The document summarizes the author's perspective on major events that have occurred since 2001 and the lessons learned regarding infrastructure resilience. It discusses three phases of resilience: resist, respond, and recover. Major events discussed include the 2001 Gujarat earthquake, 9/11, SARS, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, and Hurricane Katrina. The author emphasizes the importance of "core capacity" in infrastructure systems and warns that deferred maintenance represents a real cost and risk to resilience.
This is the presentation I gave to the Canterbury Branch of the New Zealand Computer Society to give an overview of Sahana, and plans to set up an NZ Sahana Cluster. Credit to Tim McNamara for the fonts and design that I broadly copied for the presentation. License CC-BY v3.0 (Attribution: Gavin Treadgold).
In a traditional project management approach, control of project dynamics is often described by the project management triangle that shows the need to balance the competing forces of cost, quality and time. Control bases include estimate, schedules and various definitions of fit for purpose or quality.
Time frames are traditionally those associated with initial delivery of the facility and generally do not consider activities during the operating and maintenance period.
Under a strategic program management approach the control of program dynamics is more robust, corresponding to the increased challenges such programs often face because of factors such as scale, complexity and increased duration. This last factor drives significant changes in program control bases when time durations encompassing the entire lifecycle are considered.
In such programs the traditional project triangle can be replaced with a “Program Tetrahedron” where the traditional, three control bases are defined in a more expansive manner and three new control bases are introduced.
Addressing Project Capital Efficiency through a Business Basis of Design
Large capital construction projects in both the industrial and infrastructure sectors are challenged today in three significant ways:
Capital efficiency of the project – this considers both first costs as well as life cycle costs
Capital certainty – reflecting execution efficiency, predictability and effective risk transfer through appropriate contracting strategies
Time to market – perhaps best thought of as schedule certainty but also accelerated delivery of projects, often an essential ingredient in capital efficiency
This paper focuses on achieving improved capital efficiency in large capital asset projects through the adoption of an expanded basis of design that considers all aspects of a capital asset’s life cycle. In many projects today the basis of design (BOD) largely encompasses the engineering parameters which are required to meet the owner’s project requirements.
Constructability and maintainability are often treated as review items to confirm that the developed design is both constructible and maintainable and to suggest improvements at the margins. Effective constructability and maintainability reviews add value to the project but do not fundamentally act to shape the design itself in most instances.
The premise of this paper is that more, much more, is required to develop effective designs that are developed with construction and maintenance as fundamental project requirements. In this sense construction and maintenance considerations are not items to be reviewed but rather fundamental requirements to be satisfied together with other project requirements established by the owner. The change suggested is about a shift in mindset and perspective as well as in our design work processes.
Prieto intersection of engineering construction logistics Bob Prieto
Today’s highly engineered environment requires a new first responder team that includes engineers and constructors. The importance of these new first responders could be seen in efforts to remove bent steel beams in the search for survivors on 9/11; seal levee breaches after Katrina; restore power and water supply after the tsunami at Fukushima; and the massive infrastructure recovery efforts following Super Storm Sandy in New York and New Jersey. These new first responders are also essential for rebuilding after the immediate response phase.
Events of scale change the normal construction process. New logistical challenges emerge and evolve in the post-disaster phase. These challenges include destroyed logistical facilities; competition with other post-disaster aid flows; and disrupted supply chains.
Challenges of infrastructure and long term investmentBob Prieto
In July of this year I had the opportunity to participate in a high level roundtable discussion in support of the Post-2015 development and climate change agendas of the United Nations. The focus of the panel discussion was to identify potential “moments” and “movements” that could represent game changing and enabling opportunities for implementation of each of these agendas. During our deliberations we identified long term investment in infrastructure and improvements to the infrastructure prioritization and delivery processes as a primary challenge and opportunity.
At one level this is readily understandable but at another level, the strength and importance of infrastructure to achieving these broad global agendas had never been so directly and strongly linked. This was made all the more important given the diversity of backgrounds represented in the discussion.
Through their deliberations the panel outlined a long term vision and roadmap for implementation including identification of a potential “grand challenge” to act as a centerpiece for a relevant “movement” in support of these development and climate change agendas.
This is the presentation I gave to the Canterbury Branch of the New Zealand Computer Society to give an overview of Sahana, and plans to set up an NZ Sahana Cluster. Credit to Tim McNamara for the fonts and design that I broadly copied for the presentation. License CC-BY v3.0 (Attribution: Gavin Treadgold).
