "Art                          are trying Both narration and
             being a little hard to
                        the resultant MEBN help in understanding the problem, but
                                                                   you identify which entities
                       how one reach from a problem descriptionInformation at
                           Information Gathering
        understand how to put in                                           DB - to the problem
                                                                   are relevantto a MEBN




                                                                                                                       ?
          practice a probabilistic clear. ... So when it how translate them as
                       times is not very                           and comes to MEBN, how
                    one decides about the context nodes, input nodes and system.
                      ontology.                                     variables Logic resident
                                                                               in your
      PhD student, Wageningen University, The Netherlands
                           nodes? Most of the times it mightFusion Engineer, EADS Innovationbut UK
                                                                      be pretty obvious Works,
                       I am evaluating PR-OWL as why certain nodes + modeled
                      sometimes it is not very cleara                             are
                        knowledge representation when they could also be modeled variables?
                    as input nodes in a fragmentas                        Uncertainty these
                                                                                  Why use
                      as context nodes, etc. Should we follow an object-oriented connected in
                        well as reasoning formalism.                              Why they are
                     I'd like to when identifying important entities or should we How -do you
 Public Notices approach explore if/how it can
                     - Data                                                       such a way?         Design UnBBayes
                      think used for applications logic, etc.? As a modeler what
                          be in terms of predicate                                   choose what type of
                          using resource devices.
                                                drives our thinking process?                variable it is?
                                                                                   Fusion Engineer, EADS Innovation Works, UK
                         PhD student, University of Texas at Arlington, USA
                                                  Professor, Institute of Business Administration, Pakistan




                        Report for Decision Makers                                             Inference - Knowledge

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                        14

Monday, June 27, 2011
2nd Problem - Methodology
              There is now substantial literature about
                    what PR-OWL is [2, 4, 5],
                    how to implement it [6-9], and
                    where it can be used [10-15]
              There is an emerging literature on ontology engineering [4, 28]
              But, little has been written about
                    how to model a probabilistic ontology
              This lack of methodology is not only associated with PR-OWL
                    OntoBayes [30], BayesOWL [31], P-SHIF(D) and P-SHOIN(D) [32],
                    Markov Logic Network [33], Bayesian Logic [63], and Probabilistic
                    Relational Models [64], amongst others, do not have a methodology for
                    creating models


                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   15

Monday, June 27, 2011
Contributions
             For the 1st problem - Mapping/Types
                  Extended probabilistic web ontology language (PR-OWL) in
                  order to:
                        Provide a mapping between deterministic knowledge and probabilistic
                        knowledge
                        Allow reuse of existing types provided by OWL
                  Led the development of a proof of concept tool in
                  collaboration with UnB [105]
             For the 2nd problem - Methodology
                  Developed a methodology for modeling probabilistic
                  ontologies (POs)
                        Created two use cases using the proposed methodology

                   Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   16

Monday, June 27, 2011
Representing Uncertainty
           in Semantic Technologies


               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 17

Monday, June 27, 2011
Uncertainty in the SW
                  Deterministic SW will either consider a
                  statement to be true, false, or unknown
                        Shortcoming: no built-in support for uncertainty
                  In open world partial (not complete) or
                  approximate (not exact) information is more the
                  rule than the exception




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 18

Monday, June 27, 2011
Uncertainty in the SW
                  Deterministic SW will either consider a
                  statement to be true, false, or unknown
                        Shortcoming: no built-in support for uncertainty
                  In open world partial (not complete) or
                  approximate (not exact) information is more the
                  rule than the exception
   ∀x,y,z ((Mother(x,y) ∧ Mother(z,y))         Sibling(x,z))
   ∀x,y (Sibling(x,y)          Related(x,y))
   ∀y∃x,z,r Committee(x,y)
          ∧ Participant(z,y) ∧ Responsible(r,z)
          ∧ Related(x,r)    ViolationOfLaw(y)



               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 18

Monday, June 27, 2011
Uncertainty in the SW
                  Deterministic SW will either consider a
                  statement to be true, false, or unknown
                        Shortcoming: no built-in support for uncertainty
                  In open world partial (not complete) or
                  approximate (not exact) information is more the
                  rule than the exception      Committee(John,procurement34)
                                                                 Participant(ITBusiness,procurement34)
   ∀x,y,z ((Mother(x,y) ∧ Mother(z,y))         Sibling(x,z))     Responsible(Richard,ITBusiness)

   ∀x,y (Sibling(x,y)          Related(x,y))
   ∀y∃x,z,r Committee(x,y)                                             Mother(John,Jane)
          ∧ Participant(z,y) ∧ Responsible(r,z)                        Mother(Richard,Jane)
          ∧ Related(x,r)    ViolationOfLaw(y)



               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 18

Monday, June 27, 2011
Uncertainty in the SW
                  Deterministic SW will either consider a
                  statement to be true, false, or unknown
                        Shortcoming: no built-in support for uncertainty
                  In open world partial (not complete) or
                  approximate (not exact) information is more the
                  rule than the exception      Committee(John,procurement34)
                                                                 Participant(ITBusiness,procurement34)




                                                                ?
   ∀x,y,z ((Mother(x,y) ∧ Mother(z,y))         Sibling(x,z))     Responsible(Richard,ITBusiness)

   ∀x,y (Sibling(x,y)          Related(x,y))
                                                                       LivesAt(John,Address1)
   ∀y∃x,z,r Committee(x,y)                                             LivesAt(Richard,Address1)
          ∧ Participant(z,y) ∧ Responsible(r,z)                        LastName(John,White)
                                                                       LastName(Richard,White)
          ∧ Related(x,r)    ViolationOfLaw(y)



               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 18

Monday, June 27, 2011
Uncertainty in the SW

                  The community recognizes the need to represent
                  and reason with uncertainty
                  W3C created the URW3-XG in 2007
                    Concluded that standardized representations
                    were needed [50]
                  PR-OWL is a candidate language to represent
                  probabilistic ontologies
                    Based on MEBN logic


               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 19

Monday, June 27, 2011
MEBN




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 20

Monday, June 27, 2011
MEBN




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 20

Monday, June 27, 2011
Why MEBN?




