Download to read offline
Uploaded byImprovement Skills Consulting Ltd.
Pro Bono OR: Making a difference for dogs
The document discusses how operational research was used to help dogs and animal welfare organizations. A pro bono operational research steering group developed a model to understand the flows of dogs through the UK system and forecast the impacts of interventions. This helped the RSPCA inform campaigns and policy responses. The group also worked with a dog welfare beneficiary to create a probability tree tool to help dog breeders predict genetic risks and make informed breeding decisions. The tool aims to increase awareness and investigate different breeding strategies. Overall, the pro bono work shows how operational research can make a positive difference.
Pro Bono OR: Making a difference for dogs
- 1. Pro Bono OR: Makinga difference for dogs Ian J Seath Trustee Exchange 29 July 2020
- 2. Operational Research andme! PBOR Steering Group Volunteer Project Facilitator Project Beneficiary
- 3. Pro Bono ORSteering Group PBOR Steering Group Volunteer Project Facilitator Project Beneficiary • Steering Group member from Day 1 • Project Definition & Scoping
- 4. Pro Bono Volunteer PBOR Steering Group Volunteer Project Facilitator Project Beneficiary •Commitment to 1 day/month Pro Bono • >£100k of PB consulting • Supported >25 organisations
- 5. Pro Bono ProjectFacilitator PBOR Steering Group Volunteer Project Facilitator Project Beneficiary
- 6. Can we answerthe following questions? • How many dogs there are “in the system” in the UK and how do they move between different parts of the system? • How many dogs are relinquished and why? Which type of dog? • Can we forecast the likely impact of different interventions ?
- 7. Stray dogs Dogs inwelfare Owned dogs Owned births Owned deaths Stray births Stray deaths Welfare births Welfare deaths Owned dogs to welfare Welfare dogs to owned Owned dogs to stray Stray dogs to owned Stray dogs to welfare Imported owned dogs Dogs imported to welfare Owned dog exports Number of dogs microchipped Owner education level re dogs Welfare life expectancy Owned dog life expectancy Stray dog life expectancy Space available in welfare Euthanasia policy Emmigration Number of dog breeders Number of puppy farms Funding for welfare Welfare capacity Demand for dogs in UK Number of owned dogs having puppies Demand for dogs - non-UK Disposable income Insurance rates Number of dogs lost Number of dogs abandoned Number of dogs neutered 9.4m (23) 2009 LB: 12,340 2010 LB:10,630 est 1,250 (300 to 2130) 111,000 per year (13) Strays back to owner - 53,280 per year (13) Rehomed - 9,990 per year (13) Put to sleep/die 8,880 per year (13) Working dogs 27,750 per year (13) Entering welfare: 129,743 per year (1) 0.5% of welfare in flows (27, scaled) 11.4% of outflow died (27) LB 7142 euthanised (1) Assume 0 Welfare dogs reunited with owner - 12.5% of those entering = 16,218 (1). 7.7% of those entering (27) Rehomed - 80.9% of outflows (27) 69.5% of welfare inflows (27, scaled) 30% of welfare inflows (27, scaled) - this includes LA and public straying dogs 11.4% of dogs per year? (36) 25% of dogs per year? (est from 24, 41) 12 years (34) 4% of microchipped are from Ireland, 3% from other EU, 2% from outside EU - needs scaling up by 2% (24) 50,000 dogs imported from Ireland per year (31) Working dogs to owned greyhounds - 3,910 per year (33) Working dog births Working dog deaths Working dog life expectancy Requirements for working dogs Working dogs to welfareAt least 2500 police dogs (45) The Model
- 8. How the RSPCAhas been able to use the results Helping to scope the direction of their campaign to tackle the illegal trade in puppies Using the data to inform their response to DEFRA’s consultation on overhauling existing pet vending legislation
- 9. Pro Bono Beneficiary PBOR Steering Group Volunteer Project Facilitator Project Beneficiary •Trustee • Data-rich • “Wicked” problems
- 10. Developing a toolto help dog breeders predict genetic risks
- 12. DNA tests MiniatureWirehaired Dachshunds 4 populations 2 tests available Not consistently used Tested and no recessive gene (clear) Tested and non-symptomatic (carrier) Known to suffer from epilepsy (Lafora disease) Need to identify breeding pairs which may produce affected puppies Tested and symptomatic (affected) Tested ”Not affected” (clear or carrier) Identifies if the dog carries the recessive gene Lafora disease and DNA testing
- 13. Data Lots of unknownsand estimated values. Requirement Simple, robust model which provides indicative results. Solution Probability trees. 1 2 3 Developing a tool
- 14. Clear Affected Carrier 0.45 Clear Carrier 0.45 Affected Clear Carrier Affected 0.75 0.25 0 When a carrierand clear dog breed, the resulting puppies can be clear or carriers – there are not two recessive genes present to allow for an affected puppy Simple probability tree
- 15. The benefits Increasing awareness • Probabilityof breeding affected puppies Informed decisions • Robust, simple to use model Simple methodology • Investigate different breeding strategies Predictive analysis
- 16.
- 17.
- 18. Lessons learned asa charity Keep focused on what you are trying to achieve 01 Keep in touch with the analyst on project progress 02 Define “done” with the analyst – meet your needs 03 It’s not about being clever, it’s about being helpful 04
- 19. Ian J Seath ian.seath@improvement- skills.co.uk 07850728506 www.dachshundhealth.org.uk
- 20.