In a traditional project management approach, control of project dynamics is often described by the project management triangle that shows the need to balance the competing forces of cost, quality and time. Control bases include estimate, schedules and various definitions of fit for purpose or quality.
Time frames are traditionally those associated with initial delivery of the facility and generally do not consider activities during the operating and maintenance period.
Under a strategic program management approach the control of program dynamics is more robust, corresponding to the increased challenges such programs often face because of factors such as scale, complexity and increased duration. This last factor drives significant changes in program control bases when time durations encompassing the entire lifecycle are considered.
In such programs the traditional project triangle can be replaced with a “Program Tetrahedron” where the traditional, three control bases are defined in a more expansive manner and three new control bases are introduced.
Addressing Project Capital Efficiency through a Business Basis of Design
Large capital construction projects in both the industrial and infrastructure sectors are challenged today in three significant ways:
Capital efficiency of the project – this considers both first costs as well as life cycle costs
Capital certainty – reflecting execution efficiency, predictability and effective risk transfer through appropriate contracting strategies
Time to market – perhaps best thought of as schedule certainty but also accelerated delivery of projects, often an essential ingredient in capital efficiency
This paper focuses on achieving improved capital efficiency in large capital asset projects through the adoption of an expanded basis of design that considers all aspects of a capital asset’s life cycle. In many projects today the basis of design (BOD) largely encompasses the engineering parameters which are required to meet the owner’s project requirements.
Constructability and maintainability are often treated as review items to confirm that the developed design is both constructible and maintainable and to suggest improvements at the margins. Effective constructability and maintainability reviews add value to the project but do not fundamentally act to shape the design itself in most instances.
The premise of this paper is that more, much more, is required to develop effective designs that are developed with construction and maintenance as fundamental project requirements. In this sense construction and maintenance considerations are not items to be reviewed but rather fundamental requirements to be satisfied together with other project requirements established by the owner. The change suggested is about a shift in mindset and perspective as well as in our design work processes.
Prieto intersection of engineering construction logistics Bob Prieto
Today’s highly engineered environment requires a new first responder team that includes engineers and constructors. The importance of these new first responders could be seen in efforts to remove bent steel beams in the search for survivors on 9/11; seal levee breaches after Katrina; restore power and water supply after the tsunami at Fukushima; and the massive infrastructure recovery efforts following Super Storm Sandy in New York and New Jersey. These new first responders are also essential for rebuilding after the immediate response phase.
Events of scale change the normal construction process. New logistical challenges emerge and evolve in the post-disaster phase. These challenges include destroyed logistical facilities; competition with other post-disaster aid flows; and disrupted supply chains.
Challenges of infrastructure and long term investmentBob Prieto
In July of this year I had the opportunity to participate in a high level roundtable discussion in support of the Post-2015 development and climate change agendas of the United Nations. The focus of the panel discussion was to identify potential “moments” and “movements” that could represent game changing and enabling opportunities for implementation of each of these agendas. During our deliberations we identified long term investment in infrastructure and improvements to the infrastructure prioritization and delivery processes as a primary challenge and opportunity.
At one level this is readily understandable but at another level, the strength and importance of infrastructure to achieving these broad global agendas had never been so directly and strongly linked. This was made all the more important given the diversity of backgrounds represented in the discussion.
Through their deliberations the panel outlined a long term vision and roadmap for implementation including identification of a potential “grand challenge” to act as a centerpiece for a relevant “movement” in support of these development and climate change agendas.
This article deals basically with the dynamic environment of todays.docxhowardh5
This article deals basically with the dynamic environment of today's businesses. Despite all of the efforts a company puts forth to scan the environmental issues, crises can occur and have to be managed. The article first reviews several crises in businesses during the recent times, to define and identify the nature of a crisis. Then the anatomy of a crisis is presented schematically. Finally, by recommending certain preventive measures and interventions, the article concludes that acknowledging a crisis and communicating with the stakeholders are as important as planning the prevention, diagnosis, and intervention to solve crisis situations.
Full Text
Toby J. Kash: Pittsburg State University, Pittsburg, Kansas, USA
John R. Darling: Pittsburg State University, Pittsburg, Kansas, USA
Introduction
Strategic planning as a discipline has been concurrently taught and exercised in the past 40 years. This relatively new concept has been the major thrust in the management of US corporations. The art of strategic planning has helped the planners to forecast and cope with a variety of forces, issues and problems beyond their operating control. Nevertheless, all the non-foreseeable issues cannot be forecasted. Therefore, a certain productive function for the management of these issues and crises seems to be missing in a large number of companies. The strategic planning literature shows an experience curve in such forecasts, i.e. as mistakes are made, we learn from them. That is how contingency planning, scenario analysis and surprise management have evolved. The Johnson and Johnson Tylenol case, and the Union Carbide tragedy in Bhopal, India, are examples recurrently referred to in the strategic management literature. The way these two companies dealt with a crisis issue has provided us with a certain level of knowledge and experience that can be used in similar situations.