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 21

Monday, June 27, 2011
Why MEBN?




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 21

Monday, June 27, 2011
Why MEBN?




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 21

Monday, June 27, 2011
Why MEBN?




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 21

Monday, June 27, 2011
Why MEBN?




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 21

Monday, June 27, 2011
PR-OWL 1.0




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 22

Monday, June 27, 2011
PR-OWL 1.0




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 22

Monday, June 27, 2011
UnBBayes - MEBN / PR-OWL 1.0




               Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 23

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Major Contribution
                                    PR-OWL 2.0


                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   24

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   25

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types



                                                    ?

                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   25

Monday, June 27, 2011
1st Problem - Mapping/Types



                                                    ?

                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   25

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL




                                  OWL




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL




                                  OWL




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL




                                  OWL

                                                                                    hasEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion    26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL




                                  OWL

                                                                                    hasEducationLevel




                                                                           Person




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion    26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL




                                  OWL

                                                                                    hasEducationLevel




                                                                           Person                       EducationLevel
                                                                                    hasEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                     26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL




                                  OWL

                                                                                    hasEducationLevel




                                                                           Person                       EducationLevel
                                                                                    hasEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                     26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                    hasEducationLevel_RV




                                  OWL

                                                                                      hasEducationLevel




                                                                           Person                          EducationLevel
                                                                                      hasEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                        26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                            hasEducationLevel_RV




                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person




                                  OWL

                                                                                              hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                              EducationLevel
                                                                                              hasEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV




                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person




                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person




                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                  26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV




                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person




                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person




                                                                                                hasEducationLevel      aspiresEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                  26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV




                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person




                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person




                                                                                                hasEducationLevel      aspiresEducationLevel

                                                                                                                       domain



                                                                               Person                                EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                  26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV




                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person




                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person




                                                                                                hasEducationLevel       aspiresEducationLevel

                                                                                                                        domain
                                                                                                                                 range

                                                                               Person                                 EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel



                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                   26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV




                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person




                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person




                                                                               Person
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                                                hasEducationLevel
                                                                                                                    ?   aspiresEducationLevel

                                                                                                                        domain
                                                                                                                                 range

                                                                                                                      EducationLevel




                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                   26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV




                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person




                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person




                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                 EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel



                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                   26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV



                                                                                                          hasArgument


                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person                      hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor




                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person




                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                    EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel



                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                      26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV

                                                                                                                                          “2”^^int

                                                                                                          hasArgument
                                                                                                                              hasArgNumber

                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person                      hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor




                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person




                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                    EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel



                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                      26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV

                                                                                                                                          “2”^^int

                                                                                                          hasArgument
                                                                                                                              hasArgNumber

                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person                      hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor

                                                                                                              hasArgTerm

                                                                                                        _MFrag.advisor

                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person




                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                    EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel



                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                      26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV

                                                                                                                                            “2”^^int

                                                                                                          hasArgument
                                                                                                                                hasArgNumber

                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person                      hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor

                                                                                                              hasArgTerm

                                                                                                        _MFrag.advisor

                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person
                                                                                                                isSubsBy

                                                                                                              Person



                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                      EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel



                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                        26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV

                                                                                                                                            “2”^^int

                                                                                                          hasArgument
                                                                                                                                hasArgNumber

                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person                      hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor

                                                                                                              hasArgTerm

                                                                                                        _MFrag.advisor       hasEducationLevelAdvisor

                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person
                                                                                                                isSubsBy            range
                                                                                                                                 domain
                                                                                                              Person



                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                      EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel



                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                        26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV

                                                                                                                                            “2”^^int




                                                                                                    ?
                                                                                                          hasArgument
                                                                                                                                hasArgNumber

                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person                      hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor

                                                                                                              hasArgTerm

                                                                                                        _MFrag.advisor       hasEducationLevelAdvisor

                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person
                                                                                                                isSubsBy            range
                                                                                                                                 domain
                                                                                                              Person



                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                      EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel



                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                        26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV

                                                                                                                                            “2”^^int

                                                                                                          hasArgument
                                                                                                                                hasArgNumber

                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person                      hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor

                                                                                                              hasArgTerm          isObjectIn
                                                                                         isSubjectIn
                                                                                                        _MFrag.advisor       hasEducationLevelAdvisor

                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person
                                                                                                                isSubsBy            range
                                                                                                                                 domain
                                                                                                              Person



                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                      EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel



                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                        26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Mapping Schema
                               PR-OWL


                                                                                              hasEducationLevel_RV




                                                                     hasEducationLevel_RV_person


                                                                                         isSubjectIn



                                  OWL                                         _MFrag.person




                                                                                                hasEducationLevel




                                                                               Person                                 EducationLevel
                                                                                                hasEducationLevel



                                                                                              aspiresEducationLevel




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                                   26

Monday, June 27, 2011
Using Existing Types
*reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   27

Monday, June 27, 2011
Using Existing Types
*reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   27

Monday, June 27, 2011
Using Existing Types
*reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version




         Boolean




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   27

Monday, June 27, 2011
Using Existing Types
*reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version




