The document discusses the regional impact of Russia's oil and gas sectors. It analyzes whether resource-rich Russian regions experience "Dutch disease" effects, where natural resource abundance negatively impacts other industries. The authors test two hypotheses - that industries with higher returns to scale and those that are less open internationally will be more disadvantaged in resource-rich regions. While initial regressions do not find supportive evidence, non-parametric estimations using original industry data suggest some industries may experience negative effects, warranting further investigation into potential Dutch disease impacts within Russia.
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing buoyant in May
* Exports withstand geopolitical circumstances
* Growth trends in lending stabilize
"In Focus":
* Overproduction of economists and lawyers in Latvia? Let's debunk this myth, autori: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs and Kārlis Vilerts
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations
Speaker: Elena Shadrina, Associate Professor, Waseda University
Presentation: What to Expect for Russia-Japan Relations: Contemplation against a Backdrop of Social and Economic Situation in Russia
This paper analyses the effect of the EU enlargement process on income convergence among regions in the EU and in the Eastern neighbourhood of the EU. The data used is NUTS II regions in the EU and Oblasts' of Russia over the period 1996-2004. The estimation techniques used take into account both regional and spatial heterogeneity. The main findings are that the regional income differences are reduced within EU15. The income convergence within the EU is mainly driven by reductions in the differences across countries rather than by a reduction in regional differences within countries. When differences in initial conditions in the regions are controlled for by fixed regional effects there are strong evidences of convergence among regions in all studied country groups.
Authored by: Fredrik Wilhelmsson
Published in 2009
Latvijas Bankas "Monthly Newsletter", 10/2016Latvijas Banka
"Highlights":
* Substantial increase in high technology sectors
* Inflation is rising, but to a large extent owing to last year's developments
* External trade in August testifies to the power of Latvian cereal exports
"In Focus":
* #reformasLV or why Latvijas Banka cares about education and healthcare?, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing buoyant in May
* Exports withstand geopolitical circumstances
* Growth trends in lending stabilize
"In Focus":
* Overproduction of economists and lawyers in Latvia? Let's debunk this myth, autori: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs and Kārlis Vilerts
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations
Speaker: Elena Shadrina, Associate Professor, Waseda University
Presentation: What to Expect for Russia-Japan Relations: Contemplation against a Backdrop of Social and Economic Situation in Russia
This paper analyses the effect of the EU enlargement process on income convergence among regions in the EU and in the Eastern neighbourhood of the EU. The data used is NUTS II regions in the EU and Oblasts' of Russia over the period 1996-2004. The estimation techniques used take into account both regional and spatial heterogeneity. The main findings are that the regional income differences are reduced within EU15. The income convergence within the EU is mainly driven by reductions in the differences across countries rather than by a reduction in regional differences within countries. When differences in initial conditions in the regions are controlled for by fixed regional effects there are strong evidences of convergence among regions in all studied country groups.
Authored by: Fredrik Wilhelmsson
Published in 2009
Latvijas Bankas "Monthly Newsletter", 10/2016Latvijas Banka
"Highlights":
* Substantial increase in high technology sectors
* Inflation is rising, but to a large extent owing to last year's developments
* External trade in August testifies to the power of Latvian cereal exports
"In Focus":
* #reformasLV or why Latvijas Banka cares about education and healthcare?, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing output continues to rise despite weak demand
* Latvian exports sluggish in complex circumstances
* Inflation starting to go up
"In Focus":
Macroeconomic balance maintained in 2016, supply side should be strengthened in 2017, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
The Big IF... Stress-testing BREXIT with combined performance and risk analyticsStatPro Group
EU referendum. UK votes to leave or remain. How large asset management firms need to prepare for a possible Brexit with combined performance and risk analytics.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2016Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
A piaci konszenzusnál erősebben, az OTP Bank Elemzési Központjának előrejelzésénél gyengébben alakult az első negyedéves GDP. Az adat megerősítette az OTP elemzőinek az idei év egészére vonatkozó 4%-os növekedési várakozását, a kockázatok felfelé mutatnak.
"Highlights":
* 2016 passed in expactations of investment and in the environment of weak external demand
* Wages grew at a slower rate last year
* Current account recorded a surplus of 369.5 million euro or 1.6% of GDP in 2016
"In Focus":
* Foreign direct investment globally and in Latvia, autore: Santa Bērziņa
The main goal of this research was identifying non-resource non-energy goods with the highest
export potential for export to China from all the variety and complexity of the product range that Russia is able
to export. Under the new bilateral cooperation framework Russia is able to unleash its export potential and
effectively diversify its exports to China, while China - to receive a profitable supplier for the long term.