We have also learned that it is no longer a question of "if" a business will face a crisis; it is, rather, a question of "when," "what type" and "how prepared" the company is to deal with it (Mittroff et. al., 1996). Whether it is a natural disaster, such as an earthquake, tornado or flood, or a man made disaster, such as accidents, wildcat strikes or product tampering, a business will eventually face some form of crisis.
The MIR space station, built and placed in operation by the Soviet Union in 1986, had a very limited mission and encountered anticipated mechanical problems, for which the planners had devised solutions. With the infusion of $400 million by the USA to jointly operate the system, MIR faced a situation in June 1997 that was not forecasted. An unmanned cargo ship hit the spacecraft, disabling the MIR solar panels, thus affecting the airconditioning and lighting functions. This was a crisis to deal with. Two measures were found appropriate: a space walk for temporary repairs, and a manned supply shuttle later to perform major repairs. The question is, could t.
Running head PBAD201-1303B-03 P4IPP4IP .docxjoellemurphey
Running head: PBAD201-1303B-03 P4IP
P4IP 2
PBAD201-1303B-03 P4IP
Colorado Technical University
Instructor: Professor Knetzger
Connie Hutson
15 September 2013
PBAD201-1303B-03 P43IP
Colorado Technical University
Instructor: Professor Knetzger
Connie Hutson
15 September 2013
Earthquake Preparedness
Every disaster has different effects. It can cause permanent damage or temporary inconvenience. This research paper seeks to illustrate how to avoid terrible outcomes of unexpected earthquakes. Every disaster, if prepared for can cause less damage. An earthquake is one natural disaster that has a high rate of damage in its after effects. It is known as the abrupt and fast shaking of the ground caused as rock breaks and shifts due to the strain that has accumulated over a long period (Walker 2008). Earthquakes are one of the major disasters not anticipated, and they end up causing irreparable damage. This paper will use a sample of the San Francisco Bay area. It has a population size of 7,150,739 people as at the census taken in 2010. The Bay Area sits at border where a couple of the earth’s biggest tectonic plates intersect and pass each other. Sometimes, the boundary faults may break. Then the North American plate hurls at the Pacific Plates. This is when an earthquake occurs.
The area has had a number of earthquakes, a trend that scientists cannot take to be random. Some of the earthquakes have a magnitude of 6 and even higher. There is a high frequency of earthquakes. It is estimated that there is a 50% probability that in the next thirty years there will be more occurrences of the same magnitude. Ranging from 1836 to 1911, there was an alarming 18 earthquakes. The Earthquake that occurred in 1906 caused a great strain. This is believed to be the reason for the reduction in earthquakes since only one followed that. The Loma Prieta earthquake had a magnitude of 7.1. It occurred after 1979 (Walker 2008).
Factors that make this area suitable for my proposal are the population of bay area is considerably high, and a great number of people will be affected by an earthquake should it occur. The reason for this is that the area is strategically located between two tectonic plates, making it prone to earthquake occurrence. In addition to this, the continual damage proves that the area needs to take up measures to keep it free from more damage. It could gain from learning about disaster preparedness. These strategies would eliminate the greater risks by foreseeing them and training the residents. From studies carried out bay area is prone to the occurrence of earthquake especially in the future due to the factors mentioned above. Furthermore, only a few individual poses the disaster management skills, which increases fears and further affect the area economic ...
This short essay (a final draft from a forthcoming conference summary) was written following the Pace University Summit on Resilience in January, 2012.
More: http://www.pace.edu/resilience
More on Dot Earth: http://j.mp/dotsandy
Invest in Infrastructure throughout its Life CycleBob Prieto
Infrastructure is a system—not just the physical system but the processes, training, operation, and maintenance of that system. Post-disaster, you might have two or three different ways to build out a system so that it’s able to resist, respond, and recover. And each of those approaches will have different levels of inherent resilience.
More complex systems may have less inherent resilience, because in complexity there are risks as well as opportunities to fail that are not immediately obvious. Unanticipated events—black swans—love complexity; they invest and breed in complexity.