         Boolean

          Nominal



                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   27

Monday, June 27, 2011
Using Existing Types
*reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version




         Boolean

          Nominal
                               Class


                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   27

Monday, June 27, 2011
Using Existing Types
*reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version




         Boolean

          Nominal
                               Class        X
                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   27

Monday, June 27, 2011
Using Existing Types
*reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version




         Boolean
                                                     DataType
          Nominal
                               Class        X
                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   27

Monday, June 27, 2011
Using Existing Types
*reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version




                                  Entity
         Boolean
                                                     DataType
          Nominal
                               Class        X
                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   27

Monday, June 27, 2011
PR-OWL 2.0 - Proof of Concept




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   28

Monday, June 27, 2011
PR-OWL 2.0 - Proof of Concept




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   29

Monday, June 27, 2011
PR-OWL 2.0 - Proof of Concept




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   30

Monday, June 27, 2011
PR-OWL 2.0 - Proof of Concept




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   31

Monday, June 27, 2011
PR-OWL 2.0 - Proof of Concept




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   32

Monday, June 27, 2011
2nd Major Contribution
   Uncertainty Modeling Process
    for Semantic Technologies
            (UMP-ST)

                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   33

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?


                           Information Gathering                     DB - Information




 Public Notices - Data                                                                    Design - UnBBayes




                        Report for Decision Makers                Inference - Knowledge

                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   34

Monday, June 27, 2011
How to build Probabilistic Ontologies?


                           Information Gathering                     DB - Information




                                                                                               ?
                                                                      Logic
                                                                        +
                                                                    Uncertainty
 Public Notices - Data                                                                    Design - UnBBayes




                        Report for Decision Makers                Inference - Knowledge

                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   34

Monday, June 27, 2011
2nd Problem - Methodology
          There is now substantial literature about
              what PR-OWL is [2, 4, 5],
              how to implement it [6-9], and
              where it can be used [10-15]
          There is an emerging literature on ontology engineering [4, 28]
          But, little has been written about
              how to model a probabilistic ontology
          This lack of methodology is not only associated with PR-OWL
              OntoBayes [30], BayesOWL [31], P-SHIF(D) and P-SHOIN(D) [32],
              Markov Logic Network [33], Bayesian Logic [63], and Probabilistic
              Relation Models [64], amongst others, do not have a methodology for
              creating models

                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   35

Monday, June 27, 2011
Methodology




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   36

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   37

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   37

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   37

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud
                                                                Goal: Find suspicious procurements
                                                                  Query: Is there any relation between the committee and
                                                                  the enterprises that participated in the procurement?
                                                                            Evidence: They are siblings
                                                                                        They live at the same address




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion              37

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud
                                                                Goal: Find suspicious procurements
                                                                  Query: Is there any relation between the committee and
                                                                  the enterprises that participated in the procurement?
                                                                            Evidence: They are siblings
                                                                                        They live at the same address
                                                                                             Person
                                                                                             Procurement
                                                                                             Enterprise
                                                                                             ownerOf
                                                                                             participatesIn
                                                                                             livesAt




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion              37

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud
                                                                Goal: Find suspicious procurements
                                                                  Query: Is there any relation between the committee and
                                                                  the enterprises that participated in the procurement?
                                                                            Evidence: They are siblings
                                                                                        They live at the same address
                                                                                             Person
                                                                                             Procurement
                                                                                             Enterprise
                                                                                             ownerOf
                                                                                             participatesIn
                                                                                             livesAt

                                                                                            If a member of the committee
                                                                                             lives at the same address as a
                                                                                          person responsible for a bidder in
                                                                                          the procurement, a relationship is
                                                                                           more likely to exist between the
                                                                                           committee and the enterprises,
                                                                                               which lowers competition.




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion              37

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud
                                                                Goal: Find suspicious procurements
                                                                  Query: Is there any relation between the committee and
                                                                  the enterprises that participated in the procurement?
                                                                            Evidence: They are siblings
                                                                                        They live at the same address
                                                                                             Person
                                                                                             Procurement
                                                                                             Enterprise
                                                                                             ownerOf
                                                                                             participatesIn
                                                                                             livesAt

                                                                                            If a member of the committee
                                                                                             lives at the same address as a
                                                                                          person responsible for a bidder in
                                                                                          the procurement, a relationship is
                                                                                           more likely to exist between the
                                                                                           committee and the enterprises,
                                                                                               which lowers competition.




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion              37

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud
                                                                Goal: Find suspicious procurements
                                                                  Query: Is there any relation between the committee and
                                                                  the enterprises that participated in the procurement?
                                                                            Evidence: They are siblings
                                                                                        They live at the same address
                                                                                             Person
                                                                                             Procurement
                                                                                             Enterprise
                                                                                             ownerOf
                                                                                             participatesIn
                                                                                             livesAt

                                                                                            If a member of the committee
                                                                                             lives at the same address as a
                                                                                          person responsible for a bidder in
                                                                                          the procurement, a relationship is
                                                                                           more likely to exist between the
                                                                                           committee and the enterprises,
                                                                                               which lowers competition.




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion              37

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud
                                                                Goal: Find suspicious procurements
                                                                  Query: Is there any relation between the committee and
                                                                  the enterprises that participated in the procurement?
                                                                            Evidence: They are siblings
                                                                                        They live at the same address
                                                                                             Person
                                                                                             Procurement
                                                                                             Enterprise
                                                                                             ownerOf
                                                                                             participatesIn
                                                                                             livesAt

                                                                                            If a member of the committee
                                                                                             lives at the same address as a
                                                                                          person responsible for a bidder in
                                                                                          the procurement, a relationship is
                                                                                           more likely to exist between the
                                                                                           committee and the enterprises,
                                                                                               which lowers competition.