Highlights:
- Broad-based growth drives GDP acceleration
- Inflation has reached its upswing potential
- Increase in external demand accelerates external trade
In Focus:
- "The importance of high value added services exports is growing for Latvia's economy" by Linda Vecgaile
Zemtsov. REGIONAL FACTORS OF ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY IN RUSSIAStepan Zemtsov
The purpose of the research was to identify regional factors of entrepreneurial activity in Russia in 1998-2014 and its relationship with regional development
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing output continues to rise despite weak demand
* Latvian exports sluggish in complex circumstances
* Inflation starting to go up
"In Focus":
Macroeconomic balance maintained in 2016, supply side should be strengthened in 2017, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
The Big IF... Stress-testing BREXIT with combined performance and risk analyticsStatPro Group
EU referendum. UK votes to leave or remain. How large asset management firms need to prepare for a possible Brexit with combined performance and risk analytics.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2016Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
A piaci konszenzusnál erősebben, az OTP Bank Elemzési Központjának előrejelzésénél gyengébben alakult az első negyedéves GDP. Az adat megerősítette az OTP elemzőinek az idei év egészére vonatkozó 4%-os növekedési várakozását, a kockázatok felfelé mutatnak.
"Highlights":
* 2016 passed in expactations of investment and in the environment of weak external demand
* Wages grew at a slower rate last year
* Current account recorded a surplus of 369.5 million euro or 1.6% of GDP in 2016
"In Focus":
* Foreign direct investment globally and in Latvia, autore: Santa Bērziņa
The main goal of this research was identifying non-resource non-energy goods with the highest
export potential for export to China from all the variety and complexity of the product range that Russia is able
to export. Under the new bilateral cooperation framework Russia is able to unleash its export potential and
effectively diversify its exports to China, while China - to receive a profitable supplier for the long term.
Highlights:
- Broad-based growth drives GDP acceleration
- Inflation has reached its upswing potential
- Increase in external demand accelerates external trade
In Focus:
- "The importance of high value added services exports is growing for Latvia's economy" by Linda Vecgaile
Zemtsov. REGIONAL FACTORS OF ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY IN RUSSIAStepan Zemtsov
The purpose of the research was to identify regional factors of entrepreneurial activity in Russia in 1998-2014 and its relationship with regional development
Zemtsov et al. Determinants of Russian regional innovation output Stepan Zemtsov
Spending on innovation increased annually in the 2000s in Russia’s regions, but innovation productivity varies greatly between regions. In the current climate of sanctions between Russia and Western countries and limitations on international technology transfer, there is a growing need to analyse the factors influencing regional innovation.
Previous empirical studies have found that the key factor of the growth of regional innovation is greater spending on research and development (R&D), thus confirming the main assumptions of a knowledge production function model.
Our research show that the quality of human capital, as measured by the number of economically active urban citizens with a higher education (the so-called creative class) has the greatest influence on the number of potentially commercializable patents in regions of Russia. Other significant factors were spending on acquisition of equipment, which indicates a high rate of wear and tear of Russian machinery, and spending on basic research, which creates the foundation for developing new technologies.
Russia’s innovation system has a ‘centre-periphery’ structure that favours the migration of highly qualified researchers to leading regions; proximity to such regions negatively influences innovation levels of the sending regions. However, at the same time, we see significantly fewer limitations on knowledge spillovers in the form of patents and – in this case – proximity to the ‘centres’ is a positive factor.
Sources of country-sector productivity growth: total factor productivity and ...SPINTAN
Sources of country-sector productivity growth: total factor productivity and intangible capital in the EU15 and the US. Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference. July 2016. Thessaloniki
OECD Regional Outlook 2016 and related researchOECD Governance
Presentation of OECD Regional Outlook 2016 and related research made at the Seminar on "Innovations and challenges in the management of a regional policy, held in Bratislava, Slovak Republic, 22 February 2017. Presentation by Joaquim Oliveira Martins, Regional Development Policy Division, OECD.