So resilience to me is a system-level property. Therefore, less complex, more transparent, easier to understand, more flexible, more adaptable, responsive systems will have higher levels of resiliency.
Every day, our country’s infrastructure is becoming less resilient for two high-level reasons. The more important one is that our investments in sustaining the operability and maintenance of our infrastructure do not keep up with the amount of decay and degradation that our infrastructure incurs. We do not invest sufficiently in sustaining our current infrastructure—especially throughout its entire life cycle. air and water pollution as well as more frequent instances of natural and manmade events of scale.
The good news is some of our infrastructure was designed to be fairly resistant to those attacks—and some of our newer infrastructure systems and operating and maintenance practices are incorporating more resilience. But on average, the resilience of our infrastructure systems is diminished with every passing day.
We always talk about having a lifecycle focus, but we’re going to have to reflect that in our codes and standards. We need to design, build, operate, and maintain infrastructure more holistically.
I think that’s an important
mental shift.
Similarly, how we fund these things is going to have to be on a lifecycle basis. We’ll go out and assemble money to build the new bridge. But having built the new bridge, have we put in place the funding to actually sustain the new bridge, to maintain it properly so that we don’t have to replace it after 40 years? Can it be operated with the same level of safety and quality and inherent resilience that it had on the day it was originally delivered, or are we going to accept degraded infrastructure?
And then the question becomes, “Do we understand the cost of that degraded infrastructure to our economic output?” The short answer is, “No, we don’t.”
Application of system life cycle processes to large complex engineering and c...Bob Prieto
The complexity of megaprojects and programs continues to grow and with it the challenges of delivering ever larger and more complex programs. These large complex programs open the door to many new opportunities but also to increased challenges in delivery and sustainment throughout their lifecycle. Prior articles have described the open nature of this large complex program system and compared its attributes to many we find in the world of relativistic physics. These challenges must be addressed recognizing that they arise from a combination of physical, fiscal and human attributes in a realm of complexity which challenges the very foundations of project management theory.
This paper looks at hard systems aspects as contrasted with the soft system aspects more characteristic of an open system. Its purpose is to adapt a systems engineering framework associated with the hard closed elements of these large complex project systems without losing site of the overall open systems nature of large complex programs.
The systems life cycle process codified in ISO 15288 lends itself to application in large complex engineering and construction programs.
Engineering and construction project startupBob Prieto
This paper looks at engineering and construction project startup for three different project execution approaches. While specific to this industry, project professionals in other industries may find it is a good analog for their own efforts.
The paper underscores that:
• Large complex projects require strong foundations
• A day at the beginning of a project is just as valuable as a day at the end
• Strong project foundations are built during project startup
• Vertical startup is enabled by the use of a dedicated startup team
• Project startup should consider lessons learned on other projects
This paper addresses project startup for three general types of contracts:
• Pure design or engineering contracts typically performed for the Owner
• Design/build contracts performed for the Owner but recognizes that engineering may be undertaken by an engineering subcontractor within the D/B team
• Pure construction contract
More Related Content
Similar to Personal Perspectives: Program management and Events of Scale
This article deals basically with the dynamic environment of todays.docxhowardh5
This article deals basically with the dynamic environment of today's businesses. Despite all of the efforts a company puts forth to scan the environmental issues, crises can occur and have to be managed. The article first reviews several crises in businesses during the recent times, to define and identify the nature of a crisis. Then the anatomy of a crisis is presented schematically. Finally, by recommending certain preventive measures and interventions, the article concludes that acknowledging a crisis and communicating with the stakeholders are as important as planning the prevention, diagnosis, and intervention to solve crisis situations.
Full Text
Toby J. Kash: Pittsburg State University, Pittsburg, Kansas, USA
John R. Darling: Pittsburg State University, Pittsburg, Kansas, USA
Introduction
Strategic planning as a discipline has been concurrently taught and exercised in the past 40 years. This relatively new concept has been the major thrust in the management of US corporations. The art of strategic planning has helped the planners to forecast and cope with a variety of forces, issues and problems beyond their operating control. Nevertheless, all the non-foreseeable issues cannot be forecasted. Therefore, a certain productive function for the management of these issues and crises seems to be missing in a large number of companies. The strategic planning literature shows an experience curve in such forecasts, i.e. as mistakes are made, we learn from them. That is how contingency planning, scenario analysis and surprise management have evolved. The Johnson and Johnson Tylenol case, and the Union Carbide tragedy in Bhopal, India, are examples recurrently referred to in the strategic management literature. The way these two companies dealt with a crisis issue has provided us with a certain level of knowledge and experience that can be used in similar situations.