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion              37

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud
                                                                Goal: Find suspicious procurements
                                                                  Query: Is there any relation between the committee and
                                                                  the enterprises that participated in the procurement?
                                                                            Evidence: They are siblings
                                                                                        They live at the same address
                                                                                             Person
                                                                                             Procurement
                                                                                             Enterprise
                                                                                             ownerOf
                                                                                             participatesIn
                                                                                             livesAt

                                                                                            If a member of the committee
                                                                                             lives at the same address as a
                                                                                          person responsible for a bidder in
                                                                                          the procurement, a relationship is
                                                                                           more likely to exist between the
                                                                                           committee and the enterprises,
                                                                                               which lowers competition.




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion              37

Monday, June 27, 2011
Evaluation - Procurement Fraud
          Case-based evaluation (integration test / scenarios)
 Scenario                Hypothesis (H)             Evidence (E)           Expected Result                     Result
                    (a) isSuspiciousProcurement                             (a) Low probability that      (a) P(H = true | E) =
                            (procurement)              ...does not               P(H = true | E)                 2.35%
         1                                               support
                        (b) isSuspiciousCommittee     hypothesis...         (b) Low probability that      (b) P(H = true | E) =
                               (procurement)                                     P(H = true | E)                 2.33%

                    (a) isSuspiciousProcurement     ...does and does                                      (a) P(H = true | E) =
                            (procurement)               not support     (a) 10% < P(H = true | E) < 50%          20.82%
         2                                              hypothesis...
                        (b) isSuspiciousCommittee       ...conflicting   (b) 10% < P(H = true | E) < 50%   (b) P(H = true | E) =
                               (procurement)           information...                                            28.95%

                    (a) isSuspiciousProcurement                                                           (a) P(H = true | E) =
                            (procurement)                                  (a) P(H = true | E) > 50%             60.08%
                                                       ...support
         3                                            hypothesis...
                        (b) isSuspiciousCommittee                       (b) 10% < P(H = true | E) < 50%   (b) P(H = true | E) =
                               (procurement)                                                                     28.95%



                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion                      38

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - MDA



                                                GO FASTER ON THIS
                                                SLIDE! JUST SAY THAT I
                                                USED THE SAME
                                                METHODOLOGY ON A
                                                DIFFERENT DOMAIN.




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   39

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - MDA



                                                GO FASTER ON THIS
                                                SLIDE! JUST SAY THAT I
                                                USED THE SAME
                                                METHODOLOGY ON A
                                                DIFFERENT DOMAIN.




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   39

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - MDA



                                                GO FASTER ON THIS
                                                SLIDE! JUST SAY THAT I
                                                USED THE SAME
                                                METHODOLOGY ON A
                                                DIFFERENT DOMAIN.




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion   39

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - MDA
                                                                Goal: Identify whether a ship is a ship of interest
                                                                  Query: Does the ship have a terrorist crew member?
                                                                           Evidence: Crew member related to any terrorist;
                                                                                      Crew member associated with terrorist
                                                                                      organization




                                                GO FASTER ON THIS
                                                SLIDE! JUST SAY THAT I
                                                USED THE SAME
                                                METHODOLOGY ON A
                                                DIFFERENT DOMAIN.




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion               39

Monday, June 27, 2011
Modeling Cycle - MDA
                                                                Goal: Identify whether a ship is a ship of interest
                                                                  Query: Does the ship have a terrorist crew member?
                                                                           Evidence: Crew member related to any terrorist;
                                                                                      Crew member associated with terrorist
                                                                                      organization

                                                                                               Ship
                                                                                               Person
                                                                                               Organization
                                                                                               isTerroristPerson
                                                GO FASTER ON THIS                              hasCrewMember
                                                SLIDE! JUST SAY THAT I                         isRelatedTo
                                                USED THE SAME
                                                METHODOLOGY ON A
                                                DIFFERENT DOMAIN.




                    Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion               39

Monday, June 27, 2011
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology
Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology

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Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology

  • 1. Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology Rommel Novaes Carvalho Dissertation Defense PhD in Systems Engineering and Operations Research George Mason University 06/28/2011 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 2. Agenda Introduction Problem Statement Contributions Representing Uncertainty in Semantic Technologies 1st Major Contribution: PR-OWL 2.0 2nd Major Contribution: Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technologies (UMP-ST) Conclusion 2 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 3. Introduction Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 3 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 4. Summary of Problems 1st major problem - Mapping/Types Probabilistic web ontology language (PR-OWL) does not have a well- defined and complete integration between the deterministic and probabilistic parts of an ontology 2nd major problem - Methodology Probabilistic languages for semantic technologies like PR-OWL lack a methodology for guiding the construction of models Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 4 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 5. Summary of Contributions For the 1st problem - Mapping/Types Extended probabilistic web ontology language (PR-OWL) Led the development of a proof of concept tool in collaboration with UnB [105]* For the 2nd problem - Methodology Developed a methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies (POs) Created two use cases using the proposed methodology *These numbers refer to the references in my dissertation Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 5 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 6. What’s the problem? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 7. What’s the problem? Public Notices - Data Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 8. What’s the problem? Information Gathering Public Notices - Data Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 9. What’s the problem? Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 10. What’s the problem? > 1 Bi info > 5 Tri US$ Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 11. What’s the problem? > 1 Bi info > 5 Tri US$ Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 12. What’s the problem? > 1 Bi info > 5 Tri US$ Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 13. What’s the problem? Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 14. What’s the problem? Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 15. What’s the problem? Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 16. What’s the problem? Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 6 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 17. Semantic Web Semantic Web (SW) is a web of data that can be processed by machines [45] E.g., allow machines to differentiate between 3 pounds (price of product) and 3 pounds (weight of product) Change focus from data driven to knowledge driven The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) states that ontologies provide the cement for building the SW [46] Ontology: Taken from Philosophy, where it means a systematic explanation of being Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 7 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 18. Ontology An ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes: Types of entities that exist in the domain; Properties of those entities; Relationships among entities; Processes and events that happen with those entities; where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2]. The Web Ontology Language (OWL) Developed by the W3C As a language to represent ontologies for the SW Accepted as a W3C recommendation in 2004 Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 8 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 19. Ontology An ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes: Types of entities that exist in the domain; Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ... Properties of those entities; Relationships among entities; Processes and events that happen with those entities; where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2]. The Web Ontology Language (OWL) Developed by the W3C As a language to represent ontologies for the SW Accepted as a W3C recommendation in 2004 Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 8 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 20. Ontology An ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes: Types of entities that exist in the domain; Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ... Properties of those entities; firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ... Relationships among entities; Processes and events that happen with those entities; where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2]. The Web Ontology Language (OWL) Developed by the W3C As a language to represent ontologies for the SW Accepted as a W3C recommendation in 2004 Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 8 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 21. Ontology An ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes: Types of entities that exist in the domain; Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ... Properties of those entities; firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ... Relationships among entities; motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ... Processes and events that happen with those entities; where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2]. The Web Ontology Language (OWL) Developed by the W3C As a language to represent ontologies for the SW Accepted as a W3C recommendation in 2004 Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 8 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 22. Ontology An ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes: Types of entities that exist in the domain; Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ... Properties of those entities; firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ... Relationships among entities; motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ... analyzing if requirements Processes and events that happen with those entities; are met, choosing best proposal, ... where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2]. The Web Ontology Language (OWL) Developed by the W3C As a language to represent ontologies for the SW Accepted as a W3C recommendation in 2004 Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 8 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 23. Ontology in OWL 9 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 24. Uncertainty in the SW The community recognizes the need to represent and reason with uncertainty W3C created the URW3-XG in 2007 Concluded that standardized representations were needed [50] Probabilistic Web Ontology Language (PR-OWL) is a candidate language to represent probabilistic ontologies Based on Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN) logic Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 10 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 25. Probabilistic Ontology A probabilistic ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes: Types of entities that exist in the domain; Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ... Properties of those entities; firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ... Relationships among entities; motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ... analyzing if requirements Processes and events that happen with those entities; are met, choosing better proposal, ... Statistical regularities that characterize the domain; Inconclusive, ambiguous, incomplete, unreliable, and dissonant knowledge related to entities of the domain; Uncertainty about all the above forms of knowledge; where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2]. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 11 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 26. Probabilistic Ontology A probabilistic ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes: Types of entities that exist in the domain; Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ... Properties of those entities; firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ... Relationships among entities; motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ... analyzing if requirements Processes and events that happen with those entities; are met, choosing better proposal, ... Statistical regularities that characterize the domain; Inconclusive, ambiguous, incomplete, unreliable, and dissonant knowledge related to entities of the domain; Uncertainty about all the above forms of knowledge; where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2]. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 11 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 27. Probabilistic Ontology A probabilistic ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes: Types of entities that exist in the domain; Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ... Properties of those entities; firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ... Relationships among entities; motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ... analyzing if requirements Processes and events that happen with those entities; are met, choosing better proposal, ... Statistical regularities that characterize the domain; Inconclusive, ambiguous, incomplete, unreliable, and dissonant knowledge related to entities of the domain; Uncertainty about all the above forms of knowledge; where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2]. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 11 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 28. Probabilistic Ontology A probabilistic ontology is an explicit, formal knowledge representation that expresses knowledge about a domain of application. This includes: Types of entities that exist in the domain; Person, Procurement, Enterprise, ... Properties of those entities; firstName, lastName, procurementNumber, ... Relationships among entities; motherOf, ownerOf, isFrontFor ... analyzing if requirements Processes and events that happen with those entities; are met, choosing better proposal, ... Statistical regularities that characterize the domain; Inconclusive, ambiguous, incomplete, unreliable, and dissonant knowledge related to entities of the domain; P(isFrontFor| valueOfProcurement = >1M, Uncertainty about all the above forms of knowledge; annualIncome = <10k) = 90% where the term entity refers to any concept (real or fictitious, concrete or abstract) that can be described and reasoned about within the domain of application [2]. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 11 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 29. Probabilistic Ontology in PR-OWL 1.0 Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 12 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 30. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 31. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 32. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 33. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 34. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 35. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 36. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 37. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 38. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types ? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 39. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types ? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 40. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types ? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 13 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 41. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 14 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 42. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 14 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 43. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? Information Gathering DB - Information Logic + Uncertainty Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 14 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 44. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? Information Gathering DB - Information ? Logic + Uncertainty Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 14 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 45. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? My objective is to define and represent a context model for the interoperability of Sensor Networks. As my background is not computer science, it's being a little hard to Information Gathering understand how to put in DB - Information ? practice a probabilistic ontology. PhD student, Wageningen University, The Netherlands Logic + Uncertainty Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 14 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 46. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? This seems a very promising My objective is to define and tool, but we need to learn how represent a context model for to best make use of it. When the interoperability of Sensor we try to design using Networks. As my background is UnBBayes, the questions we not computer science, it's are trying to answer is how do being a little hard to you identify which entities Information Gathering understand how to put in DB - Information are relevant to the problem ? practice a probabilistic and how translate them as ontology. variables Logic system. in your PhD student, Wageningen University, The Netherlands Fusion Engineer, EADS Innovation Works, UK + Uncertainty Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 14 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 47. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? This seems a very promising My objective is to define and tool, but we need to learn how represent a context model for to best make use of it. When the interoperability of Sensor we try to design using Networks. As my background is UnBBayes, the questions we not computer science, it's are trying to answer is how do being a little hard to you identify which entities Information Gathering understand how to put in DB - Information are relevant to the problem ? practice a probabilistic and how translate them as ontology. variables Logic system. in your PhD student, Wageningen University, The Netherlands Fusion Engineer, EADS Innovation Works, UK I am evaluating PR-OWL as a + knowledge representation as Uncertainty well as reasoning formalism. Public Notices I'd like to explore if/how it can - Data Design - UnBBayes be used for applications using resource devices. PhD student, University of Texas at Arlington, USA Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 14 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 48. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? This seems a very promising My objective is to define and tool, but we need to learn how represent a context model for to best make use of it. When the interoperability of Sensor we try to design using Networks. As my background is UnBBayes, the questions we not computer science, it's are trying to answer is how do being a little hard to you identify which entities Information Gathering understand how to put in DB - Information are relevant to the problem ? practice a probabilistic and how translate them as ontology. variables Logic system. in your PhD student, Wageningen University, The Netherlands Fusion Engineer, EADS Innovation Works, UK I am evaluating PR-OWL as a + knowledge representation as Uncertainty these variables? Why use well as reasoning formalism. Why they are connected in Public Notices I'd like to explore if/how it can - Data such a way? How -do you Design UnBBayes be used for applications choose what type of using resource devices. variable it is? Fusion Engineer, EADS Innovation Works, UK PhD student, University of Texas at Arlington, USA Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 14 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 49. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? This seems a very promising My objective is to define and tool, but we need to learn how represent a context model for to best make use of it. When the interoperability of Sensor we try to design using Networks.One thing which might be beyond the scope of the questions we As my background is UnBBayes, this tutorial is a not computer science, it'sof Modeling with MEBN". to answer is how do write-up about "Art are trying Both narration and being a little hard to the resultant MEBN help in understanding the problem, but you identify which entities how one reach from a problem descriptionInformation at Information Gathering understand how to put in DB - to the problem are relevantto a MEBN ? practice a probabilistic clear. ... So when it how translate them as times is not very and comes to MEBN, how one decides about the context nodes, input nodes and system. ontology. variables Logic resident in your PhD student, Wageningen University, The Netherlands nodes? Most of the times it mightFusion Engineer, EADS Innovationbut UK be pretty obvious Works, I am evaluating PR-OWL as why certain nodes + modeled sometimes it is not very cleara are knowledge representation when they could also be modeled variables? as input nodes in a fragmentas Uncertainty these Why use as context nodes, etc. Should we follow an object-oriented connected in well as reasoning formalism. Why they are I'd like to when identifying important entities or should we How -do you Public Notices approach explore if/how it can - Data such a way? Design UnBBayes think used for applications logic, etc.? As a modeler what be in terms of predicate choose what type of using resource devices. drives our thinking process? variable it is? Fusion Engineer, EADS Innovation Works, UK PhD student, University of Texas at Arlington, USA Professor, Institute of Business Administration, Pakistan Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 14 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 50. 