More information: www.oecd.org/gov/regional-policy/innovations-and-challenges.htm
Does regional innovation performance affect fast-growing firms in Russia?Stepan Zemtsov
The main object of the presentation is endogenous (intra-firm) and exogenous (regional) factors, which determine the share and the growth rates of fast-growing firms in Russian regions
Innovation support and economic development at the regional level: panel data...Jan Huňady
Presentation of research paper.
Publication is available at:
https://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2017/10-3/11
Abstract: The paper deals with the problem of innovation support and economic development at the regional level. The innovation potential still differs significantly among the EU regions. Perhaps the key factor determining innovation potential and performance of a region is R&D expenditure. The main aim of the paper is to test the potential relationship between gross domestic expenditure on R&D and economic development of the regions. Our dataset consists of the data on the regions of four Visegrad countries during the period of 2001-2014. We assume the existence of non-linear relationship and expect that R&D expenditures are significantly lower in less developed regions. Using the panel Granger causality and panel regression analysis based on these data, we provide insight into the potential relationship between regional economic development measured in terms of GDP per capita and investments in R&D controlling for the number of R&D employees. Our results strongly suggest that higher regional GDP per capita is associated with higher regional gross domestic expenditure on R&D (GERD) per inhabitant. GERD per capita appears to be exponentially rising with regional GDP per capita. We have also found significant regional disparities in terms of innovation performance.
Regional development policy in OECD countriesOECDregions
Presentation on Regional Development Policy in OECD countries, evidence and policy, made at the launch of the Regional Development Program of the University of Southern Denmark. Presentation by Paulo Veneri, Territorial Analysis and Statistics, OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Local Development and Tourism.
More information: http://www.oecd.org/cfe/regional-policy/
Positive effects of cluster policy such as the increase of new cluster initiatives (out of the supported ones) suggest the importance of long-standing cluster support programs. Not only allocation of funds, but also legitimation of relevant regional clustering initiatives and policies
Several specific support programmes can turn to be more effective, than a holistic one, which “addresses all the issues of all clusters”. Specific cluster programs with different design depending on particular industry (50+ according to Porter and ECO) / group of industries?
Policy traditions employed by different ministries is more influential for support programmes design than country or cluster features. Openness between different ministries and mutual learning is crucial to overcome possible path dependencies of current policy traditions
Cluster mapping is worth even greater consideration. Regional experimentation in industrial policy need not be limited; it is the risks distribution that need to be optimized (the less clustering potential is feasible, the more private or/and regional co-investment is required). Basis for enhancing interregional collaboration between CI
Services (including KIBS), creative and cultural industries can be underestimated as full-fledged regional development priorities and cluster policy addressee. (BUT: cluster policy efficiency could be industry-related)
Conference on the knowledge base for research and innovation policy by Andrew...innovationoecd
On March 2, Andrew Wyckoff, Director for Science, Technology and Innovation at the OECD, presented the OECD’s analysis of what future research and innovation policy will look like. A number of foresight analyses conducted in a Norwegian and Nordic context were also presented.
Presented by Anastasia Luzgina during the conference "Belarus at the crossroads: The complex role of sanctions in the context of totalitarian backsliding" on April 23, 2024.
Presented by Erlend Bollman Bjørtvedt during the conference "Belarus at the crossroads: The complex role of sanctions in the context of totalitarian backsliding" on April 23, 2024.
Presented by Dzimtry Kruk during the conference "Belarus at the crossroads: The complex role of sanctions in the context of totalitarian backsliding" on April 23, 2024.
Presented by Lev Lvovskiy during the conference "Belarus at the crossroads: The complex role of sanctions in the context of totalitarian backsliding" on April 23, 2024.
Presented by Chloé Le Coq, Professor of Economics, University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas, Economics and Law Research Center (CRED), during SITE 2023 Development Day conference.
This year’s SITE Development Day conference will focus on the Russian war on Ukraine. We will discuss the situation in Ukraine and neighbouring countries, how to finance and organize financial support within the EU and within Sweden, and how to deal with the current energy crisis.
This year’s SITE Development Day conference will focus on the Russian war on Ukraine. We will discuss the situation in Ukraine and neighbouring countries, how to finance and organize financial support within the EU and within Sweden, and how to deal with the current energy crisis.
The (Ce)² Workshop is organised as an initiative of the FREE Network by one of its members, the Centre for Economic Analysis (CenEA, Poland) together with the Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (CeMMAP, UK). This will be the seventh edition of the workshop which will be held in Warsaw on 27-28 June 2022.