We have also learned that it is no longer a question of "if" a business will face a crisis; it is, rather, a question of "when," "what type" and "how prepared" the company is to deal with it (Mittroff et. al., 1996). Whether it is a natural disaster, such as an earthquake, tornado or flood, or a man made disaster, such as accidents, wildcat strikes or product tampering, a business will eventually face some form of crisis.
The MIR space station, built and placed in operation by the Soviet Union in 1986, had a very limited mission and encountered anticipated mechanical problems, for which the planners had devised solutions. With the infusion of $400 million by the USA to jointly operate the system, MIR faced a situation in June 1997 that was not forecasted. An unmanned cargo ship hit the spacecraft, disabling the MIR solar panels, thus affecting the airconditioning and lighting functions. This was a crisis to deal with. Two measures were found appropriate: a space walk for temporary repairs, and a manned supply shuttle later to perform major repairs. The question is, could t.
Running head PBAD201-1303B-03 P4IPP4IP .docxjoellemurphey
Running head: PBAD201-1303B-03 P4IP
P4IP 2
PBAD201-1303B-03 P4IP
Colorado Technical University
Instructor: Professor Knetzger
Connie Hutson
15 September 2013
PBAD201-1303B-03 P43IP
Colorado Technical University
Instructor: Professor Knetzger
Connie Hutson
15 September 2013
Earthquake Preparedness
Every disaster has different effects. It can cause permanent damage or temporary inconvenience. This research paper seeks to illustrate how to avoid terrible outcomes of unexpected earthquakes. Every disaster, if prepared for can cause less damage. An earthquake is one natural disaster that has a high rate of damage in its after effects. It is known as the abrupt and fast shaking of the ground caused as rock breaks and shifts due to the strain that has accumulated over a long period (Walker 2008). Earthquakes are one of the major disasters not anticipated, and they end up causing irreparable damage. This paper will use a sample of the San Francisco Bay area. It has a population size of 7,150,739 people as at the census taken in 2010. The Bay Area sits at border where a couple of the earth’s biggest tectonic plates intersect and pass each other. Sometimes, the boundary faults may break. Then the North American plate hurls at the Pacific Plates. This is when an earthquake occurs.
The area has had a number of earthquakes, a trend that scientists cannot take to be random. Some of the earthquakes have a magnitude of 6 and even higher. There is a high frequency of earthquakes. It is estimated that there is a 50% probability that in the next thirty years there will be more occurrences of the same magnitude. Ranging from 1836 to 1911, there was an alarming 18 earthquakes. The Earthquake that occurred in 1906 caused a great strain. This is believed to be the reason for the reduction in earthquakes since only one followed that. The Loma Prieta earthquake had a magnitude of 7.1. It occurred after 1979 (Walker 2008).
Factors that make this area suitable for my proposal are the population of bay area is considerably high, and a great number of people will be affected by an earthquake should it occur. The reason for this is that the area is strategically located between two tectonic plates, making it prone to earthquake occurrence. In addition to this, the continual damage proves that the area needs to take up measures to keep it free from more damage. It could gain from learning about disaster preparedness. These strategies would eliminate the greater risks by foreseeing them and training the residents. From studies carried out bay area is prone to the occurrence of earthquake especially in the future due to the factors mentioned above. Furthermore, only a few individual poses the disaster management skills, which increases fears and further affect the area economic ...
This short essay (a final draft from a forthcoming conference summary) was written following the Pace University Summit on Resilience in January, 2012.
More: http://www.pace.edu/resilience
More on Dot Earth: http://j.mp/dotsandy
Invest in Infrastructure throughout its Life CycleBob Prieto
Infrastructure is a system—not just the physical system but the processes, training, operation, and maintenance of that system. Post-disaster, you might have two or three different ways to build out a system so that it’s able to resist, respond, and recover. And each of those approaches will have different levels of inherent resilience.
More complex systems may have less inherent resilience, because in complexity there are risks as well as opportunities to fail that are not immediately obvious. Unanticipated events—black swans—love complexity; they invest and breed in complexity.
So resilience to me is a system-level property. Therefore, less complex, more transparent, easier to understand, more flexible, more adaptable, responsive systems will have higher levels of resiliency.
Every day, our country’s infrastructure is becoming less resilient for two high-level reasons. The more important one is that our investments in sustaining the operability and maintenance of our infrastructure do not keep up with the amount of decay and degradation that our infrastructure incurs. We do not invest sufficiently in sustaining our current infrastructure—especially throughout its entire life cycle. air and water pollution as well as more frequent instances of natural and manmade events of scale.