2nd Problem - Methodology There is now substantial literature about what PR-OWL is [2, 4, 5], how to implement it [6-9], and where it can be used [10-15] There is an emerging literature on ontology engineering [4, 28] But, little has been written about how to model a probabilistic ontology This lack of methodology is not only associated with PR-OWL OntoBayes [30], BayesOWL [31], P-SHIF(D) and P-SHOIN(D) [32], Markov Logic Network [33], Bayesian Logic [63], and Probabilistic Relational Models [64], amongst others, do not have a methodology for creating models Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 15 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 51. Contributions For the 1st problem - Mapping/Types Extended probabilistic web ontology language (PR-OWL) in order to: Provide a mapping between deterministic knowledge and probabilistic knowledge Allow reuse of existing types provided by OWL Led the development of a proof of concept tool in collaboration with UnB [105] For the 2nd problem - Methodology Developed a methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies (POs) Created two use cases using the proposed methodology Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 16 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 52. Representing Uncertainty in Semantic Technologies Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 17 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 53. Uncertainty in the SW Deterministic SW will either consider a statement to be true, false, or unknown Shortcoming: no built-in support for uncertainty In open world partial (not complete) or approximate (not exact) information is more the rule than the exception Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 18 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 54. Uncertainty in the SW Deterministic SW will either consider a statement to be true, false, or unknown Shortcoming: no built-in support for uncertainty In open world partial (not complete) or approximate (not exact) information is more the rule than the exception ∀x,y,z ((Mother(x,y) ∧ Mother(z,y)) Sibling(x,z)) ∀x,y (Sibling(x,y) Related(x,y)) ∀y∃x,z,r Committee(x,y) ∧ Participant(z,y) ∧ Responsible(r,z) ∧ Related(x,r) ViolationOfLaw(y) Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 18 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 55. Uncertainty in the SW Deterministic SW will either consider a statement to be true, false, or unknown Shortcoming: no built-in support for uncertainty In open world partial (not complete) or approximate (not exact) information is more the rule than the exception Committee(John,procurement34) Participant(ITBusiness,procurement34) ∀x,y,z ((Mother(x,y) ∧ Mother(z,y)) Sibling(x,z)) Responsible(Richard,ITBusiness) ∀x,y (Sibling(x,y) Related(x,y)) ∀y∃x,z,r Committee(x,y) Mother(John,Jane) ∧ Participant(z,y) ∧ Responsible(r,z) Mother(Richard,Jane) ∧ Related(x,r) ViolationOfLaw(y) Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 18 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 56. Uncertainty in the SW Deterministic SW will either consider a statement to be true, false, or unknown Shortcoming: no built-in support for uncertainty In open world partial (not complete) or approximate (not exact) information is more the rule than the exception Committee(John,procurement34) Participant(ITBusiness,procurement34) ? ∀x,y,z ((Mother(x,y) ∧ Mother(z,y)) Sibling(x,z)) Responsible(Richard,ITBusiness) ∀x,y (Sibling(x,y) Related(x,y)) LivesAt(John,Address1) ∀y∃x,z,r Committee(x,y) LivesAt(Richard,Address1) ∧ Participant(z,y) ∧ Responsible(r,z) LastName(John,White) LastName(Richard,White) ∧ Related(x,r) ViolationOfLaw(y) Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 18 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 57. Uncertainty in the SW The community recognizes the need to represent and reason with uncertainty W3C created the URW3-XG in 2007 Concluded that standardized representations were needed [50] PR-OWL is a candidate language to represent probabilistic ontologies Based on MEBN logic Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 19 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 58. MEBN Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 20 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 59. MEBN Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 20 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 60. Why MEBN? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 21 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 61. Why MEBN? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 21 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 62. Why MEBN? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 21 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 63. Why MEBN? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 21 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 64. Why MEBN? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 21 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 65. PR-OWL 1.0 Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 22 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 66. PR-OWL 1.0 Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 22 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 67. UnBBayes - MEBN / PR-OWL 1.0 Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 23 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 68. 1st Major Contribution PR-OWL 2.0 Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 24 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 69. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 25 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 70. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types ? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 25 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 71. 1st Problem - Mapping/Types ? Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 25 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 72. Mapping Schema PR-OWL OWL Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 73. Mapping Schema PR-OWL OWL Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 74. Mapping Schema PR-OWL OWL hasEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 75. Mapping Schema PR-OWL OWL hasEducationLevel Person Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 76. Mapping Schema PR-OWL OWL hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 77. Mapping Schema PR-OWL OWL hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 78. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV OWL hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 79. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV hasEducationLevel_RV_person OWL hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 80. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV hasEducationLevel_RV_person OWL _MFrag.person hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 81. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV hasEducationLevel_RV_person OWL _MFrag.person hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 82. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV hasEducationLevel_RV_person OWL _MFrag.person hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel domain Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 83. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV hasEducationLevel_RV_person OWL _MFrag.person hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel domain range Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 84. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV hasEducationLevel_RV_person OWL _MFrag.person Person hasEducationLevel hasEducationLevel ? aspiresEducationLevel domain range EducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 85. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV hasEducationLevel_RV_person OWL _MFrag.person hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 86. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV hasArgument hasEducationLevel_RV_person hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor OWL _MFrag.person hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 87. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV “2”^^int hasArgument hasArgNumber hasEducationLevel_RV_person hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor OWL _MFrag.person hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 88. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV “2”^^int hasArgument hasArgNumber hasEducationLevel_RV_person hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor hasArgTerm _MFrag.advisor OWL _MFrag.person hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 89. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV “2”^^int hasArgument hasArgNumber hasEducationLevel_RV_person hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor hasArgTerm _MFrag.advisor OWL _MFrag.person isSubsBy Person hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 90. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV “2”^^int hasArgument hasArgNumber hasEducationLevel_RV_person hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor hasArgTerm _MFrag.advisor hasEducationLevelAdvisor OWL _MFrag.person isSubsBy range domain Person hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 91. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV “2”^^int ? hasArgument hasArgNumber hasEducationLevel_RV_person hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor hasArgTerm _MFrag.advisor hasEducationLevelAdvisor OWL _MFrag.person isSubsBy range domain Person hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 92. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV “2”^^int hasArgument hasArgNumber hasEducationLevel_RV_person hasEducationLevel_RV_advisor hasArgTerm isObjectIn isSubjectIn _MFrag.advisor hasEducationLevelAdvisor OWL _MFrag.person isSubsBy range domain Person hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 93. Mapping Schema PR-OWL hasEducationLevel_RV hasEducationLevel_RV_person isSubjectIn OWL _MFrag.person hasEducationLevel Person EducationLevel hasEducationLevel aspiresEducationLevel Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 26 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 94. Using Existing Types *reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 27 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 95. Using Existing Types *reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 27 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 96. Using Existing Types *reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version Boolean Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 27 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 97. Using Existing Types *reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version Boolean Nominal Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 27 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 98. Using Existing Types *reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version Boolean Nominal Class Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 27 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 99. Using Existing Types *reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version Boolean Nominal Class X Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 27 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 100. Using Existing Types *reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version Boolean DataType Nominal Class X Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 27 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 101. Using Existing Types *reproduced with permission from [2] - extended version Entity Boolean DataType Nominal Class X Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 27 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 102. PR-OWL 2.0 - Proof of Concept Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 28 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 103. PR-OWL 2.0 - Proof of Concept Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 29 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 104. PR-OWL 2.0 - Proof of Concept Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 30 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 105. PR-OWL 2.0 - Proof of Concept Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 31 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 106. PR-OWL 2.0 - Proof of Concept Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 32 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 107. 