The (Ce)2 workshop is organised as an initiative of the FREE Network by one of its members, the Centre for Economic Analysis (CenEA, Poland) together with the Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (CeMMAP, UK). This will be the seventh edition of the workshop which will be held in Warsaw on 27-28 June 2022.
The (Ce)2 workshop is organised as an initiative of the FREE Network by one of its members, the Centre for Economic Analysis (CenEA, Poland) together with the Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (CeMMAP, UK). This will be the seventh edition of the workshop which will be held in Warsaw on 27-28 June 2022.
The (Ce)2 workshop is organised as an initiative of the FREE Network by one of its members, the Centre for Economic Analysis (CenEA, Poland) together with the Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (CeMMAP, UK). This will be the seventh edition of the workshop which will be held in Warsaw on 27-28 June 2022.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdfcoingabbar
Introducing BONKMILLON - The Most Bonkers Meme Coin Yet
Let's be real for a second – the world of meme coins can feel like a bit of a circus at times. Every other day, there's a new token promising to take you "to the moon" or offering some groundbreaking utility that'll change the game forever. But how many of them actually deliver on that hype?
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
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How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
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Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
Yes of course, you can easily start mining pi network coin today and sell to legit pi vendors in the United States.
Here the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
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Managing marketing information to gain customer insights
Presentation by Chloé Le Coq, Associate Professor at SITE-SSE
1. REGIONAL IMPACT OF
THE RUSSIAN ENERGY SECTOR
SITE-UI-FOI conference
The Russian Economy — Stagnation or Modernization?
13 June, 2017
Chloé Le Coq
SITE
Stockholm School of Economics
Elena Paltseva
SITE
Stockholm School of Economics
New Economic School, Russia
Natalya Volchkova
New Economic School, Russia
CEFIR
1
2. INTRODUCTION
Old question: Are natural resources good for a country?
Resource curse: a robust negative relationship between a country’s share of
primary exports in GDP and its subsequent economic growth
2
3. INTRODUCTION
Old question: Are natural resources good for a country?
§ Potential explanations for negative relationship between natural resources
and economic development
– Political economy reasons : resource endowments distort political incentives
– Pure economic factors :
Exposure to commodity price swings
Dutch disease (deindustrialization due to expansion of natural resource)
3
4. OIL AND GAS RESOURCES IN RUSSIAN REGIONS
NB: darker blue => larger share of oil and gas in the growth regional product4
5. PURPOSE
Our focus: the impact of hydrocarbon resources within a country
– More specifically,
• consider the regional impact of resources
• go beyond the country-wide political economy component
Research question: Regional impact of the Russian oil and gas sectors
– Well-known discussion about the importance of the energy sector for Russia
• importance for the economy correlation between oil price and GDP (Becker, 2016),
• but also as a political tool energy security for EU (Le Coq and Paltseva, 2012),….
– But must less focus on energy resources within different regions across Russia
• test the theory of Dutch disease in a cross-region study
5
6. DUTCH DISEASE IN RUSSIA: PERCEPTION
• Dutch Disease – very popular term widely used in Russia over the last decade
• By journalists…
• By authorities:
• Russia learned well a lesson of “Dutch Disease” (Vladimir Putin, July 6, 2006)
• Dutch Disease is weakening in Russia (Dmitry Medvedev, Oct 2016)
• Dutch disease is over in Russia (Anton Siluanov, Minister of Finance of RF, Feb
2015)
= > Justifies government investments in industry, despite their inefficiencies
• “Russia needs to diversify the economy, to make it more innovative.
For this we established the Investment Fund of Russian Federation” (V. Putin, 2006).
6
7. THE DUTCH DISEASE (DD) EFFECT
Spending effect: Resource windfall → extra income → non-tradable good
(services) relative prices ↑ (=appreciation of real exchange rate)! higher
wages in service sector → labor shifts from manufacturing to services and
(possibly) resource sector → de-industrialization
Factor movement effect: Resource windfall → increase in marginal product
of labor in resource sector → reallocation of labor to the resource sector
from other sectors
=> Both effects contribute to the decline of output in the Tradable sector
7
8. MIXED EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON DUTCH DISEASE
• Supportive evidence:
– Resource boom causes a decline in manufacturing exports and an expansion of
service sector (e.g. Harding and Venables (2010) or Sachs and Warner (1995))
– Spatafora and Warner (1995): positive effect of the terms of trade shock on domestic
investments in non-tradable sector
• Non-supportive evidence
– Resource boom does NOT cause a decline in manufacturing exports and an
expansion of service sector (e.g. Sala-i-Martin and Subramanian (2003)).