The good news is some of our infrastructure was designed to be fairly resistant to those attacks—and some of our newer infrastructure systems and operating and maintenance practices are incorporating more resilience. But on average, the resilience of our infrastructure systems is diminished with every passing day.
We always talk about having a lifecycle focus, but we’re going to have to reflect that in our codes and standards. We need to design, build, operate, and maintain infrastructure more holistically.
I think that’s an important
mental shift.
Similarly, how we fund these things is going to have to be on a lifecycle basis. We’ll go out and assemble money to build the new bridge. But having built the new bridge, have we put in place the funding to actually sustain the new bridge, to maintain it properly so that we don’t have to replace it after 40 years? Can it be operated with the same level of safety and quality and inherent resilience that it had on the day it was originally delivered, or are we going to accept degraded infrastructure?
And then the question becomes, “Do we understand the cost of that degraded infrastructure to our economic output?” The short answer is, “No, we don’t.”
Application of system life cycle processes to large complex engineering and c...Bob Prieto
The complexity of megaprojects and programs continues to grow and with it the challenges of delivering ever larger and more complex programs. These large complex programs open the door to many new opportunities but also to increased challenges in delivery and sustainment throughout their lifecycle. Prior articles have described the open nature of this large complex program system and compared its attributes to many we find in the world of relativistic physics. These challenges must be addressed recognizing that they arise from a combination of physical, fiscal and human attributes in a realm of complexity which challenges the very foundations of project management theory.
This paper looks at hard systems aspects as contrasted with the soft system aspects more characteristic of an open system. Its purpose is to adapt a systems engineering framework associated with the hard closed elements of these large complex project systems without losing site of the overall open systems nature of large complex programs.
The systems life cycle process codified in ISO 15288 lends itself to application in large complex engineering and construction programs.
Engineering and construction project startupBob Prieto
This paper looks at engineering and construction project startup for three different project execution approaches. While specific to this industry, project professionals in other industries may find it is a good analog for their own efforts.
The paper underscores that:
• Large complex projects require strong foundations
• A day at the beginning of a project is just as valuable as a day at the end
• Strong project foundations are built during project startup
• Vertical startup is enabled by the use of a dedicated startup team
• Project startup should consider lessons learned on other projects
This paper addresses project startup for three general types of contracts:
• Pure design or engineering contracts typically performed for the Owner
• Design/build contracts performed for the Owner but recognizes that engineering may be undertaken by an engineering subcontractor within the D/B team
• Pure construction contract
I have previously written about the transition that I believe is necessary in project management thinking related to large complex projects. In those writing I describe the shift as analogous to the shift from Newtonian to relativistic physics. Subsequently, I have compared the nature of large complex programs to open systems. Reflecting back, classical project management theory was very much based on closed systems thinking and early applications of systems thinking to projects and engineering was also very much based on closed systems thinking.
This is analogous to the closed systems of Newton and Einstein’s correction of his original General Theory of Relativity through the introduction of the cosmological constant to close a system which he believed behaved mechanistically and not expanding. In hindsight the cosmological constant was not necessary but does suggest some properties of the universe and became relevant in explaining an accelerating expansion of the universe. Subsequently, there was at least one special case where the deterministic nature of a closed system broke down when considering General Relativity suggesting at least some open nature to this system.
Systems nature of large complex projectsBob Prieto
This paper explores the system characteristics and behaviors of large engineering and construction programs with a particular focus on those that would be characterized as complex. It recognizes the interrelated and interacting elements of both programs and projects as they strive to form a complex whole. Large complex programs and projects are not well bounded as classical project management theory as espoused by Taylor, Gantt and Fayol would have us believe but rather behave in both independent and interconnected ways in a dynamic systems environment.
Large complex programs demonstrate the evolutionary nature of all complex systems; uncertainty; and emergence that comes with human actions and interactions. They struggle from insufficient situational awareness, treating the program to be more well-bounded than reality would suggest and using simplified models to understand the complexity inherent in execution. Best practices from project management literature were typically not derived from such environments and, worse, have fallen short on other large complex programs and projects.
In the engineering and construction industry governance needs and requirements exist at
multiple levels. These include:
• Governmental and industry level governance (laws, regulations, codes, standards)
• Enterprise level (encompassing social (stakeholder), political, economic (market,
shareholder, financial institutions), cultural (corporate and national/local),
technological)
• Portfolio and programs
• Project
This paper focuses on the portfolio and program level, collectively referred to as program in
this paper.