2nd Major Contribution Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technologies (UMP-ST) Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 33 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 108. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? Information Gathering DB - Information Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 34 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 109. How to build Probabilistic Ontologies? Information Gathering DB - Information ? Logic + Uncertainty Public Notices - Data Design - UnBBayes Report for Decision Makers Inference - Knowledge Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 34 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 110. 2nd Problem - Methodology There is now substantial literature about what PR-OWL is [2, 4, 5], how to implement it [6-9], and where it can be used [10-15] There is an emerging literature on ontology engineering [4, 28] But, little has been written about how to model a probabilistic ontology This lack of methodology is not only associated with PR-OWL OntoBayes [30], BayesOWL [31], P-SHIF(D) and P-SHOIN(D) [32], Markov Logic Network [33], Bayesian Logic [63], and Probabilistic Relation Models [64], amongst others, do not have a methodology for creating models Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 35 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 111. Methodology Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 36 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 112. Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 37 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 113. Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 37 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 114. Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 37 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 115. Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud Goal: Find suspicious procurements Query: Is there any relation between the committee and the enterprises that participated in the procurement? Evidence: They are siblings They live at the same address Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 37 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 116. Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud Goal: Find suspicious procurements Query: Is there any relation between the committee and the enterprises that participated in the procurement? Evidence: They are siblings They live at the same address Person Procurement Enterprise ownerOf participatesIn livesAt Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 37 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 117. Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud Goal: Find suspicious procurements Query: Is there any relation between the committee and the enterprises that participated in the procurement? Evidence: They are siblings They live at the same address Person Procurement Enterprise ownerOf participatesIn livesAt If a member of the committee lives at the same address as a person responsible for a bidder in the procurement, a relationship is more likely to exist between the committee and the enterprises, which lowers competition. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 37 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 118. Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud Goal: Find suspicious procurements Query: Is there any relation between the committee and the enterprises that participated in the procurement? Evidence: They are siblings They live at the same address Person Procurement Enterprise ownerOf participatesIn livesAt If a member of the committee lives at the same address as a person responsible for a bidder in the procurement, a relationship is more likely to exist between the committee and the enterprises, which lowers competition. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 37 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 119. Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud Goal: Find suspicious procurements Query: Is there any relation between the committee and the enterprises that participated in the procurement? Evidence: They are siblings They live at the same address Person Procurement Enterprise ownerOf participatesIn livesAt If a member of the committee lives at the same address as a person responsible for a bidder in the procurement, a relationship is more likely to exist between the committee and the enterprises, which lowers competition. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 37 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 120. Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud Goal: Find suspicious procurements Query: Is there any relation between the committee and the enterprises that participated in the procurement? Evidence: They are siblings They live at the same address Person Procurement Enterprise ownerOf participatesIn livesAt If a member of the committee lives at the same address as a person responsible for a bidder in the procurement, a relationship is more likely to exist between the committee and the enterprises, which lowers competition. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 37 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 121. Modeling Cycle - Procurement Fraud Goal: Find suspicious procurements Query: Is there any relation between the committee and the enterprises that participated in the procurement? Evidence: They are siblings They live at the same address Person Procurement Enterprise ownerOf participatesIn livesAt If a member of the committee lives at the same address as a person responsible for a bidder in the procurement, a relationship is more likely to exist between the committee and the enterprises, which lowers competition. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 37 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 122. Evaluation - Procurement Fraud Case-based evaluation (integration test / scenarios) Scenario Hypothesis (H) Evidence (E) Expected Result Result (a) isSuspiciousProcurement (a) Low probability that (a) P(H = true | E) = (procurement) ...does not P(H = true | E) 2.35% 1 support (b) isSuspiciousCommittee hypothesis... (b) Low probability that (b) P(H = true | E) = (procurement) P(H = true | E) 2.33% (a) isSuspiciousProcurement ...does and does (a) P(H = true | E) = (procurement) not support (a) 10% < P(H = true | E) < 50% 20.82% 2 hypothesis... (b) isSuspiciousCommittee ...conflicting (b) 10% < P(H = true | E) < 50% (b) P(H = true | E) = (procurement) information... 28.95% (a) isSuspiciousProcurement (a) P(H = true | E) = (procurement) (a) P(H = true | E) > 50% 60.08% ...support 3 hypothesis... (b) isSuspiciousCommittee (b) 10% < P(H = true | E) < 50% (b) P(H = true | E) = (procurement) 28.95% Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 38 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 123. Modeling Cycle - MDA GO FASTER ON THIS SLIDE! JUST SAY THAT I USED THE SAME METHODOLOGY ON A DIFFERENT DOMAIN. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 39 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 124. Modeling Cycle - MDA GO FASTER ON THIS SLIDE! JUST SAY THAT I USED THE SAME METHODOLOGY ON A DIFFERENT DOMAIN. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 39 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 125. Modeling Cycle - MDA GO FASTER ON THIS SLIDE! JUST SAY THAT I USED THE SAME METHODOLOGY ON A DIFFERENT DOMAIN. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 39 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 126. Modeling Cycle - MDA Goal: Identify whether a ship is a ship of interest Query: Does the ship have a terrorist crew member? Evidence: Crew member related to any terrorist; Crew member associated with terrorist organization GO FASTER ON THIS SLIDE! JUST SAY THAT I USED THE SAME METHODOLOGY ON A DIFFERENT DOMAIN. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 39 Monday, June 27, 2011
  • 127. Modeling Cycle - MDA Goal: Identify whether a ship is a ship of interest Query: Does the ship have a terrorist crew member? Evidence: Crew member related to any terrorist; Crew member associated with terrorist organization Ship Person Organization isTerroristPerson GO FASTER ON THIS hasCrewMember SLIDE! JUST SAY THAT I isRelatedTo USED THE SAME METHODOLOGY ON A DIFFERENT DOMAIN. Introduction - Representing Uncertainty in ST - PR-OWL 2.0 - UMP-ST - Conclusion 39 Monday, June 27, 2011