– Time series approach:
• Spatafora and Warner (1995): no significant contraction in manufacturing or
agriculture sectors (approximation of tradable sector in the model) in response to
a rise in oil-prices
• Hutchison (1994): no tradeoff between development of the energy sector and
subsequent developments in manufacturing
– Leonov and Volchkova (2013): similar methodology but cross-country data. Find no
evidence of Dutch Disease.
8
9. OUR APPROACH
Potential reasons for mixed evidence for DD:
The weak empirical evidence for DD effect may be explained by, e.g.:
• omitted variable biases (e.g., some institutional/policy/economics features
influence this correlation)
• endogeneity of resource wealth variable (e.g. exports/GDP), etc.
Our approach:
• abstract from across-countries differences, thereby weakening the omitted
variable bias issue
• That is, look at the impact of resources above and beyond common
institutional/policy component => study at a regional level
– Institutional/political economy/policy component is (arguably) relatively similar
across Russian regions
9
10. RELATED LITERATURE
• DD literature (already mentioned)
• Alexeev and Chernyavskiy (2014): mineral-rich regions are
significantly richer than the other regions in Russia
• Significant impact of fracking technology in US on
employment and economic outcome at the county and regional
level : Maniloff and Mastromonaco (2014) and Feyrer, Mansur
and Sacerdote (2016)
=> We look at how the industrial sectors change
10
11. HYPOTHESIS 1
Following Leonov and Volchkova (2013):
Suppose there is/are both resource reallocation and/or spending effects such
that the factors should outflow from manufacturing sector.
=> The manufacturing industries with higher return to scale should suffer more
Hypothesis 1
The manufacturing industries with higher return to scale should be in
disadvantage in resource rich regions compared to resource poor regions.
11
12. HYPOTHESIS 2
Following Leonov and Volchkova (2013):
Suppose there is a spending effect. Then resources move from manufacture to
non-tradable sector because of relative price changes.
=> The manufacturing sectors with less scope for price adjustment should
suffer more.
=> Less open sectors have more room for price adjustment
Hypothesis 2
The manufacturing industries with higher degree of “openness” should be in
disadvantage in resource rich region compared to resource poor region
12
13. EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK
Difference-and-Difference approach (as in Rajan and Zingales, 1998)
Assuming
(i) Ind A has higher return to scale than Ind B
(ii) Ind A is more open than Ind B
[Growth(Ind A) – Growth(Ind B)] in resource poor region
> [Growth(Ind A) – Growth(Ind B)] in resource rich region
13
14. MODEL
Growth i,k= Const +αk+ βi+ δ ·Xik+
+ γ·Sensitivityi·RESk+ εi,k
where
Growthi,k : average annual real growth rates of sector i in region k
βi: industry (dummy)
αk: country (dummy)
Xik : share of sector i in manufacturing production of region k at the beginning
of period
RESk : resource richness of region k
Sensitivity:
(1): Sensitivity= Degree of return to scale in sector i, if γ<0 => H1 is supported
(2): Sensitivity=Degree of openness in sector i, if γ<0 => H2 is supported
14
15. DATA: REGIONAL HYDROCARBON RESOURCE
ABUNDANCE
• Our variable:
𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑡ℎ
𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡
=
𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 ∗ 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒
𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡
• Production: Annual oil and natural gas production of region, 2006-2014
– Source: Tax Office of RF, form 5-NDPI (Extraction Tax statistics)
• Price: world oil/gas price (source: WB commodity prices with annualized version)
• Gross regional product (source: RF Federal state statistical service)
Remark: The resulting statistics may sometimes exceed 100% (as we take world prices,
and not domestic ones, at which GRP is calculated)
• We believe this is not a problem
– Systematic bias across regions
– We check for robustness, by separating regions into resource rich (>5% of GRP from
oil/gas), and resource-poor, and using this categorical variable instead of continuous one
15
16. DATA: INDUSTRIAL CHARACTERISTICS
• Return to scale in industry:
W.E. Diewert and K.J. Fox (2004), “Returns to Scale, Technical Progress and Monopolistic Markups”
(Based on US data, 16 industries, 1950-2000)
• Openness of industry: the industry Share of Industry’s World Export in