Strengthen outcome based capital project deliveryBob Prieto
Over the course of my career I have looked at a number of underperforming mega-projects. In every instance there was a common element of underperformance, the lack of clarity around the strategic business outcomes to be accomplished. Conversely, some of the best performing projects exhibited high clarity of recognized and shared outcomes.
This paper looks at the imperative to continue the shift to outcomes based contracts versus more traditional output based contracting forms. This shift is discussed from the perspective of the engineering and construction industry in the United States but draws upon the experience in other countries and other sectors.
Today’s infrastructure and facilities are “smart”. At least that is our objective as we seek to enhance lifecycle performance and capital efficiency. These “smart” facilities transcend any given sector and bring new challenges to the engineering and construction industry. In some ways our more traditional projects are today outcomes focused or capabilities delivering IT projects with bits of concrete and steel wrapped around them!
This “smart” focus is not limited to just a technology and systems dimension but goes further, demanding an increased and increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG) focus as well. Together “smart” and ESG create a greatly expanded set of interfaces for program and project managers to manage.
Rework in Engineering & Construction ProjectsBob Prieto
This paper is focused on engineering and construction projects which will experience increased emphasis as nations increase their focus on economic stimulus and climate change. It deals narrowly with the inevitable rework these projects often experience and which contributes to the cost and schedule growth we all too often witness. The objective of this paper is to:
• Categorize rework factors into four broad categories – project, human, organizational and complexity
• Identify rework impacts not just on cost and schedule but importantly morale and trust.
• Recognize that strategies exist to reduce the potential for required rework
• Suggest four dozen control points.
In this paper I will attempt to:
• Outline some of the systems of systems challenges that we will likely face.
• Discuss the emergent nature of both the challenges as well as the potential resultant outcomes.
• Draw attention to some of the driving forces acting both on this system of systems as well as the national and sectoral programs that may emerge to respond to this challenge.
• Highlight some of the feedback loops which may exist or emerge from both apparent and hidden coupling.
• Discuss system of system risks, program risks and where our perceptions and appetite for such risks may change over time.
• Outline some particular challenges for program managers as they are engaged in addressing this challenge.
A growing world requires improved and expanded infrastructure. Juxtapose that with the need for massive public investment driven by pandemic created economic weakness and the prospects for significant investment in infrastructure is improved, but as history has taught us not necessarily assured.
We have been through other infrastructure stimulus programs focused on so-called shovel ready projects and have been disappointed. But whether we define them as “shovel ready” or otherwise we need infrastructure projects, especially the largest of them, to be successful.
In this paper we will look at common reasons large scale infrastructure projects fail and importantly suggest some strategies and tactics to improve their success rate.
This paper builds on my beliefs that the prevailing theory of project management has failed us with respect to large complex projects. I have written extensively on this including highlighting that the assumptions of Gantt and Fayol fall short at scale and complexity. In this paper I examine the successes that underpin modern project management theory and seek to understand how the resulting approach to project management has failed to deliver comparable successes with regularity. As I explored these questions, I sought to understand the unique characteristics of the Atlas and Polaris missile programs; the subsequent institutionalization of the perceived success factors; and importantly, did perception and reality align. In other words, have we made an incomplete set of assumptions and institutionalized them?
Impact of correlation on risks in programs and projects Bob Prieto
One of the most under considered elements of cost and schedule risk is the correlation that exists within various WBS elements of a project or across projects comprising a program. Failure to adequately consider correlation between various activities and projects compounds the impact of other factors present in large complex projects.
This paper looks at the special case of decision making under uncertainty. The relationship between uncertainty and complexity is explored as is their joint relationship with large complex projects. The importance of getting these projects well founded from an ability to manage uncertainty is discussed and the aspects of these strong foundations is described
Post Dorian Engineering & Construction in the BahamasBob Prieto
As the task of recovery and rebuilding in the Bahamas post hurricane Dorian begins, it is important to understand that it cannot be business as usual. The increasing frequency and severity of hurricanes, driven by global climate change, cannot be ignored. Building codes will have to be further strengthened and development in coastal areas rethought.
Debating project decisions in an ai enabled environmentBob Prieto
I had the opportunity to watch the first debate between AI powered IBM Debater and a recognized human expert debater. I will not spoil the outcome for those who have not yet watched the debate but I will underscore one key aspect - all learned more about both sides of the position as a result of the debate.