Industry’s World Output (OECD data, 22 countries)
• Av. annual real growth rates of subsectors of manuf. sector
(at the regional level for 2006-2014, RF Federal state statistical service)
– Constructed from monthly indexes of sectoral production
– Some data missing => “reconstruct” the data for narrower subsectors
• Share of sector in total manufacturing production in 2006
(RF Federal state statistical service)
– volume of own shipped production
16
17. RESULTS 1: INTERACTION WITH RETURNS TO SCALE
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Dependent variable: average annual index of sectoral output
VARIABLES
Resource wealth - continous
variable
Resource wealth - dummy
(rich >5% of GRP)
Initial share of sectoral output -0.0400 -0.0396 -0.0399 -0.0417 -0.0392 -0.0409
(0.0686) (0.0690) (0.0689) (0.0693) (0.0686) (0.0692)
Returns to scale*Oil wealth/GRP 0.0707 0.0386
(0.0717) (0.0504)
Returns to scale*Natural gas
wealth/GRP 0.0221*** -0.0046
(0.0045) (0.0595)
Returns to scale*Oil + gas
wealth/GRP 0.0272** 0.0385
(0.0129) (0.0476)
Constant -0.1085*** -0.1088*** -0.1089*** -0.1083*** -0.1084*** -0.1084***
(0.0273) (0.0273) (0.0273) (0.0273) (0.0273) (0.0273)
Sector fixed effect YES YES YES YES YES YES
Region fixed effect YES YES YES YES YES YES
Observations 1,224 1,224 1,224 1,224 1,224 1,224
R-squared 0.1626 0.1623 0.1625 0.1623 0.1621 0.1623
Standard errors clustered at regional level in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
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18. RESULTS 1: SUMMARY AND NEXT STEP
• Hypothesis is not supported by data: no indication of Dutch Disease
(if anything, the opposite)
• Could it be the problem of our data modification?
– Recall that we “recreated” data for some of the subindustries
• Let’s do the non-parametric test on the original data and compare the
outcomes
Growth i,k=Const +αk+ βi+ δ ·Xik+ ζ·Sectori·RESk+ εi,k
where Sectori is dummy variable for sector I
– For the sake of time we show graphical evidence only
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19. RESULTS 1A: NON-PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION AS A
ROBUSTNESS CHECK
food products
wood products, except furniture
textiles and apparel
other manufacturing
other chemicals
electric machinery and professional equipment
rubber and plastic
primary and fabricated metals
transport equipment
paper and publishing
class and products
-.06-.04-.020.02
Non-parametricsensitivitytoOil&Gas
.4 .6 .8 1 1.2
Return to scale
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21. RESULTS 2A: NON-PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION
rubber and plastic
wood products
other manufacturing
class and products
textiles and apparel
food products
paper and publishing
other chemicals
primary and fabricated metals
transport equipment
electric machinery and professional equipment
-.06-.04-.020.02
Non-parametricsensitivitytoOil&Gas
.4 .6 .8 1 1.2 1.4
Openness
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22. CONCLUSIONS FROM EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
• There is no indication of Dutch Disease for Russian regions:
Neither of our hypotheses is supported by data
– no matter what kind of resource wealth variable we use, continuous or
categorical
– non-parametric robustness check is in line with the main test for returns-
to-scale, while less so for the openness…
• Why?
– Poor data?
• Data quality?
• Time period?
– Theory is wrong?
– Theory is correct but additional mechanisms in place?
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23. POLICY IMPLICATION OF OUR RESULTS
• More generally, is there a resource curse in Russian regions?
– Our study: no Dutch disease
– Alexeev and Chernyavskiy (2014): mineral wealth has not significantly affected
regional economic growth
– Becker (2016) : statistical relationship between Russian GDP and international oil
prices.
• Our study suggests: more emphasis on policy measures aimed at other
reasons for Resource Curse besides Dutch Disease
– Political economy of rent redistribution – fight against corruption (Gylfason 2001),
competition enhancement (Auty 2001), property rights protection (Guriev,
Kolotilin and Sonin 2007)
– Timely reform implementation (Sachs and Warner 1999)
– Human capital development (Suslova and Volchkova 2007)
– Transparency, check & balances (Egorov, Guriev and Sonin, 2007)
– Volatility of government expenditures (Ramey and Ramey 1994)
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