We have seen a construct for the management of large
complex projects laid out in the earlier chapters. In these chapters we will simply lay out some of the main concepts and
considerations for a practitioner. Each of these can be more
extensively developed.
In the world of physics, classical theory breaks down at
scale. Conventional project management theory similarly
seems to break down at scale. The theoretical construct I
have been building to in this book is very much focused on this
project realm where scale and complexity rule.
In developing this theoretical construct I have essentially
considered three simple hypotheses, the first of which is:
Large complex projects are not well served by
conventional project management theory and
practice.
This hypothesis was demonstrated at the outset of this
book and the differential behavior between large and
traditionally scaled projects has been previously noted.
The second hypothesis considered relates to the Theory of
Management as applied to the management of projects. In
simplest terms this hypothesis says:
- The Theory of Project Management does not draw
fully on the richness of the Theory of Management
This hypothesis is demonstrated as we explored the
extensions of the Theory of Management to address chaos and
complexity and the more limited extensions of project
management theory.
The third and final hypothesis we considered focused on
the Theory of Projects, positing:
Large complex projects have significantly different
attributes than the more traditional projects which
comprise the basis for classical project management
theory
This chapter summarizes various aspects of large
projects and provides a foundation to consider what a new
Theory of Project Management for large complex projects may
look like.
In this chapter we will look at a few of the project attributes
that we observe in large complex projects and suggest they
may serve as a basis for a neo-classical Theory of Large
Complex Projects.
Theory of Management of Large Complex Projects - Chapter 7Bob Prieto
The world of large complex projects is challenging to say the least with a majority of these projects significantly under performing. It is this weak performance regime that underpins the key premise of "Theory of Management of Large Complex Projects" – project management theory as it currently exists and is applied to large complex projects falls short, significantly short, of what these projects require.
I have decided to serialize this book for the benefit of those interested in better understanding and improving project performance. If you are interested in purchasing a copy of the 400 page paperback you may click on http://www.lulu.com/us/en/shop/bob-prieto/theory-of-management-of-large-complex-projects/paperback/product-22342232.html
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptxEduSkills OECD
Francesca Gottschalk from the OECD’s Centre for Educational Research and Innovation presents at the Ask an Expert Webinar: How can education support child empowerment?
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxPavel ( NSTU)
Synthetic fiber production is a fascinating and complex field that blends chemistry, engineering, and environmental science. By understanding these aspects, students can gain a comprehensive view of synthetic fiber production, its impact on society and the environment, and the potential for future innovations. Synthetic fibers play a crucial role in modern society, impacting various aspects of daily life, industry, and the environment. ynthetic fibers are integral to modern life, offering a range of benefits from cost-effectiveness and versatility to innovative applications and performance characteristics. While they pose environmental challenges, ongoing research and development aim to create more sustainable and eco-friendly alternatives. Understanding the importance of synthetic fibers helps in appreciating their role in the economy, industry, and daily life, while also emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and innovation.
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic ImperativePeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Welcome to TechSoup New Member Orientation and Q&A (May 2024).pdfTechSoup
In this webinar you will learn how your organization can access TechSoup's wide variety of product discount and donation programs. From hardware to software, we'll give you a tour of the tools available to help your nonprofit with productivity, collaboration, financial management, donor tracking, security, and more.
Biological screening of herbal drugs: Introduction and Need for
Phyto-Pharmacological Screening, New Strategies for evaluating
Natural Products, In vitro evaluation techniques for Antioxidants, Antimicrobial and Anticancer drugs. In vivo evaluation techniques
for Anti-inflammatory, Antiulcer, Anticancer, Wound healing, Antidiabetic, Hepatoprotective, Cardio protective, Diuretics and
Antifertility, Toxicity studies as per OECD guidelines
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was a period of radical social and political upheaval in France. It marked the decline of absolute monarchies, the rise of secular and democratic republics, and the eventual rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. This revolutionary period is crucial in understanding the transition from feudalism to modernity in Europe.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkTechSoup
Dive into the world of AI! Experts Jon Hill and Tareq Monaur will guide you through AI's role in enhancing nonprofit websites and basic marketing strategies, making it easy to understand and apply.
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptxtimhan337
Personal development courses are widely available today, with each one promising life-changing outcomes. Tim Han’s Life Mastery Achievers (LMA) Course has drawn a lot of interest. In addition to offering my frank assessment of Success Insider’s LMA Course, this piece examines the course’s effects via a variety of Tim Han LMA course reviews and Success Insider comments.